First Quarter of 2014
(January, February, March)
Ontario Ministry of Finance
|Real GDP (Chained $ 2007)||1.3||1.3||0.7||0.5||0.5||0.1|
|Government current spending||1.4||0.0||0.4||0.1||-0.1||-0.2|
|Machinery & equipment||2.0||-1.1||-0.8||-1.5||-3.2||1.1|
|Intellectual property products||-1.7||-4.6||-1.4||1.1||-1.2||0.4|
|Final Domestic Demand||1.3||0.4||0.3||0.1||-0.2||0.0|
|Change in Business inventories (Chained $2007 billions)||4.1||3.5||0.9||2.7||6.6||7.1|
|Nominal GDP ($ Current)||3.0||2.7||0.4||0.6||0.7||1.1|
|Net operating surplus for corporations||-1.0||-1.6||-2.1||1.2||0.6||2.8|
|Primary household income||3.4||2.9||0.3||0.4||0.9||1.4|
|Household disposable income||2.5||2.6||0.0||0.4||0.9||1.2|
|Implicit price index, GDP||1.7||1.4||-0.3||0.1||0.2||0.9|
Real household spending increased 0.2% in the first quarter, following a 0.3% gain in the fourth quarter of 2013.
Spending on consumer durables declined 1.2%, after falling 0.2% in the previous quarter.
Inclement winter weather likely helped to discourage shoppers from making discretionary purchases on large items such as automobiles and furniture in the quarter.
Expenditures on semi-durable goods decreased 1.4%, after six consecutive quarterly advances. Weaker clothing and footwear purchases contributed to the decline.
Spending on non-durables increased 0.9%, with stronger sales of food, natural gas, gasoline and other fuels. A 20.0% jump in natural gas sales was likely due to additional heating requirements resulting from the abnormally cold weather in the quarter.
Household spending on services rose 0.3%.
Real residential construction investment decreased 1.1%, following a 1.3% decline in the previous quarter. New home construction and home ownership transfer costs both fell in the first quarter. This was partially offset by a rise in renovation activity in the quarter.
Real capital spending by Ontario businesses on machinery and equipment increased 1.1% in the first quarter, partially rebounding from four consecutive quarterly declines. Investment in non-residential construction was also stronger, rising 0.3% in the quarter, the first gain in the past seven quarters.
Businesses increased inventories by $7.1 billion in the first quarter, after accumulating $6.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2013. This is the largest accumulation of inventories over two consecutive quarters since 2007Q4-2008Q1. The accumulation of inventory stocks was widespread across manufacturers, retailers and wholesalers. Retail car dealers and auto wholesalers both reported a rise in stocks.
Real exports of goods and services decreased 1.4%, after rising 1.0% in the fourth quarter of 2013. Real imports were also weaker, down 1.4%, following a 0.8% gain in the previous quarter. The weather related contraction of the U.S. economy likely contributed to the setback to trade.
International merchandise exports fell 3.0%, following a 0.6% advance in the fourth quarter of 2013. Exports of automotive products, chemicals and industrial machinery and equipment were all weaker in the quarter. Higher exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products and consumer goods helped moderate the overall decline.
International merchandise imports declined 2.1% in the first quarter, following a 1.6% increase in the previous quarter. Weaker imports of automotive, electronic and electrical equipment, and chemical and rubber products contributed to the decline.
Gross Domestic Product measured in current dollars increased 1.1% in the first quarter, accelerating from a 0.7% pace in the final quarter of 2013.
Compensation of employees increased 1.3%, after rising 0.7% in the previous quarter. A one-time payment by the federal government to fund its employees’ pension plan accounted for about 40% of the rise in labour income in the first quarter.
The net operating surplus of corporations advanced a solid 2.8% in the quarter, the strongest gain since the fourth quarter of 2010.
Household disposable income rose 1.2%, following a 0.9% increase in the previous quarter. Ontario’s household saving rate* (the ratio of savings to household disposable income) rose to 4.6% from 4.2% in the fourth quarter of 2013.
*Note: Household saving is calculated in the System of National Accounts as the difference between the amount households receive as current income and their outlays for taxes and personal consumption.
Economy-wide prices, as measured by the GDP implicit price index, rose 0.9% in the first quarter, after advancing 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2013. Higher domestic prices along with stronger export prices contributed to the overall price gain.
The implicit price index for final domestic demand increased 1.0%, after edging up 0.2% in the previous quarter.
Prices for household consumer expenditures rose 0.7%, following a 0.2% increase in the previous quarter. Prices were higher for clothing and footwear, furniture, electricity and gasoline in the first quarter.
Machinery and equipment prices increased 1.7%, while non-residential construction (+0.7%) and residential construction (+1.3%) prices also advanced in the quarter.
Both export (+2.3%) and import (+2.7%) prices increased strongly in the first quarter, posting the highest rates of increase in almost six years. A 4.9% depreciation in the Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar contributed to the increase in both export and import prices.
Real output by industry edged up 0.1% in the first quarter of 2014, following a 0.5% gain in the fourth quarter of 2013. Output in both the service (+0.2%) and goods-producing (+0.1%) sectors advanced in the first quarter.
The information and culture (+2.2%), real estate (+0.6%), construction (+0.7%) and finance and insurance (+0.4%) sectors supported first quarter growth. Lower output was recorded in professional and administrative services (-0.6%), retail (-0.7%) and wholesale (-0.5%) trade.
|Of which: Auto Industry||18.5||-6.0||0.1||0.1||1.4||-3.2|
|Transportation and Warehousing||2.2||0.3||-0.2||-0.8||0.4||0.1|
|Information and Cultural Industries||1.7||1.7||1.3||3.1||-0.4||2.2|
|Finance and Insurance||2.0||4.5||1.3||2.0||2.1||0.4|
|Real Estate and Leasing||2.3||2.4||1.0||0.5||0.2||0.6|
|Professional and Administrative Services||1.3||1.5||0.5||0.4||-0.1||-0.6|
|Management of Companies and Enterprises||-0.7||1.4||0.1||-0.7||0.2||2.5|
|Health Care and Social Services||1.6||1.6||0.8||0.8||0.5||0.5|
|Arts, Entertainment and Recreation||-0.9||3.1||2.6||2.6||2.5||-3.3|
|Accommodation and Food||3.0||3.0||1.2||0.5||0.6||0.5|
|Ontario Output at Basic Prices||1.4||1.2||0.6||0.5||0.5||0.1|
Note: Output by industry is defined as real gross domestic product (GDP) at basic prices in chained 2007 dollars. GDP at basic prices includes taxes net of subsidies on labour and capital inputs, but not taxes on final products.
Manufacturing sector output edged higher by 0.1%, following a 0.4% gain in the fourth quarter of 2013.
Five of eleven manufacturing industries increased production in the first quarter, led by the food and beverage industry (+3.2%). Machinery (+2.8%) and paper and printing (+3.0%) also contributed to the gain.
Output in the transportation equipment industry fell by 1.9%, the sixth decline in the past seven quarters. Production in the automotive industry was down 3.2%, partially offset by a 5.7% increase in “other transportation equipment”.
Output of the chemical and petroleum manufacturing industry fell 2.3% due to a decline in chemical production.
Lower plastic and rubber product output (-1.5%) also moderated first quarter growth in the manufacturing sector.
Wholesaling activity declined by 0.5% in the quarter, following a 0.5% gain in the fourth quarter. Declines were posted in machinery and equipment, and motor vehicle and parts wholesaling.
Production in the retail trade sector fell 0.7%, following six consecutive quarterly gains. Clothing, building materials and motor vehicle and parts retailers all contributed to the decline.
Utilities output edged up 0.1% in the first quarter, after a 2.4% gain in the final quarter of 2013. A strong increase in natural gas and water distribution (+8.2%) was moderated by a decline in electric power utilities (-3.0%).
Construction sector output advanced 0.7%, following four consecutive quarterly declines. A gain in residential construction (+2.2%) was partially offset by a decline in non-residential building and engineering construction (-0.2%).
Mining output rose by 1.4% following a 1.1% increase in the fourth quarter. First quarter output was supported by gains in gold and silver ore mining.
Note: Construction industry output is measured by the value added of the industry. Construction investment, as reported in the expenditure-based GDP accounts, measures the spending on new construction projects.
Output in the finance and insurance sector increased 0.4%, following a 2.1% gain in the previous quarter. Higher output in investment services led the gain, while banking industry output also rose in the quarter. Output by the finance and insurance sector has increased 11.0% since the second quarter of 2011.
Production in the real estate and leasing sector rose 0.6%, following a gain of 0.2% in the previous quarter.
Information and culture output advanced by 2.2% in the first quarter, the fourth gain in the past five quarters.
Output in the arts, entertainment and recreation sector fell by 3.3% in the first quarter, in part due to the National Hockey League taking a hiatus while players took part in the Sochi Winter Olympics.
Table 1: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Income-Based)
Table 2: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure-Based)
Table 3: Ontario Gross Domestic Product at Chained 2007 Prices
Table 4: Sources and Disposition of Ontario Household Income
Table 5: Ontario Trade
Table 6: Ontario Deflators
Table 7: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Income-Based)
Table 8: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure-Based)
Table 9: Ontario Gross Domestic Product at Chained 2007 Prices
Table 10: Sources and Disposition of Ontario Household Income
Table 11: Ontario Trade
Table 12: Ontario Deflators