2003 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review
ANNEX IV
Economic Data Tables : Ontario Economy
| Table 1 | Ontario, Gross Domestic Product, 1989-2002 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($ Billions) | ||||||||||||||
| 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | |
| Real GDP (chained $1997) |
322.5 |
316.9 |
304.5 |
307.2 |
310.2 |
328.5 |
340.1 |
343.8 |
359.4 |
376.7 |
405.0 |
427.9 |
435.4 |
451.1 |
| Consumption | 175.7 | 176.3 | 172.9 | 175.3 | 177.7 | 183.1 | 186.6 | 190.9 | 200.1 | 207.1 | 216.6 | 227.0 | 232.5 | 240.8 |
| Government | 65.6 | 69.1 | 72.3 | 72.6 | 72.1 | 72.9 | 73.3 | 70.6 | 70.5 | 72.0 | 75.1 | 77.8 | 81.6 | 85.1 |
| Residential Construction | 24.4 | 19.4 | 16.3 | 17.1 | 15.6 | 15.9 | 13.7 | 15.0 | 17.2 | 16.8 | 18.8 | 20.1 | 22.0 | 24.1 |
| Non-residential Construction | 14.4 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| Machinery and Equipment | 20.4 | 19.5 | 18.0 | 18.5 | 17.7 | 20.2 | 22.3 | 23.7 | 29.3 | 31.3 | 34.2 | 36.4 | 36.4 | 34.2 |
| Exports | 164.3 | 164.3 | 159.4 | 165.5 | 179.4 | 198.1 | 213.8 | 225.6 | 242.6 | 260.4 | 289.8 | 311.9 | 301.9 | 308.5 |
| Imports |
145.8 |
143.2 |
142.2 |
149.8 |
158.7 |
169.4 |
180.5 |
189.4 |
213.3 |
223.3 |
241.9 |
260.9 |
246.6 |
253.8 |
| Nominal Gross Domestic Product |
278.8 |
282.8 |
283.1 |
286.5 |
293.4 |
311.1 |
329.3 |
338.2 |
359.4 |
377.9 |
409.0 |
440.7 |
452.9 |
478.1 |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
| Table 2 | Ontario, Growth in Gross Domestic Product, 1989-2002 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Per Cent Change) | ||||||||||||||
| 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | |
| Real GDP (chained $1997) |
3.4 |
-1.7 |
-3.9 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
5.9 |
3.5 |
1.1 |
4.5 |
4.8 |
7.5 |
5.6 |
1.8 |
3.6 |
| Consumption | 3.7 | 0.3 | -1.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 3.6 |
| Government | 4.2 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 0.4 | -0.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 | -3.7 | -0.1 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 4.2 |
| Residential Construction | 9.1 | -20.2 | -15.9 | 4.5 | -8.7 | 2.0 | -14.0 | 9.6 | 14.5 | -1.8 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 9.6 |
| Non-residential Construction | 6.6 | -9.0 | -4.9 | -12.9 | -18.7 | -12.2 | -2.7 | 21.5 | 9.2 | 1.6 | 11.4 | -8.1 | -6.4 | -4.2 |
| Machinery and Equipment | 3.1 | -4.8 | -7.2 | 2.4 | -4.4 | 14.6 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 23.3 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | -0.1 | -6.1 |
| Exports | 3.9 | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.9 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 7.6 | -3.2 | 2.2 |
| Imports |
5.0 |
-1.8 |
-0.7 |
5.3 |
5.9 |
6.8 |
6.6 |
4.9 |
12.6 |
4.7 |
8.4 |
7.8 |
-5.5 |
2.9 |
| Nominal Gross Domestic Product |
8.7 |
1.5 |
0.1 |
1.2 |
2.4 |
6.0 |
5.9 |
2.7 |
6.3 |
5.2 |
8.2 |
7.7 |
2.8 |
5.6 |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
| Table 3 | Ontario, Selected Economic Indicators, 1989-2002 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | |
| Retail Sales* ($ Billions) | 72.6 | 72.6 | 67.3 | 68.9 | 71.7 | 76.9 | 79.6 | 80.2 | 86.4 | 92.4 | 99.2 | 106.4 | 109.2 | 115.3 |
| Housing Starts - Units (000s) | 93.3 | 62.6 | 52.8 | 55.8 | 45.1 | 46.6 | 35.8 | 43.1 | 54.1 | 53.8 | 67.2 | 71.5 | 73.3 | 83.6 |
| Personal Income ($ Billions) | 229.0 | 241.7 | 247.7 | 253.8 | 256.1 | 260.7 | 271.4 | 276.3 | 289.5 | 304.7 | 321.7 | 347.4 | 359.8 | 372.4 |
| Pre-tax Corporate Profits ($ Billions) | 27.4 | 19.8 | 14.6 | 14.5 | 17.9 | 27.9 | 33.1 | 34.2 | 37.5 | 39.5 | 49.7 | 54.8 | 48.5 | 56.6 |
| Consumer Price Index (1992 = 100) | 90.2 | 94.6 | 99.0 | 100.0 | 101.8 | 101.8 | 104.3 | 105.9 | 107.9 | 108.9 | 111.0 | 114.2 | 117.7 | 120.1 |
| Labour Force (000s) | 5,470 | 5,533 | 5,544 | 5,542 | 5,581 | 5,574 | 5,620 | 5,695 | 5,801 | 5,914 | 6,071 | 6,228 | 6,364 | 6,532 |
| Employment (000s) | 5,193 | 5,191 | 5,016 | 4,949 | 4,974 | 5,039 | 5,131 | 5,181 | 5,313 | 5,490 | 5,688 | 5,872 | 5,963 | 6,068 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) |
5.1 |
6.2 |
9.5 |
10.7 |
10.9 |
9.6 |
8.7 |
9.0 |
8.4 |
7.2 |
6.3 |
5.7 |
6.3 |
7.1 |
* Retail sales include Federal Sales Taxes up to 1990 but exclude GST after 1990.
Sources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.
| Table 4 | Ontario, Economic Indicators, Annual Change, 1989-2002 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Per Cent Change) | ||||||||||||||
| 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | |
| Retail Sales* | 4.0 | 0.0 | -7.2 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 5.6 |
| Housing Starts | -6.6 | -32.9 | -15.7 | 5.6 | -19.1 | 3.3 | -23.2 | 20.2 | 25.6 | -0.4 | 24.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 14.1 |
| Personal Income | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| Pre-tax Corporate Profits | -6.7 | -27.8 | -26.0 | -0.8 | 23.1 | 55.8 | 18.7 | 3.3 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 25.9 | 10.2 | -11.5 | 16.7 |
| Consumer Price Index | 5.7 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| Labour Force | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| Employment |
2.2 |
0.0 |
-3.4 |
-1.3 |
0.5 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
2.6 |
3.3 |
3.6 |
3.2 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
* Retail sales include Federal Sales Taxes up to 1990 but exclude GST after 1990.
Sources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.
| Table 5 | Ontario, Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry at Basic Prices, 1999-2002 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($1997 Millions) | ||||
| 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | |
| Goods Producing Industries | 118,106 | 127,442 | 123,510 | 127,807 |
| Primary | 7,824 | 7,836 | 7,540 | 7,635 |
| Utilities | 9,807 | 9,840 | 9,757 | 10,083 |
| Construction | 17,910 | 18,364 | 19,970 | 20,546 |
| Manufacturing1 |
82,565 |
91,403 |
86,243 |
89,543 |
| Services Producing Industries | 255,569 | 269,319 | 278,087 | 288,614 |
| Wholesale Trade | 24,323 | 26,039 | 26,398 | 28,379 |
| Retail Trade | 18,833 | 20,045 | 20,451 | 21,381 |
| Transportation and Warehousing | 15,541 | 16,142 | 15,869 | 16,119 |
| Information and Cultural (incl. Telecommunications) | 14,659 | 16,150 | 17,304 | 18,278 |
| Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental and Leasing | 78,442 | 83,393 | 86,971 | 90,506 |
| Professional, Scientific and Technical Services | 18,053 | 19,736 | 20,742 | 21,386 |
| Administrative and Other Support Services | 8,800 | 9,274 | 9,649 | 10,109 |
| Educational Services | 17,148 | 17,202 | 17,390 | 17,644 |
| Health Care and Social Assistance | 20,628 | 20,960 | 21,621 | 22,302 |
| Arts, Entertainment and Recreation | 3,375 | 3,667 | 3,739 | 3,892 |
| Accommodation and Food Services | 8,608 | 8,759 | 8,938 | 8,981 |
| Other Services (excl. Public Administration) | 8,467 | 8,841 | 9,150 | 9,389 |
| Public Administration |
18,693 |
19,111 |
19,865 |
20,248 |
| Total Production | 373,675 | 396,761 | 401,597 | 416,421 |
Note:
1 See Table 7 for detailed manufacturing industries.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
| Table 6 | Ontario, Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry at Basic Prices, 1999-2002 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Per Cent Change) | ||||
| 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | |
| Goods Producing Industries | 8.2 | 7.9 | -3.1 | 3.5 |
| Primary Industries | 9.0 | 0.1 | -3.8 | 1.3 |
| Utilities | 0.9 | 0.3 | -0.8 | 3.3 |
| Construction | 14.5 | 2.5 | 8.7 | 2.9 |
| Manufacturing1 |
7.8 |
10.7 |
-5.6 |
3.8 |
| Services Producing Industries | 7.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 3.8 |
| Wholesale Trade | 11.6 | 7.1 | 1.4 | 7.5 |
| Retail Trade | 4.8 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 4.5 |
| Transportation and Warehousing | 8.5 | 3.9 | -1.7 | 1.6 |
| Information and Cultural (incl. Telecommunications) | 20.8 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 5.6 |
| Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental and Leasing | 5.8 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| Professional, Scientific and Technical Services | 15.2 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 3.1 |
| Administrative and Other Support Services | 11.9 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 4.8 |
| Educational Services | -0.5 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Health Care and Social Assistance | 3.7 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| Arts, Entertainment and Recreation | 7.5 | 8.7 | 2.0 | 4.1 |
| Accommodation and Food Services | 12.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Other Services (excl. Public Administration) | 9.8 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 |
| Public Administration |
1.4 |
2.2 |
3.9 |
1.9 |
| Total Production | 7.6 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 3.7 |
Note:
1 See Table 8 for detailed manufacturing industries.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
| Table 7 | Ontario, Real Gross Domestic Product in Selected Manufacturing Industries, 1999-2002 |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($1997 Millions) | ||||
| 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | |
| Manufacturing | 82,565 | 91,403 | 86,243 | 89,543 |
| Food | 6,958 | 6,832 | 7,282 | 7,365 |
| Beverage and Tobacco | 2,418 | 2,543 | 2,649 | 2,605 |
| Clothing | 881 | 1,081 | 1,022 | 1,110 |
| Leather | 149 | 167 | 143 | 158 |
| Textile Products | 832 | 964 | 868 | 873 |
| Wood Products | 1,605 | 1,980 | 2,003 | 2,192 |
| Paper | 3,256 | 3,690 | 3,477 | 3,536 |
| Printing | 2,236 | 2,637 | 2,653 | 2,605 |
| Petroleum and Coal Products | 610 | 569 | 565 | 557 |
| Chemical Products | 6,678 | 7,229 | 7,159 | 7,829 |
| Plastic Products | 3,622 | 4,391 | 4,639 | 5,294 |
| Rubber Products | 1,416 | 1,458 | 1,393 | 1,398 |
| Non-metallic Mineral Products | 2,127 | 2,308 | 2,276 | 2,320 |
| Primary and Fabricated Metal | 11,187 | 12,806 | 12,448 | 13,189 |
| Machinery | 5,574 | 6,598 | 6,023 | 6,269 |
| Computer and Electronic Products | 6,708 | 9,080 | 6,722 | 6,081 |
| Electrical Equipment | 2,205 | 2,585 | 2,207 | 2,303 |
| Transportation Equipment | 20,481 | 20,168 | 18,692 | 19,890 |
| Of Which: Auto Industry | 17,894 | 17,988 | 16,317 | 17,612 |
| Furniture and Related Products | 2,362 | 2,793 | 2,634 | 2,570 |
| Miscellaneous Manufacturing | 1,262 | 1,526 | 1,388 | 1,399 |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
| Table 8 | Ontario, Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product in Selected Manufacturing Industries, 1999-2002 |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Per Cent Change) | ||||
| 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | |
| Manufacturing | 7.8 | 10.7 | -5.6 | 3.8 |
| Food | 1.7 | -1.8 | 6.6 | 1.1 |
| Beverage and Tobacco | -6.6 | 5.2 | 4.2 | -1.7 |
| Clothing | -5.8 | 22.7 | -5.5 | 8.6 |
| Leather | -7.2 | 12.5 | -14.4 | 10.4 |
| Textile Products | -4.2 | 15.9 | -10.0 | 0.6 |
| Wood Products | -2.0 | 23.4 | 1.2 | 9.5 |
| Paper | -2.7 | 13.3 | -5.8 | 1.7 |
| Printing | 0.0 | 17.9 | 0.6 | -1.8 |
| Petroleum and Coal Products | -2.2 | -6.7 | -0.7 | -1.3 |
| Chemical Products | 3.2 | 8.2 | -1.0 | 9.4 |
| Plastic Products | 12.0 | 21.2 | 5.6 | 14.1 |
| Rubber Products | 7.6 | 3.0 | -4.5 | 0.3 |
| Non-metallic Mineral Products | -1.4 | 8.6 | -1.4 | 1.9 |
| Primary and Fabricated Metal | 5.3 | 14.5 | -2.8 | 5.9 |
| Machinery | -1.5 | 18.4 | -8.7 | 4.1 |
| Computer and Electronic Products | 36.6 | 35.4 | -26.0 | -9.5 |
| Electrical Equipment | -4.9 | 17.3 | -14.6 | 4.4 |
| Transportation Equipment | 18.6 | -1.5 | -7.3 | 6.4 |
| Of Which: Auto Industry | 20.8 | 0.5 | -9.3 | 7.9 |
| Furniture and Related Products | 4.6 | 18.3 | -5.7 | -2.4 |
| Miscellaneous Manufacturing | 7.5 | 20.9 | -9.0 | 0.7 |
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
| Table 9 | Ontario, Housing Market Indicators, 1996-2002 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | |
| Residential Construction Current $ Millions* | 14,549 | 17,154 | 17,227 | 19,738 | 21,729 | 24,528 | 28,030 |
| |
9.6 |
17.9 |
0.4 |
14.6 |
10.1 |
12.9 |
14.3 |
| New Construction* | 6,489 | 8,258 | 8,351 | 10,175 | 11,312 | 12,337 | 14,772 |
| |
9.4 |
27.3 |
1.1 |
21.8 |
11.2 |
9.1 |
19.7 |
| Alterations and Improvements* | 5,383 | 5,711 | 5,758 | 6,080 | 6,790 | 7,928 | 8,309 |
| |
7.3 |
6.1 |
0.8 |
5.6 |
11.7 |
16.8 |
4.8 |
| Transfer Costs* | 2,677 | 3,186 | 3,118 | 3,483 | 3,627 | 4,263 | 4,949 |
| |
14.8 |
19.0 |
-2.1 |
11.7 |
4.1 |
17.5 |
16.1 |
| Housing Starts (000s)* | 43.1 | 54.1 | 53.8 | 67.2 | 71.5 | 73.3 | 83.6 |
| |
20.2 |
25.6 |
-0.4 |
24.9 |
6.4 |
2.5 |
14.1 |
| Home Resales (000s)* | 137.9 | 140.6 | 138.5 | 148.7 | 147.2 | 162.3 | 177.4 |
| |
31.4 |
1.9 |
-1.5 |
7.4 |
-1.0 |
10.3 |
9.3 |
| Average Resale Home Price ($)* | 155,662 | 164,382 | 167,115 | 174,049 | 183,841 | 193,357 | 210,699 |
| |
0.7 |
5.6 |
1.7 |
4.1 |
5.6 |
5.2 |
9.0 |
* Per cent change is shown on second line.
Sources: Statistics Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Canadian Real Estate Association and Ontario Ministry of Finance.
| Table 10 | Selected Financial Indicators, 1989-2002 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Per Cent) | ||||||||||||||
| 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | |
| Interest Rates | ||||||||||||||
| Bank Rate | 12.3 | 13.1 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.7 |
| Prime Rate | 13.3 | 14.1 | 9.9 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 4.2 |
| 10-Year Government Bonds | 9.8 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Three-month T-Bills | 12.1 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 2.6 |
| Mortgage Rates | ||||||||||||||
| 5-Year Rate | 12.1 | 13.4 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 7.0 |
| 1-Year Rate | 12.9 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 5.2 |
| Household Debt Burden* | ||||||||||||||
| Consumer | 20.6 | 21.3 | 21.1 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 22.3 | 23.1 | 24.4 | 26.0 | 27.5 | 28.3 | 29.7 | 30.5 | 31.2 |
| Mortgage | 49.2 | 53.3 | 55.8 | 59.2 | 62.2 | 65.3 | 65.4 | 67.1 | 68.5 | 69.0 | 68.7 | 67.1 | 67.0 | 68.7 |
| Total | 69.8 | 74.6 | 76.9 | 80.1 | 83.2 | 87.6 | 88.5 | 91.5 | 94.4 | 96.4 | 97.0 | 96.9 | 97.5 | 99.9 |
* Canadian household debt as a share of personal disposable income.
Note: All data are annual averages.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada.