Ontario Economic Update

As of July 29, 2016

Economy
  Monthly:
2016 Mar
Monthly:
2016
Apr
Monthly:
2016 May
Monthly:
2016
Jun
Quarterly:
2015 Q4
Quarterly:
2016 Q1
Quarterly:
2016 Q2
Year
to Date*
Annual:
2014
Annual:
2015
Real Gross Domestic Product ($2007 millions)       -       -       -      - 672,655 677,702      NA  677,702 648,352  664,965
Per cent change   -   -   -   - 0.8 0.8      NA      2.9     2.7      2.6
Current Dollar Gross Domestic Product ($ millions)        -       -       -      - 758,148 763,443      NA  763,443 721,970  747,101
Per cent change   -   -   -   - 0.9 0.7      NA      3.6     4.1      3.5
Employment
  Monthly:
2016 Mar
Monthly:
2016 Apr
Monthly:
2016
May
Monthly:
2016 Jun
Quarterly:
2015 Q4
Quarterly:
2016 Q1
Quarterly:
2016 Q2
Year
to Date*
Annual:
2014
Annual:
2015
Employment (000's) 6,989 6,985 7,007 7,003 6,947 6,983 6,998 6,960   6,878    6,923
Net New Jobs (000's)  13.9 -3.3 21.6 -4.2 15.7 36.1 15.2 85.1    54.5     45.3
Per cent change 0.2 0 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 1.2     0.8      0.7
Unemployment Rate (per cent)  6.8 7 6.6 6.4 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.8     7.3      6.8
Average Weekly Wage Rate ($), nsa  964.46 963.41 952.58 959.17 949.82 959.29 958.39 958.84  907.17   938.09
Per cent change 4.2 3.8 2.4 2 3.8 4.3 2.7 3.5     1.3      3.4
Employment Insurance Beneficiaries (regular) 141,650 138,080 137,010 NA 145,397 143,240 NA 163,334 150,810  148,038
Per cent change -2 -2.5 -0.8 NA -4 -1.5 NA -3.8 -5.4 -1.8
Consumers
  Monthly:
2016 Mar
Monthly:
2016 Apr
Monthly:
2016 May
Monthly:
2016 Jun
Quarterly:
2015 Q4
Quarterly:
2016 Q1
Quarterly:
2016 Q2
Year
to Date*
Annual:
2014
Annual:
2015
Retail Sales ($ millions) 15,908 15,962 15,964 NA 47,198 47,890 NA 74,063 176,719  184,143
Per cent change -0.7 0.3 0 NA 1.1 1.5 NA 6.3     5.0      4.2
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units), nsa 72,361 84,780 83,432 NA 184,206 165,653 NA 333,865 732,718  778,364
Per cent change 11.8 8.7 0.6 NA 8 13.8 NA 8.9    11.6      6.2
Consumer Price Index (CPI), nsa 129 129.6 130.1 130.4 127.8 128.3 130 129.2   125.9    127.4
Per cent change 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.9      1.8     2.4      1.2
Housing
  Monthly:
2016 Mar
Monthly:
2016 Apr
Monthly:
2016 May
Monthly:
2016 Jun
Quarterly:
2015 Q4
Quarterly:
2016 Q1
Quarterly:
2016 Q2
Year
to Date*
Annual:
2014
Annual:
2015
Housing Starts (000's)  89.3 66.2 69.9 87.9 73 77.8 74.1 33.8    59.1     70.2
Per cent change 11.4 -25.9 5.6 25.8 -7.4 6.5 -4.7 15.4    -3.2     18.6
MLS Home Resales (units)  19,847 20,407 20,385 20,418 57,286 58,581 61,210 128,824 204,246 223,823
Per cent change 2 2.8 -0.1 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.5 9.4     3.9      9.6
Business
  Monthly:
2016 Mar
Monthly:
2016 Apr
Monthly:
2016 May
Monthly:
2016 Jun
Quarterly:
2015 Q4
Quarterly:
2016 Q1
Quarterly:
2016 Q2
Year
to Date*
Annual:
2014
Annual:
2015
Manufacturing Sales ($ millions)  24,728 24,788 24,453 NA 74,728 76,304 NA 124,098 284,644  289,664
Per cent change -2.2 0.2 -1.4 NA 0.8 2.1 NA 7.6     6.2      1.8
International Merchandise Exports ($ millions), nsa  18,098 16,642 16,368 NA 53,041 53,120 NA 86,130 177,284  196,983
Per cent change 6.3 8.1 7.8 NA 12.8 15.8 NA 12.6     8.0     11.1
International Merchandise Imports ($ millions), nsa 28,878 27,972 27,586 NA 83,332 81,879 NA 137,437 295,589  325,066
Per cent change -0.1 3.3 2 NA 7 6.5 NA 5     9.6     10.0
Wholesale Trade ($ millions)  28,182 28,124 28,555 NA 84,036 85,567 NA 138,691 306,756  326,783
Per cent change -1.3 -0.2 1.5 NA 1.7 1.8 NA 7.6     6.8      6.5
Non-residential Building Permits ($ millions)  979 846 888 NA 2,813 3,100 NA 4,329  11,736   11,950
Per cent change -8 -13.6 4.9 NA -2.1 10.2 NA -10.4     0.6      1.8
Private and Public Investment ($ millions)       -       -       -      -       -        -       -        -  63,517   69,611
Per cent change       -       -       -      -       -        -       -        -    11.5      9.6

* Notes: All data are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise specified with "nsa".
Per cent change for seasonally unadjusted (nsa) data is calculated on a year-to-year basis.
Year-to-date averages are generally calculated using unadjusted monthly data. Year-to-date per cent change is calculated on a year-to-year basis.
International merchandise trade is reported on a customs basis.
GDP levels are expressed at annual rates. Monthly and quarterly housing starts are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
Year-to-date housing starts are based on actual unadjusted urban-area data.
Sources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Canadian Real Estate Association.

For further information, please contact us at:
Ministry of Finance
Economic and Revenue Forecasting and Analysis Branch
Current Analysis Unit
6th Floor, Frost Building North
95 Grosvenor Street
Toronto ON M7A 1Z1
416 325-0755
Send us your questions or comments.

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