Ontario Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of the Third Quarter 2011

December 20 , 2011

Population Growth

Population Growth, Ontario, 3rd Quarter, 2011
(Thousands)
Population, July 1, 2011
13,373.0 
Plus Births
38.2
Minus Deaths
22.6
Plus Immigrants
29.1
Minus Net Emigrants
8.1
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents
12.7
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals
23.9
Minus Interprovincial Departures
23.4
Population, October 1, 2011
13,422.9 
Source: Statistics Canada
Bar graph: Seasonal Patterns of Emigration from Ontario 2007 to 2010

Ontario’s population reached 13,422,912 on October 1, 2011, with growth of 49,916 people in the third quarter of 2011. This compares to growth of 57,925 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Births and Deaths

Births and deaths increased by 1.1 per cent and 3.8 per cent, respectively, from the same quarter of 2010.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 15,600 in the quarter, down from 16,032 in the same quarter of 2010.

International Migration

Immigration to Ontario was 29,091 in the quarter, a decrease of 16.6 per cent from the level of 34,885 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 40.5 per cent of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, down from 41.4 per cent in the same quarter of 2010. Over the last 12 months Ontario received 99,082 immigrants, down from 118,478 during the previous year.

There were 8,067 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, essentially unchanged from 8,006 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 42.0 per cent of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non‑permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) increased by 12,749 to 267,313 in the third quarter.

In summary, net international migration was 33,773 in the third quarter, down from 39,810 in the same quarter of 2010.

Interprovincial Migration

In the third quarter of 2011, Ontario had a net gain of 543 people from other provinces compared to a net gain of 2,083 people in the same quarter of 2010. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with seven of the 12 other provinces and territories, with the largest net gains from Quebec (905) and British Columbia (450). Ontario’s largest net losses were with Alberta (-1,006) and Newfoundland and Labrador (-202). Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 3,838, compared to a 1,291 loss during the previous year.

Year-Over-Year Growth

Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s population grew by 137,196 or 1.0 per cent, lower than growth of 162,097 during the previous year. Among the provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan had the highest population growth rates (1.7 and 1.5 per cent). Canada’s population growth rate over the period was 1.0 per cent.

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Ontario Demographic Factsheet1

  Intercensal Estimates Postcensal Estimates1 MOF Projections2   
  1991 1996 2001 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
POPULATION (000s)                            
Canada 28,037 29,610 31,019 32,576 32,930 33,319 33,730 34,126 34,483 36,494 38,406 40,288 42,094 43,822
Ontario 10,431 11,083 11,897 12,665 12,793 12,934 13,073 13,228 13,373 14,195 15,068 15,974 16,871 17,749
Ontario as % of Canada 37.2 37.4 38.4 38.9 38.8 38.8 38.8 38.8 38.8 38.9 39.2 39.6 40.1 40.5
Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate 2.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0
(Over previous year shown)                            
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%)                            
0-4 7.0 6.8 5.9 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.1
5-14 13.2 13.5 13.5 12.3 12.0 11.8 11.5 11.3 11.1 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.0
15-24 14.5 13.2 13.4 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6 12.4 11.4 11.1 11.2 11.5
25-44 34.3 32.9 31.5 29.4 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.5 26.9 26.0 25.0
45-64 19.6 21.3 23.2 25.9 26.5 27.0 27.5 27.9 28.1 27.9 26.7 25.1 24.0 24.0
65-74 7.0 7.3 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.5 9.0 10.2 11.0 11.7 11.0
75+ 4.6 5.0 5.6 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 7.0 7.8 9.2 10.7 12.3
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%)                            
0-14 20.2 20.3 19.4 17.8 17.5 17.2 17.0 16.7 16.5 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.5 16.1
15-64 68.3 67.4 68.1 69.1 69.3 69.3 69.3 69.4 69.3 67.8 65.6 63.2 61.1 60.5
65+ 11.5 12.2 12.5 13.1 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.2 16.0 18.0 20.2 22.4 23.4
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS                            
Total Dependency Ratio (%)3 62.6 64.1 63.1 60.6 60.3 60.1 59.8 59.4 59.2 61.2 66.2 73.1 79.8 82.3
Median Age (yrs.) 33.3 35.0 36.7 38.4 38.7 38.9 39.2 39.4 39.6 40.3 40.8 41.5 42.3 43.1
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) 26-45 31-50 36-55 41-60 42-61 43-62 44-63 45-64 46-65 51-70 56-75 61-80 66-85 71-90
Total Fertility Rate4 1.66 1.61 1.53 1.55 1.57 1.58 n.a. n.a. 1.59 1.62 1.64 1.66 1.66 1.66
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)4 80.8 81.3 82.1 83.1 83.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. 84.0 84.8 85.6 86.3 87.1 87.8
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)4 75.0 75.9 77.5 78.8 79.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 79.9 81.2 82.2 83.3 84.3 85.3
Families (000s)5 2,727 2,933 3,191 3,422 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Households (000s)5 3,638 3,925 4,219 4,555 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%)                            
GTA 42.0 43.0 44.5 45.8 46.1 46.5 46.8 47.1 47.4 48.5 49.4 50.3 51.1 51.8
Central 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.0 21.9 21.8 21.8 21.6 21.6 21.4 21.2 21.1 21.0 21.0
Eastern 13.9 13.8 13.5 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.4
Southwestern 13.7 13.4 13.0 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.2 12.1 12.0 11.6 11.2 10.8 10.5 10.2
Northeastern 5.8 5.4 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2
Northwestern 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3

COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)6 Year Beginning July 1st
Period Population,
Beginning
of Period 		Total
Change 		Births Deaths Natural
Increase		 International Migration Interprovincial Migration
Immig. Net
Emig 		Net
NPRs 		Net In Out Net
Five-Year                        
1991-96 10,431 652 738 381 357 632 123 -115 394 338 378 -40
1996-2001 11,083 814 659 403 256 584 124 41 501 371 303 69
2001-06 11,897 769 658 418 240 653 90 43 607 307 336 -30
Annual                        
2006-07 12,665 128 137 87 50 115 20 2 97 59 79 -20
2007-08 12,793 142 141 88 53 115 23 11 103 62 76 -15
2008-09 12,934 138 141 90 52 105 20 16 102 57 73 -16
2009-10 13,073 155 143 92 50 117 20 13 109 60 64 -5
2010-11 13,228 -13,228 144 96 49 105 20 14 99 75 77 -2

1. Statistics Canada's population estimates, components of change and age groups are 2006 Census-based adjusted for net undercoverage.           
2. Except for Canada, all projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2011). Projections for Canada are from Statistics Canada (based on 2006 Census).
3. Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.        
4. Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates for years after 2005 represent three-year averages (e.g., 2007 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2006-2008).       
5. Families and households are Census data. 
6. In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs).    
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.  
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada. December 20, 2011

Office of Economic Policy
Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch

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