Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review 2001

General inquiries regarding the 2001 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review should be directed to:

Ministry of Finance
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Toronto, Ontario M7A 1Z1
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© Queen's Printer for Ontario, 2001
ISSN 1496-2829

Ce document est disponible en français sous le titre :
Perspectives économiques et revue financière de l'Ontario de 2001



2002 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review

Table of Contents






Introduction

A strong economic foundation is helping Ontario weather the current downturn in the world economy. The prospects for a return to healthy and sustainable economic growth remain solid.

Worldwide economic growth slowed considerably in the first half of 2001. The resurgence expected for the North American economy in the second half of the year was set back by the terrorist attacks of September 11.

These global forces have had an impact on Ontario. Our economy is expected to grow but at a slower rate than forecast in the 2001 Budget. On average, private-sector forecasters now expect growth of 1.1 per cent for Ontario this year and 1.3 per cent in 2002. For 2003, private-sector forecasters expect growth to accelerate to a strong pace of 4.3 per cent.

While the current economic environment is difficult, over the past six years the government has put in place policies that will help to bring a rapid resumption of strong economic growth. Cutting taxes, balancing the budget, renewing infrastructure, investing in education, removing barriers to growth, and strengthening incentives to work, invest and innovate: all of these measures are reinforcing the foundation for a healthy economy and a rising standard of living.

Since 1995, strong leadership and effective management have returned the Province to a sound financial footing. Ontario now has more fiscal flexibility to face the challenge of a period of slower economic growth. The government balanced its budget for two consecutive years in 1999-2000 and 2000-01, the first time the Province has had back-to-back surpluses in more than half a century. Last year the Province paid down its debt by $3.1 billion, the largest repayment of debt in its history. Ontario is on track to record a third balanced budget in the current fiscal year.

The first section of this document discusses the performance and status of Ontario's economy. The second section discusses Ontario's economic outlook. The third section updates the Province's fiscal outlook. The final section reviews the policy framework that has contributed to Ontario's strong economic and fiscal outlook. A statistical appendix is also included.

A: Ontario's Economic Performance

Over the last six years, the government has worked to establish a solid basis for economic growth and a high standard of living by:

  • cutting taxes to create an economic environment that rewards hard work and entrepreneurship;

  • investing in infrastructure, innovation and education to enhance Ontario's attractiveness for investment and job creation;

  • eliminating unnecessary red tape to support business expansion; and

  • implementing a sound fiscal framework through balanced budgets, responsible spending and debt reduction.

These policies have helped to make Ontario a growth leader since 1995. Vigorous and balanced economic growth since 1996 allows Ontario to face the current slowdown from a position of strength.

  • Ontario's strong productivity growth provides the basis for rising living standards.

  • Ontario's diversified and innovative economy provides a healthy base even as key sectors face serious challenges.

  • Ontario's strong job creation record since 1995 provides confidence that the province's economic future will be equally bright. Men, women and youth have benefited, and employment has increased in all regions of the province.

  • Ontario's businesses and talented, well-educated labour force have been competing successfully in world markets and Ontario will benefit as those markets grow strongly in the medium term.

SAFETY AND PROSPERITY
"We will continue taking the strong action necessary to keep Ontario safe and prosperous. The people of Ontario expect their government to do everything possible to protect their families and ensure that our economy grows and creates jobs–we will meet their expectations."

Premier Mike Harris, 2001

"By working together with our colleagues in Ontario, we will overcome the tragedy and continue to create more jobs and opportunities on both sides of the border. Our close ties and strong economic links, along with the courageous and resilient spirit of our people, will prevail over this cowardly act of hatred."

New York Governor George Pataki, 2001

As a result of the strong growth and prudent fiscal planning since 1995, Ontario is better positioned than ever before to manage the economic impact of events such as the attacks of September 11. Following these tragic events, the government is taking further steps to protect Ontario's people and economy by:

  • proposing to accelerate to October 1, 2001 the personal and corporate income tax rate cuts and the capital tax deductions originally planned for January 1, 2002, including an increase in the small business income threshold to $280,000;

  • appointing Norman Inkster, retired commissioner of the RCMP, and retired Major-General Lewis MacKenzie as security advisers to the provincial government; and

  • investing over $30 million in Ontario's security through anti-terrorism and emergency management measures including a rapid-response unit of the Ontario Provincial Police to combat terrorist threats and an emergency management training centre at the Ontario Fire College.

To protect Ontario's trade and economic growth potential, the government called for the harmonization of rules and customs procedures with the United States and the creation of a common North American security perimeter.

Ontario Leads Economic Growth

Ontario's record of strong and broadly based economic growth positions the province to successfully face the current economic challenge. Ontario's real GDP grew by 26 per cent, an average of 4.7 per cent per year, over the 1996-2000 period. This was a dramatic turnaround from the slow growth of the early 1990s. Over this period, Ontario's growth was much stronger than that of any G-7 nation and was also the fastest-growing provincial economy in Canada.

Bar chart showing Ontario leading the G-7 countries in economic growth for the period of 1996-2000 in terms of average real GDP growth.
  • Strong domestic demand, supported by tax cuts and job creation, has been the main engine of economic growth. Consumer spending, accounting for 43.6 per cent of Ontario growth, and business investment, accounting for 22.9 per cent of growth, have played the leading roles.

  • Ontario's international and interprovincial trade performance has also been impressive. Both imports and exports have grown strongly over the last five years. Exports have increased by 43.6 per cent, while imports have grown by 42.3 per cent. Ontario's competitive export industries are well positioned to benefit from future growth in global demand.

Productivity Growth: Ontario Goes from Worst to First

Rising productivity is the only enduring way to achieve an improving standard of living. The broadest measure of an economy's productivity is the growth in real GDP per person. Since 1996, Ontario's growth has exceeded that of the rest of Canada, the United States, and the average of the industrialized countries. This is thanks to both strong job creation and rapid growth in output per worker.

Bar chart comparing Ontario with the rest of Canada and an industrial country average in terms of per cent change in real GDP per person to show that sound policies lead to strong productivity growth.
  • International economic studies show that cutting taxes on personal and business income leads to significant increases in long-run productivity growth.

  • Cutting income taxes invigorates an economy. It gives both entrepreneurs and employees the incentive to try harder to achieve success and earn higher incomes because they will be able to keep a larger part of what they earn. Lowering business taxes also leads to increased investment, higher productivity and higher incomes for Ontario workers.

  • Productivity gains result from investment in equipment, technology and knowledge; from innovation that creates new products and new ways of working; and from agile industry that continually seeks the best opportunities. These are the hallmarks of Ontario's economy.

A Foundation of Strong and Broadly Based Job Creation

Since September 1995, the Ontario economy has generated 824,200 net new jobs. The combination of effective policies and global economic growth led to record job creation of 558,700 for the province in the three years from 1998 to 2000. In response to a significant global slowdown, Ontario job creation has moderated to 106,300 in the first 10 months of 2001, compared to the same period a year ago.

Bar chart showing the number of jobs created in Ontario since September 1995.

Job prospects have improved right across the economy. Men, women and youth have all benefited, and employment has increased in all regions of the province.

  • Between 1998 and 2000, Ontario youth gained 113,200 net new jobs, more than in any other three-year period on record. The youth unemployment rate fell substantially, from 16.4 per cent in 1997 to 11.8 per cent in 2000. Despite the recent slowdown in the economy, youth continued to see positive job growth in the first 10 months of 2001, up by 6,700 from the same period a year ago.

  • Since September 1995, employment increased in all five of Ontario's regional economies: 472,400 net new jobs in the Greater Toronto Area; 182,900 in Central Ontario; 102,800 in Eastern Ontario; 75,100 in Southwestern Ontario; and 5,000 in Northern Ontario (regional figures are seasonally adjusted, three-month moving averages).

Diversified and Resilient Economy

Ontario's diversified industrial base produces a wide range of goods and services for both domestic and foreign markets. The province's positive economic climate provides a foundation of underlying strength and competitiveness for business in Ontario.

Bar chart showing that business and consumer industries are leading the job growth - comparing 1990-1995 to 1996-2001.
  • Low interest rates and tax cuts are helping to sustain domestic spending and production, despite the setback that industries such as telecommunication equipment have experienced. Consumer-oriented industries, such as retailing and construction, have been a major source of job growth since 1995.

  • Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) remain confident about Ontario's economic outlook. They are benefiting greatly from Ontario's tax cuts, its pro-growth business climate and the increase in domestic spending. SMEs have accounted for more than half of Ontario's job creation since 1995.

  • Through good times and bad, Ontario's manufacturing sector has continued to demonstrate its competitive edge. Since 1995, Ontario has outperformed all other jurisdictions in Canada and the United States in manufacturing job creation, with widespread gains in the automotive, electrical products, furniture and pharmaceutical industries.

Highly Educated Workforce Provides a Strong Skills Base

A skilled workforce is critical to Ontario's economic success in a constantly changing global environment.

Ontario has the highest share in the OECD of adults with completed post-secondary education, at 52 per cent. Post-secondary education includes university and college credentials, and college-based apprenticeship and training.

In university credentials alone, Ontario ranks third, behind the United States and Norway. Canada ranks fifth. In college education, apprenticeship and other training credentials, Canada and Ontario rank at the top.

Bar chart comparing Ontario to several OECD countries in term of adult post-secondary educational attainment in 1999 with Ontario leading at 52.2%.
  • The skills acquired by Ontario university and college graduates are being applied in the workplace. Surveys of Ontario graduates have found that six months after graduation in 1998, three-quarters of university and college graduates considered their work to be related to their program of study.

Welfare Decline Means More Self-Reliant Population

Welfare reforms have encouraged self-reliance by breaking through barriers that fostered dependence. A spirit of independence is important for promoting opportunities and economic growth.

Ontario Works, the Province's mandatory work-for-welfare program, gives participants the chance to upgrade their education, get job training and gain valuable work experience. At the same time, the welfare system remains a safety net for those who truly need it.

Bar chart showing the numbers that exiting from welfare from 1995 through 2001.
  • Welfare reforms, along with strong job growth, have driven Ontario's success in lowering welfare dependence every year since June 1995. The welfare rolls are now lower by more than 600,000 people, both adults and children.

  • This success in lowering the welfare caseload since 1995 is in sharp contrast to the experience in the 1980s when it grew even as the economic boom generated jobs and reduced unemployment.

Balancing the Budget

Disciplined fiscal policy resulting in balanced budgets and debt repayment means that Ontario can confront the fiscal impact of slower economic growth in 2001 from a position of strength and flexibility.

Bar chart showing the ongoing  commitment to and progress towards a balanced budget.

The government's November 1995 Fiscal and Economic Statement set out a Balanced Budget Plan of declining annual deficit targets, culminating in a balanced budget in 2000-01.

  • The government has overachieved its deficit and debt reduction targets in each of the past six years.

  • Ontario achieved a $668 million surplus in 1999-2000, and a $3.3 billion surplus in 2000-01. Ontario remains on track to balance the budget in 2001-02.

  • Net Provincial Debt was reduced by a record $3.1 billion in 2000-01, following a reduction of $1 billion in 1999-2000.

  • Passage in 1999 of the Taxpayer Protection Act and Balanced Budget Act will help ensure that future fiscal responsibility is maintained.

Section C reports on Ontario's fiscal performance in the current year, 2001-02.

B: Ontario's Economic Outlook

Ontario's economy is experiencing a slowdown, reflecting weaker global growth and the negative impact of the terrorist attacks on the United States. Sound economic policies will help Ontario through these difficult circumstances and provide a solid foundation for renewed healthy economic growth.

As in previous years, the fall economic outlook reports on the average of private-sector forecasts for the Ontario economy. These provide a good framework for our Budget consultations and planning. Ontario will present its prudent set of planning assumptions when a budget is introduced next spring.

Private-Sector Forecast for Ontario Economy
(Annual Average)
  1999 2000 2001p 2002p 2003p
Real GDP Growth (per cent) 7.4 5.3 1.1 1.3 4.3
Unemployment Rate (per cent) 6.3 5.7 6.3 7.1 6.6
CPI Inflation (per cent) 1.9 2.9 3.3 2.0 2.0

p=  private-sector survey average.
Sources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance and Ontario Finance Survey of Forecasts
(November 2001).

  • Private-sector economists expect economic growth to be moderate this year and next, with real GDP rising by 1.1 per cent in 2001 and 1.3 per cent in 2002.

  • Forecasters expect economic growth to climb to 4.3 per cent in 2003. A sharp reduction in interest rates, combined with cuts to personal and corporate income taxes and sound fiscal management, create a climate conducive to stronger growth.

Economic Growth to Rebound

Most private-sector forecasters expect growth to rebound strongly. A number of factors are expected to boost growth by mid-2002.

  • Low interest rates will reduce operating costs for business and encourage spending on consumer durables and home construction.

  • Tax cuts at the provincial and federal level will increase household take-home pay.

  • U.S. economic growth is expected to strengthen, reflecting the stimulus from tax cuts and increased defence and security spending.

  • A fall in oil and natural gas prices will free up household disposable income for other purposes and reduce business costs.

Bar chart showing the real GDP growth of Ontario for 1990-1995, 1996-2000, and projections for 2001 through 2003.

Near-Record Low Interest Rates Will Boost Growth

Interest rates are expected to remain low throughout 2002 and 2003. Faced with evidence of slower economic growth, the U.S. Federal Reserve began to reduce interest rates early in 2001. Rates were cut further immediately after September 11. As of early November, interest rates have been lowered by 400 basis points, including a reduction of 100 basis points following the terrorist attacks. The Bank of Canada has also responded, easing interest rates by 300 basis points so far this year. Lower borrowing costs are positive for households and businesses. They encourage spending on consumer durables and housing as well as business investment and job creation.

Bar chart showing the three month Canadian T-bill rate over a period from1990 to 2001 with projections to 2003.
  • The Canadian three-month treasury bill rate is currently near 2.3 per cent, the lowest level in 40 years. Private-sector forecasters expect the three-month treasury bill rate to fall further. As economic growth strengthens in mid-2002, interest rates are expected to rise.

Canadian Interest Rate Outlook
(Annual per cent)
  2000 2001
Jan-Oct
2001
November
2002p 2003p
3-month treasury bill rate 5.5 4.1 2.3 2.3 4.7
10-year government bonds 5.9 5.5 4.9 5.2 5.9

p=private-sector survey average.
Sources: Bank of Canada and Ontario Finance Financial Market Survey (November 2001).

Inflation Easing

Economic forecasters expect Ontario's CPI inflation rate to drop to 2.0 per cent in 2002 and 2003. The rise in inflation to 2.9 per cent in 2000 and 3.3 per cent in 2001 has largely been the result of the past rise in energy prices. Core CPI inflation (all items excluding food and energy) remains near the mid-point of the Bank of Canada's target range of one to three per cent.

Bar chart showing Ontario's consumer price inflation from 1990 through to projections for 2003.
  • In Ontario, the year-over-year CPI inflation rate was 3.1 per cent in September 2001. Removing the impact of energy and food prices, the CPI inflation rate would have been 2.5 per cent.

  • Crude oil prices, as measured by the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), have fallen by a third to $22 US per barrel recently. This has contributed to a nearly 15 cents per litre reduction in Ontario's average gasoline pump price since November 2000. Private-sector forecasters expect oil prices to be around $24 US by the end of October 2002 and to remain near the mid-point of OPEC's target range of $22 US to $28 US through 2003.

  • The core rate of CPI inflation has remained stable, averaging 2.3 per cent during the first nine months of 2001.

  • Ontario wage settlements have remained moderate, with base wages increasing an average of 2.2 per cent in 1999, 2.5 per cent in 2000 and 3.0 per cent during the first eight months of 2001.

Near-Term Job Creation Moderates

Ontario created a record 558,700 jobs during the 1998-2000 period, the strongest three-year period of job creation in the province's history. Slower economic growth globally has limited job creation in Ontario in 2001. Private-sector forecasters expect job creation to remain moderate through 2002 but to enjoy a healthy increase in 2003. Government policies supporting the incentive to work and invest have established a positive climate for strong job creation over the medium term.

Bar chart highlighting the average unemployment rate for Ontario for 1990-1995 and 1996-2001 with projections for 2001 to 2003.
  • Since September 1995, the Ontario economy has generated 824,200 net new jobs, or 48.1 per cent of the total job gains in Canada.

  • Recent months have seen a pause in Ontario's stellar job creation performance. Private-sector forecasters project annual job growth of up to 1.5 per cent for 2001, up to 0.9 per cent in 2002, and up to 2.7 per cent in 2003.

  • Private-sector forecasters expect the unemployment rate to rise from 6.3 per cent in 2001 to 7.1 per cent in 2002, and then fall to 6.6 per cent in 2003. The unemployment rate is expected to remain well below the 1990-95 experience when it averaged 9.3 per cent.

Tax Cuts and Low Interest Rates to Bolster Consumer Spending

The growth of consumer spending moderated in 2001, in part reflecting a pause from the high level of auto sales in previous years. The tragedies of September 11 caused a setback to consumer confidence and spending. As the economy recovers and people feel more secure, households will become more confident and spending patterns will return to normal. Consumer spending is expected to strengthen further over the next two years, supported by continuing tax cuts, income gains and low interest rates.

A graph showing that tax cuts boost real take-home pay  from 1992 to projections for 2003.
  • Ontario real take-home pay has risen 18.6 per cent since the provincial government began cutting taxes, much stronger than the 11.1 per cent increase seen in the rest of Canada during the same period.

  • Private-sector forecasters on average expect real disposable income to rise by 2.1 per cent in 2002, after a 2.6 per cent rise in 2001. Growth in real after-tax income is expected to accelerate to 3.9 per cent in 2003 as the economy strengthens and job gains improve.

  • Real consumer spending is expected to increase by 1.9 per cent in 2002, following a 1.4 per cent advance in 2001, according to private-sector forecasts. Growth in consumption is projected to pick up to 4.1 per cent in 2003, supported by stronger growth in real after-tax income.

Housing Outlook Solid

Ontario's housing market remains buoyant. Strong growth in after-tax income, a growing population and declining mortgage rates have encouraged home purchases and construction. Home resales are headed for their best year ever and housing starts are projected to reach levels not seen for more than a decade.

Bar chart showing the increase in Ontario housing starts from 1995 to 2000 with slightly declining projections for 2001 to 2003.

Private-sector economists expect housing starts to remain near current high levels, reaching 73,900 units this year, 71,000 in 2002 and 73,500 in 2003.

  • Housing remains very affordable. Monthly carrying costs for an average-price home in Ontario are currently about $1,007, much lower than their peak of $1,489 in 1990. Housing costs as a share of average after-tax household income have fallen sharply, from a high of 35.5 per cent in 1990 to 22.3 per cent in 2000.

  • Housing demand is being supported by strong population growth. Ontario accounted for more than 60 per cent of the nation's population growth last year, a gain of nearly 190,000. Ontario attracted almost 150,000 immigrants during the past year, a record high.

  • Mortgage rates are low and are expected to fall further. Five-year mortgage rates in early November were posted at 6.9 per cent, well below the recent peak of 8.75 per cent in May 2000.

  • The one-year mortgage rate is now at 4.9 per cent, compared to 8.3 per cent in May 2000.

  • First-time buyers of newly constructed homes have been encouraged by Ontario's Land Transfer Tax refund. Since its introduction in 1996, the rebate has helped more than 95,000 Ontarians purchase their first home.

Corporate Tax Cuts Support Investment

The government has proposed to accelerate corporate tax cuts planned for January 1, 2002. Low corporate taxes help make Ontario the best place in North America to do business, invest and create jobs.

A pair of bar charts showing both machinery and equipment investment and commercial and industrial construction are on the rise.

Strong investment boosts Ontario's productivity performance and enhances Ontario's competitive standing in the international economy. Because of the less certain business climate, firms are likely to be cautious in their investment spending plans in the near term. As growth accelerates through 2002 and 2003, investment spending is expected to rise sharply.

  • The value of Ontario business investment in machinery and equipment almost doubled in real terms between 1995 and 2000. Real investment in commercial and industrial construction rose by about 35 per cent over the same period.

  • The value of building permits issued by municipalities for total commercial, industrial and institutional construction projects rose by 6.1 per cent over the first eight months of 2001 from the corresponding period a year earlier.

Ontario Exports to Resume Growth

A return to healthy growth of the global economy will lead to rising Ontario exports. The slump in U.S. demand and the shock to the world economy from the events of September 11 have had a negative impact on Ontario's trade flows. However, Ontario's very competitive export industries are well positioned to benefit from the renewed growth in U.S. demand that tax cuts and lower interest rates will help generate.

Bar chart of the real growth in Ontario's imports and exports for 1990-1996, and 1997 through 2000 with further projections for 2001 to 2003.
  • Ontario's import and export growth over the 1990s partly reflects the increasing integration and rising regional specialization in the North American economy. The import content of our manufactured exports has been rising with this integration. Increased integration, specialization and investment in new technologies will make Ontario industries more efficient and productive.

  • The low value of the Canadian dollar has for the time-being reinforced Ontario industry's competitiveness in global markets. Over the longer term, rising productivity and reduced net indebtedness are expected to cause the Canadian dollar to strengthen.

  • To achieve the healthy growth in trade that private-sector forecasters expect, it will be necessary to ensure secure and efficient customs procedures with the United States.

  • Since 1997, net exports (exports minus imports) have accounted for less than one-third of Ontario's total economic growth. Strong net export performance has been complemented by rapidly expanding domestic demand, providing Ontario with dynamic, well-balanced economic growth. Domestic demand is expected to continue to play a major role in Ontario's economic development.

  • The volume of imports is expected to decline even more than exports in 2001, leading to an improvement in Ontario's trade balance. This reflects the fact that Ontario producers held large inventories of imported components at the beginning of the year, which they are reducing. Spending on capital equipment is also being reduced, and much of that equipment is imported.

Strong Growth Resumes in 2003

Slower global economic growth and the tragedies that occurred on September 11 are having an adverse impact on the economy. However, the essential conditions for stronger growth are in place. Business taxes are being cut. Personal income taxes have been reduced. Budgets are balanced. Interest rates are low.

Private-sector economists, on average, expect Ontario real GDP growth to accelerate, from 1.3 per cent in 2002 to 4.3 per cent in 2003. In 2003, job creation will be up, incomes will be rising and investment spending will be robust.

Bar chart that shows Ontario leading internationally in terms of real GDP growth for 2002 and  2003 in the view of the private sector economic outlook.

C: Ontario's Fiscal Plan

As a result of the government's economic and fiscal policies and its prudent and cautious approach to budgeting, the Province remains on track to balance the budget in 2001-02. This will be the first time in nearly 100 years that Ontario has balanced the budget for three consecutive years.

The slowdown in the global economy has affected Ontario, and the Province is now expecting economic growth in 2001 to be slower than forecast in the 2001 Budget. While the current economic environment is difficult, the government has put in place policies that ensure solid economic growth over the medium and longer term.

The recently released 2000-01 Public Accounts reported a record $3.1 billion reduction in Net Provincial Debt in 2000-01–the largest single-year debt reduction in the Province's history. In just two years the government has achieved over 80 per cent of its commitment to reduce debt by at least $5 billion during the current term of office.

This section will:

  • provide an update on the Province's 2001-02 fiscal outlook, based on results for the second quarter ending September 30;

  • outline the government's plan to improve public-sector accountability;

  • report on Ontario's recent fiscal performance; and

  • review Ontario's borrowing and debt management.

2001-02 Fiscal Outlook: Second-Quarter Update

ON TRACK FOR THIRD CONSECUTIVE BALANCED BUDGET

In 2001-02 Ontario's budget is expected to be balanced for the third consecutive year– the first time in nearly a century.

2001-02 Fiscal Performance
($ Millions)
  Budget
Plan
Current
Outlook*
In-Year
Change
Revenue 64,270 64,112 (158)
Expenditure      
        Programs 52,011 52,207 196
        Restructuring and Other Charges - - -
   Total Program Expenditure 52,011 52,207 196
   Capital 1,944 1,949 5
   Public Debt Interest      
        Provincial 8,795 8,736 (59)
        Electricity Sector 520 520 -
Total Expenditure 63,270 63,412 142
Less: Reserve 1,000 700 (300)
Add: Decrease/(Increase) in Stranded Debt from
          Electricity Sector Restructuring to be Recovered
          from Ratepayers**
140 140 -
Surplus / (Deficit) 140 140 -

*Second-quarter results as at September 30, 2001.
**Reflects the estimated excess of revenue over expenditure of the Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation (OEFC). Consistent with the principles of electricity restructuring, OEFC debt is to be recovered from ratepayers, not taxpayers.
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

  • Ontario's 2001-02 Budget Plan included a $1 billion reserve designed to protect the balanced budget against unexpected and adverse changes in the economic and fiscal outlook.

  • With economic growth slower than projected and consistent with the role of the reserve in prudent budgeting, $300 million of the reserve has been allocated to ensure the balanced budget target is met. The $700 million balance of the reserve will be available for debt reduction at year end if not needed.

IN-YEAR REVENUE CHANGES

Total revenue in 2001-02 is forecast at $64,112 million, $158 million below the Budget Plan and First Quarter Ontario Finances outlook.

2001-02 In-Year Changes to Revenue Since Budget
($ Millions)
Changes This Quarter:    
   Taxation Revenue    
        Personal Income Tax 250  
        Corporations Tax (400)  
        Retail Sales Tax (50)  
        Tobacco Tax 40  
   Total Taxation Revenue   (160)
   Other Revenue   2
Total In-Year Revenue Changes Since Budget   (158)

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

  • The government's cautious and prudent approach towards forecasting revenues has resulted in Ontario revenues being largely on track with the 2001 Budget outlook despite the lower consensus projection for economic growth.

  • The forecast for Personal Income Tax (PIT) revenue has increased by $250 million from the Budget projection primarily due to higher 2000 PIT assessments than expected at the time of the 2000-01 Public Accounts.

  • The PIT increase is partially offset by the impact of slower wages and salaries growth in 2001, lower expected capital gains income arising from the decline in stock prices this year and the benefits to taxpayers of accelerating tax cuts originally planned for January 1, 2002.

  • The Corporations Tax revenue forecast has been lowered by $400 million due to lower expected profit levels this year and the acceleration of the corporate income tax cuts originally scheduled for January 1, 2002.

  • The Retail Sales Tax revenue forecast has been reduced by $50 million as a result of lower consumer and tourist spending expected in the wake of the tragic events of September 11 in the United States.

  • The Tobacco Tax revenue forecast has increased by $40 million as a result of the tax increase announced by the federal government which, under Ontario legislation, automatically increases Ontario Tobacco Tax by an equivalent amount.

  • Miscellaneous Other Revenue is up $2 million due to an increase in revenue for expanded OPP policing of Highway 407 and policing services provided by the OPP for the towns of Collingwood, New Tecumseth, Orillia and Penetanguishene.

IN-YEAR OPERATING EXPENDITURE CHANGES

Operating expenditure for 2001-02, at $61,463 million, is up $137 million from the Budget Plan and First Quarter Ontario Finances outlook. Increased funding for hospitals across the province and one-time payments to low- and middle-income working families with young children were partially offset by one-time underspending and lower public debt interest costs.

Summary of 2001-02 In-Year Operating Expenditure Changes Since Budget
($ Millions)
Changes This Quarter:    
Hospitals–Increased Funding 300  
   Less: Offsets (162)  
   Net Change   138
One-Time Payments to Low- and Middle-Income Working Families with Young Children   37
Tourism Marketing Strategy   10
Counterterrorism and Emergency Management Strategies   10
PDI–Savings   (59)
Other (Net)   1
Total In-Year Operating Expenditure Changes   137

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

  • Funding for hospitals across the province has increased by $300 million in-year to better address the changing and rising costs of caring for patients. This increase is partially offset by $73 million in one-time underspending and ongoing administrative efficiencies in the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care and $89 million from the Contingency Fund.

  • An additional $37 million has been provided in-year for one-time payments to low- and middle-income working families with children under the age of seven.

  • An additional $10 million has been provided in-year to launch an enhanced tourism marketing campaign.

  • Expenditures increased $10 million in-year to fund the Province's counterterrorism and emergency management strategies.

  • Public Debt Interest costs are down $59 million due to lower-than-expected interest rates and cost-effective debt management.

IN-YEAR CAPITAL EXPENDITURE CHANGES

The capital expenditure outlook for 2001-02, at $1,949 million, is up $5 million from the Budget Plan and First Quarter Ontario Finances outlook.

Summary of 2001-02 In-Year Capital Expenditure Changes Since Budget
($ Millions)
Changes This Quarter:  
Victims' Justice Action Plan 3
Grants to Universities– to increase capacity at medical schools 1
Anti-Terrorism and Emergency Management Training Facilities 1
Total In-Year Capital Expenditure Changes 5

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.

  • Capital expenditure has increased $3 million in-year due to a transfer from operating expenditure to capital for the Victims' Justice Action Plan.

  • An in-year increase of $1 million in the Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities is due to capital expenditure related to increased medical student enrolment, transferred from Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care operating expenditure.

  • An additional $1 million has been provided in-year towards the building of an anti-terrorism training facility at the Ontario Police College and an emergency management training centre for first responders at the Ontario Fire College.

Accountability: Progress through Performance

"Accountability does not end when the books are balanced. True accountability goes far beyond the numbers."

Ontario Budget, 2001

Accountability is not a new concept. This government initiated the process of improving accountability practices in 1995 by establishing the Ontario Financial Review Commission (OFRC), which made recommendations on the Province's accounting, reporting and financial management practices.

Some of the accountability measures undertaken by the government since 1995 include:

  • introduction of annual ministry business plans that outline the core activities of the ministry, set performance goals each year and report on the results;

  • adoption of Public Sector Accounting Board recommendations in the preparation of the Budget, Quarterly Finances and Financial Statements of the Province;

  • introduction of Management Board of Cabinet Directives on Accountability (1997) and Transfer Payment Accountability (1998); and

  • passage of the Taxpayer Protection Act, 1999 and Balanced Budget Act, 1999.

These measures have dramatically improved accountability to the citizens of Ontario. However, this government is committed to continuous improvement in accountability practices and as part of that process, the government reconvened the OFRC in 2000. At that time the OFRC made recommendations on the financial management, decision-making and reporting practices of the government's key transfer partners in the broader public sector.

Some of the measures the government will undertake to raise the bar on accountability include:

  • bringing forth amendments to the Audit Act, 1990 to empower the Provincial Auditor to ensure that institutions funded by Ontario taxpayers use that money prudently and effectively;

  • implementing program evaluation that will incorporate the principle of zero-based budgeting as part of the annual business planning process; and

  • supporting initiatives in major sectors, such as independently produced report cards for hospitals and the proposed new Municipal Act.

The government will continue to strive to make its operations more efficient and accountable. As more than 80 per cent of the Province's program and capital spending is in the form of transfer payments to organizations and individuals, the government will continue to work with the broader public sector to achieve our common goals as a society. The ultimate success of our efforts will depend on the willingness of all parties to work towards improved accountability to the citizens of Ontario.

Ontario's Fiscal Performance

BALANCED BUDGETS

Through prudent and cautious fiscal planning, 2001-02 is expected to be the seventh consecutive year in which the government's deficit and debt reduction targets are met or overachieved.

Bar chart showing the ongoing to commitment to and progress towards a balanced budget.
  • As of September 30, the second-quarter outlook for 2001-02 is a $140 million surplus, on track with the Budget Plan.

  • The recently released 2000-01 Public Accounts reported the 2000-01 surplus at $3,325 million, overachieving the cautious 2000 Budget Plan of a balanced budget.

TOTAL SPENDING AS A SHARE OF THE ECONOMY

The government's commitment to controlling spending has allowed the Province to maintain a sound fiscal framework even in these times of economic uncertainty.

A graph showing total spending as a per cent of GDP from a peak of 18.9  in 1992-1993 through to projections of 14.2 for 2001-2002.
  • In 2001-02, total spending as a share of the economy is estimated at 14.2 per cent, down from a peak of 18.9 per cent in 1992-93.

  • At 14.2 per cent, total spending as a share of Ontario's Gross Domestic Product is at its lowest level since the early 1980s.

NET PROVINCIAL DEBT AS A per cent OF GDP FALLING

With four consecutive deficits in excess of $10 billion annually, Ontario's debt rose dramatically in the early 1990s. Net Provincial Debt as a per cent of GDP more than doubled from 12.7 per cent in 1989-90 to 32.1 per cent in 1996-97.

Graph showing how the net provincial debt as a per cent of GDP has been falling since 1996-1997.
  • Strong economic growth, sound fiscal management and two consecutive years of budget surpluses have reduced Net Provincial Debt to a projected 24.8 per cent of GDP in 2001-02.

  • Short-term challenges to the economy and fiscal management may affect the pace of debt reduction. However, with strong medium term growth prospects and prudent fiscal policy, Net Provincial Debt as a share of the provincial economy can be expected to decline in the years ahead.

Borrowing and Debt Management

MARKET CONDITIONS

Stability is returning to financial markets following the events of September 11, supported by aggressive interest rate cutting by central banks. However, some uncertainty persists as a result of the military strikes in Afghanistan and the threat of further attacks on the United States.

North American bond yields, especially short and medium term, have declined during the fiscal year to date. This has meant steeper interest rate yield curves in both the United States and Canada in recent months, with short-term rates falling much further than long-term rates. On October 31, 2001, the U.S. Treasury announced that it was suspending the issuance of 30-year securities, leading to a decline in long-term bond yields and a subsequent flattening of the yield curve.

The gap between Canadian and U.S. 10-year bond yields has widened significantly, approaching levels last seen in 1998. This is due to the safe-haven investor status of U.S. Treasury bonds relative to Government of Canada bonds.

After a gradual depreciation during calendar 2000, the Canadian dollar has continued to decline against the U.S. dollar during 2001. The Canadian dollar has fared better against most other major currencies.

BORROWING PROGRAM

As of September 30, 2001, long-term public market borrowing requirements are $1.2 billion higher than estimated in the 2001-02 Budget Plan. This is due to an increase of nearly $0.6 billion in accruals and consolidations and a $0.7 billion reduction in borrowing from the Canada Pension Plan (CPP), offset by a decrease in maturities of $0.1 billion.

The Province borrowed $1.5 billion during the second quarter, all in Canadian dollars, including a Euro-Canadian bond issue, a number of structured domestic Medium Term Notes (MTNs) and a new five-year benchmark domestic issue.

Almost 95 per cent of the borrowing completed during the first half of the year was raised in the Canadian dollar market. This included the sale of $4.2 billion of Ontario Savings Bonds in June.

Financial Summary
As of September 30, 2001
($ Millions)
2001-02   
Budget Plan
2001-02
Outlook
Surplus/(Deficit) 140 140
Accruals and Consolidations (2,258) (2,825)
Maturities* (9,557) (9,467)
Provision for Early Redemptions (1,020) (1,020)
Other Sources/(Uses) - -
Net Repayment from/(Loans to) Agencies (42) (42)
Decrease/(Increase) in Liquid Reserves 2,551 2,551
Increase/(Decrease) in Short-term Borrowing - -
Canada Pension Plan Borrowing 1,130 423
Long-Term Public Borrowing 9,056 10,240
of which:    
Completed   7,369
Remaining   2,871

* Maturing debt is lower than the Budget Plan due to the Province exercising its options on extendible bonds.

As of November 6, 2001, the Ontario Financing Authority (OFA) has completed $8.0 billion of the Province's planned 2001-02 long-term public borrowing of $10.2 billion. Since September 30, 2001, the Province has raised $0.4 billion from a reopening of a U.S. dollar Global issue and $0.2 billion from five domestic MTNs.

In addition to the borrowing and redemptions shown in the Financial Summary table, the Province bought back $261 million of previously issued debt, financing the purchases with similar amounts of debt issued at more favourable rates.

The Province plans to raise an additional $2.2 billion in long-term public borrowing this fiscal year.

DEBT MANAGEMENT

As of September 30, 2001, foreign exchange exposure was 1.8 per cent of outstanding debt. Interest rate resetting exposure (net of liquid reserves) was 10.0 per cent of outstanding debt.

The Province maintains a flexible financing approach in managing high levels of debt maturities. The Province will continue to seek the most cost-effective borrowing opportunities and a maturity profile that recognizes the limit on interest rate resetting exposure.

ONTARIO ELECTRICITY FINANCIAL CORPORATION

As of September 30, 2001, the borrowing requirements for the Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation (OEFC) were estimated at $3.4 billion for 2001-02, down from the $3.6 billion forecast in the Budget Plan.

As of November 6, 2001, the OEFC had completed $1.8 billion of its planned long-term borrowing.

Conclusion

As a result of Ontario's prudent budgeting practices, the Province remains on track to achieve a third consecutive balanced budget for the first time in nearly 100 years. With economic growth slower than projected and consistent with the role of the reserve in prudent budgeting, a portion of the reserve has been allocated at second quarter to ensure a balanced budget for 2001-02.

The government remains committed to balancing the budget on an ongoing basis. The government's fiscal and economic policies have restored the Province to a sound financial footing and created a solid foundation for economic growth over the medium and longer term.



LIST OF FINANCIAL TABLES AND GRAPHS
Financial Tables Table Numbers
Statement of Financial Transactions C1
Revenue C2
Operating Expenditure C3
Capital Expenditure C4
Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics



C5



Graphs  
The Budget Dollar: Revenue 2001-02
The Budget Dollar: Total Expenditure 2001-02
The Budget Dollar: Program Expenditure 2001-02
Revenue Sources by Category, per cent of Total 1997-98 to 2001-02
Operating Expenditure by Category, per cent of Total 1997-98 to 2001-02
Program Expenditure by Category, per cent of Total 1997-98 to 2001-02
Capital Expenditure by Category, per cent of Total 1997-98 to 2001-02
2001-02 Operating Expenditure by Category
2001-02 Capital Expenditure by Category




Statement of Financial Transactions
($ Millions)
Table C1
  Actual
1997-98
Actual
1998-99
Actual
1999-00
Actual
2000-01
Outlook*
2001-02
Revenue 52,518 55,786 62,931 64,682 64,112
Expenditure          
       Programs 43,709 46,509 47,369 50,075 52,207
       Restructuring and Other Charges 1,595 76 211 31 -
   Total Program Expenditure 45,304 46,585 47,580 50,106 52,207
   Capital 2,451 2,187 4,832 2,079 1,949
   Public Debt Interest          
        Provincial 8,729 9,016 8,977 8,896 8,736
        Electricity Sector - - 520 520 520
Total Expenditure 56,484 57,788 61,909 61,601 63,412
Less: Reserve - - - - 700
Add: Decrease/(Increase) in Stranded Debt from
        Electricity Sector Restructuring to be Recovered from
        Ratepayers**
- - (354) 244 140
Surplus / (Deficit) (3,966) (2,002) 668 3,325 140
Net Provincial Debt 112,735 114,737 113,715 110,634 110,634

*Second-quarter outlook as at September 30.

**Reflects the estimated excess of revenue over expenditure of the Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation (OEFC). Consistent with the principles of electricity restructuring, OEFC debt is to be recovered from ratepayers, not taxpayers.

Net Provincial Debt represents total Liabilities less Financial Assets.

Revenue
($ Millions)
Table C2
  Actual
1997-98
Actual
1998-99
Actual
1999-00
Actual
2000-01
Outlook
2001-02
Taxation Revenue          
   Personal Income Tax 16,293 17,190 17,617 18,624 18,260
   Retail Sales Tax 10,843 11,651 12,879 13,735 14,290
   Corporations Tax 7,456 7,447 8,095 9,200 7,940
   Employer Health Tax 2,851 2,882 3,118 3,424 3,620
   Gasoline Tax 2,028 2,068 2,154 2,172 2,300
   Fuel Tax 563 592 665 648 655
   Tobacco Tax 425 447 481 504 660
   Land Transfer Tax 565 470 565 642 670
   Other Taxation 245 330 307 333 265
TOTAL 41,269 43,077 45,881 49,282 48,660
Government of Canada          
   Canada Health and Social Transfer (CHST) 3,970 3,553 3,967 4,138 5,630
   CHST Supplements - - 755 757 380
   Social Housing 387 358 466 541 530
   Student Assistance 18 64 170 40 64
   Medical Equipment Trust - - - 190 190
   Indian Welfare Services 87 155 85 131 117
   Bilingualism Development 49 55 65 64 64
   Employability Assistance for People with Disabilities 53 71 65 63 39
   Other 534 259 312 205 345
TOTAL 5,098 4,515 5,885 6,129 7,359
Income from Government Enterprises          
   Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation 1,485 1,764 1,924 2,181 2,000
   Liquor Control Board of Ontario 745 809 845 877 890
   Ontario Power Generation Inc. and Hydro One Inc. - - 903 928 524
   Other 61 (26) 36 14 10
TOTAL 2,291 2,547 3,708 4,000 3,424
Other Revenue          
   Vehicle and Driver Registration Fees 820 890 911 929 925
   Other Fees and Licences 548 661 667 660 685
   Liquor Licence Revenue 506 519 539 525 518
   Royalties 286 289 345 235 240
   Sales and Rentals 582 640 2,133 637 300
   Independent Electricity Market Operation Revenues - - 314 344 159
   Local Services Realignment–Reimbursement of Expenditure 519 2,109 1,678 1,432 1,223
   Miscellaneous 599 539 870 509 619
TOTAL 3,860 5,647 7,457 5,271 4,669
Total Revenue 52,518 55,786 62,931 64,682 64,112



Operating Expenditure
($ Millions)
Table C3
Ministry Actual
1997-98
Actual
1998-99
Actual
1999-00
Actual
2000-01
Outlook
2001-02
Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs 306 309 347 401 446
   One-Time and Extraordinary - - - 233 -
   Farm Tax Rebate 158 - - - -
Attorney General 683 753 846 957 979
Board of Internal Economy 113 117 154 116 117
Citizenship 73 82 95 77 78
Community and Social Services 8,067 7,659 7,512 7,620 7,756
Consumer and Business Services 92 136 134 155 168
Correctional Services 531 540 563 593 610
Economic Development and Trade 138 87 92 81 107
Education 4,715 7,719 7,704 7,961 8,471
   School Board Transition/Phase-in Funding 224 - 268 - -
   Teachers' Pension Plan (TPP) 1,443 67 (363) (779) (230)
Energy, Science and Technology 69 83 429 464 286
Environment 142 162 174 190 218
Executive Offices 14 17 19 21 21
Finance–Own Account 691 998 548 842 810
   Public Debt Interest          
        Provincial 8,729 9,016 8,977 8,896 8,736
        Electricity Sector - - 520 520 520
   Community Reinvestment Fund 169 678 521 561 561
   Provision for Electricity Sector - - 383 408 4
Health and Long-Term Care 18,283 18,867 20,373 21,686 23,712
   Accelerated Health Care Commitment - - - 498 -
   Health Care Restructuring 532 50 - - -
   Major One-Time Health Care Costs 113 639 286 487 190
Intergovernmental Affairs 5 4 4 4 5
Labour 117 108 101 104 113
Management Board Secretariat 359 353 147 214 346
   Retirement Benefits (86) (219) (165) (209) 30
   Contingency Fund - - - - 551
   OPS Employee Severance (Net) (159) - 88 - -
   Special Circumstances Fund - 180 - - -
Municipal Affairs and Housing 2,395 1,611 1,665 1,792 1,214
   Municipal Capital and Operating Restructuring Fund 23 - - - -
   Municipal Restructuring Fund 71 - - - -
Native Affairs Secretariat 12 12 15 16 15
Natural Resources 463 531 460 417 415
Northern Development and Mines 62 82 122 113 179
Office of Francophone Affairs 2 3 3 4 5
Solicitor General 646 756 816 907 944
Tourism, Culture and Recreation 205 286 367 360 402
Training, Colleges and Universities 3,052 3,281 3,285 3,219 3,365
Transportation 702 607 587 593 519
   Restructuring 50 (17) - - -
   TTC Five Year Capital Transfer/Ottawa-Carleton Regional
          Transit Commission Transit Bus Subsidy Agreement
829 44 - - -
Year-End Savings - - - - (200)
Total Operating Expenditure 54,033 55,601 57,077 59,522 61,463



Capital Expenditure
($ Millions)
Table C4
Ministry Actual
1997-98
Actual
1998-99
Actual
1999-00
Actual
2000-01
Outlook
2001-02
Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs 1 1 1 1 51
Attorney General 47 73 62 42 67
Community and Social Services 31 27 20 14 38
Correctional Services 5 30 124 95 98
Education 267 229 52 4 20
Energy, Science and Technology - 273 656 86 76
Environment 98 19 1 5 21
   Water Protection Fund - 15 160 17 5
Finance 6 4 7 7 13
   SuperBuild Millennium Partnerships - - - 4 100
   Contingency Fund - - - - 79
Health and Long-Term Care 106 187 338 182 200
   Major One-Time Capital Costs - - 1,004 140 -
Management Board Secretariat 80 39 13 24 37
Municipal Affairs and Housing 152 62 (10) - 8
Native Affairs Secretariat 14 13 7 5 7
Natural Resources 151 73 96 65 99
Northern Development and Mines 173 177 212 312 327
Solicitor General 7 - - 4 10
Tourism, Culture and Recreation 3 2 231 32 68
Training, Colleges and Universities 117 71 1,028 204 52
Transportation 1,193 892 830 836 673
Year-End Savings - - - - (100)
Total Capital Expenditure 2,451 2,187 4,832 2,079 1,949



Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics
($ Millions)
Table C5
  Modified  
Cash Basis
PSAB Basis
  1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 Actual
2000-01
Outlook*
2001-02
Financial Transactions                    
Revenue 41,807 43,674 46,039 49,473 49,450 52,518 55,786 62,931 64,682 64,112
Expenditure                    
       Programs 45,350 44,195 44,505 45,309 42,956 43,709 46,509 47,369 50,075 52,207
       Restructuring and Other Charges - - - 854 2,180 1,595 76 211 31 -
   Total Program Expenditure 45,350 44,195 44,505 46,163 45,136 45,304 46,585 47,580 50,106 52,207
   Capital 3,592 3,552 3,831 3,635 2,612 2,451 2,187 4,832 2,079 1,949
   Public Debt Interest                    
        Provincial 5,293 7,129 7,832 8,475 8,607 8,729 9,016 8,977 8,896 8,736
        Electricity Sector - - - - - - - 520 520 520
Total Expenditure 54,235 54,876 56,168 58,273 56,355 56,484 57,788 61,909 61,601 63,412
Less: Reserve - - - - - - - - - 700
Add: Decrease/(Increase) in Stranded Debt from Electricity
   Sector Restructuring to be Recovered from Ratepayers**
- - - - - - - (354) 244 140
Surplus / (Deficit) (12,428) (11,202) (10,129) (8,800) (6,905) (3,966) (2,002) 668 3,325 140
Net Provincial Debt 61,796 80,599 90,728 101,864 108,769 112,735 114,737 113,715 110,634 110,634
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Market Prices 287,015 293,980 311,603 329,855 338,763 359,953 378,124 405,625 429,530 446,282
Personal Income 253,778 256,092 260,628 271,372 276,304 289,537 303,136 322,165 342,770 356,824
Population–July (000s) 10,570 10,690 10,828 10,965 11,101 11,249 11,387 11,523 11,685 11,874
Net Provincial Debt per Capita (dollars) 5,846 7,540 8,379 9,290 9,798 10,022 10,076 9,869 9,468 9,317
Personal Income per Capita (dollars) 24,009 23,956 24,070 24,749 24,890 25,739 26,621 27,958 29,334 30,051
Total Expenditure as a per cent of GDP 18.9 18.7 18.0 17.7 16.6 15.7 15.3 15.3 14.3 14.2
Public Debt Interest as a per cent of Revenue 12.7 16.3 17.0 17.1 17.4 16.6 16.2 15.1 14.6 14.4
Net Provincial Debt as a per cent of GDP 21.5 27.4 29.1 30.9 32.1 31.3 30.3 28.0 25.8 24.8

*  Second-quarter outlook as at September 30.
**  Reflects the estimated excess of revenue over expenditure of the Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation (OEFC). Consistent with the principles of electricity restructuring, OEFC debt is to be recovered from ratepayers, not taxpayers.
  Net Provincial Debt represents total Liabilities less Financial Assets.
  Starting in 1999-2000, Public Debt Interest includes $520 million related to the Province's equity investment in the electricity sector.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

The Budget Dollar
Revenue
2001-02*

A pie chart showing the budget dollar for 2001-2002 by revenue.

* As of September 30


The Budget Dollar
Total Expenditure
2001-02*

A pie chart showing the budget dollar for 2001-2002 by total expenditure.

* As of September 30
** Includes Major One-Time Health Care Spending.


The Budget Dollar
Program Expenditure
2001-02*

A pie chart showing the budget dollar for 2001-2002 by program expenditure.

* As of September 30
**Includes Major One-Time Health Care Spending; excluding these costs, the health care share is 45 cents.


Revenue Sources by Category
Per Cent of Total
1997-98 to 2001-02*

Bar chart showing revenue sources by category as a percentage of the total covering the fiscal years 1997-1998 to 2001-2002.

* As of September 30


Operating Expenditure by Category
Per Cent of Total
1997-98 to 2001-02*

Bar chart showing operating expenditure sources by category as a percentage of the total covering the fiscal years 1997-1998 to 2001-2002.

* As of September 30
**Includes Major One-Time Health Care Spending.


Program Expenditure by Category
Per Cent of Total
1997-98 to 2001-02*

Bar chart showing program expenditure by category as a percentage of the total covering the fiscal years 1997-1998 to 2001-2002.

* As of September 30
**Includes Major One-Time Health Care Spending.


Capital Expenditure by Category
Per Cent of Total
1997-98 to 2001-02*

Bar chart showing capital expenditure by category as a percentage of the total covering the fiscal years 1997-1998 to 2001-2002.

* As of September 30
**Includes Major One-Time Health Care Spending.


2001-02 Operating Expenditure
by Category*
($ billions)

Pie chart showing the 2001-2002 operating expenditures by category.

* As of September 30
**Includes Major One-Time Health Care costs of $190 million for medical equipment.


2001-02 Capital Expenditure
by Category*
($ billions)

Pie chart showing the 2001-2002 capital expenditures by category.

* As of September 30




D: Policies for a Sound Economy

ONTARIO'S GOAL

"Ontario will enjoy the best-performing economy and the highest quality of life in North America."

Ontario Budget, 2001

Ontario's strong economic and fiscal performance since 1995 and its ability to cope with the effects of the current global slowdown are the result of sound policy actions. This section reviews these actions. The Government of Ontario continues to:

  • cut taxes for people and business to promote economic growth;

  • invest in research, innovation and education;

  • remove barriers to growth; and

  • invest in infrastructure.

Cutting Taxes for People to Support Economic Growth

"The hard-working people of this province will invest and spend their money in ways that will help the economy to grow."

Ontario Budget, 2001

Personal income tax cuts improve the economic well-being of the people of Ontario and support Ontario's position as an economic growth leader. PIT cuts lower the tax applied to unincorporated small business, encouraging entrepreneurship and job creation.

Since 1995, the Ontario Government has:

  • cut provincial personal income tax rates sharply;

  • fully indexed Ontario's personal income tax system to offset the effect of inflation;

  • reduced the amount of capital gains taxed from 75 to 50 per cent;

  • provided a permanent Land Transfer Tax refund of up to $2,000 for first-time buyers of newly built homes;

  • begun the process of ending the personal income surtax;

  • reduced annual residential education property taxes by $250 million; and

  • introduced and enhanced the Ontario Child Care Supplement for Working Families.

A family of four with net income of $60,000 from two earners will save $2,345 a year in Ontario personal income tax, or more than 50 per cent, because of Ontario's tax cuts.

The largest percentage tax savings go to taxpayers with the lowest incomes. When the government's tax cuts are fully implemented, 735,000 lower-income earners who pay no Ontario income tax will continue to pay income tax to the federal government.

Bar chart showing the progress of income tax cuts and the increase in job creation in Ontario between 1995 and 2001.

Low personal income tax rates are vital to maintaining a healthy, efficient economy with a rising standard of living. For too long, counterproductive government policies were causing the standard of living in Ontario to stagnate, or even to fall.

In the five years prior to tax cuts, real GDP per person fell in Ontario. In the five years since tax cuts, real GDP per person has risen about 18 per cent, well in excess of the increase in the rest of Canada, the United States or the average of the industrialized countries.

Numerous studies that compare the performance of different countries (and states in the United States) have found that the ones in which taxes and government spending take up a lower share of GDP have higher economic growth.

Income tax cuts improve the efficiency and competitiveness of the economy. Lower income tax rates give everybody, whether business owners or employees, an incentive to work harder and smarter, because they are allowed to keep more of what they earn.

Companies are much more inclined to invest in a location that has lower income tax rates, because it makes it easier for them to attract and keep skilled staff, and because they know that an overtaxed workforce will be less productive. That is one of the reasons Ontario has led the rest of Canada and North America in job creation since the Ontario Government began cutting income tax rates.

Cutting Business Taxes to Enhance Competitiveness

"Since we started cutting taxes business investment in this province has increased by 66 per cent"

Ontario Budget, 2001

Building on our business tax competitiveness is fundamental to Ontario's growth strategy. Business tax cuts increase Ontario's competitiveness and encourage investment and job creation.

Bar chart showing the lowering of Ontario's corporate income tax rates between 1995 and to the end of the scheduled changes in 2005.

By 2005, Ontario will have the lowest combined general corporate income tax rate in North America. No Canadian province will have a lower rate.

  • Ontario's general corporate income tax rate and manufacturing and processing tax rate will be cut to 8 per cent by 2005.

  • Ontario's small business tax rate will be cut to 4 per cent by 2005 and 7,500 more of Ontario's growing small businesses will benefit from this lower small business rate.

Annual business education property taxes have been cut by $350 million.

The Employer Health Tax was eliminated for 88 per cent of employers and all self-employed individuals in 1999.

Ontario is taking the first step towards eliminating the job-killing capital tax that deters business from investing. By making the first $5 million in capital tax-free, the Province will relieve more than 11,000 small and medium-sized businesses of this burden.

It is sometimes claimed that tax cuts for business primarily benefit the wealthy, but most economists agree that this simply is not true.

This has been accepted for many years in other countries. That is why many countries with a strong preference for spending on social programs, such as Sweden, Finland, Norway and Denmark, already have corporate income tax rates that are as low as Ontario's will be in 2005.

Capital is mobile internationally, and companies can choose from many other locations. If taxes on business are higher in Ontario, the result is lower investment in Ontario and lower incomes for Ontario workers.

Economic studies confirm that corporate tax rates have a major impact on where companies decide to locate their investments. For many years, corporate tax rates in Canada were well above the median of the industrialized countries.

Ontario was uncompetitive in the past, and it lost out on a lot of investment, jobs and productivity as a result. The government policy of cutting business taxes to attract new investment means that the standard of living of the average Ontario worker is growing more rapidly.

Fostering a Culture of Innovation and a Skilled Workforce

"We are investing in new technologies, fostering research and development activities and ensuring that businesses have workers with the skills they need to compete with the best in the world. We are committed to giving our young people the freedom and tools to innovate."

Ontario Budget, 2000

BUILDING A CULTURE OF INNOVATION

Ontario is building a culture of innovation that rewards entrepreneurship, risk-taking, and the pursuit of scientific excellence from the classroom to the boardroom:

  • encouraging partnerships with industry and academia to perform world-class research through the Ontario Research and Development Challenge Fund, to build state-of-the-art facilities through the Ontario Innovation Trust, and to establish unique "knowledge networks" through the Ontario Centres of Excellence;

  • attracting and retaining top researchers by recognizing and rewarding their accomplishments and supporting them with the only program in Canada dedicated to funding the indirect costs of research; and

  • rewarding innovation and research excellence by cutting the top rate of Ontario income tax on capital gains by nearly one-half for corporations and individuals, and providing tax incentives to help research-intensive companies attract and retain skilled researchers.

SHARPENING OUR SKILLS

Ontario is making a series of investments in post-secondary education and training to ensure a highly skilled workforce able to compete in today's knowledge-intensive economy:

  • providing multi-year operating funding to ensure that colleges and universities can meet future enrolment increases; adding 23,000 spaces in computer science and high-demand engineering; and establishing the innovative Ontario Institute of Technology;

  • pursuing targeted strategies to address skills needs through training partnerships with the private sector under the Strategic Skills Investment initiative and bridging programs to speed the entry of foreign-trained professionals into the workforce; and

  • modernizing and expanding the apprenticeship system to address skills shortages.

Rebalancing Workplace Relations

"And while we've removed such barriers to job creation as high taxes and unfair job quotas, we've been careful to keep rules in place to protect and expand the rights of employees."

Blueprint–Mike Harris' Plan to Keep Ontario on the Right Track, 1999

The government's labour law reforms strengthen competitiveness, enhance workplace democracy and promote Ontario as a good place to live and work:

  • The Employment Standards Act, 2000 benefits both employees and employers. New provisions help employees balance work and family responsibilities through parental leave of up to one year and unpaid emergency leave of up to 10 days each year. The act also reduces red tape and promotes flexible work arrangements.

  • The Labour Relations Amendment Act, 2000 strengthens workers' rights, enhances workplace stability and fosters economic growth.

  • The Labour Relations Amendment Act (Construction Industry), 2000 modernizes labour relations in the construction industry by promoting stability and predictability and by helping contractors to become more competitive.

  • Reforms to the Workplace Safety and Insurance system put it on a sound financial footing. The average premium rate has been cut to $2.13 per $100 of assessable payroll in 2001, a 29 per cent drop since 1995 and the lowest level since 1983.

Bar chart showing the average workplace insurance premium as it lowers from 1995 to 2001.

Reducing Red Tape

"Businesses naturally strive to grow and people naturally want to succeed. Sometimes the most important thing a government can do is simply get out of the way of the energy and initiative of the private sector."

Blueprint–Mike Harris' Plan to Keep Ontario on the Right Track, 1999

Eliminating red tape contributes to a positive business climate that attracts investment and job creation. To make it easier for businesses to operate, the government and its Red Tape Commission have eliminated more than 1,700 unnecessary regulations, repealed more than 50 outdated acts, amended more than 200 other acts and passed 13 red tape reduction bills. All proposed regulations must undergo a business impact test.

Ontario is committed to easing costs for businesses and eliminating barriers to their success by:

  • passing the Electronic Commerce Act to remove outdated legal barriers to e-commerce and increase consumer confidence in online transactions. Ontario was the first province in Canada to bring e-commerce legislation into effect;

  • simplifying and streamlining registration and reporting for Ontario business; and

  • helping entrepreneurs and small businesses through Community Small Business Investment Funds, Enterprise Centres, Self-Help Offices and Ontario Exports Inc.

Initiatives to promote growth of Ontario's housing and development industry include:

  • amending the Planning Act and reducing red tape for building permits, to speed decision-making, remove duplication, streamline administration and reduce costs;

  • changing the Development Charges Act to reduce costs and improve fairness, ensuring development charges do not impede growth; and

  • encouraging revitalization of brownfields by streamlining planning processes, clarifying clean-up rules, limiting liability for clean-up costs and stimulating redevelopment through the SuperBuild municipal infrastructure investment partnership initiatives and property tax reductions.

SuperBuild: Investing in Infrastructure

"I am determined to see our children inherit cities, communities, neighbourhoods–an entire province–that is as efficient, that is as strong as possible and that has a quality of life second to none. Our vision will help encourage growth. It will make sure that all regions of Ontario–from our smallest towns to our largest cities–can reach their economic potential. And it will help keep Ontario strong, growing and ready to compete in the 21st century."

Premier Mike Harris

THE SUPERBUILD VISION–BUILDING FOR THE FUTURE

Investment in infrastructure sustains our quality of life, helps keep our economy stable and provides the basis for future economic growth. The government created the Ontario SuperBuild Corporation to provide the kind of visionary, leading-edge thinking needed to meet the infrastructure challenges of the 21st century.

SuperBuild's mandate is to plan for the Province's long-term capital needs, make strategic investments and develop new funding partnerships. This will mean:

  • thinking ahead about what to invest in and where to invest;

  • keeping our existing assets in a good state of repair;

  • building as the economy grows rather than after it grows;

  • planning wisely so that infrastructure can be replaced when it wears out; and

  • using Provincial funding to leverage infrastructure investment from both public and private partners.

The government has committed to a five-year investment of $20 billion in infrastructure through SuperBuild, including partner contributions. By the end of this fiscal year, SuperBuild will have already invested close to $9 billion and committed substantial additional funding to municipal infrastructure. Through partnerships with our hospitals, colleges, universities, municipalities, the federal government and the private sector, the total invested will reach over $13 billion.

Pie chart showing the SuperBuild capital investment for 1999-2000 to 2001-2002.

SuperBuild's investments have helped to ensure that public capital investment remains strong, which is helping Ontario weather the current unsettled conditions in the world economy. The value of institutional and government building permits was up 51 per cent in the first eight months of 2001, compared to the first eight months of last year. Public-sector capital investment is currently forecast to grow 9.3 per cent for 2001, well ahead of the economy's growth rate. In the coming months, SuperBuild's investments in highways, hospitals, universities, colleges, water treatment plants and other municipal projects will stimulate local economies and provide construction jobs in every area of the province.

HIGHWAYS AND TRANSIT SYSTEMS FOR THE FUTURE

Rebuilding the province's transportation system is one of the government's key capital investment priorities. Since 1995, the Province has invested more than $5 billion in the highway system. As a result, approximately 90 per cent of the highway network in southern Ontario is now in good condition, up from 62 per cent in 1995. Highway conditions have also improved significantly in the North since 1995, and extensive sections of Highways 11 and 69 have been expanded from two to four lanes.

Ontario's economy has grown so quickly that highway congestion has become a problem, especially in large urban areas and on major trade routes. To keep people and goods moving freely and to meet Ontario's Smart Growth objectives, the government committed to a balanced, strategic approach to unlocking gridlock through major SuperBuild investments over the next 10 years. These investments will include a balance of both highways and transit.

Selected Strategic Transportation Projects
Major Highway Projects
Recently Completed or Planned
for the Near Future
Highways for the Future Transit for the Future
400-series
  • 401 Rehabilitation in GTA
  • 400 Widening in Toronto and
    York Region
  • 401 Widening, Newcastle to Port
    Hope

Other Provincial Highways
  • Hwy 7 & 8 Widening and
    Interchange, Kitchener
  • Hwy 15 Reconstruction, Portland
    to Lombardy
  • New Hwy 26, Wasaga Beach to
    Collingwood

Northern Highways
  • Hwy 11 Widening North of
    Huntsville
  • Hwy 17 Resurfacing
  • Hwy 69 Widening South of Parry
    Sound
407 East

427 Extension

Mid-Peninsula Niagara Corridor

404 & Bradford Bypass

New East-West GTA Corridor

Ottawa Ring Road

Windsor-Detroit Border Crossing

Inter-Regional Transit Expansion in
the Golden Horseshoe

Strategic Transit Expansion in Other
Cities

Municipal Transit Renewal

GO Transit Capital Investment &
Operations

Ontario has committed $3.25 billion over the next 10 years to renew and expand transit systems. This will include support for an expanded GO Transit, new inter-regional transit services in the Golden Horseshoe, transit expansion in other Ontario cities and funding to replace aging assets. If federal and municipal partners also contribute equal shares, more than $9 billion of transit investment could be achieved.

The Province has also committed $10 billion over the next 10 years for highways, to ensure that the highway system will be able to serve a growing population and economy.

A SPACE FOR EVERY QUALIFIED STUDENT

Anticipating future growth in post-secondary enrolment and the need to accommodate the double class of high school graduates in 2003, the Province invested more than $1 billion in 1999-2000 to ensure that universities and colleges have spaces for every qualified student.

SuperBuild's investment will result in an additional investment of at least $800 million from partners, and the creation of more than 73,000 new student spaces.

In addition, the Province supports capital investment in elementary and secondary schools through the Pupil Accommodation Grant. In the last two school years, school boards received $836 million in capital funding, which levered $2.3 billion of capital investment. This year, school boards will receive more than $500 million for repairing, upgrading and building schools.

A Selection of SuperBuild Major Post-Secondary Capital Projects Currently under Construction
Project Title Description SuperBuild
Funding
Original
Investment*
Value
St. Clair College–Centre for Excellence in Manufacturing Construction of a new building to house the Centre for Excellence in Manufacturing and to provide instructional space for the Information Technology and Manufacturing programs. The new space as currently planned will contain five laboratories and five shops.
Expected opening date: September 1, 2003.
$10.98 M $24.40 M
University of Toronto–Bahen Centre for Information Technology Construction of a new building to provide instructional facilities for students in Computer Science, Electrical and Computer Engineering, and Mechanical and Industrial Engineering. It will also house the Advanced Technologies Research Facility, which conducts research in partnership with industry, including Bell Canada, the Centre for Advanced Coating Technologies, and Nortel. The new space will contain 31 classrooms and 80 laboratories.
Expected opening date: May 1, 2002.
$24.03 M $88.14 M
Queen's University–New Chemistry Building and School of Business Renovation Building a new Millennium Chemistry Building and renovation of space in the university's old chemistry building and in its School of Business. The new space will contain 34 classrooms and 30 laboratories.
Expected opening date: September 1, 2002.
$39.96 M $94.56 M
Canadore College–Integrated Aviation Program Relocation Development of a new, comprehensive aerospace campus at the North Bay Airport, allowing the college to relocate its aviation/aerospace programs from the current non-sustainable site. The project will allow Canadore to increase aerospace-related enrolment by approximately 40 per cent.
Expected opening date: August 1, 2002.
$8.60 M $12.49 M

*Includes investments by colleges, universities and private-sector funding partners.

MODERNIZING OUR HOSPITALS

The province needs 21st-century health infrastructure that can deliver 21st-century health services. Since 1996-97, Ontario has invested $2.2 billion to modernize and upgrade hospitals in 22 communities across the province to implement directions from the Health Services Restructuring Commission, including $1.4 billion in SuperBuild investments. Together with the contributions of our partners, this multi-year investment will provide over $3 billion in new hospital construction and renovation. Many of these projects are currently underway or will start in the near future.

Despite significant Provincial investment, demand for capital investment in health infrastructure remains high as the population ages and new diagnostic and treatment technologies become available. That is why, as part of the 2001 Budget, the government announced that SuperBuild will work with the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care to develop a long-term health infrastructure strategy that will address current and future capital needs. The strategy will examine the potential for public-private partnerships and other tools to finance new capital investment in the health care system.
Selected SuperBuild Hospital Projects

The Hotel Dieu Grace Hospital, Windsor: Ontario's capital investment of $52.1 million will support construction of a new wing with an expanded emergency room, new operating rooms, and new diagnostic imaging department. The total project cost is $76.6 million. Construction is expected to be complete by late 2002.

St. Joseph's Hospital and Home, Guelph: The Province's contribution of $21.7 million will support construction of a new facility offering a variety of long-term care, rehabilitation, complex continuing care and ambulatory services. The total project cost is $31.5 million. Completion is expected in April 2002.

Northumberland Health Care Corporation, Cobourg: Ontario's capital investment of $38.3 million will support the construction of a new facility to enable the hospital to provide complex continuing care, rehabilitation, mental health, acute and emergency services in a state-of-the-art environment. The facility is estimated to cost $54.9 million. Completion is expected in the fall of 2003.

St. Joseph's Health Centre, Toronto: Ontario has committed $42.6 million in capital funding to modernize the hospital. The project's first phase to enhance emergency, ambulatory care and inpatient mental health services is underway. The final phase will accommodate various new clinical and inpatient services. The total project cost is $64.7 million. Construction is expected to be complete by 2004.

Grand River Regional Cancer Centre: Construction of the new regional cancer centre in Kitchener-Waterloo will offer state-of-the-art cancer services. The Province is providing $36.7 million in capital funding through SuperBuild towards the project cost of $52.5 million. Completion is expected in September 2002.

STRENGTHENING MUNICIPAL INFRASTRUCTURE

In the 2000 Budget, the government announced three major SuperBuild partnership initiatives designed to strengthen the economies and quality of life in communities throughout Ontario. SuperBuild will be investing $1.9 billion towards improvements in municipal water and sewer systems, roads, bridges, sport, tourism and cultural facilities, and a variety of other important local projects, including revitalization of the Toronto waterfront. Partner contributions will significantly increase the total investment.

The government is committed to moving forward quickly on these initiatives. It recognizes that municipalities are currently in the process of drafting their capital budgets for the coming year and need certainty about SuperBuild funding to be able to finalize their plans. In a period of economic uncertainty, these projects will support jobs and business for local contractors and suppliers all across Ontario.

As part of the government's commitment to fast-track this process, we are announcing the following SuperBuild projects:

Millennium Partnerships
University of Waterloo Technology Park
$13.4 million towards a $214-million proposal to create a Research and Technology Park at the University of Waterloo. The goal of this partnership, comprising the Region, the University, the City of Waterloo, and the private sector, is to create a Park that will be a catalyst for business and academia to succeed and prosper through collaborative research and development; create a research environment to stimulate delivery of technology from the laboratory to the marketplace; provide employment to co-op students and graduates; and respond to the demand for space from local businesses, serving to retain existing jobs and create new jobs in the region.
Sudbury Water Treatment Plant
$6.6 million towards a $20-million investment, bringing Sudbury's David Street Water Treatment Plant into compliance with the new Drinking Water Protection Regulation and providing clean water that meets Ontario's new stringent standards to 40,000 residents of that city.
London Economic Development/Transportation
$32 million towards a $96-million package of projects that will open up new serviced industrial land in the southern part of the City of London and address its transportation infrastructure priorities, ensuring it is able to take full advantage of its strategic location directly north of Highway 401 in the heart of southwestern Ontario.
Ottawa Economic Development and Tourism
$70 million towards a package of transportation and tourism investments in the City of Ottawa that will improve access to business parks, promote local tourism, and support the city's Smart Growth plans.

These municipalities have committed to at least match our funding commitment. Ontario and its partnering municipalities look forward to federal announcements committing it to full funding partnership as well.

During the coming weeks, the government will be making a series of announcements throughout the province as part of its commitment to fast-track project funding commitments. Hundreds of SuperBuild projects will be announced shortly.

SAFE DRINKING WATER

Safe, clean drinking water is fundamental to Ontario's quality of life. As part of Operation Clean Water, the Province established a new Ontario Drinking Water Protection Regulation in 2000. The regulation raises the standards that municipal drinking water systems must meet. SuperBuild is providing $240 million to help municipalities comply with the new regulation and carry out other critical health and safety projects.

In response to municipal concerns about the proposed funding formula for public health and safety projects, including clean drinking water projects, the Province has committed to a one-third funding share. Ontario has asked the federal government for an early commitment to its matching one-third share.

In addition, the government has asked the SuperBuild Advisory Board to guide the development of a long-term water and sewer infrastructure investment and financing strategy. As part of the strategy, the board will be evaluating options for moving to full-cost pricing and the implications of full-cost pricing for water and sewer services. This strategy is expected to be ready for the government's consideration in 2002.




Economic Data Tables

LIST OF TABLES
ONTARIO ECONOMY TABLE NUMBER
Outlook for the Ontario Economy 1
Ontario, Gross Domestic Product, 1987-2000 2
Ontario, Growth in Gross Domestic Product, 1987-2000 3
Ontario, Selected Economic Indicators, 1987-2000 4
Ontario, Economic Indicators, Annual Change, 1987-2000 5
Ontario, Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 1997-2000 6
Ontario, Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 1998-2000 7
Ontario, Real Gross Domestic Product in Selected Manufacturing Industries, 1997-2000 8
Ontario, Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product in Selected Manufacturing Industries, 1998-2000 9
Ontario, Housing Market Indicators, 1994-2000 10
Selected Financial Indicators, 1987-2000

11

G-7 COMPARISON
Ontario and the G-7, Real Gross Domestic Product Growth, 1987-2000 12
Ontario and the G-7, Employment Growth, 1987-2000 13
Ontario and the G-7, Unemployment Rates, 1987-2000 14
Ontario and the G-7, CPI Inflation Rates, 1987-2000 15
G-7, Exchange Rates, 1987-2000

16

ONTARIO, INTERNATIONAL MERCHANDISE TRADE
Ontario, International Merchandise Exports by Major Commodity, 2000 17
Ontario, International Merchandise Imports by Major Commodity, 2000 18
Ontario, International Merchandise Trade by Major Region, 2000

19

CANADA, INTERNATIONAL MERCHANDISE TRADE
Canada, International Merchandise Trade by Major Region, 2000

20

DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS
Ontario, Selected Demographic Characteristics, 1981-2016 21
Ontario, Components of Population Growth, 1991-92 to 2000-01

22

ONTARIO LABOUR MARKETS
Ontario, Labour Force, 1987-2000 23
Ontario, Employment, 1987-2000 24
Ontario, Unemployment, 1987-2000 25
Ontario, Employment Insurance (EI) and Social Assistance, 1987-2000 26
Ontario, Labour Compensation, 1987-2000 27
Ontario, Employment by Occupation, 1989-2000 28
Ontario, Distribution of Employment by Occupation, 1989-2000 29
Ontario, Employment by Industry, 1991-2000 30
Ontario, Growth in Employment by Industry, 1991-2000 31
Ontario, Employment by Economic Regions, 1989-2000 32
Ontario, Employment by Industry for Economic Regions, 2000

33

ONTARIO ECONOMIC REGIONS




(Note: Data in the tables may not add to totals due to rounding.)





Table 1 Outlook for the Ontario Economy
  (Annual Average per cent Change)
                 Actual                   Private-Sector Average
  1999 2000 2001p 2002p 2003p
Gross Domestic Product

   Real 7.4 5.3 1.1 1.3 4.3
   Nominal 7.3 5.9 3.9 2.7 6.1

Other Economic Indicators

   Retail Sales 7.3 7.3 3.3 3.5 5.2
   Housing Starts - Units (000s) 67.2 71.5 73.9 71.0 73.5
   Personal Income 6.3 6.4 4.1 2.9 5.5
   Pre-tax Corporate Profits 15.7 5.8 -2.2 -3.2 12.6
   Consumer Price Index (1992=100) 1.9 2.9 3.3 2.0 2.0

Labour Market

   Employment 3.6 3.2 1.5 0.3 2.3
   Unemployment Rate (%) 6.3 5.7 6.3 7.1 6.6

p = private-sector projection.
Sources: Statistics Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Ontario Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Finance Survey of Private-Sector Forecasts (November 2001).





Table 2 Ontario, Gross Domestic Product, 1987-2000
  ($ Billions)
  1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
Real Gross Domestic Product ($1997)

292.7 308.4 318.8 314.7 302.8 305.3 309.0
   Consumption 160.3 168.8 175.4 176.2 173.1 175.9 178.3
   Government 58.9 62.2 65.0 68.6 71.8 72.2 71.7
   Residential Construction 20.5 21.3 23.1 18.8 15.9 16.8 15.4
   Non-residential Construction 12.0 13.2 14.0 12.9 12.5 11.0 8.9
   Machinery and Equipment 14.5 17.1 17.6 17.1 16.4 17.6 16.9
   Exports 144.3 156.0 161.9 162.4 158.4 165.0 178.8
   Imports 121.3 137.2 143.9 141.5 141.3 149.8 158.7

Nominal Gross Domestic Product

231.1 256.7 279.1 283.3 283.4 287.0 294.0
Table 2 (continued) ($ billions)
  1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Real Gross Domestic Product ($1997)

327.4 339.5 343.1 360.0 377.4 405.2 426.6
   Consumption 183.7 187.6 191.7 200.7 208.0 216.6 225.6
   Government 72.5 73.1 70.6 70.5 71.2 74.8 78.8
   Residential Construction 15.8 13.6 14.9 17.2 16.8 19.2 20.2
   Non-residential Construction 7.8 7.6 9.2 10.0 10.1 11.1 10.5
   Machinery and Equipment 19.6 21.7 23.8 29.3 31.8 34.7 38.8
   Exports 197.8 214.2 225.9 242.6 260.7 290.0 307.6
   Imports 169.4 181.0 190.4 213.3 222.6 241.7 257.6

Nominal Gross Domestic Product
311.6 329.9 338.8 360.0 378.1 405.6 429.5

Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.


Table 3 Ontario, Growth in Gross Domestic Product, 1987-2000
  (Per Cent Change)
  1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
Real Gross Domestic Product ($1997)

4.7 5.4 3.4 -1.3 -3.8 0.9 1.2
   Consumption 5.2 5.3 3.9 0.5 -1.8 1.6 1.4
   Government 4.1 5.7 4.5 5.4 4.7 0.5 -0.6
   Residential Construction 15.9 3.6 8.9 -18.8 -15.2 5.4 -8.5
   Non-residential Construction 10.2 10.1 6.1 -7.8 -3.5 -11.9 -19.3
   Machinery and Equipment 12.2 17.6 3.0 -2.6 -4.0 7.1 -4.0
   Exports 2.6 8.1 3.8 0.3 -2.5 4.2 8.3
   Imports 5.7 13.1 4.9 -1.7 -0.1 6.0 5.9

Nominal Gross Domestic Product

10.7 11.1 8.7 1.5 0.1 1.3 2.4
Table 3 (continued) (Per Cent Change)
  1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Real Gross Domestic Product ($1997)

6.0 3.7 1.1 4.9 4.8 7.4 5.3
   Consumption 3.0 2.1 2.2 4.7 3.7 4.1 4.1
   Government 1.1 0.8 -3.5 0.0 0.9 5.0 5.4
   Residential Construction 2.8 -14.0 9.6 15.2 -1.8 14.0 5.0
   Non-residential Construction -12.2 -2.3 20.3 9.3 1.3 9.3 -5.2
   Machinery and Equipment 15.7 11.1 9.4 23.1 8.7 8.9 12.1
   Exports 10.6 8.3 5.4 7.4 7.5 11.2 6.0
   Imports 6.8 6.8 5.2 12.0 4.4 8.6 6.6

Nominal Gross Domestic Product
6.0 5.9 2.7 6.3 5.0 7.3 5.9

Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.




Table 4 Ontario, Selected Economic Indicators, 1987-2000
  1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
Retail Sales* ($ billions) 64.7 69.8 72.6 72.6 67.3 68.9 71.7
Housing Starts - Units (000s)
105.2 99.9 93.3 62.6 52.8 55.8 45.1
Personal Income ($ billions) 187.6 208.7 229.0 241.7 247.7 253.8 256.1
Pre-tax Corporate Profits ($ billions) 25.6 29.4 27.4 19.8 14.6 14.5 17.9
Consumer Price Index (1992 = 100) 81.4 85.3 90.2 94.6 99.0 100.0 101.8
Labour Force (000s) 5,209 5,354 5,470 5,533 5,544 5,542 5,581
Employment (000s) 4,893 5,083 5,193 5,191 5,016 4,949 4,974
Unemployment Rate (%)

6.1 5.1 5.1 6.2 9.5 10.7 10.9
Table 4 (continued) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Retail Sales* ($ billions) 76.9 79.6 80.2 86.4 92.4 99.2 106.4
Housing Starts - Units (000s)
46.6 35.8 43.1 54.1 53.8 67.2 71.5
Personal Income ($ billions) 260.6 271.4 276.3 289.5 303.1 322.2 342.8
Pre-tax Corporate Profits ($ billions) 27.9 33.1 34.2 37.5 40.3 46.6 49.3
Consumer Price Index (1992 = 100) 101.8 104.3 105.9 107.9 108.9 111.0 114.2
Labour Force (000s) 5,574 5,620 5,695 5,801 5,914 6,071 6,228
Employment (000s) 5,039 5,131 5,181 5,313 5,490 5,688 5,872
Unemployment Rate (%) 9.6 8.7 9.0 8.4 7.2 6.3 5.7

*           Retail sales include Federal Sales Taxes up to 1990 but exclude GST after 1990.
Sources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.



Table 5 Ontario, Economic Indicators, Annual Change, 1987-2000
  (Per Cent Change)
  1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
Retail Sales* 10.5 7.8 4.0 0.0 -7.2 2.3 4.1
Housing Starts 29.1 -5.0 -6.6 -32.9 -15.7 5.6 -19.1
Personal Income 9.6 11.3 9.7 5.5 2.5 2.5 0.9
Pre-tax Corporate Profits 21.8 14.7 -6.7 -27.8 -26.0 -0.8 23.1
Consumer Price Index 5.0 4.8 5.7 4.9 4.7 1.0 1.8
Labour Force 2.6 2.8 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.7
Employment 3.6

3.9 2.2 0.0 -3.4 -1.3 0.5
Table 5 (continued) (Per Cent Change)
  1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Retail Sales* 7.2 3.6 0.7 7.8 6.9 7.3 7.3
Housing Starts
3.3 -23.2 20.2 25.6 -0.4 24.9 6.4
Personal Income 1.8 4.1 1.8 4.8 4.7 6.3 6.4
Pre-tax Corporate Profits 55.8 18.7 3.3 9.9 7.4 15.7 5.8
Consumer Price Index 0.0 2.5 1.5 1.9 0.9 1.9 2.9
Labour Force -0.1 0.8 1.3 1.9 1.9 2.6 2.6
Employment 1.3 1.8 1.0 2.6 3.3 3.6 3.2

*           Retail sales include Federal Sales Taxes up to 1990 but exclude GST after 1990.
Sources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.




Table 6 Ontario, Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry 1, 1997-2000
  ($ Millions)
  1997 1998 1999 2000
Goods Producing Industries ($1997) 104,051 108,821 117,761 122,715
   Primary Industries 6,863 7,077 6,957 6,876
      Mining, Oil and Gas 2,857 2,830 2,682 2,636
   Utilities 10,019 9,603 10,064 10,514
   Construction 15,521 15,778 17,589 18,304
   Manufacturing 2 71,648 76,364 83,151 87,021

Services Producing Industries
227,333 238,421 252,940 266,446
   Trade 36,369 39,799 44,627 47,304
      Wholesale 19,926 21,770 25,170 26,637
      Retail 16,443 18,029 19,458 20,667
   Transportation and Warehousing 14,076 14,553 15,194 15,991
      Transportation 13,682 14,123 14,747 15,544
      Warehousing and Storage 395 429 447 447
   Information and Cultural Industries 11,434 12,455 15,150 17,293
   Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, and Leasing 71,775 74,394 77,638 81,218
   Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 13,909 15,377 17,097 19,159
   Management, Administrative and Other Support Services 7,298 8,118 8,890 9,747
   Educational Services 16,920 17,377 17,335 17,316
   Health Care and Social Assistance 19,705 20,006 19,895 20,143
   Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 3,169 3,221 3,329 3,519
   Accommodation and Food Services 6,999 7,446 7,986 8,214
   Other Services 7,404 7,599 7,635 7,796
   Government Services 18,276 18,077 18,165 18,747
      Federal 8,466 8,448 8,724 8,973
      Provincial 4,577 4,532 4,511 4,616
      Local 5,232 5,097 4,929 5,158

Total Production ($1997) at Basic Prices
331,384 347,242 370,702 389,160
Indirect Taxes on Products Less Subsidies
plus Miscellaneous Adjustments
28,569 30,155 34,532 37,465
Gross Domestic Product ($1997) at Market Prices 359,953 377,397 405,234 426,625

Notes:
1.       Gross Domestic Product on an industry basis is at basic prices, whereas GDP on an expenditure basis is at market prices.
2.       See Table 8 for detailed manufacturing industries.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.





Table 7 Ontario, Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry 1, 1997-2000
  (Per Cent Change)
  1998 1999 2000
Goods Producing Industries ($1997) 4.6 8.2 4.2
   Primary Industries 3.1 -1.7 -1.2
      Mining, Oil and Gas -0.9 -5.2 -1.7
   Utilities -4.2 4.8 4.5
   Construction 1.7 11.5 4.1
   Manufacturing 2 6.6 8.9 4.7

Services Producing Industries
4.9 6.1 5.3
   Trade 9.4 12.1 6.0
      Wholesale 9.3 15.6 5.8
      Retail 9.6 7.9 6.2
   Transportation and Warehousing 3.4 4.4 5.2
      Transportation 3.2 4.4 5.4
      Warehousing and Storage 8.8 4.1 0.1
   Information and Cultural Industries 8.9 21.6 14.1
   Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, and Leasing 3.6 4.4 4.6
   Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 10.6 11.2 12.1
   Management, Administrative and Other Support Services 11.2 9.5 9.6
   Educational Services 2.7 -0.2 -0.1
   Health Care and Social Assistance 1.5 -0.6 1.2
   Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 1.7 3.3 5.7
   Accommodation and Food Services 6.4 7.3 2.9
   Other Services 2.6 0.5 2.1
   Government Services -1.1 0.5 3.2
      Federal -0.2 3.3 2.8
      Provincial -1.0 -0.5 2.3
      Local -2.6 -3.3 4.7

Total Production ($1997) at Basic Prices

4.8 6.8 5.0
Gross Domestic Product ($1997) at Market Prices 4.8 7.4 5.3

Notes:
1.       Gross Domestic Product on an industry basis is at basic prices, whereas GDP on an expenditure basis is at market prices.
2.       See Table 9 for detailed manufacturing industries.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.



Table 8 Ontario, Real Gross Domestic Product in
Selected Manufacturing Industries, 1997-2000
  ($ Millions)
  1997 1998 1999 2000
Manufacturing ( $1997)
71,648 76,364 83,151 87,021
Food 6,404 6,776 6,847 7,072
Beverage & Tobacco 2,440 2,602 2,639 2,634
Textile & Textile Product Mills 742 819 808 758
Clothing 908 943 906 879
Leather & Allied Products 157 167 155 114
Paper 3,459 3,366 3,703 3,787
Printing 2,216 2,196 2,197 2,190
Petroleum & Coal Products 595 620 772 819
Chemical 6,138 6,370 6,538 6,555
Rubber Products 1,308 1,321 1,436 1,635
Non-Metallic Mineral Products 1,840 2,069 2,278 2,357
Primary & Fabricated Metal Products 9,987 10,895 11,314 11,539
Machinery, Electrical and Electronic Products 11,991 13,121 14,725 17,705
Transportation Equipment 16,043 16,923 19,691 19,697
Furniture Products 1,822 2,163 2,442 2,815
Other Manufacturing 5,599 6,015 6,699 6,465

Note:    Gross Domestic Product on an industry basis is at basic prices, whereas GDP on an expenditure basis is at market prices.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.



Table 9 Ontario, Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product in
Selected Manufacturing Industries, 1998-2000
  (Per Cent Change)
  1998 1999 2000
Manufacturing ( $1997)
6.6 8.9 4.7
Food 5.8 1.1 3.3
Beverage & Tobacco 6.6 1.4 -0.2
Textile & Textile Product Mills 10.4 -1.3 -6.2
Clothing 3.8 -3.9 -3.0
Leather & Allied Products 6.1 -6.8 -26.4
Paper -2.7 10.0 2.3
Printing -0.9 0.0 -0.3
Petroleum & Coal Products 4.1 24.4 6.2
Chemical 3.8 2.6 0.3
Rubber Products 1.0 8.8 13.8
Non-Metallic Mineral Products 12.4 10.1 3.5
Primary & Fabricated Metal Products 9.1 3.8 2.0
Machinery, Electrical and Electronic Products 9.4 12.2 20.2
Transportation Equipment 5.5 16.4 0.0
Furniture Products 18.7 12.9 15.3
Other Manufacturing 7.4 11.4 -3.5

Note:    Gross Domestic Product on an industry basis is at basic prices, whereas GDP on an expenditure basis is at market prices.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.



Table 10 Ontario, Housing Market Indicators, 1994-2000
  1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Residential Construction  
Current $ Millions* 15,353 13,279 14,549 17,154 17,228 20,128 21,799
Per cent change

5.0 -13.5 9.6 17.9 0.4 16.8 8.3
   New Construction* 7,461 5,962 6,554 8,257 8,350 10,573 11,775
Per cent change

12.2 -20.1 9.9 27.2 1.1 26.6 11.4
   Alterations and Improvements* 5,058 4,996 5,339 5,711 5,760 6,087 6,370
Per cent change

-4.7 -1.2 6.9 6.1 0.9 5.7 4.6
   Transfer Costs* 2,834 2,321 2,656 3,186 3,118 3,468 3,654
Per cent change

6.2 -18.1 14.4 19.0 -2.1 11.2 5.4
Housing Starts (000s)* 46.6 35.8 43.1 54.1 53.8 67.2 71.5
Per cent change

3.3 -23.2 20.2 25.6 -0.4 24.9 6.4
Home Resales (000s)* 115.2 105.0 137.9 140.6 138.5 148.7 147.0
Per cent change

7.8 -8.8 31.4 1.9 -1.5 7.4 -1.1
Average Resale Home Price ($)* 160,158 154,606 155,662 164,382 167,115 174,049 183,869
Per cent change 2.3 -3.5 0.7 5.6 1.7 4.1 5.6

*            per cent change is shown on second line.
Sources: Statistics Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Canadian Real Estate Association and Ontario Ministry of Finance.





Table 11 Selected Financial Indicators, 1987-2000
  (Per Cent)
  1987 1987 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
Interest Rates  
   Bank Rate 8.4 9.7 12.3 13.0 9.0 6.8 5.1
   Prime Rate 9.5 10.8 13.3 14.1 9.9 7.5 5.9
   10-Year Government Bonds 9.5 9.8 9.8 10.8 9.4 8.1 7.2
   Three-month T-Bills 8.1 9.5 12.1 12.8 8.7 6.6 4.8
Mortgage Rates  
   5-Year Rate 11.2 11.6 12.1 13.4 11.1 9.5 8.8
   1-Year Rate 9.9 10.8 12.9 13.4 10.1 7.9 6.9
Household Debt Burden*  
   Consumer 19.2 20.1 20.5 21.2 21.0 20.9 20.9
   Mortgage 42.7 46.4 49.1 53.1 55.7 59.0 61.9
   Total 62.0

66.5 69.6 74.3 76.7 79.9 82.8
Table 11(continued) (Per Cent )
  1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Interest Rates  
   Bank Rate 5.8 7.3 4.5 3.5 5.1 4.9 5.8
   Prime Rate 6.9 8.6 6.1 5.0 6.6 6.4 7.3
   10-Year Government Bonds 8.4 8.1 7.2 6.1 5.3 5.6 5.9
   Three-month T-Bills 5.5 6.9 4.2 3.3 4.7 4.7 5.5
Mortgage Rates  
   5-Year Rate 9.5 9.2 7.9 7.1 6.9 7.6 8.4
   1-Year Rate 7.8 8.4 6.2 5.5 6.5 6.8 7.9
Household Debt Burden*  
   Consumer 22.2 23.0 24.2 25.8 27.4 28.1 29.8
   Mortgage 65.1 65.2 66.7 67.9 68.5 68.2 67.6
   Total 87.3 88.2 91.0 93.7 96.0 96.3 97.3

*    Canadian household debt as a share of personal disposable income.
Note: All data are annual averages.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada.






Table 12 Ontario and the G-7, Real Gross Domestic Product Growth, 1987-2000
  (Per Cent)
  1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
Ontario 4.7 5.4 3.4 -1.3 -3.8 0.9 1.2
Canada
4.2 4.9 2.6 0.2 -2.1 0.9 2.4
France 2.5 4.2 4.1 2.6 1.0 1.5 -1.0
Germany 1.5 3.7 3.6 5.7 5.0 2.2 -1.1
Italy 3.0 3.9 2.9 2.0 1.4 0.8 -0.9
Japan 4.5 6.5 5.3 5.3 3.1 0.9 0.4
United Kingdom 4.4 5.2 2.1 0.7 -1.5 0.1 2.3
United States 3.4

4.2 3.5 1.8 -0.5 3.0 2.7
Table 12 (continued) (Per Cent)
  1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Ontario 6.0 3.7 1.1 4.9 4.8 7.4 5.3
Canada
4.7 2.8 1.6 4.3 3.9 5.1 4.4
France 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.9 3.5 3.0 3.2
Germany 2.3 1.7 0.8 1.4 2.1 1.6 3.0
Italy 2.2 2.9 1.1 2.0 1.8 1.6 2.9
Japan 1.0 1.6 3.5 1.8 -1.1 0.8 1.5
United Kingdom 4.4 2.8 2.6 3.5 2.6 2.3 3.1
United States 4.0 2.7 3.6 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.1

Sources: OECD, U.S. Department of Commerce and Statistics Canada.


Table 13 Ontario and the G-7, Employment Growth, 1987-2000
  (Per Cent)
  1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
Ontario 3.6 3.9 2.2 0.0 -3.4 -1.3 0.5
Canada
2.9 3.2 2.2 0.8 -1.8 -0.7 0.8
France 0.4 1.0 1.5 0.8 0.0 -0.6 -1.2
Germany 0.7 0.8 1.5 3.0 2.5 -1.5 -1.4
Italy -0.3 0.5 -0.1 1.2 0.7 -1.0 -3.1
Japan 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.1 0.2
United Kingdom 2.6 4.3 2.4 0.3 -3.0 -2.1 -0.4
United States 2.6

2.2 2.1 1.2 -0.9 0.7 1.5
Table 13 (continued) (Per Cent)
  1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Ontario 1.3 1.8 1.0 2.6 3.3 3.6 3.2
Canada
2.0 1.9 0.8 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.6
France 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.4 2.4
Germany -0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.9 1.1 1.5
Italy -1.6 -0.6 0.5 0.4 1.1 1.2 1.9
Japan 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 -0.7 -0.8 -0.2
United Kingdom 1.0 1.4 1.1 2.0 1.1 1.3 1.0
United States 2.3 1.5 1.4 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.3

Sources: OECD, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Statistics Canada.





Table 14 Ontario and the G-7, Unemployment Rates, 1987-2000
  (Per Cent)
  1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
Ontario 6.1 5.1 5.1 6.2 9.5 10.7 10.9
Canada
8.8 7.8 7.5 8.1 10.3 11.2 11.4
France 10.5 10.0 9.3 8.9 9.4 10.4 11.7
Germany 7.6 7.6 6.9 6.2 5.4 6.3 7.6
Italy 10.2 10.5 10.2 9.1 8.6 8.8 10.2
Japan 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.5
United Kingdom 10.2 7.8 6.1 5.9 8.2 10.2 10.3
United States 6.2

5.5 5.3 5.6 6.8 7.5 6.9
Table 14 (continued) (Per Cent)
  1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Ontario 9.6 8.7 9.0 8.4 7.2 6.3 5.7
Canada
10.4 9.4 9.6 9.1 8.3 7.6 6.8
France 12.2 11.6 12.3 12.4 11.8 11.2 9.7
Germany 8.2 7.9 8.6 9.5 8.9 8.3 7.8
Italy 11.2 11.7 11.7 11.8 11.9 11.5 10.7
Japan 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4 4.1 4.7 4.7
United Kingdom 9.4 8.5 7.9 6.5 5.9 6.0 5.5
United States 6.1 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.0

Sources: OECD, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Statistics Canada.





Table 15 Ontario and the G-7, CPI Inflation Rates, 1987-2000
  (Per Cent)
  1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
Ontario 5.0 4.8 5.7 4.9 4.7 1.0 1.8
Canada
4.4 4.0 5.0 4.8 5.6 1.5 1.8
France 3.3 2.7 3.5 3.6 3.2 2.4 2.1
Germany 0.2 1.3 2.8 2.7 3.6 5.1 4.4
Italy 4.7 5.1 6.3 6.5 6.3 5.3 4.6
Japan 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.1 3.3 1.7 1.2
United Kingdom 4.1 4.9 7.8 9.5 5.9 3.7 1.6
United States 3.6

4.1 4.8 5.4 4.2 3.0 3.0
Table 15 (continued) (Per Cent)
  1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Ontario 0.0 2.5 1.5 1.9 0.9 1.9 2.9
Canada
0.2 2.2 1.6 1.6 0.9 1.7 2.7
France 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.2 0.8 0.5 1.7
Germany 2.8 1.7 1.4 1.9 0.9 0.6 1.9
Italy 4.1 5.2 4.0 2.0 2.0 1.6 2.6
Japan 0.7 -0.1 0.1 1.7 0.6 -0.3 -0.6
United Kingdom 2.5 3.4 2.4 3.1 3.4 1.6 2.9
United States 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.3 1.6 2.2 3.4

Sources: OECD, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Statistics Canada.





Table 16 G-7, Exchange Rates, 1987-2000
  (Foreign Currency per Canadian Dollar)
  1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
Euro* - - - - - - -
France 4.525 4.831 5.376 4.651 4.902 4.367 4.386
Germany 1.353 1.422 1.585 1.381 1.441 1.289 1.280
Italy 980.4 1,052.6 1,162.8 1,020.4 1,075.3 1,020.4 1,219.5
Japan 108.8 104.1 116.3 123.5 117.2 104.7 85.8
United Kingdom 0.460 0.456 0.515 0.480 0.493 0.469 0.516
United States 0.754

0.812 0.845 0.857 0.873 0.827 0.775
Table 16 (continued) (Foreign Currency per Canadian Dollar)
  1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Euro* - - - - - 0.631 0.730
France 4.050 3.631 3.750 4.211 3.968 4.139 4.787
Germany 1.184 1.043 1.103 1.251 1.183 1.234 1.427
Italy 1,176.5 1,186.2 1,131.2 1,228.5 1,168.2 1,222.5 1,412.4
Japan 74.7 68.0 79.7 87.3 87.8 76.3 72.6
United Kingdom 0.478 0.461 0.470 0.441 0.407 0.416 0.444
United States 0.732 0.729 0.733 0.722 0.674 0.673 0.673

*             Introduced January 4, 1999.
Note:      All data are annual averages.
Source:   Bank of Canada.





Table 17 Ontario, International Merchandise Exports by Major Commodity1 , 2000
  Value
($ Millions)
Per Cent
of Total
Motor Vehicles, Parts and Accessories 80,162 38.7
Machinery and Mechanical Appliances 25,781 12.5
Electrical Machinery and Equipment 11,169 5.4
Plastics and Plastic Articles 7,120 3.4
Non-ferrous Metals and Allied Products 6,994 3.4
Pulp; Paper and Allied Products 6,796 3.3
Furniture and Fixtures, Signs, Prefabricated Buildings 5,352 2.6
Prepared Foodstuffs, Beverages and Tobacco 4,006 1.9
Articles of Iron and Steel 3,682 1.8
Scientific, Professional and Photo Equipment, Clocks 3,589 1.7
Precious Metals, Stones and Coins 3,212 1.6
Other Chemical Products 3,029 1.5
Wood and Wood Products 3,012 1.5
Mineral Products 2,926 1.4
Iron and Steel 2,616 1.3
Aircraft, Spacecraft and Parts 2,593 1.3
Rubber and Rubber Articles 2,104 1.0
Articles of Stone, Cement, Ceramic and Glass 1,583 0.8
Organic Chemicals 1,428 0.7
Textiles and Textile Articles 1,382 0.7
Live Animals; Animal Products 1,360 0.7
Vegetable Products; Fats and Oils 1,340 0.6
Inorganic Chemicals; Chemical Elements and Compounds 1,201 0.6
Pharmaceutical Products 965 0.5
Railway, Rolling Stock and Parts 957 0.5
Printed Matter 868 0.4
Apparel and Clothing Accessories 792 0.4
Toys, Games and Sports Equipment 582 0.3
Hides, Leather, Travel Goods and Furs 375 0.2
Miscellaneous Articles; Works of Art 319 0.2
Other Textile and Clothing Articles 174 0.1
Ships, Boats and Floating Structures 67 0.0
Footwear 55 0.0
Headgear, Umbrellas, Artificial Flowers 41 0.0
Other Commodities 2 19,438 9.4

Total Exports
207,065 100.0

Notes:

  1. Ontario Ministry of Economic Development and Trade definition of product groupings based on two-digit Harmonized System Codes. Data are customs based.
  2. Other Commodities includes re-exports and special transactions.

Source: Industry Canada.





Table 18 Ontario, International Merchandise Imports by Major Commodity1 , 2000
  Value
($ Millions)
Per Cent
of Total
Motor Vehicles, Parts and Accessories 48,978 21.6
Machinery and Mechanical Appliances 47,072 20.7
Electrical Machinery and Equipment 31,671 14.0
Scientific, Professional and Photo Equipment, Clocks 8,976 4.0
Plastics and Plastic Articles 8,256 3.6
Non-Ferrous Metals and Allied Products 7,899 3.5
Other Chemical Products 6,990 3.1
Prepared Foodstuffs, Beverages and Tobacco 4,801 2.1
Pulp; Paper and Allied Products 4,520 2.0
Articles of Iron and Steel 4,490 2.0
Furniture and Fixtures, Signs, Prefabricated Buildings 4,089 1.8
Iron and Steel 3,882 1.7
Pharmaceutical Products 3,747 1.7
Vegetable Products; Fats and Oils 3,692 1.6
Rubber and Rubber Articles 3,583 1.6
Organic Chemicals 3,128 1.4
Articles of Stone, Cement, Ceramic and Glass 3,088 1.4
Textiles and Textile Articles 2,974 1.3
Mineral Products 2,966 1.3
Printed Matter 2,362 1.0
Apparel and Clothing Accessories 2,075 0.9
Aircraft, Spacecraft and Parts 1,786 0.8
Precious Metals, Stones and Coins 1,765 0.8
Toys, Games and Sports Equipment 1,720 0.8
Live Animals; Animal Products 1,563 0.7
Wood and Wood Products 1,413 0.6
Inorganic Chemicals; Chemical Elements and Compounds 1,134 0.5
Hides, Leather, Travel Goods and Furs 703 0.3
Railway, Rolling Stock and Parts 697 0.3
Footwear 693 0.3
Miscellaneous Articles; Works of Art 668 0.3
Other Textile and Clothing Articles 493 0.2
Ships, Boats and Floating Structures 225 0.1
Headgear, Umbrellas, Artificial Flowers 145 0.1
Other Commodities 2 4,769 2.1

Total Imports
227,011 100.0

Notes:

  1. Ontario Ministry of Economic Development and Trade definition of product groupings based on two-digit Harmonized System Codes. Data are customs based.
  2. Other Commodities includes trans-shipments from one province to another through a foreign jurisdiction and special transactions.

Source: Industry Canada.





Table 19 Ontario, International Merchandise Trade by Major Region, 2000
  Exports
($ Millions)
Per Cent
of Total
Imports
($ Millions)
Per Cent
of Total
United States 193,119 93.3 167,438 73.8
Western Europe 6,775 3.3 15,738 6.9
   European Union 5,899 2.8 14,601 6.4
   Other Western Europe 876 0.4 1,137 0.5
Eastern Europe 330 0.2 809 0.4
Asia 3,492 1.7 25,457 11.2
Oceania (Pacific) 406 0.2 633 0.3
   Pacific Rim 3,768 1.8 25,232 11.1
Caribbean 325 0.2 172 0.1
Latin America 1,845 0.9 12,056 5.3
   Mexico 964 0.5 9,978 4.4
Middle East 465 0.2 556 0.2
Africa 307 0.1 495 0.2
Re-imports (Canada) 0 0.0 3,657 1.6

Total
207,065 100.0 227,011 100.0

Note:      Data are customs based, and include re-exports.
Source:   Industry Canada.






Table 20 Canada, International Merchandise Trade by Major Region, 2000
  Exports
($ Millions)
Per Cent
of Total
Imports
($ Millions)
Per Cent
of Total
United States 359,289 87.0 229,564 64.4
Western Europe 20,553 5.0 42,818 12.0
   European Union 19,122 4.6 36,877 10.3
   Other Western Europe 1,432 0.3 5,941 1.7
Eastern Europe 760 0.2 1,902 0.5
Asia 20,932 5.1 49,532 13.9
Oceania (Pacific) 1,399 0.3 2,090 0.6
   Pacific Rim 21,490 5.2 49,610 13.9
Caribbean 889 0.2 871 0.2
Latin America 5,409 1.3 17,585 4.9
   Mexico 2,036 0.5 12,067 3.4
Middle East 2,065 0.5 2,839 0.8
Africa 1,569 0.4 2,761 0.8
Re-imports (Canada) 0 0.0 6,754 1.9

Total
412,867 100.0 356,718 100.0

Data are customs based.
Source:   Industry Canada.





Table 21 Ontario, Selected Demographic Characteristics, 1981-20161
  Estimates 2 Projections 3
  1981 1991 2001 2006 2011 2016
Total Population (000s) 8,811 10,428 11,874 12,526 13,199 13,860
Annual Average Growth      
   Over Preceding Decade (%) 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0

Median Age (Years)

30.4 33.3 36.8 38.5 39.8 40.8
Age Group Shares (%)            
   0-14 21.6 20.1 19.2 17.7 16.3 15.8
   15-24 19.0 14.5 13.1 13.4 13.4 12.5
   25-44 29.5 34.2 31.9 29.7 27.9 27.5
   45-64 19.9 19.6 23.2 26.1 28.3 28.3
   65-74 6.1 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.6 9.1
   75+ 3.8 4.6 5.6 6.2 6.5 6.8

Total Fertility Rate

1.6 1.6 NA 1.5 1.5 1.5
Life Expectancy (Years)            
   Male 72.5 75.0 NA 77.6 78.3 79.1
   Female 79.2 81.0 NA 82.3 82.8 83.3

Families (000s)4
2,279 2,727 NA NA NA NA
Households (000s)4 2,970 3,638 NA 4,857 5,262 5,667

Notes:

  1. Population figures are for July (Census year).
  2. Estimates by Statistics Canada based on the 1996 Census adjusted for net Census undercoverage.
  3. Projections by Ontario Ministry of Finance released in July 2000 are based on the 1999 postcensal estimates.
  4. Census data and projections by Statistics Canada.

Source: Statistics Canada population estimates and projections and Ontario Ministry of Finance population projections.




Table 22 Ontario, Components of Population Growth, 1991-92 to 2000-011
  (Thousands)
  1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96
Population at Beginning of Period

10,427.6 10,570.5 10,690.4 10,827.5 10,964.9
Births 152.1 148.7 147.1 147.2 143.1
Deaths 73.6 74.6 77.3 78.2 77.7
Immigrants 128.3 145.0 119.6 119.8 115.4
Emigrants 19.5 18.6 19.2 19.9 20.0
Interprovincial Arrivals 70.8 66.4 64.6 66.9 69.1
Interprovincial Departures 81.9 80.6 74.0 69.7 71.9
Net Non-Permanent Residents -21.7 -54.4 -12.0 -16.9 -12.2
Population Growth During Period 142.9 120.0 137.1 137.4 136.0

Population at End of Period 2

10,570.5 10,690.4 10,827.5 10,964.9 11,100.9
Population Growth (%) 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2
Table 22 (continued) (Thousands)
  1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01
Population at Beginning of Period

11,100.9 11,249.5 11,387.3 11,522.7 11,685.3
Births 136.3 133.2 132.1 131.4 130.7
Deaths 80.4 80.1 81.4 83.7 87.6
Immigrants 119.6 106.5 91.8 116.8 149.9
Emigrants 25.0 27.8 28.9 30.5 32.2
Interprovincial Arrivals 70.0 75.2 72.8 78.9 85.8
Interprovincial Departures 68.0 66.0 56.1 56.5 67.9
Net Change in Non-permanent Residents -3.9 -3.2 5.0 6.2 10.4
Population Growth During Period 148.8 139.7 136.1 161.7 189.1

Population at End of Period2

11,249.5 11,387.3 11,522.7 11,685.3 11,874.4
Population Growth (%) 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6

Notes:

  1. Data are from July 1 to June 30 (Census year).
  2. The sum of the components does not equal the total change in population due to residual errors.

Source: Statistics Canada.





Table 23 Ontario, Labour Force, 1987-2000
  1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
Labour Force (000s) 5,209 5,354 5,470 5,533 5,544 5,542 5,581
Annual Labour Force Growth (%) 2.6 2.8 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.7
Participation Rate (%)
   Male 79.0 78.6 78.8 78.0 76.4 75.1 74.4
   Female 59.5 61.0 61.3 61.4 61.0 60.0 59.5
Share of Labour Force (%)
   Youth (15-24) 22.4 21.4 20.6 19.6 18.6 18.1 17.3
   Older Worker (45+) 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.6 27.4 28.0

Table 23 (continued)  
  1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Labour Force (000s) 5,574 5,620 5,695 5,801 5,914 6,071 6,228
Annual Labour Force Growth (%) -0.1 0.8 1.3 1.9 1.9 2.6 2.6
Participation Rate (%)
   Male 73.5 72.9 72.6 72.8 72.6 73.2 73.4
   Female 58.8 58.7 58.9 59.1 59.7 60.4 61.2
Share of Labour Force (%)
   Youth (15-24) 16.8 16.4 16.2 15.9 15.7 16.0 16.1
   Older Worker (45+) 28.8 29.1 29.5 30.2 30.6 31.3 32.0

Source:    Statistics Canada.






Table 24 Ontario, Employment, 1987-2000
  1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
Total Employment (000s) 4,893 5,083 5,193 5,191 5,016 4,949 4,974
   Male 2,760 2,823 2,875 2,851 2,717 2,661 2,688
   Female 2,133 2,260 2,318 2,340 2,299 2,288 2,286
Annual Employment Growth (%) 3.6 3.9 2.2 0.0 -3.4 -1.3 0.5
Net Job Creation (000s) 171 190 111 -2 -176 -67 25
Private-sector Employment (000s) 4,000 4,135 4,225 4,174 3,986 3,899 3,912
Broader Public-sector
    Employment (000s)1 892 947 969 1,018 1,029 1,050 1,062
Manufacturing Employment
    (% of total) 21.2 20.8 20.1 19.2 18.0 17.3 16.5
Services Employment
   (% of total) 68.0 68.7 68.9 70.0 71.7 72.7 73.8
Part-time (% of total) 16.3 16.7 16.7 17.1 18.3 18.6 19.7
Average Hours Worked
    Per Week 2 37.7 38.2 38.5 38.1 37.3 36.7 37.2

Table 24 (continued) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Total Employment (000s) 5,039 5,131 5,181 5,313 5,490 5,688 5,872
   Male 2,729 2,777 2,798 2,879 2,952 3,058 3,146
   Female 2,311 2,353 2,383 2,435 2,538 2,630 2,726
Annual Employment Growth (%) 1.3 1.8 1.0 2.6 3.3 3.6 3.2
Net Job Creation (000s) 65 91 50 133 177 198 184
Private-sector Employment (000s) 3,974 4,078 4,163 4,317 4,466 4,653 4,817
Broader Public-sector
    Employment (000s)1 1,065 1,052 1,018 996 1,024 1,035 1,055
Manufacturing Employment
    (% of total) 16.6 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.4 18.7
Services Employment
   (% of total) 74.0 73.7 73.6 73.4 73.2 72.7 72.7
Part-time (% of total) 19.0 18.8 19.3 19.2 18.6 18.0 17.9
Average Hours Worked
    Per Week 2 37.6 37.2 37.6 37.8 37.8 37.9 38.1

Notes:

  1. Broader Public Sector includes Public Administration, Health Care and Social Assistance, and Educational Services, except for certain private-sector components such as offices of health practitioners and some private-sector educational institutions. Industry groupings are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
  2. Average actual hours worked per week at all jobs, excluding persons not at work.

Source: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.





Table 25 Ontario, Unemployment, 1987-2000
  1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
Total Unemployment (000s) 316 271 276 342 528 593 607
Unemployment Rate (%) 6.1 5.1 5.1 6.2 9.5 10.7 10.9
   Male 5.5 4.7 4.8 6.2 10.0 11.9 11.5
   Female 6.8 5.6 5.4 6.1 8.9 9.3 10.1
   Toronto CMA 4.5 3.8 4.0 5.2 9.5 11.2 11.4
    Northern Ontario 9.7 8.0 7.3 8.1 11.4 12.6 12.4
   Youth (15-24) 9.4 7.9 7.7 10.0 15.0 17.4 17.5
   Older Workers (45+) 4.4 3.6 3.3 4.0 6.8 7.4 7.6
Unemployment (% of total)
   Long-term (27 weeks+) 16.7 12.8 13.2 13.7 22.5 29.7 33.4
    Youth (15-24) 34.8 33.2 31.3 31.7 29.3 29.5 27.8
    Older Workers (45+) 18.8 18.3 17.0 16.9 19.0 19.0 19.5
Average Duration (weeks)1 16.1 13.4 13.5 13.7 18.5 23.3 26.9
    Youth (15-24) 10.8 8.6 8.4 10.0 13.5 16.6 18.4
    Older Workers (45+) 22.2 20.0 19.5 18.9 22.7 29.7 33.7

Table 25 (continued) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Total Unemployment (000s) 535 489 515 488 424 383 356
Unemployment Rate (%) 9.6 8.7 9.0 8.4 7.2 6.3 5.7
   Male 10.0 8.9 9.0 8.2 7.1 6.2 5.5
   Female 9.1 8.5 9.0 8.7 7.2 6.4 5.9
   Toronto CMA 10.4 8.6 9.1 8.0 7.0 6.1 5.5
    Northern Ontario 11.6 9.9 10.7 10.4 11.0 9.0 8.2
   Youth (15-24) 15.5 14.6 14.9 16.4 14.4 13.1 11.8
   Older Workers (45+) 7.0 6.5 6.4 5.9 5.3 4.2 4.0
Unemployment (% of total)
   Long-term (27 weeks+) 32.3 29.4 28.3 25.5 21.8 19.0 15.4
    Youth (15-24) 27.1 27.5 26.6 30.9 31.5 33.3 33.1
    Older Workers (45+) 21.1 21.7 20.8 21.3 22.6 20.7 22.4
Average Duration (weeks)1 27.5 25.8 24.8 26.6 23.2 21.2 17.8
    Youth (15-24) 17.8 16.2 15.4 13.7 12.7 11.5 9.8
    Older Workers (45+) 34.6 33.4 31.1 42.6 39.2 33.6 28.1

Notes:

  1. Prior to 1997, unemployment of 100 or more weeks was recorded as 99 due to data processing limitations. This restriction was removed for data after 1996.

Source: Statistics Canada.





Table 26 Ontario, Employment Insurance (EI) and Social Assistance, 1987-2000
  1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
EI Regular Beneficiaries (000s) 190 172 167 225 319 322 294
EI Maximum Insurable Earnings ($)1 530 565 605 640 680 710 745
EI Maximum Weekly Entitlement ($) 318 339 363 384 408 426 425
EI Premium Rate
   Employer ($/$100 Insurable Earnings) 3.29 3.29 2.73 3.15 3.15/3.922 4.20 4.20
    Employee ($/$100 Insurable Earnings) 2.35 2.35 1.95 2.25 2.25/2.802 3.00 3.00
EI Total Benefits Paid ($ millions)3 2,387 2,370 2,470 3,419 5,362 5,845 5,406
EI Premiums Paid ($ millions)3 4,379 4,804 4,346 5,281 6,058 7,279 7,400
Social Assistance Caseload (000s) 279 289 307 366 499 608 660

Table 26 (continued) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Regular Beneficiaries (000s) 228 181 180 151 131 110 101
EI Maximum Insurable Earnings ($)1 780 815 750 39,000 39,000 39,000 39,000
EI Maximum Weekly Entitlement ($) 429 448 413 413 413 413 413
EI Premium Rate
   Employer ($/$100 Insurable Earnings) 4.30 4.20 4.13 4.06 3.78 3.57 3.36
    Employee ($/$100 Insurable Earnings) 3.07 3.00 2.95 2.90 2.70 2.55 2.40
EI Total Benefits Paid ($ millions)3 4,511 3,796 3,653 3,436 3,141 3,051 2,787
EI Premiums Paid ($ millions)3 7,797 7,997 7,555 7,980 7,984 7,5874 7,6774
Social Assistance Caseload (000s) 673 660 600 568 5295 4795 4355

Notes:

  1. Effective January 1, 1997, the maximum weekly insurable earnings of $750 was eliminated and replaced with an annual maximum set at $39,000.
  2. Premium rates for 1991 changed at mid-year.
  3. Employment Insurance benefit payments are on a cash basis; premiums are paid on an accrual basis.
  4. Premiums paid in 1999 and 2000 are Ontario Ministry of Finance estimates.
  5. The number of social assistance cases from 1998 to 2000 includes recipients of the Ontario Works program, the Ontario Disability Support Program, Temporary Care Assistance and the Assistance for Children with Severe Disabilities program. The Ontario Works Act was proclaimed in May 1998 and replaced the General Welfare Act. The Ontario Disability Support Program Act was proclaimed in June 1998.

Source: Statistics Canada, Human Resources Development Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance and Ontario Ministry of Community and Social Services.





Table 27 Ontario, Labour Compensation, 1987-2000
  1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
Average Weekly Earnings ($)1 NA NA NA NA 576.88 599.56 612.76
   Increase(%) NA NA NA NA NA 3.9 2.2
CPI Inflation (%) 5.0 4.8 5.7 4.9 4.7 1.0 1.8
AWE Increase Less CPI Inflation (%) NA NA NA NA NA 2.9 0.4
AWE - Manufacturing ($) NA NA NA NA 683.30 716.55 739.20
   Increase(%) NA NA NA NA NA 4.9 3.2
   Increase Less CPI Inflation(%) NA NA NA NA NA 3.9 1.4
Wage Settlement Increases (%)2
   All Sectors 3.9 4.7 5.6 6.5 4.9 2.7 1.0
   Public 4.6 4.7 5.8 6.8 5.0 2.6 0.5
   Private 2.7 4.6 5.1 6.3 4.6 2.7 1.9
Person Days Lost Due to Strikes and
   Lockouts (000s) 1,109 1,362 869 2,958 454 578 371
Minimum Wage at Year End ($/hour) 4.55 4.75 5.00 5.40 6.00 6.35 6.35

Table 27 (continued) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Average Weekly Earnings ($)1 628.50 634.47 649.71 663.51 672.36 681.91 697.92
   Increase(%) 2.6 0.9 2.4 2.1 1.3 1.4 2.3
CPI Inflation (%) 0.0 2.5 1.5 1.9 0.9 1.9 2.9
AWE Increase Less CPI Inflation (%) 2.6 -1.6 0.9 0.2 0.4 -0.5 -0.6
AWE - Manufacturing ($) 761.95 770.80 794.09 821.28 841.39 851.17 869.24
   Increase(%) 3.1 1.2 3.0 3.4 2.4 1.2 2.1
   Increase Less CPI Inflation(%) 3.1 -1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 -0.7 -0.8
Wage Settlement Increases (%)2
   All Sectors 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.6
   Public 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.4 2.7
   Private 1.1 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.1 2.4
Person Days Lost Due to Strikes and
   Lockouts (000s) 488 477 1,915 1,904 1,061 651 650
Minimum Wage at Year End ($/hour) 6.70 6.85 6.85 6.85 6.85 6.85 6.85

Notes:

  1. Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) includes overtime. In 2001, Statistics Canada changed its estimates of AWE from the 1980 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). AWE based on NAICS is available only back to 1991.
  2. Wage settlement increases are for collective agreements covering 200 or more employees.

Source: Statistics Canada, Ontario Ministry of Labour and Ontario Ministry of Finance.





Table 28 Ontario, Employment by Occupation, 1989-2000
(Thousands)
  1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Management 512 533 555 540 569 548
Business, Finance & Administrative 1,065 1,068 1,011 1,001 961 965
Natural & Applied Sciences 249 256 265 253 247 250
Health 234 233 248 241 255 254
Social Science, Education, Government
    Service & Religion 298 316 321 344 344 375
Art, Culture, Recreation & Sport 137 133 122 129 138 150
Sales & Service 1,182 1,203 1,168 1,185 1,221 1,216
Trades, Transport & Equipment Operators 802 781 719 683 678 692
Primary Industry 161 157 151 147 154 147
Processing, Manufacturing & Utilities 555 512 456 426 408 443

Total

5,193 5,191 5,016 4,949 4,974 5,039
Table 28 (continued) (Thousands)
  1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Management 596 585 590 595 553 566
Business, Finance & Administrative 979 968 962 993 1,050 1,079
Natural & Applied Sciences 272 270 296 327 388 423
Health 252 245 261 255 272 279
Social Science, Education, Government
    Service & Religion 341 340 342 356 389 401
Art, Culture, Recreation & Sport 140 148 143 155 169 172
Sales & Service 1,243 1,272 1,305 1,348 1,354 1,408
Trades, Transport & Equipment Operators 712 721 756 777 790 806
Primary Industry 143 142 143 139 153 142
Processing, Manufacturing & Utilities 453 490 515 545 571 597

Total
5,131 5,181 5,313 5,490 5,688 5,872

Notes:      Occupation groupings based on 1991 Standard Occupational Classification.
Source:    Statistics Canada.





Table 29 Ontario, Distribution of Employment by Occupation, 1989-2000
(Per Cent)
  1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Management 9.9 10.3 11.1 10.9 11.4 10.9
Business, Finance & Administrative 20.5 20.6 20.2 20.2 19.3 19.1
Natural & Applied Sciences 4.8 4.9 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0
Health 4.5 4.5 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.0
Social Science, Education, Government
    Service & Religion 5.7 6.1 6.4 7.0 6.9 7.4
Art, Culture, Recreation & Sport 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0
Sales & Service 22.8 23.2 23.3 23.9 24.6 24.1
Trades, Transport & Equipment Operators 15.4 15.1 14.3 13.8 13.6 13.7
Primary Industry 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.9
Processing, Manufacturing & Utilities 10.7 9.9 9.1 8.6 8.2 8.8

Total

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Table 29 (continued) (Per Cent)
  1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Management 11.6 11.3 11.1 10.8 9.7 9.6
Business, Finance & Administrative 19.1 18.7 18.1 18.1 18.5 18.4
Natural & Applied Sciences 5.3 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.8 7.2
Health 4.9 4.7 4.9 4.6 4.8 4.7
Social Science, Education, Government
    Service & Religion 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.5 6.8 6.8
Art, Culture, Recreation & Sport 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.9
Sales & Service 24.2 24.5 24.6 24.6 23.8 24.0
Trades, Transport & Equipment Operators 13.9 13.9 14.2 14.2 13.9 13.7
Primary Industry 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.4
Processing, Manufacturing & Utilities 8.8 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.2

Total
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Notes:      Occupation groupings based on 1991 Standard Occupational Classification.
Source:    Statistics Canada.





Table 30 Ontario, Employment by Industry, 1991-2000
(Thousands)
  1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Goods Producing Industries 1,420 1,352 1,302 1,312 1,348
   Primary Industries 165 162 159 155 152
        Agriculture 112 110 114 112 107
   Manufacturing 905 857 822 838 878
   Construction 285 269 264 271 269
   Utilities 64 64 57 49 49
Services Producing Industries 3,596 3,597 3,672 3,727 3,782
   Trade 759 765 778 771 767
   Transportation & Warehousing 223 212 221 236 242
   Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing 382 367 367 355 365
   Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 269 267 270 282 302
   Management, Administrative and Other Support 143 144 152 158 174
   Educational Services 333 346 356 364 358
   Health Care & Social Assistance 482 484 496 503 510
   Information, Culture & Recreation 204 202 209 223 233
   Accommodation & Food Services 272 277 281 288 293
   Public Administration 316 318 318 314 305
   Other Services 214 216 225 234 235
Total Employment 5,016 4,949 4,974 5,039 5,131


Table 30 (continued) Ontario, Employment by Industry, 1991-2000
(Thousands)
  1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Goods Producing Industries 1,366 1,412 1,469 1,550 1,602
   Primary Industries 151 143 144 152 133
        Agriculture 105 103 106 114 98
   Manufacturing 904 939 989 1,049 1,099
   Construction 261 282 288 300 324
   Utilities 50 48 49 50 46
Services Producing Industries 3,815 3,902 4,021 4,138 4,271
   Trade 783 802 813 850 874
   Transportation & Warehousing 244 248 261 260 278
   Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 372 377 376 384 385
   Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 313 350 372 397 424
   Management, Administrative & Other Support 181 194 210 224 246
   Educational Services 340 340 347 368 369
   Health Care & Social Assistance 503 495 518 518 544
   Information, Culture & Recreation 232 248 243 257 282
   Accommodation & Food Services 315 316 335 340 343
   Public Administration 290 279 284 286 274
   Other Services 242 251 262 254 252
Total Employment 5,181 5,313 5,490 5,688 5,872

Notes:      Industrial groupings based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
Source:    Statistics Canada.




Table 31 Ontario, Growth in Employment by Industry, 1991-2000
(Per Cent Change)
  1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Goods Producing Industries -8.8 -4.8 -3.7 0.8 2.7
   Primary Industries -3.4 -2.3 -1.5 -2.5 -1.8
        Agriculture -0.3 -1.7 3.3 -2.2 -4.3
   Manufacturing -9.0 -5.3 -4.2 2.0 4.8
   Construction -12.8 -5.6 -1.9 2.5 -0.7
   Utilities 0.9 0.3 -11.5 -13.9 0.6
Services Producing Industries -1.1 0.0 2.1 1.5 1.5
   Trade -2.4 0.9 1.6 -0.9 -0.6
   Transportation & Warehousing -4.8 -5.0 4.5 6.6 2.8
   Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing -2.6 -3.8 0.0 -3.4 2.8
   Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 2.5 -0.6 1.1 4.4 7.0
   Management, Administrative & Other Support 6.1 0.8 5.7 3.8 9.9
   Educational Services 2.6 3.7 3.0 2.2 -1.7
   Health Care & Social Assistance 1.1 0.4 2.5 1.5 1.4
   Information, Culture & Recreation -4.7 -1.3 3.4 6.7 4.6
   Accommodation & Food Services -5.4 2.1 1.3 2.5 1.8
   Public Administration 0.9 0.7 0.2 -1.4 -2.8
   Other Services -2.2 0.6 4.1 4.2 0.4
Total Employment -3.4 -1.3 0.5 1.3 1.8



Table 31 (continued) Ontario, Growth in Employment by Industry, 1991-2000
(Per Cent Change)
  1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Goods Producing Industries 1.3 3.4 4.1 5.5 3.3
   Primary Industries -0.9 -5.5 1.1 5.6 -12.7
        Agriculture -1.5 -2.5 3.1 7.9 -14.4
   Manufacturing 2.9 3.9 5.4 6.0 4.8
   Construction -2.6 8.0 1.8 4.4 7.8
   Utilities 1.6 -3.2 1.0 1.2 -6.3
Services Producing Industries 0.9 2.3 3.0 2.9 3.2
   Trade 2.2 2.4 1.4 4.5 2.8
   Transportation & Warehousing 0.6 1.8 5.3 -0.5 7.0
   Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 2.2 1.3 -0.5 2.3 0.3
   Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 3.8 11.7 6.3 6.5 6.8
   Management, Administrative & Other Support 4.0 7.4 8.0 7.0 9.5
   Educational Services -5.0 0.0 2.1 6.2 0.2
   Health Care & Social Assistance -1.4 -1.5 4.6 0.0 5.0
   Information, Culture & Recreation -0.5 7.0 -2.1 5.7 9.9
   Accommodation & Food Services 7.4 0.6 5.8 1.6 0.7
   Public Administration -4.9 -3.7 1.6 0.6 -4.0
   Other Services 3.1 3.5 4.6 -3.3 -0.8
Total Employment 1.0 2.6 3.3 3.6 3.2

Notes:      Industrial groupings based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
Source:    Statistics Canada.





Table 32 Ontario, Employment by Economic Regions, 1989-2000
(Thousands)
  1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Ontario 5,193 5,191 5,016 4,949 4,974 5,039
Region:*
East 686 693 689 682 683 701
Ottawa (510) 508 518 513 508 503 521
Kingston-Pembroke (515) 178 175 176 174 180 180
Greater Toronto Area (530)1 2,255 2,244 2,130 2,104 2,118 2,115
Central 1,185 1,200 1,163 1,149 1,139 1,173
Muskoka-Kawarthas (520) 138 138 136 140 136 137
Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie (540) 453 450 449 450 458 470
Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula (550) 595 612 578 559 546 567
Southwest 703 685 682 676 689 705
London (560) 278 280 281 275 285 288
Windsor-Sarnia (570) 282 268 263 266 267 274
Stratford-Bruce Peninsula (580) 143 138 138 135 137 143
North 364 368 352 337 344 345
Northeast (590) 254 256 244 233 238 237
Northwest (595) 111 112 108 104 106 108

Table 32 (continued) (Thousands)
  1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Ontario 5,131 5,181 5,313 5,490 5,688 5,872
Region:*
East 674 674 685 726 750 757
Ottawa (510) 501 508 516 543 555 573
Kingston-Pembroke (515) 172 166 170 183 195 184
Greater Toronto Area (530)1 2,215 2,242 2,348 2,426 2,511 2,616
Central 1,194 1,209 1,230 1,276 1,322 1,371
Muskoka-Kawarthas (520) 148 148 150 152 161 165
Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie (540) 469 478 496 515 543 552
Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula (550) 577 583 584 609 618 654
Southwest 686 699 704 714 744 763
London (560) 285 278 283 286 299 307
Windsor-Sarnia (570) 271 279 277 286 296 304
Stratford-Bruce Peninsula (580) 130 142 145 142 149 152
North 362 357 345 348 361 366
Northeast (590) 248 247 241 244 249 253
Northwest (595) 114 110 105 105 112 113

* Standard deviations vary significantly across regions, decreasing as the size of the region increases.
Notes:

  1. Economic region of Toronto (530) closely matches the GTA, except that it excludes the city of Burlington.

Source: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.





Table 33 Ontario, Employment by Industry for Economic Regions, 2000
(Thousands)
  All
Industries
Agriculture Resources1 Manufacturing
Ontario 5,872 98 35 1,099
Region:
East 757 10 3 90
Ottawa (510) 573 7 1 65
Kingston-Pembroke (515) 184 3 2 25
Greater Toronto Area (530) 2,616 9 3 484
Central 1,371 33 4 311
Muskoka-Kawarthas (520) 165 3 2 29
Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie (540) 552 13 1 146
Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula (550) 654 17 1 136
Southwest 763 42 3 175
London (560) 307 14 1 61
Windsor-Sarnia (570) 304 10 2 85
Stratford-Bruce Peninsula (580) 152 18 - 30
North 366 3 22 39
Northeast (590) 253 3 15 24
Northwest (595) 113 1 7 14

Table 33 (continued) (Thousands)
  Construction Distributive 2 Finance, Prof.
& Mgmt.3
Info., Culture &
Recreation4
Ontario 324 534 1,054 282
Region:
East 41 55 124 37
Ottawa (510) 28 41 101 31
Kingston-Pembroke (515) 13 13 23 7
Greater Toronto Area (530) 137 259 614 149
Central 86 118 188 54
Muskoka-Kawarthas (520) 14 14 18 7
Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie (540) 36 48 76 19
Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula (550) 35 56 95 28
Southwest 41 67 92 28
London (560) 16 26 44 8
Windsor-Sarnia (570) 15 25 34 16
Stratford-Bruce Peninsula (580) 10 17 14 3
North 20 34 36 14
Northeast (590) 14 23 26 11
Northwest (595) 5 11 11 4


Table 33 (continued) Ontario, Employment by Industry for Economic Regions, 2000
(Thousands)
  Retail Trade Personal Services5 Education
Ontario 665 594 369
Region:
East 83 83 52
Ottawa (510) 58 63 36
Kingston-Pembroke (515) 25 20 17
Greater Toronto Area (530) 287 236 149
Central 158 153 89
Muskoka-Kawarthas (520) 23 19 10
Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie (540) 57 55 37
Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula (550) 79 80 42
Southwest 86 77 48
London (560) 33 31 25
Windsor-Sarnia (570) 36 31 17
Stratford-Bruce Peninsula (580) 18 16 7
North 51 45 30
Northeast (590) 36 32 20
Northwest (595) 15 13 10

Table 33 (continued) (Thousands)
  Health & Soc. Assistance Public Administration
Ontario 544 274
Region:
East 80 98
Ottawa (510) 58 84
Kingston-Pembroke (515) 22 14
Greater Toronto Area (530) 201 88
Central 128 47
Muskoka-Kawarthas (520) 20 6
Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie (540) 46 19
Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula (550) 63 23
Southwest 84 21
London (560) 40 9
Windsor-Sarnia (570) 27 8
Stratford-Bruce Peninsula (580) 16 4
North 51 20
Northeast (590) 35 14
Northwest (595) 16 7

- Employment numbers under 1,500 are suppressed because they are statistically unreliable.
See standard deviation and GTA note for Table 32.
Industrial groupings based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
Notes:

  1. Includes Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Oil and Gas.
  2. Includes Transportation & Warehousing, Utilities and Wholesale Trade.
  3. Includes Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing; Management of Companies, Administrative & Support Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.
  4. Information, Culture & Recreation includes industries such as Publishing, Motion Picture & Sound Recording, Broadcasting & Telecommunications, Information Services & Data Processing Services, Performing Arts, Spectator Sports and Related Industries, Heritage Institutions and Amusement, Gambling & Recreation.
  5. Includes Accommodation & Food Services and Other Services (such as Repair and Maintenance, Personal and Laundry, Religious, Grant-making, Civic, Professional and Similar Organizations).

Source: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.





Ontario Economic Regions1
East
Ottawa (510) The united counties of Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry, Prescott and Russell, Leeds and Grenville, the county of Lanark and the Ottawa-Carleton Regional Municipality
Kingston-Pembroke (515) The counties of Lennox and Addington, Hastings, Renfrew, Prince Edward and Frontenac
Central
Muskoka-Kawarthas (520) The counties of Northumberland, Peterborough, Victoria, Haliburton, and the Muskoka District Municipality
Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie (540) The counties of Dufferin, Wellington, and Simcoe and the Waterloo Regional Municipality
Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula (550) The county of Brant, the Regional Municipalities of Hamilton-Wentworth, Niagara, Haldimand-Norfolk and the city of Burlington in the Halton Regional Municipality
Greater Toronto Area2
Toronto (530) Toronto Metropolitan Municipality, the Regional Municipalities of Durham, York, Peel and Halton (excluding the city of Burlington)
Southwest
London (560) The counties of Oxford, Elgin and Middlesex
Windsor-Sarnia (570) The counties of Lambton, Essex and Kent
Stratford-Bruce Peninsula (580) The counties of Perth, Huron, Bruce and Grey
North
Northeast (590) The districts of Nipissing, Parry Sound, Manitoulin, Sudbury, Timiskaming, Cochrane, Algoma, and the Sudbury Regional Municipality
Northwest (595)

The districts of Thunder Bay, Rainy River and Kenora

Notes:

  1. As defined by Statistics Canada, Guide to the Labour Force Survey, February 2001.
  2. Economic Region 530 closely matches the GTA, except that it excludes the city of Burlington.
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