Ontario Economic Update

As of May 27, 2016

Economy
  Monthly:
2016 Jan
Monthly:
2016 Feb
Monthly:
2016 Mar
Monthly:
2016 Apr
Quarterly:
2015 Q3
Quarterly:
2015 Q4
Quarterly:
2016 Q1
Year
to Date*
Annual:
2014
Annual:
2015
Real Gross Domestic Product ($2007 millions)       -       -       -      - 667,516  672,562      NA  665,030 648,352  665,030
Per cent change   -   -   -   -     0.9      0.8      NA      2.6     2.7      2.6
Current Dollar Gross Domestic Product ($ millions)        -       -       -      - 753,117  759,851      NA  747,790 721,970  747,790
Per cent change   -   -   -   -     1.5      0.9      NA      3.6     4.1      3.6
Employment
  Monthly:
2016 Jan
Monthly:
2016 Feb
Monthly:
2016 Mar
Monthly:
2016 Apr
Quarterly:
2015 Q3
Quarterly:
2015 Q4
Quarterly:
2016 Q1
Year
to Date*
Annual:
2014
Annual:
2015
Employment (000's)   6,986   6,975   6,989  6,985   6,931    6,947   6,983    6,885   6,878    6,923
Net New Jobs (000's)     19.8   -11.2    13.9   -3.3    12.0     15.7    36.1     88.6    54.5     45.3
Per cent change     0.3    -0.2     0.2   -0.0     0.2      0.2     0.5      1.3     0.8      0.7
Unemployment Rate (per cent)      6.7     6.8     6.8    7.0     6.7      6.8     6.8      7.0     7.3      6.8
Average Weekly Wage Rate ($), nsa   953.63  959.79  964.46 963.41  949.13   949.82  959.29   960.32  907.17   938.09
Per cent change     4.3     4.3     4.2    3.8     4.4      3.8     4.3      4.1     1.3      3.4
Employment Insurance Beneficiaries (regular) 143,480 143,860 141,700     NA 151,380  145,397 143,013  182,837 150,810  148,038
Per cent change    -0.8     0.3    -1.5     NA     2.4     -4.0    -1.6     -2.7    -5.4     -1.8
Consumers
  Monthly:
2016 Jan
Monthly:
2016 Feb
Monthly:
2016 Mar
Monthly:
2016 Apr
Quarterly:
2015 Q3
Quarterly:
2015 Q4
Quarterly:
2016 Q1
Year
to Date*
Annual:
2014
Annual:
2015
Retail Sales ($ millions)  15,958  16,050  15,924     NA  46,701   47,198  47,932   40,926 176,719  184,143
Per cent change     2.2     0.6    -0.8     NA     1.8      1.1     1.6      7.8     5.0      4.2
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units), nsa  44,586  48,706  72,361     NA 212,967  184,206 165,653  165,653 732,718  778,364
Per cent change    18.1    13.0    11.8     NA     6.6      8.0    13.8     13.8    11.6      6.2
Consumer Price Index (CPI), nsa   127.8   128.2   129.0  129.6   128.1    127.8   128.3    128.7   125.9    127.4
Per cent change     2.0     1.6     1.5    2.1     1.2      1.3     1.7      1.8     2.4      1.2
Housing
  Monthly:
2016 Jan
Monthly:
2016 Feb
Monthly:
2016 Mar
Monthly:
2016 Apr
Quarterly:
2015 Q3
Quarterly:
2015 Q4
Quarterly:
2016 Q1
Year
to Date*
Annual:
2014
Annual:
2015
Housing Starts (000's)     63.0    80.0    89.3   64.7    78.9     73.0    78.6     19.3    59.1     70.2
Per cent change    16.4    27.0    11.6  -27.5    16.8     -7.4     7.6     19.2    -3.2     18.6
MLS Home Resales (units)   19,279  19,455  19,847 20,494  56,782   57,286  58,581   72,850 204,249  223,827
Per cent change     1.2     0.9     2.0    3.3    -1.4      0.9     2.3     10.6     3.9      9.6
Business
  Monthly:
2016 Jan
Monthly:
2016 Feb
Monthly:
2016 Mar
Monthly:
2016 Apr
Quarterly:
2015 Q3
Quarterly:
2015 Q4
Quarterly:
2016 Q1
Year
to Date*
Annual:
2014
Annual:
2015
Manufacturing Sales ($ millions)   26,332  25,338  24,845     NA  74,171   74,728  76,515   74,256 284,644  289,664
Per cent change     4.2    -3.8    -1.9     NA     4.7      0.8     2.4      9.4     6.2      1.8
International Merchandise Exports ($ millions), nsa   17,637  17,282  18,034     NA  50,101   53,041  52,953   52,953 177,284  196,983
Per cent change    18.5    23.6     5.9     NA    12.1     12.8    15.4     15.4     8.0     11.1
International Merchandise Imports ($ millions), nsa  25,690  27,297  28,851     NA  82,406   83,332  81,838   81,838 295,589  325,066
Per cent change     8.1    12.9    -0.2     NA    11.2      7.0     6.5      6.5     9.6     10.0
Wholesale Trade ($ millions)   28,834  28,557  28,145     NA  82,633   84,036  85,536   79,452 306,756  326,783
Per cent change     1.2    -1.0    -1.4     NA     1.1      1.7     1.8      9.1     6.8      6.5
Non-residential Building Permits ($ millions)    1,056   1,065     980     NA   2,874    2,813   3,101    2,374  11,736   11,950
Per cent change     3.0     0.8    -7.9     NA   -18.6     -2.1    10.2     19.9     0.6      1.8
Private and Public Investment ($ millions)       -       -       -      -       -        -       -        -  63,517   69,611
Per cent change       -       -       -      -       -        -       -        -    11.5      9.6

* Notes: All data are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise specified with "nsa".
Per cent change for seasonally unadjusted (nsa) data is calculated on a year-to-year basis.
Year-to-date averages are generally calculated using unadjusted monthly data. Year-to-date per cent change is calculated on a year-to-year basis.
International merchandise trade is reported on a customs basis.
GDP levels are expressed at annual rates. Monthly and quarterly housing starts are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
Year-to-date housing starts are based on actual unadjusted urban-area data.
Sources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Canadian Real Estate Association.

For further information, please contact us at:
Ministry of Finance
Economic and Revenue Forecasting and Analysis Branch
Current Analysis Unit
6th Floor, Frost Building North
95 Grosvenor Street
Toronto ON M7A 1Z1
416 325-0755
Send us your questions or comments.

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