Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 5: Historical and projected share of Ontario population by census division, selected years – reference scenario

Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 5: Historical and projected share of Ontario population by census division, selected years – reference scenario
Greater Toronto Area (GTA)
(Per cent)
Region & Census Division Historical
2006
Historical
2011
Historical
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Greater Toronto Area (GTA) 45.8 47.2 48.0 48.3 49.3 50.2 51.1 52.0 52.7
Toronto 20.6 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.8 20.8 20.9 20.9 20.9
Durham 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2
Halton 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1
Peel 9.6 10.1 10.4 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.8
York 7.4 8.0 8.3 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.5 9.7
Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 5: Historical and projected share of Ontario population by census division, selected years – reference scenario
Central (Excluding GTA)
(Per cent)
Region & Census Division Historical
2006
Historical
2011
Historical
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Central (Excluding GTA) 22.0 21.6 21.4 21.4 21.2 21.0 20.8 20.7 20.5
Brant 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Dufferin 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Haldimand-Norfolk 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6
Haliburton 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Hamilton 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9
Muskoka 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Niagara 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9
Northumberland 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Peterborough 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Simcoe 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7
Kawartha Lakes 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Waterloo 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
Wellington 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 5: Historical and projected share of Ontario population by census division, selected years – reference scenario
Eastern
(Per cent)
Region & Census Division Historical
2006
Historical
2011
Historical
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Eastern 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.4
Ottawa 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3
Frontenac 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Hastings 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8
Lanark 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Leeds & Grenville 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Lennox & Addington 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Prescott & Russell 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Prince Edward 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Renfrew 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6
Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 5: Historical and projected share of Ontario population by census division, selected years – reference scenario
Southwestern
(Per cent)
Region & Census Division Historical
2006
Historical
2011
Historical
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Southwestern 12.6 12.0 11.7 11.6 11.2 10.9 10.5 10.2 9.9
Bruce 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Elgin 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Essex 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4
Grey 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Huron 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Chatham-Kent 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Lambton 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
Middlesex 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
Oxford 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
Perth 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 5: Historical and projected share of Ontario population by census division, selected years – reference scenario
Northeastern
(Per cent)
Region & Census Division Historical
2006
Historical
2011
Historical
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Northeastern 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.0
Algoma 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
Cochrane 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
Manitoulin 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Nipissing 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
Parry Sound 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Greater Sudbury 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9
Sudbury 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Timiskaming 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 5: Historical and projected share of Ontario population by census division, selected years – reference scenario
Northwestern
(Per cent)
Region & Census Division Historical
2006
Historical
2011
Historical
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Northwestern 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3
Kenora 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Rainy River 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Thunder Bay 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8
Ontario Population Projections Update, 2015–2041
Table 5: Historical and projected share of Ontario population by census division, selected years – reference scenario
Total for Ontario
(Per cent)
Region & Census Division Historical
2006
Historical
2011
Historical
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Ontario 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Sources: Statistics Canada estimates, 2006-2015, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.

Notes:

1. Year as of July 1.

2. Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.

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