Ontario Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of Fourth Quarter 2016

March 23, 2017

Population Growth

Population Growth, Ontario,
4th Quarter, 2016

(Thousands)
Population, October 1, 2016
14,063.3
Plus Births 36.8
Minus Deaths 27.7
Plus Immigrants 21.8
Minus Emigrants* 5.2
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents 1.2
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals 13.4
Minus Interprovincial Departures 9.4
Population, January 1, 2017 14,094.2
* Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants
minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada

Ontario’s population reached 14,094,167 on January 1, 2017, with an increase of 30,911 people in the fourth quarter of 2016. This compares to an increase of 21,053 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Births and Deaths

There were 36,800 births and 27,731 deaths during the fourth quarter of 2016, representing increases of 2.1% and 3.5% respectively from the same quarter of 2015.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 9,069 in the quarter, down from 9,224 in the same quarter of 2015.

International Migration

Immigration to Ontario was 21,809 in the fourth quarter of 2016, down 17.7% from the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 39.1% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, up from 38.0% in the same quarter of 2015. Over the last 12 months Ontario received 110,058 immigrants, up from 103,655 during the previous year.

There were 5,194 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, similar to the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 39.8% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) increased by 1,244 to 379,226 in the fourth quarter.

In summary, there was a net international migration gain of 17,859 in the fourth quarter, up from a net gain of 10,965 in the same quarter of 2015.

Interprovincial Migration

In the fourth quarter of 2016, Ontario had a net inflow of 3,983 people from other provinces and territories compared to a net gain of 864 people in the same quarter of 2015. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with nine of the 12 other provinces and territories, with the largest net gains coming from Quebec (1,983) and Alberta (783). Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration gain was 19,822 compared to a net loss of 3,304 during the previous year.

Year-Over-Year Growth

Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s population grew by 218,893 or 1.6%, higher than growth of 138,936 during the previous year. Among the provinces, only Manitoba (1.7%) had a faster population growth rate than Ontario. Canada’s population grew at a rate of 1.3% over the period.

For more information contact Alex Munger (416) 325-0102.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet

POPULATION (000s) - Estimates1
  2001 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Canada 31,021 32,571 34,343 34,751 35,155 35,545 35,847 36,286
Ontario 11,897 12,662 13,264 13,414 13,556 13,685 13,797 13,983
Ontario as % of Canada 38.4 38.9 38.6 38.6 38.6 38.5 38.5 38.5
Ontario Average Annual Growth Rate (Over previous year shown) 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.3
POPULATION (000s) - MOF Projections2
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Canada 37,998 39,727 41,373 42,903 44,353
Ontario 14,788 15,614 16,428 17,205 17,949
Ontario as % of Canada 38.9 39.3 39.7 40.1 40.5
Ontario Average Annual Growth Rate
(Over previous year shown)
1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%) - Estimates3
  2001 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0–4 5.9 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2
5–14 13.5 12.3 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.6
15–24 13.4 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.2 13.1
25–44 31.6 29.4 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7
45–64 23.2 26.0 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0
65–74 7.0 6.9 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.2
75+ 5.5 6.2 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.2
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%) - MOF Projections4
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0–4 5.3 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.8
5–14 10.4 10.4 10.6 10.4 10.1
15–24 11.7 11.2 11.1 11.2 11.5
25–44 27.0 26.7 25.8 24.8 23.9
45–64 26.8 25.1 23.8 23.9 24.4
65–74 10.5 11.5 12.1 11.4 10.3
75+ 8.2 9.8 11.5 13.4 15.0
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%) - Estimates5
  2001 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0–14 19.4 17.8 16.6 16.4 16.2 16.0 15.9 15.9
15–64 68.1 69.2 69.1 68.9 68.6 68.3 68.0 67.8
65+ 12.5 13.0 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.4
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%) - MOF Projections6
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0–14 15.8 15.7 15.7 15.3 14.9
15–64 65.6 63.0 60.7 59.9 59.8
65+ 18.7 21.3 23.6 24.7 25.3
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS - Estimates7
  2001 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Dependency Ratio (%)8 63.0 60.6 60.3 60.6 60.9 61.2 61.6 61.8
Median Age (yrs.) 36.7 38.4 39.8 40.0 40.2 40.4 40.6 40.6
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) 36-55 41-60 46-65 47-66 48-67 49-68 50-69 51-70
Total Fertility Rate9 1.53 1.55 1.55 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)10 82.1 83.1 84.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)11 77.5 78.8 79.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Families (000s) 3,257 3,539 3,723 3,750 3,789 3,828 3,860 3,897
Households (000s)12 4,219 4,555 4,888 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS - MOF Projections13
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Total Dependency Ratio (%)14 66.4 73.7 80.5 83.7 84.2
Median Age (yrs.) 41.4 42.2 43.0 44.0 44.8
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) 56-75 61-80 66-85 71-90 76-95
Total Fertility Rate15 1.58 1.59 1.60 1.60 1.60
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)16 85.7 86.5 87.3 88.0 88.7
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)17 82.4 83.5 84.6 85.6 86.6
Families (000s)  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.
Households (000s)18  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%) - Estimates19
  2001 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
GTA 44.5 45.8 47.2 47.4 47.7 47.9 48.0 48.3
Central 22.1 22.0 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.4
Eastern 13.5 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.0
Southwestern 13.0 12.6 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.6
Northeastern 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0
Northwestern 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%) - MOF Projections20
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
GTA 49.3 50.2 51.1 52.0 52.7
Central 21.2 21.0 20.8 20.7 20.5
Eastern 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.4
Southwestern 11.2 10.9 10.5 10.2 9.9
Northeastern 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.0
Northwestern 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)21 – Year Beginning July 1st
Period Population,
Beginning of Period
Total Change Births Deaths Natural Increase
Five-Year: 2006–11 12,662 602 697 441 256
Five-Year: 2011–16 13,264 719 720 479 241
Annual: 2011–12 13,264 150 141 88 53
Annual: 2012–13 13,414 143 142 92 50
Annual: 2013–14 13,556 129 144 96 48
Annual: 2014–15 13,685 112 146 99 46
Annual: 2015–16 13,797 186 147 103 45
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)22 – Year Beginning July 1st
International Migration
Period Immigration Net Emigration Net NPRs Net
Five-Year: 2006–11 558 89 57 525
Five-Year: 2011–16 518 88 89 520
Annual: 2011–12 101 17 24 108
Annual: 2012–13 106 17 17 107
Annual: 2013–14 102 18 11 95
Annual: 2014–15 90 18 3 74
Annual: 2015–16 120 18 34 135
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)23 – Year Beginning July 1st
Interprovincial Migration
Period In Out Net
Five-Year: 2006–11 296 355 -59
Five-Year: 2011–16 307 348 -42
Annual: 2011–12 60 71 -11
Annual: 2012–13 55 69 -14
Annual: 2013–14 57 72 -15
Annual: 2014–15 63 72 -9
Annual: 2015–16 71 65 6

[1], [3], [5], [7], [19] Statistics Canada’s population estimates, based on the 2011 Census.

[2], [4], [6], [13], [20] Except for Canada, projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2016). Projections for Canada are from Statistics Canada (based on 2011 Census).

[8], [14] Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.

[9], [10], [11], [15], [16], [17] Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates for years after 2006 represent three-year averages (e.g., 2006 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2005-2007).

[12], [18] Households are Census data.

[21], [22], [23] In the “Components of Change” table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.

Note: All population figures are for July 1st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

March 23, 2017

Office of Economic Policy
Economic Policy Branch

Accessible Image Description:

This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the fourth quarter of 2016 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2011-2015). In the fourth quarter of 2016, all components, except immigration and emigration, were higher than the average of fourth quarters of the previous five years.

Return to image

 

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