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Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of the Third Quarter 2008

December 19 , 2008

Population Growth

Population Growth, Ontario, 3rd Quarter, 2008
(Thousands)
Population, July 1, 2008
12,929.0 
Plus Births
36.8
Minus Deaths
21.4
Plus Immigrants
31.8
Minus Net Emigrants
7.1
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents
11.2
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals
26.1
Minus Interprovincial Departures
29.3
Population, October 1, 2008
12,977.1 
Source: Statistics Canada
A pair of pie charts showing immigration to Canada in 2007 and 2008 among five regions - Ontario, Quebec, the Atlantic provinces, British Columbia and the rest of Western Canada.

Ontario’s population reached 12,977,059 on October 1, 2008, with growth of 48,063 people in the third quarter. This compares to growth of 46,477 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Births and Deaths

Births and deaths increased by 1.3 per cent and 3.7 per cent, respectively, from the same quarter of 2007.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 15,330 in the quarter, down from 15,618 in the same quarter of 2007.

International Migration

Immigration to Ontario was 31,782 in the quarter, a decrease of 4.5 per cent from the level of 33,292 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Ontario received 44.6 per cent of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, down from 46.5 per cent in the same quarter of 2007.

There were 7,076 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, virtually unchanged from 7,005 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 48.3 per cent of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non‑permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs - i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) increased by 11,227 in the quarter.

Net international migration was 35,933 in the third quarter, up from 35,372 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Interprovincial Migration

In the third quarter of 2008, Ontario had a net loss of 3,200 people to other provinces compared to a net loss of 4,513 people in the same quarter of 2007. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with PEI, NS, Quebec, Manitoba and BC, and saw net losses with NL, NB, SK, AB and the three territories. The largest net loss was to Alberta (4,208).

Year-Over-Year Growth

Over the 12-month period ending September 30, 2008, Ontario’s population grew by 137,010 or 1.1 per cent, up from 1 per cent in the previous year. Among the provinces, Alberta had the highest growth rate (2.4 per cent) followed by BC (1.6 per cent) and Saskatchewan and PEI (1.5 per cent). Canada’s population growth rate for the period was 1.2 per cent.

Contact Paul Lewis (416 325-0821) / Victor Caballero (416 325-0825)

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Ontario Demographic Factsheet1

  Intercensal Estimates Postcensal Estimates1
  1991 1996 2001 2006 2007 2008
POPULATION (000s)            
Canada 28,037 29,610 31,019 32,576 32,927 33,311
Ontario 10,431 11,083 11,897 12,665 12,794 12,929
Ontario as % of Canada 37.2 37.4 38.4 38.9 38.9 38.8
Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate 2.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.1
(Over previous year shown)            
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%)            
0-4 7.0 6.8 6.0 5.3 5.3 n.a.
5-14 13.1 13.5 13.5 12.5 12.2 n.a.
15-24 14.5 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.6 n.a.
25-44 34.2 32.9 31.5 29.8 29.4 n.a.
45-64 19.6 21.3 23.2 25.8 26.3 n.a.
65-74 7.0 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.9 n.a.
75+ 4.6 5.0 5.6 6.1 6.3 n.a.
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%)            
0-14 20.1 20.3 19.4 17.8 17.5 n.a.
15-64 68.3 67.4 68.1 69.2 69.3 n.a.
65+ 11.6 12.2 12.5 13.0 13.2 n.a.
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS            
Total Dependency Ratio (%)3 62.6 64.1 63.1 60.1 59.7 n.a.
Median Age (yrs.) 33.3 35.0 36.7 38.2 38.5 n.a.
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) 26-45 31-50 36-55 41-60 42-61 43-62
Total Fertility Rate4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 n.a. n.a.
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)4 80.8 81.3 82.2 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)4 75.0 75.9 77.5 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Families (000s)5 2,727 2,933 3,191 3,422 n.a. n.a.
Households (000s)5 3,638 3,925 4,219 4,555 n.a. n.a.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%)            
GTA 42.0 43.0 44.6 46.4 46.8 n.a.
Central 22.2 22.1 22.1 21.7 21.6 n.a.
Eastern 13.8 13.8 13.5 13.1 13.0 n.a.
Southwestern 13.7 13.4 13.0 12.4 12.4 n.a.
Northeastern 5.8 5.4 4.8 4.5 4.4 n.a.
Northwestern 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 n.a.
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ONTARIO DEMOGRAPHIC FACTSHEET1    
  MOF Projections2 
  2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
POPULATION (000s)          
Canada 33,910 35,267 36,609 37,883 39,029
Ontario 13,349 14,150 14,937 15,688 16,366
Ontario as % of Canada 39.4 40.1 40.8 41.4 41.9
Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate
(Over previous year shown) 		1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%)          
0-4 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9
5-14 11.2 10.6 10.5 10.6 10.6
15-24 13.4 12.7 11.6 11.0 11.0
25-44 28.1 27.7 27.7 27.2 26.2
45-64 28.1 28.1 27.5 26.4 25.4
65-74 7.4 8.9 10.1 11.0 11.9
75+ 6.5 6.8 7.4 8.7 10.0
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%)          
0-14 16.4 15.8 15.8 15.7 15.5
15-64 69.6 68.5 66.8 64.6 62.7
65+ 14.0 15.6 17.5 19.7 21.9
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS          
Total Dependency Ratio (%)3 58.7 59.8 63.0 68.8 74.7
Median Age (yrs.)          
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) 46-65 51-70 56-75 61-80 66-85
Total Fertility Rate 4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4 83.2 83.6 84.1 84.5 85.0
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4 79.4 80.2 80.9 81.7 82.5
Families (000s)5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Households (000s)5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%)          
GTA 47.7 48.7 49.5 50.2 50.8
Central 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.3 21.2
Eastern 12.8 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.2
Southwestern 12.1 11.8 11.5 11.2 11.0
Northeastern 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.4
Northwestern 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4
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COMPONENTS OF CHANGE6 (000s)6– Year Beginning July 1st     
Period Population,
Beginning
of Period 		Total
Change 		Births Deaths Natural
Increase
Five-Year          
1991-96 10,431 652 738 381 357
1996-2001 11,083 814 659 403 256
2001-06 11,897 769 658 418 240
Annual          
2006-07 12,665 128 136 86 50
2007-08 12,794 135 136 89 48
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COMPONENTS OF CHANGE6 (000s)6– Year Beginning July 1st     
Period International Migration Interprovincial Migration  
Immig. Net
Emig 		Net
NPRs 		Net In Out Net
Five-Year              
1991-96 632 123 -115 394 338 378 -40
1996-2001 584 124 41 501 371 303 69
2001-06 653 90 43 607 307 336 -30
Annual              
2006-07 115 19 2 98 59 79 -20
2007-08 115 21 10 104 79 95 -17
1. Statistics Canada's population estimates and components of change are 2006 Census-based adjusted for net undercoverage (parts of the table shaded). The rest of the table (e.g. age groups, regional population) is still 2001 Census-based. These will be updated as 2006 Census-based information becomes available.
2. Except for Canada, all projections are produced by Ontario Ministry of Finance, 2007-2031 (Spring 2008 Update). Projections for Canada are Statistics Canada.
3. Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0-19 and 65+ (elderly) to the population aged 20-64.
4. Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year.
5. Families and households are Census data.
6. In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs).
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Office of Economic Policy
Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch

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