Ontario Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of the Fourth Quarter 2010

March 24 , 2011

Population Growth

Population Growth, Ontario, 4th Quarter, 2009

(Thousands)
Population, October 1, 2010
13,268.6 
Plus Births
35.3
Minus Deaths
24.8
Plus Immigrants
23.6
Minus Net Emigrants
5.8
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents
-12.6
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals
14.3
Minus Interprovincial Departures
16.1
Population, January 1, 2011
13,282.4 
Source: Statistics Canada
line graph: Ontario’s Net Interprovincial Migration Gains
and Losses with the Rest of Canada, 1991 to 2009

Ontario’s population reached 13,282,444 on January 1, 2011, with growth of 13,886 people in the fourth quarter. This compares to growth of 14,627 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Births and Deaths

Births and deaths increased by 1.2 per cent and 3.4 per cent, respectively, from the same quarter of 2009.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 10,505 in the quarter, down from 10,904 in the same quarter of 2009.

International Migration

Immigration to Ontario was 23,601 in the quarter, a decrease of 1.0 per cent from the level of 23,834 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received
40.9 per cent of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, down from 42.3 per cent in the same quarter of 2009. During 2010, Ontario received 118,137 immigrants, up from 106,866 in 2009.

There were 5,806 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, similar to the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 48.5 per cent of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) decreased by 12,606 to 239,755 in the fourth quarter.

In summary, net international migration was 5,192 in the fourth quarter, up from 4,435 in the same quarter of 2009.

Interprovincial Migration

In the fourth quarter of 2010, Ontario had a net loss of 1,811 people to other provinces and territories. This net interprovincial migration loss follows a net gain in the third quarter of 2010.

In 2010, Ontario experienced net losses in its exchanges with eight of the 12 other provinces and territories, with the largest net losses to Alberta (3,288), Saskatchewan (1,912) and British Columbia (1,341). Ontario’s largest net gain was with Quebec (2,514). In 2010, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 4,543, compared to a 9,880 loss in 2009.

Year-Over-Year Growth

Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s population grew by 153,272 or 1.2 per cent, faster than the growth of 138,351 or 1.1 per cent recorded over the previous year. Among the provinces, Prince Edward Island and Saskatchewan had the highest population growth rates (1.5 per cent). Canada’s population grew 1.1 per cent over the period.

For more information contact Alex Munger (416) 325-0102.

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Ontario Demographic Factsheet1

  Intercensal Estimates Postcensal Estimates1 MOF Projections2
  1991 1996 2001 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
POPULATION (000s)                            
Canada 28,037 29,610 31,019 32,576 32,930 33,316 33,720 34,109 34,532 36,494 38,406 40,288 42,094 43,822
Ontario 10,431 11,083 11,897 12,665 12,793 12,932 13,065 13,211 13,374 14,197 15,090 16,020 16,944 17,849
Ontario as % of Canada 37.2 37.4 38.4 38.9 38.8 38.8 38.7 38.7 38.7 38.9 39.3 39.8 40.3 40.7
Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate (Over previous year shown) 2.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%)                            
0-4 7.0 6.8 5.9 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.1
5-14 13.2 13.5 13.5 12.3 12.0 11.8 11.5 11.3 11.1 10.8 10.8 11.0 11.1 10.8
15-24 14.5 13.2 13.4 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.5 12.4 11.4 11.1 11.2 11.4
25-44 34.3 32.9 31.5 29.4 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.0 25.0
45-64 19.6 21.3 23.2 25.9 26.5 27.0 27.5 27.9 28.2 27.9 26.9 25.3 24.2 24.3
65-74 7.0 7.3 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.5 9.0 10.2 11.0 11.7 11.1
75+ 4.6 5.0 5.6 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 7.0 7.8 9.1 10.6 12.3
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%)                            
0-14 20.2 20.3 19.4 17.8 17.5 17.2 16.9 16.7 16.5 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.3 15.9
15-64 68.3 67.4 68.1 69.1 69.3 69.3 69.4 69.4 69.4 67.8 65.7 63.3 61.3 60.7
65+ 11.5 12.2 12.5 13.1 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 16.0 17.9 20.2 22.4 23.4
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS                            
Total Dependency Ratio (%) 3 62.6 64.1 63.1 60.6 60.3 60.0 59.8 59.3 59.1 61.1 66.0 72.6 79.2 81.6
Median Age (yrs.) 33.3 35.0 36.7 38.4 38.7 38.9 39.2 39.4 39.7 40.4 41.0 41.7 42.5 43.3
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) 26-45 31-50 36-55 41-60 42-61 43-62 44-63 45-64 46-65 51-70 56-75 61-80 66-85 71-90
Total Fertility Rate 4 1.66 1.61 1.53 1.55 1.57 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.60 1.62 1.65 1.66 1.66 1.66
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4 80.8 81.3 82.1 83.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 83.9 84.8 85.6 86.3 87.1 87.8
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4 75.0 75.9 77.5 78.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 80.1 81.3 82.3 83.4 84.4 85.3
Families (000s) 5 2,727 2,933 3,191 3,422 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Households (000s) 5 3,638 3,925 4,219 4,555 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%)                            
GTA 42.0 43.0 44.5 45.8 46.1 46.5 46.8 47.1 47.2 48.2 49.1 49.8 50.5 51.2
Central 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.0 21.9 21.8 21.8 21.6 21.7 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.4 21.4
Eastern 13.9 13.8 13.5 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.3
Southwestern 13.7 13.4 13.0 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.2 12.1 12.0 11.7 11.3 11.0 10.7 10.5
Northeastern 5.8 5.4 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.3
Northwestern 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3

 

COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)6 – Year Beginning July 1st
  Population, Beginning of Period Total
Change
Births Deaths Natural
Increase
International Migration Interprovincial Migration
  Immig. Net
Emig
Net
NPRs
Net In Out Net
Period
Five-Year                        
1991-96 10,431 652 738 381 357 632 123 -115 394 338 378 -40
1996-2001 11,083 814 659 403 256 584 124 41 501 371 303 69
2001-06 11,897 769 658 418 240 653 90 43 607 307 336 -30
Annual                        
2006-07 12,665 128 137 87 50 115 20 2 97 59 79 -20
2007-08 12,793 139 139 89 50 115 21 10 104 62 76 -15
2008-09 12,932 133 140 92 49 105 22 16 100 57 73 -16
2009-10 13,065 146 142 95 47 117 22 12 106 74 82 -7
1. Statistics Canada's population estimates, components of change and age groups are 2006 Census-based adjusted for net undercoverage.            
2. Except for Canada, all projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2010). Projections for Canada are from Statistics Canada (based on the 2006 Census).
3. Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0-19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.         
4. Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates for years after 2005 represent three-year averages (e.g., 2006 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2005-2007).          
5. Families and households are Census data.    
6. In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs).     
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.    
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.      March 24, 2011

Office of Economic Policy
Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch

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