: 2010 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• Foreword
  • Helping Ontario Families
  • Managing Responsibly
  • Economic and Fiscal Outlook
  • Tax and Pension Modernization for Ontarians
  • Participating in the 2011 Pre-Budget Consultations

Chapter 1: Open Ontario

Section A: Helping Ontario Families

• Highlights
• Helping Electricity Consumers
  • Long-Term Energy Plan
  • Energy Prices
  • Ontario Clean Energy Benefit
• Tax Relief for People and Businesses
  • Supports for Low- to Middle-Income Ontarians
  • Children’s Activity Tax Credit
  • Opening Ontario to Jobs and Growth
• Infrastructure Investments
• Investing in Knowledge and Skills
• Securing Our Retirement Future
• Protecting Consumers Through Strong Financial Regulation
• Supporting Ontario Prosperity and Jobs
  • Public Transit
  • Jobs and Economic Growth in Northern Ontario
  • Auto Sector
  • Financial Services

Section B: Managing Responsibly

• Highlights
• A Realistic and Responsible Plan
• Modernizing Ontario’s Electronic Land Registration System
• Strengthening Accountability and Transparency
• Managing Health Care Costs While Preserving Front-Line Services
• Reducing the Size of the Ontario Public Service
• Compensation Measures
• Balancing Infrastructure Priorities
• Ongoing Comprehensive Review

Chapter 2: Ontario's Economic Outlook

• Highlights
• Overview
• The State of Ontario’s Economic Recovery
• Global Challenges Affect Ontario
• U.S. Economic Growth Uncertain
• Oil Prices to Edge Up
• Canadian Dollar Strengthening
• Interest Rates
• Global Financial Risks
• Impact of Changes in Global Factors
• Outlook for Ontario’s Economic Recovery
• Details of the Ontario Economic Outlook
• Private-Sector Forecasts
• Comparison to the 2010 Ontario Budget Forecast

Chapter 3: Fiscal Outlook

• Highlights

Section A: Overview

Section B: 2010–11 Fiscal Performance

• 2010–11 Revenue Changes Since the 2010 Budget
  • Details of 2010–11 In-Year Revenue Changes
• 2010–11 Expense Changes Since the 2010 Budget
  • Details of 2010–11 In-Year Expense Changes

Section C: Ontario’s Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook

• Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
  • Medium-Term Revenue Changes Since the 2010 Budget
• Medium-Term Expense Outlook
• Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook
  • Risks to the Fiscal Outlook

Section D: Federal Partner

• A Need for Immigrant Settlement and Skills Training Support
• A Need for Reliable Long-Term Funding Support
• An Ongoing Partnership

Section E: Details of Ontario’s Finances

Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management

• Highlights
• Long-Term Public Borrowing
• Debt
• Total Debt Composition
• Debt-to-GDP Ratios
• Cost of Debt
• Risk Exposure

Chapter 5: Tax and Pension Modernization

• Highlights
• Ontario’s Tax Plan for Jobs and Growth
  • Supporting People
  • Federal Government Incentives Support Harmonization
  • Ontario’s Tax Plan for Jobs and Growth
• Other Measures
  • Amendments Relating to the Alcohol and Gaming Regulation and Public Protection Act, 1996
  • Modernizing Corporate Group Taxation
  • Amendments Relating to the Taxation of Benefit Plans
• Modernizing Ontario’s Pension System

Chapter 6: How to Participate in the 2011 Pre-Budget Consultations

• Written Submissions
• Online Submissions

Chapter 1: Open Ontario

• Table 1: Benefits for Eligible Customers

Chapter 2: Ontario's Economic Outlook

• Table 1: Ontario Economic Outlook
• Table 2: External Variables
• Table 3: How Sustained Changes in Key Assumptions Would Affect Ontario Real GDP Growth
• Table 4: The Ontario Economy, 2008 to 2013
• Table 5: Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Real GDP Growth
• Table 6: Changes in Key Economic Forecast Assumptions: 2010 Fall Economic Statement (FES) Compared to 2010 Budget

Chapter 3: Fiscal Outlook

• Table 1: 2010–11 In-Year Fiscal Performance
• Table 2: Summary of Revenue Changes Since the Budget
• Table 3: Summary of Expense Changes Since the Budget
• Table 4: Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
• Table 5: Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Changes Since the Budget
• Table 6: Medium-Term Fiscal Plan and Outlook
• Table 7: Medium-Term Fiscal Plan and Outlook
• Table 8: Revenue
• Table 9: Total Expense
• Table 10: Other Expense
• Table 11: 2010–11 Infrastructure Expenditures
• Table 12: Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics

Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management

• Table 1: 2010–11 Borrowing Program: Province and Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation (OEFC)
• Table 2: Medium-Term Borrowing Outlook: Province and OEFC

Chapter 5: Tax and Pension Modernization

• Table 1: Ontario’s Tax Plan for Jobs and Growth

Chapter 1: Open Ontario

• Chart 1: Coal-Fired Emissions Down More Than 70 Per Cent Since 2003
• Chart 2: Installed Number of Wind Turbines Since 2003
• Chart 3: Residential Monthly Bill Projections, 2010 to 2030
• Chart 4: Key Ontario Tax-Related Benefits for People
• Chart 5: HST Encourages Investment in Machinery and Equipment
• Chart 6: How Do the HST and Tax Cuts for Business Create Jobs?
• Chart 7: Adults Who Completed Postsecondary Education
• Chart 8: Auto Insurance Costs Held Below Inflation Since 2003
• Chart 9: Location of the Ring of Fire
• Chart 10: Government Track Record on Deficit Reduction
• Chart 11: Ontario’s Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook
• Chart 12: Government Spending Per Capita, 2008–09

Chapter 2: Ontario's Economic Outlook

• Chart 1: The Progress of Ontario’s Economic Recovery
• Chart 2: Changing Private-Sector Growth Forecasts
• Chart 3: Pace of Ontario Real GDP Growth Is Slowing
• Chart 4: Comparative Real GDP Growth Forecast: 2010
• Chart 5: Ontario Jobs Returning
• Chart 6: Exports Continue to Gradually Recover
• Chart 7: U.S. Real GDP Growth
• Chart 8: U.S. Auto Sales
• Chart 9: Crude Oil Prices
• Chart 10: Canadian Dollar
• Chart 11: Interest Rates
• Chart 12: Credit Risk Has Diminished in Canada
• Chart 13: Exports of Goods and Services Growing
• Chart 14: HST Encourages Investment in Machinery and Equipment
• Chart 15: Recovery Supported by Strong Government Planned Investment for 2010
• Chart 16: Modest Rise in Ontario House Prices
• Chart 17: Nearly Half a Million Jobs Expected

Chapter 3: Fiscal Outlook

• Chart 1: Ontario’s Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook
• Chart 2: Composition of Revenue, 2010–11
• Chart 3: Composition of Total Expense, 2010–11
• Chart 4: Composition of Program Expense, 2010–11

Chapter 4: Borrowing and Debt Management

• Chart 1: Borrowing — Domestic Market
• Chart 2: Borrowing — International Markets
• Chart 3: Total Debt Composition as at September 30, 2010
• Chart 4: Net Debt-to-GDP
• Chart 5: Accumulated Deficit-to-GDP
• Chart 6: Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average) on Total Debt
• Chart 7: Net Interest Rate Resetting Exposure
• Chart 8: Foreign Exchange Exposure

Chapter 5: Tax and Pension Modernization

• Chart 1: HST Rebates, 2011–12
• Chart 2: Proposed Energy and Property Tax Credit Enhancement for Seniors