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Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of the Fourth Quarter 2007

March 27, 2008

Population Growth

Population Growth, Ontario, 4th Quarter, 2007
(Thousands)
Population, October 1, 2007
12,850.6
Plus Births
32.3
Minus Deaths
23.8
Plus Immigrants
26.3
Minus Net Emigrants
5.0
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents
-15.2
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals
13.6
Minus Interprovincial Departures
16.8
Population, January 1, 2008
12,861.9
Source: Statistics Canada
Pie charts: Immigration to Canada, 2007 and 2007

Ontario’s population reached 12,861,940 on January 1, 2008, with growth of 11,304 people in the fourth quarter. This compares with growth of 1,505 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Births and Deaths

Births and deaths increased by 0.4 per cent and 3.9 per cent, respectively, from the same quarter of 2006.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 8,479 in the quarter, down from 9,225 in the same quarter of 2006.

International Migration

Immigration to Ontario was 26,267 in the quarter, a decrease of 10.8 per cent from the level of 29,446 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 47.2 per cent of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, down from 50.6 per cent in the same quarter of 2006.

There were 5,012 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, up from 4,981 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 45.8 per cent of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

Ontario’s total immigrants and total emigrants were 111,436 and 20,709, respectively, for calendar year 2007.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs - i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) declined by 15,206 in the fourth quarter.

Net international migration was 6,049 in the fourth quarter, up from 2,351 in the same quarter of the previous year.

For calendar year 2007, net international migration was 95,979, down from 101,077 in the previous year.

Interprovincial Migration

In the fourth quarter of 2007, Ontario had a net loss of 3,224 people to other provinces compared to a net loss of 10,071 people in the same quarter of 2006. Ontario experienced net losses in its exchanges with nine of the other 12 provinces and territories, but mainly with Alberta (2,352).

Year-Over-year Growth

Over the calendar year 2007, Ontario’s population grew by 121,219 or one per cent, up from 0.9 per cent the previous year. Ontario’s population growth rate in 2007 was higher than other provinces except the western provinces: Alberta (2%), Saskatchewan (1.7%), BC (1.5%) and Manitoba (1.1%). Canada’s population growth rate for the year was 1.1 per cent.

Contact Paul Lewis (416 325-0821) / Victor Caballero (416 325-0825)

Ontario Demographic Factsheet1

  Intercensal Estimates Postcensal Estimates1
  1991 1996 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
POPULATION (000s)          
Canada 28,031 29,611 31,021 31,373 31,676 31,995 32,312 32,649 32,976
Ontario 10,428 11,083 11,898 12,102 12,263 12,420 12,565 12,705 12,804
Ontario as % of Canada 37.2 37.4 38.4 38.6 38.7 38.8 38.9 38.9 38.8
Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate
(Over previous year shown)		 2.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%)                  
0-4 7.0 6.8 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3
5-14 13.1 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.2 13.0 12.8 12.5 12.2
15-24 14.5 13.2 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.6
25-44 34.2 32.9 31.5 31.3 30.9 30.6 30.2 29.8 29.4
45-64 19.6 21.3 23.2 23.6 24.1 24.6 25.2 25.8 26.3
65-74 7.0 7.3 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9
75+ 4.6 5.0 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%)                
0-14 20.1 20.3 19.4 19.1 18.8 18.5 18.2 17.8 17.5
15-64 68.3 67.4 68.1 68.3 68.5 68.7 69.0 69.2 69.3
65+ 11.6 12.2 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.2
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS                
Total Dependency Ratio (%)3 62.6 64.1 63.1 62.5 61.8 61.1 60.6 60.1 59.7
Median Age (yrs.) 33.3 35.0 36.7 37.0 37.4 37.7 37.9 38.2 38.5
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) 26-45 31-50 36-55 37-56 38-57 39-58 40-59 41-60 42-61
Total Fertility Rate 4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 n.a. n.a.
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4 80.8 81.3 82.2 82.2 82.4 82.7 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4 75.0 75.9 77.5 77.7 77.8 78.3 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Families (000s)5 2,727 2,933 3,191 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3,422 n.a.
Households (000s)5 3,638 3,925 4,219 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4,555 n.a.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%)                
GTA 42.0 43.0 44.6 45.0 45.3 45.7 46.0 46.4 46.8
Central 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.0 21.9 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.6
Eastern 13.8 13.8 13.5 13.4 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.0
Southwestern 13.7 13.4 13.0 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.4 12.4
Northeastern 5.8 5.4 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4
Northwestern 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9

 

  MOF Projections2
  2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
POPULATION (000s)          
Canada 33,910 35,267 36,609 37,883 39,029
Ontario 13,426 14,248 15,051 15,810 16,489
Ontario as % of Canada 39.6 40.4 41.1 41.7 42.2
Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate
(Over previous year shown)		 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%)          
0-4 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.0
5-14 11.3 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.7
15-24 13.4 12.7 11.6 11.1 11.1
25-44 28.3 28.0 28.0 27.5 26.5
45-64 27.9 27.9 27.3 26.1 25.3
65-74 7.4 8.8 10.0 10.9 11.7
75+ 6.4 6.6 7.2 8.4 9.7
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%)          
0-14 16.5 16.0 16.0 16.0 15.7
15-64 69.7 68.6 66.8 64.7 62.9
65+ 13.8 15.4 17.2 19.3 21.4
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS          
Total Dependency Ratio (%)3 58.5 59.6 62.9 68.6 74.2
Median Age (yrs.) 39.4 40.2 40.9 41.8 42.6
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) 46-65 51-70 56-75 61-80 66-85
Total Fertility Rate 4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4 83.3 83.8 84.1 84.5 85.0
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4 79.5 80.4 81.1 81.8 82.6
Families (000s)5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Households (000s)5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%)          
GTA 47.6 48.5 49.2 49.7 50.1
Central 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.4
Eastern 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.5
Southwestern 12.1 11.8 11.6 11.4 11.3
Northeastern 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.3
Northwestern 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4

 

COMPONENTS OF CHANGE6 (000s)6 – Year Beginning July 1st
Period Population,
Beginning
of Period 		Total
Change 		Births Deaths Natural
Increase
Five-Year          
1991-96 10,428 655 738 381 357
1996-2001 11,083 815 659 403 256
2001-06 11,898 808 658 420 238
Annual          
2001-02 11,898 204 129 81 48
2002-03 12,102 161 129 83 46
2003-04 12,263 158 133 84 49
2004-05 12,420 145 133 84 48
2005-06 12,565 140 134 87 47
2006-07 12,705 99 134 90 44

 

Period International Migration Interprovincial Migration
Immig. Net
Emig 		Net
NPRs 		Net In Out Net
Five-Year              
1991-96 632 123 -115 394 338 378 -40
1996-2001 585 124 38 498 371 303 69
2001-06 653 95 41 600 307 336 -30
Annual              
2001-02 153 19 17 151 70 65 5
2002-03 110 18 22 114 64 64 1
2003-04 128 17 5 116 57 64 -7
2004-05 130 20 -1 108 59 71 -11
2005-06 133 20 -2 111 56 73 -18
2006-07 115 21 -5 90 71 108 -36
"1. Statistics Canada's population estimates and components of change are 2001 Census-based adjusted for net census undercoverage.
2. Except for Canada, all projections are produced by Ontario Ministry of Finance, 2006-2031 (Spring 2007 Update). Projections for Canada are Statistics Canada.
3. Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0-19 and 65+ (elderly) to the population aged 20-64.
4. Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year.
5. Families and households are Census data.
6. In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs).
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Office of Economic Policy
Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch

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