2006 Census-Based Population Estimates

Adjusted Population Estimates

Adjusted Population Estimates, Ontario
Year
(July 1)
2001
Census-
Based
2006
Census-
Based
Change Growth Rate*
(Old) (New) (Old) (New)
  Thousands Per Cent
1971 7,849 7,849 0 - -
1976 8,414 8,414 0 1.4 1.4
1981 8,811 8,812 1 0.9 0.9
1986 9,438 9,437 -0.8 1.4 1.4
1991 10,428 10,431 3.2 2 2
1996 11,083 11,083 -0.1 1.2 1.2
2001 11,898 11,897 -1 1.4 1.4
2002 12,102 12,091 -11 1.7 1.6
2003 12,263 12,242 -20.3 1.3 1.3
2004 12,420 12,391 -29.7 1.3 1.2
2005 12,565 12,528 -37 1.2 1.1
2006 12,705 12,665 -40 1.1 1.1
2007 12,804 12,794 -10.3 0.8 1
2008 NA 12,929 NA NA 1.1

* Average annual growth rate over previous year shown.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance

Population Estimates Now Based on the 2006 Census

  • On September 29, 2008, Statistics Canada released the first population estimates based on the 2006 Census adjusted for net undercoverage.
  • These population estimates incorporate upward adjustments to the 2006 Census counts to take into account the number of people missed or double-counted by the Census (net undercoverage).
  • The same Statistics Canada population release includes additional revisions to previously released population estimates as far back as 1971.

Estimates for Latest Years Revised Downwards

  • Estimated population growth over the 2001-2006 period was revised downward by an average of 7,800 annually, resulting in lower total population estimates throughout the period.
  • The 2006 Census-based population estimate for Ontario on July 2006 is 40,000 lower than previously estimated (2001 Census-based).
  • However, since estimated population growth during year 2006-07 was revised upward by almost 30,000, the revised total population estimate for July 2007 is only 10,000 lower.
  • The preliminary Ontario population estimate for 2008 is 12,928,996.
Adjusted Population Estimates
Canada, Provinces & Territories
Province/
Territory
July 1, 2007 July 1,
2008
2001
Census-
Based
2006
Census-
Based
Change
(Old) (New)
Thousands
Newfoundland & Labrador 506.3 506.5 0.2 507.9
Prince Edward Island 138.6 138.1 -0.5 139.8
Nova Scotia 934.1 936 1.9 938.3
New Brunswick 749.8 745.4 -4.4 747.3
Québec 7,700.80 7,686.00 -14.8 7,750.50
Ontario 12,803.90 12,793.60 -10.3 12,929.00
Manitoba 1,186.70 1,193.50 6.8 1,208.00
Saskatchewan 996.9 999.7 2.8 1,016.00
Alberta 3,474.00 3,510.90 36.9 3,585.10
British Columbia 4,380.30 4,310.30 -70 4,381.60
Yukon 31 32.6 1.6 33.1
North West Territories 42.6 43.5 0.9 43.3
Nunavut 31.1 31.3 0.1 31.4
Canada 32,976.00 32,927.40 -48.7 33,311.40

Source: Statistics Canada.

B.C. & Alberta See Largest Revisions

  • Quebec, Alberta and British Columbia saw larger revisions in population estimates for July 2007 compared to Ontario. Population was revised down almost 15,000 in Quebec, up almost 37,000 in Alberta, and down 70,000 in British Columbia.
  • Ontario’s share of Canada in 2007 remained virtually unchanged (revised from 38.83% to 38.85%).
  • The revisions did not change Ontario’s average growth rate between 2001 and 2007 of 1.2 per cent, the second highest among the provinces (Alberta was 2.3%).
  • For 2007-08, growth of 1.1 per cent estimated for Ontario was slower than all four western provinces and P.E.I. The 2007-08 population growth rate for Canada was 1.2 per cent.

Components of Population Growth

Components of Population Growth
Components 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
Start Population (July 1) 12,528,480 12,665,346 12,793,572
Natural Increase 50,023 49,844 47,537
Births 133,775 135,753 136,217
Deaths 83,752 85,909 88,680
Net International Migration 113,104 98,429 104,409
Immigration 133,062 115,446 114,981
Total Emigration 19,567 18,629 20,507
Emigration 21,029 19,657 21,818
Returning Emigrants 10,803 10,370 10,651
Temporarily Abroad 9,341 9,342 9,340
Net Non-Perm. Res. -391 1,612 9,935
Net Interprov. Migration -17,501 -20,047 -16,522
Interprov. In-Migration 55,748 58,791 78,700
Interprov. Out-Migration 73,249 78,838 95,222
Net Migration 95,603 78,382 87,887
Population Growth 136,866 128,226 135,424
End Population (July 1) 12,665,346 12,793,572 12,928,996

Natural Increase

  • Close to one-third of net population growth in Ontario came from natural increase (birth minus deaths) between 2001 and 2006.
  • There were 658,000 births and 418,000 deaths over the five-year period, for a total natural increase of 240,000 people. Both the number of births and deaths are increasing, while natural increase remains roughly stable just below 50,000 annually.
  • Births are rising due to a slight increase in the Total Fertility Rate observed since the historical low of 2002. Similarly, population aging means a greater number of seniors and therefore an increasing number of deaths (even as life expectancy rises).

International Migration

  • International migration is by far the largest contributor to population growth in Ontario. Over the 2001-06 period, 653,000 immigrants settled in the province, 90,000 people emigrated, and the number of non-permanent residents increased by 43,000, for a total net international migration gain of 607,000.
  • While annual emigration levels have been roughly stable since 2001, annual immigration ranged from 153,000 in 2001-02 (a record setting year) to 110,000 in 2002-03. About 115,000 immigrants settled in Ontario during each of the two most recent years.
  • Contribution to Population Growth
  • The share of Canada’s immigrants settling in Ontario has fallen from 59.6 per cent in 2001-02 to  46.1 per cent in 2007-08.
  • The annual change in the number of non-permanent residents (NPRs) in Ontario is volatile and subject to frequent revisions. Over the long-term, the number of NPRs in Ontario has been increasing.

Interprovincial Migration

  • Interprovincial migration is a cyclical component of population growth. Over the 2001-06 period, Ontario saw a net interprovincial migration loss of close to 30,000. Net losses were also observed in 2006-07 (-20,000) and 2007-08 (-16,500). Most of the net losses in recent years were with Alberta.
  • Recent net losses were mostly the result of rapidly increasing interprovincial out-flows, while in-flows increased as well, but to a lesser extent.

Reference Tables

Components of Population Growth, Ontario

Year Population Beginning of Period Births Deaths Natural Increase International Migration Interprovincial Migration Population Change
Immi-
grants
Total* Emigrants Net NPRs** Net Inter-
national
In-
Migrants
Out-
Migrants
Net Inter-
provincial
Thousands %
1996-97 11,083 136 80 56 119 27 -3 89 70 68 2 145 1.3
1997-98 11,228 133 80 53 106 26 -3 78 75 66 9 138 1.2
1998-99 11,366 131 80 51 92 24 6 74 73 56 17 139 1.2
1999-00 11,505 131 81 50 117 24 16 108 79 57 22 179 1.6
2000-01 11,683 128 81 47 150 23 24 151 75 56 19 213 1.8
2001-02 11,897 129 81 48 153 18 17 151 70 65 5 194 1.6
2002-03 12,091 129 83 46 110 17 22 115 64 64 1 151 1.3
2003-04 12,242 133 84 49 128 16 5 117 57 64 -7 148 1.2
2004-05 12,391 133 85 48 130 19 0 112 59 71 -11 138 1.1
2005-06 12,528 134 84 50 133 20 0 113 56 73 -18 137 1.1
2006-07 12,665 136 86 50 115 19 2 98 59 79 -20 128 1
2007-08 12,794 136 89 48 115 21 10 104 79 95 -17 135 1.1

* Total Emigrants = Emigrants plus Temporarily Abroad minus Returning Emigrants.
** Non-Permanent Residents.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance

Population Estimates for Canada, Provinces & Territories

Year (July 1) Canada N.L. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. QC ON Man. Sask. AB B.C. YK N.W.T. NVT
Thousands
1996 29,610 560 136 931 752 7,247 11,083 1,134 1,019 2,775 3,874 31 42 26
1997 29,906 551 136 932 753 7,275 11,228 1,136 1,018 2,830 3,949 32 42 26
1998 30,155 540 136 932 751 7,296 11,366 1,137 1,017 2,899 3,983 31 41 26
1999 30,401 533 136 934 751 7,323 11,505 1,142 1,015 2,953 4,011 31 41 27
2000 30,686 528 136 934 751 7,357 11,683 1,147 1,008 3,004 4,039 30 40 27
2001 31,019 522 137 932 750 7,396 11,897 1,151 1,000 3,058 4,076 30 41 28
2002 31,354 520 137 935 749 7,441 12,091 1,157 997 3,128 4,098 30 42 29
2003 31,640 519 137 937 749 7,486 12,242 1,164 996 3,183 4,122 31 43 29
2004 31,941 517 138 939 749 7,536 12,391 1,174 997 3,239 4,155 31 43 30
2005 32,245 514 138 938 748 7,582 12,528 1,178 994 3,322 4,197 32 43 30
2006 32,576 510 138 938 746 7,632 12,665 1,184 992 3,421 4,244 32 43 31
2007 32,927 506 138 936 745 7,686 12,794 1,194 1,000 3,511 4,310 33 44 31
2008 33,311 508 140 938 747 7,751 12,929 1,208 1,016 3,585 4,382 33 43 31

Sources: Statistics Canada

For more information, contact Alex Munger (416-325-0102).

Office of Economic Policy Labour and
Demographic Analysis Branch

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