Ontario Population Projections Update, 2016–2041
Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario under three scenarios, 2006–2041

Reference scenario

Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2006–2041 — Reference scenario
Part A: Estimates
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3a Growth
No.
Growth
%
2006–07 12,661,566 136,980 86,811 50,169 115,445 20,218 2,043 97,270 58,791 78,838 -20,047 52,460 102,629 0.8
2007–08 12,764,195 140,547 87,502 53,045 115,051 20,796 10,712 104,967 61,718 76,468 -14,750 65,385 118,430 0.9
2008–09 12,882,625 140,326 88,359 51,967 105,423 18,425 16,461 103,459 57,458 73,059 -15,601 63,095 115,062 0.9
2009–10 12,997,687 139,771 87,602 52,169 116,572 14,735 12,795 114,632 59,741 64,403 -4,662 85,207 137,376 1.1
2010–11 13,135,063 139,448 90,857 48,591 105,015 14,539 14,657 105,133 58,317 62,324 -4,007 79,890 128,481 1.0
2011–12 13,263,544 140,999 88,466 52,533 101,287 17,288 24,237 108,236 60,459 71,070 -10,611 97,625 150,158 1.1
2012–13 13,413,702 142,367 92,472 49,895 105,910 16,565 17,188 106,533 54,678 68,579 -13,901 92,632 142,527 1.1
2013–14 13,556,229 144,051 95,894 48,157 101,913 17,777 11,213 95,349 57,415 71,979 -14,564 80,785 128,942 1.0
2014–15 13,685,171 145,513 99,231 46,282 89,704 17,977 2,553 74,280 62,874 71,569 -8,695 65,585 111,867 0.8
2015–16 13,797,038 147,244 102,701 44,543 119,647 18,078 33,680 135,249 71,104 64,950 6,154 141,403 185,946 1.3
Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2006–2041 — Reference scenario
Part B: Projections
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3b Growth
No.
Growth
%
2016–17 13,982,984 148,988 96,214 52,774 111,866 18,077 75,001 168,790 77,503 52,504 24,999 193,789 246,562 1.8
2017–18 14,229,546 153,180 98,005 55,175 113,837 18,331 39,999 135,505 74,378 55,622 18,756 154,261 209,428 1.5
2018–19 14,438,974 156,483 99,767 56,716 115,512 18,581 29,169 126,100 71,251 58,752 12,499 138,599 195,312 1.4
2019–20 14,634,286 159,336 101,504 57,832 117,073 18,825 18,332 116,580 68,123 61,872 6,251 122,831 180,670 1.2
2020–21 14,814,956 161,712 103,222 58,490 118,521 19,051 7,496 106,966 65,003 65,000 3 106,969 165,466 1.1
2021–22 14,980,422 163,630 104,922 58,708 119,844 19,274 7,501 108,071 65,003 64,998 5 108,076 166,781 1.1
2022–23 15,147,203 165,376 106,641 58,735 121,178 19,479 7,502 109,201 65,003 65,000 3 109,204 167,941 1.1
2023–24 15,315,144 166,784 108,400 58,384 122,520 19,671 7,500 110,349 65,003 65,001 2 110,351 168,735 1.1
2024–25 15,483,879 167,923 110,216 57,707 123,870 19,852 7,499 111,517 65,003 65,002 1 111,518 169,229 1.1
2025–26 15,653,108 168,752 112,103 56,649 125,225 20,017 7,501 112,709 65,003 64,998 5 112,714 169,355 1.1
2026–27 15,822,463 169,261 114,074 55,187 126,580 20,170 7,500 113,910 65,003 65,004 -1 113,909 169,092 1.1
2027–28 15,991,555 169,494 116,138 53,356 127,934 20,320 7,499 115,113 65,003 64,998 5 115,118 168,466 1.1
2028–29 16,160,021 169,481 118,293 51,188 129,279 20,460 7,503 116,322 65,003 64,999 4 116,326 167,507 1.0
2029–30 16,327,528 169,284 120,557 48,727 130,619 20,592 7,495 117,522 65,003 64,999 4 117,526 166,260 1.0
2030–31 16,493,788 169,005 122,938 46,067 131,947 20,717 7,501 118,731 65,003 64,998 5 118,736 164,803 1.0
2031–32 16,658,591 168,743 125,432 43,311 133,271 20,832 7,499 119,938 65,003 65,003 0 119,938 163,244 1.0
2032–33 16,821,835 168,483 128,047 40,436 134,575 20,944 7,501 121,132 65,003 65,000 3 121,135 161,565 1.0
2033–34 16,983,400 168,313 130,781 37,532 135,871 21,040 7,499 122,330 65,003 64,999 4 122,334 159,858 0.9
2034–35 17,143,258 168,296 133,647 34,649 137,145 21,131 7,502 123,516 65,003 65,003 0 123,516 158,169 0.9
2035–36 17,301,427 168,480 136,595 31,885 138,413 21,220 7,502 124,695 65,003 65,002 1 124,696 156,578 0.9
2036–37 17,458,005 168,880 139,636 29,244 139,664 21,303 7,499 125,860 65,003 64,997 6 125,866 155,097 0.9
2037–38 17,613,102 169,503 142,743 26,760 140,910 21,384 7,496 127,022 65,003 64,999 4 127,026 153,782 0.9
2038–39 17,766,884 170,321 145,880 24,441 142,135 21,473 7,504 128,166 65,003 64,998 5 128,171 152,605 0.9
2039–40 17,919,489 171,322 149,036 22,286 143,356 21,567 7,502 129,291 65,003 64,999 4 129,295 151,584 0.8
2040–41 18,071,073 172,486 152,161 20,325 144,570 21,668 7,499 130,401 65,003 64,997 6 130,407 150,727 0.8
2041 18,221,800

Low scenario

Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2006–2041 — Low scenario
Part A: Estimates
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3c Growth
No.
Growth
%
2006–07 12,661,566 136,980 86,811 50,169 115,445 20,218 2,043 97,270 58,791 78,838 -20,047 52,460 102,629 0.8
2007–08 12,764,195 140,547 87,502 53,045 115,051 20,796 10,712 104,967 61,718 76,468 -14,750 65,385 118,430 0.9
2008–09 12,882,625 140,326 88,359 51,967 105,423 18,425 16,461 103,459 57,458 73,059 -15,601 63,095 115,062 0.9
2009–10 12,997,687 139,771 87,602 52,169 116,572 14,735 12,795 114,632 59,741 64,403 -4,662 85,207 137,376 1.1
2010–11 13,135,063 139,448 90,857 48,591 105,015 14,539 14,657 105,133 58,317 62,324 -4,007 79,890 128,481 1.0
2011–12 13,263,544 140,999 88,466 52,533 101,287 17,288 24,237 108,236 60,459 71,070 -10,611 97,625 150,158 1.1
2012–13 13,413,702 142,367 92,472 49,895 105,910 16,565 17,188 106,533 54,678 68,579 -13,901 92,632 142,527 1.1
2013–14 13,556,229 144,051 95,894 48,157 101,913 17,777 11,213 95,349 57,415 71,979 -14,564 80,785 128,942 1.0
2014–15 13,685,171 145,513 99,231 46,282 89,704 17,977 2,553 74,280 62,874 71,569 -8,695 65,585 111,867 0.8
2015–16 13,797,038 147,244 102,701 44,543 119,647 18,078 33,680 135,249 71,104 64,950 6,154 141,403 185,946 1.3
Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2006–2041 — Low scenario
Part B: Projections
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3d Growth
No.
Growth
%
2016–17 13,982,984 144,176 102,099 42,077 97,878 23,777 56,250 130,351 71,303 58,801 12,502 142,853 184,929 1.3
2017–18 14,167,913 146,120 103,885 42,235 98,586 24,008 30,000 104,578 69,702 60,300 9,402 113,980 156,212 1.1
2018–19 14,324,125 147,369 105,653 41,716 99,073 24,228 21,875 96,720 68,100 61,901 6,199 102,919 144,636 1.0
2019–20 14,468,761 148,252 107,399 40,853 99,474 24,435 13,750 88,789 65,598 64,402 1,196 89,985 130,837 0.9
2020–21 14,599,598 148,724 109,134 39,590 99,762 24,621 2,500 77,641 62,500 67,503 -5,003 72,638 112,242 0.8
2021–22 14,711,840 148,656 110,856 37,800 99,919 24,786 2,500 77,633 62,500 67,503 -5,003 72,630 110,436 0.8
2022–23 14,822,276 148,365 112,595 35,770 100,053 24,935 2,500 77,618 62,500 67,499 -4,999 72,619 108,391 0.7
2023–24 14,930,667 147,845 114,387 33,458 100,158 25,058 2,500 77,600 62,500 67,497 -4,997 72,603 106,060 0.7
2024–25 15,036,727 147,073 116,236 30,837 100,246 25,162 2,500 77,584 62,500 67,503 -5,003 72,581 103,421 0.7
2025–26 15,140,148 146,045 118,153 27,892 100,301 25,243 2,500 77,558 62,500 67,503 -5,003 72,555 100,452 0.7
2026–27 15,240,600 144,778 120,185 24,593 100,332 25,306 2,500 77,526 62,500 67,501 -5,001 72,525 97,118 0.6
2027–28 15,337,718 143,292 122,288 21,004 100,335 25,366 2,500 77,469 62,500 67,500 -5,000 72,469 93,478 0.6
2028–29 15,431,196 141,637 124,497 17,140 100,303 25,400 2,500 77,403 62,500 67,498 -4,998 72,405 89,536 0.6
2029–30 15,520,732 139,864 126,827 13,037 100,240 25,429 2,500 77,311 62,500 67,499 -4,999 72,312 85,351 0.5
2030–31 15,606,083 138,041 129,258 8,783 100,139 25,442 2,500 77,197 62,500 67,502 -5,002 72,195 80,975 0.5
2031–32 15,687,058 136,231 131,778 4,453 100,002 25,455 2,500 77,047 62,500 67,495 -4,995 72,052 76,495 0.5
2032–33 15,763,553 134,496 134,414 82 99,832 25,458 2,500 76,874 62,500 67,499 -4,999 71,875 71,966 0.5
2033–34 15,835,519 132,892 137,145 -4,253 99,631 25,443 2,500 76,688 62,500 67,502 -5,002 71,686 67,434 0.4
2034–35 15,902,953 131,445 139,968 -8,523 99,394 25,424 2,500 76,470 62,500 67,502 -5,002 71,468 62,943 0.4
2035–36 15,965,896 130,173 142,859 -12,686 99,119 25,397 2,500 76,222 62,500 67,501 -5,001 71,221 58,547 0.4
2036–37 16,024,443 129,077 145,805 -16,728 98,817 25,363 2,500 75,954 62,500 67,498 -4,998 70,956 54,223 0.3
2037–38 16,078,666 128,139 148,778 -20,639 98,481 25,328 2,500 75,653 62,500 67,498 -4,998 70,655 50,015 0.3
2038–39 16,128,681 127,336 151,756 -24,420 98,117 25,296 2,500 75,321 62,500 67,501 -5,001 70,320 45,902 0.3
2039–40 16,174,583 126,644 154,691 -28,047 97,723 25,266 2,500 74,957 62,500 67,501 -5,001 69,956 41,911 0.3
2040–41 16,216,494 126,026 157,578 -31,552 97,299 25,240 2,500 74,559 62,500 67,500 -5,000 69,559 38,006 0.2
2041 16,254,500

High scenario

Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2006–2041 — High scenario
Part A: Estimates
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3e Growth
No.
Growth
%
2006–07 12,661,566 136,980 86,811 50,169 115,445 20,218 2,043 97,270 58,791 78,838 -20,047 52,460 102,629 0.8
2007–08 12,764,195 140,547 87,502 53,045 115,051 20,796 10,712 104,967 61,718 76,468 -14,750 65,385 118,430 0.9
2008–09 12,882,625 140,326 88,359 51,967 105,423 18,425 16,461 103,459 57,458 73,059 -15,601 63,095 115,062 0.9
2009–10 12,997,687 139,771 87,602 52,169 116,572 14,735 12,795 114,632 59,741 64,403 -4,662 85,207 137,376 1.1
2010–11 13,135,063 139,448 90,857 48,591 105,015 14,539 14,657 105,133 58,317 62,324 -4,007 79,890 128,481 1.0
2011–12 13,263,544 140,999 88,466 52,533 101,287 17,288 24,237 108,236 60,459 71,070 -10,611 97,625 150,158 1.1
2012–13 13,413,702 142,367 92,472 49,895 105,910 16,565 17,188 106,533 54,678 68,579 -13,901 92,632 142,527 1.1
2013–14 13,556,229 144,051 95,894 48,157 101,913 17,777 11,213 95,349 57,415 71,979 -14,564 80,785 128,942 1.0
2014–15 13,685,171 145,513 99,231 46,282 89,704 17,977 2,553 74,280 62,874 71,569 -8,695 65,585 111,867 0.8
2015–16 13,797,038 147,244 102,701 44,543 119,647 18,078 33,680 135,249 71,104 64,950 6,154 141,403 185,946 1.3
Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2006–2041 — High scenario
Part B: Projections
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3f Growth
No.
Growth
%
2016–17 13,982,984 153,800 90,445 63,355 125,846 12,336 93,750 207,260 83,801 46,300 37,501 244,761 308,114 2.2
2017–18 14,291,098 160,161 92,061 68,100 129,216 12,570 50,000 166,646 79,099 50,902 28,197 194,843 262,933 1.8
2018–19 14,554,031 165,437 93,663 71,774 132,200 12,806 36,460 155,854 74,399 55,596 18,803 174,657 246,426 1.7
2019–20 14,800,457 170,203 95,236 74,967 135,058 13,029 22,920 144,949 70,600 59,403 11,197 156,146 231,106 1.6
2020–21 15,031,563 174,432 96,790 77,642 137,793 13,253 12,500 137,040 67,499 62,498 5,001 142,041 219,679 1.5
2021–22 15,251,242 178,156 98,337 79,819 140,434 13,472 12,500 139,462 67,499 62,500 4,999 144,461 224,286 1.5
2022–23 15,475,528 181,677 99,894 81,783 143,146 13,683 12,500 141,963 67,499 62,499 5,000 146,963 228,746 1.5
2023–24 15,704,274 184,967 101,509 83,458 145,915 13,888 12,500 144,527 67,499 62,498 5,001 149,528 232,993 1.5
2024–25 15,937,267 187,981 103,159 84,822 148,746 14,087 12,500 147,159 67,499 62,500 4,999 152,158 236,982 1.5
2025–26 16,174,249 190,690 104,899 85,791 151,636 14,271 12,500 149,865 67,499 62,501 4,998 154,863 240,654 1.5
2026–27 16,414,903 193,097 106,717 86,380 154,573 14,456 12,500 152,617 67,499 62,499 5,000 157,617 244,000 1.5
2027–28 16,658,903 195,226 108,613 86,613 157,569 14,634 12,500 155,435 67,499 62,497 5,002 160,437 247,040 1.5
2028–29 16,905,943 197,120 110,627 86,493 160,604 14,809 12,500 158,295 67,499 62,499 5,000 163,295 249,798 1.5
2029–30 17,155,741 198,830 112,744 86,086 163,694 14,981 12,500 161,213 67,499 62,501 4,998 166,211 252,303 1.5
2030–31 17,408,044 200,453 114,997 85,456 166,829 15,143 12,500 164,186 67,499 62,500 4,999 169,185 254,638 1.5
2031–32 17,662,682 202,072 117,372 84,700 170,004 15,307 12,500 167,197 67,499 62,501 4,998 172,195 256,901 1.5
2032–33 17,919,583 203,802 119,878 83,924 173,225 15,461 12,500 170,264 67,499 62,500 4,999 175,263 259,180 1.4
2033–34 18,178,763 205,730 122,531 83,199 176,487 15,610 12,500 173,377 67,499 62,503 4,996 178,373 261,575 1.4
2034–35 18,440,338 207,917 125,307 82,610 179,793 15,756 12,500 176,537 67,499 62,499 5,000 181,537 264,143 1.4
2035–36 18,704,481 210,415 128,229 82,186 183,146 15,901 12,500 179,745 67,499 62,501 4,998 184,743 266,937 1.4
2036–37 18,971,418 213,252 131,257 81,995 186,554 16,036 12,500 183,018 67,499 62,500 4,999 188,017 270,009 1.4
2037–38 19,241,427 216,431 134,378 82,053 190,007 16,178 12,500 186,329 67,499 62,499 5,000 191,329 273,382 1.4
2038–39 19,514,809 219,946 137,574 82,372 193,519 16,326 12,500 189,693 67,499 62,500 4,999 194,692 277,064 1.4
2039–40 19,791,873 223,790 140,830 82,960 197,094 16,486 12,500 193,108 67,499 62,502 4,997 198,105 281,062 1.4
2040–41 20,072,935 227,945 144,126 83,819 200,728 16,655 12,500 196,573 67,499 62,499 5,000 201,573 285,395 1.4
2041 20,358,330

Sources: Statistics Canada estimates, 2006–2016, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.

Notes:

1. Population age structure is for the beginning of each Census year, i.e., July 1.

2. For 2016–17, population and age structure are Statistics Canada estimates for July 1, 2016.

3. [3a], [3b], [3c], [3d], [3e], [3f] For historical components of demographic growth, Statistics Canada's residual deviation is included in net migration.

LIST OF TABLES