September 28, 2011
Population Growth
Population Growth, Ontario, 2nd Quarter, 2011 |
|
| (Thousands) Population,
April 1, 2011 |
13,330.2 |
|---|---|
| Plus Births | 36.8 |
| Minus Deaths |
24.0 |
| Plus Immigrants |
26.4 |
| Minus Net Emigrants |
2.5 |
| Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents |
7.9 |
| Plus Interprovincial Arrivals |
20.4 |
| Minus Interprovincial Departures |
22.2 |
| Population,
July 1, 2011 |
13,373.0 |
| Source: Statistics Canada | |
Ontario’s population reached 13,372,996 on July 1, 2011, with growth of 42,774 people in the second quarter of 2011. This compares to growth of 53,168 in the same quarter of the previous year.
Births and Deaths
Births and deaths increased by 1.2 per cent and 3.4 per cent, respectively, from the same quarter of 2010.
Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 12,862 in the quarter, down from 13,225 in the same quarter of 2010.
International Migration
Immigration to Ontario was 26,403 in the quarter, a decrease of 25.2 per cent from the level of 35,311 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 39.1 per cent of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, down from 43.7 per cent in the same quarter of 2010. Over the last 12 months Ontario received 104,876 immigrants, down from 116,572 during the previous year.
There were 2,486 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, essentially unchanged from 2,461 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 39.3 per cent of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.
The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) increased by 7,875 to 254,564 in the second quarter.
In summary, net international migration was 31,792 in the second quarter, down from 41,396 in the same quarter of 2010.
Interprovincial Migration
In the second quarter of 2011, Ontario had a net loss of 1,880 people to other provinces compared to a net loss of 1,453 people in the same quarter of 2010. Ontario experienced net losses in its exchanges with seven of the 12 other provinces and territories, with the largest net losses to Alberta (1,780) and British Columbia (493). Ontario’s largest net gains were with Quebec (1,489). Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 2,298, compared to a 4,662 loss during the previous year.
Year-Over-Year Growth
Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s population grew by 145,205 or 1.1 per cent, lower than growth of 155,064 during the previous year. Among the provinces, Prince Edward Island and Alberta had the highest population growth rates (1.7 and 1.6 per cent). Canada’s population growth rate over the period was 1.0 per cent.
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Ontario Demographic Factsheet1
| Intercensal Estimates | Postcensal Estimates1 | MOF Projections2 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | |
| POPULATION (000s) | ||||||||||||||
| Canada | 28,037 | 29,610 | 31,019 | 32,576 | 32,930 | 33,319 | 33,730 | 34,126 | 34,483 | 36,494 | 38,406 | 40,288 | 42,094 | 43,822 |
| Ontario | 10,431 | 11,083 | 11,897 | 12,665 | 12,793 | 12,934 | 13,073 | 13,228 | 13,373 | 14,195 | 15,068 | 15,974 | 16,871 | 17,749 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 37.2 | 37.4 | 38.4 | 38.9 | 38.8 | 38.8 | 38.8 | 38.8 | 38.8 | 38.9 | 39.2 | 39.6 | 40.1 | 40.5 |
| Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate (Over previous year shown) |
2.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| AGE DISTRIBUTION (%) | ||||||||||||||
| 0-4 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.1 |
| 5-14 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 11.0 |
| 15-24 | 14.5 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 11.4 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 11.5 |
| 25-44 | 34.3 | 32.9 | 31.5 | 29.4 | 29.0 | 28.6 | 28.1 | 27.8 | 27.6 | 27.4 | 27.5 | 26.9 | 26.0 | 25.0 |
| 45-64 | 19.6 | 21.3 | 23.2 | 25.9 | 26.5 | 27.0 | 27.5 | 27.9 | 28.1 | 27.9 | 26.7 | 25.1 | 24.0 | 24.0 |
| 65-74 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 11.7 | 11.0 |
| 75+ | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 12.3 |
| SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%) | ||||||||||||||
| 0-14 | 20.2 | 20.3 | 19.4 | 17.8 | 17.5 | 17.2 | 17.0 | 16.7 | 16.5 | 16.2 | 16.4 | 16.6 | 16.5 | 16.1 |
| 15-64 | 68.3 | 67.4 | 68.1 | 69.1 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.4 | 69.3 | 67.8 | 65.6 | 63.2 | 61.1 | 60.5 |
| 65+ | 11.5 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 13.7 | 13.9 | 14.2 | 16.0 | 18.0 | 20.2 | 22.4 | 23.4 |
| OTHER CHARACTERISTICS | ||||||||||||||
| Total Dependency Ratio (%)3 | 62.6 | 64.1 | 63.1 | 60.6 | 60.3 | 60.1 | 59.8 | 59.4 | 59.2 | 61.2 | 66.2 | 73.1 | 79.8 | 82.3 |
| Median Age (yrs.) | 33.3 | 35.0 | 36.7 | 38.4 | 38.7 | 38.9 | 39.2 | 39.4 | 39.6 | 40.3 | 40.8 | 41.5 | 42.3 | 43.1 |
| Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) | 26-45 | 31-50 | 36-55 | 41-60 | 42-61 | 43-62 | 44-63 | 45-64 | 46-65 | 51-70 | 56-75 | 61-80 | 66-85 | 71-90 |
| Total Fertility Rate4 | 1.66 | 1.61 | 1.53 | 1.55 | 1.57 | 1.58 | n.a. | n.a. | 1.59 | 1.62 | 1.64 | 1.66 | 1.66 | 1.66 |
| Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)4 | 80.8 | 81.3 | 82.1 | 83.1 | 83.4 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | 84.0 | 84.8 | 85.6 | 86.3 | 87.1 | 87.8 |
| Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)4 | 75.0 | 75.9 | 77.5 | 78.8 | 79.0 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | 79.9 | 81.2 | 82.2 | 83.3 | 84.3 | 85.3 |
| Families (000s)5 | 2,727 | 2,933 | 3,191 | 3,422 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Households (000s)5 | 3,638 | 3,925 | 4,219 | 4,555 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%) | ||||||||||||||
| GTA | 42.0 | 43.0 | 44.5 | 45.8 | 46.1 | 46.5 | 46.8 | 47.1 | 47.4 | 48.5 | 49.4 | 50.3 | 51.1 | 51.8 |
| Central | 22.2 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.0 | 21.9 | 21.8 | 21.8 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.4 | 21.2 | 21.1 | 21.0 | 21.0 |
| Eastern | 13.9 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 12.4 |
| Southwestern | 13.7 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 12.3 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 11.6 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| Northeastern | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| Northwestern | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Period | Population, Beginning of Period |
Total Change |
Births | Deaths | Natural Increase |
International Migration | Interprovincial Migration | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Immig. | Net Emig |
Net NPRs |
Net | In | Out | Net | ||||||
| Five-Year | ||||||||||||
| 1991-96 | 10,431 | 652 | 738 | 381 | 357 | 632 | 123 | -115 | 394 | 338 | 378 | -40 |
| 1996-2001 | 11,083 | 814 | 659 | 403 | 256 | 584 | 124 | 41 | 501 | 371 | 303 | 69 |
| 2001-06 | 11,897 | 769 | 658 | 418 | 240 | 653 | 90 | 43 | 607 | 307 | 336 | -30 |
| Annual | ||||||||||||
| 2006-07 | 12,665 | 128 | 137 | 87 | 50 | 115 | 20 | 2 | 97 | 59 | 79 | -20 |
| 2007-08 | 12,793 | 142 | 141 | 88 | 53 | 115 | 23 | 11 | 103 | 62 | 76 | -15 |
| 2008-09 | 12,934 | 138 | 141 | 90 | 52 | 105 | 20 | 16 | 102 | 57 | 73 | -16 |
| 2009-10 | 13,073 | 155 | 143 | 92 | 50 | 117 | 20 | 13 | 109 | 60 | 64 | -5 |
| 2010-11 | 13,228 | 145 | 144 | 96 | 49 | 105 | 20 | 14 | 99 | 75 | 77 | -2 |
| 1. Statistics Canada's population estimates, components of change and age groups are 2006 Census-based adjusted for net undercoverage. | ||||||||||||
| 2. Except for Canada, all projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2011). Projections for Canada are from Statistics Canada (based on 2006 Census). | ||||||||||||
| 3. Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64. | ||||||||||||
| 4. Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates for years after 2005 represent three-year averages (e.g., 2007 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2006-2008). | ||||||||||||
| 5. Families and households are Census data. | ||||||||||||
| 6. In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). | ||||||||||||
| Note: All population figures are for July 1st. | ||||||||||||
| Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada. | September 28, 2011 | |||||||||||