Ontario Population Projections Update 2007 – 2031

Ontario Population Projections Update
2007 – 2031

Ontario and Its 49 Census Divisions

Spring 2008
Ontario Ministry of Finance

General inquiries regarding the Ontario Population Projections Update, 2007–2031
should be directed to:
Ministry of Finance Information Centre
Toll-free English and French inquiries: 1-800-337-7222
Teletypewriter (TTY): 1-800-263-7776

For electronic copies of this document, visit our website at
www.fin.gov.on.ca/english/economy/demographics/projections
www.fin.gov.on.ca/english/economy/demographics/projections/demog08.pdf

Ce rapport est disponible en français sous le titre:
Mise à jour des projections démographiques pour l’Ontario, 2007–2031
sur notre site Web, aux adresses suivantes :

www.fin.gov.on.ca/french/economy/demographics/projections/
www.fin.gov.on.ca/french/economy/demographics/projections/demog08.pdf

I. Introduction to the Update, 2007-2031

II. Highlights

III. Projections Update Results

Reference, Low- and High-Growth Scenarios
The Components of Population Change
Age Structure
Regional Population Growth
Regional Age Structure

IV. Methodology and Assumptions

Projections Methodology
Base Population
Fertility
Mortality
International Migration
Interprovincial Migration
Intraprovincial Migration

Appendix of Statistical Tables

List of Statistical Tables
Map of Ontario Census Divisions
Tables

I. Introduction to the Update, 2007-2031

Why Projections Are Updated

This report presents population projections for Ontario and each of its 49 census divisions from the base year of 2007 to 2031. These population projections were prepared as an update to the 2006–2031 Ontario Ministry of Finance population projections released in spring 2007.

Since the 2006-based population projections were published by the Ministry of Finance in Spring 2007, previously released Statistics Canada population estimates have been revised and additional data have been made available. Taking account of these changes in an update ensures that the projections remain as relevant as possible to users and track the most recent trends in components of population growth.

The updated population projections use as their base population the preliminary July 1, 2007 postcensal population estimates released by Statistics Canada in September 2007 for Ontario and in January 2008 for census divisions. For Ontario, this base is 12.8 million. These updated projections are not based on the 2006 Census counts because the counts are not yet adjusted for net undercoverage by Statistics Canada. Population estimates adjusted for net undercoverage are scheduled to be released in fall 2008.

In addition, the update includes minor changes to assumptions to keep short-term levels and rates in the components of population growth in line with recent trends. The end point of the projections remains July 1, 2031.

Long-term assumptions and methodology underlying the updated population projections remain largely unchanged from those used for recent projections. This means that the long-term trends and implications of the demographic outlook remain the same.

These projections do not represent Ontario government policy targets or desired population outcomes, nor do they incorporate explicit economic assumptions. The projections are developed using a standard demographic methodology. The ministry’s assumptions for population growth reflect past trends in all streams of migration and the continuing evolution of long-term fertility and mortality patterns in each census division.

The updated projections include three scenarios for Ontario. The medium or reference scenario is considered “most likely” to occur. The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a reasonable forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth. At the census division level, an updated medium-growth scenario is provided. Population is projected for each of the 49 census divisions and summed to an Ontario total, which corresponds to the updated medium-growth scenario for the province.

Outline of the Report

Section II provides the highlights of updated projection results, 2007–2031, at the Ontario and regional levels. Section III presents a discussion of projection results, including: Ontario population under reference, low- and high-growth scenarios; a discussion of the components of Ontario’s population growth; Ontario age structure; and regional population growth and age structure. Section IV provides a description of the methodology and assumptions underlying each scenario of the update.

The report contains a statistical appendix of the most commonly used tables. This provides users with up-to-date, detailed projections data.

II. Highlights

Here are highlights of the updated projections, 2007-2031, for the reference scenario:

Ontario’s population is projected to experience fairly robust growth over the projection period, 2007–2031. The population is projected to grow by 27.8 per cent, or 3.56 million, over the next 24 years, from an estimated 12.8 million on July 1, 2007, to 16.37 million on July 1, 2031.
Over the projection period, the annual rate of population growth declines, from 1.1 per cent on average over the first five years to 0.8 per cent in the final year of the projections.
Over the first decade, when the number of births and deaths increases at about the same pace, natural increase (births minus deaths) remains fairly constant at about 43,500 annually. Over the rest of the projection period, as baby boomers age and the number of deaths rises faster than births, natural increase will slow rapidly, dropping to nearly 18,000 by 2030–31.
Over the projection period, net migration will account for 74 per cent of total population growth. The share of annual population growth accounted for by net migration will rise gradually over the projection period, from 61 per cent in 2007–08 to 86 per cent by 2030–31. Immigration is by far the largest component of net migration.
The median age of Ontario’s population is projected to rise to 43 years in 2031 from 39 years in 2007. The median age for women climbs from 39 to 44 years, and the median age for men increases from 38 to 42 years.
The population aged 65 and over is projected to more than double from 1.7 million, or 13.2 per cent of the population, in 2007 to 3.6 million, or 21.9 per cent, in 2031. The population aged 75 and over more than doubles as well, increasing from 802,000, or 6.3 per cent of the population, in 2007 to 1.6 million, or 10 per cent, in 2031. The growth in seniors’ share of the population will accelerate after 2011 as baby boomers begin to turn age 65.
The number of children under age 15 rises by only 288,000, or 12.9 per cent, over the projection period, from 2.24 million to 2.53 million, while their share of the population falls from 17.5 per cent in 2007 to 15.5 per cent in 2031.
The working-age population, ages 15–64, is projected to increase by 15.5 per cent, from 8.9 million in 2007 to 10.3 million by 2031. Within this age group, the most rapid increase is among those over age 45. The working-age population’s share of Ontario’s population will rise gradually from 69.3 per cent in 2007 to peak at 69.6 per cent in 2011, after which it will fall slowly to 62.7 per cent by 2031.
Regions of Ontario are projected to experience varying rates of population growth. The Greater Toronto Area (GTA), comprised of the City of Toronto and the regional municipalities of Durham, Halton, Peel and York, will be by far the fastest-growing region. It is projected to grow from six million in 2007 to more than 8.3 million in 2031. The GTA’s share of Ontario population is projected to rise from 46.8 per cent in 2007 to 50.8 per cent in 2031, or over one-half of the province’s population. The GTA’s share of Ontario population growth to 2031 is projected to be 65.5 per cent. International migration is a very significant factor in the projected increase in the GTA’s population and share.
Within the GTA, Toronto’s population is projected to increase from 2.65 million in 2007 to 3.05 million in 2031. Growth in the other regions of the GTA (Durham, Halton, Peel and York) will add nearly two million people to the GTA. Within the GTA, only Toronto is projected to grow at a slower pace than Ontario as a whole, at 15 per cent and 27.8 per cent respectively over the period. In Durham, Halton, Peel and York, growth ranging from 44 to 63 per cent is projected over the next 24 years.
The population of Central Ontario is projected to grow from 2.77 million in 2007 to 3.46 million in 2031. Four census divisions surrounding the GTA, namely Simcoe, Dufferin, Wellington and Waterloo, are projected to continue to experience above-average population growth.
The population of Eastern Ontario is projected to grow from 1.67 million to 2 million in 2031. Ottawa is projected to grow fastest, from 846,000 in 2007 to 1.06 million in 2031, or by 24.9 per cent over the projection period. Every census division in Eastern Ontario is projected to experience growth below the provincial average of 27.8 per cent.
The population of Southwestern Ontario is projected to grow from 1.58 million in 2007 to 1.8 million in 2031. Growth rates within Southwestern Ontario will vary, with Elgin growing fastest at 22.2 per cent and Chatham-Kent showing a small decline.
The population of Northern Ontario is projected to decline by 2.9 per cent over the period, from 801,000 in 2007 to 778,000 in 2031. This projected decline reflects Northern Ontario’s migration trends and age structure. Seven of 11 census divisions in the North are projected to decline, with Cochrane, Rainy River and Timiskaming projected to experience the fastest rate of population decline. The northern census divisions that are projected to experience population growth are all located in the Northeast.

III. Projections Update Results

Reference, Low- and High-Growth Scenarios

The projections provide a range of plausible growth scenarios for the population of Ontario. The medium-growth orreference scenario is considered most likely to occur. It combines slightly increasing fertility to 2011, a moderate decline in mortality and a slowly declining net migration level. Graphics in this report are for the reference scenario, unless otherwise stated.

The low-growth scenario is based on a declining fertility rate and, compared to the reference scenario, a slower decline in mortality and a lower net migration level.

The high-growth scenario combines an increasing fertility assumption and, compared to the reference scenario, a faster decline in mortality and a higher net migration level.

Under all three scenarios, Ontario’s population is projected to experience fairly robust growth over the projection period, 2007-2031. The population in the reference scenario is projected to grow 27.8 per cent, or 3.56 million, from an estimated 12.8 million in July 2007, to 16.37 million by July 2031. The population reaches 14.7 million under the low-growth scenario by 2031 and almost 18 million under the high-growth scenario.

The increase in population over the projection period is 3.6 million in the reference scenario, 1.9 million in the low-growth scenario and 5.2 million in the high-growth scenario.

Line graph: Population Projections, Ontario

During the first five years of the projection period, the annual rate of growth in the reference scenario averages 1.1 per cent, the same rate of growth observed during the past five-year period. The annual rate of growth is projected to slow gradually to 0.8 per cent by the last year of the projection period. In the low-growth scenario, the annual rate of growth averages 0.7 per cent in the first five years and 0.3 per cent by 2030-31. Similarly, annual rates of growth under the high-growth scenario assumptions are 1.5 per cent and 1.2 per cent respectively in the same periods.

The Components of Population Change

Diminishing natural increase is the main factor contributing to a slowing rate of population growth over the projection period. This is the consequence of low fertility and the arrival of large cohorts of baby boomers at older ages (more deaths).

The number of births, projected to be 134,000 in the first year of the projections, increases gradually to reach 157,000 in 2024-25. The increase in births is because of more women of child-bearing age and the slightly increasing fertility rates assumed in the reference scenario. The annual number of births then starts to decline slowly in 2025-26 to reach 155,000 at the end of the projection period. Under the declining fertility assumption (low-growth scenario), births decrease to 119,000 annually at the end of the projection period while births increase to 194,000 annually under the high fertility assumption.

The annual number of deaths will continue to increase as baby boomers age. From 90,000 in the first year of the projections, the number of deaths reaches 137,000 annually by the end of the projection period in the reference scenario and 145,000 and 128,000 in the low- and high-growth scenarios, respectively.

Over the first half of the projection period, when the number of births and deaths increases at about the same pace, natural increase remains roughly constant at about 43,500 annually. Over the rest of the projection period, natural increase declines rapidly, as deaths rise faster than births, dropping to just over 18,000 by 2030-31. In the low-growth scenario, a pattern of natural decrease (more deaths than births) occurs starting in the year 2024-25. In the high-growth scenario, natural increase rises rapidly to reach 74,000 in 2022-23 and declines slowly thereafter to 66,000 by 2030-31.

Migration is a very significant contributor to the population growth of Ontario. Over the projection period, in the reference scenario, net migration will account for 74 per cent of population growth and add about 2.6 million people to Ontario’s population. Over this same period, Ontario gains 3.6 million people in the high-growth scenario and less than 1.7 million people in the low-growth scenario as a result of net migration. Immigration is by far the largest component of net migration.

Line graph: Components of Population Growth, Ontario

Age Structure

Over the projection period, the age structure of Ontario’s population will shift to more seniors.

Line graphs: Age Pyramid of Population, Ontario 2007 and 2031

The population aged 65 and over will rise significantly, from 1.7 million or 13.2 per cent of the population in 2007 to 3.6 million or 21.9 per cent in 2031. In the low-growth scenario, this age group will rise to 3.4 million or 23.2 per cent of the population in 2031, and in the high-growth scenario, to 3.8 million or 21.2 per cent.

The population aged 75 and over will more than double, increasing from 802,000 or 6.3 per cent of population in 2007 to 1.6 million or 10 per cent in 2031. In the low-growth scenario, this age group will rise to 1.5 million or 10.5 per cent of the population in 2031, and in the high-growth scenario, to 1.8 million or 9.9 per cent. The growth in seniors’ share of the population will accelerate after 2011 as baby boomers begin to turn age 65.

By contrast, the number of children under age 15 will rise by only 288,000 in the reference scenario, from 2.24 million in 2007 to 2.53 million in 2031, while their share of the population will fall from 17.5 to 15.5 per cent. In the low-growth scenario, the number of children under age 15 falls to 2 million by 2031, reflecting the declining fertility rate, and their share falls to 13.8 per cent by 2031. With an increasing fertility assumption in the high-growth scenario, the number of children increases to three million and their share declines to 16.9 per cent by 2031.

The working-age population, ages 15-64, increases by 15.5 per cent in the reference scenario, from 8.9 million in 2007 to 10.3 million by 2031. Within this group, the most rapid increase is for the age group 45-64. The share of the population that is of working age will fall slowly from 69.3 per cent in 2007 to 62.7 per cent by 2031. In the low- and high-growth scenarios, the working-age population will rise to 9.3 million and 11.1 million respectively by 2031 and will comprise about 63 per cent and 62 per cent of the population, similar to the reference scenario.

Line graph: Annual Growth by Age Group, Ontario

In the reference scenario, the median age of Ontario’s population is projected to rise to 43 years in 2031, from 39 years in 2007. The median age for women will climb from 39 to 44 years. The median age for men will increase from 38 to 42 years. Under the low- and high-growth scenarios, the median age of Ontario’s population will rise to 44 and 42 years respectively by 2031.

At older ages, the number of women will continue to exceed the number of men because of the higher life expectancy of women. Currently, there are 67 males per 100 females among those aged 75 and over. By 2031, the projections show there will be 79 males per 100 females. The ratio will increase because of the assumption of a narrowing gap between male and female life expectancies underlying these projections.

Regional Population Growth

Within Ontario, the main demographic determinants of regional population growth are the current age structure of the population, natural increase, and the migratory movements in and out of each region.

The current regional age structure has a direct impact on projected births and deaths – natural increase. A region with a higher share of its current population in older age groups will likely experience more deaths in the future than a region of comparable size with a younger population. Similarly, a region with a large share of young adults in its population is expected to see more births proportionately than a region of comparable size with an older age structure. Also, since migration rates vary not only by region and census division but also by age, the age structure of a region or census division will have an impact on the migration of its population.

Natural increase is projected to contribute positively to population growth over the projection period in all regions except Northern Ontario where natural increase is already negative and is projected to decline further. However, the general aging of Ontario’s population means that natural increase will moderate over the period in all regions and, except in the GTA, will turn negative in the last few years of the projections. This declining or negative trend in natural increase means that many census divisions in Ontario, where natural increase used to be the main or even sole contributor to population growth, have already started to see their population growth slow, a trend that is projected to continue as the population ages further.

Migration is the most important determinant of population growth for Ontario as a whole and for most regions. Net migration gains, whether from international sources, other parts of Canada or other regions of Ontario, are projected to continue to be the major source of population growth for almost all regions. Large urban areas such as the GTA which receive most of the international migration to Ontario are projected to grow strongly. For other regions such as Central Ontario, the continuation of migration gains from other parts of the province will be a key source of growth. Some census divisions of Northern Ontario receive only a small share of international migration and have been experiencing net youth out-migration which reduces both current and future population growth.

The GTA, comprised of the City of Toronto and the regional municipalities of Durham, Halton, Peel and York, is projected to be by far the fastest-growing region, at 39 per cent over the period compared to 18 per cent for the rest of Ontario. The GTA’s population is projected to increase from 6.0 million in 2007 to 8.3 million in 2031. The GTA’s share of total Ontario population is projected to rise from 46.8 per cent in 2007 to 50.8 per cent, or over one-half of Ontario’s population in 2031. The GTA’s share of Ontario’s net growth to 2031 is projected to be 65.5 per cent.

Bar graph: Projected Population, Ontario Regions 2007, 2016 and 2031

Within the GTA, Toronto’s population is projected to increase from 2.65 million in 2007 to 3.05 million in 2031, a rise of 15 per cent. Growth in the other regions of the GTA (Durham, Halton, Peel and York) will add about two million people to the GTA. Within the GTA, only Toronto is projected to grow at a slower pace than Ontario as a whole (27.8 per cent over the period). In Durham, Halton, Peel and York, growth ranging from 44 to 63 per cent, well over the provincial average, is projected over the next 24 years.

The population of Central Ontario is projected to grow from 2.77 million in 2007 to 3.46 million in 2031 or by 25.2 per cent. The region’s share of Ontario’s population will fall slightly, remaining just above 21 per cent. Four census divisions surrounding the GTA will continue to experience above-average population growth, ranging from 28.4 per cent in Waterloo, 28.1 per cent in Wellington, 39.8 per cent in Dufferin to 45.7 per cent in Simcoe.

The population of Eastern Ontario is projected to grow from 1.67 million to 2 million or by 20.1 per cent over the projection period. Ottawa is projected to grow fastest (24.9 per cent) from 846,000 in 2007 to 1.06 million in 2031. The rest of Eastern Ontario will also experience growth, but below the provincial average, with Frontenac and Prescott & Russell growing fastest at 20.9 and 19.9 per cent respectively.

The population of Southwestern Ontario is projected to grow from 1.58 million in 2007 to 1.8 million in 2031 or by 14 per cent. Growth rates within Southwestern Ontario will vary, with Elgin growing fastest (22.2 per cent) and Chatham-Kent seeing population decline (-2.5 per cent).

The population of Northern Ontario is projected to decline from 801,000 in 2007 to 778,000 by 2031, a decline of 2.9 per cent. In the past, Northern Ontario’s positive natural increase offset part of the losses it experienced through net migration. However, in this demographic projection, natural increase in the North is projected to be negative due to population aging. Seven of 11 census divisions in the North are projected to decline, with Cochrane, Rainy River and Timiskaming projected to experience the fastest rate of population decline. The northern census divisions that are projected to experience population growth are all located in the Northeast.

Regional Age Structure

All regions will see a shift to an older age structure. Regions where natural increase and net migration are projected to become or remain negative will see the largest shifts.

The GTA is expected to remain the region with the youngest age structure as a result of strong international migration and positive natural increase. Median age in the GTA will increase from 37.1 years in 2007 to 41.0 years in 2031. The Northeast will remain the region with the oldest age structure, with median age rising from 42.6 years in 2007 to 48.7 years in 2031. In the other regions, median age is projected to reach about 45 years by 2031.

Bar graph: Median Age, Ontario Regions 2007 and 2031

In 2007, the share of seniors (aged 65+) in the population of each region ranged from 11.5 per cent in the GTA to 16.2 per cent in the Northeast. By 2031, seniors will account for 18.7 per cent of the population in the GTA and 29.2 per cent in the Northeast. Similarly, seniors’ share of the population will increase from 14.7 to 24.9 per cent in Central Ontario, from 14.1 to 24.7 per cent in the East, from 14.6 to 24.9 per cent in the Southwest, and from 13.7 to 26.3 per cent in the Northwest.

The share of population of working age (15-64), which ranged from 68 per cent in Southwestern Ontario to 70.4 per cent in the GTA in 2007, is projected to decline over the projection period in every region. This age group is projected to account for 65.2 per cent of population in the GTA and 60 per cent in the Southwest by 2031.

The Northeast will see the largest decline in the share of its population aged 15-64, from 68.3 in 2007 to 57.8 per cent by 2031. The share of this age group will also fall over the period from 68.1 to 60.3 per cent in Central Ontario, from 69.3 to 60.6 per cent in the East, and from 68.1 to 58.3 per cent in the Northwest.

Similarly, the share of children under age 15 in the population of every region is projected to decline over the projection period, especially in the first decade. In 2007, the Northwest, with its relatively higher fertility rate, was the region with the highest share of children aged 0-14, at 18.2 per cent. The Northeast was the region with the lowest share of children, at 15.6 per cent. By 2031, children aged 0-14 are projected to account for 13.0 per cent of the population of the Northeast and 15.3 per cent of the population of the Northwest. For other regions, shares of children aged 0-14 are projected to decline between 2007 and 2031 from 18.1 to 16.1 per cent in the GTA, from 17.2 to 14.8 per cent in Central Ontario, from 16.6 to 14.7 per cent in the East, and from 17.4 to 15.1 per cent in the Southwest.

The share of youth aged 18-24 is also projected to decline in all regions over the projection period. In 2007, all regions had fairly similar shares of youth in their population. The Southwest had the highest share at 9.9 per cent while the GTA had the lowest at 9.4 per cent. By 2031, the youth group is projected to fall to 7.6 per cent of population in the Southwest and 8.2 per cent in the GTA. The share of youth is also projected to decline from 9.6 per cent in 2007 to 7.4 per cent by 2031 in Central Ontario, from 9.4 to 7.3 per cent in the East, from 9.7 to 6.8 per cent in the Northeast, and from 9.8 to 7.3 per cent in the Northwest.

IV. Methodology and Assumptions

Projections Methodology

The methodology used in Ministry of Finance long-term population projections is the cohort-component method. The methodology is a demographic accounting system. The calculation starts with the base-year population (2007) distributed by age and sex.

A separate analysis and projection of each component of population growth is made each year, starting with births. Then, projections of deaths and the five migration components (immigration, net emigration, net change in non-permanent residents, interprovincial in- and out-migration, and intraprovincial in- and out-migration) are also generated and added to the population cohorts to obtain the population of the subsequent year, by age and sex.

This methodology is followed for each of the 49 census divisions. The Ontario-level population is obtained by summing the projected census division populations (reference scenario only).

It should be noted that the population projections are demographic, based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration over the projection period. Assumptions are based on the analysis of the past trends of these components and expectations of future direction. For Ontario, the degree of uncertainty inherent in projections is represented by the range between the low- and high-growth scenarios, with the reference scenario representing the most likely outcome.

Base Population

The updated population projections presented in this report use as a base population the preliminary July 1, 2007 postcensal population estimates released by Statistics Canada in September 2007 for Ontario and in January 2008 for census divisions. For Ontario, this base population is 12.8 million. The updated projections are not based on the 2006 Census counts because the counts have yet to be adjusted for net undercoverage by Statistics Canada. Population estimates adjusted for net undercoverage are scheduled to be released in fall 2008.

As well as providing a new starting point, updating the projections to a new base year slightly alters the projected age structure and population growth in each census division. It also has an impact on many components of population growth that are projected by using age-specific rates, such as births, deaths and several of the migration streams.

Fertility

The projected number of births for any given year is obtained by applying age-specific fertility rates to cohorts of women in the reproductive age group, ages 15 to 49. The projection model relies on a four-parameter Pearsonian curve to generate the annual number of births. The first of these parameters, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), reflects the level of fertility while the other three parameters (the mean age at fertility, the skewness and the variance of the distribution) reflect the timing, or age, at which women have their babies. All parameters used are calibrated to generate age-specific fertility rates that closely follow recent trends.

Assumptions are based on a careful analysis of past age-specific fertility trends in Ontario and a review of fertility trends elsewhere in Canada and in other countries. The generally observed trend over the past 30 years is that women are having fewer children and postponing births to later in life.

The decline in the fertility rate among young women is accompanied by a rise in fertility rates among older women. Recently, teenage girls and women in their early 20s have experienced the sharpest declines in fertility rates. Women in their late 20s and early 30s have had declining fertility rates over the late 1990s and early 2000s but recent data point toward a stabilization. Fertility rates of women in their mid-30s and older are rising.

Following about half a century of almost continuous decline, the TFR in Ontario reached its lowest level ever recorded in 2002, at 1.48 children per woman. More recently, annual TFR values have hovered around 1.50. This is less than half the level at the 1960 peak of the Baby Boom when Ontario’s total fertility rate reached 3.8 children per woman with a record 159,000 births registered that year. By 1972, fertility fell below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.

Most researchers agree that fertility levels in the future are unlikely to return to the high levels observed in the fifties and early sixties. Rather, it is believed that fluctuations of small amplitude around values below the replacement level and within a fairly narrow range are more likely.

Line graph: Total Fertility Rate, Ontario

In the reference scenario, the TFR is assumed to increase slightly from 1.51 to 1.53 children per woman by 2011, as younger women’s fertility rates stabilize and those of older women steadily increase. After 2011, the TFR is projected to remain constant to the end of the projection period.

In the low-growth scenario, fertility is assumed to decline gradually until the TFR reaches 1.3 children per woman at the end of the period. In the high-growth scenario, the TFR increases gradually to 1.75 children per woman by the end of the projection period.

Fertility Assumptions at the Census Division Level

The most recent data (2005) shows that TFRs by census division range from a high of 2.06 in Manitoulin to a low of 1.19 in Haliburton. A study of the evolution of the TFR in each census division over the past ten years shows no convergence of TFRs by census division. For this reason, the projected Pearsonian curve parameters for fertility at the census division level are modelled to maintain the regional differences in women’s fertility behaviour. The census division-to-province ratio for mean age at fertility in the most recent period is assumed to remain constant. The variance and skewness of fertility distributions at the census division level evolve over the projection period following the same absolute changes as these parameters at the Ontario level.

Mortality

The projected number of deaths each year is obtained by applying age-specific mortality rates to population cohorts in corresponding ages. A method of mortality projection proposed by Lee and Carter (see Ronald D. Lee and Lawrence R. Carter, 1992)¹ was used to generate the annual age-sex specific mortality rates for each year of the projections.

The Lee-Carter model starts with the decomposition of a matrix of age-specific death rates from the 1971-72 to 2005-06 period into: (1) the trend in mortality change over time; and (2) age patterns in mortality. Parameters obtained from estimating the model are then combined with the assumed life expectancy to derive age-specific mortality for future years.

For low-and high-growth scenarios, assumptions of life expectancy at birth at the end of the projection period are first developed. The assumptions for intervening years are set by linear interpolation. The derived set of assumptions for the three scenarios for Ontario all reflect a continuation of the improvement (gains) recorded in the average duration of life.

The province of Ontario has one of the highest levels of life expectancy in both Canada and among the countries of the developed world. A newborn female in Ontario can expect to live 82.7 years and a newborn male, 78.5 years (2005 data). Over the last decade, average gains in life expectancy have been in the order of 0.16 year per annum for females and 0.29 year for males.

However, gains in life expectancy have been getting somewhat smaller and it is expected that future improvements will continue at this slowing pace. Gains in life expectancy will be concentrated at older ages and are expected to be smaller for infants.

In the reference scenario, life expectancy in Ontario increases gradually from its recent levels to reach 82.6 years for males and 85 years for females by 2031. This means total gains of 4.1 years for males and 2.3 years for females between 2005 and 2031.

In the low-growth scenario, life expectancy increases at a slower pace, to 80.9 and 83.6 years for males and females respectively. In the high-growth scenario, life expectancy reaches 84.5 and 86.3 years for males and females respectively.

Line graph: Life Expectancy at Birth, Ontario

Under each of the three mortality assumptions, male life expectancy is expected to progress at a faster pace than female life expectancy. This is in line with recent trends where males have recorded slightly larger gains than females. Thus, the overall gap between males and females has decreased, and is projected to continue to do so.

Mortality Assumptions at the Census Division Level

At the census division level, the mortality assumptions were developed using a ratio methodology. The Ontario-level mortality structure was applied to each census division’s age structure over the most recent three years of comparable data and the expected number of deaths was computed. This was then compared to the annual number of deaths for each census division over this period to create ratios of actual to expected number of deaths. These ratios were then multiplied by provincial death rates to create death rates for each census division. These were then applied to the corresponding census division population to derive the number of deaths for each census division.

An analysis of the ratio of actual to expected deaths for each census division did not reveal a consistent pattern or movement toward a convergence or divergence among regions over time. For this reason, the recent three-year average ratio for each census division was held constant over the projection period.

International Migration

Immigration

Immigration levels in Canada are determined by federal government policy. Each year, the federal Minister of Citizenship and Immigration announces the target range for the level of immigration to be achieved in the coming year. Over the past few years, the target range has increased significantly. For calendar year 2008, the national target range is 240,000 to 265,000 immigrants.

Over the past 30 years, an average of 52 per cent of immigrants to Canada chose to settle in Ontario. This share has been fairly stable over the long-term, subject to cyclical variations. In 2007, Ontario’s share was lower than average at 47 per cent.

The projected number of immigrants coming to Ontario each year is obtained by assuming that: federal immigration targets remain unchanged; annual immigration levels reach the mid-range of the target each year; and Ontario’s historical share of immigrants to Canada remains constant in the long term.

In the reference scenario, immigration to Ontario is set at 110,000 in the first year, to reflect the lower levels of immigrants observed recently. This level increases gradually to 131,000 by 2010-11, which is equivalent to 52 per cent of the mid-point of the current federal target range for Canada. The level remains constant for the rest of the projection period.

The immigration level is set at 79,000 in the first year in the low-growth scenario, rising to 100,000 by 2010-11 and remaining constant thereafter. In the high-growth scenario, immigration is set at 139,000 in the first year, increasing gradually to 160,000.

The range between the upper bound of 160,000 immigrants per year in the high-growth scenario and the lower bound of 100,000 per year in the low-growth scenario reflects the large fluctuations in immigration observed in the past.

Immigration Assumptions at the Census Division Level

Projected immigration shares for each census division are based on the distribution of immigrants by census division over the past five years. These shares remain constant throughout the projection period. The recent age-sex distribution pattern for immigrants also is assumed to remain constant.

Emigration

Total emigration is a measure of net emigration, that is, gross international emigration flow minus returning emigrants, plus the net variation in the number of Ontarians temporarily abroad. The level of total emigration from Ontario was about 20,500 over the past three years.

The number of emigrants is difficult to assess with a high degree of accuracy because Canada does not have a complete border registration system. Statistics Canada publishes annual estimates of these flows based on a variety of indirect sources, such as administrative data files and postcensal surveys.

All three scenarios set emigration at 21,000 in 2007-08. Projected population growth over time will generate a larger pool of potential emigrants and for this reason, all three scenarios assume a linearly increasing level of emigration, reaching 30,000 by 2030-31.

Emigration Assumptions at the Census Division Level

The projected shares of emigration for each census division and the age-sex distribution of emigrants are based on the average of the past five years.

Non-Permanent Residents

Statistics Canada estimates that there were about 189,000 non-permanent residents (NPRs) living in Ontario in 2007 (e.g., foreign students, temporary workers, refugee claimants). These foreign residents are included in the base population as they are counted in the Census. The year-to-year change in their total number must be accounted for as a component of population growth. Determining assumptions for this component is a complex task because of the significant year-to-year fluctuations and the transient nature of this group.

Over the past 30 years, Ontario has gained on average 4,600 non-permanent Residents annually. However, the net change in the number of NPRs has been negative over the past three years. For this reason, in the reference scenario, the change in the stock of NPRs is set at zero in the first year. Starting in 2008-09, the change in the stock of NPRs is held constant at 4,000 annually.

Line graph: Non-Permanent Residents, Ontario

In the low- and high-growth scenarios, the change in the stock of NPRs is set at -4,000 and 4,000 respectively for 2007-08. Starting in 2008-09 and for the rest of the projection period, the change in NPRs is set at 0 in the low-growth scenario and at 8,000 in the high-growth scenario.

Non-Permanent Resident Assumptions at the Census Division Level

Projected shares of non-permanent residents for each census division are based on the share held by each census division in the 2001 Census. The age-sex distribution of non-permanent residents is based on the latest revised estimates. The distribution pattern is assumed to remain constant over the projection period.

Interprovincial Migration

Interprovincial migration is a component affected by wide year-to-year fluctuations. Although Ontario remains a major province of attraction for migrants from other provinces, trend analysis of the last three decades reveals a mixed pattern of several years of gains followed by several years of losses. This pattern usually follows economic cycles.

Historically, net interprovincial migration has contributed positively to Ontario’s population growth with a net gain of 102,000 migrants over the past 30 years, averaging 3,400 per year. Over the late 1990s, Ontario experienced a period of large gains in net interprovincial migration, with an annual peak of 22,400 in 1999-2000. Since then, annual net gains have gradually decreased and the balance has turned negative, largely due to net losses with Alberta.

In the reference scenario, annual net interprovincial migration for Ontario reflects recent trends in the short term. It is set at -18,000 for 2007-08, gradually returning to positive values by 2011-12 at 5,000 and then remaining at that level for the rest of the projection period.

Line graph: Net Interprovincial Migration, Ontario

Net interprovincial migration for Ontario is set at -33,000 for 2007-08 in the low-growth scenario and -3,000 in the high-growth scenario. In both scenarios, net interprovincial migration improves gradually to reach 0 and 10,000 by 2011-12 respectively, remaining constant thereafter.

The in-flows corresponding to the long-term net migration levels in the low-growth, reference and high-growth scenarios are 65,000, 67,500 and 70,000 respectively. The corresponding out-flows are 65,000, 62,500 and 60,000.

Interprovincial Migration at the Census Division Level

Interprovincial out-migration at the census division level is modelled using the age-sex-specific rates observed over the past five years. This means that the level of out-migration from each census division is affected over time by its age structure.

The level of interprovincial in-migration to each census division is held constant throughout the projection period. Interprovincial in-migration to Ontario for each year of the projection period is distributed among census divisions based on the average of each census division’s share of Ontario’s total interprovincial in-migration over the past five years.

Intraprovincial Migration

At the census division level, intraprovincial migration, or the movement of population within the province, is a significant component of population growth. This component affects population growth only at the census division level. At the Ontario level, intraprovincial movements net out to zero.

The annual number of intraprovincial migrants in Ontario has fluctuated within the 350,000 to 450,000 range over the past 20 years. Over the projection period, the annual number of intraprovincial migrants increases gradually from 423,000 in 2007-08 to 474,000 in 2030-31. Since the Ontario total is not projected (rather, it is the sum of all movements among census divisions), this increase over time is entirely due to population growth and age structure changes at the census division level.

Intraprovincial Migration at the Census Division Level

The projected number of people, by age, leaving each census division for each year of the projections, as well as their destination within the province, is modelled using the origin-destination migration rates by age for each census division over the past five years. Because migration rates by age group are different for each census division and because different age groups have different origin-destination behaviours, the methodology provides a powerful tool to project movers based on observed age and origin-destination migration patterns. The modelling is dynamic, taking into account the annual changes in age structure within census divisions.

The evolution of intraprovincial migration patterns in each census division was studied to identify specific trends and the intraprovincial migration rate assumptions were adjusted to account for these trends.