New Age and Sex Estimates
- After every Census, raw population counts are adjusted for net undercoverage. As well, revisions are made to past years based on new information and changes in methodology. This means that the 2006-based series has replaced all previous population data.
- On January 15, 2009, Statistics Canada released the first breakdown of adjusted population estimates by age and sex based on the 2006 Census, as well as revisions to past estimates as far back as 1971. Latest estimates are for July 1st, 2008, when Ontario’s population was 12,928,996
Median Age Revised Upward
- Revisions resulted in a slightly older population for 2007 than previously estimated. Median age was revised from 38.5 to 38.7 years.
Revision Results in Fewer Young Adults, More Teenagers
- The revision affected the age groups below age 40 more significantly. Most age cohorts above age 40 saw upward revisions of generally less than two per cent.
- The specific age groups that gained the most from the revision of population estimates for 2007 were young children aged 0-5 (+2.9%), and teenagers and younger adults aged 16-22 (+2.3%).
- Losing the most from the revision were children aged 6-12 (-2.7%) and young adults aged 27-39 (-2.3%).
Broad Age Groups Practically Unchanged
- While specific age cohorts of children saw significant revisions, the total number of children aged 0-14 in Ontario remained roughly the same after the revision for 2007 (-6,000 or -0.3%).
- The size of the working-age group (15-64) in 2007 was practically unchanged as well (-14,000 or -0.2%).
- The number of seniors 65+ was revised upward by 10,000 or 0.6% in 2007.
Total Number of Females Revised Downward
- On July 1st, 2008 there were 6.55 million females and 6.38 million males in Ontario. Females represented 50.7% of the population and males 49.3%. After the revision of 2007 estimates, the number of males remained roughly the same, while the number of females decreased by 9,500 or 0.1%.
Age Structure Trends in Ontario
Median Age Keeps Rising
- On July 1st, 2008, the median age in Ontario was 39.0 years, up 3.2 years over the past decade. From 1998 to 2008, the median age of males increased 3.1 years to 38.1, and the female median age rose 3.2 years to 39.8.
Fewer Young Kids; More Teenagers and Youths
- Over the last 10 years, as the large cohorts of the echo generation (children of boomers) aged from children to teenagers, the number of teens and young adults aged 10-29 rose 388,000 or 13%.
- Conversely, the number of younger kids aged 0-9 declined 98,000 or 6%, as the echo generation moved up the age structure and the fertility rate remained low.
- Overall, the number of children age 0-14 fell by 62,000 or 2.8% over the past decade, and their share of the population fell from 20.1% to 17.2%.
Working Age Group Becoming Older
- Ontario’s population defined as “working-age” (15-64) grew 1,293,000 or 17% between 1998 and 2008. As the baby boom generation cohorts moved up the age structure within this group, the number of people aged 30 to 40 declined 166,000 or 8% while the number of people aged 41 to 64 rose 1,107,000 or 34%.
- The median age of Ontario’s working-age population rose from 37.9 years to 40.2 years over the period.
- Baby boomers were aged 43 to 62 in 2008. They accounted for 41% of the working-age population in Ontario and 29% of the total population of the province
Number of Seniors Keeps Growing
- There were 1,744,000 seniors aged 65+ in Ontario in 2008, an increase of 332,000 or 23% since 1998.
- The share of female seniors declined slightly, from 57.3% to 56.2% over the past 10 years, as male life expectancy increased more rapidly than that of females.
- Within the seniors group, 830,000 people were aged 75+ in 2008 and 221,000 were aged 85+.
Dependency Ratio Still Falling
- Despite the general aging of the population, the demographic dependency ratio (ratio of the population aged 0-19 and 65+ to population aged 20-64) fell from 0.64 in 1998 to 0.60 in 2008. This is because population aged 20-64 is growing faster than the “dependent” groups
Age Structure Trends in Canada
Territories, Prairies Have Younger Populations
- On July 1st, 2008, the median age of the Canadian population was 39.4 years, up 3.4 years from 36.0 a decade earlier (1998). The Atlantic provinces, Québec and B.C. had median ages higher than the national average. The territories and prairie provinces had populations with median ages lower than average.
- Newfoundland and Labrador was the oldest province (median age of 42.5 years), and Alberta was the youngest (35.7 years). Nunavut’s median age (23.8 years) was the lowest among the territories.
Declining Number of Children
- Children aged 0-14 represented 16.8% of the Canadian population in 2008, down from 19.8% in 1998. In 2008, there were 5.6M children in the country, down 6.1% from 6.0M in 1998.
- All provinces experienced the decline in number of children 0-14 over the last decade, with the exception of Alberta (+3.6%). Ontario saw the smallest decline (-2.7%), Newfoundland and Labrador the largest (-23.9%).
Working-Age Group Growing
- The working-age population (15-64) grew 13.1% or 2.7M nationwide over the last 10 years to reach 23.2M in 2008. This age group’s share of the Canadian population rose from 67.9% to 69.5% over the past decade.
- Alberta currently has the highest proportion of population in the working-age group (71.3%) among provinces, while Saskatchewan has the lowest (66.1%). Ontario has a slightly lower share than the national average.
Almost 4.6 Million Seniors in Canada
- Canada’s senior population (65+) reached almost 4.6M in 2008, and now accounts for 13.7% of the total population. This age group grew 22.5% or 839,000 over the past 10 years. Ontario’s share of seniors (13.5%) is slightly lower than the national average and is the second lowest among provinces after Alberta (10.4%).
- Saskatchewan saw the slowest increase in the number of seniors among the provinces during the period (+2.1%), while Alberta saw the fastest (+30.6%).
- The senior population in the territories is rising faster than in any province. However, the share of population that they represent (5.1% for the three territories combined) remains well below the national average.
2008 Age Structure, Level and Share by Age Group
|
0-14 |
15-24 |
25-44 |
45-54 |
55-64 |
65+ |
||||||
# |
% |
# |
% |
# |
% |
# |
% |
# |
% |
# |
% |
|
Canada |
5,597,664 |
16.8 |
4,540,053 |
13.6 |
9,376,278 |
28.1 |
5,275,286 |
15.8 |
3,958,989 |
11.9 |
4,563,119 |
13.7 |
Newfoundland & L. |
76,279 |
15.0 |
63,987 |
12.6 |
134,801 |
26.5 |
85,348 |
16.8 |
74,212 |
14.6 |
73,268 |
14.4 |
P.E.I. |
23,400 |
16.7 |
19,490 |
13.9 |
34,935 |
25.0 |
22,124 |
15.8 |
18,739 |
13.4 |
21,130 |
15.1 |
Nova Scotia |
142,748 |
15.2 |
124,459 |
13.3 |
244,642 |
26.1 |
155,353 |
16.6 |
126,662 |
13.5 |
144,446 |
15.4 |
New Brunswick |
115,773 |
15.5 |
95,294 |
12.8 |
198,008 |
26.5 |
122,572 |
16.4 |
102,056 |
13.7 |
113,599 |
15.2 |
Québec |
1,232,189 |
15.9 |
987,525 |
12.7 |
2,138,916 |
27.6 |
1,265,321 |
16.3 |
993,901 |
12.8 |
1,132,652 |
14.6 |
Ontario |
2,218,816 |
17.2 |
1,781,750 |
13.8 |
3,693,564 |
28.6 |
2,017,988 |
15.6 |
1,473,010 |
11.4 |
1,743,868 |
13.5 |
Manitoba |
229,179 |
19.0 |
174,264 |
14.4 |
320,236 |
26.5 |
181,543 |
15.0 |
136,282 |
11.3 |
166,455 |
13.8 |
Saskatchewan |
192,950 |
19.0 |
150,865 |
14.8 |
257,046 |
25.3 |
152,430 |
15.0 |
111,128 |
10.9 |
151,566 |
14.9 |
Alberta |
654,456 |
18.3 |
534,761 |
14.9 |
1,104,912 |
30.8 |
554,434 |
15.5 |
362,331 |
10.1 |
374,248 |
10.4 |
British Columbia |
686,159 |
15.7 |
589,689 |
13.5 |
1,216,260 |
27.8 |
702,258 |
16.0 |
550,870 |
12.6 |
636,367 |
14.5 |
2008 Level and Share of Selected Age Groups
|
0-3 |
4-17 |
0-17 |
18-24 |
15-64 |
75+ |
||||||
# |
% |
# |
% |
# |
% |
# |
% |
# |
% |
# |
% |
|
Canada |
1,435,270 |
4.3 |
5,495,774 |
16.5 |
6,931,044 |
20.8 |
3,206,673 |
9.6 |
23,150,606 |
69.5 |
2,156,421 |
6.5 |
Newfoundland & L. |
18,266 |
3.6 |
77,043 |
15.2 |
95,309 |
18.8 |
44,957 |
8.9 |
358,348 |
70.6 |
31,380 |
6.2 |
P.E.I. |
5,482 |
3.9 |
24,055 |
17.2 |
29,537 |
21.1 |
13,353 |
9.6 |
95,288 |
68.2 |
9,769 |
7.0 |
Nova Scotia |
34,240 |
3.6 |
145,248 |
15.5 |
179,488 |
19.1 |
87,719 |
9.3 |
651,116 |
69.4 |
66,956 |
7.1 |
New Brunswick |
27,981 |
3.7 |
116,666 |
15.6 |
144,647 |
19.4 |
66,420 |
8.9 |
517,930 |
69.3 |
53,202 |
7.1 |
Québec |
324,588 |
4.2 |
1,210,811 |
15.6 |
1,535,399 |
19.8 |
684,315 |
8.8 |
5,385,663 |
69.5 |
521,848 |
6.7 |
Ontario |
556,179 |
4.3 |
2,186,192 |
16.9 |
2,742,371 |
21.2 |
1,258,195 |
9.7 |
8,966,312 |
69.4 |
830,180 |
6.4 |
Manitoba |
58,338 |
4.8 |
223,763 |
18.5 |
282,101 |
23.4 |
121,342 |
10.0 |
812,325 |
67.2 |
84,730 |
7.0 |
Saskatchewan |
50,506 |
5.0 |
187,563 |
18.5 |
238,069 |
23.4 |
105,746 |
10.4 |
671,469 |
66.1 |
79,280 |
7.8 |
Alberta |
180,165 |
5.0 |
619,300 |
17.3 |
799,465 |
22.3 |
389,752 |
10.9 |
2,556,438 |
71.3 |
174,590 |
4.9 |
British Columbia |
172,535 |
3.9 |
680,779 |
15.5 |
853,314 |
19.5 |
422,534 |
9.6 |
3,059,077 |
69.8 |
302,610 |
6.9 |
Contact Alex Munger (416) 325-0102