Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of First Quarter 2011

June 22, 2011

Population Growth

Population Growth, Ontario, 1st Quarter, 2011
(Thousands)
Population, January 1, 2011
13,282.4 
Plus Births
33.9
Minus Deaths
27.0
Plus Immigrants
20.1
Minus Net Emigrants
4.3
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents
6.4
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals
15.8
Minus Interprovincial Departures
16.5
Population, April 1, 2011
13,310.9 
Source: Statistics Canada
Line graph: Net International Migration, by Province, 1990 to 2010

Ontario's population reached 13,310,859 on April 1, 2011, with growth of 28,415 people in the first quarter of 2011. This compares to growth of 32,011 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Births and Deaths

Births and deaths increased by 1.1 per cent and 3.4 per cent, respectively, from the same quarter of 2010.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 6,908 in the quarter, down from 7,426 in the same quarter of 2010.

International Migration

Immigration to Ontario was 20,119 in the quarter, a decrease of 17.8 per cent from the level of 24,483 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 40.6 per cent of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, down from 42.2 per cent in the same quarter of 2010. Over the last 12 months Ontario received 113,773 immigrants, up from 110,386 during the previous year.

There were 4,343 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, essentially unchanged from 4,402 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 45.5 per cent of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) increased by 6,421 to 246,176 in the first quarter.

In summary, net international migration was 22,197 in the first quarter, down from 26,654 in the same quarter of 2010.

Interprovincial Migration

In the first quarter of 2011, Ontario had a net loss of 690 people to other provinces compared to a net loss of 2,069 people in the same quarter of 2010. Ontario experienced net losses in its exchanges with eight of the 12 other provinces and territories, with the largest net losses to Alberta (991) and Newfoundland and Labrador (390). Ontario's largest net gains were with Quebec (1,001). Over the last 12 months, Ontario's total net interprovincial migration loss was 3,164, compared to a 7,792 loss during the previous year.

Year-Over-Year Growth

Over the last 12 months, Ontario's population grew by 149,676 or 1.1 per cent, higher than growth of 141,247 during the previous year. Among the provinces, Prince Edward Island and Alberta had the highest population growth rates (1.5 per cent). Canada's population growth rate over the period was 1.1 per cent.

For more information contact Alex Munger (416) 325-0102.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet1

  Intercensal Estimates Postcensal Estimates1 MOF Projections2
  1991 1996 2001 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
POPULATION (000s)                            
Canada 28,037 29,610 31,019 32,576 32,930 33,316 33,720 34,109 34,532 36,494 38,406 40,288 42,094 43,822
Ontario 10,431 11,083 11,897 12,665 12,793 12,932 13,065 13,211 13,371 14,195 15,068 15,974 16,871 17,749
Ontario as % of Canada 37.2 37.4 38.4 38.9 38.8 38.8 38.7 38.7 38.7 38.9 39.2 39.6 40.1 40.5
Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate
(Over previous year shown) 		2.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%)                            
0-4 7.0 6.8 5.9 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.1
5-14 13.2 13.5 13.5 12.3 12.0 11.8 11.5 11.3 11.1 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.0
15-24 14.5 13.2 13.4 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6 12.4 11.4 11.1 11.2 11.5
25-44 34.3 32.9 31.5 29.4 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.5 26.9 26.0 25.0
45-64 19.6 21.3 23.2 25.9 26.5 27.0 27.5 27.9 28.1 27.9 26.7 25.1 24.0 24.0
65-74 7.0 7.3 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.5 9.0 10.2 11.0 11.7 11.0
75+ 4.6 5.0 5.6 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 7.0 7.8 9.2 10.7 12.3
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%)                            
0-14 20.2 20.3 19.4 17.8 17.5 17.2 16.9 16.7 16.5 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.5 16.1
15-64 68.3 67.4 68.1 69.1 69.3 69.3 69.4 69.4 69.4 67.8 65.6 63.2 61.1 60.5
65+ 11.5 12.2 12.5 13.1 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 16.0 18.0 20.2 22.4 23.4
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS                            
Total Dependency Ratio (%)3 62.6 64.1 63.1 60.6 60.3 60.0 59.8 59.3 59.1 61.2 66.2 73.1 79.8 82.3
Median Age (yrs.) 33.3 35.0 36.7 38.4 38.7 38.9 39.2 39.4 39.6 40.3 40.8 41.5 42.3 43.1
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) 26-45 31-50 36-55 41-60 42-61 43-62 44-63 45-64 46-65 51-70 56-75 61-80 66-85 71-90
Total Fertility Rate4 1.66 1.61 1.53 1.55 1.57 1.58 n.a. n.a. 1.59 1.62 1.64 1.66 1.66 1.66
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)4 80.8 81.3 82.1 83.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 84.0 84.8 85.6 86.3 87.1 87.8
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)4 75.0 75.9 77.5 78.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 79.9 81.2 82.2 83.3 84.3 85.3
Families (000s)5 2,727 2,933 3,191 3,422 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Households (000s)5 3,638 3,925 4,219 4,555 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%)                            
GTA 42.0 43.0 44.5 45.8 46.1 46.5 46.8 47.1 47.4 48.5 49.4 50.3 51.1 51.8
Central 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.0 21.9 21.8 21.8 21.6 21.6 21.4 21.2 21.1 21.0 21.0
Eastern 13.9 13.8 13.5 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.4
Southwestern 13.7 13.4 13.0 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.2 12.1 12.0 11.6 11.2 10.8 10.5 10.2
Northeastern 5.8 5.4 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2
Northwestern 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3

COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)6 - Year Beginning July 1st
Period Population,
Beginning
of Period 		Total
Change 		Births Deaths Natural
Increase		 International Migration Interprovincial Migration
Immig. Net
Emig 		Net
NPRs 		Net In Out Net
Five-Year                        
1991-96 10,431 652 738 381 357 632 123 -115 394 338 378 -40
1996-2001 11,083 814 659 403 256 584 124 41 501 371 303 69
2001-06 11,897 769 658 418 240 653 90 43 607 307 336 -30
Annual                        
2006-07 12,665 128 137 87 50 115 20 2 97 59 79 -20
2007-08 12,793 139 139 89 50 115 21 10 104 62 76 -15
2008-09 12,932 133 140 92 49 105 22 16 100 57 73 -16
2009-10 13,065 146 142 95 47 117 22 12 106 74 82 -7
1. Statistics Canadas population estimates, components of change and age groups are 2006 Census-based adjusted for net undercoverage.
2. Except for Canada, all projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2011). Projections for Canada are from Statistics Canada (based on the 2006 Census).
3. Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0-19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
4. Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates for years after 2005 represent three-year averages (e.g., 2006 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2005-2007).
5. Families and households are Census data.
6. In the Components of Change table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs).
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada. June 22, 2011

Office of Economic Policy
Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch

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