June 23, 2009
Population Growth
| Population Growth, Ontario, 1st Quarter, 2009 | |
| (Thousands) Population, January 1, 2009 |
12,986.9 |
|---|---|
| Plus Births | 32.2 |
| Minus Deaths |
24.2 |
| Plus Immigrants |
21.3 |
| Minus Net Emigrants |
4.6 |
| Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents |
7.5 |
| Plus Interprovincial Arrivals |
16.8 |
| Minus Interprovincial Departures |
21.8 |
| Population, April 1, 2009 |
13,014.0 |
| Source: Statistics Canada | |
Ontario’s population reached 13,014,018 on April 1, 2009, with growth of 27,161 people in the first quarter. This compares with growth of 29,898 in the same quarter of 2008.
Births and Deaths
Births remained essentially unchanged, while deaths were 4.1 per cent higher compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 7,990 in the quarter, down from 8,960 in the same quarter of 2008.
International Migration
Immigration to Ontario was 21,257 in the quarter, a decrease of 9.5 per cent from the level of 23,491 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 41.9 per cent of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, down from 44.2 per cent in the same quarter of 2008.
There were 4,619 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, essentially unchanged from 4,596 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 48 per cent of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.
The number of non‑permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) increased by 7,548 to 216,300 in the first quarter.
Net international migration was 24,186 in the first quarter, down from 24,958 in the same quarter 2008.
Interprovincial Migration
In the first quarter of 2009, Ontario had a net loss of 5,015 people to other provinces compared to a net loss of 4,020 people in the same quarter of 2008. Ontario experienced net losses in its exchanges with nine of the other 12 provinces and territories, but mainly with Alberta (3,546).
Year-Over-Year Growth
Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s population grew by 131,899 or 1.0 per cent, the same rate of growth observed over the previous year. Ontario’s population grew slower than that of Alberta (2.7%), BC (1.7%), Saskatchewan (1.5%) and Manitoba (1.2%) over the past year. Canada’s population growth rate was 1.2 per cent.
Contact Paul Lewis (416 325-0821) / Alex Munger (416-325-0102)
Ontario Demographic Factsheet1
| Intercensal Estimates | Postcensal Estimates1 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | |
| POPULATION (000s) | ||||||
| Canada | 28,037 | 29,610 | 31,019 | 32,576 | 32,927 | 33,311 |
| Ontario | 10,431 | 11,083 | 11,897 | 12,665 | 12,794 | 12,929 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 37.2 | 37.4 | 38.4 | 38.9 | 38.9 | 38.8 |
| Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate (Over previous year shown) |
1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | |
| AGE DISTRIBUTION (%) | ||||||
| 0-4 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
| 5-14 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 11.8 |
| 15-24 | 14.5 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 |
| 25-44 | 34.3 | 32.9 | 31.5 | 29.4 | 29.0 | 28.6 |
| 45-64 | 19.6 | 21.3 | 23.2 | 25.9 | 26.5 | 27.0 |
| 65-74 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.1 |
| 75+ | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.4 |
| SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%) | ||||||
| 0-14 | 20.2 | 20.3 | 19.4 | 17.8 | 17.5 | 17.2 |
| 15-64 | 68.3 | 67.4 | 68.1 | 69.1 | 69.3 | 69.4 |
| 65+ | 11.5 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 13.5 |
| OTHER CHARACTERISTICS | ||||||
| Total Dependency Ratio (%)3 | 62.6 | 64.1 | 63.1 | 60.6 | 60.3 | 60.0 |
| Median Age (yrs.) | 33.3 | 35.0 | 36.7 | 38.4 | 38.7 | 39.0 |
| Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) | 26-45 | 31-50 | 36-55 | 41-60 | 42-61 | 43-62 |
| Total Fertility Rate 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | n.a. | n.a. |
| Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4 | 80.8 | 81.3 | 82.2 | 83.2 | n.a. | n.a. |
| Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4 | 75.0 | 75.9 | 77.5 | 78.9 | n.a. | n.a. |
| Families (000s)5 | 2,727 | 2,933 | 3,191 | 3,422 | n.a. | n.a. |
| Households (000s)5 | 3,638 | 3,925 | 4,219 | 4,555 | n.a. | n.a. |
| REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%) | ||||||
| GTA | 42.0 | 43.0 | 44.6 | 45.8 | 46.1 | 46.5 |
| Central | 22.2 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.0 | 21.9 | 21.8 |
| Eastern | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 13.1 |
| Southwestern | 13.7 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 12.3 |
| Northeastern | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| Northwestern | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| MOF Projections2 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | |
| POPULATION (000s) | |||||
| Canada | 33,910 | 35,267 | 36,609 | 37,883 | 39,029 |
| Ontario | 13,349 | 14,150 | 14,937 | 15,688 | 16,366 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 39.4 | 40.1 | 40.8 | 41.4 | 41.9 |
| Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate (Over previous year shown) |
1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| AGE DISTRIBUTION (%) | |||||
| 0-4 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| 5-14 | 11.2 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.6 |
| 15-24 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 11.6 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| 25-44 | 28.1 | 27.7 | 27.7 | 27.2 | 26.2 |
| 45-64 | 28.1 | 28.1 | 27.5 | 26.4 | 25.4 |
| 65-74 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 10.1 | 11.0 | 11.9 |
| 75+ | 6.5 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 10.0 |
| SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%) | |||||
| 0-14 | 16.4 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.7 | 15.5 |
| 15-64 | 69.6 | 68.5 | 66.8 | 64.6 | 62.7 |
| 65+ | 14.0 | 15.6 | 17.5 | 19.7 | 21.9 |
| OTHER CHARACTERISTICS | |||||
| Total Dependency Ratio (%)3 | 58.7 | 59.8 | 63.0 | 68.8 | 74.7 |
| Median Age (yrs.) | |||||
| Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) | 46-65 | 51-70 | 56-75 | 61-80 | 66-85 |
| Total Fertility Rate 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4 | 83.2 | 83.6 | 84.1 | 84.5 | 85.0 |
| Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4 | 79.4 | 80.2 | 80.9 | 81.7 | 82.5 |
| Families (000s)5 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Households (000s)5 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%) | |||||
| GTA | 47.7 | 48.7 | 49.5 | 50.2 | 50.8 |
| Central | 21.5 | 21.4 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.2 |
| Eastern | 12.8 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 12.3 | 12.2 |
| Southwestern | 12.1 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 11.2 | 11.0 |
| Northeastern | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.4 |
| Northwestern | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| COMPONENTS OF CHANGE6 (000s)6 – Year Beginning July 1st | |||||
| Period | Population, Beginning of Period |
Total Change |
Births | Deaths | Natural Increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year | |||||
| 1991-96 | 10,431 | 652 | 738 | 381 | 357 |
| 1996-2001 | 11,083 | 814 | 659 | 403 | 256 |
| 2001-06 | 11,897 | 769 | 658 | 418 | 240 |
| Annual | |||||
| 2006-07 | 12,665 | 128 | 136 | 86 | 50 |
| 2007-08 | 12,794 | 135 | 136 | 89 | 48 |
| COMPONENTS OF CHANGE6 (000s)6 – Year Beginning July 1st | |||||||
| Period | International Migration | Interprovincial Migration | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Immig. | Net Emig |
Net NPRs |
Net | In | Out | Net | |
| Five-Year | |||||||
| 1991-96 | 632 | 123 | -115 | 394 | 338 | 378 | -40 |
| 1996-2001 | 584 | 124 | 41 | 501 | 371 | 303 | 69 |
| 2001-06 | 653 | 90 | 43 | 607 | 307 | 336 | -30 |
| Annual | |||||||
| 2006-07 | 115 | 19 | 2 | 98 | 59 | 79 | -20 |
| 2007-08 | 115 | 21 | 10 | 104 | 79 | 95 | -17 |
| "1. Statistics Canadas population estimates, components of change and age groups are 2006 Census-based adjusted for net undercoverage (parts of the table shaded). The rest of the table (e.g., historical regional population) is still 2001 Census-based. These will be updated as 2006 Census-based information becomes available. | |||||||
| 2. Except for Canada, all projections are produced by Ontario Ministry of Finance, 2007-2031 (Spring 2008 Update). Projections for Canada are Statistics Canada. | |||||||
| 3. Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0-19 and 65+ (elderly) to the population aged 20-64. | |||||||
| 4. Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. | |||||||
| 5. Families and households are Census data. | |||||||
| 6. In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Note: All population figures are for July 1st. |
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| Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance. | |||||||