2008 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review

Table of Contents

• Foreword

Annex I: Fiscal Outlook

Section A: ontario’s 2008–09 Fiscal Outlook

• 2008–09 Fiscal Performance
• 2008–09 Revenue Changes Since 2008 Budget
  • Details of 2008–09 In-Year Revenue Changes
• 2008–09 Expense Changes Since 2008 Budget
  • Details of 2008–09 In-Year Expense Changes
• Maintaining a Prudent Accumulated Deficit-to-GDP Ratio
• Risks to the Fiscal Outlook

Section B: Expenditure Management

• Expenditure Management

Section C: Details oF Ontario’s Finances

• Details of Ontario’s Finances

Annex II: Economic Outlook

• Overview
  • Financial Market Turmoil
  • Ongoing External Economic Challenges
  • Ontario’s Economic Progress over the Past Five Years
  • The Ontario Economy in 2008
  • Heightened Global Economic Uncertainty
  • Private-Sector Economic Forecasts
  • Comparison to the 2008 Ontario Budget

Annex III: Role for the Federal Government

• Canada’s System of Transfers Is Outdated
  • Ontario’s Fiscal Gap
  • Equalization
  • Employment Insurance
  • Health Care
  • Regional Economic Development
  • Infrastructure
  • Time-Limited Transfers
• Need for a Federal Partner

Annex IV: Borrowing and Debt Management

• Long-Term Public Borrowing
  • Deficit
  • Other Changes in the Financing Table
  • Debt
  • Debt-to-GDP Ratios
  • Total Debt Composition
  • Debt Management
  • Debt Maturities
  • Cost of Debt

Annex V: Transparency In Taxation, 2008

• Transparency in Taxation
  • Structure of the Report
  • Scope
  • Method
  • Personal Income Tax
  • Personal Income Tax — Description of Tax Provisions
    • Ontario Non-refundable Tax Credits
    • Employee Ownership and Ontario Labour Sponsored Investment Fund Tax Credits
    • Ontario Refundable Tax Credits
    • Exemptions, Deductions, Deferrals and Other Measures Shared with the Federal Government
  • Corporate Tax
  • Corporate Tax — Description of Tax Provisions
    • Corporate Income Tax
  • Sales and Commodity Tax
  • Sales and Commodity Tax — Description of Tax Provisions
    • Land Transfer Tax
    • Retail Sales Tax
  • Education Property Tax
  • Employer Health Tax
  • Estate Administration Tax
  • Gross Revenue Charge

Annex VI: How to Participate in the 2009 Pre-Budget Consultations

• How to Participate in the 2009 Pre-Budget Consultations
  • Submissions

Economic Data Tables

• Economic Data Tables

List of Tables

Annex I: Fiscal Outlook

Section A: ontario’s 2008–09 Fiscal Outlook

• Table 1: 2008–09 In-Year Fiscal Performance
• Table 2: Summary of Revenue Changes Since 2008 Budget
• Table 3: Summary of Expense Changes Since 2008 Budget

Section C: Details of Ontario’s Finances

• Table 4: 2008–09 Fiscal Outlook
• Table 5: Revenue
• Table 6: Total Expense
• Table 7: Other Expense
• Table 8: 2008–09 Infrastructure Expenditures
• Table 9: Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics

Annex II: Economic Outlook

• Table 1: Ontario Economic Outlook
• Table 2: Key External Variables
• Table 3: External Variables
• Table 4: Impacts of Changes in Key Assumptions on Ontario Real GDP Growth
• Table 5: Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Real GDP Growth
• Table 6: Changes in Key Economic Forecast Assumptions, 2008 Fall Economic Statement Compared to 2008 Budget

Annex IV: Borrowing and Debt Management

• Table 1: 2008–09 Borrowing Program: Province and OEFC

Annex V: Transparency In Taxation, 2008

• Table 1: Personal Income Tax
• Table 2: Amounts on Which Indexed Non-refundable Tax Credits Are Based for 2008
• Table 3: Corporate Tax
• Table 4: Sales and Commodity Tax
• Table 5: Education Property Tax
• Table 6: Employer Health Tax (EHT)
• Table 7: Estate Administration Tax
• Table 8: Gross Revenue Charge (GRC)

Economic Data Tables

Ontario Economy

• Ontario, Gross Domestic Product, 1994–2007
• Ontario, Growth in Gross Domestic Product, 1994–2007
• Ontario, Selected Economic Indicators, 1994–2007
• Ontario, Selected Economic Indicators, Annual Change, 1994–2007
• Ontario, Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry at Basic Prices, 2004–2007
• Ontario, Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry at Basic Prices, 2004–2007
• Ontario, Real Gross Domestic Product at Basic Prices in Selected Manufacturing Industries, 2004–2007
• Ontario, Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product at Basic Prices in Selected Manufacturing Industries, 2004–2007
• Ontario, Housing Market Indicators, 2004–2007
• Selected Financial Indicators, 1994–2007

G7 Comparison

• Ontario and the G7, Real Gross Domestic Product Growth, 1994–2007
• Ontario and the G7, Employment Growth, 1994–2007
• Ontario and the G7, Unemployment Rates, 1994–2007
• Ontario and the G7, CPI Inflation Rates, 1994–2007
• G7, Exchange Rates, 1994–2007

Ontario, International Merchandise Trade

• Ontario, International Merchandise Exports by Major Commodity, 2007
• Ontario, International Merchandise Imports by Major Commodity, 2007
• Ontario, International Merchandise Exports by Top 25 Trading Partners, 2007
• Ontario, International Merchandise Imports by Top 25 Trading Partners, 2007

Demographic Characteristics

• Ontario, Selected Demographic Characteristics, 1996–2008
• Ontario, Components of Population Growth, 1998–99 to 2007–08

Ontario Labour Markets

• Ontario, Labour Force, 1994–2007
• Ontario, Employment, 1994–2007
• Ontario, Unemployment, 1994–2007
• Ontario, Employment Insurance (EI) and Social Assistance, 1994–2007
• Ontario, Labour Compensation, 1994–2007
• Ontario, Employment by Occupation, 1996–2007
• Ontario, Distribution of Employment by Occupation, 1996–2007
• Ontario, Employment by Industry, 1998–2007
• Ontario, Growth in Employment by Industry, 1998–2007
• Ontario, Employment Level by Economic Regions, 1997–2007
• Ontario, Employment Level by Industry for Economic Regions, 2007
• Ontario Economic Regions

List of Charts

Annex I: Fiscal Outlook

Section A: ontario’s 2008–09 Fiscal Outlook

• Chart 1: Ontario’s Fiscal Performance
• Chart 2: Accumulated Deficit-to-GDP

Section C: Details of Ontario’s Finances

• Chart 3: Composition of Revenue, 2008–09
• Chart 4: Composition of Total Expense, 2008–09
• Chart 5: Composition of Program Expense, 2008–09

Annex II: Economic Outlook

• Chart 1: Ontario’s International Merchandise Exports Are Diversifying
• Chart 2: Jobs Created Since October 2003
• Chart 3: Employment Growth Relatively Strong
• Chart 4: Crude Oil Prices
• Chart 5: Canadian Dollar
• Chart 6: Private-Sector Forecasts

Annex III: Role for the Federal Government

• Chart 1: Ontarians Pay into Equalization
• Chart 2: Ontarians Do Not Receive Fair Treatment
• Chart 3: Time-Limited Federal Transfers

Annex IV: Borrowing and Debt Management

• Chart 1: Borrowing — All Markets
• Chart 2: Borrowing — Domestic Market
• Chart 3: Debt
• Chart 4: Net Debt-to-GDP
• Chart 5: Accumulated Deficit-to-GDP
• Chart 6: Total Debt Composition
• Chart 7: Net Interest Rate Resetting Exposure
• Chart 8: Foreign Exchange Exposure
• Chart 9: Debt Maturities
• Chart 10: Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) of Debt