Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of Second Quarter 2012

September 27, 2012

Population Growth

Ontario's population reached 13,505,900 on July 1, 2012, with growth of 41,430 people in the second quarter of 2012. This compares to growth of 41,859 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Births and Deaths

Births and deaths increased by 1.2% and 3.2%, respectively, from the same quarter of 2011.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 11,858 in the quarter, down slightly from 12,188 in the same quarter of 2011.

International Migration

Immigration to Ontario was 27,651 in the quarter, up 3.5% from the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 37.9% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, down from 39.5% in the same quarter of 2011. Over the last 12 months Ontario received 101,179 immigrants, down from 105,015 during the previous year.

There were 3,313 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, little changed from 3,306 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 42.6% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) increased by 9,598 to 277,705 in the second quarter.

In summary, net international migration was 33,936 in the second quarter, up from 31,615 in the same quarter of 2011.

Interprovincial Migration

In the second quarter of 2012, Ontario had a net loss of 4,364 people to other provinces compared to a net loss of 1,944 people in the same quarter of 2011. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with five of the 12 other provinces and territories, with the largest net gains from Quebec (1,006) and the Northwest Territories (114). Ontario's largest net losses were with Alberta (-3,685) and Saskatchewan (-843). Over the last 12 months, Ontario's total net interprovincial migration loss was 8,091 compared to a 4,007 loss during the previous year.

Year-Over-Year Growth

Over the last 12 months, Ontario's population grew by 139,606 or 1.0%, lower than growth of 142,505 during the previous year. Among the provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan had the highest population growth rates (2.5% and 2.1% respectively). Canada's population growth rate over the period was 1.1%.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet¹

	Intercensal Estimates		Postcensal Estimates1							MOF Projections2
	1996	2001	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2016	2021	2026	2031	2036
POPULATION (000s)
Canada	29,610	31,019	32,576	32,928	33,318	33,727	34,127	34,484	34,880	36,494	38,406	40,288	42,094	43,822
Ontario	11,083	11,897	12,665	12,791	12,932	13,069	13,224	13,366	13,506	14,165	15,031	15,946	16,856	17,747
Ontario as % of Canada	37.4	38.4	38.9	38.8	38.8	38.7	38.7	38.8	38.7	38.8	39.1	39.6	40.0	40.5
Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate	1.2	1.4	1.3	1.0	1.1	1.1	1.2	1.1	1.0	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.1	1.0
(Over previous year shown)
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%)
0-4	6.8	5.9	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.4	5.4	5.3	5.3	5.5	5.6	5.6	5.3	5.1
5-14	13.5	13.5	12.3	12.0	11.8	11.5	11.3	11.1	11.0	10.7	10.7	11.0	11.1	10.9
15-24	13.2	13.4	13.8	13.8	13.8	13.7	13.7	13.6	13.5	12.5	11.5	11.2	11.2	11.5
25-44	32.9	31.5	29.4	29.0	28.5	28.1	27.8	27.6	27.5	27.3	27.4	26.9	25.9	25.0
45-64	21.3	23.2	25.9	26.5	27.0	27.5	27.9	28.1	28.1	27.9	26.7	25.0	23.8	23.9
65-74	7.3	7.0	6.9	6.9	7.0	7.2	7.3	7.5	7.9	9.0	10.2	11.1	11.7	11.1
75+	5.0	5.6	6.2	6.3	6.4	6.5	6.6	6.7	6.7	7.1	7.9	9.3	10.8	12.5
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%)
0-14	20.3	19.4	17.8	17.5	17.2	17.0	16.7	16.5	16.3	16.2	16.3	16.5	16.4	16.0
15-64	67.4	68.1	69.1	69.3	69.3	69.3	69.4	69.3	69.1	67.7	65.5	63.1	61.0	60.4
65+	12.2	12.5	13.1	13.2	13.5	13.7	13.9	14.2	14.6	16.1	18.1	20.4	22.6	23.6
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS
Total Dependency Ratio (%)3	64.1	63.1	60.6	60.3	60.1	59.8	59.4	59.2	59.5	61.3	66.4	73.4	80.2	82.7
Median Age (yrs.)	35.0	36.7	38.4	38.7	38.9	39.2	39.4	39.7	39.8	40.4	40.9	41.6	42.4	43.2
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.)	31-50	36-55	41-60	42-61	43-62	44-63	45-64	46-65	47-66	51-70	56-75	61-80	66-85	71-90
Total Fertility Rate 4	1.61	1.53	1.55	1.57	1.58	1.56	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	1.62	1.64	1.66	1.66	1.66
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4	81.3	82.1	83.1	83.4	83.6	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	84.9	85.7	86.4	87.1	87.8
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4	75.9	77.5	78.8	79.0	79.2	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	81.3	82.4	83.4	84.4	85.3
Families (000s)5	2,933	3,191	3,422	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	3,612	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Households (000s)5	3,925	4,219	4,555	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	4,888	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%)
GTA	43.0	44.5	45.8	46.1	46.5	46.8	47.1	47.3	47.5	48.2	49.1	50.0	50.8	51.6
Central	22.1	22.1	22.0	21.9	21.8	21.8	21.7	21.6	21.6	21.5	21.3	21.1	21.0	20.9
Eastern	13.8	13.5	13.2	13.1	13.1	13.1	13.0	13.0	13.0	13.0	12.9	12.9	12.8	12.7
Southwestern	13.4	13.0	12.6	12.5	12.3	12.2	12.1	12.0	11.9	11.6	11.3	10.9	10.6	10.3
Northeastern	5.4	4.8	4.5	4.5	4.4	4.3	4.3	4.2	4.2	4.0	3.8	3.6	3.4	3.2
Northwestern	2.3	2.1	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.8	1.8	1.8	1.8	1.7	1.6	1.5	1.4	1.4

COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)6 – Year Beginning July 1st
	Population, Beginning of Period	Total Change	Births	Deaths	Natural Increase	International Migration				Interprovincial Migration
Period						Immig.	Net Emig	Net NPRs	Net	In	Out	Net
Five-Year
1996-2001	11,083	814	659	403	256	584	124	41	501	371	303	69
2001-06	11,897	769	658	418	240	653	90	43	607	307	336	-30
Annual
2006-07	12,665	126	137	87	50	115	22	2	96	59	79	-20
2007-08	12,791	141	141	88	53	115	23	11	103	62	76	-15
2008-09	12,932	136	140	88	52	105	22	17	100	57	73	-16
2009-10	13,068	155	140	90	50	117	20	13	110	60	64	-5
2010-11	13,224	143	140	93	47	105	20	15	99	58	62	-4
2011-12	13,366	140	142	96	46	101	21	22	102	70	78	-8
1. Statistics Canada's population estimates, components of change and age groups are 2006 Census-based adjusted for net undercoverage.
2. Except for Canada, all projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2012). Projections for Canada are from Statistics Canada (based on the 2006 Census).
3. Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0-19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
4. Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates for years after 2005 represent three-year averages (e.g., 2008 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2007-2009).
5. Families and households are Census data.
6. In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants,net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs).
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.									September 27, 2012

Office of Economic Policy
Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch