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Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of First Quarter 2008

July 4, 2008

Population Growth

Population Growth, Ontario, 1st Quarter, 2008
(Thousands)
PPopulation, January 1, 2008
12,861.9
Plus Births
32.2
Minus Deaths
25.3
Plus Immigrants
23.5
Minus Net Emigrants
4.2
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents
6.8
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals
15.9
Minus Interprovincial Departures
19.0
Population, April 1, 2008
12,891.8
Source: Statistics Canada
Pie charts: Immigration to Canada, 2007 and 2007

Ontario’s population reached 12,891,787 on April 1, 2008, with growth of 29,847 people in the first quarter. This compares to growth of 25,010 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Births and Deaths

Births and deaths increased by 0.6 per cent and 4.2 per cent, respectively, from the same quarter of 2007.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 6,866 in the quarter, down from 7,691 in the same quarter of 2007.

International Migration

Immigration to Ontario was 23,497 in the quarter, an increase of 5.1 per cent from the level of 22,348 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 44.2 per cent of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, down from 46.7 per cent in the same quarter of 2007.

There were 4,199 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, virtually unchanged from the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 45.7 per cent of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The net change in the number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) was 6,757 in the quarter.

In summary, net international migration was 26,055 in the first quarter, up from 22,048 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Interprovincial Migration

In the first quarter of 2008, Ontario had a net loss of 3,074 people to other provinces compared to a net loss of 4,729 people in the same quarter of 2007. Ontario experienced net losses in its exchanges with eight of the 12 other provinces and territories with the largest net losses to Alberta (2,201) and Newfoundland and Labrador (554).

Population Growth

Over the 12-month period ending March 31, 2008, Ontario’s population grew by 126,056 or 1.0 per cent, up from 0.9 per cent in the comparable previous year. Ontario’s population growth rate in this period was fifth highest after Alberta and Saskatchewan (each at 1.8 per cent), British Columbia (1.5 per cent) and Manitoba (1.1 per cent). Canada’s population growth rate for the period was 1.1 per cent.

Contact Paul Lewis (416 325-0821) / Victor Caballero (416 325-0825)

Ontario Demographic Factsheet1

  Intercensal Estimates   Postcensal Estimates1  
  1991 1996 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
POPULATION (000s)                  
Canada 28,031 29,611 31,021 31,373 31,676 31,995 32,312 32,649 32,976
Ontario 10,428 11,083 11,898 12,102 12,263 12,420 12,565 12,705 12,804
Ontario as % of Canada 37.2 37.4 38.4 38.6 38.7 38.8 38.9 38.9 38.8
Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate
(Over previous year shown) 		2.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%)                  
0-4 7.0 6.8 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3
5-14 13.1 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.2 13.0 12.8 12.5 12.2
15-24 14.5 13.2 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.6
25-44 34.2 32.9 31.5 31.3 30.9 30.6 30.2 29.8 29.4
45-64 19.6 21.3 23.2 23.6 24.1 24.6 25.2 25.8 26.3
65-74 7.0 7.3 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9
75+ 4.6 5.0 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%)                  
0-14 20.1 20.3 19.4 19.1 18.8 18.5 18.2 17.8 17.5
15-64 68.3 67.4 68.1 68.3 68.5 68.7 69.0 69.2 69.3
65+ 11.6 12.2 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.2
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS                  
Total Dependency Ratio (%)3 62.6 64.1 63.1 62.5 61.8 61.1 60.6 60.1 59.7
Median Age (yrs.) 33.3 35.0 36.7 37.0 37.4 37.7 37.9 38.2 38.5
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) 26-45 31-50 36-55 37-56 38-57 39-58 40-59 41-60 42-61
Total Fertility Rate 4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 n.a. n.a.
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4 80.8 81.3 82.2 82.2 82.4 82.7 82.7 n.a. n.a.
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4 75.0 75.9 77.5 77.7 77.8 78.3 78.5 n.a. n.a.
Families (000s)5 2,727 2,933 3,191 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3,422 n.a.
Households (000s)5 3,638 3,925 4,219 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4,555 n.a.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%)                  
GTA 42.0 43.0 44.6 45.0 45.3 45.7 46.0 46.4 46.8
Central 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.0 21.9 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.6
Eastern 13.8 13.8 13.5 13.4 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.0
Southwestern 13.7 13.4 13.0 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.4 12.4
Northeastern 5.8 5.4 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4
Northwestern 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8

 

  MOF Projections2   
  2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
POPULATION (000s)          
Canada 33,910 35,267 36,609 37,883 39,029
Ontario 13,349 14,150 14,937 15,688 16,366
Ontario as % of Canada 39.4 40.1 40.8 41.4 41.9
Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate
(Over previous year shown) 		1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%)          
0-4 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9
5-14 11.2 10.6 10.5 10.6 10.6
15-24 13.4 12.7 11.6 11.0 11.0
25-44 28.1 27.7 27.7 27.2 26.2
45-64 28.1 28.1 27.5 26.4 25.4
65-74 7.4 8.9 10.1 11.0 11.9
75+ 6.5 6.8 7.4 8.7 10.0
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%)          
0-14 16.4 15.8 15.8 15.7 15.5
15-64 69.6 68.5 66.8 64.6 62.7
65+ 14.0 15.6 17.5 19.7 21.9
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS          
Total Dependency Ratio (%)3 58.7 59.8 63.0 68.8 74.7
Median Age (yrs.) 39.6 40.5 41.3 42.2 43.1
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) 46-65 51-70 56-75 61-80 66-85
Total Fertility Rate 4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4 83.2 83.6 84.1 84.5 85.0
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.) 4 79.4 80.2 80.9 81.7 82.5
Families (000s)5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Households (000s)5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%)          
GTA 47.7 48.7 49.5 50.2 50.8
Central 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.3 21.2
Eastern 12.8 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.2
Southwestern 12.1 11.8 11.5 11.2 11.0
Northeastern 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.4
Northwestern 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4

 

COMPONENTS OF CHANGE6 (000s)6 – Year Beginning July 1st
Period Population,
Beginning
of Period 		Total
Change 		Births Deaths Natural
Increase
Five-Year          
1991-96 10,428 655 738 381 357
1996-2001 11,083 815 659 403 256
2001-06 11,898 808 658 420 238
Annual          
2001-02 11,898 204 129 81 48
2002-03 12,102 161 129 83 46
2003-04 12,263 158 133 84 49
2004-05 12,420 145 133 84 48
2005-06 12,565 140 134 87 47
2006-07 12,705 99 134 90 44

 

Period International Migration Interprovincial Migration
Immig. Net
Emig 		Net
NPRs 		Net In Out Net
Five-Year              
1991-96 632 123 -115 394 338 378 -40
1996-2001 585 124 38 498 371 303 69
2001-06 653 95 41 600 307 336 -30
Annual              
2001-02 153 19 17 151 70 65 5
2002-03 110 18 22 114 64 64 1
2003-04 128 17 5 116 57 64 -7
2004-05 130 20 -1 108 59 71 -11
2005-06 133 20 -2 111 56 73 -18
2006-07 115 21 -5 90 71 108 -36
"1. Statistics Canada's population estimates and components of change are 2001 Census-based adjusted for net census undercoverage.
2. Except for Canada, all projections are produced by Ontario Ministry of Finance, 2007-2031 (Spring 2008 Update). Projections for Canada are Statistics Canada.
3. Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0-19 and 65+ (elderly) to the population aged 20-64.
4. Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year.
5. Families and households are Census data.
6. In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs).
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Office of Economic Policy
Labour and Demographic Analysis Branch

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