: Ontario Economic Accounts - Second Quarter of 2015

October 2015
Second Quarter of 2015
(April, May, June)
Ontario Ministry of Finance

Table of Contents

Second Quarter 2015 Summary
Real Expenditure Details
Income Details
Economy-Wide Price Details
Production By Industry Details
List of Tables
Analytical Tables and Charts 2001:Q1-2015:Q2


Ontario Real GDP Rises in Second Quarter
  • Ontario’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 0.4% (1.4% annualized) in the second quarter of 2015, after no growth in the first quarter when economic activity was dampened by unusually harsh weather, supply chain disruptions from the U.S. west coast port labour dispute and retooling at some of Ontario’s auto assembly plants.
  • Household spending advanced 0.9% in the quarter, driven by a 3.2% increase in durable goods spending.  Spending on semi-durables (+1.1%) and services (+1.0%) also contributed to the overall rise in consumer expenditures.
  • Investment in residential construction rose 1.0%, following a 1.3% advance in the first quarter.  The increase was led by a strong gain in owner transfer costs, reflecting higher home resale activity.  Increased renovation activity also contributed to the overall gain, while new housing construction declined in the quarter.
  • Capital spending on machinery and equipment decreased 4.9%, the third consecutive quarterly decline, while investment in non-residential construction advanced 4.1%, following a 1.5% increase in the first quarter.
  • Businesses increased inventories by $5.8 billion, slowing from an accumulation of $8.4 billion in the first quarter.
  • Both exports (+0.7%) and imports (+0.4%) advanced in the second quarter, rebounding from first quarter declines.
  • Current dollar GDP increased 0.5% in the second quarter, matching the gain in the first quarter.  Compensation of employees rose 0.3%, while the net operating surplus of corporations also increased 0.3% in the quarter. Economy-wide prices increased 0.2%, after rising 0.5% in the first quarter.
  • Economic production, measured on an industry basis, advanced 0.5% in the second quarter.  Output in the services sector rose 0.9%, while goods sector activity declined 0.7%.
(% change from previous period)
  2013 2014 2014q3 2014q4 2015q1 2015q2
Real GDP (Chained $ 2007) 1.3 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.4
(annualized rate)     4.3 2.3 0.0 1.4
Household spending 2.1 2.6 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.9
Government current spending 0.6 0.6 -0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.7
Residential construction -2.3 0.6 2.1 0.0 1.3 1.0
Non-residential construction -5.2 -1.8 0.2 0.2 1.5 4.1
Machinery & equipment -8.2 0.9 3.0 -0.1 -0.9 -4.9
Intellectual property products -3.4 -3.3 -0.3 0.3 -1.6 0.8
Final Domestic Demand 0.4 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.8
Exports 1.8 3.4 3.1 0.2 -2.0 0.7
Imports 0.1 2.2 0.9 1.4 -0.5 0.4
Change in Business inventories ($2007 billions) 3.7 4.7 2.1 5.8 8.4 5.8
Nominal GDP ($ Current) 2.4 3.6 1.5 0.1 0.5 0.5
Compensation of employees 2.7 3.0 1.0 0.3 1.9 0.3
Net operating surplus for corporations 0.0 7.5 2.8 -3.3 -3.4 0.3
Household disposable income 2.7 3.3 0.9 0.5 2.4 0.0
Implicit price index, GDP 1.1 1.4 0.5 -0.5 0.5 0.2


Household Spending Accelerates In
Second Quarter

Real Household Spending Up in Second Quarter

Household spending increased 0.9%, following a 0.5% first-quarter gain.

Spending on durable goods rose 3.2%, rebounding from a 0.9% decline in the first quarter.  Automobile purchases increased strongly in the quarter.

Spending on semi-durables (+1.1%) and services (+1.0%) also contributed to the overall rise in consumer expenditures in the quarter.

Spending on non-durables edged down 0.4%, driven by reduced gasoline and natural gas sales.

Residential Construction Higher in
Second Quarter

Real Residential Construction Higher in Second Quarter

Residential construction investment increased 1.0%, following a 1.3% gain in the first quarter.  A 10.0% increase in ownership transfer costs, buoyed by higher resale activity, along with solid renovation activity (+3.3%) contributed to the second-quarter gain.  These gains were partially offset by a 6.3% decline in new housing construction.

Business Investment in Machinery and
Equipment Declines

Real Machinery and Equipment Investment Lower

Capital spending on machinery and equipment declined 4.9%, following a 0.9% decline in the previous quarter.  Investment in non-residential construction rose 4.1%, the sixth consecutive quarterly increase.

Inventory Accumulation Slows

Change in Business Inventories

Non-farm inventory accumulation slowed as businesses added $5.8 billion ($2007) worth of goods to inventories, down from the $8.4 billion added in the first quarter of 2015.  A significant part of the second quarter inventory buildup was due to increased stocks in the retail sector, while the pace of inventory accumulation in both the manufacturing and wholesale sectors slowed.

Exports and Imports Rebound in
Second Quarter

Exports and Imports Higher in Second Quarter

Exports of goods and services advanced 0.7%, rebounding from a 2.0% decline in the first quarter.  Imports of goods and services also rebounded, rising 0.4%, after declining 0.5% in the first quarter. 

International merchandise exports grew 1.4%, following a 3.8% decline in the first quarter.  Exports of automotive products and consumer goods were stronger in the quarter, while exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products and chemicals and plastics declined. 

International merchandise imports rose 0.7%, following a 0.8% decrease in the previous quarter.  Imports of automotive and consumer goods increased in the quarter.


Nominal GDP Advances in Second Quarter

Nominal GDP Continues to Rise in Second Quarter

Gross Domestic Product measured in current dollars increased 0.5%, matching the first quarter gain.

Compensation of employees increased 0.3%, slowing from a strong 1.9% gain in the first quarter, that was boosted by a special payment by the federal government to fund its employees’ pension plans.

The net operating surplus of corporations (largely corporate profits) rose 0.3%, following two quarterly declines. 

Household disposable income was unchanged, following a 2.4% increase in the first quarter. 

Economy-wide Price DETAILS

Prices Edge Up in Second Quarter

Economy-Wide Prices Higher in Second Quarter

Economy-wide prices, as measured by the GDP implicit price index, rose 0.2%, moderating from a 0.5% increase in the first quarter.  The implicit price index for final domestic demand increased 0.2%, after rising 0.6% in the previous quarter.

Prices for household expenditures rose 0.5%, after a flat first quarter.  Prices for motor vehicles, furniture, and gasoline all advanced, but were partially offset by lower prices for natural gas and clothing in the second quarter.

Machinery and equipment prices increased 1.0%, while non-residential construction prices were unchanged in the second quarter.  Residential construction prices rose 0.5%, the eighth consecutive quarterly increase.

Export prices were unchanged, easing from a 1.5% rise in the first quarter, while import prices edged up 0.2%, following a 1.9% advance in the first quarter.  The Canadian dollar appreciated by 1.0%  relative to the U.S. dollar, after declining 8.5% in the first quarter.



Ontario’s real output by industry rose 0.5% in the second quarter of 2015. Service sector output increased 0.9% with strong contributions from wholesale trade (+4.2%), real estate and leasing (+1.4%), retail trade (+1.5%) and finance and insurance (+0.7%). Output by the goods-producing sector contracted 0.7%, with lower production in manufacturing (-0.6%), utilities (-4.7%) and primary industries (-1.3%).

(% change from previous period, chained $2007)
  2013 2014 2014q3 2014q4 2015q1 2015q2
Goods Sector -0.9 2.3 1.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.7
Primary Industries 4.5 0.5 3.8 -2.9 0.9 -1.3
Utilities 4.4 0.9 -2.4 3.4 1.7 -4.7
Construction -3.1 0.6 1.7 0.5 0.9 0.6
Manufacturing -1.6 3.8 1.5 0.4 -1.4 -0.6
Of which: Auto Industry -4.0 5.9 2.5 3.3 -6.0 -0.6
Service Sector 1.9 2.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.9
Wholesale Trade -0.2 4.6 2.8 1.2 -3.2 4.2
Retail Trade 2.5 4.0 2.0 1.3 0.2 1.5
Transportation and Warehousing 0.3 3.9 1.2 0.7 -0.1 -0.4
Information and Cultural Industries 2.1 0.4 -1.0 -1.5 0.4 0.6
Finance and Insurance 4.2 3.9 2.0 1.2 0.9 0.7
Real Estate and Leasing 2.3 2.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 1.4
Professional and Administrative Services 1.6 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.5 -0.3
Management of Companies and Enterprises 1.1 1.6 -0.6 3.7 2.0 -2.6
Education 2.6 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.7 -0.1
Health Care and Social Services 1.4 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.5
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 2.5 0.5 0.7 0.1 3.7 5.1
Accommodation and Food 3.0 3.6 0.9 0.2 -1.4 2.2
Other Services 3.6 2.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.1
Public Administration -0.1 0.5 -0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5
Ontario Output at Basic Prices 1.2 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.5

Note: Output by industry is defined as real gross domestic product (GDP) at basic prices in chained 2007 dollars.
GDP at basic prices includes taxes net of subsidies on labour and capital inputs, but not taxes on final products.

Manufacturing Production Lower

Manufacturing Output Down in Second Quarter

Manufacturing sector output decreased 0.6% in the second quarter, following a 1.4% decline in the first quarter.

Six of eleven manufacturing industries had lower production in the quarter, with the largest declines in primary and fabricated metal (-1.4%) and chemical and petroleum products (-1.9%).

Plastic and Rubber Products Output Up in Second Quarter

The strongest manufacturing production gains occurred in plastic and rubber products (+1.6%) and transportation equipment (+0.3%).

Transportation Equipment Output Increases in Second Quarter

Within the transportation equipment industry, declines in the auto industry were offset by gains in other transportation equipment. Output in other transportation equipment, which is primarily composed of the aerospace sector, increased 5.1% in the second quarter.

Automotive vehicle and parts production was 0.6% lower, following a 6.0% decline in the first quarter, partially reflecting temporary closures of plants for retooling.   

Utilities and Primary Output Lower

Utilities Sector Output Down in Second Quarter

Utilities output declined 4.7% in the second quarter, reflecting lower output from electric power and natural gas and water distribution utilities, following extraordinary growth related to the unusually cold weather in the first quarter.

Output from the primary industries also decreased 1.3% in the quarter, with lower output in mining (-2.8%) outweighing gains in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting (+1.2%).

Construction Output Increases

Construction Sector Output Up in Second Quarter

Construction* sector production rose by 0.6%, the sixth consecutive quarterly gain. Higher output in non-residential buildings and engineering (+2.0%) was partly offset by declines in residential building construction (-1.3%).

*Construction industry output is measured by the value added of the industry. Construction investment, as reported in the expenditure-based GDP accounts, measures the spending on new construction projects.

Wholesale and Retail Trade Higher

Wholesale  and Retail Output Up in Second Quarter

Wholesaling activity increased 4.2%, rebounding from a 3.2% decline in the first quarter. The increase was led by motor vehicle and parts and building materials wholesaling. 

Output in the retail trade sector rose by 1.5%, following a 0.2% gain in the previous quarter. Higher sales in motor vehicles and parts along with clothing and accessories led gains in retailing output.

Real Estate and Leasing Output Higher

Real Estate and Leasing Output Rises in Second Quarter

Output in the real estate and leasing sector rose 1.4%, following a 0.2% increase in the first quarter. The second quarter gain was driven by increased activity for real estate services, which was supported by a strong home resale market.

Finance and Insurance Output Up

Finance and Insurance Output Increases in Second Quarter

Output in the finance and insurance sector increased 0.7%, the fifth consecutive quarterly advance. Increased activities in  insurance and investment services supported the second quarter gain.

Other Service Sector Industries

Accommodation and Food Services Output Rises in Second Quarter

In the second quarter, there were also notable gains in accommodation and food services (+2.2%) along with arts, entertainment and recreation (+5.1%) reflecting in part, strong tourism activity.

Lower output in the second quarter was posted in professional and administrative services
(-0.3%) and management of companies and enterprises (-2.6%).

Structure of the Ontario Economy, 2014  Per Cent Share of Nominal GDP

List of Tables

Income and Expenditure Data

Quarterly Data, 2012:1-2015:2

Table 1: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Income-Based)
Table 2: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure-Based)
Table 3: Ontario Gross Domestic Product at Chained 2007 Prices
Table 4: Sources and Disposition of Ontario Household Income
Table 5: Ontario Trade
Table 6: Ontario Trade (Chained 2007 Prices)
Table 7: Ontario Deflators

Annual Data, 2011-2014

Table 8: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Income-Based)
Table 9: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure-Based)
Table 10: Ontario Gross Domestic Product at Chained 2007 Prices
Table 11: Sources and Disposition of Ontario Household Income
Table 12: Ontario Trade
Table 13: Ontario Trade (Chained 2007 Prices)
Table 14: Ontario Deflators

Ontario Production by Industry at 2007 Prices

Table 15: Quarterly Data, 2012:1-2015:2
Table 16: Annual Data, 2011-2014

Historical tables, both annual and quarterly available from 1981.

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Analytical Tables and Charts 2001:I-2015:II

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