2010 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review

CHAPTER 3: Fiscal Outlook

Highlights

  • 2010–11 deficit projection — $18.7 billion, down from the $19.7 billion forecast in the 2010 Budget.
  • 2010–11 deficit projection represents an almost 25 per cent improvement from the $24.7 billion deficit forecast a year ago for 2009–10.
  • Province on track for deficit targets in 2011–12 and 2012–13.
  • The government has laid out a realistic, responsible plan to cut the deficit in half within five years of its highest point and to eliminate it in eight years.
  • Ontario needs a strong federal partner that will provide long-term, predictable support.

Section A: Overview

This chapter outlines Ontario's fiscal outlook for 2010–11 and the medium-term forecast for 2011–12 and 2012–13. In addition, it reviews federal support for the delivery of services important to Ontarians.

While the economy is gradually recovering, Ontario's families and businesses are still feeling the effects of the global financial and economic crisis. Key economic indicators have improved from lows posted during the recession, but most remain below pre-recession levels. Risks to the outlook include uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic recovery and the ongoing challenges in the global economy, such as sovereign debt concerns and trade imbalances (for further details, see Chapter 2: Ontario's Economic Outlook).

The government has already announced that it has exceeded its fiscal target for 2009–10, recording a deficit of $19.3 billion, down from the $24.7 billion deficit projected in the Fall 2009 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.

The Province is now projecting an $18.7 billion deficit in 2010–11 — a $1.0 billion improvement from the 2010 Budget and an almost 25 per cent improvement from the $24.7 billion deficit forecast a year ago for 2009–10.

The government is on track to meet the medium-term fiscal targets outlined in the 2010 Budget. These include steadily declining deficits of $17.3 billion in 2011–12 and $15.9 billion in 2012–13, and incorporate the initiatives announced as part of this document, including the proposed Ontario Clean Energy Benefit. The government has laid out a realistic, responsible plan to cut the deficit in half within five years of its highest point and to eliminate it in eight years.

Chart 1: Ontario's Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook

Section B: 2010–11 Fiscal Performance

The 2010 Budget and the First Quarter Ontario Finances projected a deficit of $19.7 billion for 2010–11. The government is now projecting a deficit of $18.7 billion for 2010–11 — a $1.0 billion improvement.

The improvement to the fiscal forecast for 2010–11 is mainly due to an increase in revenue resulting from stronger economic growth and the government's prudent fiscal management. Total program expense is unchanged from the 2010 Budget plan.

Total revenue has increased by 0.7 per cent while total expense has decreased by 0.2 per cent. Total expense is lower due to the fact that the Province's interest on debt expense projection is $0.2 billion below the 2010 Budget forecast.

The fiscal plan continues to maintain a $0.7 billion reserve in recognition of the global economic uncertainty that remains.

Table 1
2010–11 In-Year Fiscal Performance
($ Millions)
  Budget Plan Current Outlook In-Year Change
Revenue 106,867 107,656 789
Expense      
Programs 115,896 115,896
Interest on Debt 9,961 9,715 (246)
Total Expense 125,857 125,611 (246)
Reserve 700 700
Surplus/(Deficit) (19,690) (18,656) 1,035
  • Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

2010–11 REVENUE CHANGES SINCE THE 2010 BUDGET

The 2010–11 revenue outlook, at $107.7 billion, is $0.8 billion above the 2010 Budget forecast, largely reflecting stronger economic growth in 2010.

Table 2
Summary of Revenue Changes since the Budget
($ Millions)
    2010/11
Taxation    
Personal Income Tax (1,130)  
Sales Tax 326  
Corporations Tax 696  
Education Property Tax 382  
Tobacco Tax 166  
Ontario Health Premium 151  
Land Transfer Tax 126  
Other Taxes 165  
Total Taxation   882
Government of Canada   76
Other Non-Tax Revenue   (169)
Total Revenue Changes since Budget   789
  • Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

DETAILS OF 2010–11 IN-YEAR REVENUE CHANGES

Key revenue changes since the 2010 Budget forecast include:

  • Personal Income Tax (PIT) revenues are projected to be $1,130 million, or 4.4 per cent, lower due to weaker 2009 revenues indicated by tax returns processed since the 2010 Budget. Stronger 2010 employment and wage growth only partially offsets the weaker 2009 amounts.
  • Sales Tax revenues are forecast to be $326 million, or 1.7 per cent, higher largely due to stronger projected growth in consumer spending during 2010. This stronger growth is partially offset by a revenue-neutral change in the reporting of the energy component of the proposed Ontario Energy and Property Tax Credit (OEPTC), whereby in 2010–11 the credit would be netted against Sales Tax rather than Education Property Tax (EPT) as assumed at the time of the Budget. This would result in an offsetting increase in EPT. (For further information on this tax credit, see Chapter 5: Tax and Pension Modernization.)
  • Corporations Tax (CT) revenues are projected to be $696 million, or 9.4 per cent, higher mainly due to stronger 2009 revenues indicated by tax returns processed since the Budget. Weaker 2010 profit growth only partially offsets the stronger 2009 amounts.
  • Education Property Tax (EPT) is up $382 million, largely due to the tax credit reporting change noted above. This is partially offset by a revised estimate of the remaining property tax credit to be netted against EPT.
  • Tobacco Tax revenues are projected to be $166 million higher due to improved enforcement activities.
  • Ontario Health Premium revenues are expected to be $151 million, or 5.3 per cent, higher largely due to stronger 2009 revenues and faster 2010 employment and wage growth.
  • Land Transfer Tax revenues are projected to be $126 million, or 12.3 per cent, higher reflecting the strength in the Ontario housing market earlier in the year.
  • Other Taxes are forecast to be a combined $165 million higher, largely due to stronger 2010 economic growth. This includes an increase in the revenue outlook for Fuel Tax ($81 million) and Employer Health Tax ($46 million).
  • The $76 million increase in Government of Canada transfers is due to tobacco settlement claims that were previously announced in the First Quarter Ontario Finances.
  • Other Non-Tax Revenue is down $169 million due to updated information based on the current forecast.

2010–11 EXPENSE CHANGES SINCE THE 2010 BUDGET

Consistent with the government's approach to controlling the rate of growth in spending while protecting core public services, total program expense is unchanged from the 2010 Budget plan. Total expense in 2010–11 is currently projected to be $125,611 million — 0.2 per cent lower than the 2010 Budget forecast, due to a lower interest on debt expense projection than forecast in the 2010 Budget, reflecting lower interest rates than those projected in the Budget.

Table 3
Summary of Expense Changes since the Budget
($ Millions)
  2010/11
Key Program Expense Changes  
Ontario Clean Energy Benefit 300
Home Energy Savings Program 85.1
Extra Forest Firefighting 57.1
Other Program Expenses 8.3
Contingency Funds (450.5)
Total Program Expense Changes
Interest on Debt Expense Forecast Change (246.2)
Total Expense Changes since the Budget (246.2)


DETAILS OF 2010–11 IN-YEAR EXPENSE CHANGES

Key 2010–11 expense changes from the 2010 Budget forecast include:

  • An increase of $300.0 million to provide direct relief to eligible consumers through the proposed Ontario Clean Energy Benefit, providing a credit equal to 10 per cent of the after-tax cost of electricity on their bills, effective January 1, 2011. Eligible consumers include residential, farm, small business and other small users who consume less than 250,000 kilowatt hours per year.
  • An $85.1 million increase to address increased demand in the Home Energy Savings Program and the Ontario Solar Thermal Heating Initiative.
  • An increase of $57.1 million for extra forest firefighting, to provide additional resources during the 2010 fire season, which began earlier than usual this year.
  • An increase in all other program expenses of $8.3 million, including items such as disaster relief support for tornado damage in Essex County and monsoon flooding in Pakistan.

Interest on Debt expense, at $9,715 million, is $246.2 million lower than forecast in the 2010 Budget. This reduction primarily reflects lower interest rates than those projected at the time of the Budget.

Section C: Ontario's Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook

MEDIUM-TERM REVENUE OUTLOOK

The medium-term revenue forecast reflects the Ministry of Finance's economic outlook and the estimated impact of government policy measures.

Table 4
Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
($ Billions)
  Actual Projected Outlook
Revenue 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13
Taxation Revenue 64.9 72.5 75.2 79.2
Government of Canada 18.6 23.8 21.1 21.1
Income from Government Business Enterprises 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.6
Other Non-Tax Revenue 8.0 7.2 6.9 6.9
Total Revenue 95.8 107.7 107.6 111.8
  • Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

The medium-term Taxation Revenue outlook reflects current revenue information and projections for the Ontario economy.

The outlook for Government of Canada transfers reflects current federal-provincial funding arrangements.

The outlook for Income from Government Business Enterprises is unchanged from the 2010 Budget.

The forecast for Other Non-Tax Revenue is based on information provided by government ministries and provincial agencies.

MEDIUM-TERM REVENUE CHANGES SINCE THE 2010 BUDGET

Table 5
Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Changes since the Budget
($ Billions)
Source of Change 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13
Economic Growth Outlook 1.5 1 0.6
Lower 2009–10 Tax Base (0.7) (0.7) (0.7)
Government of Canada 0.1 (0.4)
Other Non-Tax Revenue (0.2) (0.1) (0.1)
Total Revenue Changes 0.8 (0.2) (0.1)
  • Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

The revenue outlook is up in 2010–11 due to stronger economic growth in 2010. The outlook for 2011–12 and 2012–13 remains close to the 2010 Budget outlook.

A stronger 2010 economic growth outlook increases taxation revenues in 2010–11. This increase diminishes over the 2011–12 and 2012–13 period due to weaker economic growth projected for those years.

A lower 2009–10 tax base is largely due to weaker Personal Income Tax revenues reported in the 2009–10 Public Accounts. This lowers the revenue base upon which projected growth is applied, resulting in lower revenues over the forecast period.

Changes to Government of Canada transfers in 2011–12 reflect updated estimates based on current agreements and funding arrangements with the federal government.

Other Non-Tax Revenue changes largely reflect updated information based on the current forecast.

MEDIUM-TERM EXPENSE OUTLOOK

A key element of the 2010 Budget plan to eliminate the deficit was a commitment to manage down expense while following through on policies that support jobs and growth to ensure future opportunity and prosperity. The government is committed to maintaining a prudent and responsible approach to managing growth in expense, while preserving public services.

The medium-term expense outlook is consistent with the 2010 Budget plan, and reflects the impact of the following adjustments:

  • providing direct relief to eligible consumers through the proposed Ontario Clean Energy Benefit;
  • a lower interest on debt forecast, as a result of lower interest rates than those projected in the Budget; and
  • the measures the government is taking to manage spending and reduce costs.

The government remains committed to ongoing expenditure management and has a long track record of effectively realizing savings and efficiencies (for further details, see Chapter 1, Section B: Managing Responsibly). As outlined in the 2010 Budget, the government has continued its comprehensive review of all government programs and services. To date, this review has identified over $260 million in potential savings through both programming and administrative expenditure reductions. The government will continue to identify program efficiencies to ensure the rate of expense growth remains well below the rate of growth in revenue over the medium term.

MEDIUM-TERM FISCAL OUTLOOK

The Province is on track to meet the fiscal targets established in the 2010 Budget. Ontario's fiscal outlook includes steadily declining deficits of $18.7 billion in 2010–11, $17.3 billion in 2011–12 and $15.9 billion in 2012–13.

In recognition of the ongoing challenges in the global economy, such as sovereign debt concerns and trade imbalances, as well as the uncertain outlook for the U.S. economic recovery, the medium-term fiscal outlook continues to include a reserve of $1.0 billion in each of 2011–12 and 2012–13.

Table 6
Medium-Term Fiscal Plan and Outlook
($ Billions)
  Actual Projected Outlook
  2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13
Total Revenue 95.8 107.7 107.6 111.8
Expense        
Programs 106.3 115.9 113.1 114.5
Interest on Debt 8.7 9.7 10.8 12.2
Total Expense 115.1 125.6 123.9 126.7
Reserve 0.7 1.0 1.0
Surplus/(Deficit) (19.3) (18.7) (17.3) (15.9)
  • Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

RISKS TO THE FISCAL OUTLOOK

Although economic recovery is underway in Ontario, significant risks remain that could cause variances to both the Province's revenue and expense outlooks.

Detailed information on revenue and expense risks and sensitivities can be found in Chapter II of the 2010 Budget.

Section D: Federal Partner

Through the recent global recession, Ontario and the federal government worked closely together to support the economy. Both levels of government coordinated investment in infrastructure, provided financial support to the auto industry and worked together on sales tax harmonization. The federal government also provided additional support for skills training.

The Province's Open Ontario plan will help Ontarians increase productivity and promote economic growth. The plan includes new investments in education and continuing investments in labour-market training and health care. During a time of continued economic uncertainty, the Province seeks the federal government's ongoing support in strengthening Ontario and Canada.

Ontario has been asking for fairness in all transfers and this should include programs and supports in the areas of immigration and labour-market training.

A NEED FOR IMMIGRANT SETTLEMENT AND SKILLS TRAINING SUPPORT

The Province looks to the federal government to provide adequate settlement and training support for new Canadians in Ontario. To date, the federal government has underspent its commitments through the Canada-Ontario Immigration Agreement by more than $200 million. The federal government must fulfill this commitment and flow this money to immigrant service agencies immediately. This is particularly important considering immigrants will account for a significant and rising share of labour-force growth in the coming years. Ontario is committed to supporting the success of its immigrants. To improve outcomes for immigrants who choose Ontario as their home, the federal government must immediately begin negotiations on a new agreement with Ontario — one that would give the Province greater policy control and full funding support for immigrant settlement and training.

In its 2009 budget, the federal government increased funding for labour-market programs through time-limited enhancements that provided much-needed assistance to workers affected by the recession. These enhancements, which will expire on March 31, 2011, provided additional support of approximately $314 million per year in 2009–10 and 2010–11. Ending this funding means that tens of thousands of Ontarians will lose the opportunity to develop labour-market skills that are crucial in the current economic climate. Ontario is asking the federal government to extend the labour-market training enhancements to provide Ontarians with greater opportunities to transition their skills to the new economy.

A NEED FOR RELIABLE LONG-TERM FUNDING SUPPORT

The federal government has used time-limited funding to support the delivery of provincial services. When federal support for provincial programs such as health care declines over time or ends, it leaves Ontario with significant financial pressures to continue delivering these much-needed services. Time-limited federal funding reflects a lack of commitment to the needs of Ontario families. This approach hurts the province's prospects for a stronger Ontario and a stronger Canada.

Provincial governments are working together to manage the cost of health care services, including work on the pan-Canadian procurement of drugs and medical equipment, and sharing of clinical best practices. To continue to deliver the quality services on which Ontarians rely, Ontario needs the federal government to renew its commitment to fund the reduction of health care wait times.

Provinces need a strong and sustained federal commitment beyond 2013–14 to help them plan to meet future demand for health care, postsecondary education and social services. The growth of major federal transfers in support of health, postsecondary education and social programs is currently set in federal legislation until the end of 2013–14. Ontario is encouraged that the federal fiscal plan provides for growth in major federal transfers at current legislated rates for an additional two years to 2015–16. The future of universal health care depends on the federal government providing adequate financial support to provinces and territories.

AN ONGOING PARTNERSHIP

The federal government and interested provinces and territories are working together to establish a Canadian Securities Regulator. In order to meet the needs of Canadian capital markets, the national regulator should be centred in Toronto, Canada's financial capital.

Ontario wants a federal partner that supports the initiatives the Province is implementing in response to new and emerging economic, demographic and social realities that will help with its long-term economic transformation. Ontario looks to the federal government for continued support to be a true partner in the areas of health care and postsecondary education, and to work with Ontario to support its immigrants as well as its economic plan going forward.

Section E: Details of Ontario's Finances

This section provides information on the Province's current fiscal outlook, historical financial performance and key fiscal indicators.

Table 7
Medium-Term Fiscal Plan and Outlook
($ Billions)
  Actual Projected Outlook
2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13
Revenue 95.8 107.7 107.6 111.8
Expense        
Programs 106.3 115.9 113.1 114.5
Interest on Debt 1 8.7 9.7 10.8 12.2
Total Expense 115.1 125.6 123.9 126.7
Reserve 0.7 1.0 1.0
Surplus/(Deficit) (19.3) (18.7) (17.3) (15.9)
Net Debt 2 193.6 219.5 244.5 267.4
Accumulated Deficit 2 131.0 149.6 166.9 182.8
  • 1Interest on Debt expense is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $0.1 billion in 2009–10, $0.2 billion in 2010–11, $0.2 billion in 2011–12 and $0.2 billion in 2012–13.
  • 2Net Debt is calculated as the difference between liabilities and financial assets. The annual change in Net Debt is equal to the surplus/deficit of the Province plus the change in non-financial assets; and the change in the fair value of the Ontario Nuclear Funds. Accumulated Deficit is calculated as the difference between liabilities and total assets. The annual change in the Accumulated Deficit is equal to the surplus/deficit plus the change in the fair value of the Ontario Nuclear Funds.
  • Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.


Table 8
Revenue
($ Millions)
  2007–08 2008–09 Actual
2009–10
Current Outlook
2010–11
Taxation Revenue        
Personal Income Tax 25,472 25,738 23,393 24,812
Sales Tax 1 16,745 17,021 17,059 19,463
Corporations Tax 12,990 6,748 5,615 8,086
Education Property Tax 5,754 5,696 5,626 5,698
Employer Health Tax 4,605 4,617 4,545 4,747
Ontario Health Premium 2,713 2,776 2,763 3,022
Gasoline Tax 2,360 2,323 2,336 2,378
Land Transfer Tax 1,363 1,013 1,015 1,149
Tobacco Tax 1,127 1,044 1,083 1,132
Fuel Tax 733 698 658 733
Beer and Wine Tax (replacing Fees)2 414
Electricity Payments-In-Lieu of Taxes 546 830 516 481
Other Taxes 481 352 322 368
  74,889 68,856 64,931 72,483
Government of Canada        
Canada Health Transfer 8,487 8,942 9,791 10,217
Canada Social Transfer 3,778 4,079 4,204 4,327
Equalization 347 972
Infrastructure Programs 207 151 990 2,146
Labour Market Programs 664 797 1,253 1,207
Social Housing 525 520 498 487
Wait Times Reduction Fund 468 235 97 97
Other Federal Payments 2,468 1,867 1,440 4,306
  16,597 16,591 18,620 23,759
Government Business Enterprises        
Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation 1,857 1,921 1,924 1,859
Liquor Control Board of Ontario 1,374 1,410 1,440 1,465
Ontario Power Generation Inc./Hydro One Inc. 1,214 713 854 844
Other Government Enterprises (8) (2) (23) (4)
  4,437 4,042 4,195 4,164
Other Non-Tax Revenue        
Reimbursements 1,464 1,379 1,429 1,095
Vehicle and Driver Registration Fees 1,051 1,034 1,057 1,059
Electricity Debt Retirement Charge 982 970 907 916
Power Supply Contract Recoveries 929 953 1,409 1,385
Sales and Rentals 553 733 647 673
Other Fees and Licences 677 683 717 736
Beer and Wine Fees (replaced by Tax)2 466 459 451 115
Net Reduction of Power Purchase Contract Liability 398 373 348 339
Royalties 193 205 228 195
Miscellaneous Other Non-Tax Revenue 943 655 854 737
  7,656 7,444 8,047 7,250
Total Revenue 103,579 96,933 95,793 107,656
  • 1Sales Tax in 2010–11 includes Retail Sales Tax and Harmonized Sales Tax. Effective July 1, 2010, the Retail Sales Tax was replaced with a value-added tax and combined with the federal Goods and Services Tax to create a federally administered Harmonized Sales Tax.
  • 2Beer and Wine Tax replaces reduced Beer and Wine Fees (-$343 million) and the reduced sales tax on alcohol (-$71 million). There is no net new revenue for the Province.


Table 9
Total Expense
($ Millions)
Ministry Expense 2007–08 2008–09 Actual
2009–10
Current Outlook
2010–11
Aboriginal Affairs 1 33 55 67 71.0  
Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs 1 731 877 1,265 1,288.1  
Attorney General 1,650 1,669 1,584 1,709.8  
Board of Internal Economy 257 188 187 195.0  
Children and Youth Services 3,733 4,069 4,430 4,666.5  
Citizenship and Immigration 90 89 101 112.4  
Community and Social Services 7,549 8,001 8,629 9,263.2  
Community Safety and Correctional Services 1,982 2,121 2,201 2,690.6  
Consumer Services 54 58 57 60.0  
Economic Development and Trade 1 328 245 223 349.8  
Education1 18,733 19,626 20,337 21,364.6  
Energy and Infrastructure 12 389 251 292 723.6  
Environment 1 347 363 360 383.0  
Executive Offices 36 35 34 34.9  
Finance 1 380 602 491 651.7  
Francophone Affairs, Office of 5 5 5 5.1  
Government Services 1 916 939 1,106 1,102.4  
Health and Long-Term Care 37,744 40,352 42,730 45,352.4  
Health Promotion and Sport 1 364 382 381 408.7  
Labour 170 177 179 192.2  
Municipal Affairs and Housing 1 744 756 694 686.4  
Natural Resources 629 621 639 666.2  
Northern Development, Mines and Forestry 506 645 653 857.3  
Research and Innovation 1 301 295 333 411.5  
Revenue 1 641 635 1,129 1,008.1  
Tourism and Culture 1 584 566 668 720.0  
Training, Colleges and Universities 1 5,787 6,081 6,479 7,154.9  
Transportation 1 1,892 2,038 2,097 2,294.6  
Interest on Debt 3 8,914 8,566 8,719 9,715.0  
Other Expense 1 7,490 3,035 8,985 12,646.5  
Year-End Savings 4 (1,174.5)  
Total Expense 102,979 103,342 115,055 125,611.1  
  • 1Details on other ministry expense can be found in Table 10, Other Expense.
  • 2Future updates will reflect the impact of previously announced ministry restructuring details
  • 3Interest on debt is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $148 million in 2009–10 and $212 million in 2010–11.
  • 4As in past years, the Year-End Savings provision reflects anticipated underspending that has historically arisen at year-end due to factors such as program efficiencies, and changes in project startups and implementation plans.
  • Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.


Table 10
Other Expense
($ Millions)
Ministry Expense 2007–08 2008–09 Actual
2009–10
Current Outlook
2010–11
Aboriginal Affairs        
One-Time Expense for the First Nations
Gaming Agreement
201
Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs        
One-Time Extraordinary Assistance 274
Time-Limited Investments in Infrastructure 618 1,898.00
Time-Limited Assistance 76 13 27 9.0
Economic Development and Trade        
One-Time Investments 152
Education        
Teachers' Pension Plan 1 342 50 255 525.0
Energy and Infrastructure        
Capital Contingency Fund 200.0
One-Time Investments in Municipal Infrastructure 450
Ontario Clean Energy Benefit 300.0
Environment        
One-Time Investments 68 37
Finance        
One-Time Automotive Sector Support 2 75 3,022
Investing in Ontario Act Investments 1,149
Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund 907 905 781 645.5
Operating Contingency Fund 1,389.9
Pension Benefit Guarantee Fund 500
Power Supply Contract Costs 929 953 1,409 1,385.0
Government Services        
Pension and Other Employee Future Benefits 531 971 949 1,102.0
Health Promotion and Sport        
Time-Limited Investments in Infrastructure 48 345.1
Municipal Affairs and Housing        
Time-Limited Investments in Municipal Social and Affordable Housing Stock 100 585 659.3
One-Time Assistance 1.0
Research and Innovation        
One-Time Investments 87 5
Revenue        
Harmonized Sales Tax Transitional Support 3,200.0
Tourism and Culture        
One-Time Investments 57 29.0
Training, Colleges and Universities        
Time-Limited Investments 699 559 957.7
Transportation        
One-Time Transit and Infrastructure Investments 1,536 190
Total Other Expense 7,490 3,035 8,985 12,646.50
  • 1Numbers reflect PSAB pension expense. Ontario's matching contributions to the plan grow from $808 million in 2007–08 to $1,245 million in 2009–10 and $1,307 million in 2010–11.
  • 2Reflects the fiscal impact of Ontario's $4.6 billion in support to the automotive industry.
  • Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding


Table 11
2010–11 Infrastructure Expenditures
($ Millions)
Sector Total Infrastructure
Expenditures 2009–10 Actual
2010–11 Current Outlook
Investment in Capital Assets Transfers and Other
Infrastructure Expenditures 1
Total Infrastructure Expenditures
Transportation        
Transit 1,724 1,381 355 1,735
Highway Expansion/High-Occupancy Vehicle Lanes 1,020 1,018 1,018
Highway and Bridge Rehabilitation 771 1,017 1,017
Other Transportation 2 720 1,022 117 1,139
Health        
Hospitals 2,541 2,065 10 2,075
Other Health 318 311 143 454
Education–School Boards 1,632 1,657 1,657
Postsecondary        
Colleges 285 146 146
Universities 83 98 98
Water/Environment 500 41 306 348
Municipal and Local Infrastructure 448 34 493 527
Justice 220 641 29 670
Other 702 697 384 1,082
Short-Term Stimulus Investments 1,616 697 3,679 4,376
Subtotal 12,582 10,728 5,614 16,342
Less: Other Partner Funding 3 620 464 464
Total Excluding Partner Funding 11,961 10,264 5,614 15,878
Less: Flow-Throughs 4 1,133 487 2,179 2,666
Total Provincial Expenditure 5 10,829 9,776 3,435 13,212
  • 1Mainly consists of transfers for capital purposes to municipalities and universities, and expenditures for capital repairs. These expenditures are included in the Province's total expense in Table 9.
  • 2Other Transportation includes planning activities, property acquisition, highway service centres and other infrastructure programs (e.g., municipal/local roads, remote airports).
  • 3Third-party contributions to capital investment in the consolidated sectors (schools, colleges and hospitals).
  • 4Mostly federal government transfers for capital investments.
  • 5Total Provincial Infrastructure Expenditure includes acquisitions of tangible capital assets by the Province and consolidated sectors (schools, colleges and hospitals). The share of 2009–10 Total Provincial Expenditure attributable to Investment in Capital Assets is $8.3 billion.
  • Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.


Table 12
Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics 1
($ Millions)
  2001–02 2002–032 2003–04 2004–05 2005–06 3 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 Actual
2009–10 2
Current
Outlook
2010–11
Financial Transactions                    
Revenue 72,307 74,675 74,269 83,861 90,305 96,640 103,579 96,933 95,793 107,656
Expense                    
Programs 61,595 64,864 70,148 76,048 80,988 85,540 94,065 94,776 106,336 115,896
Interest on Debt 4 10,337 9,694 9,604 9,368 9,019 8,831 8,914 8,566 8,719 9,715
Total Expense 71,932 74,558 79,752 85,416 90,007 94,371 102,979 103,342 115,055 125,611
Reserve 700
Surplus/(Deficit) 375 117 (5,483) (1,555) 298 2,269 600 (6,409) (19,262) (18,656)
Net Debt 5 6 132,121 132,647 138,816 140,921 152,702 153,742 156,616 169,585 193,589 219,462
Accumulated Deficit 7 132,121 118,705 124,188 125,743 109,155 106,776 105,617 113,238 130,957 149,613
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Market Prices 453,701 477,763 493,081 516,106 537,383 560,576 583,946 584,460 578,183 610,561
Personal Income 361,187 369,420 381,127 400,994 419,457 442,736 466,051 478,696 477,641 493,881
Population — July (000s) 11,897 12,091 12,242 12,391 12,528 12,665 12,793 12,932 13,065 13,211
Net Debt per Capita (dollars) 11,106 10,971 11,339 11,373 12,188 12,139 12,242 13,113 14,817 16,612
Personal Income per Capita (dollars) 30,360 30,553 31,132 32,363 33,480 34,956 36,430 37,016 36,559 37,385
Interest on Debt as a per cent of Revenue 14.3 13.0 12.9 11.2 10.0 9.1 8.6 8.8 9.1 9.0
Net Debt as a per cent of GDP 29.1 27.8 28.2 27.3 28.4 27.4 26.8 29.0 33.5 35.9
Accumulated Deficit as a per cent of GDP 29.1 24.8 25.2 24.4 20.3 19.0 18.1 19.4 22.6 24.5
  • 1Revenue and expense have been restated to reflect a fiscally neutral accounting change for the revised presentation of education property taxes, as described in the 2010 Ontario Budget.
  • 2Starting in 2002–03, investments in major tangible capital assets owned by the Province (land, buildings, and transportation infrastructure) have been capitalized and amortized to expense over their useful lives. Starting in 2009–10, investments in minor tangible capital assets owned by the Province were capitalized and amortized to expense. All capital assets owned by consolidated organizations are being accounted for in a similar manner.
  • 3Starting in 2005–06, the Province's financial reporting was expanded to include hospitals, school boards and colleges. Total expense prior to 2005–06 has not been restated to reflect expanded reporting.
  • 4Interest on Debt is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $148 million in 2009–10 and $212 million in 2010–11.
  • 5Net Debt is calculated as the difference between liabilities and financial assets. The annual change in Net Debt is equal to the surplus/deficit of the Province plus the change in non-financial assets and, effective April 1, 2007, the change in the fair value of the Ontario Nuclear Funds.
  • 6Starting in 2009–10, Net Debt includes the net debt of hospitals, school boards and colleges consistent with Public Sector Accounting Board standards. For comparative purposes, Net Debt has been restated from 2005–06 to 2008–09 to conform with this revised presentation. Net Debt has also been restated in 2003–04, 2004–05 and 2005–06 to reflect the value of hydro corridor lands transferred to the Province from Hydro One Inc.
  • 7Accumulated Deficit is calculated as the difference between liabilities and total assets. The annual change in the Accumulated Deficit is equal to the surplus/deficit plus, effective April 1, 2007, the change in the fair value of the Ontario Nuclear Funds. For further information, visit http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/budget/paccts/2010.
  • Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.
Chart 2: Composition of Revenue 2010-11
Chart 3: Composition of Total Expense 2010-11
Chart 4: Composition of Program Expense1 2010-11