: 2009 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Foreword

Chapter I: Confronting The Challenge

• Confronting the Challenge
• Introduction
• Infrastructure Investments

Chapter II: Ontario's Economic Performance and Outlook

• Ontario’s Economic Performance and Outlook
• The Global Recession and the Ontario Economy
• Private-Sector Forecasts
• Details of the Ontario Economic Outlook
• Comparison to the 2009 Ontario Budget

Chapter III: Fiscal Outlook

Section A: Ontario’s Fiscal Outlook

• 2009–10 Fiscal Performance
• 2009–10 Revenue Changes Since 2009 Budget
• Details of 2009–10 In-Year Revenue Changes
• 2009–10 Expense Changes Since 2009 Budget
• Details of 2009–10 In-Year Expense Changes

Section B: Ontario’s Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook

• Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
• Medium-Term Revenue Changes Since the 2009 Budget
• Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook
• Ontario’s Expenditure Management Plan

Section C: Details of Ontario’s Finances

Chapter IV: Borrowing and Debt Management

• Long-Term Public Borrowing
• Deficit and Borrowing
• Other Changes in Financing
• Debt
• Debt-to-GDP Ratios
• Total Debt Composition
• Cost of Debt
• Risk Exposure

Chapter V: Creating a More Competitive and Modern Tax System

• Tax Cuts for a Stronger Ontario
• Harmonized Sales Tax
• Tax Cuts for People
• Competitive Business Taxes
• Supporting Innovation and Key Sectors
• Streamlining the Ontario Digital Media Tax Credit for Large Game Developers
• Enhancing the Production Services Tax Credit

Chapter VI: How to Participate in The 2010 Pre-Budget Consultations

• How to Participate in the 2010 Pre-Budget Consultations

Chapter I: Confronting The Challenge

• Table 1: Selected Infrastructure Projects Currently Under Construction
• Table 2: Over One Million Ontarians Use Skills Training Annually
• Table 3: Postsecondary Education Stimulus Investments
• Table 4: Postsecondary Education Stimulus Investments
• Table 5: Acceleration of the Ontario Child Benefit

Chapter II: Ontario's Economic Performance and Outlook

• Table 1: Ontario Economic Outlook
• Table 2: External Variables — Private-Sector Forecast
• Table 3: Impacts of Changes in Key Assumptions on Ontario Real GDP Growth
• Table 4: Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Real GDP Growth
• Table 5: The Ontario Economy, 2007 to 2012
• Table 6: Changes in Key Economic Forecast Assumptions, 2009 Fall Economic Statement Compared to 2009 Ontario Budget

Chapter III: Fiscal Outlook

• Table 1: 2009–10 In-Year Fiscal Performance
• Table 2: 2009–10 Summary of Revenue Changes Since Budget
• Table 3: 2009–10 Summary of In-Year Expense Changes Since Budget Infrastructure Investments
• Table 4: 2009–10 Inter-Ministry Transfers Related to Federal-Provincial Infrastructure Investments
• Table 5: Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
• Table 6: Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Changes Since Budget
• Table 7: Medium-Term Fiscal Projections
• Table 8: Medium-Term Fiscal Plan and Outlook
• Table 9: Revenue
• Table 10: Total Expense
• Table 11: Other Expense
• Table 12: Infrastructure Expenditures
• Table 13: Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics

Chapter IV: Borrowing and Debt Management

• Table 1: 2009–10 Borrowing Program: Province and OEFC
• Table 2: Medium-Term Borrowing Outlook: Province and OEFC

Chapter V: Creating a More Competitive and Modern Tax System

• Table 1: Program Parameters for the Proposed Ontario Sales Tax Credit and Ontario Property Tax Credit
• Table 2: Ontario Sales Tax Transition Benefit

Chapter I: Confronting The Challenge

• Chart 1: New Infrastructure Investments by Sector
• Chart 2: Ontario Motor Vehicle Manufacturing Sales
• Chart 3: Supporting Families Through the OCB and Social Assistance
• Chart 4: Cutting Ontario’s METR on New Business Investment in Half

Chapter II: Ontario's Economic Performance and Outlook

• Chart 1: Ontario–U.S. Employment Declines
• Chart 2: Ontario–U.S. Comparative GDP Declines
• Chart 3: Provincial Real GDP Declines, 2009
• Chart 4: Provincial Employment Change, 2009
• Chart 5: Ontario Employment
• Chart 6: Ontario Real GDP Growth

Chapter III: Fiscal Outlook

• Chart 1: Evolution of 2009–10 Revenue Outlook
• Chart 2: Jurisdictional Comparison: 2009–10 Deficit-to-GDP
• Chart 3: Program Expense per Capita
• Chart 4: Composition of Revenue, 2009–10
• Chart 5: Composition of Total Expense, 2009–10
• Chart 6: Composition of Program Expense, 2009–10

Chapter IV: Borrowing and Debt Management

• Chart 1: Borrowing — All Markets
• Chart 2: Borrowing — Domestic Market
• Chart 3: Debt
• Chart 4: Net Debt-to-GDP, Provincial Comparison
• Chart 5: Net Debt-to-GDP, G7 Countries and Ontario
• Chart 6: Total Debt Composition
• Chart 7: Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) on Total Debt
• Chart 8: Net Interest Rate Resetting Exposure
• Chart 9: Foreign Exchange Exposure

Chapter V: Creating A More Competitive and Modern Tax System

• Chart 1: An RST vs. a Value-Added Tax — Illustrative Example
• Chart 2: Impact of Proposed Sales Tax Changes and Tax Relief —
  Single Parent on Ontario Works, 2 Children (ages 5 & 7)
• Chart 3: Impact of Proposed Sales Tax Changes and Tax Relief —
  Single Senior, Pension Income $20,000
• Chart 4: Impact of Proposed Sales Tax Changes and Tax Relief —
  Single Individual, $30,000
• Chart 5: Impact of Proposed Sales Tax Changes and Tax Relief — Couple, $70,000, 2 Children (ages 5 & 10)
• Chart 6: Ontario’s Competitiveness with the U.S.
• Chart 7: Three Ways Businesses Would Save Under the HST
• Chart 8: Cutting Ontario’s METR on New Business Investment in Half