Ontario population and selected characteristics, 2001–2036 (reference, low and high scenarios)

Ontario Population Projections Update, 2010-2036
Table 3
Ontario population and selected characteristics, 2001-2036 REFERENCE SCENARIO
Year Total population Births Deaths Net migration Annual growth Median age Age group share (%)
  (Thousands) (Per cent) (Years) 0-14 15-64 65+
Estimates                  
2001-02 11,896.7 128.9 81.0 156.4 1.6 36.7 19.4 68.1 12.5
2002-03 12,091.0 129.3 83.4 115.4 1.3 37.1 19.1 68.3 12.6
2003-04 12,242.3 132.9 84.2 109.7 1.2 37.5 18.8 68.5 12.7
2004-05 12,390.6 132.8 85.3 100.4 1.1 37.8 18.5 68.7 12.8
2005-06 12,528.5 133.8 83.8 95.6 1.1 38.1 18.1 69.0 12.9
2006-07 12,665.3 137.0 86.8 77.4 1.0 38.4 17.8 69.1 13.1
2007-08 12,792.9 139.0 88.9 89.2 1.1 38.7 17.5 69.3 13.2
2008-09 12,932.3 140.4 91.8 84.0 1.0 38.9 17.2 69.3 13.5
2009-10 13,064.9 141.8 94.9 98.8 1.1 39.2 16.9 69.4 13.7
Projections                  
2010-112 13,210.7 144.3 91.3 106.9 1.2 39.4 16.7 69.4 13.9
2011-12 13,370.6 147.0 92.9 108.2 1.2 39.6 16.5 69.4 14.1
2012-13 13,532.9 149.8 94.4 109.5 1.2 39.8 16.4 69.1 14.6
2013-14 13,697.7 152.6 96.0 108.2 1.2 40.0 16.3 68.8 15.0
2014-15 13,862.6 155.5 97.5 107.0 1.2 40.1 16.3 68.4 15.3
2015-16 14,027.6 158.3 99.0 108.3 1.2 40.2 16.2 68.1 15.6
2016-17 14,195.1 161.0 100.4 109.5 1.2 40.3 16.2 67.8 16.0
2017-18 14,365.1 163.6 101.9 110.8 1.2 40.5 16.3 67.4 16.3
2018-19 14,537.6 166.0 103.4 112.0 1.2 40.5 16.3 67.0 16.7
2019-20 14,712.2 168.4 104.9 113.3 1.2 40.6 16.3 66.5 17.1
2020-21 14,889.0 170.5 106.5 114.5 1.2 40.7 16.4 66.1 17.5
2021-22 15,067.5 172.3 108.1 115.8 1.2 40.8 16.4 65.6 18.0
2022-23 15,247.5 173.6 109.7 117.1 1.2 41.0 16.5 65.1 18.4
2023-24 15,428.6 174.6 111.4 118.4 1.2 41.1 16.5 64.6 18.8
2024-25 15,610.2 175.3 113.2 119.7 1.2 41.2 16.6 64.2 19.3
2025-26 15,792.0 175.7 115.1 121.1 1.2 41.4 16.6 63.7 19.7
2026-27 15,973.7 175.8 117.0 122.4 1.1 41.5 16.6 63.2 20.2
2027-28 16,154.9 175.8 119.1 123.8 1.1 41.7 16.7 62.7 20.7
2028-29 16,335.4 175.7 121.2 125.1 1.1 41.8 16.6 62.2 21.2
2029-30 16,515.0 175.6 123.4 126.5 1.1 42.0 16.6 61.8 21.6
2030-31 16,693.7 175.5 125.8 127.9 1.1 42.1 16.6 61.4 22.0
2031-32 16,871.3 175.6 128.2 129.3 1.0 42.3 16.5 61.1 22.4
2032-33 17,048.1 175.9 130.7 130.7 1.0 42.5 16.5 61.0 22.6
2033-34 17,224.0 176.4 133.3 132.2 1.0 42.7 16.4 60.8 22.8
2034-35 17,399.3 177.2 136.0 133.6 1.0 42.8 16.3 60.7 23.0
2035-36 17,574.2 178.3 138.6 135.1 1.0 43.0 16.2 60.6 23.2
2036 17,748.8 - - - - 43.1 16.1 60.5 23.4
Sources: Statistics Canada estimates, 2001-2010, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.
Notes:
1. Population and age structure are for the beginning of each Census year, i.e., July 1.
2. For 2010-11, population and age structure are Statistics Canada estimates for July 1, 2010.
3. Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.


Ontario Population Projections Update, 2010-2036
Table 3 Continued
Ontario population and selected characteristics, 2001-2036 LOW SCENARIO
Year Total population Births Deaths Net migration Annual growth Median age Age group share (%)
  (Thousands) (Per cent) (Years) 0-14 15-64 65+
Estimates                  
2001-02 11,896.7 128.9 81.0 156.4 1.6 36.7 19.4 68.1 12.5
2002-03 12,091.0 129.3 83.4 115.4 1.3 37.1 19.1 68.3 12.6
2003-04 12,242.3 132.9 84.2 109.7 1.2 37.5 18.8 68.5 12.7
2004-05 12,390.6 132.8 85.3 100.4 1.1 37.8 18.5 68.7 12.8
2005-06 12,528.5 133.8 83.8 95.6 1.1 38.1 18.1 69.0 12.9
2006-07 12,665.3 137.0 86.8 77.4 1.0 38.4 17.8 69.1 13.1
2007-08 12,792.9 139.0 88.9 89.2 1.1 38.7 17.5 69.3 13.2
2008-09 12,932.3 140.4 91.8 84.0 1.0 38.9 17.2 69.3 13.5
2009-10 13,064.9 141.8 94.9 98.8 1.1 39.2 16.9 69.4 13.7
Projections                  
2010-112 13,210.7 139.8 96.4 83.2 1.0 39.4 16.7 69.4 13.9
2011-12 13,337.3 140.8 97.9 79.2 0.9 39.7 16.5 69.4 14.1
2012-13 13,459.4 141.7 99.4 75.0 0.9 39.9 16.3 69.1 14.6
2013-14 13,576.7 142.6 100.9 68.2 0.8 40.1 16.2 68.8 15.0
2014-15 13,686.5 143.4 102.4 61.2 0.7 40.2 16.1 68.5 15.3
2015-16 13,788.7 144.0 103.8 61.7 0.7 40.4 16.0 68.2 15.7
2016-17 13,890.6 144.5 105.2 62.3 0.7 40.6 16.0 67.9 16.1
2017-18 13,992.1 144.8 106.7 62.8 0.7 40.8 15.9 67.6 16.5
2018-19 14,093.0 145.1 108.1 63.3 0.7 41.0 15.9 67.2 16.9
2019-20 14,193.3 145.1 109.6 63.7 0.7 41.1 15.8 66.8 17.3
2020-21 14,292.5 145.0 111.2 64.2 0.7 41.3 15.8 66.4 17.8
2021-22 14,390.5 144.6 112.7 64.6 0.7 41.5 15.7 66.0 18.3
2022-23 14,487.0 144.0 114.3 65.1 0.7 41.7 15.7 65.6 18.8
2023-24 14,581.7 143.1 116.0 65.5 0.6 41.9 15.6 65.1 19.3
2024-25 14,674.3 142.0 117.8 66.0 0.6 42.1 15.5 64.7 19.8
2025-26 14,764.5 140.8 119.6 66.4 0.6 42.3 15.4 64.2 20.3
2026-27 14,852.1 139.4 121.6 66.9 0.6 42.5 15.3 63.8 20.9
2027-28 14,936.8 138.0 123.6 67.3 0.5 42.7 15.3 63.3 21.4
2028-29 15,018.5 136.4 125.7 67.8 0.5 42.9 15.2 62.8 22.0
2029-30 15,097.0 134.9 127.9 68.2 0.5 43.2 15.0 62.4 22.6
2030-31 15,172.2 133.5 130.2 68.7 0.5 43.4 14.9 62.0 23.1
2031-32 15,244.2 132.2 132.5 69.1 0.5 43.6 14.8 61.7 23.5
2032-33 15,313.0 131.0 135.0 69.6 0.4 43.9 14.7 61.5 23.8
2033-34 15,378.7 130.0 137.4 70.1 0.4 44.1 14.5 61.4 24.1
2034-35 15,441.3 129.1 139.9 70.6 0.4 44.4 14.4 61.2 24.4
2035-36 15,501.1 128.4 142.4 71.0 0.4 44.6 14.2 61.1 24.7
2036 15,558.1 - - - - 44.8 14.1 61.0 24.9
Sources: Statistics Canada estimates, 2001-2010, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.
Notes:
1. Population and age structure are for the beginning of each Census year, i.e., July 1.
2. For 2010-11, population and age structure are Statistics Canada estimates for July 1, 2010.
3. Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.


Ontario Population Projections Update, 2010-2036
Table 3 Continued
Ontario population and selected characteristics, 2001-2036 HIGH SCENARIO
Year Total population Births Deaths Net migration Annual growth Median age Age group share (%)
  (Thousands) (Per cent) (Years) 0-14 15-64 65+
Estimates                  
2001-02 11,896.7 128.9 81.0 156.4 1.6 36.7 19.4 68.1 12.5
2002-03 12,091.0 129.3 83.4 115.4 1.3 37.1 19.1 68.3 12.6
2003-04 12,242.3 132.9 84.2 109.7 1.2 37.5 18.8 68.5 12.7
2004-05 12,390.6 132.8 85.3 100.4 1.1 37.8 18.5 68.7 12.8
2005-06 12,528.5 133.8 83.8 95.6 1.1 38.1 18.1 69.0 12.9
2006-07 12,665.3 137.0 86.8 77.4 1.0 38.4 17.8 69.1 13.1
2007-08 12,792.9 139.0 88.9 89.2 1.1 38.7 17.5 69.3 13.2
2008-09 12,932.3 140.4 91.8 84.0 1.0 38.9 17.2 69.3 13.5
2009-10 13,064.9 141.8 94.9 98.8 1.1 39.2 16.9 69.4 13.7
Projections                  
2010-112 13,210.7 148.9 86.6 140.6 1.5 39.4 16.7 69.4 13.9
2011-12 13,413.6 153.0 88.3 143.6 1.6 39.6 16.5 69.3 14.1
2012-13 13,622.0 157.3 89.9 146.9 1.6 39.7 16.4 69.0 14.5
2013-14 13,836.2 161.8 91.6 150.3 1.6 39.8 16.4 68.7 14.9
2014-15 14,056.7 166.4 93.3 154.0 1.6 39.9 16.4 68.4 15.2
2015-16 14,283.7 171.0 94.9 156.2 1.6 40.0 16.4 68.0 15.6
2016-17 14,516.0 175.7 96.6 158.5 1.6 40.1 16.5 67.7 15.9
2017-18 14,753.7 180.3 98.2 160.9 1.6 40.1 16.6 67.3 16.2
2018-19 14,996.7 184.8 99.7 163.2 1.7 40.1 16.7 66.8 16.5
2019-20 15,245.0 189.0 101.2 165.6 1.7 40.2 16.8 66.4 16.9
2020-21 15,498.4 193.1 102.8 168.1 1.7 40.2 16.9 65.9 17.3
2021-22 15,756.9 196.9 104.3 170.6 1.7 40.3 17.0 65.4 17.6
2022-23 16,020.0 200.4 105.9 173.2 1.7 40.3 17.1 64.9 18.0
2023-24 16,287.6 203.6 107.6 175.8 1.7 40.4 17.3 64.4 18.4
2024-25 16,559.4 206.6 109.4 178.4 1.7 40.5 17.4 63.9 18.7
2025-26 16,835.1 209.3 111.2 181.2 1.7 40.6 17.5 63.3 19.1
2026-27 17,114.4 211.8 113.1 183.9 1.7 40.7 17.6 62.8 19.5
2027-28 17,397.0 214.2 115.1 186.7 1.6 40.8 17.7 62.4 19.9
2028-29 17,682.8 216.5 117.2 189.6 1.6 40.9 17.8 61.9 20.3
2029-30 17,971.7 218.9 119.4 192.4 1.6 41.0 17.8 61.5 20.7
2030-31 18,263.7 221.5 121.8 195.4 1.6 41.1 17.9 61.1 21.1
2031-32 18,558.7 224.2 124.2 198.4 1.6 41.2 17.9 60.8 21.3
2032-33 18,857.0 227.2 126.8 201.4 1.6 41.3 17.9 60.7 21.5
2033-34 19,158.9 230.6 129.4 204.5 1.6 41.4 17.9 60.5 21.6
2034-35 19,464.5 234.3 132.2 207.7 1.6 41.5 17.8 60.4 21.7
2035-36 19,774.4 238.5 135.0 210.9 1.6 41.5 17.8 60.3 21.9
2036 20,088.8 - - - - 41.6 17.8 60.2 22.0
Sources: Statistics Canada estimates, 2001-2010, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.
Notes:
1. Population and age structure are for the beginning of each Census year, i.e., July 1.
2. For 2010-11, population and age structure are Statistics Canada estimates for July 1, 2010.
3. Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.

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