2006 Census-Based Population Estimates

Adjusted Population Estimates

Population Estimates Now Based on the 2006 Census

• On September 29, 2008, Statistics Canada released the first population estimates based on the 2006 Census adjusted for net undercoverage.
• These population estimates incorporate upward adjustments to the 2006 Census counts to take into account the number of people missed or double-counted by the Census (net undercoverage).
• The same Statistics Canada population release includes additional revisions to previously released population estimates as far back as 1971.

Estimates for Latest Years Revised Downwards

• Estimated population growth over the 2001-2006 period was revised downward by an average of 7,800 annually, resulting in lower total population estimates throughout the period.
• The 2006 Census-based population estimate for Ontario on July 2006 is 40,000 lower than previously estimated (2001 Census-based).
• However, since estimated population growth during year 2006-07 was revised upward by almost 30,000, the revised total population estimate for July 2007 is only 10,000 lower.
• The preliminary Ontario population estimate for 2008 is 12,928,996.

B.C. & Alberta See Largest Revisions

• Quebec, Alberta and British Columbia saw larger revisions in population estimates for July 2007 compared to Ontario. Population was revised down almost 15,000 in Quebec, up almost 37,000 in Alberta, and down 70,000 in British Columbia.
• Ontario’s share of Canada in 2007 remained virtually unchanged (revised from 38.83% to 38.85%).
• The revisions did not change Ontario’s average growth rate between 2001 and 2007 of 1.2 per cent, the second highest among the provinces (Alberta was 2.3%).
• For 2007-08, growth of 1.1 per cent estimated for Ontario was slower than all four western provinces and P.E.I. The 2007-08 population growth rate for Canada was 1.2 per cent.

Components of Population Growth

Natural Increase

• Close to one-third of net population growth in Ontario came from natural increase (birth minus deaths) between 2001 and 2006.
• There were 658,000 births and 418,000 deaths over the five-year period, for a total natural increase of 240,000 people. Both the number of births and deaths are increasing, while natural increase remains roughly stable just below 50,000 annually.
• Births are rising due to a slight increase in the Total Fertility Rate observed since the historical low of 2002. Similarly, population aging means a greater number of seniors and therefore an increasing number of deaths (even as life expectancy rises).

International Migration

• International migration is by far the largest contributor to population growth in Ontario. Over the 2001-06 period, 653,000 immigrants settled in the province, 90,000 people emigrated, and the number of non-permanent residents increased by 43,000, for a total net international migration gain of 607,000.
• While annual emigration levels have been roughly stable since 2001, annual immigration ranged from 153,000 in 2001-02 (a record setting year) to 110,000 in 2002-03. About 115,000 immigrants settled in Ontario during each of the two most recent years.

• The share of Canada’s immigrants settling in Ontario has fallen from 59.6 per cent in 2001-02 to  46.1 per cent in 2007-08.
• The annual change in the number of non-permanent residents (NPRs) in Ontario is volatile and subject to frequent revisions. Over the long-term, the number of NPRs in Ontario has been increasing.

Interprovincial Migration

• Interprovincial migration is a cyclical component of population growth. Over the 2001-06 period, Ontario saw a net interprovincial migration loss of close to 30,000. Net losses were also observed in 2006-07 (-20,000) and 2007-08 (-16,500). Most of the net losses in recent years were with Alberta.
• Recent net losses were mostly the result of rapidly increasing interprovincial out-flows, while in-flows increased as well, but to a lesser extent.

Reference Tables

Components of Population Growth, Ontario

Year	Population Beginning of Period	Births	Deaths	Natural Increase	International Migration				Interprovincial Migration			Population Change
					Immi- grants	Total* Emigrants	Net NPRs**	Net Inter- national	In- Migrants	Out- Migrants	Net Inter- provincial
	Thousands												%
1996-97	11,083	136	80	56	119	27	-3	89	70	68	2	145	1.3
1997-98	11,228	133	80	53	106	26	-3	78	75	66	9	138	1.2
1998-99	11,366	131	80	51	92	24	6	74	73	56	17	139	1.2
1999-00	11,505	131	81	50	117	24	16	108	79	57	22	179	1.6
2000-01	11,683	128	81	47	150	23	24	151	75	56	19	213	1.8
2001-02	11,897	129	81	48	153	18	17	151	70	65	5	194	1.6
2002-03	12,091	129	83	46	110	17	22	115	64	64	1	151	1.3
2003-04	12,242	133	84	49	128	16	5	117	57	64	-7	148	1.2
2004-05	12,391	133	85	48	130	19	0	112	59	71	-11	138	1.1
2005-06	12,528	134	84	50	133	20	0	113	56	73	-18	137	1.1
2006-07	12,665	136	86	50	115	19	2	98	59	79	-20	128	1
2007-08	12,794	136	89	48	115	21	10	104	79	95	-17	135	1.1

* Total Emigrants = Emigrants plus Temporarily Abroad minus Returning Emigrants.
** Non-Permanent Residents.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance

Population Estimates for Canada, Provinces & Territories

Year (July 1)	Canada	N.L.	P.E.I.	N.S.	N.B.	QC	ON	Man.	Sask.	AB	B.C.	YK	N.W.T.	NVT
	Thousands
1996	29,610	560	136	931	752	7,247	11,083	1,134	1,019	2,775	3,874	31	42	26
1997	29,906	551	136	932	753	7,275	11,228	1,136	1,018	2,830	3,949	32	42	26
1998	30,155	540	136	932	751	7,296	11,366	1,137	1,017	2,899	3,983	31	41	26
1999	30,401	533	136	934	751	7,323	11,505	1,142	1,015	2,953	4,011	31	41	27
2000	30,686	528	136	934	751	7,357	11,683	1,147	1,008	3,004	4,039	30	40	27
2001	31,019	522	137	932	750	7,396	11,897	1,151	1,000	3,058	4,076	30	41	28
2002	31,354	520	137	935	749	7,441	12,091	1,157	997	3,128	4,098	30	42	29
2003	31,640	519	137	937	749	7,486	12,242	1,164	996	3,183	4,122	31	43	29
2004	31,941	517	138	939	749	7,536	12,391	1,174	997	3,239	4,155	31	43	30
2005	32,245	514	138	938	748	7,582	12,528	1,178	994	3,322	4,197	32	43	30
2006	32,576	510	138	938	746	7,632	12,665	1,184	992	3,421	4,244	32	43	31
2007	32,927	506	138	936	745	7,686	12,794	1,194	1,000	3,511	4,310	33	44	31
2008	33,311	508	140	938	747	7,751	12,929	1,208	1,016	3,585	4,382	33	43	31

Sources: Statistics Canada

Office of Economic Policy Labour and
Demographic Analysis Branch