Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario under three scenarios, 2006–2041

Reference scenario

Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2006–2041 — Reference scenario
Part A: Estimates
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3 Growth
No.
Growth
%
2006-07 12,661,566 136,980 86,811 50,169 115,445 20,218 2,043 97,270 58,791 78,838 -20,047 52,460 102,629 0.8
2007-08 12,764,195 140,547 87,502 53,045 115,051 20,796 10,712 104,967 61,718 76,468 -14,750 65,385 118,430 0.9
2008-09 12,882,625 140,326 88,359 51,967 105,423 18,425 16,461 103,459 57,458 73,059 -15,601 63,095 115,062 0.9
2009-10 12,997,687 139,771 87,602 52,169 116,572 14,735 12,795 114,632 59,741 64,403 -4,662 85,207 137,376 1.1
2010-11 13,135,063 139,448 90,857 48,591 105,015 14,539 14,657 105,133 58,317 62,324 -4,007 79,890 128,481 1.0
2011-12 13,263,544 139,658 89,988 49,670 101,287 17,145 22,813 106,955 60,459 71,070 -10,611 96,344 146,014 1.1
2012-13 13,409,558 141,248 93,435 47,813 105,910 15,845 17,469 107,534 54,678 68,579 -13,901 93,633 141,446 1.1
2013-14 13,551,004 142,970 96,883 46,087 101,913 16,143 9,390 95,160 57,415 71,979 -14,564 80,596 126,683 0.9
2014-15 13,677,687 144,395 100,327 44,068 89,338 16,307 6,029 79,060 61,727 70,490 -8,763 70,297 114,365 0.8
Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2006–2041 — Reference scenario
Part B: Projections
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3 Growth
No.
Growth
%
2015-16 13,792,052 148,074 94,371 53,703 113,942 16,307 11,501 109,136 67,500 62,501 4,999 114,135 167,838 1.2
2016-17 13,959,890 150,656 96,334 54,322 114,902 16,526 10,166 108,542 68,753 61,255 7,498 116,047 170,369 1.2
2017-18 14,130,259 153,194 98,266 54,928 114,897 16,740 8,835 106,992 67,497 62,503 4,994 111,988 166,916 1.2
2018-19 14,297,175 155,541 100,170 55,371 115,988 16,955 7,499 106,532 66,250 63,747 2,503 109,034 164,405 1.1
2019-20 14,461,580 157,656 102,027 55,629 117,048 17,169 7,497 107,376 65,004 65,000 4 107,386 163,015 1.1
2020-21 14,624,595 159,534 103,870 55,664 118,093 17,370 7,505 108,228 65,004 65,001 3 108,229 163,893 1.1
2021-22 14,788,488 161,260 105,688 55,572 119,139 17,569 7,499 109,069 65,004 64,998 6 109,073 164,645 1.1
2022-23 14,953,133 162,797 107,526 55,271 120,187 17,751 7,501 109,937 65,004 64,999 5 109,934 165,205 1.1
2023-24 15,118,338 164,018 109,390 54,628 121,235 17,918 7,497 110,814 65,004 64,997 7 110,808 165,436 1.1
2024-25 15,283,774 164,962 111,296 53,666 122,274 18,077 7,501 111,698 65,004 64,999 5 111,693 165,359 1.1
2025-26 15,449,133 165,633 113,251 52,382 123,594 18,225 7,498 112,867 65,004 65,000 4 112,867 165,249 1.1
2026-27 15,614,382 166,019 115,276 50,743 124,915 18,362 7,500 114,053 65,004 64,997 7 114,055 164,798 1.1
2027-28 15,779,180 166,161 117,379 48,782 126,233 18,491 7,502 115,244 65,004 65,002 2 115,237 164,019 1.0
2028-29 15,943,199 166,097 119,575 46,522 127,549 18,614 7,498 116,433 65,004 65,004 0 116,435 162,957 1.0
2029-30 16,106,156 165,896 121,857 44,039 128,850 18,731 7,501 117,620 65,004 65,000 4 117,622 161,661 1.0
2030-31 16,267,817 165,649 124,258 41,391 130,136 18,836 7,500 118,800 65,004 65,001 3 118,809 160,200 1.0
2031-32 16,428,017 165,428 126,754 38,674 131,425 18,934 7,501 119,992 65,004 65,002 2 119,989 158,663 1.0
2032-33 16,586,680 165,226 129,357 35,869 132,694 19,028 7,498 121,164 65,004 65,001 3 121,162 157,031 0.9
2033-34 16,743,711 165,119 132,061 33,058 133,952 19,116 7,501 122,337 65,004 65,000 4 122,336 155,394 0.9
2034-35 16,899,105 165,147 134,863 30,284 135,193 19,191 7,499 123,501 65,004 65,000 4 123,505 153,789 0.9
2035-36 17,052,894 165,365 137,731 27,634 136,420 19,268 7,502 124,654 65,004 64,999 5 124,656 152,290 0.9
2036-37 17,205,184 165,786 140,680 25,106 137,643 19,340 7,498 125,801 65,004 65,000 4 125,808 150,914 0.9
2037-38 17,356,098 166,418 143,661 22,757 138,848 19,409 7,501 126,940 65,004 65,004 0 126,943 149,700 0.9
2038-39 17,505,798 167,236 146,686 20,550 140,051 19,490 7,501 128,062 65,004 65,001 3 128,059 148,609 0.8
2039-40 17,654,407 168,227 149,729 18,498 141,237 19,575 7,498 129,160 65,004 64,997 7 129,165 147,663 0.8
2040-41 17,802,070 169,371 152,781 16,590 142,414 19,668 7,499 130,245 65,004 64,995 9 130,248 146,838 0.8
2041 17,948,908 — 

Low scenario

Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2006–2041 — Low scenario
Part A: Estimates
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3 Growth
No.
Growth
%
2006-07 12,661,566 136,980 86,811 50,169 115,445 20,218 2,043 97,270 58,791 78,838 -20,047 52,460 102,629 0.8
2007-08 12,764,195 140,547 87,502 53,045 115,051 20,796 10,712 104,967 61,718 76,468 -14,750 65,385 118,430 0.9
2008-09 12,882,625 140,326 88,359 51,967 105,423 18,425 16,461 103,459 57,458 73,059 -15,601 63,095 115,062 0.9
2009-10 12,997,687 139,771 87,602 52,169 116,572 14,735 12,795 114,632 59,741 64,403 -4,662 85,207 137,376 1.1
2010-11 13,135,063 139,448 90,857 48,591 105,015 14,539 14,657 105,133 58,317 62,324 -4,007 79,890 128,481 1.0
2011-12 13,263,544 139,658 89,988 49,670 101,287 17,145 22,813 106,955 60,459 71,070 -10,611 96,344 146,014 1.1
2012-13 13,409,558 141,248 93,435 47,813 105,910 15,845 17,469 107,534 54,678 68,579 -13,901 93,633 141,446 1.1
2013-14 13,551,004 142,970 96,883 46,087 101,913 16,143 9,390 95,160 57,415 71,979 -14,564 80,596 126,683 0.9
2014-15 13,677,687 144,395 100,327 44,068 89,338 16,307 6,029 79,060 61,727 70,490 -8,763 70,297 114,365 0.8
Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2006–2041 — Low scenario
Part B: Projections
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3 Growth
No.
Growth
%
2015-16 13,792,052 143,352 100,088 43,264 100,130 21,553 6,502 85,079 65,000 65,000 0 85,081 128,345 0.9
2016-17 13,920,397 144,154 102,076 42,078 100,367 21,753 5,168 83,782 66,251 63,751 2,500 86,279 128,357 0.9
2017-18 14,048,754 144,887 104,032 40,855 100,587 21,954 3,834 82,467 65,004 65,001 3 82,467 123,322 0.9
2018-19 14,172,076 145,436 105,955 39,481 100,763 22,141 2,501 81,123 63,753 66,247 -2,494 78,620 118,101 0.8
2019-20 14,290,177 145,780 107,839 37,941 100,884 22,317 2,501 81,068 62,499 67,500 -5,001 76,065 114,006 0.8
2020-21 14,404,183 145,912 109,699 36,213 100,970 22,487 2,501 80,984 62,499 67,500 -5,001 75,989 112,202 0.8
2021-22 14,516,385 145,845 111,552 34,293 101,030 22,636 2,500 80,894 62,499 67,496 -4,997 75,898 110,191 0.8
2022-23 14,626,576 145,566 113,410 32,156 101,068 22,769 2,501 80,800 62,499 67,501 -5,002 75,808 107,964 0.7
2023-24 14,734,540 145,062 115,299 29,763 101,079 22,884 2,501 80,696 62,499 67,501 -5,002 75,699 105,462 0.7
2024-25 14,840,002 144,325 117,228 27,097 101,061 22,977 2,501 80,585 62,499 67,502 -5,003 75,589 102,686 0.7
2025-26 14,942,688 143,339 119,206 24,133 101,013 23,050 2,500 80,463 62,499 67,497 -4,998 75,465 99,598 0.7
2026-27 15,042,286 142,119 121,272 20,847 100,937 23,108 2,501 80,330 62,499 67,499 -5,000 75,319 96,166 0.6
2027-28 15,138,452 140,695 123,413 17,282 100,823 23,160 2,501 80,164 62,499 67,499 -5,000 75,159 92,441 0.6
2028-29 15,230,893 139,099 125,635 13,464 100,676 23,198 2,501 79,979 62,499 67,501 -5,002 74,978 88,442 0.6
2029-30 15,319,335 137,397 127,956 9,441 100,340 23,230 2,500 79,610 62,499 67,501 -5,002 74,619 84,060 0.5
2030-31 15,403,395 135,631 130,376 5,255 100,119 23,246 2,501 79,374 62,499 67,495 -4,996 74,373 79,628 0.5
2031-32 15,483,023 133,869 132,881 988 99,867 23,255 2,501 79,113 62,499 67,503 -5,004 74,112 75,100 0.5
2032-33 15,558,123 132,174 135,477 -3,303 99,572 23,251 2,501 78,822 62,499 67,502 -5,003 73,824 70,521 0.5
2033-34 15,628,644 130,591 138,153 -7,562 99,241 23,241 2,500 78,500 62,499 67,499 -5,000 73,504 65,942 0.4
2034-35 15,694,586 129,155 140,909 -11,754 98,873 23,220 2,501 78,154 62,499 67,503 -5,004 73,155 61,401 0.4
2035-36 15,755,987 127,872 143,718 -15,846 98,473 23,188 2,501 77,786 62,499 67,501 -5,002 72,793 56,947 0.4
2036-37 15,812,934 126,752 146,570 -19,818 98,043 23,154 2,501 77,390 62,499 67,498 -4,999 72,389 52,571 0.3
2037-38 15,865,505 125,775 149,423 -23,648 97,573 23,116 2,500 76,957 62,499 67,503 -5,004 71,956 48,308 0.3
2038-39 15,913,813 124,915 152,289 -27,374 97,073 23,086 2,501 76,488 62,499 67,502 -5,003 71,486 44,112 0.3
2039-40 15,957,925 124,142 155,129 -30,987 96,545 23,052 2,501 75,994 62,499 67,502 -5,003 70,992 40,005 0.3
2040-41 15,997,930 123,438 157,927 -34,489 95,989 23,030 2,501 75,460 62,499 67,499 -5,000 70,454 35,965 0.2
2041 16,033,895 — 

High scenario

Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2006–2041 — High scenario
Part A: Estimates
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3 Growth
No.
Growth
%
2006-07 12,661,566 136,980 86,811 50,169 115,445 20,218 2,043 97,270 58,791 78,838 -20,047 52,460 102,629 0.8
2007-08 12,764,195 140,547 87,502 53,045 115,051 20,796 10,712 104,967 61,718 76,468 -14,750 65,385 118,430 0.9
2008-09 12,882,625 140,326 88,359 51,967 105,423 18,425 16,461 103,459 57,458 73,059 -15,601 63,095 115,062 0.9
2009-10 12,997,687 139,771 87,602 52,169 116,572 14,735 12,795 114,632 59,741 64,403 -4,662 85,207 137,376 1.1
2010-11 13,135,063 139,448 90,857 48,591 105,015 14,539 14,657 105,133 58,317 62,324 -4,007 79,890 128,481 1.0
2011-12 13,263,544 139,658 89,988 49,670 101,287 17,145 22,813 106,955 60,459 71,070 -10,611 96,344 146,014 1.1
2012-13 13,409,558 141,248 93,435 47,813 105,910 15,845 17,469 107,534 54,678 68,579 -13,901 93,633 141,446 1.1
2013-14 13,551,004 142,970 96,883 46,087 101,913 16,143 9,390 95,160 57,415 71,979 -14,564 80,596 126,683 0.9
2014-15 13,677,687 144,395 100,327 44,068 89,338 16,307 6,029 79,060 61,727 70,490 -8,763 70,297 114,365 0.8
Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2006–2041 — High scenario
Part B: Projections
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3 Growth
No.
Growth
%
2015-16 13,792,052 152,795 89,004 63,791 127,714 11,034 16,505 133,185 69,996 60,001 9,995 143,184 206,975 1.5
2016-17 13,999,027 156,878 90,942 65,936 130,050 11,225 15,171 133,996 71,250 58,749 12,501 146,494 212,430 1.5
2017-18 14,211,457 161,003 92,858 68,145 132,452 11,426 13,837 134,863 70,000 60,000 10,000 144,857 213,002 1.5
2018-19 14,424,459 165,029 94,753 70,276 134,872 11,634 12,504 135,742 68,753 61,250 7,503 143,237 213,513 1.5
2019-20 14,637,972 168,902 96,620 72,282 137,303 11,838 12,504 137,969 67,497 62,496 5,001 142,969 215,251 1.5
2020-21 14,853,223 172,617 98,470 74,147 139,766 12,041 12,504 140,229 67,497 62,498 4,999 145,240 219,387 1.5
2021-22 15,072,610 176,178 100,294 75,884 142,285 12,234 12,503 142,554 67,497 62,500 4,997 147,548 223,432 1.5
2022-23 15,296,042 179,542 102,135 77,407 144,855 12,428 12,504 144,931 67,497 62,498 4,999 149,930 227,337 1.5
2023-24 15,523,379 182,677 104,000 78,677 147,472 12,611 12,504 147,365 67,497 62,502 4,995 152,362 231,039 1.5
2024-25 15,754,418 185,554 105,913 79,641 150,140 12,786 12,504 149,858 67,497 62,499 4,998 154,858 234,499 1.5
2025-26 15,988,917 188,141 107,865 80,276 152,852 12,953 12,503 152,402 67,497 62,499 4,998 157,403 237,679 1.5
2026-27 16,226,596 190,446 109,886 80,560 155,614 13,120 12,504 154,998 67,497 62,499 4,998 159,996 240,556 1.5
2027-28 16,467,152 192,484 111,990 80,494 158,413 13,279 12,504 157,638 67,497 62,502 4,995 162,640 243,134 1.5
2028-29 16,710,286 194,297 114,182 80,115 161,256 13,434 12,504 160,326 67,497 62,500 4,997 165,317 245,432 1.5
2029-30 16,955,718 195,948 116,472 79,476 163,962 13,591 12,503 162,874 67,497 62,500 4,997 167,878 247,354 1.5
2030-31 17,203,072 197,508 118,882 78,626 166,869 13,735 12,504 165,638 67,497 62,500 4,997 170,638 249,264 1.4
2031-32 17,452,336 199,068 121,396 77,672 169,813 13,878 12,504 168,439 67,497 62,497 5,000 173,433 251,105 1.4
2032-33 17,703,441 200,732 124,024 76,708 172,781 14,016 12,504 171,269 67,497 62,501 4,996 176,270 252,978 1.4
2033-34 17,956,419 202,581 126,771 75,810 175,793 14,152 12,503 174,144 67,497 62,501 4,996 179,152 254,962 1.4
2034-35 18,211,381 204,674 129,630 75,044 178,836 14,270 12,504 177,070 67,497 62,501 4,996 182,066 257,110 1.4
2035-36 18,468,491 207,047 132,590 74,457 181,915 14,396 12,504 180,023 67,497 62,499 4,998 185,023 259,480 1.4
2036-37 18,727,971 209,745 135,639 74,106 185,035 14,521 12,504 183,018 67,497 62,500 4,997 188,013 262,119 1.4
2037-38 18,990,090 212,771 138,754 74,017 188,194 14,645 12,503 186,052 67,497 62,496 5,001 191,052 265,069 1.4
2038-39 19,255,159 216,115 141,933 74,182 191,397 14,778 12,504 189,123 67,497 62,502 4,995 194,121 268,303 1.4
2039-40 19,523,462 219,761 145,163 74,598 194,652 14,916 12,504 192,240 67,497 62,499 4,998 197,236 271,834 1.4
2040-41 19,795,296 223,710 148,413 75,297 197,955 15,071 12,504 195,388 67,497 62,501 4,996 200,377 275,674 1.4
2041 20,070,970 — 

Sources: Statistics Canada estimates, 2006-2015, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.

Notes:

1. Population age structure is for the beginning of each Census year, i.e., July 1.

2. For 2015-16, population and age structure are Statistics Canada estimates for July 1, 2015.

3. For historical components of demographic growth, Statistics Canada's residual deviation is included in net migration.

LIST OF TABLES