: Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041

Spring 2016, Based on the 2011 Census
2015 – 2041 Ontario and Its 49 Census Divisions

General inquiries regarding the Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041 should be directed to:
Ministry of Finance Information Centre
Toll-free English and French inquires: 1-800-337-7222
Teletypewriter (TTY): 1-800-263-7776

Ce rapport est disponible en français sous le titre Mise à jour des projections démographiques pour l’Ontario, 2015–2041

© Queen’s Printer for Ontario, 2016
ISBN 978–1–4606–8072–8 (Print)
ISBN 978–1–4606–8074–2 (PDF)
ISBN 978–1–4606–8073–5 (HTML)

Table of Contents

Map of Ontario Census Divisions

I. Introduction

II. Highlights

III. Projections Results

Reference, low and high-growth scenarios
The components of Ontario population change
Age structure
Regional components of population change
Regional population growth
Regional age structure

IV. Methodology and Assumptions

Projections methodology
Base population
Fertility
Mortality
Immigration
Emigration
Non-permanent residents
Interprovincial migration
Intraprovincial migration

Glossary

Statistical Tables

Map of Ontario Census Divisions

Map of Ontario Census Divisions

I.  Introduction

This report presents population projections for Ontario and each of its 49 census divisions, by age and gender, from the new base year of 2015 to 2041. These projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance and are an update to the projections released in January 2015, based on the 2011 Census.

The Ministry of Finance produces an updated set of population projections every year to provide a demographic outlook reflecting the most up-to-date trends and historical data. This update is based on the new 2015 population estimates from Statistics Canada and includes minor changes to reflect the most recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration.

The new projections include three scenarios for Ontario. The medium, or reference scenario, is considered most likely to occur if recent trends continue. The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a reasonable forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth. Projections for each of the 49 census divisions are for the reference scenario only.

The projections do not represent Ontario government policy targets or desired population outcomes, nor do they incorporate explicit economic or planning assumptions. They are developed using a standard demographic methodology in which assumptions for population growth reflect recent trends in all streams of migration and the continuing evolution of long-term fertility and mortality patterns in each census division. Census division projections are summed to obtain the Ontario total.

The report includes a set of detailed statistical tables on the new projections. Key demographic terms are defined in a glossary.

II.  Highlights

Highlights of the new 2015–2041 projections are for the reference scenario:

  • Ontario’s population is projected to grow by 30.1 per cent, or almost 4.2 million, over the next 26 years, from an estimated 13.8 million on July 1, 2015 to more than 17.9 million by July 1, 2041.
  • The annual rate of growth of Ontario’s population is projected to decline gradually from 1.2 per cent to 0.8 per cent over the projection period.
  • Net migration is projected to account for 73 per cent of all population growth in the province over the 2015–2041 period, with natural increase accounting for the remaining 27 per cent. In the second half of the projections, the contribution of natural increase moderates as baby boomers increasingly reach senior years and the number of deaths increases more rapidly.
  • The number of seniors aged 65 and over is projected to more than double from 2.2 million, or 16.0 per cent of population, in 2015 to over 4.5 million, or 25.3 per cent, by 2041. The growth in the share and number of seniors accelerates over the 2015–2031 period as baby boomers turn age 65. After 2031, the growth in the number of seniors slows significantly.
  • The number of children aged 0–14 is projected to increase gradually over the projection period, from 2.2 million in 2015 to almost 2.7 million by 2041. The children’s share of population is projected to decrease gradually from 15.9 per cent in 2015 to 14.9 per cent by 2041.
  • The number of Ontarians aged 15–64 is projected to increase from 9.4 million in 2015 to 10.7 million by 2041. This age group is projected to decline as a share of total population, declining from 68.1 per cent in 2015 to 59.8 per cent by 2041. As baby boomers turn age 65, the growth in population aged 15–64 slows until 2027–28 and then accelerates over the remainder of the projection.
  • The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is projected to be the fastest growing region of the province, with its population increasing by over 2.8 million, or 42.9 per cent, to reach almost 9.5 million by 2041. The GTA’s share of provincial population is projected to rise from 48.0 per cent in 2015 to 52.7 per cent in 2041.
  • All regions see a shift to an older age structure. Regions where natural increase and net migration are projected to become or remain negative see the largest shifts in age structure. The GTA is expected to remain the region with the youngest age structure as a result of strong international migration and positive natural increase.

III.  Projection Results

Reference, low and high-growth scenarios

The Ministry of Finance projections provide three reasonable growth scenarios for the population of Ontario to 2041. The medium-growth or reference scenario is considered most likely to occur if recent trends continue. The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth. Population is projected for each of the 49 census divisions for the reference scenario only. Charts and tables in this report are for the reference scenario, unless otherwise stated.

Under all three scenarios, Ontario’s population is projected to experience moderate growth over the 2015–2041 period. In the reference scenario, population is projected to grow 30.1 per cent, or almost 4.2 million, over the next 26 years, from an estimated 13.8 million on July 1, 2015 to more than 17.9 million on July 1, 2041.

In the low-growth scenario, population increases 16.3 per cent, or 2.2 million, to reach over 16.0 million people by 2041. In the high-growth scenario, population grows 45.5 per cent, or 6.3 million, to 20.1 million people by the end of the projection period.

Line graph: Chart 1 - Ontario population, 1971 to 2041

Accessible description of Chart 1

The annual rate of growth of Ontario’s population in the reference scenario is projected to decline gradually from 1.2 per cent to 0.8 per cent over the projection period.

In the low-growth scenario, the annual rate of population growth is projected to decline from 0.9 per cent to 0.2 per cent over the projection period. In the high-growth scenario, the annual population growth rate is projected to decrease gradually from 1.5 per cent to 1.4 per cent between 2015 and 2041.

Bar graph and line graph: Chart 2 - Annual rate of population growth in Ontario, 1971 to 2041

Accessible description of Chart 2

The components of Ontario population change

In any given year, the contributions of natural increase and net migration to population growth vary. While natural increase trends evolve slowly, net migration can be more variable, mostly due to swings in interprovincial migration and variations in international immigration. For example, over the past 10 years, the share of population growth coming from net migration has been as high as 66 per cent in 2012–13 and as low as 51 per cent in 2006–07.

Net migration levels to Ontario have averaged about 77,000 per year in the past decade, with a low of 52,000 in 2006–07 and a high of 96,000 in 2011–12. The number of births and deaths has been rising slowly and at a similar pace. As a result, natural increase has been fairly stable at about 50,000 annually over the last decade.

Net migration is projected to be higher at the beginning of the projections than it has been during the past few years as net losses of population through interprovincial migration have recently turned to gains and federal immigration targets were raised by a significant amount. Ontario’s annual net migration gain is projected to increase over the projection period from 114,000 in 2015–16 to 130,000 by 2040–41. The share of population growth accounted for by net migration is projected to rise from 68 per cent to almost 89 per cent by 2041 as a result of lower natural increase.

Line graph: Chart 3 - Contribution of natural increase and net migration to Ontario's population growth, 1971-2041

Accessible description of Chart 3

Future levels of natural increase will be affected by two main factors over the projection period. First is the passage of the baby boom echo generation (children of baby boomers) through peak fertility years, which results in an increase in the number of births through the late 2010s and early 2020s. Births are projected to increase from 148,000 in 2015–16 to over 165,000 by the mid-2020s and remain above that level until the end of the projection period.

The second major factor influencing the future path of natural increase in Ontario is the transition of large cohorts of baby boomers into the senior age group. By 2031, all baby boomers will be 65 or older and the number of deaths starts to increase more rapidly. Over the first decade of the projections, the pace of increase in the annual number of deaths in Ontario is projected to slow as the small cohorts born during the 1930s reach their life expectancy. From 2015 to 2024, the annual number of deaths is projected to rise from 94,000 to 109,000. Over the remaining years to 2041, the annual number of deaths increases faster, to reach almost 153,000.

Overall, natural increase is projected to be fairly stable around 55,000 over the first decade of the projections, followed by a steady decline to less than 17,000 by 2040–41. The share of population growth accounted for by natural increase is projected to decline from 32 per cent in 2015–16 to 11 per cent by 2040–41.

Age structure

By 2041, there will be more people in every age group in Ontario compared to 2015, with a sharp increase in the number of seniors. Baby boomers will have swelled the ranks of seniors; children of the baby boom echo generation will be of school-age; and the baby boom echo cohorts, along with a new generation of immigrants, will have bolstered the population aged 15–64.

Line graph and bar graph: Chart 4 - Age Pyramid of Ontario's population, 2013 and 2041

Accessible description of Chart 4

The median age of Ontario’s population is projected to rise from 41 years in 2015 to 45 years in 2041. The median age for women climbs from 42 to 46 years over the projection period while for men it is projected to increase from 40 to 44 years.

The number of seniors aged 65 and over is projected to more than double from about 2.2 million, or 16.0 per cent of population in 2015, to over 4.5 million, or 25.3 per cent, by 2041. In 2015, for the first time, seniors accounted for a larger share of population than children aged 0–14.

By the early 2030s, once all baby boomers have reached age 65, the pace of increase in the number and share of seniors is projected to slow significantly. The annual growth rate of the senior age group is projected to slow from an average of 3.6 per cent over 2015–31 to 1.2 per cent by the end of the projection period. However, this age group will still be growing much faster than the 0–14 and 15–64 age groups.

The older age groups experience the fastest growth among seniors. The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to rise from 974,000 in 2015 to 2.7 million by 2041. The 90+ group almost quadruple in size, from 109,000 to 413,000.

The proportion of women among the oldest seniors is projected to remain higher than that of men but declines slightly as male life expectancy is projected to increase faster. In 2015, there were 41 per cent more women than men in the 75+ age group. By 2041, it is projected that there will be 18 per cent more women than men in the 75+ age group.

Line graph: Chart 5 - Proportion of population aged 0-14, 15-64 and 65+ in Ontario, 1971 to 2041

Accessible description of Chart 5

The number of children aged 0–14 is projected to increase gradually over the projection period, from 2.2 million in 2015 to almost 2.7 million by 2041. The share of children in the population is projected to decrease from 15.9 per cent in 2015 to 14.9 per cent by 2041. By the late 2030s, the number of children is projected to grow at a much slower pace than other age groups, reflecting the smaller number of women in their 20s and 30s.

The number of Ontarians aged 15–64 is projected to grow from 9.4 million in 2015 to 10.7 million by 2041, a slower pace of increase than the 0–14 and 65+ age groups. As a result, the 15–64 age group is projected to account for a decreasing share of total population, declining from 68.1 per cent in 2015 to 59.8 per cent by 2041.

The growth rate of the population aged 15–64 is projected to continue to trend lower until the mid-2020s. From an annual rate of growth of 0.7 per cent at the beginning of the projection, this age group is projected to grow by less than 0.2 per cent by the mid 2020s. By the late 2020s, as the children of the baby boom echo begin to reach age 15, the pace of annual growth of the 15–64 age group is projected to improve to 0.8 per cent by 2040–41.

Line graph: Chart 6 - Pace of growth of population age groups 0-14, 15-64 and 65+ in Ontario, 1971 to 2041

Accessible description of Chart 6

Within the 15–64 age group, the number of youth aged 15–24 is initially projected to decline slightly, from a high of 1,827,000 in 2015 to a low of 1,725,000 by 2022. The youth population is then projected to resume growing, reaching almost 2.1 million by 2041. The youth share of total population is projected to decline from 13.2 per cent in 2015 to 11.1 per cent by 2033, followed by a small rise to 11.5 per cent by 2041.

The number of people aged 25–44 is projected to increase during the projection period, from 3.7 million in 2015 to almost 4.3 million by 2041, while their share of population is projected to decline from 26.7 to 23.9 per cent.

The number of people aged 45–64 is projected to continue to increase at the beginning of the projections, from 3.9 million in 2015 to almost 4 million by 2021 before declining slightly during the 2020s. This age group resumes growth during the 2030s to reach almost 4.4 million by 2041. Its share of population is projected to decline gradually from 28.1 per cent in 2015 to 24.4 per cent by 2041.

Regional components of population change

The main demographic determinants of regional population growth are the current age structure of the population, the pace of natural increase, and the migratory movements in and out of each of Ontario’s regions. Demographic trends vary significantly among the 49 census divisions that comprise the six geographical regions of Ontario.

The current age structure of each region has a direct impact on projected regional births and deaths. A region with a higher share of its current population in older age groups will likely experience more deaths in the future than a region of comparable size with a younger population. Similarly, a region with a large share of young adults in its population is expected to see more births than a region of comparable size with an older age structure. Also, since migration rates vary by age, the age structure of a region or census division will have an impact on the migration of its population.

The general aging of the population will result in a rising number of census divisions where deaths will exceed births (negative natural increase) over the projection period. Deaths exceeded births in 24 of Ontario’s 49 census divisions over the past five years. This number is projected to rise gradually so that 37 census divisions are projected to experience negative natural increase by 2040–41. These 37 census divisions will represent 26 per cent of Ontario’s population in 2041.

This declining trend in natural increase means that many census divisions in Ontario where natural increase previously was the main or even sole contributor to population growth have already started to see their population growth slow. This trend is projected to continue as the population ages further.

Map: Chart 7 - Evolution of natural increase by census division, 2013 to 2041

Accessible description of Chart 7

Migration is the most important factor contributing to population growth for Ontario as a whole and for most regions. Net migration gains, whether from international sources, other parts of Canada or other regions of Ontario, are projected to continue to be the major source of population growth for almost all census divisions.

Large urban areas, especially the GTA, which receive most of the international migration to Ontario, are projected to grow strongly. For other regions such as Central Ontario, the continuation of migration gains from other parts of the province will be a key source of growth. Some census divisions of Northern Ontario receive only a small share of international migration and have been experiencing net out-migration, mostly among youth, which reduces both current and future population growth.

Regional population growth

The GTA is projected to be the fastest growing region of the province, accounting for over 68 per cent of Ontario’s net population growth to 2041. The GTA’s population is projected to increase from 6.6 million in 2015 to almost 9.5 million in 2041. The region’s share of total Ontario population is projected to rise from 48.0 per cent in 2015 to 52.7 per cent in 2041. It passes the 50 per cent mark in 2025.

Map: Chart 8 - Population of Ontario regions, 2013 and 2041

Accessible description of Chart 8

Within the GTA, Toronto’s population is projected to rise from 2.83 million in 2015 to 3.74 million in 2041, an increase of 32.4 per cent, slightly faster than the provincial growth rate. Growth in the other census divisions of the GTA (Durham, Halton, Peel and York) is projected to be significantly faster than the Ontario average, with the addition of over 1.9 million people to the suburban GTA. Peel alone is projected to see its population increase by 685,000 over 2015–41, a 47.6 per cent rise. Halton is projected to be the fastest-growing census division in Ontario over the projection period, with growth of 63.6 per cent to 2041.

Map: Chart 9 - Population growth/decline by census division over 2013-2041

Accessible description of Chart 9

The population of Central Ontario is projected to grow by 730,000 or 24.7 per cent, from 2.96 million in 2015 to 3.69 million in 2041. The region’s share of provincial population is projected to decline slightly from 21.4 to 20.5 per cent. Two census divisions located north of the GTA are projected to continue to experience population growth above the provincial average: Simcoe at 37.1 per cent and Dufferin at 33.6 per cent.

The population of Eastern Ontario is projected to grow 24.0 per cent over the projection period, from 1.80 million to 2.23 million. Ottawa is projected to grow fastest (37.7 per cent) from 957,000 in 2015 to 1.32 million in 2041. Most other Eastern Ontario census divisions are also projected to grow, but below the provincial average, with Frontenac and Prescott & Russell growing by 20.0 and 18.5 per cent respectively. The census division of Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry is projected to experience population decline over 2015–2041.

The population of Southwestern Ontario is projected to grow from 1.61 million in 2015 to 1.78 million in 2041, an increase of 10.8 per cent. Growth rates within Southwestern Ontario vary, with Middlesex and Oxford growing fastest (24.5 and 13.7 per cent respectively). The populations of Lambton, Huron and Chatham-Kent are projected to decline over the 2015–2041 period.

The population of Northern Ontario is projected to be relatively stable over the projection horizon, with a slight decrease of 2.2 per cent, from 798,000 in 2015 to 780,000 by 2041. Within the North, the Northeast is projected to see a population decline of 21,000 or 3.7 per cent, from 559,000 to 538,000. The Northwest is projected to experience slight population growth of 3,000 people, or 1.3 per cent, from 239,000 to 242,000.

In the past, Northern Ontario’s positive natural increase offset part of the losses it experienced through net migration. However, natural increase in the North as a whole is now negative.

Table A
Population Shares of Ontario Regions, 1991 to 2041
Share of Ontario
Population (%)
1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041
GTA 42.0 44.5 47.2 49.3 51.1 52.7
Central 22.2 22.1 21.6 21.2 20.8 20.5
East 13.9 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.7 12.4
Southwest 13.7 13.0 12.0 11.2 10.5 9.9
Northeast 5.8 4.8 4.3 3.8 3.3 3.0
Northwest 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3
Sources: Statistics Canada, 1991–2011, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.

Regional age structure

All regions see a shift to an older age structure. Regions where natural increase and net migration are projected to become or remain negative see the largest shifts in age structure.
The GTA is expected to remain the region with the youngest age structure, a result of strong international migration and positive natural increase. The Northeast is projected to remain the region with the oldest age structure.

In 2015, the share of seniors aged 65 and over in regional population ranged from a low of 14.1 per cent in the GTA to a high of 19.9 per cent in the Northeast. Among census divisions, it ranged from 12.2 per cent in Peel to 31.3 per cent in Haliburton.

By 2041, the share of seniors in regions is projected to range from 22.6 per cent in the GTA to 31.3 per cent in the Northeast. Among census divisions, it is projected to range from 21.8 per cent in Kenora to 44.9 per cent in Haliburton.

Map: Chart 10 - Share of seniors in population by census division in 2041

Accessible description of Chart 10

Even as the share of seniors in census divisions located in and around the suburban GTA is projected to remain lower than the provincial average, the increase in the number of seniors in this area will be the most significant. The number of seniors is projected grow by about 160 per cent in the suburban GTA. Conversely, the number of seniors grow most slowly (less than 40 per cent) in Algoma and Timiskaming.

Map: Chart 11 - Growth in numbers of seniors by census division, 2013 to 2041

Accessible description of Chart 11

The number of children aged 0–14 is projected to decline in the North, but to increase in the rest of Ontario over the projection period. However, by 2041 the share of children in every region is projected to be slightly lower than it is today. In 2015, the highest share of children among regions was in the Northwest at 16.9 per cent; the Northeast had the lowest share at 14.4 per cent. By 2041, the Northeast is projected to remain the region with the lowest share of children at 13.3 per cent while the highest share is projected to be found in the Northwest at 15.5 per cent.

The suburban GTA census divisions, along with Ottawa, are projected to record the highest growth in the number of children aged 0–14 over the 2015–2041 period, with Halton seeing the most growth at 49 per cent. Conversely, the majority of rural and northern census divisions are projected to have significantly fewer children by 2041, with the largest declines in the North. However, most census divisions are projected to see only a slight decrease in the share of children in their population. In 2015, the highest share of children was found in Kenora at 21.9 per cent and the lowest share in Haliburton at 9.9 per cent. By 2041, Kenora is projected to still have the highest share of children at 20.0 per cent while Haliburton is projected to continue to have the lowest at 9.1 per cent.

Map: Chart 12 - Growth/decline in numbers of children aged 0-14 by census division, 2013 to 2041

Accessible description of Chart 12

The share of population aged 15–64, which ranged from 65.7 per cent in the Northeast to 69.7 per cent in the GTA in 2015, is projected to decline over the 2015–2041 period in every region. The share of this age group is projected to range from 62.1 per cent of population in the GTA to 55.3 per cent in the Northeast by 2041.

While the share of population aged 15–64 is projected to fall in every census division of the province, the number of people in this age group is projected to increase in 14 of the 49 census divisions, mainly in the GTA, Central Ontario and urban areas of the East and the Southwest. The highest share of people aged 15–64 in 2015 was in Toronto (70.7 per cent) while the lowest was in Haliburton (58.8 per cent). By 2041, the highest shares is projected to be found in GTA census divisions and in both Waterloo and Ottawa, with Toronto the highest (64.3 per cent). Prince Edward, Haliburton, Northumberland, Kawartha Lakes, Manitoulin, Parry Sound and Huron are projected have shares of people aged 15–64 below 50 per cent by the end of the projection period.

IV. Methodology and Assumptions

Projections methodology

The methodology used in Ministry of Finance long-term population projections is the cohort-component method, essentially a demographic accounting system. The calculation starts with the base-year population (2015) distributed by age and sex.

A separate analysis and projection of each component of population growth is made for each year, starting with births. Then, projections of deaths and the five migration components (immigration, net emigration, net change in non-permanent residents, interprovincial in- and out-migration, and intraprovincial in- and out-migration) are also generated and added to the population cohorts to obtain the population of the subsequent year, by age and sex.

This methodology is followed for each of the 49 census divisions. The Ontario-level population is obtained by summing the projected census division populations.

It should be noted that the population projections are demographic, founded on assumptions about births, deaths and migration over the projection period. Assumptions are based on the analysis of the long-term and the most recent trends of these components, as well as expectations of future direction. For Ontario, the degree of uncertainty inherent in projections is represented by the range between the low- and high-growth scenarios, with the reference scenario representing the most likely outcome.

Base population

This report includes demographic projections released by the Ministry of Finance that use population estimates based on the 2011 Census adjusted for net undercoverage. Specifically, the projections use Statistics Canada’s preliminary July 1, 2015 postcensal population estimates as a base.

As well as providing a new starting point for total population by age and sex, updating the projections to a new base alters the projected age structure and population growth in each census division. It also has an impact on many components of population growth that are projected by using age-specific rates, such as births, deaths and several of the migration streams.

Fertility

The projected number of births for any given year is obtained by applying age-specific fertility rates to cohorts of women in the reproductive age group, ages 15 to 49. The projection model relies on four parameters1 to generate the annual number of births. The first of these parameters, the total fertility rate (TFR), reflects the level of fertility while the other three parameters (the mean age at maternity, the skewness and the variance of the distribution) reflect the timing, or age, at which women have their babies. All parameters used are calibrated to generate age-specific fertility rates that closely follow recent trends.

Assumptions are based on a careful analysis of past age-specific fertility trends in Ontario and a review of fertility trends elsewhere in Canada and in other countries. A general and common trend is that a growing proportion of women are postponing births to their 30s and early 40s.

The decline in the fertility rate among young women is accompanied by a rise in fertility rates among older women. Over the past 20 years, teenage girls and women in their early 20s have experienced the sharpest declines in fertility rates. Women in their late 20s had rapidly declining fertility rates over the 1990s and early 2000s, followed by a period of slower decline up to 2008. Recent data point toward a faster rate of decline over the 2008–11 period for this age group.

Fertility rates of women in their 30s and older, which were rising moderately over the 1990s and more rapidly over most of the 2000s, have shown a slower pace of increase in the most recent years. These are the same cohorts of women who postponed births during their 20s and are now having children in their 30s and early 40s.

Following about half a century of almost continuous decline, the total fertility rate in Ontario reached a low in 2002, at 1.48 children per woman. From the 2002 low, annual TFR values increased gradually, rising to 1.60 in 2008. Most recently, TFR has declined, reaching 1.55 in 2011 (latest available). This is less than half of the total fertility rate recorded during the 1960 peak of the Baby Boom when Ontario’s total fertility rate reached 3.8 children per woman with a record 159,000 births registered that year. By 1972, fertility fell below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.

Fertility rates are unlikely to return to the highs observed in the 1950s and early 1960s. Rather, it is believed that relatively small fluctuations around values below the replacement level are more likely.

In the reference scenario, the TFR is assumed to increase slightly from 1.57 to 1.60 children per woman by 2030 as younger women’s fertility rates stabilize while those of older women continue to gradually increase.

In the low-growth scenario, fertility is assumed to decline gradually until the TFR reaches 1.30 children per woman at the end of the projection period. In the high-growth scenario, the TFR increases gradually to 1.90 children per woman by the end of the period.

1Based on the Pearsonian approach. See Glossary.

Fertility assumptions at the census division level

The most recent data at the census division level (2011) shows that TFRs range from a high of 2.34 in Manitoulin to a low of 1.39 in Toronto. Trends in the evolution of the TFR in each census division over the past fifteen years show no convergence of TFRs by census division. For this reason, the projected parameters for fertility at the census division level are modelled to maintain the regional differences. The census division-to-province ratio for mean age at fertility in the most recent period is assumed to remain constant. The variance and skewness of fertility distributions at the census division level evolve over the projection period following the same absolute changes of these parameters at the Ontario level.

Line graphs: Chart 13 - Total fertility rate of Ontario women, 1979 to 2041

Accessible description of Chart 13

Mortality

The projected number of deaths each year is obtained by applying age-specific mortality rates to population cohorts in corresponding ages. Assumptions of future age-specific death rates are derived2 from trends observed over the 1971–2010 period related to the pace of improvement in overall life expectancy and the age patterns in mortality.

The province of Ontario has one of the highest levels of life expectancy in Canada and among the countries of the developed world. The current (2010) life expectancy at birth is 83.9 years for Ontario females and 79.8 years for Ontario males. Since 1994, average gains in life expectancy have been in the order of 0.18 years per annum for females and 0.28 years per annum for males.

Up to the mid-1990s, annual gains in life expectancy were getting somewhat smaller and it was expected that future improvements would continue at this slowing pace. However, over the past decade, annual gains in life expectancy have picked up and are rising in a more linear trajectory. Future gains in life expectancy concentrated at older ages and are smaller for infants.

In the reference scenario, life expectancy in Ontario is projected to continue increasing linearly over the first decade of the projection, followed by a gradual slowing in the rate of increase. By 2041, life expectancy is projected to reach 86.6 years for males and 88.7 years for females. This means total life expectancy gains of 6.8 years for males and 4.8 years for females between 2010 and 2041.

For low-and high-growth scenarios, assumptions of life expectancy at birth at the end of the projection period are first developed. For intervening years, life expectancy is assumed to increase linearly. The derived set of assumptions for the three scenarios for Ontario all reflect a continuation of the gains recorded in the average duration of life.

In the low-growth scenario, life expectancy increases at a slower pace, to 85.0 and 87.4 years for males and females respectively. In the high-growth scenario, life expectancy reaches 88.0 and 89.8 years for males and females respectively.

2 Following the Lee-Carter model. See Glossary.

Line graphs: Chart 14 - Life expectancy at birth by sex in Ontario, 1979 to 2041

Accessible description of Chart 14

Under the assumptions on mortality for each of the three scenarios, male life expectancy is expected to progress at a faster pace than female life expectancy. This is consistent with recent trends where males have recorded larger gains than females. Thus, the overall gap between males and females has gradually decreased, and is projected to continue to do so.

Table B
Life Expectancy in Ontario, 1981 to 2041
  1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041
Male - At birth 72.5 75.0 77.4 80.0 82.4 84.6 86.6
Male - At age 65 14.5 15.8 17.2 19.2 20.9 22.4 23.9
Female - At birth 79.3 80.8 82.1 84.1 85.7 87.3 88.7
Female - At age 65 19.0 19.7 20.4 22.0 23.2 24.4 25.5
Sources: Statistics Canada, 1981–2001, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.
Mortality assumptions at the census division level

At the census division level, the mortality assumptions were developed using a ratio methodology. The Ontario-level mortality structure was applied to each census division’s age structure over the most recent six years of comparable data and the expected number of deaths was computed. This was then compared to the actual annual number of deaths for each census division over this period to create ratios of actual-to-expected number of deaths. These ratios were then multiplied by provincial age-specific death rates to create death rates for each census division. These were then applied to the corresponding census division population to derive the number of deaths for each census division.

An analysis of the ratio of actual-to-expected deaths for each census division did not reveal a consistent pattern or movement toward a convergence or divergence among regions over time.
For this reason, the recent three-year average ratio for each census division was held constant over the projection period.

Components of net migration

The following sections discuss assumptions and methodology for the components of net migration, including immigration, emigration, non-permanent residents, interprovincial migration and intraprovincial migration.

Immigration

Immigration levels in Canada are determined by federal government policy. The federal Minister of Citizenship and Immigration sets the national target and target-range for the level of immigration to be achieved over the following year. For the calendar year 2016, the target is set at 300,000, with a target-range of 280,000 to 305,000 immigrants. This is a significant increase from 2015, when the range was 260,000 to 285,000.

Over the past 20 years, the target range has been increased gradually by successive federal governments. These increases to the immigration target helped maintain a relatively stable immigration rate to Canada of about 0.75 per cent of population each year.

Since 2007, federal immigration policy has changed, with a goal of spreading immigrants more evenly across the country primarily through the expansion of the provincial nominee program. As a result, Ontario’s share of total Canadian immigration has fallen from 48.5 per cent in 2006–07 to less than 39 per cent in 2011–12, and remaining relatively stable since.

In the reference scenario, the assumed long-term immigration rate is set at 0.8 per cent. This long-term immigration rate of 0.8 per cent is reached over a ten-year transition period to reflect the slightly higher rates projected at the beginning of the projections.

Line graphs: Chart 15 - Rate of immigration to Ontario, 1971 to 2041

Accessible description of Chart 15

Once the long-term immigration rate is reached, the number of immigrants increases over time as population grows. In the reference scenario, the annual immigration level is projected to increase from 114,000 in 2015–16 to 122,000 by 2024–25 to reach the long-term immigration rate assumption of 0.8 per cent of population. Over the rest of the projection period, the level of immigration is projected to increase gradually, in tandem with overall population growth, reaching 142,000 by 2040–41.

The long-term immigration rate is set at 0.6 per cent in the low-growth scenario, resulting in immigration levels rising slowly, from 100,000 in 2015–16 to 96,000 by 2040–41. In the high-growth scenario, the long-term rate of immigration is set at 1.0 per cent, resulting in immigration levels rising strongly, from 128,000 in 2015–16 to 198,000 by 2040–41.

Immigration assumptions at the census division level

Projected immigration shares for each census division are based on the trends observed in the distribution of immigrants by census division over the recent past. These shares evolve throughout the projection period following established trends. The average age-sex distribution pattern for immigrants observed over the past five years is assumed to remain constant over the entire projection period. Over 85 per cent of immigrants coming to Ontario are aged 0–44.

Bar graph and line graph: Chart 16 - Immigration to Ontario, 1971 to 2041

Accessible description of Chart 16

Emigration

Total emigration is defined as the gross flow of international emigration, minus returning emigrants, plus the net variation in the number of Ontarians temporarily abroad. The level of total emigration from Ontario averaged 16,100 over the past three years.

The number of emigrants is difficult to estimate with a high degree of accuracy because of incomplete information. Statistics Canada publishes annual estimates of these flows based on a variety of sources, such as administrative data files and immigration statistics published by agencies of foreign countries.

In the reference scenario, the average emigration rates by age and sex for each census division observed over the past five years are used to model the projected number of people emigrating annually from each census division. The modelling is dynamic, taking into account the annual changes in age structure within census divisions. For Ontario as a whole, this results in the number of emigrants increasing gradually over the projection period to reach 19,700 by 2040–41.

In the low-growth scenario, emigration rates by age and sex used in the reference scenario are increased by 30 per cent, making them 130 per cent of recently-observed rates. This results in emigration levels reaching 23,000 by 2040–41.

In the high-growth scenario, emigration rates by age and sex used in the reference scenario are reduced by 30 per cent, making them equivalent to 70 per cent of recently-observed rates. This results in the number of emigrants reaching 15,100 by 2040–41.

Bar graph and line graph: Chart 17 - Emigration from Ontario, 1971 to 2041

Accessible description of Chart 17

Emigration assumptions at the census division level

The projected number of people, by age and gender, emigrating from each census division for each year of the projections is modelled using the average emigration rates by age and gender for each census division observed over the past five years.

Non-permanent residents

Statistics Canada estimates that there were about 312,000 non-permanent residents (NPRs) living in Ontario in 2015 (e.g., foreign students, temporary workers, refugee claimants). These foreign residents are included in the base population as they are counted in the Census.

The year-to-year change in their total number must be accounted for as a component of population growth. Determining assumptions for this component is complicated by the significant annual fluctuations and the transient nature of this group.

Over the past 30 years, Ontario has gained on average 7,600 non-permanent residents annually. The reference scenario reflects long-terms trends in the annual change in the number of NPRs by setting the long-term yearly gain to 7,500. In the low- and high-growth scenarios, the long-term annual change in the stock of NPRs is set at 2,500 and 12,500 respectively. The long-term assumptions for each scenario are reached after a transition period of three years, moderating from the relatively high net gains observed recently.

Bar graph and line graph: Chart 18 - Annual change in the number of non-permanent residents living in Ontario, 1971 to 2041

Accessible description of Chart 18

Non-permanent resident assumptions at the census division level

Projected shares of non-permanent residents for each census division are based on the share held by each census division in 2015. The age-sex distribution of non-permanent residents is based on the average of the last five years. The distribution pattern is assumed to remain constant over the projection period.

Interprovincial migration

Interprovincial migration is a component of population growth that fluctuates significantly from year to year. Although Ontario remains a major province of attraction for migrants from some other provinces, trend analysis of the last three decades reveals a mixed pattern of several years of gains followed by several years of losses. This pattern is usually closely tied to economic cycles.

Over the past 30 years, net interprovincial migration has not contributed to Ontario’s population growth, with net losses averaging about 150 people per year. Since 2003, net interprovincial migration to Ontario has been negative, largely due to net outflows to Alberta. However, the most recent data shows a reversal of the out-migration trends to Western Canada to Ontario’s advantage.

In the reference scenario, annual net interprovincial migration for Ontario reflects recent trends in the short term. It is set at 5,000 for 2015–16, 7,500 for 2016–17, and gradually returning to long-term historical values by 2019–20 with a net of zero and then remaining at that level for the rest of the projection period.

Bar graph and line graph: Chart 19 - Net interprovincial migration in Ontario, 1971 to 2041

Accessible description of Chart 19

In the low-growth scenario, net interprovincial migration for Ontario is set at zero for 2015–16, 2,500 for 2016–17, and gradually falling to a net outflow of 5,000 from 2019–20 onwards. In the high-growth scenario, a net annual inflow of 10,000 people is assumed for 2015–16, 12,500 for 2016–17, followed by a gradual decrease to a net inflow of 5,000 annually starting in 2019–20.

The annual in-flows corresponding to the long-term net migration levels in the low-growth, reference and high-growth scenarios are 62,500, 65,000 and 67,500 respectively. The corresponding annual out-flows are 67,500, 65,000 and 62,500.

Interprovincial migration assumptions at the census division level

Each census division’s share of Ontario inflow and outflow of interprovincial migrants over the last five years is applied to projected flows for the province and held constant throughout the projection period.

Intraprovincial migration

At the census division level, intraprovincial migration, or the movement of population from one census division to another within the province, is a significant component of population growth. This component affects population growth only at the census division level.

The annual number of intraprovincial migrants in Ontario has fluctuated within the 350,000 to 430,000 range over the past 20 years. Over the projection period, the annual number of intraprovincial migrants increases gradually from 371,000 in 2015–16 to 426,000 in 2040–41. This increase over time reflects population growth and age structure changes at the census division level. In fact, even as the number of intraprovincial migrants is projected to increase, the resulting rate of intraprovincial migration in Ontario declines slightly over the projection period, from 2.69 per cent in 2015–16 to 2.39 per cent by 2040–41.

Intraprovincial migration assumptions at the census division level

The projected number of people, by age, leaving each census division for each year of the projections, as well as their destination within the province, is modelled using the origin-destination migration rates by age for each census division over the past five years. Because migration rates by age group are different for each census division and because different age groups have different origin-destination behaviours, the methodology provides a powerful tool to project movers based on observed age and origin-destination migration patterns. The modelling is dynamic, taking into account the annual changes in age structure within census divisions.

The evolution of intraprovincial migration patterns in each census division was studied to identify specific trends and the intraprovincial migration rate assumptions were adjusted to account for these trends.

Glossary

Baby boom generation

People born during the period following World War II, 1946 to 1965, marked by a          significant increase in fertility rates and in the number of births.

Baby boom echo generation
People born during the period 1972 to 1992. Children of baby boomers.
Cohort
Represents a group of persons who have experienced a specific demographic event during a given period, which can be a year. For example, the birth cohort of 1966 consists of the number of persons who were born in 1966.
GTA
The Greater Toronto Area, comprised of the census divisions of Toronto, Durham, Halton, Peel and York.
International migration
Movement of population between Ontario and a foreign country. International migration   includes immigrants, emigrants and non-permanent residents. Net international migration is the difference between the number of people entering and the number of people leaving the province from foreign countries.
Interprovincial migration
Movement of population between Ontario and the rest of Canada. Net interprovincial       migration is the difference between the number of people entering Ontario from the rest of Canada and the number of people leaving Ontario for elsewhere in Canada.
Intraprovincial migration
Movement of population between the 49 census divisions within Ontario. Net intraprovincial migration for a given census division is the difference between the number of people moving from the rest of Ontario to this census division and the number of people           leaving for elsewhere in the province.
Lee-Carter method
A method of mortality projection proposed by Lee and Carter used to generate annual age-sex specific mortality rates. See Lee, Ronald D., and Carter, Lawrence, 1992. “Modeling and Forecasting the Time Series of U.S. Mortality,” Journal of the American Statistical        Association 87, no 419 (September):659-71.
Life expectancy
A statistical measure derived from the average number of years of life remaining for a person at a specific age if that person would experience during his/her life the age-specific mortality rates observed in a given year.
Median age
The median age is the age at which exactly one half of the population is older and the other half is younger. This measure is often used to compare age structures between jurisdictions.
Natural increase
The number of births minus the number of deaths.
Net migration
Difference between the number of people entering and the number of people leaving a given area. This includes all the migration components included in net international migration, net interprovincial migration and net intraprovincial migration (for sub-provincial jurisdictions).
Non-permanent residents
Foreign citizens living in Ontario (e.g., foreign students, temporary workers or refugee claimants).
Pearsonian curve
Parametric model used to distribute estimated fertility rates by age of mothers. The Pearsonian curve has four parameters. The first of these parameters, the total fertility rate, reflects the level of fertility while the other three parameters (the mean age at fertility, the skewness and the variance of the distribution) reflect the timing, or age, at which women have their babies.
Population aging
In demographic terms, population aging refers to an increasing share of seniors (ages 65+) in the population.
Population estimates
Measures historical resident population using data from the most recent Census, in addition to administrative data on the components of demographic change (births, deaths and net migration) since the Census.
Total fertility rate
The sum of age-specific fertility rates during a given year. Indicates the average number of children that a generation of women would have if, over the course of their reproductive life, they had fertility rates identical to those of the year considered.

Statistical Tables

Table 1 Historical and projected population for Ontario under three scenarios, 2006–2041

Table 2 Ontario population and selected characteristics, 2006–2041 (reference, low and high scenarios)

Table 3 Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2006–2041 (reference, low and high scenarios)

Table 4 Historical and projected population by census division, selected years — reference scenario

Table 5 Historical and projected share of Ontario population by census division, selected years — reference scenario

Table 6 Ontario population by age, 2015–2041 — reference scenario

Table 7 Total, male and female population of Ontario by five-year age group, 2015–2041 — reference scenario

Table 8 Total, male and female population of Ontario by five-year age group,
2015–2041 — low scenario
 

Table 9 Total, male and female population of Ontario by five-year age group,
2015–2041 — high scenario

Table 10 Greater Toronto Area and its census divisions, population by five-year age group, 2015–2041 — reference scenario

Table 11 Central Ontario and its census divisions, population by five-year age group, 2015–2041 — reference scenario

Table 12 Eastern Ontario and its census divisions, population by five-year age group, 2015–2041 — reference scenario

Table 13 Southwestern Ontario and its census divisions, population by five-year age group, 2015–2041 — reference scenario

Table 14 Northeastern Ontario and its census divisions, population by five-year age group, 2015–2041 — reference scenario

Table 15 Northwestern Ontario and its census divisions, population by five-year age group, 2015–2041 — reference scenario

Chart Descriptions for
Ontario Population Projections Update, Spring 2016

Chart 1

This line chart shows the estimated total population of Ontario from 1971 to 2015, and the projection to 2041 for the three scenarios (reference, high and low). Over the historical period, Ontario’s population increased from 7.8 million in 1971 to 13.8 million in 2015. Over the projections period 2015-2041, the three scenarios gradually diverge. In the reference scenario, total population reaches 17.9 million in 2041. Ontario’s population reaches 20.1 million in the high scenario and 16.0 million in the low scenario at the end of the projection period.

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Chart 2

This chart shows historical annual growth rates of Ontario’s population as bars from 1971 to 2015, and projected growth rates as lines for the three scenarios (reference, high and low). Over the historical period, annual growth rates start at 1.4% in 1971-72, and then decline to reach 0.8% in 1980-81. This is followed by higher growth rates culminating at 2.7% in 1988-89, with a lower peak of 1.8% in 2000-01, and trending lower to reach 0.8% in 2014-15. The projected annual growth rate of Ontario’s population in the reference scenario is 1.2% at the beginning of the projection period, trending down to reach 0.8% in 2040-41. In the high scenario, annual population growth goes from 1.5% to 1.4% over the projection period. In the low scenario, population growth goes from 0.9% in 2015-16 to 0.2% in 2040-41.

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Chart 3

This area chart shows the annual contribution of natural increase and net migration to Ontario’s population growth from 1971 to 2041. Over the historical period, natural increase was more stable than net migration, starting at about 69,000 in 1971-72, with an intermediate high-point of 79,000 in 1990-91, and a declining trend to 44,000 by 2014-15. Over the projection period, natural increase is projected to be fairly stable around 55,000 over the first decade, followed by a steady decline to less than 17,000 by 2040-41. Net Migration was more volatile over the historical period, starting at about 45,000 in 1971-72, with a low point of 10,000 in 1978-79, peaks of 194,000 in 1988-89 and 167,000 in 2000-01, reaching 70,000 in 2014-15. Annual net migration is projected to increase over the projection period from 114,000 in 2015-16 to 130,000 by 2040-41.

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Chart 4

This population pyramid shows the number of people of each age in Ontario in 2015 and 2041 separately for males and females. In 2015, the pyramid starts at the bottom with about 70,000 each for males and females aged zero, and gradually widens to close to 100,000 people in their early 20s. This is followed by a slight narrowing of the pyramid to about 90,000 each for males and females at ages around 40, and a peak above 100,000 at early 50s ages. The pyramid subsequently narrows to only a few thousand people at ages 95+. The 2041 line starts at just above 80,000 each for both males and females at age zero with a fairly gradual increase to a peak of about 130,000 close to age 50, followed by a late peak of about 100,000 close to age 80.

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Chart 5

This chart has three lines showing the evolution of the share of Ontario’s population in age groups 0-14, 15-64 and 65+ over the 1971-2041 period. The highest proportion is aged 15-64 and is fairly stable over the historical period between 60% and 70%, with a declining trend starting around 2010. Over the projection period, the share of people aged 15-64 is projected to fall from 68.1% to 59.8%. The share of population aged 0-14 is seen falling gradually from 28.4% in 1971 to 15.9% in 2015, with a further decline to 14.9% by 2041. The share of seniors increases slowly from 8.3% in 1971 to 16.0% in 2015, and more rapidly over the projection period to reach 25.3% in 2041. The share of seniors surpasses that of children in 2015.

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Chart 6

This line chart shows the pace of annual growth of population age groups 0-14, 15-64 and 65+ in Ontario from 1971 to 2041. The 65+ age group grows faster than the other two groups for most of the historical and all of the projection period, with a peak of 4.5% in 2011-12 and a low close to one percent at the end of the projection period. The annual pace of growth of the 15-64 age group is seen trending gradually lower from 2.4% in 1971-72 to 0.2% by the mid-2020s, and then rising to 0.8% at the end of the projection period. The annual growth rate of the 0-14 age group is the most volatile, recoding declines from 1971 to 1982 with a trough of -2.3% in 1978-79, and then again from 2004 to 2014. The children group is projected to grow at about 1.0% annually until the late 2020s, with gradually slower growth reaching 0.2% by 2041.

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Chart 7

This map shows the evolution of natural increase by census division in Ontario over the projection period 2015-41. The census divisions are split in four categories.

Census divisions where natural increase is projected to be negative in both 2015-16 and 2040-41 include: Algoma, Sudbury, Timiskaming, Manitoulin, Parry Sound, Grey, Niagara, Muskoka, Haliburton, Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough, Northumberland, Hastings, Prince Edward, Lennox & Addington, Lanark, Leeds & Grenville, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry.

Census divisions where natural increase is projected to be positive in 2015-16, but negative by 2030-31 include: Rainy River, Thunder Bay, Cochrane, Greater Sudbury, Nipissing, Chatham-Kent, Lambton, Huron, Bruce, Perth, Haldimand-Norfolk, Renfrew, Prescott & Russell.

Census divisions where natural increase is projected to be positive in 2015-16, but negative by 2040-41 include: Essex, Elgin, Oxford, Brant, Simcoe, Frontenac.

Census divisions where natural increase is projected to be positive throughout 2015-2041 include: Kenora, Middlesex, Waterloo, Wellington, Hamilton, Dufferin, Halton, Peel, York, Toronto, Durham, Ottawa.

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Chart 8

This chart shows a map of Ontario’s 6 regions with bars showing their total populations in 2015 and 2041.

For 2015, the chart shows total population in millions for each of the regions as:

Northwest 0.2, Northeast 0.6, Southwest 1.6, Central 3.0, GTA 6.6, East 1.8.

For 2041, the chart shows total population in millions for each of the regions as:

Northwest 0.2, Northeast 0.5, Southwest 1.8, Central 3.7, GTA 9.5, East 2.2.

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Chart 9

This map shows the population growth or decline by census division in Ontario over the projection period 2015-41. The census divisions are split in four categories.

Census divisions where population is projected to decline include: Rainy River, Cochrane, Algoma, Sudbury, Timiskaming, Greater Sudbury, Chatham-Kent, Lambton, Huron, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry.

Census divisions where population is projection to grow between zero and 15% include: Kenora, Thunder Bay, Manitoulin, Parry Sound, Nipissing, Essex, Elgin, Bruce, Oxford, Perth, Grey, Haldimand-Norfolk, Niagara, Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough, Hastings, Prince Edward, Lennox & Addington, Renfrew, Lanark, Leeds & Grenville.

Census divisions where population is projected to increase between 15% and 40% include: Middlesex, Brant, Waterloo, Wellington, Hamilton, Dufferin, Simcoe, Muskoka, Haliburton, Northumberland, Toronto, Frontenac, Ottawa, Prescott & Russell.

Census divisions where population is projected to increase by over 40% include: Halton, Peel, York, Durham.

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Chart 10

This map shows the projected share of seniors in the population of Ontario census divisions in 2041. The census divisions are split in four categories.

Census divisions with less than 25% seniors in 2041 include: Kenora, Waterloo, Halton, Peel, York, Toronto, Durham, Ottawa.

Census divisions with between 25% and 30% seniors in 2041 include: Cochrane, Greater Sudbury, Nipissing, Essex, Middlesex, Elgin, Oxford, Brant, Hamilton, Wellington, Dufferin, Simcoe, Frontenac.

Census divisions with between 30% and 35% seniors in 2041 include: Rainy River, Thunder Bay, Algoma, Timiskaming, Chatham-Kent, Lambton, Perth, Bruce, Haldimand-Norfolk, Niagara, Peterborough, Hastings, Lennox & Addington, Renfrew, Prescott & Russell.

Census divisions with over 35% seniors in 2041 include: Manitoulin, Sudbury, Parry Sound, Huron, Grey, Muskoka, Haliburton, Kawartha Lakes, Northumberland, Prince Edward, Lanark, Leeds & Grenville, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry.

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Chart 11

This map shows the growth in number of seniors in the population of Ontario census divisions between 2015 and 2041. The census divisions are split in four categories.

Census divisions with less than 75% projected growth in number of seniors over 2015-2041 include: Kenora, Rainy River, Thunder Bay, Cochrane, Timiskaming, Algoma, Manitoulin, Sudbury, Greater Sudbury, Parry Sound, Nipissing, Chatham-Kent, Lambton, Huron, Bruce, Grey, Haldimand-Norfolk, Peterborough, Hastings, Prince Edward, Renfrew, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry.

Census divisions with between 75% and 100% projected growth in number of seniors over 2015-2041 include: Essex, Middlesex, Elgin, Oxford, Perth, Niagara, Hamilton, Toronto, Muskoka, Haliburton, Kawartha Lakes, Northumberland, Lennox & Addington, Frontenac, Lanark, Leeds & Grenville.

Census divisions with between 100% and 150% projected growth in number of seniors over 2015-2041 include: Brant, Waterloo, Wellington, Dufferin, Simcoe, Ottawa, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry.

Census divisions with over 150%projected growth in number of seniors over 2015-2041 include: Halton, Peel, York, Durham.

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Chart 12

This map shows the growth or decline in number of children aged 0-14 in the population of Ontario census divisions between 2015 and 2041. The census divisions are split in four categories.

Census divisions with a projected decline in number of children aged 0-14 over 2015-2041 include: Kenora, Rainy River, Thunder Bay, Cochrane, Timiskaming, Algoma, Sudbury, Manitoulin, Greater Sudbury, Parry Sound, Nipissing, Essex, Chatham-Kent, Lambton, Huron, Perth, Elgin, Haldimand-Norfolk, Hastings, Prince Edward, Lennox & Addington, Renfrew, Leeds & Grenville, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry.

Census divisions with between 0% and 10% projected growth in number of children aged 0-14 over 2015-2041 include: Bruce, Grey, Oxford, Niagara, Muskoka, Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough, Northumberland, Lanark, Prescott & Russell.

Census divisions with between 10% and 25% projected growth in number of children aged 0-14 over 2015-2041 include: Middlesex, Brant, Waterloo, Wellington, Hamilton, Haliburton, Frontenac.

Census divisions with over 25% projected growth in number of children aged 0-14 over 2015-2041 include: Halton, Peel, Dufferin, York, Simcoe, Toronto, Durham, Ottawa.

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Chart 13

This line chart shows the historical total fertility rate of Ontario women from 1979 to 2011, and projections under the three scenarios for 2016-2041. Over the historical period, the total fertility rate in Ontario was relatively stable, going from 1.61 in 1979 to 1.55 in 2011. Under the reference scenario, the total fertility rate is projected to be relatively stable, starting at 1.57 in 2016 and falling to 1.60 in 2041. Under the high scenario, the total fertility rate is projected to increase from 1.62 in 2016 to 1.9 in 2041. Under the low scenario, the total fertility rate is projected to decline from 1.52 in 2016 to 1.3 in 2041.

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Chart 14

This line chart shows the historical life expectancy at birth by gender in Ontario from 1979 to 2010, and projections under three scenarios for 2016-2041.

For females, life expectancy at birth rose from 78.9 years in 1979 to 83.9 years in 2010. Over the projection period to 2041, life expectancy of females is projected to increase gradually to reach 88.7 years under the reference scenario, 89.8 years under the high scenario, and 87.4 years under the low scenario.

For males, life expectancy at birth rose from 71.8 years in 1979 to 79.8 years in 2010. Over the projection period to 2041, life expectancy of males is projected to increase gradually to reach 86.6 years under the reference scenario, 88.0 years under the high scenario, and 85.0 years under the low scenario.

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Chart 15

This line chart shows the historical immigration rate to Ontario from 1971 to 2015 and projections under three scenarios to 2041. Over the historical period, the immigration rate was very volatile, starting at 0.79% in 1971-72, rising to 1.49% by 1975-76, declining to a low of 0.44% by the mid-1980, rising again to 1.38% by 1992-93, and then falling gradually to reach 0.65% in 2014-15.

Over the projections period 2015-2041, the immigration rate to Ontario is projected to be 0.8% in the reference scenario, to increase gradually to 1.0% in the high scenario, and to decline over time to reach 0.6% in the low scenario.

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Chart 16

This chart shows historical annual immigration levels to Ontario from 1971 to 2015 and projections under three scenarios to 2041. Over the historical period, immigration was very volatile, stating at about 62,000 in 1971-72, rising to 120,000 by 1973-74, falling to 40,000 in the mid-1980s, rising to peak at 153,000 in 2001-02, and gradually declining thereafter to reach 89,000 in 2014-15.

Immigration to Ontario is projected to increase from 114,000 in 2015-16 to 142,000 in 2040-41 in the reference scenario, from 128,000 to 198,000 in the high scenario, and to decline from 100,000 to 96,000 in the low scenario.

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Chart 17

This chart shows historical annual emigration levels from Ontario from 1971 to 2015 and projections under three scenarios to 2041. Over the historical period, emigration was very volatile, stating at about 13,000 in 1971-72, rising to 22,000 by 1973-74, falling to 8,000 in 1980-81, rising to peak at 27,000 in 1993-94 and declining thereafter to reach an average of about 15,000 from 2009 to 2015.

Emigration from Ontario is projected to increase from 16,000 in 2015-16 to 20,000 in 2040-41 in the reference scenario, from 11,000 to 115,000 in the high scenario, and from 22,000 to 23,000 in the low scenario.

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Chart 18

This chart shows historical annual net gains in non-permanent residents in Ontario from 1971 to 2015 and projections under three scenarios to 2041. Over the historical period, the net gain was very volatile, starting with values close to zero in the early 1970s, with a peak of 95,000 in 1988-89 and a deep through of -54,000 in 1992-93. Values over the last 10 years averaged about 11,000.

The projected annual net gain of non-permanent residents in Ontario in the reference scenario is projected to fall in the short term, from 11,500 in 2015-16 to 7,500 by 2018-19, and remain stable thereafter. In the high scenario, the net gain initially declines from 16,500 to 12,500 before stabilizing. In the low scenario, the net gain goes from 6,500 to 2,500 by 2018-19 and remains at that level for the rest of the projection period.

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Chart 19

This chart shows the historical net interprovincial migration gain in Ontario from 1971 to 2015 and projections under three scenarios to 2041.

Over the historical period, net interprovincial migration followed cycles of net gains followed by net losses. Net interprovincial migration was generally negative during the 1970s, the late 1980s and early 1990s, and has been negative since 2003. Positive cycles occurred during the early 1980s and the late 1990s. Over the last 5 years, net annual interprovincial migration to Ontario averaged about -10,000.

In the reference scenario, annual net interprovincial migration is set at 5,000 for 2015-16, 7,500 for 2016-17, and gradually goes to zero by 2019-20. In the high scenario, a net annual inflow of 10,000 is assumed for 2015-16, 12,500 for 2016-17, followed by a gradual decrease to a net of 5,000 starting in 2019-20. In the low scenario, net interprovincial migration is set at zero for 2015-16, 2,500 for 2016-17, and gradually falls to a net outflow of 5,000 starting in 2019-20.

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