2013 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review

Chapter III: Fiscal Outlook

Section C: Details of Ontario’s Finances

Fiscal Tables and Charts

This section provides information on the Province’s historical financial performance, key fiscal indicators, and details of Ontario’s fiscal plan and outlook.

TABLE 3.4 Fiscal Summary
($ Millions)
    2013–14
  Actual
2012–13
Budget
Plan
Current
Outlook
Change since
Budget
Revenue 113,369 116,845 116,834 (11)
Expense        
Programs 112,248 116,983 116,970 (13)
Interest on Debt 10,341 10,605 10,605
Total Expense 122,589 127,588 127,575 (13)
Reserve 1,000 1,000
Surplus/(Deficit) (9,220) (11,743) (11,741) 2
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

 

TABLE 3.5 Revenue
($ Millions)
  2010–11 2011–12 Actual
2012–13
Current
Outlook

2013–14
Taxation Revenue        
Personal Income Tax 23,711 24,548 25,574 26,878
Sales Tax1 18,813 20,159 20,957 21,606
Corporations Tax 9,067 9,944 12,093 12,019
Education Property Tax2 5,659 5,765 5,511 5,694
Employer Health Tax 4,733 5,092 5,137 5,318
Ontario Health Premium 2,934 2,916 3,067 3,156
Gasoline Tax 2,358 2,380 2,390 2,377
Land Transfer Tax 1,247 1,432 1,484 1,462
Tobacco Tax 1,160 1,150 1,142 1,123
Fuel Tax 702 710 710 719
Beer and Wine Tax 397 561 560 574
Electricity Payments-In-Lieu of Taxes 321 367 324 366
Other Taxes 562 574 469 423
  71,664 75,598 79,418 81,715
Government of Canada        
Canada Health Transfer 10,184 10,705 11,315 12,067
Canada Social Transfer 4,330 4,469 4,591 4,727
Equalization 972 2,200 3,261 3,169
Infrastructure Programs 1,712 362 116 145
Labour Market Programs 1,201 904 897 905
Social Housing 493 489 483 468
Wait Times Reduction Fund 97 97 97 97
Other Federal Payments 4,052 2,079 901 897
  23,041 21,305 21,661 22,475
Government Business Enterprises        
Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation 1,956 1,882 1,816 2,020
Liquor Control Board of Ontario 1,562 1,659 1,721 1,747
Ontario Power Generation Inc./Hydro One Inc. 1,048 872 932 712
  4,566 4,413 4,469 4,479
Other Non-Tax Revenue        
Reimbursements 1,036 831 932 973
Vehicle and Driver Registration Fees 1,080 1,075 1,125 1,273
Electricity Debt Retirement Charge 944 952 939 957
Power Supply Contract Recoveries 1,288 1,372 1,323 1,274
Sales and Rentals 1,015 1,193 1,188 1,075
Other Fees and Licences 715 776 760 821
Net Reduction of Power Purchase Contract Liability 339 317 263 243
Royalties 145 200 226 242
Miscellaneous Other Non-Tax Revenue3 1,342 1,741 1,065 1,307
  7,904 8,457 7,821 8,165
Total Revenue 107,175 109,773 113,369 116,834
1 Beginning July 1, 2010, most of the Retail Sales Tax was replaced with a value-added tax and combined with the federal Goods and Services Tax to create a federally administered Harmonized Sales Tax (HST). Sales Tax revenue is net of the Ontario Sales Tax Credit and the energy component of the Ontario Energy and Property Tax Credit.
2 Education Property Tax revenue is net of the property tax credit component of the Ontario Energy and Property Tax Credit and the Ontario Senior Homeowners' Property Tax Grant.
3 Miscellaneous Other Non-Tax Revenue in 2011–12 is higher than other years due to one-time revenues including Chrysler's repayment of an Ontario loan and higher-than-usual recoveries of prior-year expenditures from government ministries.
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

 

TABLE 3.6 Total Expense
($ Millions)
Ministry Expense 2010–11 2011–12 Actual
2012–13
Current
Outlook

2013–14
Aboriginal Affairs1 65 67 65 64.7
Agriculture and Food / Rural Affairs1 895 1,038 1,017 1,034.5
Attorney General 1,594 1,705 1,683 1,751.3
Board of Internal Economy2 194 271 197 200.0
Children and Youth Services 3,882 3,943 3,999 4,160.9
Citizenship and Immigration 104 108 111 103.9
Community and Social Services 8,920 9,347 9,720 10,173.0
Community Safety and Correctional Services 2,216 2,171 2,282 2,326.1
Consumer Services 18 19 20 24.0
Economic Development, Trade and Employment / Research and Innovation1 876 973 963 911.1
Education1 21,871 22,944 23,044 24,147.6
Energy1 724 498 341 339.6
Environment1 512 529 491 495.2
Executive Offices 32 31 30 30.8
Finance1 1,050 932 847 1,043.8
Francophone Affairs, Office of 5 5 5 5.0
Government Services1 1,030 1,105 1,145 1,064.4
Health and Long-Term Care 44,414 46,503 47,582 48,854.9
Infrastructure1 305 331 66 221.7
Labour 186 184 280 305.4
Municipal Affairs and Housing1 881 824 827 789.6
Natural Resources1 718 713 688 702.5
Northern Development and Mines 704 726 718 799.6
Tourism, Culture and Sport1 1,086 1,180 1,431 1,197.3
Training, Colleges and Universities1 6,704 7,121 7,355 7,665.1
Transportation 2,263 2,339 2,479 2,767.1
Interest on Debt3 9,480 10,082 10,341 10,605.0
Other Expense1 10,457 7,053 4,862 6,791.0
Year-End Savings4 (1,000.0)
Total Expense 121,186 122,742 122,589 127,575.0
1 Details on other ministry expense can be found in Table 3.7, Other Expense.
2 The 2011–12 amount includes expenses for the 2011 general election.
3 Interest on debt is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $203 million in 2010–11, $234 million in 2011–12, $232 million in 2012–13 and $271 million in 2013–14.
4 As in past years, the Year-End Savings provision reflects anticipated underspending that has historically arisen at year-end due to factors such as program efficiencies, and changes in project startups and implementation plans.
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

 

TABLE 3.7 Other Expense
($ Millions)
Ministry Expense 2010–11 2011–12 Actual
2012–13
Current
Outlook
2013–14
Aboriginal Affairs        
One-Time Investments — Settlements 6 28
Agriculture and Food / Rural Affairs        
Time-Limited Investments in Infrastructure 1,496 247 19 136.3
Time-Limited Assistance 9
Economic Development, Trade and Employment / Research and Innovation        
Time-Limited Investments for Youth 50.0
Education        
One-Time Savings — Labour Savings (1,296)
Teachers' Pension Plan1 522 523 895 939.0
Energy        
Ontario Clean Energy Benefit 300 1,033 994 1,040.0
Environment        
Time-Limited Investments 78
Finance        
Harmonized Sales Tax Transitional Support 3,039 1,440
Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund 684 598 592 568.9
Operating Contingency Fund 442.7
Power Supply Contract Costs 1,288 1,375 1,323 1,274.0
Transition Fund 75.0
Government Services        
Pension and Other Employee Future Benefits 1,182 1,300 1,519 1,516.0
Infrastructure        
Capital Contingency Fund 98.8
Municipal Affairs and Housing        
Time-Limited Investments in Municipal Social and Affordable Housing 668 59 158 155.2
Time-Limited Investments 21 9 42 21.0
Natural Resources        
Emergency Forest Firefighting 100 209 180 102.7
Tourism, Culture and Sport        
Time-Limited Investments—Sport Program 288 37
One-Time Investments 22 3
Time-Limited Investments to Support the 2015 Pan/Parapan American Games 16 59 358 293.4
Training, Colleges and Universities        
Time-Limited Investments 816 133 78.0
Total Other Expense 10,457 7,053 4,862 6,791.0
1 Numbers reflect PSAB pension expense. Ontario's matching contributions to the plan grow from $1,316 million in 2010–11 to $1,452 million in 2013–14.
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

 

TABLE 3.8 2013–14 Infrastructure Expenditures
($ Millions)
  2013–14 Current Outlook
Sector Total Infrastructure
Expenditures
2012–13 Actual
Investment in
Capital Assets1
Transfers and Other
Infrastructure
Expenditures2
Total Infrastructure
Expenditures
Transportation        
Transit 2,382 2,892 485 3,377
Provincial Highways 2,104 2,228 2,228
Other Transportation3 694 652 84 736
Health        
Hospitals 3,897 2,672 205 2,877
Other Health 246 139 166 305
Education 1,725 1,938 65 2,003
Postsecondary        
Colleges 342 413 1 414
Universities 112 155 155
Water/Environment 273 59 108 168
Municipal and Local Infrastructure 590 297 468 765
Justice 658 300 93 393
Other 430 986 199 1,185
Subtotal 13,454 12,577 2,028 14,604
Less: Other Partner Funding4 1,665 1,040 1,040
Total Excluding Partner Funding 11,790 11,537 2,028 13,565
Less: Other Capital Contributions5 508 373 115 488
Total Provincial Expenditure6 11,282 11,164 1,913 13,077
1 Investment in Capital Assets includes interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $271 million.
2 Mainly consists of transfers for capital purposes to municipalities and universities, and expenditures for capital repairs.
3 Other transportation includes highway planning activities, property acquisition, highway service centres and other infrastructure programs (e.g., winter roads, remote airports).
4 Third-party contributions to capital investment in consolidated schools, colleges, hospitals and provincial agencies.
5 Mostly federal government transfers for capital investments. The 2012–13 amount includes $135 million to reflect federal contributions for prior years' investments in the Rt. Hon. Herb Gray (formerly Windsor-Essex) Parkway.
6 Total Provincial Infrastructure Expenditure includes Investment in Capital Assets of $9.6 billion for 2012–13.
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

 

TABLE 3.9 Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics1
($ Millions)
  2004–05 2005–062 2006–07
Revenue 84,192 90,738 97,120
Expense      
Programs 76,379 81,421 86,020
Interest on Debt4 9,368 9,019 8,831
Total Expense 85,747 90,440 94,851
Reserve
Surplus/(Deficit) (1,555) 298 2,269
Net Debt5 140,921 152,702 153,742
Accumulated Deficit 125,743 109,155 106,776
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Market Prices6 529,576 551,819 574,303
Primary Household Income6 347,617 363,623 383,803
Population — July (000s) 12,390 12,528 12,662
Net Debt per Capita (dollars) 11,374 12,189 12,142
Household Income per Capita (dollars)6 28,056 29,025 30,312
Interest on Debt as a per cent of Revenue 11.1 9.9 9.1
Net Debt as a per cent of GDP6 26.6 27.7 26.8
Accumulated Deficit as a per cent of GDP6 23.7 19.8 18.6

 

TABLE 3.9 Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics1 Continued
  2007–08 2008–09 2009–103 2010–11 2011–12 Actual 2012–13 Current
Outlook
2013–14
Revenue 104,115 97,532 96,313 107,175 109,773 113,369 116,834
Expense              
Programs 94,601 95,375 106,856 111,706 112,660 112,248 116,970
Interest on Debt4 8,914 8,566 8,719 9,480 10,082 10,341 10,605
Total Expense 103,515 103,941 115,575 121,186 122,742 122,589 127,575
Reserve 1,000
Surplus/(Deficit) 600 (6,409) (19,262) (14,011) (12,969) (9,220) (11,741)
Net Debt5 156,616 169,585 193,589 214,511 235,582 252,088 272,106
Accumulated Deficit 105,617 113,238 130,957 144,573 158,410 167,132 178,873
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Market Prices6 597,912 604,111 594,644 625,108 655,125 674,899 691,921
Primary Household Income6 401,305 412,197 410,859 423,685 441,639 455,947 469,226
Population — July (000s) 12,764 12,833 12,998 13,135 13,264 13,412 13,538
Net Debt per Capita (dollars) 12,270 13,164 14,894 16,331 17,762 18,796 20,099
Household Income per Capita (dollars)6 31,440 31,996 31,610 32,256 33,297 33,995 34,660
Interest on Debt as a per cent of Revenue 8.6 8.8 9.1 8.8 9.2 9.1 9.1
Net Debt as a per cent of GDP6 26.2 28.1 32.6 34.3 36.0 37.4 39.3
Accumulated Deficit as a per cent of GDP6 17.7 18.7 22.0 23.1 24.2 24.8 25.9
1 Revenue and expense have been restated to reflect a fiscally neutral accounting change for the revised presentation of education property taxes, as described in the 2010 Ontario Budget; a fiscally neutral accounting change related to the reclassification of government agencies and organizations as described in the 2011 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review; and a fiscally neutral reclassification of a number of tax measures that are transfers or grants, as described in the 2012 Ontario Budget.
2 Starting in 2005–06, the Province's financial reporting was expanded to include hospitals, school boards and colleges. Total expense prior to 2005–06 has not been restated to reflect expanded reporting.
3 Starting in 2009–10, investments in minor tangible capital assets owned by the Province were capitalized and amortized to expense. All capital assets owned by consolidated organizations are being accounted for in a similar manner.
4 Interest on debt is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $203 million in 2010–11, $234 million in 2011–12, $232 million in 2012–13 and $271 million in 2013–14.
5 Starting in 2009–10, Net Debt includes the net debt of hospitals, school boards and colleges, consistent with Public Sector Accounting Board standards. For comparative purposes, Net Debt has been restated from 2005–06 to 2008–09 to conform with this revised presentation. Net Debt has also been restated in 2004–05 and 2005–06 to reflect the value of hydro corridor lands transferred to the Province from Hydro One Inc.
6 Gross Domestic Product and Household Income amounts from 2007 to 2012 are based on Statistics Canada's new, revised standard for economic accounts — the CSNA 2012 (Canadian System of National Accounts), which includes conceptual, classification and methodological improvements. GDP and Household Income amounts prior to 2007 are Ontario Ministry of Finance estimates.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Chart 3.1 Composition of Revenue, 2013–14

Chart 3.2 Composition of Total Expense, 2013–14

Chart 3.3 Composition of Program Expense, 2013–14

Chart 3.1: Composition of Revenue, 2013­–14
This chart shows the share of total revenues in 2013–14 and dollar amounts by major revenue category. The largest taxation revenue source is personal income tax revenue at $26.9 billion, accounting for 23.0 per cent of total revenue. This is followed by Sales Tax at 21.6 billion, or 18.5 per cent of total revenue, and Corporations Tax at $12.0 billion, or 10.3 per cent of total revenue. Tax revenues in total account for $81.7 billion, or 69.9 per cent of total revenues. The other major non-taxation sources of revenue are Federal Transfers at $22.5 billion, or 19.2 per cent of total revenue, Income from Government Business Enterprises at $4.5 billion, or 3.8 per cent of total revenue, and various Other Non-Tax Revenues at $8.2 billion, or 7.0 per cent of total revenue.

Return to Chart 3.1

Chart 3.2: Composition of Total Expense, 2013­–14
This chart shows the share of total expense in 2013–14 and dollar amounts by sector. The largest expense is the Health Sector at $48.9 billion, accounting for 38.3 per cent of total expense. The remaining sectors of total expense include the Education Sector at $24.1 billion or 18.9 per cent; the Postsecondary and Training Sector at $7.7 billion or 6.1 per cent; the Children’s and Social Services Sector at $14.3 billion or 11.2 per cent; the Justice Sector at $4.1 billion or 3.2 per cent; and Other Programs at $17.8 billion or 14.0 per cent. Interest on Debt, included as part of Total Expense, is $10.6 billion or 8.3 per cent.
Note: The Education Sector excludes Teachers’ Pension Plan. Teachers’ Pension Plan expense is included in Other Programs.

Return to Chart 3.2

Chart 3.3: Composition of Program Expense, 2013­–14
This chart shows the share of program expense in 2013–14 and dollar amounts by sector. Program expense equals total expense minus interest on debt.
The largest expense is the Health Sector at $48.9 billion, accounting for 41.8 per cent of total expense.
The remaining sectors of program expense include the Education Sector at $24.1 billion or 20.6 per cent; the Postsecondary and Training Sector at $7.7 billion or 6.6 per cent; the Children’s and Social Services Sector at $14.3 billion or 12.3 per cent; the Justice Sector at $4.1 billion or 3.5 per cent; and Other Programs at $17.8 billion or 15.2 per cent.
Note: The Education Sector excludes Teachers’ Pension Plan. Teachers’ Pension Plan expense is included in Other Programs.

Return to Chart 3.3