2008-09 First Quarter |
Quarterly Update - JuNe 30, 2008 |
Ministry of Finance |
| Fiscal Summary | 2008–09 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($ Millions) | Interim 2007–08 |
Budget Plan |
Current* Outlook |
In-Year Change |
| Revenue | 96,563 | 96,920 | 96,920 | – |
| Expense | ||||
| Programs | 86,997 | 87,279 | 87,279 | – |
| Interest on Debt | 8,966 | 8,891 | 8,891 | – |
| Total Expense | 95,963 | 96,170 | 96,170 | – |
| Reserve | – | 750 | 750 | – |
| Surplus / (Deficit) | 600 | 0 | 0 | – |
| * First-quarter fiscal forecast as at June 30, 2008. | ||||
In the 2008 Ontario Budget, the government outlined a fiscal plan that projected a $600 million surplus in 200708, and ongoing balanced budgets between 200809 and 201011.
The 200809 first-quarter results indicate that the government remains on track to achieve the balanced budget outlook presented in the 2008 Budget. The revenue outlook at $96,920 million, and the total expense outlook at $96,170 million, are both unchanged from the fiscal outlook presented in the 2008 Budget.
The 200809 current outlook continues to include a $750 million reserve to help protect the fiscal plan against adverse changes in the Provinces revenue and expense, including those resulting from changes in Ontarios economic performance. As well, the government remains prudent and disciplined in its approach to managing the Provinces finances.
The consensus forecast now predicts slower economic growth for Ontario than was predicted in the 2008 Budget. However, it is still too early in the fiscal year to determine how this will affect the Provinces revenue and expense outlook. Therefore, the government will continue to closely monitor risks to the economic and fiscal outlook, working to ensure that fiscal targets are met. The Province will also continue to make investments that support the five-point economic plan for growth and job creation in Ontario.
Final results for 200708 will be presented later in the summer in the Ontario Public Accounts. The 200708 Ontario Public Accounts will confirm whether the $600 million surplus projected in the 2008 Budget has been achieved, and whether the new Investing in Ontario Act, 2008, will be applied.
Updated information on the Provinces medium-term fiscal outlook, including the management of the fiscal plan in the face of slower-than-anticipated economic growth, will be provided in the 2008 Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review later this fall.

Ontarios growth is expected to be modest in 2008, following an increase of 2.2 per cent in 2007. Ontarios economy continues to be challenged by external factors including weak U.S. demand and the related turbulence in financial markets, rapidly rising oil prices, the ongoing high value of the Canadian dollar, increased competition from newly industrialized economies and restructuring in the auto sector. The outlook for 2008 has deteriorated since the March Budget, largely reflecting the unexpected rise in oil prices and weaker-than-expected U.S. demand for Ontarios exports. As of June 27, private-sector forecasters, on average, project Ontario real GDP growth of 0.6 per cent in 2008, down from 1.2 per cent at the time of the 2008 Budget. The Ministry of Finances assumption for real GDP growth in the 2008 Budget (1.1 per cent) was below the average private-sector forecast at that time.
Private-sector forecasters, on average, expect nominal GDP (measured in current dollars) to increase by 2.7 per cent in 2008, down from 3.0 per cent at the time of the 2008 Ontario Budget.
More information on Ontarios economic performance in 2008 can be found in the First Quarter Ontario Economic Accounts.
The revenue outlook, at $96,920 million, is unchanged from the fiscal outlook presented in the 2008 Budget. Risks to the 200809 revenue outlook include a decline in the private-sector average outlook for real economic growth in calendar-year 2008 and risks to Corporations Tax revenues related to write-offs in the financial sector. The revenue outlook, however, remains prudent with respect to other economic indicators including growth in 2008 wages and salaries, as well as retail sales. As new information becomes available, any changes to the revenue outlook will be provided in future fiscal updates.
Total expense, at $96,170 million, is unchanged from the 2008 Budget forecast. Ministry program expense changes this quarter, and the corresponding offsets, include:
Interest on debt expense for the year remains unchanged from the 2008 Budget, at $8,891.0 million.
The 200809 fiscal outlook includes a $750 million reserve to help protect the fiscal plan against adverse changes in the Provinces revenue and expense, including those resulting from changes in Ontarios economic performance.
| Statement of Financial Transactions | 2004–05 | 2005–06 | 2006–07 | Interim 2007–08 |
Current* Outlook 2008–09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ($ Millions) | |||||
| Revenue | 77,841 | 84,225 | 90,397 | 96,563 | 96,920 |
| Expense | |||||
| Programs | 70,028 | 74,908 | 79,297 | 86,997 | 87,279 |
| Interest on Debt | 9,368 | 9,019 | 8,831 | 8,966 | 8,891 |
| Total Expense | 79,396 | 83,927 | 88,128 | 95,963 | 96,170 |
| Reserve | – | – | – | – | 750 |
| Surplus / (Deficit) | (1,555) | 298 | 2,269 | 600 | 0 |
| Net Debt†,‡ | 140,921 | 141,928 | 141,100 | 142,839 | 146,232 |
| Accumulated Deficit† | 125,743 | 109,155 | 106,776 | 106,176 | 106,176 |
| Note: Starting in 2005–06, the Province's financial reporting was expanded to include hospitals, school boards and colleges using one-line consolidation. Total expense prior to 2005–06 has not been restated to reflect expanded reporting. | |||||
| * First-quarter fiscal forecast as at June 30, 2008. | |||||
| † Net Debt is calculated as the difference between liabilities and financial assets. The annual change in Net Debt is equal to the surplus/deficit of the Province plus the change in tangible capital assets and the change in net assets of hospitals, school boards and colleges. Accumulated Deficit is calculated as the difference between liabilities and total assets including tangible capital assets and net assets of hospitals, school boards and colleges. The annual change in the Accumulated Deficit is equal to the surplus/deficit. For fiscal 2005–06, the change in the Accumulated Deficit includes the opening combined net assets of hospitals, school boards and colleges that were recognized upon consolidation of these Broader Public Sector entities. For fiscal 2006–07, the change in the Accumulated Deficit includes an adjustment to the unfunded liability of the Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation made at the beginning of the year. | |||||
| ‡ Net Debt is restated in 2004–05 and 2005–06 to reflect the value of hydro corridor lands transferred to the Province from Hydro One Inc. | |||||
| Selected Economic and Fiscal Statistics | |||||
| 2004–05 | 2005–06 | 2006–07 | Interim 2007–08 |
Current* Outlook 2008–09 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Market Prices ($ Millions) | 517,068 | 536,431 | 559,840 | 584,053 | 600,406 |
| Ontario Population (000s) – July 1 | 12,420 | 12,565 | 12,705 | 12,804 | 12,920 |
| Personal Income ($ Millions) | 401,066 | 419,253 | 441,371 | 463,520 | 477,889 |
| Personal Income per Capita (dollars) | 32,291 | 33,366 | 34,739 | 36,202 | 36,989 |
| Ontario Revenue as a per cent of GDP | 15.1 | 15.7 | 16.1 | 16.5 | 16.1 |
| Ontario Total Expense as a per cent of GDP | 15.4 | 15.6 | 15.7 | 16.4 | 16.0 |
| Ontario Total Program Expense as a per cent of GDP | 13.5 | 14.0 | 14.2 | 14.9 | 14.5 |
| Ontario Interest on Debt as a per cent of Total Expense | 11.8 | 10.7 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 9.2 |
| Ontario Interest on Debt as a per cent of GDP | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Ontario Surplus / (Deficit) as a per cent of GDP | (0.3) | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Net Debt as a per cent of GDP | 27.3 | 26.5 | 25.2 | 24.5 | 24.4 |
| Accumulated Deficit as a per cent of GDP | 24.3 | 20.3 | 19.1 | 18.2 | 17.7 |
| * First-quarter fiscal forecast as at June 30, 2008. | |||||
| Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada. | |||||
| Key Economic Indicators (Per cent change from previous period, unless indicated otherwise) |
||||||||
| Annual 2006 |
Annual 2007 |
Quarterly | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:1 | 07:2 | 07:3 | 07:4 | 08:1 | ||||
| Output (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||||
| Real GDP | Ontario | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | (0.3) |
| Nominal GDP | Ontario | 4.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Annual 2006 |
Annual 2007 |
Monthly 2008 | ||||||
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | ||||
| Other Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||||
| Labour Markets | ||||||||
| Labour Force (Change in 000s) | 78.2 | 116.2 | (2.3) | 31.5 | 21.9 | 6.9 | 14.3 | |
| Employment (Change in 000s) | 95.0 | 101.1 | 12.9 | 46.2 | (1.8) | 12.2 | 11.2 | |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.4 | |
| Household Sector | ||||||||
| Retail Sales | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 | (1.7) | 1.0 | 0.7 | N/A | |
| Housing Starts (000s)* | 73.4 | 68.1 | 74.2 | 81.8 | 80.0 | 76.6 | 71.2 | |
| MLS Home Resales** | (1.1) | 9.5 | (5.7) | (7.2) | (18.1) | (4.8) | N/A | |
| Manufacturing Shipments | (3.2) | (1.1) | 1.7 | 2.1 | (3.2) | 1.4 | N/A | |
| Transportation Equipment | (7.1) | (3.0) | 3.4 | 8.8 | (7.9) | (0.5) | N/A | |
| Consumer Price Index** | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 | |
| * Monthly housing starts are expressed at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. | ||||||||
| ** Per cent change from a year earlier. | ||||||||
| N/A = Data not available. | ||||||||
| Sources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Canadian Real Estate Association. | ||||||||
| ($ Millions) | 2008–09 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interim 2007–08 |
Budget Plan | Current* Outlook |
In-Year Change |
|
| Taxation Revenue | ||||
| Personal Income Tax | 24,666 | 25,171 | 25,171 | – |
| Retail Sales Tax | 16,880 | 17,206 | 17,206 | – |
| Corporations Tax | 12,746 | 12,339 | 12,339 | – |
| Employer Health Tax | 4,672 | 4,821 | 4,821 | – |
| Ontario Health Premium | 2,708 | 2,809 | 2,809 | – |
| Gasoline Tax | 2,357 | 2,380 | 2,380 | – |
| Land Transfer Tax | 1,422 | 1,343 | 1,343 | – |
| Tobacco Tax | 1,121 | 1,092 | 1,092 | – |
| Fuel Tax | 726 | 742 | 742 | – |
| Electricity Payments-In-Lieu of Taxes | 558 | 600 | 600 | – |
| Other Taxes | 466 | 472 | 472 | – |
| 68,322 | 68,975 | 68,975 | – | |
| Government of Canada | ||||
| Canada Health Transfer (CHT) | 8,445 | 8,826 | 8,826 | – |
| Canada Social Transfer (CST) | 3,872 | 4,089 | 4,089 | – |
| Social Housing | 517 | 514 | 514 | – |
| Wait Times Reduction Fund | 468 | 235 | 235 | – |
| Infrastructure Programs | 219 | 234 | 234 | – |
| Other Government of Canada | 3,343 | 2,559 | 2,559 | – |
| 16,864 | 16,457 | 16,457 | – | |
| Income from Investment in Government Business Enterprises | ||||
| Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation | 1,805 | 1,772 | 1,772 | – |
| Liquor Control Board of Ontario | 1,366 | 1,420 | 1,420 | – |
| Ontario Power Generation Inc. and Hydro One Inc. | 930 | 930 | 930 | – |
| Other Government Enterprises | 2 | – | – | – |
| 4,103 | 4,122 | 4,122 | – | |
| Other Non-Tax Revenue | ||||
| Reimbursements | 1,524 | 1,412 | 1,412 | – |
| Vehicle and Driver Registration Fees | 1,027 | 1,044 | 1,044 | – |
| Electricity Debt Retirement Charge | 995 | 1,004 | 1,004 | – |
| Power Sales | 831 | 856 | 856 | – |
| Sales and Rentals | 523 | 701 | 701 | – |
| Other Fees and Licences | 624 | 615 | 615 | – |
| Liquor Licence Revenue | 454 | 454 | 454 | – |
| Net Reduction of Power Purchase Contract Liability | 398 | 373 | 373 | – |
| Royalties | 211 | 242 | 242 | – |
| Miscellaneous Other Non-Tax Revenue | 687 | 665 | 665 | – |
| 7,274 | 7,366 | 7,366 | – | |
| Total Revenue | 96,563 | 96,920 | 96,920 | – |
| * First-quarter fiscal forecast as at June 30, 2008. | ||||
| ($ Millions) | 2008–09 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interim 2007–08 |
Budget Plan | Current* Outlook |
In-Year Change |
|
| Ministry Expense | ||||
| Aboriginal Affairs** | 235.7 | 55.6 | 55.6 | – |
| Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs** | 946.7 | 1,112.1 | 1,112.1 | – |
| Attorney General | 1,686.8 | 1,592.4 | 1,592.4 | – |
| Board of Internal Economy | 244.9 | 173.9 | 196.3 | 22.4 |
| Children and Youth Services | 3,703.3 | 4,074.3 | 4,085.9 | 11.6 |
| Citizenship and Immigration | 91.3 | 88.6 | 88.6 | – |
| Community and Social Services | 7,617.8 | 7,727.2 | 7,727.2 | – |
| Community Safety and Correctional Services | 2,004.7 | 2,110.4 | 2,110.4 | – |
| Culture** | 405.4 | 379.8 | 379.8 | – |
| Economic Development and Trade** | 457.2 | 445.3 | 445.3 | – |
| Education | 462.9 | 472.5 | 472.5 | – |
| School Boards' Net Expense | 11,921.5 | 12,669.7 | 12,669.7 | – |
| Energy | 301.5 | 304.4 | 304.4 | – |
| Environment | 349.3 | 398.0 | 398.0 | – |
| Executive Offices | 36.5 | 35.2 | 36.3 | 1.1 |
| Finance | 465.7 | 559.1 | 559.1 | – |
| Francophone Affairs, Office of | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | – |
| Government and Consumer Services | 958.4 | 1,102.0 | 1,105.1 | 3.1 |
| Health and Long-Term Care | 20,353.1 | 21,621.9 | 21,618.8 | (3.1) |
| Hospitals' Net Expense | 17,382.7 | 18,436.3 | 18,436.3 | – |
| Health Promotion | 367.3 | 389.7 | 389.7 | – |
| Labour | 159.8 | 170.2 | 170.2 | – |
| Municipal Affairs and Housing** | 847.1 | 795.9 | 795.9 | – |
| Natural Resources | 803.3 | 780.5 | 780.5 | – |
| Northern Development and Mines | 343.6 | 357.5 | 357.5 | – |
| Public Infrastructure Renewal** | 619.3 | (33.0) | (33.0) | – |
| Research and Innovation** | 396.0 | 382.8 | 382.8 | – |
| Revenue | 577.5 | 610.6 | 610.6 | – |
| Small Business and Entrepreneurship | 31.7 | 27.8 | 27.8 | – |
| Tourism | 242.5 | 176.1 | 176.1 | – |
| Training, Colleges and Universities** | 5,105.0 | 4,825.8 | 4,825.8 | – |
| Colleges' Net Expense | 1,508.7 | 1,414.5 | 1,414.5 | – |
| Transportation** | 3,419.5 | 1,961.7 | 1,961.7 | – |
| Other Expense | ||||
| Capital Contingency Fund | – | 175.0 | 175.0 | – |
| Interest on Debt | 8,966.0 | 8,891.0 | 8,891.0 | – |
| Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund | 916.7 | 934.8 | 934.8 | – |
| One-Time and Extraordinary Assistance to Agriculture Sector | 283.7 | – | – | – |
| Operating Contingency Fund | 50.0 | 420.0 | 385.0 | (35.0) |
| Pension and Other Employee Future Benefits | 522.0 | 715.0 | 715.0 | – |
| Power Purchases | 831.0 | 856.0 | 856.0 | – |
| Teachers' Pension Plan | 342.0 | 54.0 | 54.0 | – |
| Year-End Savings | – | (1,100.0) | (1,100.0) | – |
| Total Expense | 95,963.2 | 96,169.7 | 96,169.7 | – |
| * First-quarter fiscal forecast as at June 30, 2008. | ||||
| ** The 2007–08 interim outlook includes one-time funding, as outlined in the Other Expense Table (Table 23) in the 2008 Ontario Budget. | ||||
| Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Table does not reflect recently announced creation of the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure. | ||||
| ($ Millions) | 2008–09 Current Outlook* | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector | Total Infrastructure Expenditures 2007–08 Interim |
Investment in Capital Assets | Transfers and Other Expenditures in Infrastructure** |
Total Infrastructure Expenditures |
| Transportation | ||||
| Transit | 1,925.3 | 901.0 | 349.9 | 1,250.9 |
| Highways | 1,345.7 | 1,484.3 | – | 1,484.3 |
| Other Transportation† | 832.8 | 520.5 | 70.7 | 591.3 |
| Health | ||||
| Hospitals | 674.1 | 1,045.7 | 2.5 | 1,048.2 |
| Other Health | 241.8 | 60.8 | 187.4 | 248.1 |
| Education | ||||
| School Boards | 1,000.4 | – | 1,018.6 | 1,018.6 |
| Colleges | 181.3 | 202.0 | – | 202.0 |
| Universities | 677.0 | – | 54.8 | 54.8 |
| Water/Environment | 259.5 | 16.3 | 286.9 | 303.2 |
| Municipal and Local Infrastructure†† | 816.8 | 33.1 | 273.1 | 306.2 |
| Justice | 215.5 | 426.2 | 49.7 | 475.9 |
| Other | 700.8 | 244.9 | 295.9 | 540.8 |
| Total ‡ | 8,871.1 | 4,934.7 | 2,589.5 | 7,524.2 |
| * First-quarter fiscal forecast as at June 30, 2008. | ||||
| ** Mainly consists of transfers for capital purposes to municipalities and universities, expenditures for servicing capital-related debt of schools, and expenditures for the repair and rehabilitation of schools. These expenditures are included in the Province's Total Expenses in the Total Expense Table. | ||||
| † Other Transportation includes planning activities, property acquisition, and other infrastructure programs (e.g., Municipal/Local Roads, Remote Airports). | ||||
| †† Municipal and local water and wastewater infrastructure investments are included in the Water/Environment sector. | ||||
| ‡ Total expenditures include $48 million in flow-throughs in Investment in Capital Assets (for provincial highways) and $225 million in flow-throughs in Transfers and Other Expenditures in Infrastructure ($15 million in Transportation, $15 million in Health, $67 million in Water/Environment and $128 million in Municipal and Local Infrastructure). | ||||
| Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding. | ||||
| Province and Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation | ||||
| ($ Millions) | ||||
| 2008–09 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interim 2007–08 |
Budget Plan |
Current* Outlook |
In-Year Change |
|
| Deficit / (Surplus) | (600) | 0 | 0 | – |
| Non-Cash Adjustments | (338) | (888) | (888) | – |
| Investment in Capital Assets | 3,603 | 4,935 | 4,935 | – |
| Net Loans / Investments | 2,257 | 1,320 | 1,090 | (230) |
| Debt Maturities | 13,547 | 20,492 | 20,495 | 3 |
| Debt Redemptions | 1,314 | 1,049 | 1,049 | – |
| Total Funding Requirement | 19,782 | 26,907 | 26,681 | (227) |
| Canada Pension Plan Borrowing | (260) | (589) | (521) | 68 |
| Decrease / (Increase) in Short-Term Borrowing | (1,363) | (2,000) | (2,000) | – |
| Increase / (Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents | (185) | 0 | 159 | 159 |
| Total Long-Term Public Borrowing Requirement | 17,973 | 24,318 | 24,318 | – |
| * First-quarter fiscal forecast as at June 30, 2008. | ||||
| Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding. | ||||
| Borrowing Program Status (as at June 30, 2008) ($ Billions) |
|||
| Completed | Remaining | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Province | 6.7 | 14.0 | 20.7 |
| Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation | 1.2 | 2.4 | 3.6 |
| Total | 7.9 | 16.4 | 24.3 |
| ($ Billions) | |
| Ontario Savings Bonds | 0.4 |
| Domestic Issues | 4.7 |
| Global/US Dollar/Other Issues | 2.8 |
| 7.9 |
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