2010 Ontario Budget: Chapter IV: Borrowing and Debt Management

Highlights

  • The total funding requirement for 2009–10 has declined by $6 billion since the Fall 2009 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, due primarily to the $3.4 billion decline in the projected deficit.
  • Long-term public borrowing is forecast at $39.7 billion for 2010–11, down $4.1 billion from $43.8 billion for 2009–10.
  • Interest on debt expense is $476 million lower than forecast in the Fall 2009 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, reflecting lower-than-forecast interest rates, more financing at shorter-term maturities and a lower deficit.
  • Total debt is projected to be $212.4 billion as at March 31, 2010.
  • Net debt is projected to be $193.2 billion as at March 31, 2010.
  • In 2009–10, Canada’s and Ontario’s net debt-to-GDP ratios were well below those of G7 countries.
  • Ontario’s net debt-to-GDP level was near the median for Canadian provinces in 2008–09, the most recent year for which data are available.
  • For 2010–11, the impact of a one per cent increase in interest rates would be an estimated additional $480 million in interest cost for the Province.

Long-Term Public Borrowing

Ontario successfully completed its largest annual borrowing program in 2009–10, despite continuing challenges in global financial markets. It did so mainly through greater diversification in international bond markets and by being responsive to its bond investors.

The interim long-term borrowing for 2009–10 is $43.8 billion, compared to $42.6 billion in the Fall 2009 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. The difference is primarily due to a decision to increase cash reserves, partially offset by the $3.4 billion reduction in the deficit.

In 2009–10, 51 per cent ($22.4 billion) was borrowed in international capital markets. Bonds issued in foreign currencies were:

  • Global bonds in U.S. dollars
  • Euro Medium-Term Notes (EMTNs) in euros, Swiss francs and Hong Kong dollars.

About $21.4 billion, or 49 per cent, of borrowing was completed in the domestic market through a number of instruments, including:

  • syndicated issues
  • floating rate notes
  • Ontario Savings Bonds
  • real return bonds.
Chart 1:	Pie Chart: Borrowing - Domestic Market
Table 1
2009–10 Borrowing Program:
Province and Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation
($ Billions)
  Fall Outlook  Interim In-Year Change
Deficit 24.7 21.3 (3.4)
Investment in Capital Assets 9.5 8.5 (1.0)
Non-Cash Adjustments 0.5 (0.6) (1.1)
Net Loans/Investments 1.6 1.3 (0.3)
Debt Maturities 14.7 14.6 (0.1)
Debt Redemptions 0.4 0.4
Total Funding Requirement 51.5 45.5 (6.0)
Canada Pension Plan Borrowing (1.1) (1.1)
Decrease/(Increase) in Short-Term Borrowing (7.8) (6.0) 1.8
Increase/(Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents 5.5 5.5
Total Long-Term Public Borrowing 42.6 43.8 1.2
  • Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

The total funding requirement for 2009–10 has declined by $6 billion since the Fall 2009 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, primarily due to the decline in the projected deficit. This has allowed the Province to increase its cash balance, which will provide greater flexibility in meeting its funding requirement for 2010–11.

Interest on debt (IOD) expense, at $8,930 million, is $476 million lower than forecast in the Fall 2009 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. This reduction in IOD reflects the impact of lower-than-forecast interest rates on floating rate debt, more financing at shorter-term maturities, and a lower deficit than forecast in the Fall 2009 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.

Table 2
Medium-Term Borrowing Outlook:
Province and Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation
($ Billions)
  2010–11 2011–12 2012–13
Deficit 19.7 17.3 15.9
Investment in Capital Assets 9.8 10.6 10.4
Non-Cash Adjustments (1.7) (3.0) (2.8)
Net Loans/Investments 1.9 1.8 1.0
Debt Maturities 15.6 14.0 17.3
Debt Redemptions 0.4 0.4 0.5
Total Funding Requirement 45.6 41.1 42.2
Canada Pension Plan Borrowing (0.8) (1.1) (0.8)
Decrease/(Increase) in Short-Term Borrowing (1.6) (1.2) (1.2)
Increase/(Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents (3.5)
Total Long-Term Public Borrowing 39.7 38.8 40.2
  • Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

The 2010–11 borrowing requirements are primarily the result of the deficit, investments in capital assets and the refinancing of debt maturities. To meet the borrowing requirements, Ontario will continue to be flexible, monitoring domestic and international markets, issuing bonds in different terms and currencies, and responding to investor preferences. Diversification of borrowing sources will continue to be a primary objective in 2010–11. Depending on market conditions, the Province plans to borrow at least 50 per cent in the domestic market.

For fiscal years 2009–10 to 2011–12, the Province’s total funding requirement has declined by a cumulative $8.7 billion from the forecasts included in the Fall 2009 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. This decrease is primarily due to lower-than-forecast deficits in these years.

The government will seek approval from the legislature for borrowing authority to meet the Province’s requirements.

Debt

Total debt, which represents all borrowing without offsetting financial assets, is projected to be $212.4 billion as at March 31, 2010, compared to $176.9 billion as at March 31, 2009.

Ontario’s net debt is the difference between total liabilities and total financial assets. Starting in 2009–10, the broader public sector’s (BPS) net debt is included in the Province’s net debt because of the adoption of a revised presentation of BPS revenues, expenses, assets and liabilities in the Province’s consolidated financial reports. Broader public-sector organizations include hospitals, school boards and colleges. To be consistent with the presentation used in 2009–10, net debt has been restated for prior years to 2005–06.

Until 2009–10, the Province’s net debt excluded net debt of hospitals, school boards and colleges, which was previously included in the Province’s net assets of BPS organizations in the Province’s consolidated financial statements (see the Addendum to the 2010 Ontario Budget: Ontario’s Plan to Enhance Accountability, Transparency and Financial Management for further details on changes in the Province’s financial presentation of BPS organizations). This change does not impact the Province’s annual surplus/deficit results or accumulated deficit.

Ontario’s net debt is projected to be $193.2 billion as at March 31, 2010. This figure includes BPS net debt of $11.6 billion. As at March 31, 2009, net debt was $165.9 billion, including $10.6 billion related to the BPS.

Interim 2009–10 results for the Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation (OEFC) show a projected excess of revenue over expense of about $1.4 billion, reducing the Corporation’s unfunded liability (or “stranded debt of the electricity sector”) from $16.2 billion as at March 31, 2009 to $14.8 billion as at March 31, 2010. Projected 2010–11 OEFC results are an excess of revenue over expense of about $1.0 billion, which would reduce the unfunded liability to $13.8 billion as at March 31, 2011.

Total Debt Composition

Total debt consists of bonds issued in the public capital markets, non-public debt, treasury bills and U.S. commercial paper.

Public debt totals $195.4 billion, primarily consisting of bonds issued in the domestic and international long-term public markets in 10 currencies. Ontario also has $17.0 billion outstanding in non-public debt issued in Canadian dollars. Non-public debt consists of debt instruments issued to public-sector pension funds in Ontario and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB). This debt is not marketable and cannot be traded.

Chart 2: Pie Chart: Total Debt Composition

Debt-to-GDP Ratios

The Province’s debt-to-GDP ratios are expected to increase due to the projected deficits. The ratios stabilize and begin to decline during the period of the recovery plan to balance the budget.

This year, because of changes to the Province’s financial presentation of BPS organizations, the Province’s net debt-to-GDP ratio is shown with and without BPS net debt of hospitals, school boards and colleges for comparison purposes to 2013–14.

Going forward, only the Province’s net debt, including BPS net debt, will be illustrated.

Chart 3:	Line Graph: Net Debt-to-GDP
Chart 4: Line Graph: Accumulated Deficit-to-GDP

In 2008–09, the most recent year for which data are available for all provinces, Ontario’s net debt-to-GDP level was near the median for the provinces.

Chart 5: Bar Graph: Net Debt-to-GDP, Provincial Comparison

In 2009–10, Canada’s and Ontario’s net debt-to-GDP ratios were well below those of G7 countries.

Chart 6: Bar Graph: Net Debt-to-GDP, G7 Countries and Ontario

Cost of Debt

The effective interest rate (on a weighted-average basis) on total debt is estimated to be 4.57 per cent as at March 31, 2010 (March 31, 2009, 5.17 per cent). For comparison, as at March 31, 1993, the effective interest rate on total debt was 10.14 per cent. The effective interest rate on public debt is estimated to be 4.32 per cent as at March 31, 2010 (March 31, 2009, 4.83 per cent).

The effective interest rate on non-public debt is estimated to be 7.38 per cent as at March 31, 2010 (March 31, 2009, 8.05 per cent).

For 2010–11, the impact of a one per cent increase in interest rates would be an estimated additional $480 million in interest cost for the Province.

Chart 7: Line Graph: Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) on Total Debt

Risk Exposure

The Province limits itself to a maximum net interest-rate resetting exposure of 35 per cent of debt issued for Provincial purposes and a maximum foreign-exchange exposure of five per cent of debt issued for Provincial purposes. As at February 28, 2010, the net interest-rate resetting exposure was 11.1 per cent and foreign-exchange exposure was 0.1 per cent. All exposures remained well below policy limits in 2009–10.

Chart 8: Bar Graph: Net Interest Rate Resetting Exposure
Chart 9:	Bar Graph: Foreign Exchange Exposure
Table 3
Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit
Interim 2010
($ Millions)
  2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 Interim
2009–10
Plan
2010–11
Debt1            
Publicly Held Debt            
Bonds2 123,129 128,666 134,362 145,398 176,020 201,702
Treasury Bills 5,215 4,249 5,092 9,044 13,616 15,216
U.S. Commercial Paper2 706 254 644 2,006 3,471 3,471
Infrastructure Ontario (IO)3 1,323 1,262 1,632 1,695 1,890 1,890
Other 387 68 296 294
  130,760 134,431 141,730 158,211 195,293 222,573
Non-Public Debt            
Canada Pension Plan Investment Board 10,233 10,233 10,233 10,233 10,233 10,233
Ontario Teachers' Pension Fund 7,596 6,411 4,466 3,001 1,765 1,205
Public Service Pension Fund 2,705 2,502 2,260 1,991 1,713 1,403
Ontario Public Service Employees' Union Pension Fund (OPSEU) 1,285 1,188 1,074 946 814 667
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 960 914 863 811 755 696
Other4 1,367 1,314 1,430 1,632 1,702 1,541
  24,146 22,562 20,326 18,614 16,982 15,745
  154,906 156,993 162,056 176,825 212,275 238,318
Unrealized Foreign Exchange Gains 426 318 161 90 112 94
Total Debt 155,332 157,311 162,217 176,915 212,387 238,412
Cash and Temporary Investments5 (7,426) (6,622) (8,144) (11,878) (17,492) (13,848)
Total Debt Net of Cash and Temporary Investments 147,906 150,689 154,073 165,037 194,895 224,564
Other Net (Assets)/Liabilities5 (5,852) (8,581) (10,365) (9,735) (13,223) (15,484)
Broader Public Sector (BPS) Net Debt6 7,874 8,510 9,480 10,562 11,554 10,911
Net Debt7 149,928 150,618 153,188 165,864 193,226 219,991
Non-Financial Assets8 (40,773) (43,842) (47,571) (52,626) (58,658) (65,733)
Accumulated Deficit 109,155 106,776 105,617 113,238 134,568 154,258
  • 1 Includes debt issued by the Province and Government Organizations, including the OEFC.
  • 2 All balances are expressed in Canadian dollars. The balances above reflect the effect of related derivative contracts.
  • 3 Infrastructure Ontario's (IO) interim 2009–10 debt is composed of Infrastructure Renewal Bonds ($1,250 million) and short-term commercial paper ($640 million). IO's debt is not guaranteed by the Province.
  • 4 Other non-public debt includes Ontario Immigrant Investor Corporation, Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement Fund, College of Applied Arts and Technology Pension Plan, Ryerson Retirement Pension Plan and indirect debt of school boards (the indirect debt of school boards was incurred in June 2003 to permanently refinance the debt of 55 school boards).
  • 5 Other Net (Assets)/Liabilities include accounts receivable, loans receivable, advances and investments in government business enterprises, accounts payable, accrued liabilities, pensions and the liability for power purchase agreements with non-utility generators. Prior periods have been restated to reflect elimination of intercompany balances on consolidation of BPS starting in 2009–10.
  • 6 BPS Net Debt includes cash, temporary investments, accounts receivable, loans receivable, other long-term financing, loans payable, accounts payable, accrued liabilities, pensions and other employee future benefits and liability.
  • 7 Starting in 2009–10, net debt includes the net debt of hospitals, school boards and colleges (BPS) consistent with changes in accounting standards. For comparative purposes, net debt has been restated from 2005–06 to 2008–09 to conform with this revised presentation.
  • 8 Starting in fiscal year 2009–10, this line item now includes the tangible capital assets of BPS and is net of deferred capital contributions. Fiscal years 2005–06 to 2008–09 have been restated to conform with this presentation.
  • Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance.
Table 4
Debt Maturity Schedule
Interim 2010
($ Millions)
  Currency
  Canadian
Dollar
U.S.
Dollar
Japanese
Yen
Euro Other
Currencies1
Interim
2009–10
Total
2008–09
Total
Fiscal Year Payable
Year 1 26,924 6,832 252 34,008 25,382
Year 2 8,771 4,664 47 13,482 16,394
Year 3 7,255 9,564 550 17,369 13,742
Year 4 15,250 1,010 165 2,343 576 19,344 11,975
Year 5 11,832 9,142 59 717 21,750 16,938
1–5 years 70,032 31,212 224 2,343 2,142 105,953 84,431
6–10 years 23,201 5,483 96 5,288 2,794 36,862 27,101
11–15 years 12,142 12,142 11,097
16–20 years 15,602 15,602 16,658
21–25 years 9,626 9,626 8,816
26–45 years2 32,090 32,090 28,722
Unamortized Foreign Exchange Gains 71 (1) 44 (2) 112 90
Total3 162,693 36,766 319 7,675 4,934 212,387 176,915
Debt Issued for Provincial Purposes 139,195 34,285 319 7,496 3,713 185,008 149,247
OEFC Debt 23,498 2,481 179 1,221 27,379 27,668
Total 162,693 36,766 319 7,675 4,934 212,387 176,915
  • 1 Other currencies includes Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, U.K. sterling, Swiss franc, Hong Kong dollar and South African rand.
  • 2 The longest term to maturity is to June 2, 2054.
  • 3 Total foreign currency denominated debt (before unrealized foreign exchange gains) as at March 31, 2010, is projected to be $49.7 billion (2009, $31.5 billion). Of that, $49.2 billion or 99.0 per cent (2009, $31.2 billion or 99.1 per cent) was fully hedged to Canadian dollars.
Table 5
Medium-Term Outlook
Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit
($ Billions)
  2011–12 2012–13
Total Debt 265.1 289.3
Cash and Temporary Investments (13.8) (13.8)
Total Debt Net of Cash and Temporary Investments 251.3 275.6
Other Net (Assets)/Liabilities (17.6) (19.2)
Broader Public Sector (BPS) Net Debt 11.4 11.4
Net Debt 245.0 267.8
Non-Financial Assets (73.5) (80.3)
Accumulated Deficit 171.6 187.5
  • Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Table 6
Derivative Portfolio Notional Value
Interim 2010
($ Millions)
Maturity in
Fiscal
Year
2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 6–10
Years
Over 10
Years
Interim
2009–10
Total
2008–09
Total
Swaps:                  
Interest rate 9,472 10,763 12,491 6,596 24,112 22,772 6,274 92,480 74,207
Cross currency 5,877 3,992 10,396 6,068 7,602 15,692 49,627 31,847
Forward foreign exchange contracts 3,510 3,510 8,881
Caps and floors 88
Total 18,859 14,755 22,887 12,664 31,714 38,464 6,274 145,617 115,023

The table above presents the maturity schedule of the Province’s derivatives by type, interim as at March 31, 2010, based on the notional amounts of the contracts. Notional amounts represent the volume of outstanding derivative contracts and are not indicative of credit risk, market risk or actual cash flows. The Province uses derivatives to hedge and to minimize interest costs. Hedges are created primarily through swaps. Swaps allow the Province to offset existing obligations, effectively converting them into obligations with more desirable characteristics.