Ontario Finance Survey
March 2004
Methodology
Direction
Economy
Priorities and Performance
The New Government
Deficit
Conclusions
Methodology
1501 interviews in Ontario
- Margin of error +/- 2.53%
- Data was weighted to accurately reflect the demographic profile of the province.
Direction of Ontario
Ontarians are unsure of the direction of the province 45% feel it is heading in the right direction, and 47% feel the province is heading in the wrong direction.
- Residents of the Northeast Metro (51%) area are most likely to say the province is heading in right direction while residents of Eastern Ontario (42%) are least likely to feel the province is heading in the right direction.
Turning to the direction of the Government of Ontario, we see that 54% feel that the Government is on the right track with only 36% feeling that it is on the wrong track.
- Residents of Central Ontario (62%) and women (57%) are most likely to think the Government is on the right track.
- Residents of Eastern Ontario are also least likely to say the Government of Ontario is on the right track.
The reasons given for why the government is on the right track vary, most notably are:
- 14% general positive attributes of the Government
- 11% anticipating improvement
The most frequently stated reasons for while Ontarians feel the Government is on the wrong track are:
- 30% general negative attributes of the Government
- 13% general economic issues
Direction of Province
Some people say that, while the Province of Ontario has some problems, the Province is generally headed in the right direction at the current time. Other people say that there are more things going badly than well in the Province right now and that the Province is headed in the wrong direction.
Which of those two statements is closer to your own opinion?
Some people say that, while the Province of Ontario has some problems, the Province is generally headed in the right direction at the current time. Other people say that there are more things going badly than well in the Province right now and that the Province is headed in the wrong direction.
% saying right direction?
Direction of Ontario Government
Do you feel that the Ontario Government is on the right track or on the wrong track?
Do you feel that the Ontario Government is on the right track or on the wrong track?
% saying right track
Direction of Ontario Government by Gender
Do you feel that the Ontario Government is on the right track or on the wrong track?
Direction of Ontario Government
Do you feel that the Ontario Government is on the right track or on the wrong track?
Why would you say that?
Reasons given by those saying right track
Do you feel that the Ontario Government is on the right track or on the wrong track?
Why would you say that?
Reasons given by those saying wrong track
The Economy
Overall outlook on the economy is generally optimistic with 56% feeling that the economy is growing moderately, however, only 6% feel the the economy is strongly growing.
Reasons given for why residents feel the economy is growing are:
- 20% general economic issues
- 18% employment rate
- 11% personal experience/opinion
The most frequently cited reason for the economy declining is also general economic issues (25%), employment rate (15%) followed by general social issues (10%). There appears to be two separate groups of Ontarians that view the economy very differently. Not surprisingly, those reporting an income over $75k feel that the economy is growing.
Looking to the future 50% Ontarians feel that the economy will remain the same. As well, 45% feel that their personal economic situation will remain the same, with 42% feeling their personal economic situation will get better in the future.
Only 32% of Ontario residents are confident about the economy now that there is a new government. In focus groups there was virtually no one who had a sense of what the government's plan for the economy might be, but most presumed it had to be better that the previous government's.
It is interesting to note that 13% of respondents cited general economic issues as a reason the Government of Ontario is on the wrong track.
State of Ontario's Economy
In general, how would you describe the state of the economy in Ontario today? Would you say
that it is in a period of strong growth, moderate or slow growth, neither growing nor declining,
moderate decline or strong decline?
In general, how would you describe the state of the economy in Ontario today? Would you say
that it is in a period of strong growth, moderate or slow growth, neither growing nor declining,
moderate decline or strong decline?
Reasons for State of Ontario's Economy
In general, how would you describe the state of the economy in Ontario today? Would you say
that it is in a period of strong growth, moderate or slow growth, neither growing nor declining,
moderate decline or strong decline?
Why would you say that?
Reasons given by those saying economy growing
In general, how would you describe the state of the economy in Ontario today? Would you say
that it is in a period of strong growth, moderate or slow growth, neither growing nor declining,
moderate decline or strong decline?
Why would you say that?
Reasons given by those saying economy declining
Future of the Economy
Looking ahead to one year from now, do you think the economy will be stronger than it is today,
weaker than it is today or about the same as it is today?
Personal Economic Situation
How would you say your personal financial or economic situation is today. Would you say you
expect your personal financial or economic situation to get better, get worse or stay about the
same?
Future Personal Economic Situation
How do you expect your personal financial or economic situation to be one year from now -
compared to what it is like today? Do you expect that your personal financial or economic
situation will be in better shape than it is now, worse than it is now, or no different from now?
Government and the Economy
I am going to read you a series of statements some people might make and ask you to tell me
whether you agree or disagree with them.
Priorities and Performance
Building a strong economy (87%) is the top priority, followed closely by reducing waiting times for health care (86%) and having enough electricity (86%). Of less importance to Ontarians are not increasing income taxes (64%) and reducing income taxes (59%).
The province gets its highest performance ratings for having enough electricity (43%) and Building a strong economy (41%). While its receives its lowest performance rating on reducing wait times for health care (29%), reducing elementary class sizes (28%) and reducing income taxes (27%).
The economy and electricity are key drivers for the Province, while reducing waiting times for health care, and reducing crime is seen as a key challenge.
Although performance ratings on individual issues are somewhat low, the Government's overall performance rating is high (78%). 45% give the government a fair rating, 31% give a good rating, however only 2% give an excellent rating.
The government receives its highest performance rating from Central (83%) and Northern (80%) Ontario.
Priorities of the Government of Ontario
How much priority would you like the Ontario Government to place on each of the following
issues?
How about...
Performance of the Government of Ontario
Now I would like to ask you how satisfied you are with the performance of the Ontario
Government to date on these same issues?
Mapping Priorities and Performance
Performance of the Government of Ontario
How would you rate the performance of the Ontario Government overall - excellent, good, fair or
poor?
How would you rate the performance of the Ontario Government overall – excellent, good, fair or
poor?
The New Government
The Majority of Ontarians (61%) believe that the Government is not taking its election commitments seriously. This is interesting considering 53% feel that it is more important to fulfill its election promises than balance the budget.
If one election promise should be kept, most Ontarians feel that it should be more money for health care, education and municipalities (66%).
- 19% feel it should be the promise of no tax increases
- 14% think it should be to balance the budget
When comparing no tax increases to a balanced budget, the previous sentiment holds. 54% of Ontario residents believe its more important for the premier to keep his promise not to raise taxes than it is to balance the budget.
The overall view of the new government is generally favourable.The majority of respondents feel that the new government is well intentioned, and 41% feel that they will do a better job at managing the finances more carefully. However, the plurality of Ontarians (38%) do not feel that they have a sense of the government's plan.
In focus groups the majority accorded the government a cautious benefit of the doubt largely based on antipathy to the previous government.
However, there was a deep and worrying cynicism about government and politicians in general. Most pointed to a repetitive pattern of broken promises.
Commitment of Government
Which of the following statements is
closest to your own view? The Government takes its election commitments
seriously and will try its best to fulfill them, or This Government
does not take its election commitments seriously and is looking
for excuses to break them.
Election Promises vs. Balanced Budget
Which of the following statements comes
closest to your own view? It is more important for the Government
to balance the budget than to fulfill its other election promises,
or It is more important for the Government to fulfill its other
election promises than to balance the budget?
Keeping Election Promises
Given the deficit situation, it may be impossible for the Government to fulfil all the promises it
made in the election campaign. Which of these three broad promises is it most important that
the Government keep?
Government and Taxes
I am going to read you a series of statements some people might make and ask you to tell me
whether you agree or disagree with them.
Image of the New Government
I am going to read you a series of statements some people might make and ask you to tell me
whether you agree or disagree with them.
Sense of the Government
I am going to read you a series of statements some people might make and ask you to tell me
whether you agree or disagree with them.
Deficit
All most 3 in 5 Ontarians think that the current financial situation of the province is worse than the previous government said, but not as bad as the current government says it is.
Data from focus groups supports the above finding. Most believe that the government has overstated the size of the current deficit to gain political advantage and to justify not implementing promises.
When asked why would the government be making the province's financial situation worse that it is, the reason varied:
- 23% excuse for breaking election promises
- 15% to make previous government look bad
- 11% to make themselves look good.
Almost half of Ontarians feel the best approach to the deficit is to eliminate it in 2 years by increasing spending by 2.3%.
Ontarians believe the best way to address the deficit is by a mix of spending reductions and user fee/tax increases (63%). The preference for increases in user fees is illustrated in the paired choices table. User fees are favoured over slowing health care spending (78%) to reducing electricity subsidies (61%).
From the focus groups we see that given the size of the deficit, most Ontarians said they would prefer the government to breach promises than to cause lasting difficulty by honouring them. Furthermore, many do not see user fees as as a breach of the promise not to raise taxes.
The Ontario Government has announced that the Province is running a deficit of over 5 billion
dollars, instead of having a balanced budget as the previous Government had claimed. Which of
the following statements comes closest to your own view?
Deficit: Worse than it is?
Why would the Government be making the province's financial situation worse than it is?
Plan for Eliminating the Deficit
Economists and the Minister of Finance say that if no action is taken there will be an ongoing
deficit of about 5.6 billion dollars a year. Do you think the Government's plan to eliminate the
deficit should...?
Preferred Approaches for Eliminating the Deficit
Which of the following three approaches of the deficit would you prefer...?
Eliminating the Deficit: Paired Choices
If, in order to eliminate the deficit, you had to choose between...?
| Chosen Over... | |||||||
| Slow HC spending |
Slow education spending |
Increase personal income taxes |
Reduce electricity subsidies |
Increase user fees |
Increase provincial sales tax |
No extra funding to municipalities |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slow HC spending |
58 | 63 | 73 | 78 | 59 | 59 | |
| Slow education spending |
30 | 54 | 65 | 77 | 50 | 57 | |
| Increase personal income taxes |
28 | 38 | 65 | 73 | 42 | 40 | |
| Reduce electricity subsidies |
21 | 27 | 29 | 61 | 23 | 33 | |
| Increase user fees |
17 | 15 | 18 | 32 | 14 | 22 | |
| Increase provincial sales tax |
30 | 42 | 43 | 66 | 74 | 44 | |
| No extra funding to municipalities |
33 | 36 | 48 | 59 | 69 | 47 | |
Conclusions
The overall opinion of the government is moderately favourable. The majority of Ontarians feel that the government is on the right track, and that the government is well intentioned.
However, many believe that its not taking its elections promises seriously. This coupled with the fact that 38% of Ontarians feel that the government dosen't have a plan might be of concern for the province.
The economy is a top of mind priority, even though most feel that the economy is moderately growing.
Ontarians believe that there is in fact a deficit, however it is not as bad as the current government is stating. The preferred approach for liminating the deficit is a mix of spending reductions and user fee/tax increases.
User fees are preferred rather than cutting health care of education spending, and increasing the provincial sales tax