December 20 , 2011
Population Growth, Ontario, 3rd Quarter, 2011 |
|
| (Thousands) Population,
July 1, 2011 |
13,373.0 |
|---|---|
| Plus Births | 38.2 |
| Minus Deaths |
22.6 |
| Plus Immigrants |
29.1 |
| Minus Net Emigrants |
8.1 |
| Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents |
12.7 |
| Plus Interprovincial Arrivals |
23.9 |
| Minus Interprovincial Departures |
23.4 |
| Population,
October 1, 2011 |
13,422.9 |
| Source: Statistics Canada | |
Ontario’s population reached 13,422,912 on October 1, 2011, with growth of 49,916 people in the third quarter of 2011. This compares to growth of 57,925 in the same quarter of the previous year.
Births and deaths increased by 1.1 per cent and 3.8 per cent, respectively, from the same quarter of 2010.
Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 15,600 in the quarter, down from 16,032 in the same quarter of 2010.
Immigration to Ontario was 29,091 in the quarter, a decrease of 16.6 per cent from the level of 34,885 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 40.5 per cent of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, down from 41.4 per cent in the same quarter of 2010. Over the last 12 months Ontario received 99,082 immigrants, down from 118,478 during the previous year.
There were 8,067 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, essentially unchanged from 8,006 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 42.0 per cent of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.
The number of non‑permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) increased by 12,749 to 267,313 in the third quarter.
In summary, net international migration was 33,773 in the third quarter, down from 39,810 in the same quarter of 2010.
In the third quarter of 2011, Ontario had a net gain of 543 people from other provinces compared to a net gain of 2,083 people in the same quarter of 2010. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with seven of the 12 other provinces and territories, with the largest net gains from Quebec (905) and British Columbia (450). Ontario’s largest net losses were with Alberta (-1,006) and Newfoundland and Labrador (-202). Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 3,838, compared to a 1,291 loss during the previous year.
Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s population grew by 137,196 or 1.0 per cent, lower than growth of 162,097 during the previous year. Among the provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan had the highest population growth rates (1.7 and 1.5 per cent). Canada’s population growth rate over the period was 1.0 per cent.
For more information contact Alex Munger (416) 325-0102.
| Intercensal Estimates | Postcensal Estimates1 | MOF Projections2 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | |
| POPULATION (000s) | ||||||||||||||
| Canada | 28,037 | 29,610 | 31,019 | 32,576 | 32,930 | 33,319 | 33,730 | 34,126 | 34,483 | 36,494 | 38,406 | 40,288 | 42,094 | 43,822 |
| Ontario | 10,431 | 11,083 | 11,897 | 12,665 | 12,793 | 12,934 | 13,073 | 13,228 | 13,373 | 14,195 | 15,068 | 15,974 | 16,871 | 17,749 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 37.2 | 37.4 | 38.4 | 38.9 | 38.8 | 38.8 | 38.8 | 38.8 | 38.8 | 38.9 | 39.2 | 39.6 | 40.1 | 40.5 |
| Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| (Over previous year shown) | ||||||||||||||
| AGE DISTRIBUTION (%) | ||||||||||||||
| 0-4 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.1 |
| 5-14 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 11.0 |
| 15-24 | 14.5 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 11.4 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 11.5 |
| 25-44 | 34.3 | 32.9 | 31.5 | 29.4 | 29.0 | 28.6 | 28.1 | 27.8 | 27.6 | 27.4 | 27.5 | 26.9 | 26.0 | 25.0 |
| 45-64 | 19.6 | 21.3 | 23.2 | 25.9 | 26.5 | 27.0 | 27.5 | 27.9 | 28.1 | 27.9 | 26.7 | 25.1 | 24.0 | 24.0 |
| 65-74 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 11.7 | 11.0 |
| 75+ | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 12.3 |
| SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%) | ||||||||||||||
| 0-14 | 20.2 | 20.3 | 19.4 | 17.8 | 17.5 | 17.2 | 17.0 | 16.7 | 16.5 | 16.2 | 16.4 | 16.6 | 16.5 | 16.1 |
| 15-64 | 68.3 | 67.4 | 68.1 | 69.1 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.4 | 69.3 | 67.8 | 65.6 | 63.2 | 61.1 | 60.5 |
| 65+ | 11.5 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 13.7 | 13.9 | 14.2 | 16.0 | 18.0 | 20.2 | 22.4 | 23.4 |
| OTHER CHARACTERISTICS | ||||||||||||||
| Total Dependency Ratio (%)3 | 62.6 | 64.1 | 63.1 | 60.6 | 60.3 | 60.1 | 59.8 | 59.4 | 59.2 | 61.2 | 66.2 | 73.1 | 79.8 | 82.3 |
| Median Age (yrs.) | 33.3 | 35.0 | 36.7 | 38.4 | 38.7 | 38.9 | 39.2 | 39.4 | 39.6 | 40.3 | 40.8 | 41.5 | 42.3 | 43.1 |
| Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) | 26-45 | 31-50 | 36-55 | 41-60 | 42-61 | 43-62 | 44-63 | 45-64 | 46-65 | 51-70 | 56-75 | 61-80 | 66-85 | 71-90 |
| Total Fertility Rate4 | 1.66 | 1.61 | 1.53 | 1.55 | 1.57 | 1.58 | n.a. | n.a. | 1.59 | 1.62 | 1.64 | 1.66 | 1.66 | 1.66 |
| Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)4 | 80.8 | 81.3 | 82.1 | 83.1 | 83.4 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | 84.0 | 84.8 | 85.6 | 86.3 | 87.1 | 87.8 |
| Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)4 | 75.0 | 75.9 | 77.5 | 78.8 | 79.0 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | 79.9 | 81.2 | 82.2 | 83.3 | 84.3 | 85.3 |
| Families (000s)5 | 2,727 | 2,933 | 3,191 | 3,422 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Households (000s)5 | 3,638 | 3,925 | 4,219 | 4,555 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%) | ||||||||||||||
| GTA | 42.0 | 43.0 | 44.5 | 45.8 | 46.1 | 46.5 | 46.8 | 47.1 | 47.4 | 48.5 | 49.4 | 50.3 | 51.1 | 51.8 |
| Central | 22.2 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.0 | 21.9 | 21.8 | 21.8 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.4 | 21.2 | 21.1 | 21.0 | 21.0 |
| Eastern | 13.9 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 12.4 |
| Southwestern | 13.7 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 12.3 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 11.6 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| Northeastern | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| Northwestern | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Period | Population, Beginning of Period |
Total Change |
Births | Deaths | Natural Increase |
International Migration | Interprovincial Migration | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Immig. | Net Emig |
Net NPRs |
Net | In | Out | Net | ||||||
| Five-Year | ||||||||||||
| 1991-96 | 10,431 | 652 | 738 | 381 | 357 | 632 | 123 | -115 | 394 | 338 | 378 | -40 |
| 1996-2001 | 11,083 | 814 | 659 | 403 | 256 | 584 | 124 | 41 | 501 | 371 | 303 | 69 |
| 2001-06 | 11,897 | 769 | 658 | 418 | 240 | 653 | 90 | 43 | 607 | 307 | 336 | -30 |
| Annual | ||||||||||||
| 2006-07 | 12,665 | 128 | 137 | 87 | 50 | 115 | 20 | 2 | 97 | 59 | 79 | -20 |
| 2007-08 | 12,793 | 142 | 141 | 88 | 53 | 115 | 23 | 11 | 103 | 62 | 76 | -15 |
| 2008-09 | 12,934 | 138 | 141 | 90 | 52 | 105 | 20 | 16 | 102 | 57 | 73 | -16 |
| 2009-10 | 13,073 | 155 | 143 | 92 | 50 | 117 | 20 | 13 | 109 | 60 | 64 | -5 |
| 2010-11 | 13,228 | -13,228 | 144 | 96 | 49 | 105 | 20 | 14 | 99 | 75 | 77 | -2 |
| 1. Statistics Canada's population estimates, components of change and age groups are 2006 Census-based adjusted for net undercoverage. | ||||||||||||
| 2. Except for Canada, all projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2011). Projections for Canada are from Statistics Canada (based on 2006 Census). | ||||||||||||
| 3. Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64. | ||||||||||||
| 4. Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates for years after 2005 represent three-year averages (e.g., 2007 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2006-2008). | ||||||||||||
| 5. Families and households are Census data. | ||||||||||||
| 6. In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). | ||||||||||||
| Note: All population figures are for July 1st. | ||||||||||||
| Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada. | December 20, 2011 | |||||||||||
Office of Economic Policy
Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch