March 24 , 2011
Population Growth
Population Growth, Ontario, 4th Quarter, 2009 |
|
| (Thousands) Population,
October 1, 2010 |
13,268.6 |
|---|---|
| Plus Births | 35.3 |
| Minus Deaths |
24.8 |
| Plus Immigrants |
23.6 |
| Minus Net Emigrants |
5.8 |
| Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents |
-12.6 |
| Plus Interprovincial Arrivals |
14.3 |
| Minus Interprovincial Departures |
16.1 |
| Population,
January 1, 2011 |
13,282.4 |
| Source: Statistics Canada | |
Ontario’s population reached 13,282,444 on January 1, 2011, with growth of 13,886 people in the fourth quarter. This compares to growth of 14,627 in the same quarter of the previous year.
Births and Deaths
Births and deaths increased by 1.2 per cent and 3.4 per cent, respectively, from the same quarter of 2009.
Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 10,505 in the quarter, down from 10,904 in the same quarter of 2009.International Migration
Immigration to Ontario was 23,601 in the quarter, a decrease of 1.0 per cent from the level of 23,834 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received
40.9 per cent of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, down from 42.3 per cent in the same quarter of 2009. During 2010, Ontario received 118,137 immigrants, up from 106,866 in 2009.
There were 5,806 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, similar to the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 48.5 per cent of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.
The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) decreased by 12,606 to 239,755 in the fourth quarter.
In summary, net international migration was 5,192 in the fourth quarter, up from 4,435 in the same quarter of 2009.Interprovincial Migration
In the fourth quarter of 2010, Ontario had a net loss of 1,811 people to other provinces and territories. This net interprovincial migration loss follows a net gain in the third quarter of 2010.
In 2010, Ontario experienced net losses in its exchanges with eight of the 12 other provinces and territories, with the largest net losses to Alberta (3,288), Saskatchewan (1,912) and British Columbia (1,341). Ontario’s largest net gain was with Quebec (2,514). In 2010, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration loss was 4,543, compared to a 9,880 loss in 2009.Year-Over-Year Growth
Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s population grew by 153,272 or 1.2 per cent, faster than the growth of 138,351 or 1.1 per cent recorded over the previous year. Among the provinces, Prince Edward Island and Saskatchewan had the highest population growth rates (1.5 per cent). Canada’s population grew 1.1 per cent over the period.
For more information contact Alex Munger (416) 325-0102.
Ontario Demographic Factsheet1
| Intercensal Estimates | Postcensal Estimates1 | MOF Projections2 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | |
| POPULATION (000s) | ||||||||||||||
| Canada | 28,037 | 29,610 | 31,019 | 32,576 | 32,930 | 33,316 | 33,720 | 34,109 | 34,532 | 36,494 | 38,406 | 40,288 | 42,094 | 43,822 |
| Ontario | 10,431 | 11,083 | 11,897 | 12,665 | 12,793 | 12,932 | 13,065 | 13,211 | 13,374 | 14,197 | 15,090 | 16,020 | 16,944 | 17,849 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 37.2 | 37.4 | 38.4 | 38.9 | 38.8 | 38.8 | 38.7 | 38.7 | 38.7 | 38.9 | 39.3 | 39.8 | 40.3 | 40.7 |
| Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate (Over previous year shown) | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| AGE DISTRIBUTION (%) | ||||||||||||||
| 0-4 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
| 5-14 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 11.1 | 10.8 |
| 15-24 | 14.5 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 12.4 | 11.4 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 11.4 |
| 25-44 | 34.3 | 32.9 | 31.5 | 29.4 | 29.0 | 28.6 | 28.1 | 27.8 | 27.7 | 27.4 | 27.4 | 26.9 | 26.0 | 25.0 |
| 45-64 | 19.6 | 21.3 | 23.2 | 25.9 | 26.5 | 27.0 | 27.5 | 27.9 | 28.2 | 27.9 | 26.9 | 25.3 | 24.2 | 24.3 |
| 65-74 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 11.7 | 11.1 |
| 75+ | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 10.6 | 12.3 |
| SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%) | ||||||||||||||
| 0-14 | 20.2 | 20.3 | 19.4 | 17.8 | 17.5 | 17.2 | 16.9 | 16.7 | 16.5 | 16.2 | 16.4 | 16.5 | 16.3 | 15.9 |
| 15-64 | 68.3 | 67.4 | 68.1 | 69.1 | 69.3 | 69.3 | 69.4 | 69.4 | 69.4 | 67.8 | 65.7 | 63.3 | 61.3 | 60.7 |
| 65+ | 11.5 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 13.7 | 13.9 | 14.1 | 16.0 | 17.9 | 20.2 | 22.4 | 23.4 |
| OTHER CHARACTERISTICS | ||||||||||||||
| Total Dependency Ratio (%) 3 | 62.6 | 64.1 | 63.1 | 60.6 | 60.3 | 60.0 | 59.8 | 59.3 | 59.1 | 61.1 | 66.0 | 72.6 | 79.2 | 81.6 |
| Median Age (yrs.) | 33.3 | 35.0 | 36.7 | 38.4 | 38.7 | 38.9 | 39.2 | 39.4 | 39.7 | 40.4 | 41.0 | 41.7 | 42.5 | 43.3 |
| Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) | 26-45 | 31-50 | 36-55 | 41-60 | 42-61 | 43-62 | 44-63 | 45-64 | 46-65 | 51-70 | 56-75 | 61-80 | 66-85 | 71-90 |
| Total Fertility Rate 4 | 1.66 | 1.61 | 1.53 | 1.55 | 1.57 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | 1.60 | 1.62 | 1.65 | 1.66 | 1.66 | 1.66 |
| Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4 | 80.8 | 81.3 | 82.1 | 83.1 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | 83.9 | 84.8 | 85.6 | 86.3 | 87.1 | 87.8 |
| Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4 | 75.0 | 75.9 | 77.5 | 78.8 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | 80.1 | 81.3 | 82.3 | 83.4 | 84.4 | 85.3 |
| Families (000s) 5 | 2,727 | 2,933 | 3,191 | 3,422 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Households (000s) 5 | 3,638 | 3,925 | 4,219 | 4,555 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%) | ||||||||||||||
| GTA | 42.0 | 43.0 | 44.5 | 45.8 | 46.1 | 46.5 | 46.8 | 47.1 | 47.2 | 48.2 | 49.1 | 49.8 | 50.5 | 51.2 |
| Central | 22.2 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.0 | 21.9 | 21.8 | 21.8 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 21.4 |
| Eastern | 13.9 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 12.3 |
| Southwestern | 13.7 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 12.3 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 11.3 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 10.5 |
| Northeastern | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| Northwestern | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)6 – Year Beginning July 1st | ||||||||||||
| Population, Beginning of Period | Total Change |
Births | Deaths | Natural Increase |
International Migration | Interprovincial Migration | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Immig. | Net Emig |
Net NPRs |
Net | In | Out | Net | ||||||
| Period | ||||||||||||
| Five-Year | ||||||||||||
| 1991-96 | 10,431 | 652 | 738 | 381 | 357 | 632 | 123 | -115 | 394 | 338 | 378 | -40 |
| 1996-2001 | 11,083 | 814 | 659 | 403 | 256 | 584 | 124 | 41 | 501 | 371 | 303 | 69 |
| 2001-06 | 11,897 | 769 | 658 | 418 | 240 | 653 | 90 | 43 | 607 | 307 | 336 | -30 |
| Annual | ||||||||||||
| 2006-07 | 12,665 | 128 | 137 | 87 | 50 | 115 | 20 | 2 | 97 | 59 | 79 | -20 |
| 2007-08 | 12,793 | 139 | 139 | 89 | 50 | 115 | 21 | 10 | 104 | 62 | 76 | -15 |
| 2008-09 | 12,932 | 133 | 140 | 92 | 49 | 105 | 22 | 16 | 100 | 57 | 73 | -16 |
| 2009-10 | 13,065 | 146 | 142 | 95 | 47 | 117 | 22 | 12 | 106 | 74 | 82 | -7 |
| 1. Statistics Canada's population estimates, components of change and age groups are 2006 Census-based adjusted for net undercoverage. | ||||||||||||
| 2. Except for Canada, all projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2010). Projections for Canada are from Statistics Canada (based on the 2006 Census). | ||||||||||||
| 3. Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0-19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64. | ||||||||||||
| 4. Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates for years after 2005 represent three-year averages (e.g., 2006 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2005-2007). | ||||||||||||
| 5. Families and households are Census data. | ||||||||||||
| 6. In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). | ||||||||||||
| Note: All population figures are for July 1st. | ||||||||||||
| Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada. | March 24, 2011 | |||||||||||
Office of Economic Policy
Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch