For Immediate Release
October 4, 2005

TORONTO - Ontario is well positioned to manage the opportunities and challenges of the next 20 years , according to a long-range assessment released yesterday by the Ministry of Finance.

“This report is an open invitation to governments, businesses, academics, labour organizations, not-for-profit organizations, and all citizens to engage in the public debate on key issues affecting Ontario's future," Finance Minister Greg Sorbara said. “Toward 2025 is part of the McGuinty government's commitment to transparency and accountability to Ontarians. It is also the first report of its kind in Canada and among the first in the world produced by a sub-national government."

Toward 2025 outlines some of the challenges and opportunities that the province of Ontario, its government, its businesses and its people face over the next 20 years. These include: creating an environment of flexibility where everyone can readily adapt to a rapidly changing global economy; maximizing growth in the economy particularly by investing in human capital and encouraging research and innovation so that Ontarians would be better off; and continuing to responsibly manage the finances of the Ontario government.

Toward 2025 projects that after balancing the Budget in 2008-09, the province should be on track for a series of surpluses for the following decade. However, considering the challenges posed by an aging population, slower labour force growth and health care costs, Ontario may face small deficits by 2019-20.

Key projections of the report include:

• Population growth of 3.1 million - for a total population of 15.7 million by 2025.
  
  
• Percentage of seniors rising rapidly from 12.9 per cent in 2005 to 19.4 per cent of the population in 2025.
  
  
• Health care's share of provincial program spending could rise to almost 55 per cent in 2024-25 from 45 per cent in 2004-05.
  
  
• Federal transfers dropping from 16 per cent of Ontario's total revenues to 13.5 per cent by 2024-25. Transfers for health, postsecondary education and social programs as a share of Ontario program spending in these areas decreasing from 24 per cent in 2005-06 to 18 per cent in 2024-25.
  
  
• GDP per person rising from $38,000 in 2004 to $52,000 by 2025 (after adjusting for inflation), due to positive productivity growth.
  
  
• Province's debt to GDP ratio declining, leading to less spending on debt interest.

"It is important to remember that Toward 2025 is not a plan or an outline of current government policy. It is an analysis of anticipated challenges and opportunities - a guide to discussion and debate," said Minister Sorbara “It is also critical that business and the not-for-profit and academic sectors, work with government to encourage entrepreneurship and innovation and to champion Ontario to the rest of the world."

In accordance with the Fiscal Transparency and Accountability Act, 2004, the report presents a long-range assessment of Ontario's economic and fiscal future. It includes a description of anticipated changes in the Ontario economy and in the demographic profile over the next 20 years, a description of the potential impact of these changes on the public sector and on Ontario's fiscal situation during that period, and an analysis of key issues that are likely to affect the long-term fiscal and economic sustainability of the economy and the government balance sheet. Copies of the report can be downloaded at www.fin.gov.on.ca.

Contact: Ministry of Finance Information Centre 1-800-263-7965 Toll-Free (Canada/U.S.)