: Ontario Economic Accounts - Fourth Quarter of 2016

Fourth Quarter of 2016
(October, November, December)
Ontario Ministry of Finance

Table of Contents

ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Highlights

Ontario Real GDP Continues to Advance

Fourth Quarter Highlights
  • Ontario’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.5% in the fourth quarter (October to December) of 2016, after rising 0.7% in the third quarter.
  • Continued growth in household spending supported the overall increase in real GDP. 
  • Nominal GDP increased 1.0%. Compensation of employees advanced by 2.1%, while the net operating surplus of corporations rose by 0.3%.
  • Economic production, measured on an industry basis, advanced 0.4%. Output in the service sector increased 0.6%, which was partially offset by a 0.5% decline in the goods-producing industries.
2016 Annual Highlights
  • Ontario’s real GDP advanced by 2.7% in 2016, accelerating from a 2.5% gain in 2015.
  • Growth in 2016 was broadly-based, supported by gains in consumer spending, exports, business investment and government spending.
  • Nominal GDP rose by 4.6% in 2016, with gains in compensation of employees (+4.2%) and the net operating surplus of corporations (+9.2%).
  • Economic production, measured on an industry basis, increased 2.7% in 2016, with gains in both the goods (+2.3%) and service (+2.8%) producing industries.
  • Ontario’s real GDP growth outpaced all G7 countries in 2016.

Expenditure Details

Ontario’s Real GDP Boosted by Consumer Spending

Ontario’s real GDP increased 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016, supported by growth in consumer spending.

Ontario’s household consumption spending increased by a solid 1.1%, following a 0.4% gain the previous quarter. Consumer spending on durables and semi-durables both rose by 2.5%, while spending on non-durables edged up 0.1%. Spending on services increased 0.9%.

Business investment decreased for the second consecutive quarter (-0.7%), following gains earlier in the year. Non-residential investment spending (-4.1%) was the largest drag on business investment, while machinery and equipment (-1.9%) and intellectual property product (-0.7%) investment also declined. This was partially offset by a 1.2% gain in residential construction investment, reflecting growth in new construction and resale activity. Government spending advanced by 0.8%, with gains in both current (+0.6%) and capital (+1.7%) expenditures.

Exports declined by 0.7%, offsetting a 0.7% gain in the third quarter. International exports of goods and services decreased by 1.5%, led by lower automotive and consumer goods exports. Interprovincial exports of goods and services increased by 1.1% in the quarter. Imports were 1.5% lower, the third consecutive quarterly decline.

Businesses drew down non-farm inventories by $2.7 billion, after an accumulation of $3.0 billion in the third quarter.

Final domestic demand, which excludes trade and inventories, rose 0.7% in the fourth quarter.

Income Details

Nominal GDP Continues to Rise

GDP in current dollars advanced 1.0% in the fourth quarter, following a 1.1% increase in the third quarter.

Compensation of employees, which includes both wages and salaries, and supplementary labour income, increased 2.1%, after no growth in the third quarter. Net mixed income, which is comprised of farm, non-farm and rental income, rose 0.9%, following a 0.1% increase in the third quarter.

Business sector profits, measured by net operating surplus of corporations, advanced 0.3%, after a 5.9% gain in the third quarter.

Household disposable income increased 2.2%, after rising 1.4% in the third quarter.

Household disposable income advanced at a stronger pace than consumption expenditure. As a result, the household savings rate rose 0.4 percentage points to 4.6%.

Price Details

Economy-Wide Prices Advance Modestly

Economy-wide prices, as measured by the implicit price index for GDP, rose 0.4% in the fourth quarter, following a similar increase in the third quarter.

Prices for household expenditures advanced 0.5%, following a 0.4% gain in the third quarter. Prices for motor vehicles, furniture, gasoline and natural gas increased, while prices for food and beverages, motor vehicle parts and clothing decreased in the quarter.

Business investment prices rose 1.1%, with advances in machinery and equipment (+1.1%) and residential construction (+1.9%), partially offset by a decline in non-residential construction (-0.9%).

In the trade sector, prices were higher for both exports (+0.5%) and imports (+1.4%). During this period the Canadian dollar depreciated by 2.2% against its U.S. counterpart.

Industry Details

Service Industries Lead Growth

Based on production by industry, Ontario real GDP expanded 0.4% in the fourth quarter, after increasing 0.6% in the third quarter. Output in the service-producing sector advanced by 0.6%, while the goods-producing industries declined by 0.5% in the quarter.

Almost all service-producing industries increased output in the fourth quarter, with the largest contribution from real estate, rental and leasing (+1.0%). Retail trade (+1.3%), professional and administrative services (+0.8%), finance and insurance (+0.6%) and wholesale trade (+0.5%) also posted notable increases.

In the goods-producing sector, manufacturing production declined by 0.6%, driven by lower output in the primary and fabricated metal (-2.9%) and chemical and petroleum (-2.3%) industries. Transportation equipment (-0.8%) also declined in the quarter, with auto industry output decreasing 1.5%. Utilities output declined by 4.6%, after increasing 5.9% in the third quarter.

Declines in manufacturing and utilities production were partially offset by increased construction output (+0.5%), as both non-residential and residential construction rose. Primary sector (+0.3%) output also advanced in the quarter, driven by a 0.6% increase in mining.

Annual Overview

Consumer Spending and Exports Drive 2016 Real GDP Growth

Ontario’s real GDP advanced by 2.7% in 2016, improving from a 2.5% gain in 2015. Growth was relatively widespread, led by consumer spending and exports, while business investment and government spending also increased.

Consumer spending advanced by 2.8%, with gains in durables (+6.1%), semi-durables (+5.7%), non-durables (+0.6%) and services (+2.6%). Business investment rose 2.3%, led by a 7.9% increase in residential construction, reflecting solid growth in new construction and resale activity. Non-residential and machinery and equipment spending by businesses both declined by 4.0%. Government spending advanced by 1.6% in 2016, with gains in current (+1.7%) and capital (+0.9%) spending.

Exports rose by 3.0%, led by higher international exports of goods and services, including automotive and consumer goods. Imports were 1.4% higher in 2016.

GDP in current dollars advanced 4.6%, following a 4.9% increase in 2015.

Compensation of employees increased by 4.2%, matching the 2015 gain. Net operating surplus of corporations, rose strongly for the third consecutive year, up 9.2% in 2016.

Household disposable income increased 5.4%, faster than consumption spending, bringing the household savings rate up 1.0 percentage point to 4.0%.

Economy wide prices were 1.8% higher, following a 2.3% increase in 2015.

Real GDP on an industry basis advanced 2.7% in 2016. Goods sector production advanced 2.3%, supported by the manufacturing and constructions industries. Service sector growth (+2.8%) was broad‑based, with almost all industries reporting gains.

Jurisdictional Comparisons

Ontario Real GDP Growth Outpaces All G7 Countries in 2016

In the fourth quarter, Ontario’s real GDP (+0.5%) grew faster than all G7 countries, except for the United Kingdom (+0.7%) and Canada as a whole (+0.6%).

Across the G7 countries, average real GDP growth slowed from 0.6% in the third quarter to 0.4%. The United Kingdom led the G7, with real GDP rising 0.7%, after a 0.6% gain in the third quarter. Economic growth accelerated in Germany (+0.4% from +0.1%) and France (+0.4% from +0.2%). Japan’s real GDP growth rate stayed at 0.3%, while growth in Italy moderated to 0.2%.

Across Canada, real GDP advanced 0.6%, after a 0.9% gain in the third quarter. Growth was supported by household spending (+0.6%) and net trade, as exports rose 0.3% and imports declined 3.5%. Business investment (-2.1%) weighed on overall growth for the ninth consecutive quarter. Quebec’s real GDP rose 0.5% in the fourth quarter, led by household spending (+0.8%). Net trade also contributed to growth, as exports advanced (+1.3%) and imports declined (-0.5%).

In the United States, real GDP advanced 0.5%, following a 0.9% gain in the previous quarter. Personal consumption expenditure continued to be the main contributor to growth, increasing 0.9%. Private fixed investment (+0.7%) also added to the overall gain, while exports (-1.1%) dampened growth in the fourth quarter.  

On an annual basis, Ontario’s real GDP grew by 2.7% in 2016, outpacing all of the G7 countries.

Employment

Positive Start to 2017 for Ontario’s Labour Market

Ontario’s employment advanced by 36,400 in the first quarter of 2017, following an annual gain of 76,400 in 2016.

Ontario’s unemployment rate has improved considerably. As of March 2017, Ontario’s unemployment rate was 6.4%, below the national average for the 24th consecutive month.


As of March 2017, employment was 6.3% (+418,500 jobs) above the pre-recession peak and 10.8% (+691,000 jobs) above the recessionary low.

Since the recessionary low, the majority of jobs created were full-time positions (+676,800), while part-time employment (+14,100) also increased. Most of these net new jobs were in the private sector (+503,600) and in industries paying above–average wages (+538,900).

Trade

Manufacturing, Retail and Wholesale Trade Advance in January

Manufacturing sales advanced 4.0% in 2016, following a 1.7% gain in 2015. In January 2017, sales advanced further, up 1.0%, supported by gains in petroleum and coal, food and chemical products.

In 2016, retail sales advanced 4.7% and wholesale trade by 5.7%. Solid gains continued in the first month of 2017, with retail trade advancing 1.7% and wholesale trade increasing 6.0%. Similar to 2016, the January increases continued to be driven by solid gains in the motor vehicle and parts industries.

Ontario’s international merchandise exports advanced 4.2% in 2016, supported by steady growth in the U.S. economy and a competitive Canadian dollar. The annual increase in exports was led by increases to the United States (+4.7%), the United Kingdom (+9.4%) and Mexico (+20.9%). On a year-to-date basis, exports declined by 8.5% over the first two month of 2017, compared to the same time last year.

Housing

Ontario’s Housing Market Still Advancing Strongly

Housing market activity in Ontario continued to advance early in 2017, following a year of rising housing resales and prices. The housing market continues to be supported by demographic trends, employment gains, higher incomes and low mortgage rates.

Sales of existing homes rose 9.7% in 2016, the fastest pace of growth since 2002. Gains in 2016 were widespread across most Ontario markets, including the Greater Toronto Area (+11.7%). Over the first two months of 2017, home resales advanced 9.7% compared to the same period a year ago.

Home resale prices in Ontario reached an average of $534,700 in 2016, a 15.3% increase over 2015. Over the first two months of 2017, prices were 22.3% higher than a year earlier. 

 

Housing starts advanced 6.8% in 2016, as a gain in single-detached starts (16.0%), was partially offset by a small decline in multiple-unit starts (-0.4%). Over the first two months of 2017, housing starts advanced by 34.2%, with gains in both singles (+27.7%) and multiples (+37.2%) compared to the same period a year earlier.

Global Economic Developments

Steady Global Economy

Global economic growth was little-changed in 2016 compared to 2015, though growth remained much slower compared to the years immediately following the 2008-09 global financial crisis and recession. Despite slowing in recent years, growth in both China and India has remained much higher than most countries. Global political uncertainty and trade protectionism are significant risks to future economic performance.

Conditions continue to improve in the U.S. Real GDP growth has been somewhat subdued, slowing to 0.5% in the fourth quarter from 0.9% in the third quarter. Domestic demand has remained solid while net trade, due in part to the strong U.S. dollar, has diminished growth. US payroll employment continues to advance, increasing by 552,700 jobs in the first quarter of 2017, while the unemployment rate was a low 4.5% in March.

In the first quarter of 2017, oil prices traded between $50/bbl and $55/bbl, as expectations for an OPEC production decrease kept prices elevated. However, rapidly rising output and record inventories in the U.S. caused oil prices to ease to well below $50/bbl by late March.

Global Financial Conditions Strong

Since last October, the Canadian dollar followed oil prices lower, trading around 74 to 75 cents US in late March. Over the last year, the Canadian dollar has outperformed many other currencies in the face of considerable policy uncertainty from the U.S. and E.U.

Global interest rates increased in November and December, with the yield on 10-year U.S. treasuries rising to around 2.5% from 1.8% in early November 2016. Stronger prospects for growth and higher inflation expectations contributed to the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates in March. Though Canadian interest rates have been fairly stable, yields remain lower than in the U.S. While interest rates have risen across many advanced economies, modest economic growth and inflation prospects, as well as elevated uncertainty, are weighing on bond yields in those jurisdictions.

In the first quarter of 2017, equity markets diverged, with the U.S. S&P 500 up almost 5% since early January while the Canadian TSX edged down. Uncertainty around U.S. economic policy and the outcome of Brexit negotiations, as well as geopolitical tensions remain risks.

In Focus

A Closer Look at Venture Capital Investments in Ontario

Venture capital (VC) is a form of private equity that predominately focuses on investing in high-risk firms, including new and young companies. These firms are generally seen as highly innovative and have high capacity for growth. However, due to their inherent risks, they may encounter difficulties with accessing traditional sources of capital such as bank loans. Venture capital funds help bridge this gap and provide entrepreneurial firms with sources of capital and strategic guidance that can help them grow and succeed.

In 2016, Ontario-based firms received over $1.8 billion in VC investments. This was the single largest year for VC investment in Ontario since 2001. Investment activities increased by 48% compared to 2015.

Ontario played a leading role in VC investment across Canada in 2016, accounting for 50% of all VC invested in Canada. Quebec accounted for 30%, followed by British Columbia at 13% and the rest of Canada at 7%.

 

In 2015, Ontario’s VC investments as a percentage GDP, or VC intensity, was 0.16%. This was greater than Canada’s overall VC intensity (0.14%) for 2015. Compared to country-level data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Canada would be ranked third. Ontario was below Israel and the United States in VC intensity, but significantly above other countries that are considered very innovative, including South Korea, Finland, and Sweden.

Strong VC investment indicates that investors are recognizing the potential of Ontario’s entrepreneurial firms, which will support the province’s transition to a knowledge-based economy.

Appendix

Structure of the Ontario Economy

How GDP is Measured

The Ontario Economic Accounts provide measurements of GDP using three different methodologies: by expenditure, income and industry.

The GDP by expenditure approach defines GDP as the aggregate of all expenditures on final consumption, gross capital formation and net trade by consumers, governments and businesses that occur within Ontario’s economy over a given time period. This measurement of GDP can also be defined as the sum of consumer spending, gross investment, government spending and net trade.

The GDP by income approach equates GDP to the total income earned through contributions to production within Ontario’s economy by labour and capital over a given time period. That is, GDP is the sum of all wages and salaries paid to employees, the gross operating surplus of businesses, gross mixed income and indirect taxes less subsidies.

The GDP by industry approach measures GDP by calculating the total output of the goods and services producing industries within Ontario’s economy and subtracting the cost of intermediate inputs used in final production. This approach can also be referred to as the value-added approach as it quantifies the additional value generated by industries through the production of final products within the economy.

For a full list of definitions used in the Ontario Economic Accounts, please see Statistics Canada’s System of Macroeconomic Accounts Glossary at http://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/nea/gloss/gloss_a.

List of Data Tables

Income and Expenditure Data

Quarterly Data, 2013:1–2016:4

Table 1: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Income-Based)
Table 2: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure-Based)
Table 3: Ontario Gross Domestic Product at Chained 2007 Prices
Table 4: Sources and Disposition of Ontario Household Income
Table 5: Ontario Trade
Table 6: Ontario Trade (Chained 2007 Prices)
Table 7: Ontario Deflators

Annual Data, 2013-2016

Table 8: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Income-Based)
Table 9: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure-Based)
Table 10: Ontario Gross Domestic Product at Chained 2007 Prices
Table 11: Sources and Disposition of Ontario Household Income
Table 12: Ontario Trade
Table 13: Ontario Trade (Chained 2007 Prices)
Table 14: Ontario Deflators

Ontario Production by Industry at 2007 Prices

Table 15: Quarterly Data, Quarterly Data, 2013:1-2016:4
Table 16: Annual Data, Annual Data, 2013-2016

Historical tables, both annual and quarterly available from 1981.
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Graphic Descriptions

Ontario GDP, Fourth Quarter 2016

The chart indicates the change in real and nominal GDP in the fourth quarter of 2016. Real GDP rose 0.5%, while nominal GDP increased 1.0% in the quarter.

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Ontario GDP, 2016

The chart indicates the annual growth in real and nominal GDP in 2016. Real GDP rose 2.7%, while nominal GDP increased 4.6% in the year.

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Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly real GDP growth in per cent from the first quarter of 2013 to the fourth quarter of 2016. Ontario has experienced real GDP growth over the entire period. Real GDP rose 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016, following a 0.7% increase in the third quarter of 2016. The third quarter of 2014 recorded the strongest gain of 1.1% and the first quarters of 2014 and 2015 recorded the weakest gain of 0.2%.

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Real GDP Change by Expenditure Component

The horizontal bar chart depicts the per cent change in Ontario’s real GDP and its components for the fourth quarter of 2016. Real GDP rose 0.5% in the quarter, with increases in household consumption (+1.1%) and government (+0.8%). Business investment (-0.7%), exports (-0.7%) and imports (-1.5%) declined in the quarter.

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Real Export and Import Growth

The bar chart shows the quarterly per cent change in real exports and imports from the first quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2016. Exports decreased 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2016, while imports declined 1.5%.

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Nominal GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly nominal GDP growth in per cent from the first quarter of 2013 to the fourth quarter of 2016. Ontario has experienced nominal GDP growth over the entire period. Nominal GDP rose 1.0% in the fourth quarter of 2016, following a 1.1% increase in the third quarter of 2016. The third quarter of 2014 recorded the strongest gain of 2.0% and the second quarter of 2013 recorded the weakest gain of 0.2%.

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Nominal GDP Change by Income Component

The horizontal bar chart depicts the per cent change in nominal GDP and its components for the fourth quarter of 2016. Nominal GDP rose 1.0%, with increases in compensation of employees (+2.1%), net operating surplus (+0.3%), net mixed income (+0.9%) and indirect taxes less subsidies (+0.7%).

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Compensation of Employees Growth

The bar chart shows Ontario’s quarterly growth of employee compensation in per cent from the first quarter of 2013 to the fourth quarter of 2016. Compensation of employees rose 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2016, following no growth in the third quarter of 2016. The first quarter of 2015 recorded the strongest gain of 1.7%.

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Economy-Wide Price Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly growth of economy-wide prices in per cent from the first quarter of 2013 to the fourth quarter of 2016. Ontario posted a 0.4% increase in economy-wide prices in the fourth quarter of 2016, following a 0.4% rise in the previous quarter. Since the first quarter of 2013, the strongest growth in prices was recorded in the first quarter of 2014 (+1.3%), while the largest decline was posted in the second quarter of 2013 (-0.4%).

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Price Change by Expenditure Component

The horizontal bar chart shows the per cent change in prices by expenditure component for the fourth quarter of 2016. The overall GDP deflator rose 0.4%. Prices increased for household consumption (+0.5%), government (+1.1%), business investment (+1.1%), exports (+0.5%) and imports (+1.4%).

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Export and Import Price Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly growth of export and import prices in per cent from the first quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2016. In the fourth quarter of 2016, import prices rose 1.4%, while export prices increased 0.5%. Since 2014, both export and import prices have declined in only three quarters.

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Real GDP Growth by Industry

The bar chart depicts Ontario’s quarterly growth of real GDP by industry in per cent from the first quarter of 2013 to the fourth quarter of 2016. Ontario real GDP advanced 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2016, following a 0.6% gain in the third quarter.  Over the entire period, real GDP by industry has grown consistently, with the strongest gain of 1.1% recorded in the third quarter of 2014 and the weakest gain of 0.1% posted in the first quarter of 2014 and the second quarter of 2016.

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Real GDP Change by Industry

The horizontal bar chart illustrates the per cent change in real GDP by industry category for the fourth quarter of 2016. The output of all industries grew 0.4% in the quarter, with output from service industries rising 0.6% and goods-producing industries declining 0.5%. The change in output of each industry is as follows: real estate, rental and leasing (+1.0%), health, education and public administration (+0.4%), wholesale and retail trade (+0.8%),  professional and administrative services (+0.8%), finance and insurance (+0.6%),  other services (+0.1%), primary goods (+0.3%), construction (+0.5%), manufacturing (-0.6%) and utilities (-4.6%).

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Real GDP Change by Manufacturing Industry

The horizontal bar chart shows the per cent change in real GDP by manufacturing industry for the fourth quarter of 2016. In total, output by manufacturing industries declined 0.6% in the quarter. The change in output of each manufacturing industry is as follows: textile, clothing and leather (+4.3%), wood and furniture (+2.9%), other manufacturing (+2.7%), electrical and electronic (+1.4%), plastic and rubber (+1.2%), paper and printing (-0.2%), transportation equipment (-0.8%), machinery (-0.8%), food, beverage and tobacco (-1.1%), chemical and petroleum (-2.3%) and primary and fabricated metal (-2.9%).

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Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s annual real GDP growth in per cent from 2000 to 2016. Real GDP rose 2.7% in 2016, following a 2.5% increase in 2015. The strongest gain of 6.3% occurred in 2000, while the only decline of 3.1% occurred in 2009.

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Real GDP Change by Expenditure Component

The horizontal bar chart depicts the per cent change in Ontario’s real GDP and its components for 2016. Real GDP rose 2.7% in the year, with gains in household consumption (+2.8%) business investment (+2.3%), government (+1.6%), exports (+3.0%) and imports (+1.4%).

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Nominal GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s annual nominal GDP growth in per cent from 2000 to 2016. Nominal GDP rose 4.6% in 2016, following a 4.9% increase in 2015. The strongest gain of 8.1% occurred in 2000, while the only decline of 1.7% occurred in 2009.

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Fourth Quarter Real GDP Growth, G7 and Ontario

The bar chart shows the quarterly per cent change in real GDP for all G7 countries and Ontario for the fourth quarter of 2016. The change in real GDP for each jurisdiction is as follows: Italy (+0.2%), Japan (+0.3%), France (+0.4%), Germany (+0.4%), United States (+0.5%), Ontario (+0.5%), Canada (+0.6%) and United Kingdom (+0.7%).

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2016 Real GDP Growth, G7 and Ontario

The bar chart shows the annual per cent change in real GDP for all G7 countries and Ontario for 2016. The change in real GDP for each jurisdiction is as follows: Italy (+0.9%), Japan (+1.0%), France (+1.2%), Canada (+1.4%), United States (+1.6%), United Kingdom (+1.8%), Germany (+1.9%) and Ontario (+2.7%).

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Ontario’s Labour Force

The chart indicates the change in Ontario’s employment in the first quarter of 2017 and unemployment rate in March 2017. Ontario’s employment rose by 36, 400 net new jobs in the quarter, while the unemployment rate was 6.4% in March 2017.

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Ontario’s Labour Market Strengthening

The combination line and area chart show Ontario’s unemployment rate (line chart) and employment (area chart) from January 2008 to March 2017. Ontario’s unemployment rate has trended downwards since the recession, reaching 6.4% in March 2017. Employment in Ontario has risen steadily since the recession, reaching over 7 million workers in March 2017, putting it well over the pre-recession level of roughly 6.6 million.

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Employment Gains Concentrated in Full-Time, Private Sector, Above Average Wage Jobs

The bar chart shows different characteristics of Ontario employment gains since June 2009. Total employment increased by 691,000 since June 2009, with full-time employment up by 677,000, while part-time employment rose by 14,000. Private-sector employment increased by 504,000, while public-sector employment rose by 95,000 and self-employment was up by 92,000. Employment in above-average wage industries rose by 539,000 compared to a 152,000 employment increase in below-average wage industries.

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Manufacturing Sales

The line chart shows Ontario’s manufacturing sales in billions of dollars from January 2013 to January 2017. Ontario’s manufacturing sales have trended upwards since January 2013, with most of the growth occurring at the end of 2015 and beginning of 2016. Following the strong start to 2016, manufacturing sales declined significantly before resuming an upward trend throughout the rest of the year. On a monthly basis, Ontario’s manufacturing sales rose 1.0% in January 2017.

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Retail Sales

The line chart shows Ontario’s retail sales in billions of dollars from January 2013 to January 2017. Ontario’s retail sales have steadily trended upwards since January 2013. On a monthly basis, Ontario’s retail sales rose 1.7% in January 2017.

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Wholesale Trade

The line chart shows Ontario’s wholesale trade in billions of dollars from January 2013 to January 2017. Ontario’s wholesale trade has steadily trended upwards since January 2013. On a monthly basis, Ontario’s wholesale trade rose 6.0% in January 2017.

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Home Resales

The line chart shows Ontario’s home resales in units from January 2013 to February 2017. Ontario’s home resales have grown from about 16,000 units in January 2013 to over 22,000 in February 2017. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s home resales rose 9.7% over the first two months of 2017, compared to the same period one year ago.

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Home Resale Prices

The line chart shows Ontario’s average home resale prices in dollars from January 2013 to February 2017. Ontario’s home resale prices have grown from under $400,000 in January 2013 to over $620,000 in February 2017. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s home resale prices rose 22.3% over the first two months of 2017, compared to the same period one year ago.

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Housing Starts

The line chart shows Ontario’s housing starts in thousands of units (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) from January 2013 to February 2017. Ontario’s housing starts have exhibited a considerable amount of volatility, reaching a peak of over 100,000 units in January 2017 and a low of roughly 42,000 in March 2014. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s housing starts rose 34.2% over the first two months of 2017, compared to the same period one year ago.

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Real GDP Growth

The bar chart shows the annual per cent change in real GDP for the world, advanced economies and emerging economies as defined by the International Monetary Fund for 2010 to 2013, 2015 and 2016. The world economy grew by an average of 4.0% from 2010 to 2013, 3.2% in 2015 and is expected to increase 3.1% in 2016. Advanced economies increased 1.8% on average from 2010 to 2013, 2.1% in 2015 and are expected to increase 1.6% in 2016. Emerging economies advanced 5.7% on average from 2010 to 2013, 4.0% in 2015 and are expected to increase 4.2% in 2016.

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U.S. GDP and Final Domestic Sales

The bar chart shows the annualized quarterly growth rate for real GDP and final domestic sales for the United States from the first quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2016. Final domestic sales have experienced consistent positive growth throughout the entire period, while real GDP posted a single decline in the first quarter of 2014.

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U.S. Labour Market

This bar and line chart shows the U.S. unemployment rate (line chart) and employment (bar chart) from January 2015 to March 2017. Over this period, the unemployment rate has trended downwards while employment has continued to rise. In March, employment advanced by 98,000 jobs and the unemployment rate was 4.5%.

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Exchange Rates

The line chart shows the daily exchange rate, in US dollars indexed to January 2, 2016, for the Canadian Dollar, Euro, Mexican Peso and UK Pound over the January 2016 to March 2017 period. Most currencies climbed against the US dollar over the first four months of 2016, before they started trending downwards.

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Government Bond Yields

The line chart shows the daily rate of 10-year government bonds from the U.S., Ontario, Canada the U.K. and Germany from January 2015 to March 2017. All bond yields have remained relatively stable since the end of 2016. Generally, government bond yields have been the highest in the United States, followed by Ontario, Canada, the U.K. and Germany.

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Stock Indexes

The line chart shows the daily value of the S&P 500 and TSX stock indexes from January 2015 to March 2017. Both indexes represented in the chart follow a similar trend, declining to their lowest values at the beginning 2016. Since then, equity markets have trended upwards.

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Venture Capital Investment in Ontario

The line chart illustrates the growth in Ontario’s venture capital investment from 2002 to 2016. Investment remained relatively stable over the 2002 to 2013 period and then accelerated quickly over the 2014 to 2016 period.

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Share of National Venture Capital Investment

The bar chart illustrates the share of national venture capital investment for Ontario, Quebec, BC and the rest of Canada in 2016.Ontario had the largest share at 50%, followed by Quebec (30%), British Columbia (13%) and the rest of Canada (7%).

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Venture Capital Investment as a Percentage of GDP

The bar chart illustrates venture capital investment as a percentage of GDP for a number of countries and Ontario in 2015. Israel (0.38%) had the largest share, followed by the United States (0.33%), Ontario (0.16%), Canada (0.14%), South Korea (0.08%), Finland (0.05%), Switzerland (0.04%) and Sweden (0.04%).

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Per Cent Share of Nominal GDP, 2015

The pie chart illustrates Ontario’s shares of nominal GDP by industry in 2015. The good-producing industries accounted for 22.8% of nominal GDP, including primary (1.9%), utilities (2.0%), construction (6.8%) and manufacturing (12.1%). The service producing industries accounted for 77.2% of nominal GDP, including wholesale and retail trade (11.7%), transportation and warehousing (3.9%), information and culture (3.8%), finance and insurance (9.5%), real estate and rental and leasing (13.2%), health and education (12.6%), public administration (7.2%) and other services (15.3%).

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GDP measurement methods

  • Expenditure Approach
    • Sum of expenditures of all sectors of the economy
    • Consumer Spending + Investment + Government Spending + Exports – Imports
  • Income Approach
    • Sum of all incomes
    • Wage and Salaries + Profits + Mixed Incomes
  • Production Approach (GDP by Industry)
    • Sum of value added in all industry sectors
    • Output of Goods Producing Industries + Output of Services Producing Industries – Intermediate Inputs

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