Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of the Second Quarter 2009

September 29 , 2009

Population Growth

Ontario’s population reached 13,069,182 on July 1, 2009, with growth of 44,692 people in the second quarter. This compares to growth of 48,184 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Births and Deaths

Births and deaths increased by 1.0 per cent and 3.3 per cent, respectively, from the same quarter of 2008.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 12,685 in the quarter, down from 13,081 in the same quarter of 2008. On an annual basis (July 1, 2008 to June 30, 2009), natural increase was 48,103, down 3.5 per cent from 49,844 in the previous year.

International Migration

Immigration to Ontario was 30,109 in the quarter, a decline of 5.9 per cent from the level of 32,002 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 43.2 per cent of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, down from 46.2 per cent in the same quarter of 2008.
On an annual basis, Ontario received 107,047 immigrants in 2008-09, down from 115,050 in 2007-08.

There were 4,171 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, essentially unchanged from 4,151 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 49.7 per cent of all emigration from Canada in the quarter. On an annual basis, the flow of emigrants stood at 18,948 in 2008-09, up from 18,867 in 2007-08.

The number of non‑permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs - i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) increased by 10,075 to 226,524 in the second quarter.

In summary, net international migration was 36,013 in the second quarter, down from 38,605 in the same quarter of the previous year. On an annual basis, net international migration was 103,521 in 2008-09, down from 106,513 in 2007-08.

Interprovincial Migration

In the second quarter of 2009, Ontario had a net loss of 4,006 people to other provinces compared to a net loss of 3,502 people in the same quarter of 2008. Ontario experienced net losses in its exchanges with 7 of the 12 other provinces and territories with the largest net loss to Alberta (3,653). On an annual basis, the net loss was 18,738 in 2008-09, compared to a 14,750 loss in 2007-08.

Year-Over-Year Growth

Over the Census year ending June 30, 2009, Ontario’s population grew by 132,886 or 1.0 per cent, down from 141,607 or 1.1 per cent in the previous year. Among the provinces, Alberta has the highest growth rate (2.6 per cent). Canada’s population growth rate for the Census year was 1.2 per cent.

Contact Paul Lewis (416 325-0821) / Edisa Kozo (416-326-7062)

Ontario Demographic Factsheet¹

	Intercensal Estimates			Postcensal Estimates1				MOF Projections2
	1991	1996	2001	2006	2007	2008	2009	2011	2016	2021	2026	2031
POPULATION (000s)
Canada	28,037	29,610	31,019	32,576	32,932	33,327	33,740	33,910	35,267	36,609	37,883	39,029
Ontario	10,431	11,083	11,897	12,665	12,795	12,936	13,069	13,349	14,150	14,937	15,688	16,366
Ontario as % of Canada	37.2	37.4	38.4	38.9	38.9	38.8	38.7	39.4	40.1	40.8	41.4	41.9
Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate	2.0	1.2	1.4	1.3	1.0	1.1	1.0	1.1	1.2	1.1	1.0	0.8
(Over previous year shown)
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%)
0-4	7.0	6.8	5.9	5.5	5.4	5.4	n.a.	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.1	4.9
5-14	13.2	13.5	13.5	12.3	12.0	11.8	n.a.	11.2	10.6	10.5	10.6	10.6
15-24	14.5	13.2	13.4	13.8	13.8	13.8	n.a.	13.4	12.7	11.6	11.0	11.0
25-44	34.3	32.9	31.5	29.4	29.0	28.6	n.a.	28.1	27.7	27.7	27.2	26.2
45-64	19.6	21.3	23.2	25.9	26.5	27.0	n.a.	28.1	28.1	27.5	26.4	25.4
65-74	7.0	7.3	7.0	6.9	6.9	7.1	n.a.	7.4	8.9	10.1	11.0	11.9
75+	4.6	5.0	5.6	6.2	6.3	6.4	n.a.	6.5	6.8	7.4	8.7	10.0
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%)
0-14	20.2	20.3	19.4	17.8	17.5	17.2	n.a.	16.4	15.8	15.8	15.7	15.5
15-64	68.3	67.4	68.1	69.1	69.3	69.4	n.a.	69.6	68.5	66.8	64.6	62.7
65+	11.5	12.2	12.5	13.1	13.3	13.5	n.a.	14.0	15.6	17.5	19.7	21.9
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS
Total Dependency Ratio (%)3	62.6	64.1	63.1	60.6	60.3	60.0	n.a.	58.7	59.8	63.0	68.8	74.7
Median Age (yrs.)	33.3	35.0	36.7	38.4	38.7	39.0	n.a.	39.6	40.5	41.3	42.2	43.1
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.)	26-45	31-50	36-55	41-60	42-61	43-62	44-63	46-65	51-70	56-75	61-80	66-85
Total Fertility Rate 4	1.7	1.6	1.5	1.5	1.6	n.a.	n.a.	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4	80.8	81.3	82.2	83.2	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	83.2	83.6	84.1	84.5	85.0
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4	75.0	75.9	77.5	78.9	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	79.4	80.2	80.9	81.7	82.5
Families (000s)5	2,727	2,933	3,191	3,422	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Households (000s)5	3,638	3,925	4,219	4,555	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%)
GTA	42.0	43.0	44.6	45.8	46.1	46.5	n.a.	47.7	48.7	49.5	50.2	50.8
Central	22.2	22.1	22.1	22.0	21.9	21.8	n.a.	21.5	21.4	21.3	21.3	21.2
Eastern	13.9	13.8	13.5	13.2	13.1	13.1	n.a.	12.8	12.6	12.5	12.3	12.2
Southwestern	13.7	13.4	13.0	12.6	12.5	12.3	n.a.	12.1	11.8	11.5	11.2	11.0
Northeastern	5.8	5.4	4.8	4.5	4.5	4.4	n.a.	4.2	3.9	3.7	3.6	3.4
Northwestern	2.4	2.3	2.1	1.9	1.9	1.9	n.a.	1.7	1.6	1.5	1.4	1.4

COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)6 – Year Beginning July 1st
Period	Population, Beginning of Period	Total Change	Births	Deaths	Natural Increase	International Migration				Interprovincial Migration
						Immig.	Net Emig	Net NPRs	Net	In	Out	Net
Five-Year
1991-96	10,431	652	738	381	357	632	123	-115	394	338	378	-40
1996-2001	11,083	814	659	403	256	584	124	41	501	371	303	69
2001-06	11,897	769	658	418	240	653	90	43	607	307	336	-30
Annual
2006-07	12,665	129	137	86	51	115	19	2	99	59	79	-20
2007-08	12,795	142	139	89	50	115	19	10	107	62	76	-15
2008-09	12,936	133	140	92	48	107	19	15	104	75	94	-19
1. Statistics Canada's population estimates, components of change and age groups are 2006 Census-based adjusted for net undercoverage (parts of the table shaded). The rest of the table (e.g. historical regional population) is still 2001 Census-based. These will be updated as 2006 Census-based information becomes available.
2. Except for Canada, all projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2008 Update). Projections for Canada are from Statistics Canada.
3. Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0-19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
4. Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year.
5. Families and households are Census data.
6. In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs).
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

September 29, 2009