Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years – reference scenario

Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years – reference scenario
Greater Toronto Area (GTA)
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division Historical
2006
Historical
2011
Historical
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Greater Toronto Area (GTA) 5,795.8 6,254.6 6,625.7 6,737.2 7,289.5 7,843.3 8,397.0 8,938.2 9,465.3
Toronto 2,609.2 2,704.6 2,826.5 2,870.4 3,070.8 3,255.4 3,430.0 3,592.4 3,742.8
Durham 584.3 626.8 661.2 669.7 715.8 767.6 823.3 880.4 938.9
Halton 457.7 517.2 559.2 570.4 630.8 696.7 766.8 839.5 914.8
Peel 1,212.8 1,340.5 1,438.8 1,466.7 1,602.5 1,736.3 1,869.3 1,998.7 2,124.1
York 931.8 1,065.5 1,140.0 1,159.9 1,269.7 1,387.3 1,507.6 1,627.1 1,744.7
Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years – reference scenario
Central (Excluding GTA)
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division Historical
2006
Historical
2011
Historical
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Central (Excluding GTA) 2,790.2 2,862.1 2,957.5 2,986.8 3,132.4 3,279.5 3,423.9 3,559.5 3,687.2
Brant 135.9 139.9 144.2 145.6 152.4 159.2 165.7 171.8 177.7
Dufferin 56.5 58.5 62.0 62.8 66.6 70.6 74.9 78.9 82.9
Haldimand-Norfolk 112.4 111.8 111.7 111.7 112.0 112.4 112.8 112.8 112.6
Haliburton 16.6 17.4 18.0 18.2 19.0 19.8 20.6 21.4 22.2
Hamilton 523.6 535.6 556.4 562.5 592.1 621.9 651.6 680.0 706.9
Muskoka 59.6 61.1 62.7 63.2 65.3 67.5 69.7 71.6 73.5
Niagara 442.4 442.8 449.1 451.7 464.5 477.6 490.5 502.2 512.8
Northumberland 83.5 84.1 86.2 86.9 90.2 93.3 96.2 98.6 100.7
Peterborough 137.6 138.5 139.9 140.6 144.4 148.3 151.9 154.9 157.6
Simcoe 438.3 458.9 486.1 493.4 529.1 565.0 600.5 634.3 666.6
Kawartha Lakes 76.9 74.9 75.8 76.2 78.3 80.5 82.5 84.1 85.5
Waterloo 498.5 523.8 542.5 548.5 579.6 611.0 641.9 671.3 699.4
Wellington 208.4 214.7 222.9 225.4 238.9 252.4 265.3 277.5 288.8
Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years – reference scenario
Eastern
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division Historical
2006
Historical
2011
Historical
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Eastern 1,668.2 1,750.0 1,800.3 1,818.9 1,910.7 2,000.1 2,084.9 2,161.4 2,231.5
Ottawa 845.9 912.2 956.7 971.7 1,045.0 1,116.8 1,187.5 1,254.0 1,317.1
Frontenac 149.3 154.3 158.1 159.6 166.9 173.6 179.6 184.9 189.7
Hastings 136.6 138.4 138.3 138.5 139.0 139.4 139.5 139.1 138.5
Lanark 65.9 67.3 68.1 68.3 69.7 71.3 72.8 74.0 75.0
Leeds & Grenville 102.4 101.8 101.2 101.3 102.5 103.9 104.9 105.5 105.6
Lennox & Addington 41.9 42.9 43.9 44.2 45.5 46.7 47.6 48.2 48.6
Prescott & Russell 83.2 87.8 89.7 90.4 94.4 98.4 101.7 104.3 106.3
Prince Edward 26.2 25.8 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.3
Renfrew 101.1 104.1 104.4 104.8 106.8 108.3 109.4 109.9 110.2
Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry 115.6 115.6 114.8 115.0 115.6 116.1 116.0 115.3 114.2
Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years – reference scenario
Southwestern
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division Historical
2006
Historical
2011
Historical
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Southwestern 1,590.7 1,589.2 1,610.7 1,619.0 1,658.2 1,695.6 1,729.9 1,759.3 1,785.0
Bruce 67.4 67.8 68.1 68.4 69.7 70.8 71.5 72.0 72.3
Elgin 88.6 89.8 90.7 91.0 92.8 94.8 96.5 97.9 99.1
Essex 408.8 399.7 403.6 405.2 411.8 418.1 424.3 429.7 434.2
Grey 95.4 94.8 95.1 95.4 97.4 99.5 101.5 103.1 104.5
Huron 61.3 60.5 58.6 58.3 57.1 56.3 55.4 54.5 53.7
Chatham-Kent 112.4 106.7 105.7 105.6 104.6 103.7 102.8 101.8 100.7
Lambton 132.6 131.4 129.5 129.4 129.1 128.7 128.1 127.1 126.0
Middlesex 440.7 452.8 469.3 474.5 498.9 522.1 544.4 564.9 584.2
Oxford 106.5 108.7 111.9 112.8 116.9 120.5 123.4 125.7 127.3
Perth 77.1 77.1 78.2 78.5 79.9 81.1 82.0 82.6 83.0
Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years – reference scenario
Northeastern
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division Historical
2006
Historical
2011
Historical
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Northeastern 571.6 567.1 558.8 558.3 555.9 552.9 548.8 543.5 537.8
Algoma 121.2 119.3 116.1 115.6 113.5 111.4 109.3 107.0 104.8
Cochrane 86.9 83.3 81.4 81.2 79.9 78.6 77.2 75.8 74.4
Manitoulin 13.0 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.4
Nipissing 87.4 87.6 87.6 87.8 88.8 89.5 89.9 90.1 90.2
Parry Sound 42.4 43.2 42.6 42.6 43.0 43.3 43.5 43.5 43.5
Greater Sudbury 163.8 164.9 164.4 164.7 165.6 165.9 165.7 165.0 164.0
Sudbury 22.5 21.6 20.4 20.2 19.4 18.7 18.0 17.3 16.6
Timiskaming 34.3 33.9 32.9 32.8 32.4 32.0 31.7 31.3 31.0
Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years – reference scenario
Northwestern
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division Historical
2006
Historical
2011
Historical
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Northwestern 245.0 240.5 239.1 239.6 241.8 243.1 243.6 243.2 242.1
Kenora 68.6 69.6 70.3 70.7 71.9 72.8 73.5 74.1 74.6
Rainy River 22.3 20.9 20.0 20.0 19.5 19.1 18.6 18.1 17.5
Thunder Bay 154.1 150.0 148.7 149.0 150.3 151.2 151.5 151.1 150.0
Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years – reference scenario
Total for Ontario
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division Historical
2006
Historical
2011
Historical
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Ontario 12,661.6 13,263.5 13,792.1 13,959.9 14,788.5 15,614.4 16,428.0 17,205.2 17,948.9

Sources: Statistics Canada estimates, 2006-2015, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.

Notes:

1. Year as of July 1.

2. Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.

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