Ontario Population Projections Update 2006 - 2031

Ontario Population Projections Update
2006 – 2031

Ontario and Its 49 Census Divisions

Based on the 2001 Census

Spring 2007
Ontario Ministry of Finance

General inquiries regarding
Ontario Population Projections Update, 2006–2031
should be directed to:

Ministry of Finance Information Centre
Toll-free English and French inquiries 1-800-337-7222
Teletypewriter (TTY) 1-800-263-7776

Ce rapport est disponible en français sous le titre:
Mise à jour des projections démographiques pour l'Ontario, 2006–2031
sur le site Web du ministère des Finances de l'Ontario:

http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/french/economy/demographics/projections/2007/index.html
http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/french/economy/demographics/projections/2007/demog07.pdf

III. Assumptions

Base Population
Fertility
Mortality
International Migration
Interprovincial Migration
Intraprovincial Migration

Appendix of Statistical Tables

List of Statistical Tables
Map of Ontario Census Divisions

I. Introduction to the Update

This report presents population projections for Ontario and each of its 49 Census Divisions from the base year of 2006 to 2031. These population projections were prepared by the Ontario Ministry of Finance as an update to the 2005–2031 Ontario Ministry of Finance population projections released in Spring 2006.

The Ministry of Finance updates its population projections annually in order to provide interested users with projections that track, in the short term, the most recent trends in components of population growth, as well as the latest annual population estimates available from Statistics Canada.

Since the 2005-based population projections were published by the Ministry of Finance in Spring 2006, previously released Statistics Canada population estimates have been revised and additional data have been made available. Taking account of these changes in an update ensures that the projections remain as relevant as possible.

This report presents a summary of the updated projection results. It also discusses the updated base year (2006) and minor changes to the assumptions for each component of population growth at the Ontario and Census Division levels.

A more in-depth account of the Ministry of Finance projections methodology can be found in the Ontario Population Projections, 2004–2031 report on the Ministry of Finance Web site.

The updated population projections use as their base population the preliminary July 1, 2006 postcensal population estimates released by Statistics Canada in September 2006 for Ontario and in January 2007 for Census Divisions. For Ontario, this base is 12.69 million. These updated projections are not based on the recently released 2006 Census counts because the counts need to be adjusted for net undercoverage by Statistics Canada (available in Fall 2008).

In addition, the update includes minor changes to assumptions to keep short-term levels and rates in the components of population growth in line with recent trends. The end point of the projections remains July 1, 2031.

It should be noted that the long-term assumptions and methodology underlying the updated population projections remain largely unchanged from that used for recent projections. This means that the long-term trends and implications of the demographic outlook remain the same.

These population projections do not represent Ontario Government policy targets or desired population outcomes, nor do they incorporate explicit economic assumptions. The projections are developed using a standard demographic methodology. The Ministry's assumptions for population growth reflect past trends in all streams of migration and the continuing evolution of long-term fertility and mortality patterns in each Census Division. Population is projected for each of the 49 Census Divisions and summed to an Ontario total.

The updated projections include three scenarios for Ontario as a whole. The medium or reference scenario is considered “most likely” to occur. The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a reasonable forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth. At the Census Division level, an updated medium-growth scenario is provided. This corresponds to the updated medium-growth scenario for Ontario.

Section II provides the highlights of updated projection results, 2006–2031, at the Ontario and regional levels, including an analysis of age structure and components of population growth. Section III provides a description of the assumptions underlying each scenario of the update.

Appended to this report is a statistical appendix of the most commonly used tables. This provides users with up-to-date, detailed projections data.

II. Highlights

Highlights of the updated projections from 2006 to 2031 (reference scenario unless otherwise stated) are presented below.

Ontario's population is projected to experience fairly robust growth over the projection period, 2006–2031, under all three scenarios.
The population of Ontario in the reference scenario is projected to grow by 30 per cent, or 3.8 million, from an estimated 12.69 million on July 1, 2006, to 16.49 million on July 1, 2031. The population reaches 14.71 million under the low-growth scenario and 18.01 million under the high-growth scenario by 2031.

Line graph: Population Projections, Ontario

Over the projection period, the annual rate of population growth declines, from 1.1 percent on average over the first five years of the projections to an average of 0.8 percent over the last five years to 2031.
The number of births, projected to be 133,000 in the first year, increases gradually to reach almost 160,000 in 2025–26. The increase in births is due to a higher number of women of childbearing age and to the slightly increasing fertility rates assumed in the reference scenario. The annual number of births starts to decline slowly in 2026–27 to reach less than 158,000 at the end of the projection period. The total fertility rate is assumed to increase slightly from 1.51 in 2006–07 to 1.53 by 2011 and to remain constant for the rest of the projection period.
The number of deaths continues to increase as baby boomers age. From 89,000 in the first projected year, the annual number of deaths reaches 139,000 by the end of the projection period.
Over the first decade, when the number of births and deaths increases at about the same pace, natural increase remains roughly constant at about 44,000 annually. Over the rest of the projection period, natural increase declines rapidly, as the number of deaths rise faster than births, dropping to just under 19,000 by 2030–31. In the low-growth scenario, a pattern of natural decrease (more deaths than births) occurs starting in the year 2024–25. In the high-growth scenario, natural increase rises rapidly until 2022–23 and declines slowly thereafter.
Over the projection period, net migration will account for 74 per cent of total population growth. The share of total annual population growth accounted for by net migration will rise gradually over the projection period, from 62 per cent in 2006–07 to over 85 per cent by 2030–31. Immigration is by far the largest component of net migration.
The median age of Ontario's population is projected to rise to 43 years in 2031 from 38 years in 2006. The median age for women climbs from 39 to 43 years, and the median age for men increases from 37 to 42 years.
The population age 65 and over more than doubles from 1.6 million, or 12.9 per cent of the population, in 2006 to 3.5 million, or 21.4 per cent, in 2031. The population age 75 and over will more than double as well, increasing from 776,000, or 6.1 per cent of the population, in 2006 to 1.6 million, or 9.7 per cent, in 2031. The growth in seniors' share of the population will accelerate after 2011 as baby boomers begin to turn age 65. This same cohort will begin to reach age 75 a decade later, in 2021.
The number of children under age 15 rises by only 323,000, or 14 per cent, over the projection period, from 2.3 million to 2.6 million, while their share of the population falls from 17.8 percent in 2006 to 15.7 per cent in 2031.
The core working-age population, ages 15–64, is projected to increase by 18 per cent, from 8.8 million in 2006 to 10.4 million by 2031. Within this age group, the most rapid increase is among those over age 45. The core working-age population's share of total population will rise gradually from 69.2 per cent in 2006 to peak at 69.7 per cent in 2011, after which it will fall slowly to 62.9 per cent by 2031.
The overall dependency ratio, the ratio of the 0–14 and the 65+ age groups to the 15–64 age group, will continue its decline until 2011, falling gradually from 44.5 “dependants” for every 100 working-age individuals in 2006 to 43.6 in 2011. The favourable pattern of low dependency ratios will begin to change after 2011 with the arrival of large cohorts of baby boomers in the group age 65 and over. The dependency ratio will climb to over 59 by the year 2031.

Bar chart: Age Distribution, Ontario

Not all regions of Ontario are projected to experience the same rate of population growth. The Greater Toronto Area (GTA), comprised of the City of Toronto and the regional municipalities of Durham, Halton, Peel and York, will be by far the fastest-growing region. It is projected to grow from 5.9 million in 2006 to almost 8.3 million in 2031. The GTA's share of total Ontario population is projected to rise from 46.4 per cent in 2006 to 50.1 percent in 2031, or over one-half of Ontario's population. The GTA's share of Ontario population growth to 2031 is projected to be 62.7 per cent. International migration is a very significant factor in the projected increase in the GTA's population and share.
Within the GTA, Toronto's population is projected to increase from 2.63 million in 2006 to 3.06 million in 2031. Growth in the other regions of the GTA (Durham, Halton, Peel and York) will add about 2million people to the GTA. Within the GTA, only Toronto is projected to grow at a slower pace (16 percent) than Ontario as a whole. In Durham, Halton, Peel and York, growth ranging from 46 to 73 per cent is projected over the next 25 years.
The population of Central Ontario is projected to grow from 2,759,000 in 2006 to 3,536,000 in 2031. The region's share is projected to remain stable at about 21.5 percent. Many Census Divisions surrounding the GTA (Simcoe, Dufferin, Wellington and Waterloo) are projected to continue to experience above-average population growth.
The population of Eastern Ontario is projected to grow from 1,661,000 to 2,060,000 in 2031. Ottawa is projected to grow fastest, above the provincial average, from 840,000 in 2006 to 1.1 million in 2031. The rest of Eastern Ontario is projected to experience growth below the provincial average, with Frontenac growing fastest.
The population of Southwestern Ontario is projected to grow from 1,579,000 in 2006 to 1,858,000 in 2031. Growth rates within Southwestern Ontario will vary, with Essex growing fastest.
The population of Northern Ontario is projected to decline by 4.5 per cent over the period, from 806,000 in 2006 to 770,000 in 2031. This projected decline reflects Northern Ontario's migration trends and age structure. Among northern Census Divisions growth varies. Parry Sound is projected to experience the fastest population growth and Cochrane is projected to experience the fastest population decline.

Bar chart: Projected Population, Ontario Regions 2006, 2016 and 2031

III. Assumptions

This section explains the minor changes made to assumptions for each component of population growth at the Ontario and Census Division levels. This discussion can be supplemented by an in-depth account of the methodology used by the Ministry of Finance provided in Ontario Population Projections, 2004–2031, also on the ministry's Web site.

The long-term assumptions and methodology underlying these updated population projections are largely similar to those used for recent projections, except for immigration. Minor changes to assumptions have been made to keep short-term levels and rates in the components of population growth in line with the most recent trends, based on revised or new population estimates from Statistics Canada.

Base Population

The updated population projections presented in this report use as the base population the preliminary July 1, 2006 postcensal population estimates released by Statistics Canada in September 2006 for Ontario and in January 2007 for Census Divisions. For Ontario, this base population is 12.69 million. These updated projections are not based on the recently released 2006 Census counts because the counts need to be adjusted for net undercoverage by Statistics Canada (available in Fall 2008).

As well as providing a new starting point, updating the projections to a new base year slightly alters the projected age structure and population growth in each Census Division. It also has an impact on many components of population growth that are projected by using age-specific rates, such as births, deaths and several of the migration streams.

Fertility

Since the 2005-based population projections update was published by the Ontario Ministry of Finance in Spring 2006, new birth data for Ontario have become available for the 2004 calendar year. These new data show a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.503 in Ontario for 2004.

The 2004 fertility rates by five-year age group generally follow previous trends. Fertility at ages 15–24 remains in line with projected gradually lower rates, followed by stabilization. Fertility at ages 25–29 appears to be stabilizing, after a sharp decline. For the 30–34 age group, fertility is rising again, but remains volatile. Finally, fertility at ages 35+ continues to rise steadily.

Minor adjustments to age-specific fertility assumptions were made to keep track with these new data. These changes did not significantly affect the projected total fertility rate for Ontario in this update; it is still projected to rise from 1.51 in 2006–07 to 1.53 by 2011–12 and remain constant for the rest of the projection period in the reference scenario. For the low- and high-growth scenarios, the assumptions remain the same as in previous projections: a steady decline or rise to TFRs of 1.3 and 1.75, respectively.

At the Census Division level, no new data on births were available and the reference period for Census Division fertility rates remains 2001 to 2003. The evolution of age-specific fertility at the Census Division level remains tied to the provincial assumptions defined above.

Mortality

Revised population estimates by Statistics Canada for 2004–05 presented a higher number of deaths in Ontario than was previously assumed. In the updated population projections, short-term mortality assumptions reflect this change. The long-term assumptions remain unchanged. The life expectancies at birth for 2031 remain at 82.6 years for males and 85.0 years for females.

Similarly, for both low- and high-growth scenarios, the mortality assumptions are adjusted in the short-term but remain unchanged for the long-term. In the low-growth scenario, life expectancy increases gradually from its recent levels to reach 80.9 years for males and 83.6 years for females by 2031. In the high-growth scenario, life expectancy reaches 84.5 and 86.3 years for males and females, respectively.

Male
Life Expectancy, Ontario
	1976	1986	1996	2006	2016	2026	2031
At Birth	70.8	73.8	75.9	78.5	80.4	81.8	82.6
At Age 40	33.7	35.8	37.6	39.6	41.2	42.5	43.1
At Age 65	13.9	15.0	16.1	17.8	18.9	19.8	20.3
Female
At Birth	78.0	80.0	81.3	82.9	83.8	84.5	85.0
At Age 40	29.9	41.3	42.4	43.5	44.3	45.0	45.4
At Age 65	18.2	19.2	19.9	20.8	21.4	21.9	22.2
Source: Statistics Canada, 1976–1996, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projection assumptions (reference scenario), 2006–2031.

At the Census Division level, the mortality structure has been updated using the revised population estimates provided by Statistics Canada.

International Migration

Immigration

Canada received 262,200 immigrants in the 2005 calendar year — of which 140,500, or 53.6 per cent, came to Ontario — surpassing the upper bound of the Federal Government's immigration target for the year (220,000 to 245,000). Similarly, over the 2006 calendar year, 251,700 immigrants came to Canada — of which 125,900, or 50 per cent, settled in Ontario — just shy of the upper bound of the higher federal target range for 2006 (225,000 to 255,000).

The new target range set by Citizenship and Immigration Canada for the 2007 calendar year is 240,000 to 265,000 immigrants for Canada. Over the past few years, the target range has increased significantly and is likely to remain higher or keep increasing in the future.

The immigration assumption in the updated projections takes account of these developments. In the reference scenario, the assumed annual number of immigrants to Ontario for the entire projection period is increased to 134,000, up from 125,000 previously, to reflect the higher target range for Canada. This level is in line with Ontario's historic share of immigration to Canada.

Similarly, for the low- and high-growth scenarios, immigration assumptions are adjusted upward. Immigration in the low-growth scenario is set at 100,000 annually, up from 90,000 previously, for the entire projection period. Immigration in the high-growth scenario is set at 160,000 annually, up from 150,000 previously, for the entire projection period.

The projected immigration shares for each Census Division and the age-sex distribution of immigrants have been updated to reflect the revised immigration estimates provided by Statistics Canada. For most Census Divisions, the shares remain constant throughout the projection period. The recent age-sex distribution of immigrants is also assumed to remain constant.

Emigration

The preliminary estimate for total emigration from Ontario is 18,200 in 2005–06. As in the 2005-based projections, emigration is assumed to increase in a linear fashion from this new level in all three scenarios, reaching 30,000 by 2030–31.

Projected shares of emigration for each Census Division and the age-sex distribution of emigrants are updated to Statistics Canada's most recent estimates. The shares and the age-sex distribution are both based on the average of the past five years.

Non-Permanent Residents

The assumption for this component remains unchanged from the previous projections for all three scenarios and for the distribution by Census Division, with the exception of the first projection year (2006–07). According to Statistics Canada, there were about 185,100 Non-permanent Residents living in Ontario in 2006, including foreign students, temporary workers and refugee claimants.

In the reference scenario, the change in the stock of Non-permanent Residents is assumed to be -2,000 for 2006–07 and 4,000 annually over the 2007–08 to 2012–13 period, matching the average annual change in Non-permanent Residents over the past 30 years. The annual gain is then assumed to fall gradually to zero by 2030–31.

The high-growth scenario assumes a gain of 2,000 Non-permanent Residents for 2006–07 and an annual gain of 6,000 over the rest of the projection period. The low-growth scenario assumes a net loss of 6,000 Non-permanent Residents for 2006–07 and then no gain over the rest of the projection period.

Projected shares of Non-permanent Residents for each Census Division are based on the share held by each Census Division in the 2001 Census. The age-sex distribution of Non-permanent Residents is updated based on the latest revised estimates. The distribution pattern is assumed to remain constant over the projection period.

Interprovincial Migration

Preliminary estimates from Statistics Canada show that Ontario experienced a third consecutive year of net loss through interprovincial migration in 2005–06. The assumptions for this component have been adjusted to reflect this recent trend. The assumption in the reference scenario is a gradually decreasing annual net loss until 2008–09. From 2009–10 on, the assumption is a net gain of 5,000 through interprovincial migration, based on the long-term positive interprovincial migration pattern for Ontario in the past.

To maintain the range between the three scenarios, the assumptions for the low- and high-growth scenarios have also been lowered for the first three projection years.

At the Census Division level, interprovincial migration rates have been updated to take into account an additional year of data — the revised Statistics Canada estimates for 2004–05. The rates are now based on a five-year average, covering the 2000–01 to 2004–05 period.

Intraprovincial Migration

Intraprovincial migration, or the movement of population within the province, affects population growth only at the Census Division level. At the Ontario-level, intraprovincial movements net out to zero in all three scenarios.

Revised estimates of intraprovincial migration for 2004–05 have been released by Statistics Canada. Recent trends that affect the assumptions in this update are a lower net loss of population for most Northern Ontario Census Divisions and lower net gains for Central, Eastern and Southwestern Ontario.

The number of people by age projected to leave each Census Division for each year of the projections, as well as their destination within the province, is modeled using the most recent origin-destination migration rates by age for each Census Division. The reference period on which these rates are based has been updated to include the revised Statistics Canada estimates for 2004–05. The rates in the update are based on a five-year average covering the 2000–01 to 2004–05 period. The evolution of intraprovincial migration patterns in each Census Division was studied to identify specific trends. For some Census Divisions, the intraprovincial migration rate assumptions have been adjusted slightly to reflect these trends.