Ontario Economic Update

As of June 24, 2016

Economy
  Monthly:
2016 Feb
Monthly:
2016 Mar
Monthly:
2016 Apr
Monthly:
2016 May
Quarterly:
2015 Q3
Quarterly:
2015 Q4
Quarterly:
2016 Q1
Year
to Date*
Annual:
2014
Annual:
2015
Real Gross Domestic Product ($2007 millions)       -       -       -      - 667,516  672,562      NA  665,030 648,352  665,030
Per cent change   -   -   -   -     0.9      0.8      NA      2.6     2.7      2.6
Current Dollar Gross Domestic Product ($ millions)        -       -       -      - 753,117  759,851      NA  747,790 721,970  747,790
Per cent change   -   -   -   -     1.5      0.9      NA      3.6     4.1      3.6
Employment
  Monthly:
2016 Feb
Monthly:
2016 Mar
Monthly:
2016
Apr
Monthly:
2016 May
Quarterly:
2015 Q3
Quarterly:
2015 Q4
Quarterly:
2016 Q1
Year
to Date*
Annual:
2014
Annual:
2015
Employment (000's) 6,975 6,989 6,985 7,007   6,931    6,947   6,983 6,926   6,878    6,923
Net New Jobs (000's)  -11.2 13.9 -3.3 21.6    12.0     15.7    36.1 89.6    54.5     45.3
Per cent change -0.2 0.2 0 0.3     0.2      0.2     0.5 1.3     0.8      0.7
Unemployment Rate (per cent)  6.8 6.8 7 6.6     6.7      6.8     6.8 6.9     7.3      6.8
Average Weekly Wage Rate ($), nsa  959.79 964.46 963.41 952.58  949.13   949.82  959.29 958.77  907.17   938.09
Per cent change 4.3 4.2 3.8 2.4     4.4      3.8     4.3 3.8     1.3      3.4
Employment Insurance Beneficiaries (regular) 144,590 141,010 137,600 NA 151,380  145,397 143,027  174,938 150,810  148,038
Per cent change 0.8 -2.5 -2.4 NA 2.4 -4.0 -1.6  -3.3 -5.4 -1.8
Consumers
  Monthly:
2016 Feb
Monthly:
2016 Mar
Monthly:
2016 Apr
Monthly:
2016 May
Quarterly:
2015 Q3
Quarterly:
2015 Q4
Quarterly:
2016 Q1
Year
to Date*
Annual:
2014
Annual:
2015
Retail Sales ($ millions) 16,036 15,920 15,978 NA  46,701   47,198  47,912 57,067 176,719  184,143
Per cent change 0.5 -0.7 0.4 NA     1.8      1.1 1.5      7.8     5.0      4.2
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units), nsa 48,706 72,361 84,741 NA 212,967  184,206 165,653  250,394 732,718  778,364
Per cent change 13 11.8 8.7 NA     6.6      8.0    13.8   12    11.6      6.2
Consumer Price Index (CPI), nsa 128.2 129 129.6 130.1   128.1    127.8   128.3 128.9   125.9    127.4
Per cent change 1.6 1.5 2.1 1.9     1.2      1.3     1.7      1.8     2.4      1.2
Housing
  Monthly:
2016 Feb
Monthly:
2016 Mar
Monthly:
2016 Apr
Monthly:
2016 May
Quarterly:
2015 Q3
Quarterly:
2015 Q4
Quarterly:
2016 Q1
Year
to Date*
Annual:
2014
Annual:
2015
Housing Starts (000's)  79.8 88.8 64.4 67.5    78.9     73.0    78.6 25.6    59.1     70.2
Per cent change 26.5 11.3 -27.4 4.7    16.8     -7.4     7.6 7    -3.2     18.6
MLS Home Resales (units)  19,455 19,847 20,407 19,921  56,782   57,286  58,581  100,785 204,246 223,8237
Per cent change 0.9 2 2.8 -2.4    -1.4      0.9     2.3     10.3     3.9      9.6
Business
  Monthly:
2016 Feb
Monthly:
2016 Mar
Monthly:
2016 Apr
Monthly:
2016 May
Quarterly:
2015 Q3
Quarterly:
2015 Q4
Quarterly:
2016 Q1
Year
to Date*
Annual:
2014
Annual:
2015
Manufacturing Sales ($ millions)  25,348 24,792 24,898 NA  74,171   74,728 76,444 99,114 284,644  289,664
Per cent change -3.6 -2.2 0.4 NA     4.7      0.8  2.3     8.3     6.2      1.8
International Merchandise Exports ($ millions), nsa  17,378 18,014 16,730 NA  50,101   53,041 53,033  69,763 177,284  196,983
Per cent change 24.3 5.8 8.7 NA    12.1     12.8 15.6 13.8     8.0     11.1
International Merchandise Imports ($ millions), nsa 27,311 28,875 28,139 NA  82,406   83,332 81,875  11,0014 295,589  325,066
Per cent change 13 -0.1 4 NA    11.2      7.0     6.5 5.9     9.6     10.0
Wholesale Trade ($ millions)  28,536 28,196 28,068 NA  82,633   84,036 85,579  108,248 306,756  326,783
Per cent change -1,1 -1.2 -0.5 NA     1.1      1.7     1.8 7.4     6.8      6.5
Non-residential Building Permits ($ millions)  1,065 979 873 NA   2,874    2,813 3,100  3,380  11,736   11,950
Per cent change 0.8 -8 -10.9 NA   -18.6     -2.1    10.2     -7.7     0.6      1.8
Private and Public Investment ($ millions)       -       -       -      -       -        -       -        -  63,517   69,611
Per cent change       -       -       -      -       -        -       -        -    11.5      9.6

* Notes: All data are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise specified with "nsa".
Per cent change for seasonally unadjusted (nsa) data is calculated on a year-to-year basis.
Year-to-date averages are generally calculated using unadjusted monthly data. Year-to-date per cent change is calculated on a year-to-year basis.
International merchandise trade is reported on a customs basis.
GDP levels are expressed at annual rates. Monthly and quarterly housing starts are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
Year-to-date housing starts are based on actual unadjusted urban-area data.
Sources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Canadian Real Estate Association.

For further information, please contact us at:
Ministry of Finance
Economic and Revenue Forecasting and Analysis Branch
Current Analysis Unit
6th Floor, Frost Building North
95 Grosvenor Street
Toronto ON M7A 1Z1
416 325-0755
Send us your questions or comments.

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