Third Quarter of 2015
(July, August, September)
Ontario Ministry of Finance
|Real GDP (Chained $ 2007)||1.3||2.7||0.8||0.2||0.4||0.9|
|Government current spending||0.0||0.7||0.2||1.1||0.4||-0.3|
|Machinery & equipment||-22.2||6.9||6.9||-0.6||-4.7||-0.6|
|Intellectual property products||-4.7||-2.8||0.4||-4.4||-0.3||-1.7|
|Final Domestic Demand||-0.3||1.9||0.8||0.7||0.7||0.4|
|Business inventories change ($2007 billions)||3.1||4.9||5.7||8.4||5.5||1.4|
|Nominal GDP ($ Current)||1.9||4.1||0.4||0.6||0.7||1.3|
|Compensation of employees||3.3||3.3||0.3||1.4||0.7||0.7|
|Net operating surplus for corporations||-5.8||12.7||0.6||-3.6||1.2||-0.8|
|Primary household income||3.2||3.5||0.5||0.9||1.2||0.6|
|Household disposable income||3.7||2.5||0.0||0.5||1.8||1.3|
|Implicit price index, GDP||0.6||1.4||-0.4||0.4||0.3||0.5|
Household spending increased 0.7%, after rising 0.9% in the second quarter.
Spending on consumer durables rose 2.6%, following a 3.2% increase in the second quarter. The overall third-quarter gain was largely driven by a 4.5% increase in motor vehicle purchases.
Spending on non-durables (+0.9%) and services (+0.3%) also contributed to the overall rise in consumer expenditures in the quarter.
Residential construction investment increased 0.7%, after rising 1.3% in the second quarter.
Spending on new housing construction increased strongly, but was partially offset by lower renovation spending and ownership transfer costs in the quarter.
Investment in machinery and equipment declined 0.6%, following a 4.7% decrease in the second quarter.
Investment in non-residential construction rose 1.5%, the seventh consecutive quarterly increase.
Non-farm inventory accumulation slowed as businesses added $1.4 billion ($2007) worth of goods to inventories, down from $5.5 billion in the second quarter. The third quarter inventory buildup occurred in the manufacturing and retail sectors, while wholesale inventories declined.
Exports of goods and services advanced 3.0%, rising from a 0.2% second-quarter gain. Imports of goods and services edged down 0.1%, following a 0.1% increase in the previous quarter.
International merchandise exports rose a strong 5.8%, following a 0.7% increase in the second quarter. Export gains were broadly-based with strong increases in automotive products, industrial machinery and equipment, and consumer goods.
International merchandise imports declined 0.1%, driven by lower imports of motor vehicles, consumer goods, and metal and non-metallic mineral products.
Gross Domestic Product measured in current dollars increased 1.3% in the third quarter, following a 0.7% advance in the second quarter.
Compensation of employees rose 0.7%, matching the second quarter gain.
The net operating surplus of corporations (largely corporate profits) declined 0.8%, following a 1.2% second-quarter advance.
Economy-wide prices, as measured by the GDP implicit price index, increased 0.5%, after rising 0.3% in the second quarter. The implicit price index for final domestic demand rose 0.8%, the largest gain since the first quarter of 2014.
Prices for household expenditures increased 0.6%, after advancing 0.4% in the second quarter. Prices for furniture, clothing and natural gas all increased in the third quarter, but were partially offset by lower gasoline prices.
Machinery and equipment prices increased 4.2%, while non-residential construction prices declined 0.5% in the third quarter. Residential construction prices rose 1.2%, the ninth consecutive quarterly increase.
Rising import prices (+2.8%) outpaced higher export prices (+2.0%) in the third quarter. The Canadian dollar depreciated by 6.1% relative to the U.S. dollar in the quarter.
Ontario’s real output by industry rose 0.9% in the third quarter of 2015. Output by the goods-producing sector increased 1.6%, led by a strong increase in manufacturing production. Service sector output increased 0.7% with solid contributions from finance and insurance, real estate and leasing and retail trade.
|Of which: Auto Industry||-3.6||5.4||2.6||-5.8||-0.4||7.0|
|Transportation and Warehousing||0.6||3.4||0.5||0.0||0.0||1.0|
|Information and Cultural Industries||1.5||0.3||-1.5||0.6||1.3||0.3|
|Finance and Insurance||4.3||4.3||1.2||1.2||0.3||1.2|
|Real Estate and Leasing||2.3||2.2||0.7||0.5||1.5||1.5|
|Professional and Administrative Services||1.7||2.2||0.7||0.3||-0.4||0.5|
|Management of Companies and Enterprises||3.6||0.4||2.4||1.9||-4.5||1.1|
|Health Care and Social Services||1.2||1.2||-0.1||0.8||0.9||1.0|
|Arts, Entertainment and Recreation||2.4||0.9||0.2||3.8||6.9||2.8|
|Accommodation and Food||2.5||4.5||0.6||-1.7||1.7||0.7|
|Ontario Output at Basic Prices||1.2||2.5||0.6||0.3||0.5||0.9|
Note: Output by industry is defined as real gross domestic product (GDP) at basic prices in chained 2007 dollars.
GDP at basic prices includes taxes net of subsidies on labour and capital inputs, but not taxes on final products.
Manufacturing sector output increased 2.8% in the third quarter, following a 0.3% decline in the second quarter.
Ten of the eleven manufacturing industries had higher production in the quarter. Electrical and electronic products (-1.9%) posted the only decline, following two quarterly increases.
The strongest manufacturing production gains occurred in wood products and furniture (+6.1%) and transportation equipment (+5.6%). Also posting higher output in the quarter were food, beverage and tobacco products (+1.4%) and plastic and rubber products (+3.5%).
Within the transportation equipment industry, a strong 7.0% rebound in automotive vehicle and parts production led the gain in the quarter, following temporary plant closures for retooling in the first half of the year.
Output in other transportation equipment, which is primarily composed of the aerospace sector, decreased 1.4% in the third quarter.
Output in primary industries edged up 0.2% in the quarter, gains in mining (+1.3%) were partly offset by lower production in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting (-1.3%).
Utilities production declined 2.7% in the third quarter, reflecting lower output from electric power.
Construction* sector production rose by 1.0%, the seventh consecutive quarterly gain. Output rose in non-residential buildings and engineering (+0.7%) and residential building construction (+1.4%).
*Construction industry output is measured by the value added of the industry. Construction investment, as reported in the expenditure-based GDP accounts, measures the spending on new construction projects.
Output in the retail trade sector rose by 1.2%, the sixth consecutive quarterly gain. Higher sales in motor vehicles and parts along with food and beverage stores led gains in the retail sector.
Wholesale trade output declined by 1.3%, following a 3.4% increase in the second quarter. Wholesaling activity in food and beverage along with farm products was lower in the quarter.
Output in the real estate and leasing sector rose 1.5%, following a 1.5% increase in the second quarter. Real estate sector output continues to be supported by a strong housing market.
Output in the finance and insurance sector increased 1.2%, the sixth consecutive quarterly advance, supported by gains in banking and insurance.
In the third quarter, there were also notable gains in health care and social services (+1.0%), transportation and warehousing (+1.0%) and arts, entertainment and recreation (+2.8%).
Table 1: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Income-Based)
Table 2: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure-Based)
Table 3: Ontario Gross Domestic Product at Chained 2007 Prices
Table 4: Sources and Disposition of Ontario Household Income
Table 5: Ontario Trade
Table 6: Ontario Trade (Chained 2007 Prices)
Table 7: Ontario Deflators
Table 8: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Income-Based)
Table 9: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure-Based)
Table 10: Ontario Gross Domestic Product at Chained 2007 Prices
Table 11: Sources and Disposition of Ontario Household Income
Table 12: Ontario Trade
Table 13: Ontario Trade (Chained 2007 Prices)
Table 14: Ontario Deflators