Fourth Quarter of 2014
(October, November, December)
Ontario Ministry of Finance
|Real GDP (Chained $2007)||1.3||2.2||0.2||0.8||1.1||0.6|
|Government current spending||0.6||0.7||-0.1||0.5||-0.5||0.7|
|Machinery & equipment||-8.2||0.7||3.6||4.7||3.0||-0.3|
|Intellectual property products||-3.4||-2.1||-0.3||-1.9||0.7||0.2|
|Final Domestic Demand||0.4||1.4||0.1||1.1||0.7||0.6|
|Change in Business inventories (Chained $2007 billions)||3.7||4.5||6.8||4.0||1.7||5.4|
|Nominal GDP ($Current)||2.4||3.6||1.1||0.9||1.5||0.1|
|Compensation of employees||2.7||3.0||1.1||0.7||1.0||0.4|
|Net operating surplus for corporations||0.0||8.0||1.2||2.8||3.2||-3.1|
|Primary household income||2.9||3.4||1.2||0.8||0.9||0.6|
|Household disposable income||2.7||3.2||1.2||0.5||0.9||0.4|
|Implicit price index, GDP||1.1||1.4||1.0||0.2||0.4||-0.5|
Household spending rose 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2014, after increasing 0.8% in the third quarter. Spending on non-durable goods led the fourth quarter gain, driven by a strong increase in gasoline purchases.
Spending on durable goods rose 1.0%, following a 3.1% advance in the third quarter. Purchases of motor vehicles and parts continued to increase strongly in the fourth quarter of 2014.
Household spending on services and semi-durable goods both grew at a 0.5% pace in the fourth quarter.
Residential construction investment spending was unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2014, after advancing 2.3% in the third quarter. Spending on home renovations increased 1.0%, following a 1.2% decline in the third quarter. New home construction rose 0.6%, slowing from a 4.0% rise in the third quarter. These gains were offset by a 2.5% decline in home ownership transfer costs, reflecting a moderation in the home resale market in the fourth quarter of 2014.
Capital spending by Ontario businesses on machinery and equipment edged down 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2014, following three consecutive quarterly gains. Non-residential construction spending edged up 0.1% for the second consecutive quarter. Investment in intellectual property products rose 0.2% after increasing 0.7% in the third quarter.
Businesses added $5.4 billion ($2007) to non-farm inventories in the fourth quarter of 2014, after accumulating $1.7 billion worth of stocks in the third quarter. A significant part of the inventory buildup in the fourth quarter reflected increased stocks of durable goods at the wholesale and retail levels, particularly motor vehicles.
Real exports of goods and services increased 0.4% in the fourth quarter, slowing from a 3.0% gain in the previous quarter. Real imports were also higher, increasing 1.5% in the final quarter of 2014, after rising 1.0% in the third quarter.
International merchandise exports edged down 0.3% in the fourth quarter, following a 5.8% gain in the third quarter of 2014. Exports of automotive products and consumer goods were lower in the fourth quarter, while industrial and electronic equipment exports were higher. International merchandise imports increased 2.5% in the fourth quarter, the third consecutive quarterly advance. Higher imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products, chemicals, automotive products and machinery and equipment contributed to the fourth-quarter advance.
Gross Domestic Product measured in current dollars edged up 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2014, following a strong 1.5% advance in the third quarter.
Compensation of employees rose 0.4%, after increasing 1.0% in the third quarter. Wages and salaries (+0.4%) and employers’ social contributions (+0.6%) both contributed to the fourth quarter gain.
The net operating surplus of corporations decreased 3.1% in the fourth quarter, after five consecutive quarters of growth.
Household disposable income was up 0.4% in the fourth quarter, after rising by 0.9% in the third quarter. Ontario’s household saving rate* declined to 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2014.
*Household saving is calculated in the System of National Accounts as the difference between the amount households receive as current income and their outlays for taxes and personal consumption.
Economy-wide prices, as measured by the GDP implicit price index, declined 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2014, after increasing 0.4% in the third quarter. The implicit price index for final domestic demand edged up 0.1%, following a 0.4% gain in the third quarter.
Household consumer prices edged up 0.1% in the fourth quarter, easing from a 0.2% rise in the third quarter. Prices for motor vehicles, furniture, and clothing all advanced, but were partially offset by lower prices for gasoline in the fourth quarter.
Machinery and equipment prices increased 2.1%, the largest quarterly advance since the fourth quarter of 2008. Non-residential construction prices increased 0.4% in the fourth quarter. Residential construction prices were up 0.8%, with prices for renovations and ownership transfer costs increasing in the fourth quarter.
Both export (+0.4%) and import (+1.3%) prices rose in the fourth quarter, as the Canadian dollar depreciated 4.1% relative to the U.S. dollar during this period.
Real (or volume) output by industry increased 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2014, following gains of 1.0% in the second and third quarters. Output in the service sector advanced 0.7% in the fourth quarter, while output in the goods sector was unchanged.
Higher output in the wholesale trade (+1.3%), finance and insurance (+1.2%) and real estate and leasing (+0.9%) sectors were major contributors to the fourth-quarter gain.
|Of which: Auto Industry||-4.0||5.1||-2.5||4.4||2.2||3.0|
|Transportation and Warehousing||0.3||3.6||0.3||2.2||1.1||0.7|
|Information and Cultural Industries||2.1||3.0||1.7||-0.1||0.0||-0.5|
|Finance and Insurance||4.2||3.8||-0.6||0.0||1.9||1.2|
|Real Estate and Leasing||2.3||2.8||0.7||1.1||1.0||0.9|
|Professional and Administrative Services||1.6||2.0||-0.3||1.3||1.6||0.5|
|Management of Companies and Enterprises||1.1||0.6||1.7||-0.8||-1.0||3.4|
|Health Care and Social Services||1.4||1.6||0.2||0.3||0.4||0.1|
|Arts, Entertainment and Recreation||2.5||1.5||-2.8||0.3||1.1||0.5|
|Accommodation and Food||3.0||3.9||0.8||1.6||1.0||0.3|
|Ontario Output at Basic Prices||1.2||2.3||0.1||1.0||1.0||0.6|
Note: Output by industry is defined as real gross domestic product (GDP) at basic prices in chained 2007 dollars. GDP at basic prices includes taxes net of subsidies on labour and capital inputs, but not taxes on final products.
Manufacturing sector output rose 0.1% in the fourth quarter, following a 1.2% gain in the third quarter.
Four of eleven manufacturing industries increased production in the fourth quarter, with solid gains in machinery (+2.8%) and transportation equipment (+2.5%).
Within the transportation equipment industry, automotive production increased by 3.0%, following strong increases in the previous two quarters. Output in “other transportation equipment”, which is primarily composed of the aerospace sector, declined 0.9% from the third quarter.
Output in the electrical and electronic products manufacturing industry was down 5.6% in the fourth quarter, following three consecutive quarterly gains. There was also lower output in chemical and petroleum (-1.8%) and food and beverage (-0.5%) products.
Utilities output increased by 3.6% in the fourth quarter, following a 2.2% decline in the third quarter. Output by electric power utilities (+4.4%) and natural gas and water distribution utilities (+1.2%) were both higher.
Construction* sector production edged down 0.1% in the fourth quarter, following a 1.1% increase in the third quarter. Declines in residential construction (-0.3%) were partly offset by gains in non-residential building and engineering (+0.1%) construction in the quarter.
*Construction industry output is measured by the value added of the industry. Construction investment, as reported in the expenditure-based GDP accounts, measures the spending on new construction projects.
Wholesaling activity increased 1.3% in the fourth quarter, slowing from a 2.9% advance in the third quarter. Fourth quarter gains were led by building materials and motor vehicle and parts wholesaling.
Output in the retail trade sector rose by 1.0% in the fourth quarter, following a 1.6% gain in the third quarter. Gains in motor vehicle and parts retailing, along with electronics and appliance stores supported the quarterly increase.
Output in the finance and insurance sector increased 1.2% in the fourth quarter, following a 1.9% increase in the third quarter. Higher output in banking services led the fourth quarter increase, while investment services also posted higher output in the quarter.
Output in the real estate and leasing sector rose 0.9% in the fourth quarter.
Professional and administrative services output advanced 0.5% in the fourth quarter, following a 1.6% gain in the third quarter.
Output in the education sector (+1.4%) rose strongly, while health and social services output edged up 0.1% in the fourth quarter.
Table 1: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Income-Based)
Table 2: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure-Based)
Table 3: Ontario Gross Domestic Product at Chained 2007 Prices
Table 4: Sources and Disposition of Ontario Household Income
Table 5: Ontario Trade
Table 6: Ontario Trade (Chained 2007 Prices)
Table 7: Ontario Deflators
Table 8: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Income-Based)
Table 9: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure-Based)
Table 10: Ontario Gross Domestic Product at Chained 2007 Prices
Table 11: Sources and Disposition of Ontario Household Income
Table 12: Ontario Trade
Table 13: Ontario Trade (Chained 2007 Prices)
Table 14: Ontario Deflators