Ontario Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of Fourth Quarter 2015

March 16, 2016

Population Growth

Population Growth, Ontario,
4th Quarter, 2016

(Thousands)
Population, October 1, 2015
13,850.1
Plus Births 35.9
Minus Deaths 25.9
Plus Immigrants 27.4
Minus Emigrants* 4.6
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents -9.9
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals 11.6
Minus Interprovincial Departures 10.7
Population, January 1, 2016 13,873.9
* Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants
minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada
Components of Population Growth 4th Quarter 2015 and Average for 2010-2014

Ontario’s population reached 13,873,933 on January 1, 2016, with an increase of 23,843 people in the fourth quarter of 2015. This compares to an increase of 4,993 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Births and Deaths

Births increased by 0.9% and deaths increased by 3.4%, from the same quarter of 2014.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 10,047 in the quarter, down from 10,575 in the same quarter of 2014.

International Migration

Immigration to Ontario was 27,379 in the quarter, up 42.1% from the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 38.1% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, up from 37.0% in the same quarter of 2014. Over the last 12 months Ontario received 103,596 immigrants, up from 95,828 during the previous year.

There were 4,628 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, similar to the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 40.0% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) decreased by 9,906 to 318,692 in the fourth quarter.

In summary, there was a net international migration gain of 12,845 in the fourth quarter, up from a net loss of 3,390 in the same quarter of 2014.

Interprovincial Migration

In the fourth quarter of 2015, Ontario had a net inflow of 951 people from other provinces and territories compared to a net outflow of 2,192 people in the same quarter of 2014. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with nine of the 12 other provinces and territories, with the largest net gains from Quebec (1,344) and Alberta (327). Ontario’s largest net outflows were with British Columbia (-915) and Newfoundland and Labrador (-12). Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration outflow was 3,080 compared to a net loss of 14,681 during the previous year.

Year-Over-Year Growth

Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s population grew by 138,803 or 1.0%, higher than growth of 121,399 during the previous year. Among the provinces, Alberta and Manitoba had the highest population growth rates (1.7% and 1.3% respectively). Canada’s population growth rate over the period was 0.9%.

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Ontario Demographic Factsheet

POPULATION (000s)
  Estimates1 MOF Projections2
  2001 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Canada 31,021 32,571 34,343 34,751 35,155 35,544 35,852 36,229 37,998 39,727 41,373 42,903 44,353
Ontario 11,897 12,662 13,264 13,410 13,551 13,678 13,792 13,949 14,703 15,503 16,296 17,054 17,780
Ontario as % of Canada 38.4 38.9 38.6 38.6 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.7 39.0 39.4 39.8 40.1
Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate
(Over previous year shown)
1.4 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%)
  Estimates1 MOF Projections2
  2001 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0–4 5.9 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.8
5–14 13.5 12.3 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.5 10.4 10.5 10.4 10.1
15–24 13.4 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.2 12.9 11.6 11.2 11.1 11.2 11.4
25–44 31.6 29.4 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.8 26.4 25.6 24.7 23.9
45–64 23.2 26.0 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.0 25.2 23.9 23.8 24.3
65–74 7.0 6.9 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.3 10.6 11.6 12.2 11.5 10.4
75+ 5.5 6.2 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.2 8.2 9.8 11.5 13.5 15.1
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%)
  Estimates1 MOF Projections2
  2001 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0–14 19.4 17.8 16.6 16.4 16.2 16.0 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.3 14.9
15–64 68.1 69.2 69.1 68.9 68.6 68.4 68.1 67.6 65.4 62.9 60.6 59.8 59.6
65+ 12.5 13.0 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.5 18.8 21.4 23.8 24.9 25.5
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS
  Estimates1 MOF Projections2
  2001 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Total Dependency Ratio (%)3 63.0 60.6 60.3 60.6 60.9 61.2 61.5 62.1 66.8 74.1 80.9 84.2 84.8
Median Age (yrs.) 36.7 38.4 39.8 40.0 40.2 40.4 40.6 40.9 41.6 42.4 43.2 44.1 44.9
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) 36-55 41-60 46-65 47-66 48-67 49-68 50-69 51-70 56-75 61-80 66-85 71-90 76-95
Total Fertility Rate4 1.53 1.55 1.55 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.57 1.58 1.59 1.60 1.60 1.60
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)4 82.1 83.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 84.9 85.7 86.5 87.3 88.0 88.7
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)4 77.5 78.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 81.2 82.4 83.5 84.6 85.6 86.6
Families (000s)5 3,191 3,422 3,612 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.
Households (000s)5 4,219 4,555 4,888 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%)
  Estimates1 MOF Projections2
  2001 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
GTA 44.5 45.8 47.2 47.4 47.7 47.9 48.0 48.3 49.3 50.3 51.2 52.1 52.9
Central 22.1 22.0 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.1 20.9 20.7 20.5 20.3
Eastern 13.5 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.7
Southwestern 13.0 12.6 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.1 10.8 10.4 10.1 9.8
Northeastern 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0
Northwestern 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)6 – Year Beginning July 1st
Period Population,
Beginning of Period
Total Change Births Deaths Natural Increase
2001–06 11,897 764 658 418 240
2006–11 12,662 602 697 441 256
2011–12 13,264 146 140 90 50
2012–13 13,410 141 141 93 48
2013–14 13,551 127 143 97 46
2014–15 13,678 114 144 100 44
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)6 – Year Beginning July 1st
Migration
  International Migration Interprovincial Migration
Period Immigration Net Emigration Net NPRs Net In Out Net
2001–06 653 118 44 579 307 336 -30
2006–11 558 89 57 525 296 355 -59
2011–12 101 17 23 107 60 71 -11
2012–13 106 16 17 108 55 69 -14
2013–14 102 16 9 95 57 72 -15
2014–15 89 16 6 79 62 70 -9

1. Statistics Canada’s population estimates, based on the 2011 Census.

2. Except for Canada, projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Fall 2014). Projections for Canada are from Statistics Canada (based on 2011 Census).

3. Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.

4. Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates for years after 2006 represent three-year averages (e.g., 2006 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2005-2007).

5. Families and households are Census data.

6. In the “Components of Change” table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.

Note: All population figures are for July 1st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

March 16, 2016

Office of Economic Policy
Economic Policy Branch

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