Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of Second Quarter 2015

September 29, 2015

Population Growth

Population Growth, Ontario,
2nd Quarter, 2015

(Thousands)
Population, April 1, 2015
13,752.1
Plus Births 36.2
Minus Deaths 24.6
Plus Immigrants 27.3
Minus Net Emigrants 2.8
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents 5.8
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals 23.8
Minus Interprovincial Departures 25.8
Population, July 1, 2015 13,792.1 
* Emigrants plus net change in temporary
emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada
Components of Population Growth 2nd Quarter 2015 and Average for 2010-2014

Ontario’s population reached 13,792,052 on July 1, 2015, with an increase of 39,961 people in the second quarter of 2015. This compares to an increase of 39,555 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Births and Deaths

Births increased by 0.8% and deaths increased by 3.6%, from the same quarter of 2014.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 11,587 in the quarter, down from 12,130 in the same quarter of 2014.

International Migration

Immigration to Ontario was 27,335 in the quarter, down 2.7% from the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 38.5% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, up from 35.9% in the same quarter of 2014. Over the last 12 months Ontario received 89,338 immigrants, down from 101,913 during the previous year.

There were 2,766 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, similar to the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 36.3% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) increased by 5,817 to 312,020 in the
second quarter.

In summary, there was a net international migration gain of 30,386 in the second quarter, down from a gain of 34,240 in the same quarter of 2014.

Interprovincial Migration

In the second quarter of 2015, Ontario had a net outflow of 2,012 people to other provinces and territories compared to a net outflow of 6,815 people in the same quarter of 2014. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with four of the 12 other provinces and territories, with the largest net gains from Quebec (2,764) and Manitoba (221). Ontario’s largest net outflows were with Alberta (-3,439) and British Columbia (-1,260). Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration outflow was 8,763 compared to a net loss of 14,564 during the previous year.

Year-Over-Year Growth

Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s population grew by 114,365 or 0.8%, lower than growth of 126,683 during the previous year. Among the provinces, Alberta and Manitoba had the highest population growth rates (1.8% and 1.0% respectively). Canada’s population growth rate over the period was 0.9%.

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Ontario Demographic Factsheet

  Estimates1 MOF Projections2
  2001 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
POPULATION (000s)                          
Canada 31,021 32,571 34,343 34,751 35,155 35,544 35,852 36,229 37,998 39,727 41,373 42,903 44,353
Ontario 11,897 12,662 13,264 13,410 13,551 13,678 13,792 13,949 14,703 15,503 16,296 17,054 17,780
Ontario as % of Canada 38.4 38.9 38.6 38.6 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.7 39.0 39.4 39.8 40.1
Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate
(Over previous year shown)
1.4 1.3 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%)                          
0-4 5.9 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.8
5-14 13.5 12.3 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.5 10.4 10.5 10.4 10.1
15-24 13.4 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.2 12.9 11.6 11.2 11.1 11.2 11.4
25-44 31.6 29.4 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.8 26.4 25.6 24.7 23.9
45-64 23.2 26.0 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.0 25.2 23.9 23.8 24.3
65-74 7.0 6.9 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.3 10.6 11.6 12.2 11.5 10.4
75+ 5.5 6.2 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.2 8.2 9.8 11.5 13.5 15.1
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%)                          
0-14 19.4 17.8 16.6 16.4 16.2 16.0 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.3 14.9
15-64 68.1 69.2 69.1 68.9 68.6 68.4 68.1 67.6 65.4 62.9 60.6 59.8 59.6
65+ 12.5 13.0 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.5 18.8 21.4 23.8 24.9 25.5
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS                          
Total Dependency Ratio (%)3 63.0 60.6 60.3 60.6 60.9 61.2 61.5 62.1 66.8 74.1 80.9 84.2 84.8
Median Age (yrs.) 36.7 38.4 39.8 40.0 40.2 40.4 40.6 40.9 41.6 42.4 43.2 44.1 44.9
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) 36-55 41-60 46-65 47-66 48-67 49-68 50-69 51-70 56-75 61-80 66-85 71-90 76-95
Total Fertility Rate 4 1.53 1.55 1.55 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.57 1.58 1.59 1.60 1.60 1.60
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4 82.1 83.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 84.9 85.7 86.5 87.3 88.0 88.7
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4 77.5 78.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 81.2 82.4 83.5 84.6 85.6 86.6
Families (000s)5 3,191 3,422 3,612 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Households (000s)5 4,219 4,555 4,888 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%)                          
GTA 44.5 45.8 47.2 47.4 47.7 47.9 n.a. 48.3 49.3 50.3 51.2 52.1 52.9
Central 22.1 22.0 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.4 n.a. 21.3 21.1 20.9 20.7 20.5 20.3
Eastern 13.5 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1 n.a. 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.7
Southwestern 13.0 12.6 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.7 n.a. 11.6 11.1 10.8 10.4 10.1 9.8
Northeastern 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 n.a. 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0
Northwestern 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 n.a. 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)6 – Year Beginning July 1st
Period Population,
Beginning
of Period
Total
Change
Births Deaths Natural
Increase
International Migration     Interprovincial Migration
Immig. Net
Emig
Net
NPRs
Net In Out Net
Five-Year                        
2001-06 11,897 764 658 418 240 653 118 44 579 307 336 -30
2006-11 12,662 602 697 441 256 558 89 57 525 296 355 -59
Annual                        
2011-12 13,264 146 140 90 50 101 17 23 107 60 71 -11
2012-13 13,410 141 141 93 48 106 16 17 108 55 69 -14
2013-14 13,551 127 143 97 46 102 16 9 95 57 72 -15
2014-15 13,678 114 144 100 44 89 16 6 79 62 70 -9
1. Statistics Canada’s population estimates, based on the 2011 Census.
2. Except for Canada, projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Fall 2014). Projections for Canada are from Statistics Canada (based on 2011 Census).
3. Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
4. Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates for years after 2006 represent three-year averages (e.g., 2006 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2005-2007).
5. Families and households are Census data.
6. In the “Components of Change” table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada. September 29, 2015

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