Ontario Population Projections Update, 2016–2041
Table 2: Ontario population and selected characteristics under three scenarios, 2006–2041

Reference scenario

Table 2: Ontario population and selected characteristics, 2006–2041 — Reference scenario
Part A: Estimates
Year Total population
(Thousands)
Births
(Thousands)
Deaths
(Thousands)
Net migration4a
(Thousands)
Annual growth
(Per cent)
Median age
(Years)
Age group share (%)
0–14
Age group share (%)
15–64
Age group share (%)
65+
2006–07 12,661.6 137.0 86.8 52.5 0.8 38.4 17.8 69.2 13.0
2007–08 12,764.2 140.5 87.5 65.4 0.9 38.7 17.5 69.2 13.2
2008–09 12,882.6 140.3 88.4 63.1 0.9 39.0 17.3 69.2 13.5
2009–10 12,997.7 139.8 87.6 85.2 1.1 39.3 17.1 69.2 13.7
2010–11 13,135.1 139.4 90.9 79.9 1.0 39.6 16.9 69.2 13.9
2011–12 13,263.5 141.0 88.5 97.6 1.1 39.8 16.6 69.1 14.2
2012–13 13,413.7 142.4 92.5 92.6 1.1 40.0 16.4 68.9 14.7
2013–14 13,556.2 144.1 95.9 80.8 1.0 40.2 16.2 68.6 15.2
2014–15 13,685.2 145.5 99.2 65.6 0.8 40.4 16.0 68.3 15.6
2015–16 13,797.0 147.2 102.7 141.4 1.3 40.6 15.9 68.0 16.0
Table 2: Ontario population and selected characteristics, 2006–2041 — Reference scenario
Part B: Projections
Year Total population
(Thousands)
Births
(Thousands)
Deaths
(Thousands)
Net migration4b
(Thousands)
Annual growth
(Per cent)
Median age
(Years)
Age group share (%)
0–14
Age group share (%)
15–64
Age group share (%)
65+
2016–172a 13,983.0 149.0 96.2 193.8 1.8 40.6 15.9 67.8 16.4
2017–18 14,229.5 153.2 98.0 154.3 1.5 40.6 15.8 67.5 16.7
2018–19 14,439.0 156.5 99.8 138.6 1.4 40.7 15.7 67.2 17.1
2019–20 14,634.3 159.3 101.5 122.8 1.2 40.8 15.7 66.8 17.5
2020–21 14,815.0 161.7 103.2 107.0 1.1 40.9 15.7 66.4 18.0
2021–22 14,980.4 163.6 104.9 108.1 1.1 41.0 15.7 65.9 18.4
2022–23 15,147.2 165.4 106.6 109.2 1.1 41.2 15.7 65.4 18.9
2023–24 15,315.1 166.8 108.4 110.4 1.1 41.3 15.7 64.9 19.4
2024–25 15,483.9 167.9 110.2 111.5 1.1 41.5 15.7 64.4 19.9
2025–26 15,653.1 168.8 112.1 112.7 1.1 41.6 15.7 63.8 20.5
2026–27 15,822.5 169.3 114.1 113.9 1.1 41.8 15.7 63.3 21.0
2027–28 15,991.6 169.5 116.1 115.1 1.1 42.0 15.7 62.8 21.5
2028–29 16,160.0 169.5 118.3 116.3 1.0 42.1 15.8 62.2 22.0
2029–30 16,327.5 169.3 120.6 117.5 1.0 42.3 15.8 61.7 22.5
2030–31 16,493.8 169.0 122.9 118.7 1.0 42.5 15.7 61.3 23.0
2031–32 16,658.6 168.7 125.4 119.9 1.0 42.6 15.7 61.0 23.3
2032–33 16,821.8 168.5 128.0 121.1 1.0 42.8 15.7 60.7 23.6
2033–34 16,983.4 168.3 130.8 122.3 0.9 43.0 15.6 60.5 23.8
2034–35 17,143.3 168.3 133.6 123.5 0.9 43.2 15.6 60.4 24.0
2035–36 17,301.4 168.5 136.6 124.7 0.9 43.4 15.5 60.2 24.3
2036–37 17,458.0 168.9 139.6 125.9 0.9 43.6 15.4 60.1 24.5
2037–38 17,613.1 169.5 142.7 127.0 0.9 43.8 15.3 60.1 24.6
2038–39 17,766.9 170.3 145.9 128.2 0.9 43.9 15.2 60.0 24.7
2039–40 17,919.5 171.3 149.0 129.3 0.8 44.1 15.1 60.1 24.8
2040–41 18,071.1 172.5 152.2 130.4 0.8 44.3 15.0 60.0 24.9
2041 18,221.8 44.4 14.9 60.1 25.0

Low scenario

Table 2: Ontario population and selected characteristics, 2006–2041 — Low scenario
Part A: Estimates
Year Total population
(Thousands)
Births
(Thousands)
Deaths
(Thousands)
Net migration4c
(Thousands)
Annual growth
(Per cent)
Median age
(Years)
Age group share (%)
0–14
Age group share (%)
15–64
Age group share (%)
65+
2006–07 12,661.6 137.0 86.8 52.5 0.8 38.4 17.8 69.2 13.0
2007–08 12,764.2 140.5 87.5 65.4 0.9 38.7 17.5 69.2 13.2
2008–09 12,882.6 140.3 88.4 63.1 0.9 39.0 17.3 69.2 13.5
2009–10 12,997.7 139.8 87.6 85.2 1.1 39.3 17.1 69.2 13.7
2010–11 13,135.1 139.4 90.9 79.9 1.0 39.6 16.9 69.2 13.9
2011–12 13,263.5 141.0 88.5 97.6 1.1 39.8 16.6 69.1 14.2
2012–13 13,413.7 142.4 92.5 92.6 1.1 40.0 16.4 68.9 14.7
2013–14 13,556.2 144.1 95.9 80.8 1.0 40.2 16.2 68.6 15.2
2014–15 13,685.2 145.5 99.2 65.6 0.8 40.4 16.0 68.3 15.6
2015–16 13,797.0 147.2 102.7 141.4 1.3 40.6 15.9 68.0 16.0
Table 2: Ontario population and selected characteristics, 2006–2041 — Low scenario
Part B: Projections
Year Total population
(Thousands)
Births
(Thousands)
Deaths
(Thousands)
Net migration4d
(Thousands)
Annual growth
(Per cent)
Median age
(Years)
Age group share (%)
0–14
Age group share (%)
15–64
Age group share (%)
65+
2016–172b 13,983.0 144.2 102.1 142.9 1.3 40.6 15.9 67.8 16.4
2017–18 14,167.9 146.1 103.9 114.0 1.1 40.7 15.8 67.5 16.7
2018–19 14,324.1 147.4 105.7 102.9 1.0 40.8 15.7 67.2 17.1
2019–20 14,468.8 148.3 107.4 90.0 0.9 40.9 15.6 66.8 17.6
2020–21 14,599.6 148.7 109.1 72.7 0.8 41.1 15.6 66.4 18.0
2021–22 14,711.8 148.7 110.9 72.6 0.8 41.3 15.5 66.0 18.5
2022–23 14,822.3 148.4 112.6 72.6 0.7 41.5 15.4 65.5 19.0
2023–24 14,930.7 147.8 114.4 72.6 0.7 41.7 15.3 65.1 19.6
2024–25 15,036.7 147.1 116.2 72.6 0.7 41.9 15.3 64.6 20.1
2025–26 15,140.1 146.0 118.2 72.6 0.7 42.1 15.2 64.1 20.7
2026–27 15,240.6 144.8 120.2 72.5 0.6 42.3 15.1 63.6 21.3
2027–28 15,337.7 143.3 122.3 72.5 0.6 42.6 15.0 63.1 21.8
2028–29 15,431.2 141.6 124.5 72.4 0.6 42.8 15.0 62.6 22.4
2029–30 15,520.7 139.9 126.8 72.3 0.5 43.0 14.8 62.2 23.0
2030–31 15,606.1 138.0 129.3 72.2 0.5 43.3 14.7 61.8 23.5
2031–32 15,687.1 136.2 131.8 72.0 0.5 43.5 14.6 61.5 23.9
2032–33 15,763.6 134.5 134.4 71.9 0.5 43.7 14.5 61.3 24.2
2033–34 15,835.5 132.9 137.1 71.7 0.4 44.0 14.3 61.2 24.5
2034–35 15,903.0 131.4 140.0 71.5 0.4 44.3 14.2 61.0 24.8
2035–36 15,965.9 130.2 142.9 71.2 0.4 44.5 14.0 60.9 25.1
2036–37 16,024.4 129.1 145.8 71.0 0.3 44.8 13.8 60.8 25.4
2037–38 16,078.7 128.1 148.8 70.7 0.3 45.0 13.7 60.7 25.6
2038–39 16,128.7 127.3 151.8 70.3 0.3 45.3 13.5 60.7 25.8
2039–40 16,174.6 126.6 154.7 70.0 0.3 45.5 13.4 60.7 25.9
2040–41 16,216.5 126.0 157.6 69.6 0.2 45.8 13.2 60.7 26.1
2041 16,254.5 46.0 13.0 60.7 26.3

High scenario

Table 2: Ontario population and selected characteristics, 2006–2041 — High scenario
Part A: Estimates
Year Total population
(Thousands)
Births
(Thousands)
Deaths
(Thousands)
Net migration4e
(Thousands)
Annual growth
(Per cent)
Median age
(Years)
Age group share (%)
0–14
Age group share (%)
15–64
Age group share (%)
65+
2006–07 12,661.6 137.0 86.8 52.5 0.8 38.4 17.8 69.2 13.0
2007–08 12,764.2 140.5 87.5 65.4 0.9 38.7 17.5 69.2 13.2
2008–09 12,882.6 140.3 88.4 63.1 0.9 39.0 17.3 69.2 13.5
2009–10 12,997.7 139.8 87.6 85.2 1.1 39.3 17.1 69.2 13.7
2010–11 13,135.1 139.4 90.9 79.9 1.0 39.6 16.9 69.2 13.9
2011–12 13,263.5 141.0 88.5 97.6 1.1 39.8 16.6 69.1 14.2
2012–13 13,413.7 142.4 92.5 92.6 1.1 40.0 16.4 68.9 14.7
2013–14 13,556.2 144.1 95.9 80.8 1.0 40.2 16.2 68.6 15.2
2014–15 13,685.2 145.5 99.2 65.6 0.8 40.4 16.0 68.3 15.6
2015–16 13,797.0 147.2 102.7 141.4 1.3 40.6 15.9 68.0 16.0
Table 2: Ontario population and selected characteristics, 2006–2041 — High scenario
Part B: Projections
Year Total population
(Thousands)
Births
(Thousands)
Deaths
(Thousands)
Net migration4f
(Thousands)
Annual growth
(Per cent)
Median age
(Years)
Age group share (%)
0–14
Age group share (%)
15–64
Age group share (%)
65+
2016–172c 13,983.0 153.8 90.4 244.8 2.2 40.6 15.9 67.8 16.4
2017–18 14,291.1 160.2 92.1 194.8 1.8 40.6 15.8 67.5 16.7
2018–19 14,554.0 165.4 93.7 174.7 1.7 40.6 15.8 67.2 17.0
2019–20 14,800.5 170.2 95.2 156.1 1.6 40.6 15.8 66.8 17.4
2020–21 15,031.6 174.4 96.8 142.0 1.5 40.7 15.8 66.3 17.9
2021–22 15,251.2 178.2 98.3 144.5 1.5 40.8 15.9 65.8 18.4
2022–23 15,475.5 181.7 99.9 147.0 1.5 40.9 15.9 65.3 18.8
2023–24 15,704.3 185.0 101.5 149.5 1.5 41.0 16.0 64.7 19.3
2024–25 15,937.3 188.0 103.2 152.2 1.5 41.1 16.1 64.2 19.8
2025–26 16,174.2 190.7 104.9 154.9 1.5 41.2 16.1 63.6 20.3
2026–27 16,414.9 193.1 106.7 157.6 1.5 41.3 16.3 63.0 20.8
2027–28 16,658.9 195.2 108.6 160.4 1.5 41.4 16.4 62.4 21.2
2028–29 16,905.9 197.1 110.6 163.3 1.5 41.5 16.5 61.8 21.7
2029–30 17,155.7 198.8 112.7 166.2 1.5 41.6 16.6 61.3 22.1
2030–31 17,408.0 200.5 115.0 169.2 1.5 41.8 16.6 60.8 22.5
2031–32 17,662.7 202.1 117.4 172.2 1.5 41.9 16.7 60.5 22.8
2032–33 17,919.6 203.8 119.9 175.3 1.4 42.0 16.8 60.2 23.0
2033–34 18,178.8 205.7 122.5 178.4 1.4 42.2 16.8 60.0 23.2
2034–35 18,440.3 207.9 125.3 181.5 1.4 42.3 16.8 59.8 23.4
2035–36 18,704.5 210.4 128.2 184.8 1.4 42.5 16.8 59.7 23.6
2036–37 18,971.4 213.3 131.3 188.0 1.4 42.6 16.8 59.5 23.7
2037–38 19,241.4 216.4 134.4 191.3 1.4 42.7 16.7 59.5 23.8
2038–39 19,514.8 219.9 137.6 194.7 1.4 42.8 16.7 59.4 23.9
2039–40 19,791.9 223.8 140.8 198.1 1.4 42.9 16.7 59.4 23.9
2040–41 20,072.9 227.9 144.1 201.6 1.4 42.9 16.6 59.4 24.0
2041 20,358.3 42.9 16.6 59.4 24.0

Sources: Statistics Canada estimates, 2006–2016, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.

Notes:

1. Population and age structure are for the beginning of each Census year, i.e., July 1.

2. [2a], [2b], [2c] For 2016–17, population and age structure are Statistics Canada estimates for July 1, 2016.

3. Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.

4. [4a], [4b], [4c], [4d], [4e], [4f] For historical components of demographic growth, Statistics Canada's residual deviation is included in net migration.

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