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Ce rapport est disponible en français sous le titre Projections démographiques pour l’Ontario, 2013–2041
© Queen’s Printer for Ontario, 2014
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This report presents population projections for Ontario and each of its 49 census divisions, by age and sex, from the new base year of 2013 to 2041. These projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance and are based on the 2011 Census.
In February 2014, Statistics Canada released the first population estimates for census divisions based on the 2011 Census. Following the release, the Ministry of Finance undertook a major review of its population projection assumptions and methodology. A new long-term projection was produced using as its base the preliminary July 1, 2013 postcensal population estimates from Statistics Canada. Upper tier municipalities, Ontario Government ministries and academic demographers were asked for comments on draft projections through a broad consultation.
The new projections include three scenarios for Ontario. The medium, or reference scenario, is considered most likely to occur. The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a reasonable forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth. Projections for each of the 49 census divisions are for the reference scenario only.
The projections do not represent Ontario government policy targets or desired population outcomes, nor do they incorporate explicit economic or planning assumptions. They are developed using a standard demographic methodology in which assumptions for population growth reflect recent trends in all streams of migration and the continuing evolution of long-term fertility and mortality patterns in each census division. Census division projections are summed to obtain the Ontario total.
As a result, the Ministry of Finance projections provide a reasonable population outlook for Ontario if current trends persist. However, it is worth noting that for purposes of planning and managing growth, municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe are required to conform to the population forecasts approved under the Places to Grow Act.
The new projections will be updated every year to provide planners and researchers with a demographic outlook reflecting the most up-to-date trends and historical data.
The report includes a set of detailed statistical tables on the new projections. Key demographic terms are defined in a glossary.
Highlights of the new 2013–2041 projections are for the reference scenario:
The Ministry of Finance projections provide three reasonable growth scenarios for the population of Ontario to 2041. The medium-growth or reference scenario is considered most likely to occur. The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth. Population is projected for each of the 49 census divisions for the reference scenario only. Charts and tables in this report are for the reference scenario, unless otherwise stated.
Under all three scenarios, Ontario’s population is projected to experience healthy growth over the 2013–2041 period. In the reference scenario, population is projected to grow 31.3 per cent, or more than 4.2 million, over the next 28 years, from an estimated 13.5 million on July 1, 2013 to almost 17.8 million on July 1, 2041.
In the low-growth scenario, population increases 15.4 per cent, or 2.1 million, to reach over 15.6 million people by 2041. In the high-growth scenario, population grows 47.3 per cent, or 6.4 million, to 19.9 million people by the end of the projection period.
The annual rate of growth of Ontario’s population in the reference scenario is projected to remain close to 1.0 per cent for most of the projection period.
In the low-growth scenario, the annual rate of population growth is projected to average 0.5 per cent over the projection period. In the high-growth scenario, the population is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.4 per cent between 2013 and 2041.
In any given year, the contributions of natural increase and net migration to population growth vary. While natural increase trends evolve slowly, net migration can be more variable, mostly due to swings in interprovincial migration and variations in immigration. For example, over the past 10 years, the share of population growth coming from net migration has been as high as 67 per cent in 2003–04 and as low as 51 per cent in 2006–07.
Net migration levels to Ontario have averaged about 79,000 per year in the past decade, with a low of 52,000 in 2006-07 and a high of 98,000 in 2011-12. The number of births and deaths has been rising slowly and at a similar pace. As a result, natural increase has been fairly stable at about 50,000 annually over the last decade.
Over the next five years, net migration is projected to increase significantly as current net losses of population through interprovincial migration subside. Ontario’s annual net migration gain is projected to rise from 82,000 to 96,000 during the first five years of the projection. Over the rest of the projection period, net migration levels will increase more gradually to reach 128,000 by 2040–41. The share of population growth accounted for by net migration is projected to rise from 61 per cent in 2013–14 to reach over 89 per cent by 2041 as a result of lower natural increase.
Future levels of natural increase will be affected by two main factors over the projection period. First will be the passage of the baby boom echo generation (children of baby boomers) through peak fertility years, which will result in an increase in the number of births through the late 2010s and early 2020s. Births are projected to increase from 144,000 in 2013–14 to over 162,000 by the mid-2020s and remain above that level until the end of the projection period.
The second major factor influencing the future path of natural increase in Ontario will be the transition of large cohorts of baby boomers into the senior age group. By 2031, all baby boomers will be 65 or older and the number of deaths will start to increase more rapidly. Over the first decade of the projections, the pace of increase in the annual number of deaths in Ontario is projected to slow as the small cohorts born during the 1930s reach their life expectancy. From 2013 to 2023, the annual number of deaths will rise from 92,000 to 108,000. Over the remaining years to 2041, the annual number of deaths will increase faster, to reach over 153,000.
Overall, natural increase is projected to edge up from 52,000 in 2013–14 to a high of 53,000 in 2019–20, followed by a steady decline to 15,000 by 2040–41. The share of population growth accounted for by natural increase is projected to decline from 39 per cent in 2013–14 to 11 per cent by 2040–41.
By 2041, there will be more people in every age group in Ontario compared to 2013, with a sharp increase in the number of seniors. Baby boomers will have swelled the ranks of seniors; children of the baby boom echo generation will be of school-age; and the baby boom echo cohorts, along with a new generation of immigrants, will have bolstered the population aged 15–64.
The median age of Ontario’s population is projected to rise from 40 years in 2013 to 45 years in 2041. The median age for women will climb from 41 to 46 years over the projection period while for men it is projected to increase from 39 to 44 years.
The number of seniors aged 65 and over is projected to more than double from about 2.1 million, or 15.2 per cent of population in 2013, to over 4.5 million, or 25.5 per cent, by 2041. In 2015, for the first time, seniors will account for a larger share of population than children aged 0–14.
By the early 2030s, once all baby boomers have reached age 65, the pace of increase in the number and share of seniors is projected to slow significantly. The annual growth rate of the senior age group is projected to slow from an average of 3.6 per cent over 2013–31 to less than 1.2 per cent by the end of the projection period. However, this age group will still be growing much faster than the 0–14 and 15–64 age groups.
The older age groups will experience the fastest growth among seniors. The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to rise from 923,000 in 2013 to 2.7 million by 2041. The 90+ group will more than quadruple in size, from 95,000 to 412,000.
The proportion of women among the oldest seniors is projected to remain higher than that of men but will decline slightly as male life expectancy is projected to increase faster. In 2013, there were 44 per cent more women than men in the 75+ age group. By 2041, it is projected that there will be 18 per cent more women than men in the 75+ age group.
The number of children aged 0–14 is projected to increase gradually over the projection period, from 2.2 million in 2013 to over 2.6 million by 2041. The share of children in the population is projected to fall from 16.2 per cent in 2013 to 14.9 per cent by 2041. By the late 2030s, the number of children is projected to grow at a much slower pace than other age groups reflecting the smaller number of women in their 20s and 30s.
The number of Ontarians aged 15–64 is projected to grow from 9.3 million in 2013 to 10.6 million by 2041, a slower pace of increase than the 0–14 and 65+ age groups. As a result, the 15–64 age group is projected to account for a decreasing share of total population, falling from 68.6 per cent in 2013 to 59.6 per cent by 2041.
The growth rate of the population aged 15–64 is projected to continue to trend lower until the mid-2020s. From an annual rate of growth of 0.5 per cent at the beginning of the projection, this age group is projected to grow by less than 0.2 per cent by the late 2020s. By the end of the 2020s, as the children of the baby boom echo begin to reach age 15, the pace of annual growth of the 15–64 age group is projected to improve to 0.8 per cent by 2040–41.
Within the 15–64 age group, the number of youth aged 15–24 is initially projected to decline slightly, from a high of 1,837,000 in 2013 to a low of 1,709,000 by 2022. The youth population is then projected to resume growing, reaching over 2.0 million by 2041. The youth share of total population is projected to decline from 13.6 per cent in 2013 to 11.1 per cent by 2033, followed by a small rise to 11.4 per cent by 2041.
The number of people aged 25–44 is projected to increase throughout the projection period, from 3.6 million in 2013 to almost 4.3 million by 2041, while their share of population will decline from 26.8 to 23.9 per cent.
The number of people aged 45–64 is projected to continue to increase over the first decade of the projections, from 3.8 million in 2013 to almost 4 million by 2021 before declining slightly during the 2020s. This age group will resume growth during the 2030s to reach over 4.3 million by 2041. Its share of population is projected to decline gradually from 28.2 per cent in 2013 to 24.3 per cent by 2041.
The main demographic determinants of regional population growth are the current age structure of the population, the pace of natural increase, and the migratory movements in and out of each of Ontario’s regions. Demographic trends vary significantly among the 49 census divisions that comprise the six geographical regions of Ontario.
The current age structure of each region has a direct impact on projected regional births and deaths. A region with a higher share of its current population in older age groups will likely experience more deaths in the future than a region of comparable size with a younger population. Similarly, a region with a large share of young adults in its population is expected to see more births than a region of comparable size with an older age structure. Also, since migration rates vary by age, the age structure of a region or census division will have an impact on the migration of its population.
The general aging of the population will result in a rising number of census divisions where deaths will exceed births (negative natural increase) over the projection period. Deaths exceeded births in 21 of Ontario’s 49 census divisions over the past five years. This number is projected to rise gradually so that 37 census divisions are projected to experience negative natural increase by 2040–41. These 37 census divisions will represent 26 per cent of Ontario’s population in 2041.
This declining trend in natural increase means that many census divisions in Ontario where natural increase previously was the main or even sole contributor to population growth have already started to see their population growth slow. This trend is projected to continue as the population ages further.
Migration is the most important factor contributing to population growth for Ontario as a whole and for most regions. Net migration gains, whether from international sources, other parts of Canada or other regions of Ontario, are projected to continue to be the major source of population growth for almost all census divisions.
Large urban areas, especially the GTA, which receive most of the international migration to Ontario are projected to grow strongly. For other regions such as Central Ontario, the continuation of migration gains from other parts of the province will be a key source of growth. Some census divisions of Northern Ontario receive only a small share of international migration and have been experiencing net out-migration, mostly among youth, which reduces both current and future population growth.
The GTA is projected to be the fastest growing region of the province, accounting for almost 70 per cent of Ontario’s net population growth to 2041. The GTA’s population is projected to increase from 6.5 million in 2013 to 9.4 million in 2041. The region’s share of total Ontario population is projected to rise from 47.6 per cent in 2013 to 52.9 per cent in 2041. It passes the 50 per cent mark in 2025.
Within the GTA, Toronto’s population is projected to rise from 2.77 million in 2013 to 3.64 million in 2041, an increase of 31.3 per cent, similar to the provincial growth rate. Growth in the other census divisions of the GTA (Durham, Halton, Peel and York) will be significantly faster than the Ontario average, with the addition of almost 2.1 million people to the suburban GTA. Peel alone is projected to see its population increase by 724,000 over 2013–41, a 52.2 per cent rise. Halton is projected to be the fastest-growing census division in Ontario over the projection period, with growth of 72.7 per cent to 2041.
The population of Central Ontario is projected to grow by 699,000 or 24.0 per cent, from 2.91 million in 2013 to 3.61 million in 2041. The region’s share of provincial population will decline slightly from 21.5 to 20.3 per cent. Three census divisions surrounding the GTA will continue to experience population growth above the provincial average; they are Simcoe at 36.0 per cent, Waterloo at 33.3 per cent and Dufferin at 32.0 per cent.
The population of Eastern Ontario is projected to grow 27.1 per cent over the projection period, from 1.78 million to 2.26 million. Ottawa is projected to grow fastest (43.6 per cent) from 934,000 in 2013 to over 1.34 million in 2041. Most other Eastern Ontario census divisions will also grow, but below the provincial average, with Frontenac and Prescott & Russell growing by 23.8 and 21.4 per cent respectively. The census divisions of Hastings and Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry are projected to experience population decline over 2013–2041.
The population of Southwestern Ontario is projected to grow from 1.60 million in 2013 to 1.74 million in 2041, an increase of 8.4 per cent. Growth rates within Southwestern Ontario will vary, with Middlesex and Elgin growing fastest (25.3 and 11.0 per cent respectively). The populations of Lambton, Huron and Chatham-Kent are projected to decline over the 2013–2041 period.
The population of Northern Ontario is projected to be relatively stable over the projection horizon, with a slight decrease of 3.4 per cent, from 803,000 in 2013 to 776,000 by 2041. Within the North, the Northeast is projected to see a population decline of 23,000 or 4.2 per cent, from 564,000 to 540,000. The Northwest is projected to experience population decline of 4,000 people, or 1.7 per cent, from 240,000 to 236,000.
In the past, Northern Ontario’s positive natural increase offset part of the losses it experienced through net migration. However, natural increase in the North as a whole is now negative and it is projected to remain so as the population ages.
Population Shares of Ontario Regions, 1991 to 2041
|Share of Ontario
|Sources: Statistics Canada, 1991–2011, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.|
All regions will see a shift to an older age structure. Regions where natural increase and net migration are projected to become or remain negative will see the largest shifts in age structure.
The GTA is expected to remain the region with the youngest age structure, a result of strong international migration and positive natural increase. The Northeast will remain the region with the oldest age structure.
In 2013, the share of seniors aged 65 and over in regional population ranged from a low of 13.3 per cent in the GTA to a high of 18.8 per cent in the Northeast. Among census divisions, it ranged from 11.3 per cent in Peel to 29.6 per cent in Haliburton.
By 2041, the share of seniors in regions is projected to range from 22.9 per cent in the GTA to 31.5 per cent in the Northeast. Among census divisions, it is projected to range from 22.0 per cent in Peel to 44.6 per cent in Haliburton.
Even as the share of seniors in census divisions located in and around the suburban GTA is projected to remain lower than the provincial average, the increase in the number of seniors in this area will be the most significant. The number of seniors is projected to almost triple in the suburban GTA. Conversely, the number of seniors will grow most slowly (less than 55 per cent) in Algoma, Timiskaming and Huron.
The number of children aged 0–14 is projected to decline in the North and the Southwest, and to increase in the rest of Southern Ontario over the projection period. However, by 2041 the share of children in every region is projected to be slightly lower than it is today. In 2013, the highest share of children among regions was in the Northwest at 17.1 per cent; the Northeast had the lowest share at 14.6 per cent. By 2041, the Northeast will remain the region with the lowest share of children at 13.4 per cent while the highest share will be found in the Northwest at 15.5 per cent.
The suburban GTA census divisions, along with Ottawa, are projected to record the highest growth in the number of children aged 0–14 over the 2013–2041 period, with Halton seeing the most growth at 55 per cent. Conversely, the majority of rural and northern census divisions are projected to have significantly fewer children by 2041, with the largest declines in the North. However, most census divisions are projected to see only a slight decrease in the share of children in their population. In 2013, the highest share of children was found in Kenora at 22.1 per cent and the lowest share in Haliburton at 9.8 per cent. By 2041, Kenora is projected to still have the highest share of children at 20.0 per cent while Haliburton will continue to have the lowest at 9.4 per cent.
The share of population aged 15–64, which ranged from 66.5 per cent in the Southwest to 70.1 per cent in the GTA in 2013, is projected to decline over the 2013–2041 period in every region. The share of this age group is projected range from 61.8 per cent of population in the GTA to 55.1 per cent in the Northeast by 2041.
While the share of population aged 15–64 is projected to fall in every census division of the province, the number of people in this age group is projected to increase in 14 of the 49 census divisions, mainly in the GTA, Central Ontario and urban areas of the East and the Southwest. The highest share of people aged 15–64 in 2013 was in Toronto (71.0 per cent) while the lowest was in Haliburton (60.6 per cent). By 2041, the highest shares will be found in GTA census divisions and in both Waterloo and Ottawa, with Toronto the highest (63.7 per cent). Prince Edward, Haliburton, Northumberland, Kawartha Lakes, Manitoulin and Parry Sound are projected to become the only six census divisions with shares of people aged 15–64 below 50 per cent by the end of the projection period.
The methodology used in Ministry of Finance long-term population projections is the cohort-component method, essentially a demographic accounting system. The calculation starts with the base-year population (2013) distributed by age and sex.
A separate analysis and projection of each component of population growth is made for each year, starting with births. Then, projections of deaths and the five migration components (immigration, net emigration, net change in non-permanent residents, interprovincial in- and out-migration, and intraprovincial in- and out-migration) are also generated and added to the population cohorts to obtain the population of the subsequent year, by age and sex.
This methodology is followed for each of the 49 census divisions. The Ontario-level population is obtained by summing the projected census division populations.
It should be noted that the population projections are demographic, founded on assumptions about births, deaths and migration over the projection period. Assumptions are based on the analysis of the long-term and the most recent trends of these components, as well as expectations of future direction. For Ontario, the degree of uncertainty inherent in projections is represented by the range between the low- and high-growth scenarios, with the reference scenario representing the most likely outcome.
This report includes the first set of demographic projections released by the Ministry of Finance that uses population estimates based on the 2011 Census adjusted for net undercoverage. Specifically, the projections use Statistics Canada’s preliminary July 1, 2013 postcensal population estimates as a base.
As well as providing a new starting point for total population by age and sex, updating the projections to a new base alters the projected age structure and population growth in each census division. It also has an impact on many components of population growth that are projected by using age-specific rates, such as births, deaths and several of the migration streams.
The projected number of births for any given year is obtained by applying age-specific fertility rates to cohorts of women in the reproductive age group, ages 15 to 49. The projection model relies on four parameters1 to generate the annual number of births. The first of these parameters, the total fertility rate (TFR), reflects the level of fertility while the other three parameters (the mean age at maternity, the skewness and the variance of the distribution) reflect the timing, or age, at which women have their babies. All parameters used are calibrated to generate age-specific fertility rates that closely follow recent trends.
Assumptions are based on a careful analysis of past age-specific fertility trends in Ontario and a review of fertility trends elsewhere in Canada and in other countries. A general and common trend is that a growing proportion of women are postponing births to their 30s and early 40s.
The decline in the fertility rate among young women is accompanied by a rise in fertility rates among older women. Over the past 20 years, teenage girls and women in their early 20s have experienced the sharpest declines in fertility rates. Women in their late 20s had rapidly declining fertility rates over the 1990s and early 2000s, followed by a period of slower decline up to 2008. Recent data point toward a faster rate of decline over the 2008-11 period for this age group.
Fertility rates of women in their 30s and older, which were rising moderately over the 1990s and more rapidly over most of the 2000s, have shown a slower pace of increase in the most recent years. These are the same cohorts of women who postponed births during their 20s and are now having children in their 30s and early 40s.
Following about half a century of almost continuous decline, the total fertility rate in Ontario reached a low in 2002, at 1.48 children per woman. From the 2002 low, annual TFR values increased gradually, rising to 1.60 in 2008. Most recently, TFR has declined, reaching 1.55 in 2011 (latest available). This is less than half of the total fertility rate recorded during the 1960 peak of the Baby Boom when Ontario’s total fertility rate reached 3.8 children per woman with a record 159,000 births registered that year. By 1972, fertility fell below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
Most researchers agree that fertility rates in the future are unlikely to return to the highs observed in the 1950s and early 1960s. Rather, it is believed that relatively small fluctuations around values below the replacement level are more likely.
In the reference scenario, the TFR is assumed to increase slightly from 1.55 to 1.60 children per woman by 2030 as younger women’s fertility rates stabilize while those of older women continue to gradually increase.
In the low-growth scenario, fertility is assumed to decline gradually until the TFR reaches 1.30 children per woman at the end of the projection period. In the high-growth scenario, the TFR increases gradually to 1.90 children per woman by the end of the period.
The most recent data at the census division level (2011) shows that TFRs range from a high of 2.34 in Manitoulin to a low of 1.39 in Toronto. Trends in the evolution of the TFR in each census division over the past fifteen years show no convergence of TFRs by census division. For this reason, the projected parameters for fertility at the census division level are modelled to maintain the regional differences. The census division-to-province ratio for mean age at fertility in the most recent period is assumed to remain constant. The variance and skewness of fertility distributions at the census division level evolve over the projection period following the same absolute changes of these parameters at the Ontario level.
The projected number of deaths each year is obtained by applying age-specific mortality rates to population cohorts in corresponding ages. Assumptions of future age-specific death rates are derived2 from trends observed over the 1971–2010 period related to the pace of improvement in overall life expectancy and the age patterns in mortality.
The province of Ontario has one of the highest levels of life expectancy in Canada and among the countries of the developed world. A newborn female in Ontario can expect to live 83.9 years and a newborn male 79.8 years (2010 data). Since 1994, average gains in life expectancy have been in the order of 0.18 years per annum for females and 0.28 years per annum for males.
Up to the mid-1990s, annual gains in life expectancy were getting somewhat smaller and it was expected that future improvements would continue at this slowing pace. However, over the past decade, annual gains in life expectancy have picked up and are rising in a more linear trajectory. Future gains in life expectancy concentrated at older ages and are smaller for infants.
In the reference scenario, life expectancy in Ontario is projected to continue increasing linearly over the first decade of the projection, followed by a gradual slowing in the rate of increase. By 2041, life expectancy is projected to reach 86.6 years for males and 88.7 years for females. This means total life expectancy gains of 6.8 years for males and 4.8 years for females between 2010 and 2041.
For low-and high-growth scenarios, assumptions of life expectancy at birth at the end of the projection period are first developed. For intervening years, life expectancy is assumed to increase linearly. The derived set of assumptions for the three scenarios for Ontario all reflect a continuation of the gains recorded in the average duration of life.
In the low-growth scenario, life expectancy increases at a slower pace, to 85.0 and 87.4 years for males and females respectively. In the high-growth scenario, life expectancy reaches 88.0 and 89.8 years for males and females respectively.
Under the assumptions on mortality for each of the three scenarios, male life expectancy is expected to progress at a faster pace than female life expectancy. This is consistent with recent trends where males have recorded larger gains than females. Thus, the overall gap between males and females has gradually decreased, and is projected to continue to do so.
| Table B
Life Expectancy in Ontario, 1981 to 2041
|At age 65||14.5||15.8||17.2||19.2||20.9||22.4||23.9|
|At age 65||19||19.7||20.4||22||23.2||24.4||25.5|
|Sources: Statistics Canada, 1981–2001, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.|
At the census division level, the mortality assumptions were developed using a ratio methodology. The Ontario-level mortality structure was applied to each census division’s age structure over the most recent three years of comparable data and the expected number of deaths was computed. This was then compared to the actual annual number of deaths for each census division over this period to create ratios of actual-to-expected number of deaths. These ratios were then multiplied by provincial age-specific death rates to create death rates for each census division. These were then applied to the corresponding census division population to derive the number of deaths for each census division.
An analysis of the ratio of actual-to-expected deaths for each census division did not reveal a consistent pattern or movement toward a convergence or divergence among regions over time.
For this reason, the recent three-year average ratio for each census division was held constant over the projection period.
The following sections discuss assumptions and methodology for the components of net migration, including immigration, emigration, non-permanent residents, interprovincial migration and intraprovincial migration.
Immigration levels in Canada are determined by federal government policy. The federal Minister of Citizenship and Immigration sets the national target range for the level of immigration to be achieved over the following year. For the calendar year 2014, the target range is set at 240,000 to 265,000 immigrants.
From 1995 to 2007, the target range was increased gradually by successive federal governments. These increases to the immigration target helped maintain a relatively stable immigration rate to Canada of about 0.75 per cent of population each year. During this period, Ontario’s immigration as a share of population has been higher than for Canada as a whole, averaging one per cent of population.
Since 2007, federal immigration policy has changed, with a goal of spreading immigrants more evenly across the country primarily through the expansion of the provincial nominee program. As a result, Ontario’s share of total Canadian immigration has fallen from 48.5 per cent in 2006–07 to 40.2 per cent in 2012–13. Moreover, Ontario’s immigration rate declined from 0.9 per cent to less than 0.8 per cent over the same period.
In the reference scenario, the assumed long-term immigration rate is set at 0.8 per cent. This long-term immigration rate of 0.8 per cent is reached over a ten-year transition period to reflect the slightly lower rates observed in recent years.
Once the long-term immigration rate is reached, the number of immigrants increases over time as population grows. In the reference scenario, the annual immigration level is projected to increase from 102,000 in 2013–14 to 119,000 by 2022–23 to reach the long-term immigration rate assumption of 0.8 per cent of population. Over the rest of the projection period, the level of immigration is projected to increase gradually, in tandem with overall population growth, reaching 141,000 by 2040–41.
The long-term immigration rate is set at 0.6 per cent in the low-growth scenario, resulting in immigration levels rising slowly, from 88,000 in 2013–14 to 94,000 by 2040–41. In the high-growth scenario, the long-term rate of immigration is set at 1.0 per cent, resulting in immigration levels rising strongly, from 115,000 in 2013–14 to 197,000 by 2040–41.
Projected immigration shares for each census division are based on the trends observed in the distribution of immigrants by census division over the recent past. These shares evolve throughout the projection period following established trends. The average age-sex distribution pattern for immigrants observed over the past five years is assumed to remain constant over the entire projection period. Over 85 per cent of immigrants coming to Ontario are aged 0–44.
Total emigration is defined as the gross flow of international emigration, minus returning emigrants, plus the net variation in the number of Ontarians temporarily abroad. The level of total emigration from Ontario averaged 14,600 over the past three years.
The number of emigrants is difficult to estimate with a high degree of accuracy because of incomplete information. Statistics Canada publishes annual estimates of these flows based on a variety of sources, such as administrative data files and immigration statistics published by agencies of foreign countries.
In the reference scenario, the average emigration rates by age and sex for each census division observed over the past five years are used to model the projected number of people emigrating annually from each census division. The modelling is dynamic, taking into account the annual changes in age structure within census divisions. For Ontario as a whole, this results in the number of emigrants increasing gradually over the projection period to reach 20,600 by 2040–41.
In the low-growth scenario, emigration rates by age and sex used in the reference scenario are increased by 30 per cent, making them 130 per cent of recently-observed rates. This results in emigration levels reaching 23,600 by 2040–41.
In the high-growth scenario, emigration rates by age and sex used in the reference scenario are reduced by 30 per cent, making them equivalent to 70 per cent of recently-observed rates. This results in the number of emigrants reaching 15,900 by 2040–41.
The projected number of people, by age and gender, emigrating from each census division for each year of the projections is modelled using the average emigration rates by age and gender for each census division observed over the past five years.
Statistics Canada estimates that there were about 286,000 non-permanent residents (NPRs) living in Ontario in 2013 (e.g., foreign students, temporary workers, refugee claimants). These foreign residents are included in the base population as they are counted in the Census.
The year-to-year change in their total number must be accounted for as a component of population growth. Determining assumptions for this component is complicated by the significant annual fluctuations and the transient nature of this group.
Over the past 30 years, Ontario has gained on average 6,800 non-permanent residents annually. The reference scenario reflects long-terms trends in the annual change in the number of NPRs by setting the long-term yearly gain to 7,500. In the low- and high-growth scenarios, the long-term annual change in the stock of NPRs is set at 2,500 and 12,500 respectively. The long-term assumptions for each scenario are reached after a transition period of three years, moderating from the relatively high net gains observed recently.
Projected shares of non-permanent residents for each census division are based on the share held by each census division in 2013. The age-sex distribution of non-permanent residents is based on the average of the last five years. The distribution pattern is assumed to remain constant over the projection period.
Interprovincial migration is a component of population growth that fluctuates significantly from year to year. Although Ontario remains a major province of attraction for migrants from some other provinces, trend analysis of the last three decades reveals a mixed pattern of several years of gains followed by several years of losses. This pattern is usually closely tied to economic cycles.
Since 2003, net interprovincial migration to Ontario has been negative, largely due to net outflows to Alberta. Over the past 30 years, net interprovincial migration into Ontario averaged 2,700 per year. However, this includes the abnormally large inflows from Quebec recorded in the years following the 1980 referendum. Excluding the extra inflows during this period, long-term net interprovincial migration to Ontario is modestly negative.
In the reference scenario, annual net interprovincial migration for Ontario reflects recent trends in the short term. It is set at -14,000 for 2013–14, gradually returning to long-term historical values by 2017–18 with a net of zero and then remaining at that level for the rest of the projection period.
In the low-growth scenario, net interprovincial migration for Ontario is assumed to improve gradually from a net outflow of 19,000 people in 2013–14 to a net outflow of 5,000 from 2017–18 onwards. In the high-growth scenario, a net annual outflow of 9,000 people is assumed for 2013–14, followed by a gradual increase to a net inflow of 5,000 annually starting in 2017–18.
The annual in-flows corresponding to the long-term net migration levels in the low-growth, reference and high-growth scenarios are 62,500, 65,000 and 67,500 respectively. The corresponding annual out-flows are 67,500, 65,000 and 62,500.
Each census division’s share of Ontario inflow and outflow of interprovincial migrants over the last five years is applied to projected flows for the province and held constant throughout the projection period.
At the census division level, intraprovincial migration, or the movement of population from one census division to another within the province, is a significant component of population growth. This component affects population growth only at the census division level.
The annual number of intraprovincial migrants in Ontario has fluctuated within the 350,000 to 430,000 range over the past 20 years. Over the projection period, the annual number of intraprovincial migrants increases gradually from 387,000 in 2013–14 to 433,000 in 2040–41. This increase over time reflects population growth and age structure changes at the census division level. In fact, even as the number of intraprovincial migrants is projected to increase, the resulting rate of intraprovincial migration in Ontario will decline slightly over the projection period, from 2.86 per cent in 2013-14 to 2.45 per cent by 2040-41.
The projected number of people, by age, leaving each census division for each year of the projections, as well as their destination within the province, is modelled using the origin-destination migration rates by age for each census division over the past five years. Because migration rates by age group are different for each census division and because different age groups have different origin-destination behaviours, the methodology provides a powerful tool to project movers based on observed age and origin-destination migration patterns. The modelling is dynamic, taking into account the annual changes in age structure within census divisions.
The evolution of intraprovincial migration patterns in each census division was studied to identify specific trends and the intraprovincial migration rate assumptions were adjusted to account for these trends.
People born during the period following World War II, 1946 to 1965, marked by an significant increase in fertility rates and in the number of births.