2014 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review
Chapter III: Fiscal Outlook

Section D: Details of Ontario's Finances

Fiscal Tables and Charts

This section provides information on the Province's historical financial performance, key fiscal indicators, and details of Ontario's fiscal plan and outlook.

TABLE 3.6 Ontario's Recovery Plan
($ Billions)
  Current Outlook
2014–15
Medium-Term Outlook Extended Outlook
2017–18
  2015–16 2016–17
Revenue 118.4 124.2 129.0 134.5
Expense        
Programs 119.4 120.1 120.2 119.4
Interest on Debt 10.8 11.8 12.9 13.9
Total Expense 130.2 131.9 133.2 133.3
Reserve 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.2
Surplus/(Deficit) (12.5) (8.9) (5.3)
Net Debt 287.3 303.3 315.2 322.5
Accumulated Deficit 189.1 198.0 203.3 203.3
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

TABLE 3.7 Revenue
($ Millions)
  2011–12 2012–13 Actual
2013–14
Current Outlook
2014–15
Taxation Revenue        
Personal Income Tax 24,548 25,574 26,929 29,085
Sales Tax1 20,159 20,957 20,481 21,886
Corporations Tax 9,944 12,093 11,423 9,856
Education Property Tax2 5,765 5,511 5,457 5,661
Employer Health Tax 5,092 5,137 5,283 5,551
Ontario Health Premium 2,916 3,067 3,128 3,341
Gasoline Tax 2,380 2,390 2,363 2,395
Land Transfer Tax 1,432 1,484 1,614 1,604
Tobacco Tax 1,150 1,142 1,110 1,300
Fuel Tax 710 710 718 734
Beer and Wine Tax 561 560 557 572
Electricity Payments-In-Lieu of Taxes 367 324 543 329
Other Taxes 574 469 360 536
Total 75,598 79,418 79,966 82,848
Government of Canada        
Canada Health Transfer 10,705 11,315 11,940 12,350
Canada Social Transfer 4,469 4,591 4,689 4,841
Equalization 2,200 3,261 3,169 1,988
Infrastructure Programs 362 116 123 296
Labour Market Programs 904 897 909 910
Social Housing 489 483 474 458
Wait Times Reduction Fund 97 97 96
Other Federal Payments 2,079 901 877 1,047
Total 21,305 21,661 22,277 21,890
Government Business Enterprises        
Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation 1,882 1,816 2,009 2,053
Liquor Control Board of Ontario 1,659 1,721 1,723 1,779
Ontario Power Generation Inc./Hydro One Inc. 872 932 1,605 1,194
Total 4,413 4,469 5,337 5,026
Other Non-Tax Revenue        
Reimbursements 831 932 962 996
Vehicle and Driver Registration Fees 1,075 1,125 1,248 1,442
Electricity Debt Retirement Charge 952 939 954 940
Power Supply Contract Recoveries 1,372 1,323 1,296 959
Sales and Rentals 1,193 1,188 1,160 2,058
Other Fees and Licences 776 760 759 795
Net Reduction of Power Purchase Contract Liability 317 263 243 217
Royalties 200 226 242 274
Miscellaneous Other Non-Tax Revenue3 1,741 1,065 1,467 917
Total 8,457 7,821 8,331 8,598
Total Revenue 109,773 113,369 115,911 118,362
1 Sales Tax revenue is net of the Ontario Sales Tax Credit and the energy component of the Ontario Energy and Property Tax Credit.
2 Education Property Tax revenue is net of the property tax credit component of the Ontario Energy and Property Tax Credit and the Ontario Senior Homeowners' Property Tax Grant.
3 Relatively high Miscellaneous Other Non-Tax revenue in 2011–12 reflects one-time revenues from Chrysler's repayment of an Ontario loan and higher-than-usual recoveries of prior-year-expenditures. In 2013–14, it includes the gain on the sale of the Province's shares of General Motors Company.
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

TABLE 3.8 Total Expense
($ Millions)
Ministry Expense 2011–12 2012–13 Actual
2013–14
Current Outlook
2014–15
Aboriginal Affairs1 67 65 63 70.7
Agriculture and Food / Rural Affairs1 1,038 1,016 864 1,137.4
Attorney General 1,705 1,683 1,813 1,774.2
Board of Internal Economy 271 197 199 204.8
Children and Youth Services 3,855 3,912 3,997 4,222.0
Citizenship and Immigration 130 130 120 120.7
Community and Social Services 9,347 9,720 10,001 10,791.0
Community Safety and Correctional Services1 2,170 2,280 2,346 2,433.9
Consumer Services 19 20 24 25.2
Economic Development, Trade and
Employment / Research and Innovation1
973 963 822 1,011.9
Education1 23,041 23,141 23,644 24,839.9
Energy1 498 341 312 332.8
Environment1 524 485 480 490.2
Executive Offices 31 30 30 35.8
Finance1 933 849 889 1,014.3
Francophone Affairs, Office of 5 5 5 5.2
Government Services1 1,104 1,143 785 1,028.8
Health and Long-Term Care 46,491 47,571 48,909 50,054.8
Infrastructure1 331 66 152 279.6
Labour 184 281 303 311.2
Municipal Affairs and Housing1 823 825 840 879.6
Natural Resources1 719 694 720 713.2
Northern Development and Mines 726 718 719 754.3
Tourism, Culture and Sport1 1,170 1,424 1,337 1,235.7
Training, Colleges and Universities1 7,113 7,346 7,581 7,847.1
Transportation 2,339 2,478 2,823 3,024.9
Interest on Debt2 10,082 10,341 10,572 10,794.1
Other Expense1 7,054 4,863 6,012 6,085.2
Program Review Savings Target (250.0)
Year-End Savings3 (1,100.0)
Total Expense 122,742 122,589 126,364 130,168.4
1 Details on other ministry expense can be found in Table 3.9, Details of Other Expense.
2 Interest on debt is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $234 million in 2011–12, $232 million in 2012–13, $134 million in 2013–14 and $336 million in 2014–15.
3 As in past years, the Year-End Savings provision reflects anticipated underspending that has historically arisen at year-end due to factors such as program efficiencies, and changes in project startups and implementation plans.
Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
The impact of recently announced ministry restructuring will be reflected in future updates.

TABLE 3.9 Details of Other Expense
($ Millions)
Ministry Expense 2011–12 2012–13 Actual
2013–14
Current Outlook
2014–15
Aboriginal Affairs        
One-Time Investments — Settlements 28 12
Agriculture and Food / Rural Affairs        
Time-Limited Investments in Infrastructure 247 19 132 47.1
Time-Limited Assistance 17 6.5
Community Safety and Correctional Services        
Time-Limited Support for 2015 Pan/Parapan American
Games Security
1 1 6 44.9
Economic Development, Trade and Employment / Research and Innovation        
Time-Limited Investments for Youth 50 50.0
Education        
Teachers' Pension Plan1 523 895 873 507.0
One-Time Savings — Labour Savings (1,296)
Energy        
Ontario Clean Energy Benefit 1,033 994 1,006 1,100.0
Environment        
Time-Limited Investments 78
Finance        
Harmonized Sales Tax Transitional Support 1,440.0
Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund 598 592 569 541.5
Operating Contingency Fund 397.0
Power Supply Contract Costs 1,375 1,323 1,296 959.1
Transition Fund 80.0
Government Services        
Pension and Other Employee Future Benefits 1,300 1,519 1,265 1,170.0
Infrastructure        
Federal-Provincial Infrastructure Programs 241.7
Capital Contingency Fund 100.0
Municipal Affairs and Housing        
Time-Limited Investments in Municipal Social and
Affordable Housing
59 158 155 155.2
Time-Limited Investments 9 42 208
Natural Resources        
Emergency Forest Firefighting 209 180 92 85.1
Tourism, Culture and Sport        
Time-Limited Investments — Sport Program 37
One-Time Investments 3
Time-Limited Investments to Support 2015 Pan/
Parapan American Games
59 358 332 600.1
Training, Colleges and Universities        
Time-Limited Investments 133
Total Other Expense 7,054 4,863 6,012 6,085.2
1 Numbers reflect Public Sector Accounting Board pension expense. Ontario's matching contributions to the plan grow from $1,344 million in 2011–12 to $1,532 million in 2014–15.
Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
The impact of recently announced ministry restructuring will be reflected in future updates.

TABLE 3.10 2014–15 Infrastructure Expenditures
($ Millions)
Sector Total Infrastructure
Expenditures
2013–14
Actual
2014–15 Current Outlook
Investment
in Capital
Assets1
Transfers and Other
Infrastructure
Expenditures2
Total Infrastructure
Expenditures
Transportation        
Transit 2,489 2,630 519 3,150
Provincial Highways 1,792 2,472 2,472
Other Transportation3 580 750 95 845
Health        
Hospitals 2,903 3,341 287 3,629
Other Health 317 206 203 409
Education 1,735 1,724 58 1,781
Postsecondary        
Colleges 353 368 368
Universities 155 168 168
Water/Environment 134 57 96 153
Municipal and Local Infrastructure 673 8 643 651
Justice 302 129 125 254
Other 353 481 132 613
Subtotal 11,786 12,167 2,326 14,493
Less: Other Partner Funding4 1,827 1,666 1,666
Total Excluding Partner Funding 9,960 10,500 2,326 12,826
Less: Other Capital Contributions5 319 284 262 546
Total Provincial Expenditure6 9,641 10,216 2,064 12,280
1 Investment in Capital Assets includes interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $336 million.
2 Mainly consists of transfers for capital purposes to municipalities and universities, and expenditures for capital repairs.
3 Other Transportation includes highway planning activities, property acquisition, highway service centres and other infrastructure programs (e.g., winter roads, remote airports).
4 Third-party contributions to capital investment in consolidated schools, colleges, hospitals and provincial agencies.
5 Mostly federal government transfers for capital investments.
6 Total Provincial Infrastructure Expenditure includes Investment in Capital Assets of $7.9 billion for 2013–14.
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

TABLE 3.11 Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics1
($ Millions)
  2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–102
Revenue 90,738 97,120 104,115 97,532 96,313
Expense          
Programs 81,421 86,020 94,601 95,375 106,856
Interest on Debt3 9,019 8,831 8,914 8,566 8,719
Total Expense 90,440 94,851 103,515 103,941 115,575
Surplus/(Deficit) Before Reserve 298 2,269 600 (6,409) (19,262)
Reserve
Surplus/(Deficit) 298 2,269 600 (6,409) (19,262)
Net Debt4 152,702 153,742 156,616 169,585 193,589
Accumulated Deficit 109,155 106,776 105,617 113,238 130,957
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Market Prices 552,769 574,292 597,803 604,282 595,433
Primary Household Income 363,479 382,688 401,978 413,032 413,152
Population — July (000s) 12,528 12,662 12,764 12,883 12,998
Net Debt per Capita (dollars) 12,189 12,142 12,270 13,164 14,894
Household Income per Capita (dollars) 29,013 30,224 31,493 32,061 31,787
Interest on Debt as a per cent of Revenue 9.9 9.1 8.6 8.8 9.1
Net Debt as a per cent of GDP 27.6 26.8 26.2 28.1 32.5
Accumulated Deficit as a per cent of GDP 19.7 18.6 17.7 18.7 22.0
1 Revenue and expense have been restated to reflect a fiscally neutral accounting change for the revised presentation of education property taxes, as described in the 2010 Ontario Budget; a fiscally neutral accounting change related to the reclassification of government agencies and organizations as described in the 2011 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review; and a fiscally neutral reclassification of a number of tax measures that are transfers or grants, as described in the 2012 Ontario Budget.
2 Starting in 2009–10, investments in minor tangible capital assets owned by the Province were capitalized and amortized to expense. All capital assets owned by consolidated organizations are being accounted for in a similar manner.
3 Interest on debt is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $234 million in 2011–12, $232 million in 2012–13, $134 million in 2013–14 and $336 million in 2014–15.
4 Starting in 2009–10, Net Debt includes the net debt of hospitals, school boards and colleges, consistent with Public Sector Accounting Board standards. For comparative purposes, Net Debt has been restated from 2005–06 to 2008–09 to conform with this revised presentation. Net Debt has also been restated in 2005–06 to reflect the value of hydro corridor lands transferred to the Province from Hydro One Inc.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

TABLE 3.11 Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics1
($ Millions)
  2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 Actual
2013–14
Current Outlook 2014–15
Revenue 107,175 109,773 113,369 115,911 118,362
Expense          
Programs 111,706 112,660 112,248 115,792 119,374
Interest on Debt3 9,480 10,082 10,341 10,572 10,794
Total Expense 121,186 122,742 122,589 126,364 130,168
Surplus/(Deficit) Before Reserve (14,011) (12,969) (9,220) (10,453) (11,807)
Reserve 700
Surplus/(Deficit) (14,011) (12,969) (9,220) (10,453) (12,507)
Net Debt4 214,511 235,582 252,088 267,190 287,288
Accumulated Deficit 144,573 158,410 167,132 176,634 189,141
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Market Prices 629,500 658,635 679,616 695,705 720,055
Primary Household Income 425,140 444,343 460,133 473,702 491,229
Population — July (000s) 13,135 13,264 13,410 13,551 13,679
Net Debt per Capita (dollars) 16,331 17,762 18,798 19,717 21,003
Household Income per Capita (dollars) 32,367 33,501 34,312 34,957 35,912
Interest on Debt as a per cent of Revenue 8.8 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.1
Net Debt as a per cent of GDP 34.1 35.8 37.1 38.4 39.9
Accumulated Deficit as a per cent of GDP 23.0 24.1 24.6 25.4 26.3
1 Revenue and expense have been restated to reflect a fiscally neutral accounting change for the revised presentation of education property taxes, as described in the 2010 Ontario Budget; a fiscally neutral accounting change related to the reclassification of government agencies and organizations as described in the 2011 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review; and a fiscally neutral reclassification of a number of tax measures that are transfers or grants, as described in the 2012 Ontario Budget.
2 Starting in 2009–10, investments in minor tangible capital assets owned by the Province were capitalized and amortized to expense. All capital assets owned by consolidated organizations are being accounted for in a similar manner.
3 Interest on debt is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $234 million in 2011–12, $232 million in 2012–13, $134 million in 2013–14 and $336 million in 2014–15.
4 Starting in 2009–10, Net Debt includes the net debt of hospitals, school boards and colleges, consistent with Public Sector Accounting Board standards. For comparative purposes, Net Debt has been restated from 2005–06 to 2008–09 to conform with this revised presentation. Net Debt has also been restated in 2005–06 to reflect the value of hydro corridor lands transferred to the Province from Hydro One Inc.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Chart 3.2: Composition of Total Revenue, 2014–15

This chart shows the share of total revenue outlook in 2014–15 and dollar amounts by major revenue category.

The largest taxation revenue source is Personal Income Tax revenue at $29.1 billion, accounting for 24.6 per cent of total revenue. This is followed by Sales Tax at $21.9 billion, or 18.5 per cent of total revenue, and Corporations Tax at $9.9 billion, or 8.3 per cent of total revenue. Total tax revenue accounts for $82.8 billion, or 70.0 per cent of total revenue. The other major non‐taxation sources of revenue are Federal Transfers of $21.9 billion, or 18.5 per cent of total revenue, Income from Government Business Enterprises at $5.0 billion or 4.2 per cent of total revenue, and various Other Non‐Tax Revenues at $8.6 billion or 7.3 per cent of total revenue.

Return to Chart 3.2

Chart 3.3: Composition of Total Expense, 2014–15

This chart shows the share of total expense outlook in 2014–15 and dollar amounts by sector.

The largest expense is the Health Sector at $50.1 billion, accounting for 38.5 per cent of total expense. The remaining sectors of total expense include the Education Sector at $24.8 billion or 19.1 per cent; the Postsecondary and Training Sector at $7.8 billion or 6.0 per cent; the Children’s and Social Services Sector at $15.0 billion or 11.5 per cent; the Justice Sector at $4.3 billion or 3.3 per cent; and Other Programs at $17.4 billion or 13.3 per cent. Interest on Debt, included as part of Total Expense, is $10.8 billion or 8.3 per cent.

Note that the Education Sector excludes the Teachers’ Pension Plan. Teachers’ Pension Plan expense is included in Other Programs.

Return to Chart 3.3

Chart 3.4: Composition of Program Expense, 2014–15

This chart shows the share of program expense outlooks in 2014–15 and dollar amounts by sector. Program expense equals total expense minus interest on debt expense.

The largest expense is the Health Sector at $50.1 billion, accounting for 41.9 per cent of total program expense. The remaining sectors of program expense include the Education Sector at $24.8 billion or 20.8 per cent; the Postsecondary and Training Sector at $7.8 billion or 6.6 per cent; the Children’s and Social Services Sector at $15.0 billion or 12.6 per cent; the Justice Sector at $4.3 billion or 3.6 per cent; and Other Programs at $17.4 billion or 14.5 per cent.

Note that the Education Sector excludes Teachers’ Pension Plan. Teachers’ Pension Plan expense is included in Other Programs.

Return to Chart 3.4