: Ontario Economic Accounts

First Quarter of 2017
(January, February, March)
Ontario Ministry of Finance

Table of Contents

ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Highlights

Solid Real GDP Growth in Ontario

  • Ontario’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 1.0% in the first quarter (January, February, March) of 2017, following a 0.5% increase in the fourth quarter of 2016.
  • Solid growth in residential construction, along with continued strength in consumer spending supported the first quarter gain.
  • Nominal GDP increased 2.0%. Compensation of employees rose by 0.9%, while the net operating surplus of corporations advanced by 9.5%.
  • Economic production, measured on an industry basis, advanced 1.3%. Output increased in both the goods-producing industries (+1.7%) and the service sector (+1.2%).
  • Real GDP growth in Ontario outpaced all G7
    countries in the first quarter of 2017.

Expenditure Details

Ontario’s Real GDP Boosted by Investment and Consumer Spending

Ontario’s real GDP advanced 1.0% in the first quarter of 2017, with solid growth in business investment and consumer spending. Net trade moderated the overall increase.

Ontario’s household consumption spending increased 1.0%, matching the previous quarter gain. Consumer spending on durables and semi-durables both rose by 2.3%, led by furniture and appliances, motor vehicle and parts and clothing and footwear. Spending on non-durables (+0.7%) and services (+0.6%) also increased.

Business investment (+5.5%) rebounded in the first quarter, after declining in the previous two quarters. Residential construction investment increased by a strong 7.9%, reflecting strong growth in resale activity, renovation and new construction. Business investment in machinery and equipment (+5.5%), non-residential structures (+0.9%) and intellectual property products (+1.0%) also advanced. Government spending increased by 0.2%, following a 0.8% rise in the fourth quarter.

Exports edged down 0.1% in the first quarter, following a 1.0% decline in the fourth quarter. International exports were unchanged, while interprovincial exports edged down 0.2%. Imports rebounded in the quarter, increasing 3.0%, following two consecutive quarters of decline.

Businesses accumulated $5.0 billion of inventories, after drawing down $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter.

Final domestic demand, which excludes trade and inventories, advanced by 1.5% in the first quarter.

Income Details

Nominal GDP Continues to Rise

GDP in current dollars advanced 2.0% in the first quarter of 2017, following a 1.1% increase in the fourth quarter of 2016.

Compensation of employees, which includes both wages and salaries, and supplementary labour income, increased 0.9%, after a 1.6% gain in the fourth quarter. Net mixed income, which is comprised of farm, non-farm and rental income, rose 1.5%, following a 0.8% increase in the fourth quarter.

Business sector profits, measured by the net operating surplus of corporations, advanced 9.5%, after a 2.1% gain in the fourth quarter.

Household disposable income increased 0.5%, after rising 1.7% in the previous quarter.

Household disposable income advanced at a slower pace than consumption expenditure. As a result, the household savings rate declined 0.7 percentage points to 2.8%.

Price Details

Economy-Wide Prices Advance

Economy-wide prices, as measured by the implicit price index for GDP, rose 1.1% in the first quarter, after increasing 0.6% in the fourth quarter.

Prices for household expenditures advanced 0.3%, following a 0.7% gain in the fourth quarter. Prices for motor vehicles, gasoline, natural gas and medicine increased, while prices for furniture, clothing, food and electricity decreased in the quarter.

Business investment prices rose 1.7%, with a strong gain in residential construction (+3.8%), which offset declines in machinery and equipment (-1.1%) and non-residential construction (-0.2%) prices.

In the trade sector, prices were higher for exports (+0.2%), but lower for imports (-0.7%). During this period the Canadian dollar appreciated by 0.8% against the U.S. dollar.

Industry Details

Goods and Service Industries Contribute to Growth

Based on production by industry, Ontario real GDP expanded 1.3% in the first quarter, following a gain of 0.3% in the previous quarter. Both the goods (+1.7%) and service (+1.2%) industries contributed to first quarter growth.

All service-producing industries increased output, with the largest contribution from wholesale trade (+4.0%). Retail trade (+1.7%), finance and insurance (+1.4%) and transportation and warehousing (+1.4%) also posted notable gains.

Growth in the goods-producing sector was primarily led by construction (+3.3%) and manufacturing (+2.0%), but was partially offset by lower output in the primary (-1.9%) and utilities (-2.6%) industries.

Construction sector output advanced 3.3%. Residential construction output increased 7.4%, supported by growth in new and renovation construction. Non-residential building and engineering rose by 0.3%.

Manufacturing production increased 2.0% in the first quarter, driven by primary and fabricated metal (+5.7%), machinery (+4.8%) and food, beverage and tobacco (+4.8%). Transportation equipment output (+2.6%) also increased in the quarter, with the auto industry expanding 3.7%.

Jurisdictional Comparisons

Ontario Real GDP Growth Outpaces All G7 Countries

In the first quarter, Ontario’s real GDP (+1.0%) grew faster than Canada, the United States and all of the other G7 countries.

Across the G7 countries, average real GDP growth increased 0.4%, down slightly from a 0.5% rise in the fourth quarter of 2016. Canadian real GDP advanced 0.9%, after rising 0.7% in the preceding quarter, led by household consumption (+1.1%) and business investment (+2.9%). Quebec’s real GDP rose 1.1% in the first quarter, following a 0.8% gain. Household spending (+0.9%) and business investment (+1.9%) also led Quebec’s growth in the quarter.

In the U.S., real GDP advanced 0.4% in the first quarter, following a 0.5% gain in the fourth quarter. Business investment (+2.6%) and exports (+1.7%) were the main contributors to real GDP growth in the first quarter. Personal consumption expenditure rose 0.3%, after a 0.9% gain in the previous quarter. Government spending declined 0.2%, following no growth in the fourth quarter.

Germany posted a 0.6% gain in real GDP, accelerating from a 0.4% rise in the previous quarter. Real GDP in Italy advanced 0.4%, slightly stronger than the 0.3% increase in the previous quarter. First quarter growth was unchanged in both France (+0.5%) and Japan (+0.3%), while growth moderated in the United Kingdom (+0.2% from +0.7%).

Employment

Steady Growth in Ontario’s Labour Market Continues

Ontario’s employment advanced by 3,700 in the second quarter of 2017, following a gain of 36,400 in the first quarter.

Ontario’s unemployment rate was 6.4% in June 2017, below the national average for the 27th consecutive month.

As of June 2017, employment was 6.5% (+430,700 jobs) above the pre-recession peak and 11.0% (+703,200 jobs) above the recessionary low.

Since the recessionary low, the majority of jobs created were full-time positions (+661,800), while part-time employment (+41,300) also increased. Most of these net new jobs were in the private sector (+518,900) and in industries paying above–average wages (+550,900).

Trade

Manufacturing, Retail and Wholesale Trade Continue to Rise

Manufacturing sales advanced 1.4% over the first four months of 2017 compared to the same period a year ago, led by petroleum and coal, food and primary metal products manufacturing. Lower vehicle and parts sales moderated the gain.

Retail sales advanced 6.0% and wholesale trade by 8.1% on a year-to-date basis to April. Gains were relatively widespread within both wholesale and retail trade, including solid gains in motor vehicle and parts.

Ontario’s international merchandise exports declined 0.5% in the first five months of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016. Exports to Ontario’s top export market, the United States declined (-1.4%), while exports to the United Kingdom (+14.7%) and China (+31.8%) rose.

Housing

Ontario’s Housing Market

Housing market activity in Ontario has been supported by demographic trends, employment gains, higher incomes and low mortgage rates.

Sales of existing homes were 4.8% higher in the first five months of 2017, compared to the same period in 2016. Most regions of Ontario posted year-to-date gains, with the exception of the Greater Toronto Area where sales moderated by 1.0%.

Ontario average home resale prices have eased. After two consecutive monthly declines, the average home resale price was $564,000 in May, down from over $640,000 in March and up from $518,000 a year ago.

Housing starts advanced 6.3% in the first five months of 2017 with sharp gains very early in the year. Both single-detached and multiple-family starts increased on a year-to-date basis.

Global Economic Developments

Strengthening Momentum, Improved Outlook

Following a moderate slowing in 2016, global economic growth is expected to improve in 2017 due to solid performance across advanced economies and an expected rebound in many emerging markets. Robust growth in the euro zone at the end of 2016 has carried into 2017 with many economic indicators pointing to solid growth going into the second quarter. In emerging markets, there are signs that commodity-exporting economies are experiencing improving conditions. Chinese real GDP continues to grow at an annualized pace of around 6.5%, in line with their government’s expectations.

U.S. real GDP growth slowed in the first quarter, rising 0.4%, easing from 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016. Residential investment rose 3.1% and non-residential business investment advanced 2.5% in the U.S. due to a boost from the oil and gas sector. Net trade also contributed positively to GDP growth. Slow household spending and declining inventories moderated growth. Economic indicators point to stronger growth in the second quarter.

U.S. payroll employment continued to advance in June, increasing by 222,000. The unemployment rate was 4.4%, up from 4.3% in May, the lowest rate in 16 years. Hourly wage growth eased to 2.5% in June (year-over-year) from a recent high of 2.8% last February.

Global Financial Conditions Strong

Global interest rates have gradually eased since the recent peak in mid-March, with the yield on 10-year U.S. treasuries declining from over 2.6% to around 2.1% at the end of June. Diminished expectations for fiscal stimulus and easing CPI inflation have contributed to the decline. Canadian interest rates have followed their U.S. counterparts lower, declining from 1.9% in mid-March to 1.5% in late June. On June 14, the Federal Reserve hiked its target rate 25 basis points to between 1-1.25%, citing the tight U.S. labour market as the main factor behind the decision. This marked the fourth rate increase since the tightening cycle began in 2015. Falling 10-year yields and interest rate hikes have contributed to a narrowing of short and long-term interest rate spreads in the U.S.

After declining between mid-April and mid-May, the Canadian dollar has since risen against the U.S. dollar to above 75 cents U.S. late in June, boosted by improving economic momentum in Canada and firming expectations for a Bank of Canada rate hike. The improvement in the Canadian dollar occurred during a period of weakening oil prices. Since early March, oil prices have eased from over $53 U.S. per barrel to around $44 U.S. per barrel at the end of June due in part to renewed activity in the U.S. energy sector and diminished expectations for OPEC production restraint.

Renewed weakness in energy markets has also contributed to continued divergence in the performance of U.S. and Canadian equity markets. Between the end of March and end of June, the S&P 500 rose over 3% while the TSX Composite declined by 1.5%.

In Focus

A Closer Look at Interprovincial Migration

Interprovincial migration refers to the migratory exchanges between Ontario and the rest of Canada. In any given year, between 50,000 and 100,000 Ontario residents move to another province or territory, while the number of people that move to Ontario from the rest of Canada also fluctuates in that range.

Net interprovincial migration–the difference between the number of people moving in and out–has not been a significant contributor to Ontario’s population growth in the past, with a net annual gain averaging only 800 people during the last 40 years. However, a large net gain or loss through interprovincial migration can have a substantial impact on Ontario’s population growth rate in a specific year.

In Ontario, net interprovincial migration is affected by relative economic performance, with consecutive years of net gains in periods when Ontario’s labour market over-performs the rest of the country.

Between 2003 and 2015, Ontario experienced 13 years of net interprovincial migration losses to the rest of Canada totaling 140,000 people. During that period, Ontario saw large net losses to Alberta (-134,000), and to a lesser extent British Columbia (-50,000), while perennial gains from Quebec (+58,000) continued.

Over the last two years, net losses turned to net gains as the labour market in oil-producing provinces deteriorated. In 2016, Ontario saw a net gain of 20,000 people from interprovincial migration.

Over the 12-month period to March 31, 2017, more than half of net interprovincial migration gains were with Quebec (+11,000). In that time frame, 27% of people leaving Ontario for the rest of Canada went to Alberta, 26% to British Columbia, and 18% to Quebec. Among people coming to Ontario during the same period, 26% came from Quebec, 25% from Alberta, and 17% from British Columbia.

Appendix

Structure of the Ontario Economy

How GDP is Measured

The Ontario Economic Accounts provide measurements of GDP using three different methodologies: by expenditure, income and industry.

The GDP by expenditure approach defines GDP as the aggregate of all expenditures on final consumption, gross capital formation and net trade by consumers, governments and businesses that occur within Ontario’s economy over a given time period. This measurement of GDP can also be defined as the sum of consumer spending, gross investment, government spending and net trade.

The GDP by income approach equates GDP to the total income earned through contributions to production within Ontario’s economy by labour and capital over a given time period. That is, GDP is the sum of all wages and salaries paid to employees, the gross operating surplus of businesses, gross mixed income and indirect taxes less subsidies.

The GDP by industry approach measures GDP by calculating the total output of the goods and services producing industries within Ontario’s economy and subtracting the cost of intermediate inputs used in final production. This approach can also be referred to as the value-added approach as it quantifies the additional value generated by industries through the production of final products within the economy.

For a full list of definitions used in the Ontario Economic Accounts, please see Statistics Canada’s System of Macroeconomic Accounts Glossary at http://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/nea/gloss/gloss_a.

List of Data Tables

Income and Expenditure Data

Quarterly Data, 2014:1–2017:1

Table 1: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Income-Based)
Table 2: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure-Based)
Table 3: Ontario Gross Domestic Product at Chained 2007 Prices
Table 4: Sources and Disposition of Ontario Household Income
Table 5: Ontario Trade
Table 6: Ontario Trade (Chained 2007 Prices)
Table 7: Ontario Deflators

Annual Data, 2013-2016

Table 8: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Income-Based)
Table 9: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure-Based)
Table 10: Ontario Gross Domestic Product at Chained 2007 Prices
Table 11: Sources and Disposition of Ontario Household Income
Table 12: Ontario Trade
Table 13: Ontario Trade (Chained 2007 Prices)
Table 14: Ontario Deflators

Ontario Production by Industry at 2007 Prices

Table 15: Quarterly Data, 2014:1-2017:1
Table 16: Annual Data, 2013-2016

Historical tables, both annual and quarterly available from 1981.
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Graphic Descriptions

Highlights: Ontario GDP, First Quarter 2017

The chart indicates the change in real and nominal GDP in the first quarter of 2017. Real GDP rose 1.0%, while nominal GDP increased 2.0% in the quarter.

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Expenditure Details: Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly real GDP growth in per cent from the first quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2017. Ontario has experienced real GDP growth over the entire period. Real GDP rose 1.0% in the first quarter of 2017, following a 0.5% increase in the fourth quarter of 2016. The third quarter of 2014 recorded the strongest gain at 1.1%.

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Expenditure Details: Real GDP Change by Expenditure Component

The horizontal bar chart depicts the per cent change in Ontario’s real GDP and its components for the first quarter of 2017. Real GDP rose 1.0% in the quarter, with increases in business investment (+5.5%), household consumption (+1.0%) and government spending (+0.2%). Exports declined 0.1% and imports rose 3.0%.

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Expenditure Details: Real Export and Import Growth

The bar chart shows the quarterly per cent change in real exports and imports from the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2017. Exports edged down 0.1% in the first quarter of 2017, while imports increased 3.0%.

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Income Details: Nominal GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly nominal GDP growth in per cent from the first quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2017. Ontario has experienced nominal GDP growth over the entire period. Nominal GDP rose 2.0% in the first quarter of 2017, following a 1.1% increase in the fourth quarter of 2016. The third quarter of 2014 recorded the strongest gain at 2.0%.

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Income Details: Nominal GDP Change by Income Component

The horizontal bar chart depicts the per cent change in nominal GDP and its components for the first quarter of 2017. Nominal GDP rose 2.0%, with increases in net operating surplus (+9.5%), net mixed income (+1.5%), indirect taxes less subsidies (+1.1%) and compensation of employees (+0.9%).

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Income Details: Compensation of Employees Growth

The bar chart shows Ontario’s quarterly growth of employee compensation in per cent from the first quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2017. Compensation of employees rose 0.9% in the first quarter of 2017, following a 1.6% increase in the fourth quarter of 2016. The first quarter of 2015 recorded the strongest gain of 1.7%.

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Price Details: Economy-Wide Price Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly growth of economy-wide prices in per cent from the first quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2017. Ontario posted a 1.1% increase in economy-wide prices in the first quarter of 2017, following a 0.6% rise in the previous quarter. Since the first quarter of 2014, the strongest growth in prices was recorded in the first quarter of 2014 (+1.3%), while the only decline was posted in the fourth quarter of 2014 (-0.3%).

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Price Details: Price Change by Expenditure Component

The horizontal bar chart shows the per cent change in prices by expenditure component for the first quarter of 2017. The overall GDP deflator rose 1.1%. Prices increased for business investment (+1.7%), government (+0.5%), household consumption (+0.3%) and exports (+0.2%). Prices were lower for imports (-0.7%) in the quarter.

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Price Details: Export and Import Price Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly growth of export and import prices in per cent from the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2017. In the first quarter of 2017, prices were higher for exports (+0.2%), but lower for imports (-0.7%). Since 2015, both export and import prices have declined in only three quarters.

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Industry Details: Real GDP Growth by Industry

The bar chart depicts Ontario’s quarterly growth of real GDP by industry in per cent from the first quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2017. Ontario real GDP advanced 1.3% in the first quarter of 2017, following a 0.3% gain in the fourth quarter of 2016. Over the entire period, real GDP by industry has grown consistently, with the strongest gain of 1.3% recorded in the first quarter of 2017.

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Industry Details: Real GDP Change by Industry

The horizontal bar chart illustrates the per cent change in real GDP by industry category for the first quarter of 2017. The output of all industries grew 1.3% in the quarter, with output rising 1.2% in the service industries and 1.7% in goods-producing industries. The change in output of each industry is as follows: wholesale and retail trade (+3.0%), manufacturing (+2.0%), construction (+3.3%), finance and insurance (+1.4%), other services (+1.2%), real estate, rental and leasing (+0.9%), health, education and public administration (+0.6%), professional and administrative services (+0.3%), primary industries (-1.9%) and utilities (-2.6%).

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Industry Details: Real GDP Change by Manufacturing Industry

The horizontal bar chart shows the per cent change in real GDP by manufacturing industry for the first quarter of 2017. In total, output by manufacturing industries increased 2.0% in the quarter. The change in output of each manufacturing industry is as follows: primary and fabricated metal (+5.7%), machinery (+4.8%), food, beverage and tobacco (+4.8%), transportation equipment (+2.6%), wood and furniture (+1.3%), paper and printing (+0.8%), electrical and electronic (-0.6%), plastic and rubber (-0.6%), textile, clothing and leather (-1.8%), chemical and petroleum (-2.7%) and other manufacturing (-3.1%).

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Jurisdictional Comparisons: Real GDP Growth, G7 and Ontario

The bar chart shows the quarterly per cent change in real GDP for all G7 countries and Ontario for the first quarter of 2017. The change in real GDP for each jurisdiction is as follows: United Kingdom (+0.2%), Japan (+0.3%), United States (+0.4%), Italy (+0.4%), France (+0.5%), Germany (+0.6%), Canada (+0.9%) and Ontario (+1.0%).

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Jurisdictional Comparisons: Canadian Real GDP Growth

The bar chart shows Canada’s quarterly real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2017. Canadian GDP rose 0.9% in the first quarter of 2017, following a 0.7% increase in the fourth quarter of 2016. Over the entire period, the strongest gain of 1.0% was posted in the second quarter of 2014 and the third quarter of 2016.

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Jurisdictional Comparisons: U.S. Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates U.S. quarterly real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2017. U.S. real GDP rose 0.4% in the first quarter of 2017, following a 0.5% gain posted in the fourth quarter of 2016. Over the entire period, U.S. real GDP has grown consistently, with the exception of a 0.3% decline in the first quarter of 2014. The third quarter of 2014 recorded the strongest gain of 1.2%.

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Employment: Ontario’s Labour Force

The chart indicates the change in Ontario’s employment in the second quarter of 2017 and unemployment rate in June 2017. Ontario’s employment rose by 3,700 net new jobs in the second quarter, while the unemployment rate was 6.4% in June 2017.

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Employment: Ontario’s Labour Market Strengthening

The combination line and area chart show Ontario’s unemployment rate (line chart) and employment (area chart) from January 2008 to June 2017. Ontario’s unemployment rate has trended downwards since the recession, reaching 6.4% in June 2017. Employment in Ontario has risen steadily since the recession, reaching over 7 million workers in June 2017, putting it well over the pre-recession level of roughly 6.6 million.

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Employment: Employment Gains Concentrated in Full-Time, Private Sector, Above Average Wage Jobs

The bar chart shows different characteristics of Ontario employment gains since June 2009. Total employment increased by 703,000 since June 2009, with full-time employment up by 662,000, while part-time employment rose by 41,000. Private-sector employment increased by 519,000, while public-sector employment rose by 86,000 and self-employment was up by 99,000. Employment in above-average wage industries rose by 551,000 compared to a 152,000 employment increase in below-average wage industries.

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Trade: Manufacturing Sales

The line chart shows Ontario’s manufacturing sales in billions of dollars from January 2014 to April 2017. Ontario’s manufacturing sales have trended upwards since January 2014, with most of the growth occurring at the end of 2015. Following the strong start to 2016, manufacturing sales declined before resuming an upward trend throughout the rest of the year. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s manufacturing sales rose 1.4% over the first four months of 2017, compared to the same period in 2016.

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Trade: Retail Sales

The line chart shows Ontario’s retail sales in billions of dollars from January 2014 to April 2017. Ontario’s retail sales have steadily trended upwards since January 2014. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s retail sales advanced 6.0% over the first four months of 2017, compared to the same period in 2016.

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Trade: Wholesale Trade

The line chart shows Ontario’s wholesale trade in billions of dollars from January 2014 to April 2017. Ontario’s wholesale trade has steadily trended upwards since January 2014. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s wholesale trade rose 8.1% over the first four months of 2017, compared to the same period in 2016.

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Housing: Home Resales

The line chart shows Ontario’s home resales in units from January 2014 to May 2017. Ontario’s home resales grew from about 15,000 in January 2014 to over 22,000 in March 2017. Home resales have since declined, to about 18,000 in May 2017. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s home resales rose 4.8% over the first five months of 2017, compared to the same period in 2016.

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Housing: Home Resale Prices

The line chart shows Ontario’s average home resale prices in dollars from January 2014 to May 2017. Ontario’s home resale price increased from $421,000 in January 2014 to a peak of $642,000 in March 2017. Average resales prices declined to $564,000 in May 2017. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s home resale prices rose 21.4% over the first five months of 2017, compared to the same period one year ago.

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Housing: Housing Starts

The line chart shows Ontario’s housing starts in thousands of units (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) from January 2014 to May 2017. Ontario’s housing starts reached a peak of over 100,000 units in January 2017 and a low of roughly 42,000 in March 2014. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s housing starts rose 6.3% over the first five months of 2017, compared to the same period one year ago.

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Global Economic Developments: Real GDP Growth

The bar chart shows the annual per cent change in real GDP for the world, Euro zone, United Kingdom, United States and Canada for 2016 and a forecast for 2017. The world economy grew by an average of 2.5% in 2016 and is expected to advance 2.9% in 2017. Canada’s real GDP increased 1.5% in 2016 and is forecast to grow 2.5% in 2017. For the Euro zone, real GDP increased 1.7% in 2016 and is forecast to grow 1.8% in 2017. The United Kingdom real GDP increased 1.8% in 2016 and is forecast to grow 1.6% in 2017. The United States real GDP increased 1.6% in 2016 and is forecast to grow 2.2% in 2017.

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Global Economic Developments: U.S. Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates U.S. quarterly real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2017. U.S. real GDP rose 0.4% in the first quarter of 2017, following a 0.5% gain posted in the fourth quarter of 2016. Over the entire period, U.S. real GDP has grown consistently, with the exception of a 0.3% decline in the first quarter of 2014. The third quarter of 2014 recorded the strongest gain of 1.2%.

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Global Economic Developments: U.S. Labour Market

This bar and line chart shows the U.S. unemployment rate (line chart) and employment (bar chart) from January 2015 to June 2017. Over this period, the unemployment rate has trended downwards while employment has continued to rise.

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Global Economic Developments: Government Bond Yields

The line chart shows the daily rate of 10-year government bonds from the U.S., Ontario, Canada, the U.K. and Germany from January 2015 to June 2017. All bond yields have gradually eased since the recent peak in mid-March. Generally, government bond yields have been the highest in the United States, followed by Ontario, Canada, the U.K. and Germany.

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Global Economic Developments: Oil Prices and the Canadian Dollar

The line chart shows the daily oil prices ($US per barrel) and Canadian dollar (cents U.S.) between January 2015 and June 2017. After declining between mid-April and mid-May, the Canadian dollar has risen against the U.S. dollar to above 75 cents U.S. late in June. Oil prices have eased from over $53 U.S. per barrel in early March to around $44 U.S. barrel at the end of June.

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Global Economic Developments: Stock Indexes

The line chart shows the daily value of the S&P 500 and TSX stock indexes from January 2015 to June 2017. Both indexes represented in the chart follow a similar trend, declining to their lowest values at the beginning 2016. Since then, equity markets have trended upwards.

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In Focus: Net Interprovincial Migration to Ontario, 1977-2016

This bar chart shows the historical net interprovincial migration to Ontario from 1977 to 2016. In 2016, net interprovincial migration to Ontario was about 20,000. Positive net interprovincial migration occurred over most of the 1980s and from 1997 to 2002. Net interprovincial migration was generally negative during the late 1970s, from 1990 to 1996 and from 2003 to 2015.

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In Focus: Ontario's Net Interprovincial Migration with Selected Regions of Canada, 1986-2017

The line chart illustrates Ontario’s net interprovincial migration with selected regions of Canada from 1986 to 2017. Over this period, net interprovincial migration was generally positive from Quebec and negative for British Columbia and Alberta. Net migration from Atlantic Canada and the grouping of Manitoba, Saskatchewan and the Territories was generally small.  

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In Focus: Interprovincial Migration Flows to and from Ontario, April 1, 2016 to March 31, 2017

Province /Territory Coming to Ontario from: Leaving Ontario to: Net
Newfoundland and Labrador 2,830 1,805 1,025
Prince Edward Island 1,700 1,142 558
Nova Scotia 6,386 5,292 1,094
New Brunswick 4,114 3,123 991
Quebec 22,948 11,955 10,993
Manitoba 5,862 3,519 2,343
Saskatchewan 4,942 2,834 2,108
Alberta 22,215 17,751 4,464
British Columbia 15,241 17,273 -2,032
Yukon 346 351 -5
Northwest Territories 415 414 1
Nunavut 564 516 48
Total 87,563 65,975 21,588

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Appendix: Per Cent Share of Nominal GDP, 2016

The pie chart illustrates Ontario’s shares of nominal GDP by industry in 2016. The good-producing industries accounted for 22.5% of nominal GDP, including manufacturing (11.9%), construction (6.7%), utilities (2.1%) and primary (1.8%). The service producing industries accounted for 77.5% of nominal GDP, including other services (15.2%), real estate and rental and leasing (13.3%), health and education (12.5%), wholesale and retail trade (11.9%), finance and insurance (9.8%), public administration (7.1%), transportation and warehousing (3.9%) and information and culture (3.8%).

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Appendix: GDP measurement methods

  • Expenditure Approach
    • Sum of expenditures of all sectors of the economy
    • Consumer Spending + Investment + Government Spending + Exports – Imports
  • Income Approach
    • Sum of all incomes
    • Wage and Salaries + Profits + Mixed Incomes
  • Production Approach (GDP by Industry)
    • Sum of value added in all industry sectors
    • Output of Goods Producing Industries + Output of Services Producing Industries – Intermediate Inputs

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