Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of First Quarter 2016

June 16, 2016

Population Growth

Population Growth, Ontario,
1st Quarter, 2016

(Thousands)
Population, January 1, 2016
13,873.9
Plus Births 34.4
Minus Deaths 28.2
Plus Immigrants 31.9
Minus Emigrants* 5.2
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents 12.7
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals 16.6
Minus Interprovincial Departures 15.5
Population, April 1, 2016 13,920.5
* Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants
minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.

Ontario’s population reached 13,920,499 on April 1, 2016, with an increase of 46,566 people in the first quarter of 2016. This compares to an increase of 16,961 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Births and Deaths

Births increased by 1.2% and deaths increased by 3.4%, from the same quarter of 2015.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 6,108 in the quarter, down from 6,632 in the same quarter of 2015.

International Migration

Immigration to Ontario was 31,913 in the quarter, up 61.4% from the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 37.0% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, down from 38.7% in the same quarter of 2015.

There were 5,216 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, similar to the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 41.2% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) increased by 12,660 to 331,325 in the
first quarter.

In summary, there was a net international migration gain of 39,357 in the first quarter, up from a net gain of 13,555 in the same quarter of 2015.

Interprovincial Migration

In the first quarter of 2016, Ontario had a net inflow of 1,101 people from other provinces and territories compared to a net outflow of 3,226 people in the same quarter of 2015. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with eight of the 12 other provinces and territories, with the largest net gains from Quebec (773) and Alberta (664). Ontario’s largest net outflows were with British Columbia (-1,130) and the Northwest Territories (-39). Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration gain was 1,247 compared to a net loss of 13,566 during the previous year.

Year-Over-Year Growth

Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s population grew by 168,408 or 1.2%, higher than growth of 113,959 during the previous year. Among the provinces, Alberta and Manitoba had the highest population growth rates (1.8% and 1.5% respectively). Canada’s population growth rate over the period was 1.1%.

For more information contact Alex Munger (416) 325-0102.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet

POPULATION (000s) - Estimates1
  2001 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Canada 31,021 32,571 34,343 34,751 35,155 35,544 35,852
Ontario 11,897 12,662 13,264 13,410 13,551 13,678 13,792
Ontario as % of Canada 38.4 38.9 38.6 38.6 38.5 38.5 38.5
Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate
(Over previous year shown)
1.4 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8
POPULATION (000s) - MOF Projections2
  2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Canada 36,229 37,998 39,727 41,373 42,903 44,353
Ontario 13,960 14,788 15,614 16,428 17,205 17,949
Ontario as % of Canada 38.5 38.9 39.3 39.7 40.1 40.5
Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate
(Over previous year shown)
1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%) - Estimates3
  2001 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0–4 5.9 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2
5–14 13.5 12.3 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.7
15–24 13.4 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.2
25–44 31.6 29.4 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.7
45–64 23.2 26.0 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1
65–74 7.0 6.9 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.0
75+ 5.5 6.2 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.1
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%) - MOF Projections4
  2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0–4 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.8
5–14 10.6 10.4 10.4 10.6 10.4 10.1
15–24 13.0 11.7 11.2 11.1 11.2 11.5
25–44 26.7 27.0 26.7 25.8 24.8 23.9
45–64 28.0 26.8 25.1 23.8 23.9 24.4
65–74 9.2 10.5 11.5 12.1 11.4 10.3
75+ 7.2 8.2 9.8 11.5 13.4 15.0
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%) - Estimates5
  2001 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0–14 19.4 17.8 16.6 16.4 16.2 16.0 15.9
15–64 68.1 69.2 69.1 68.9 68.6 68.4 68.1
65+ 12.5 13.0 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.0
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%) - MOF Projections6
  2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0–14 15.8 15.8 15.7 15.7 15.3 14.9
15–64 67.7 65.6 63.0 60.7 59.9 59.8
65+ 16.4 18.7 21.3 23.6 24.7 25.3
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS - Estimates7
  2001 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Dependency Ratio (%)8 63.0 60.6 60.3 60.6 60.9 61.2 61.5
Median Age (yrs.) 36.7 38.4 39.8 40.0 40.2 40.4 40.6
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) 36-55 41-60 46-65 47-66 48-67 49-68 50-69
Total Fertility Rate9 1.53 1.55 1.55 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)10 82.1 83.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)11 77.5 78.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Families (000s)12 3,191 3,422 3,612 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Households (000s)13 4,219 4,555 4,888 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS - MOF Projections14
  2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Total Dependency Ratio (%)15 61.8 66.4 73.7 80.5 83.7 84.2
Median Age (yrs.) 40.8 41.4 42.2 43.0 44.0 44.8
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) 51-70 56-75 61-80 66-85 71-90 76-95
Total Fertility Rate16 1.57 1.58 1.59 1.60 1.60 1.60
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)17 84.9 85.7 86.5 87.3 88.0 88.7
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)18 81.2 82.4 83.5 84.6 85.6 86.6
Families (000s)19  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.
Households (000s)20  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%) - Estimates21
  2001 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GTA 44.5 45.8 47.2 47.4 47.7 47.9 48.0
Central 22.1 22.0 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.4
Eastern 13.5 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1
Southwestern 13.0 12.6 12 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.7
Northeastern 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1
Northwestern 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%) - MOF Projections22
  2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
GTA 48.3 49.3 50.2 51.1 52.0 52.7
Central 21.4 21.2 21.0 20.8 20.7 20.5
Eastern 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.4
Southwestern 11.6 11.2 10.9 10.5 10.2 9.9
Northeastern 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.0
Northwestern 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)23 – Year Beginning July 1st
Period Population,
Beginning of Period
Total Change Births Deaths Natural Increase
2001–06 11,897 764 658 418 240
2006–11 12,662 602 697 441 256
2011–12 13,264 146 140 90 50
2012–13 13,410 141 141 93 48
2013–14 13,551 127 143 97 46
2014–15 13,678 114 144 100 44
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)24 – Year Beginning July 1st
Migration - International Migration
Period Immigration Net Emigration Net NPRs Net
2001–06 653 118 44 579
2006–11 558 89 57 525
2011–12 101 17 23 107
2012–13 106 16 17 108
2013–14 102 16 9 95
2014–15 89 16 6 79
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)25 – Year Beginning July 1st
Migration - Interprovincial Migration
Period In Out Net
2001–06 307 336 -30
2006–11 296 355 -59
2011–12 60 71 -11
2012–13 55 69 -14
2013–14 57 72 -15
2014–15 62 70 -9

[1], [3], [5], [7], [21] Statistics Canada’s population estimates, based on the 2011 Census.

[2], [4], [6], [14], [22] Except for Canada, projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2016). Projections for Canada are from Statistics Canada (based on 2011 Census).

[8], [15] Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.

[9], [10], [11], [16], [17], [18] Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates for years after 2006 represent three-year averages (e.g., 2006 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2005-2007).

[12], [13], [19], [20] Families and households are Census data.

[23], [24], [25] In the “Components of Change” table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.

Note: All population figures are for July 1st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

June 16, 2016

Office of Economic Policy
Economic Policy Branch

Accessible Image Description:

This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the first quarter of 2016 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2011-2015). In the first quarter of 2016, births, deaths immigration and the net change in non-permanent residents were all significantly higher than the average of first quarters of the previous five years. Emigration and net interprovincial migration were also slightly higher.

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