: 2011 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review

CONTENTS

• Foreword
  • Producing Results
  • Jobs and the Economy
  • Slower Global Economic Growth
  • Lower Rate of Spending Growth
  • Meeting the Challenge Through Reform
  • Healthy Homes Renovation Tax Credit
• Conclusion

Chapter I: Creating Ontario Jobs in an Uncertain Global Economy

• Highlights
• Overview
  • Ontario’s Performance Affected by Global Developments
• Changes in the Economy
• Building Ontario’s Clean Energy Future
• The Tax Plan for Jobs and Growth
• Auto Sector
• Infrastructure
• Financial Services
• Mining and Opportunities in Ontario’s Ring of Fire
• Producing Results
  • Preparing Ontarians for Jobs
  • Health Care

Chapter II: Ontario’s Economic Outlook

• Highlights
• Overview
• Recent Economic Developments
• The Challenging Global Economic Environment
  • European Sovereign Debt
  • Global Economic Outlook Weakening
  • U.S. Economy
  • Oil Prices
  • The Canadian Dollar
  • Financial Markets
• Outlook for Ontario Economic Growth
  • Details of the Ontario Economic Outlook
  • Private-Sector Forecasts
  • Comparison to the 2011 Ontario Budget

Chapter III: Fiscal Outlook

• Highlights

Section A: Overview

Section B: 2011–12 Fiscal Performance

• 2011–12 Revenue Changes Since the 2011 Budget
  • Details of 2011–12 In-Year Revenue Changes
• 2011–12 Expense Changes Since the 2011 Budget
  • Details of 2011–12 In-Year Expense Changes

Section C: Ontario’s Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook

• Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
  • Medium-Term Revenue Changes Since the 2011 Budget
• Medium-Term Expense Outlook
• Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook

Section D: Federal–Provincial Fiscal Arrangements

Section E: Details of Ontario’s Finances

Chapter IV: Borrowing and Debt Management

• Highlights
• Long-Term Public Borrowing
• Debt
• Total Debt Composition
• Debt-to-GDP Ratios
• Cost of Debt
• Risk Exposure

Chapter V: Tax and Pensions

• Highlights
• Creating Jobs and Helping Ontarians
• Healthy Homes Renovation Tax Credit
• Tax Relief for Businesses
  • Strengthening Accountability and Transparency of Tax Expenditures
  • Federal Support for Research and Development
• Securing Our Retirement Future

Chapter VI: How to Participate in the 2012 Pre-Budget Consultations

• How to Participate in the 2012 Pre-Budget Consultations
  • Written Submissions
  • Online Submissions

Chapter I: Creating Ontario Jobs in an Uncertain Global Economy

• Table 1: Global Financial Centres Index Ranking: Toronto Enters the Top 10

Chapter II: Ontario's Economic Outlook

• Table 1: Ontario Economic Outlook
• Table 2: Tracking Ontario’s Economic Recovery
• Table 3: Outlook for External Factors
• Table 4: Impacts of Sustained Changes in Key External Factors on Ontario’s Real GDP Growth
• Table 5: The Ontario Economy, 2009 to 2014
• Table 6: Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Real GDP Growth
• Table 7: Changes in Key Economic Forecast Assumptions: 2011 Fall Economic Statement Compared to 2011 Budget

Chapter III: Fiscal Outlook

• Table 1: 2011–12 In-Year Fiscal Performance
• Table 2: Summary of Revenue Changes Since the Budget
• Table 3: Summary of Expense Changes Since the Budget
• Table 4: Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
• Table 5: Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Changes Since the Budget
• Table 6: Medium-Term Fiscal Plan and Outlook
• Table 7: Revenue
• Table 8: Total Expense
• Table 9: Other Expense
• Table 10: 2011–12 Infrastructure Expenditures
• Table 11: Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics

Chapter IV: Borrowing and Debt Management

• Table 1: 2011–12 Borrowing Program: Province and Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation (OEFC)
• Table 2: Medium-Term Borrowing Outlook: Province and Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation (OEFC)

Chapter I: Creating Ontario Jobs in an Uncertain Global Economy

• Chart 1: Global Economic Growth Forecasts Weakening
• Chart 2: 10-Year Government Bond Yields
• Chart 3: Sustained Gains in Business Machinery and Equipment Spending
• Chart 4: Ontario Vehicle Production
• Chart 5: Percentage of Grade 3 and 6 Students Achieving Provincial Standard in Reading, Writing and Math
• Chart 6: More Adults Have Postsecondary Credentials

Chapter II: Ontario's Economic Outlook

• Chart 1: Private-Sector Economic Forecasts for Ontario Softening
• Chart 2: Job Recovery in Ontario
• Chart 3: European Debt
• Chart 4: Weakening Global Economic Growth Forecasts
• Chart 5: U.S. Recession Deeper and Recovery Slower
• Chart 6: U.S. Light Motor Vehicle Sales Continue to Grow
• Chart 7: Continued High Oil Prices Expected
• Chart 8: Canadian Dollar to Remain Close to Parity
• Chart 9: Interest Rates to Rise
• Chart 10: Contributions to Real GDP Growth in 2011
• Chart 11: Ontario Real GDP Growth
• Chart 12: Increasing Employment
• Chart 13: Lower Unemployment Rate
• Chart 14: Sustained Gains in Household Spending
• Chart 15: Sustained Gains in Business Machinery and Equipment Spending
• Chart 16: Housing Starts to Remain Strong

Chapter III: Fiscal Outlook

• Chart 1: Ontario’s Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook
• Chart 2: Net Cost of Equalization to Ontarians (2011–12)
• Chart 3: Ontario’s Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook
• Chart 4: Composition of Revenue, 2011–12
• Chart 5: Composition of Total Expense, 2011–12
• Chart 6: Composition of Program Expense, 2011–12

Chapter IV: Borrowing and Debt Management

• Chart 1: 2011–12 Borrowing — Canadian Dollar Market
• Chart 2: 2011–12 Borrowing — International Markets
• Chart 3: Total Debt Composition as at September 30, 2011
• Chart 4: Net Debt-to-GDP
• Chart 5: Accumulated Deficit-to-GDP
• Chart 6: Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) on Total Debt
• Chart 7: Net Interest Rate Resetting Exposure
• Chart 8: Foreign Exchange Exposure