2015 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review
Chapter III: Economic and Fiscal Outlook

Section B: Fiscal Outlook

The government is currently projecting deficits of $7.5 billion in 2015–16 and $4.5 billion in 2016–17, and a return to balance in 2017–18. This reflects an improvement of $1.0 billion in 2015–16 and $0.3 billion in 2016–17 compared with the deficit targets laid out in the 2015 Budget.

Average annual growth in revenue between 2014–15 and 2017–18 is projected to be 4.5 per cent, slightly above the growth projected in the 2015 Budget.

Average annual growth in program spending between 2014–15 and 2017–18 is forecasted to be 0.9 per cent, in line with the 2015 Budget.

Interest on debt expense is currently forecasted to be below the 2015 Budget estimate. As a result, total expense is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.3 per cent over the 2014–15 to 2017–18 period.

The reserve is unchanged from the 2015 Budget, remaining in place to protect against adverse changes in the Province’s revenue and expense.

TABLE 3.7 Ontario's Medium-Term Fiscal Plan and Outlook ($ Billions)
  Actual
2014–15
Current Outlook
2015–16
Medium-Term Outlook
2016–17 2017–18
Revenue 118.5 125.6 129.5 135.3
Expense        
Programs 118.2 120.9 120.6 121.3
Interest on Debt 10.6 11.3 12.2 12.9
Total Expense 128.9 132.2 132.8 134.1
Reserve 1.0 1.2 1.2
Surplus/(Deficit) (10.3) (7.5) (4.5)
Net Debt as a per cent of GDP 39.4 40.2 40.2 39.4
Accumulated Deficit as a per cent of GDP 26.0 26.3 25.8 24.7
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

2015–16 Fiscal Update

The Province’s total revenue projection for 2015–16 of $125.6 billion is $1.2 billion higher than the 2015 Budget forecast. This increase largely reflects the government’s progress on its asset optimization strategy related to the recent Hydro One initial public offering (IPO) (discussed in Chapter I, Section C: Building Tomorrow’s Infrastructure and Asset Optimization). It also reflects slightly higher taxation revenues.

The 2015–16 program expense outlook is $0.4 billion higher than the projection in the 2015 Budget. This is mainly the result of the government’s proposal to invest $325 million in 2015–16 through a Green Investment Fund that will be targeted at reducing GHG emissions while strengthening the economy.

Interest on debt expense for 2015–16 is projected to be $0.1 billion below the 2015 Budget estimate, primarily due to lower-than-forecasted interest rates.

The total expense outlook for 2015–16 is projected to be $0.3 billion higher than forecasted in the 2015 Budget.

The 2015–16 outlook maintains a $1.0 billion reserve to protect the fiscal plan against any adverse changes in the Province’s revenue and expense.

TABLE 3.8 2015–16 In-Year Fiscal Update
($ Millions)
  Budget Plan Current Outlook In-Year Change
Revenue 124,390 125,635 1,245
Expense      
Programs 120,492 120,889 397
Interest on Debt 11,410 11,270 (140.0)
Total Expense 131,902 132,159 257
Reserve 1,000 1,000
Surplus/(Deficit) (8,512.0) (7,524.0) 988
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

2015–16 Revenue Changes since the 2015 Budget

The Province’s total revenue projection for 2015–16 of $125.6 billion is $1.2 billion higher than the 2015 Budget forecast.

TABLE 3.9 Summary of Revenue Changes since the 2015 Budget
($ Millions)
  2015–16
Taxation Changes  
Personal Income Tax 400
Land Transfer Tax 203
Ontario Health Premium 40
Employer Health Tax (24)
Corporations Tax (190)
Sales Tax (274)
Total Taxation Changes 155
Other Non-Tax Revenue Changes 1,090
Total Revenue Changes since the 2015 Budget 1,245
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Details of 2015–16 In-Year Revenue Changes

Key changes to revenue projections since the 2015 Budget include the following:

  • Personal Income Tax (PIT) revenue is up $400 million. This is due to higher 2014 revenue based on 2014 tax returns processed since the 2015 Budget.  Personal Income Tax is also boosted by a one-time adjustment related to prior years. This is partially offset by slower projected growth in wages and salaries in 2015.
  • Land Transfer Tax revenue is $203 million higher, reflecting a stronger Ontario housing market.
  • Ontario Health Premium revenue is projected to be up $40 million, as a result of higher 2014 tax revenue based on tax returns processed since the 2015 Budget and a one-time prior-year adjustment. This is partially offset by slower projected growth in wages and salaries in 2015.
  • Employer Health Tax revenue is $24 million lower, reflecting slightly slower projected growth in wages and salaries in 2015.
  • Corporations Tax revenue is $190 million lower, mainly due to slower profit growth in 2015 and weaker 2014 tax assessments. This is partially offset by having reported the expected weakness in 2014 taxes assessed in the Public Accounts of Ontario 2014–2015, eliminating the negative prior-year adjustment to 2015–16 revenues assumed in the 2015 Budget forecast.
  • Sales Tax revenue is $274 million lower, based on estimates provided by the federal government, which included slower 2015 economic growth and higher housing rebates.
  • Other Non-Tax Revenue is projected to be $1,090 million higher, reflecting higher projected net revenue from the government’s progress on its asset optimization strategy related to the recent Hydro One IPO. See Chapter I, Section C: Building Tomorrow’s Infrastructure and Asset Optimization for more details.

2015–16 Expense Changes since the 2015 Budget

The 2015–16 total expense outlook, at $132.2 billion, is $0.3 billion higher than the projection in the 2015 Budget.

TABLE 3.10 Summary of Expense Changes since the 2015 Budget
($ Millions)
  2015–16
Program Expense Changes with Offsets from the Contingency Funds  
Emergency Forest Firefighting 29.6
Settlements 4.5
Refugee Crisis Support 3.8
Contingency Funds (37.9)
Net Program Expense Changes with Offsets from the Contingency Funds
   
Other Program Expense Changes  
Green Investment Fund 325.0
Strategic Asset Management and Transformation Related to Hydro One IPO 63.0
Legislative Offices 9.3
Other Program Expense 0.0
Total Other Program Expense Changes 397.4
Net Changes in Program Expense Reported in First Quarter Ontario Finances
Interest on Debt (140.0)
Total Expense Changes since the 2015 Budget 257.4
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Details of 2015–16 In-Year Expense Changes

The following expense changes have occurred since the 2015–16 First Quarter Ontario Finances.

Key changes to expense projections with offsets from the Contingency Funds include:

  • An increase of $29.6 million to support emergency forest firefighting activities until the end of the 2015 fire season;
  • An increase of $4.5 million to support a land claim settlement with Windy Point First Nation and a settlement to address a historical flooding claim with Rainy River First Nation; and
  • An increase of $3.8 million to support the arrival and settlement of refugees and international relief efforts.

Other key changes to expense projections include:

  • A proposed investment of $325.0 million through a Green Investment Fund that will be targeted at reducing GHG emissions while strengthening the economy;
  • An increase of $63.0 million for strategic asset management and transformation related to the Hydro One IPO;
  • An increase of $9.3 million for Legislative Offices such as the Auditor General and the Ontario Ombudsman;
  • An increase of $35,000 in the Office of Francophone Affairs, fully offset by increased federal revenue, to support the 2015 Ministerial Conference on the Canadian Francophonie, which was held in Toronto in June 2015; and
  • Interest on debt expense that is $140.0 million lower than projected in the 2015 Budget, primarily as a result of lower-than-forecasted interest rates.

Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook

Medium-Term Revenue Outlook

The medium-term revenue outlook reflects current revenue information and projections for the Ontario economy as outlined in Section A: Ontario’s Economic Outlook of this chapter, as well as the estimated impact of past government policy measures. Revenue is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.5 per cent between 2014–15 and 2017–18.

Key information still to be received over the remainder of the fiscal year could have a significant impact on the medium-term revenue outlook.

TABLE 3.11 Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Outlook
($ Billions)
  Current
Outlook
2015–16
Medium-Term Outlook
2016–17 2017–18
Revenue      
Taxation Revenue 87.6 91.5 95.3
Government of Canada 22.9 24.0 24.8
Income from Government Business Enterprises 4.8 5.2 5.5
Other Non-Tax Revenue 10.4 8.8 9.7
2015 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review 125.6 129.5 135.3
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

The medium-term Taxation Revenue outlook reflects current revenue information and projections for the Ontario economy. Taxation revenue is projected to grow by $13.0 billion between 2014–15 and 2017–18, or at an average annual rate of 5.0 per cent, which is consistent with average annual nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.8 per cent after accounting for prior-year adjustments in 2014–15.

The forecast for Government of Canada transfers is based on existing federal–provincial funding agreements. Government of Canada transfers are unchanged from the 2015 Budget outlook. Overall transfers are projected to grow in the medium term, largely reflecting projected increases in major ongoing Government of Canada transfers.

The outlook for Income from Government Business Enterprises (GBEs) is based on projections provided by the individual enterprises. The forecast for income from GBEs is unchanged from the 2015 Budget outlook. Revenues from the GBEs are projected to increase over the medium term, reflecting higher net income overall from the business enterprises.

The forecast for Other Non-Tax Revenue is based on projections provided by government ministries and provincial agencies. It reflects the net impact of the government’s asset optimization strategy, which boosts revenues in 2015–16. It also includes a preliminary estimate of the revenues that are expected to arise from the auctioning of cap-and-trade allowances beginning in 2017, which would potentially increase 2016–17 and 2017–18 revenues. See Chapter I, Section C: Building Tomorrow’s Infrastructure and Asset Optimization and Section G: Tackling Climate Change for more details.

Medium-Term Revenue Changes since the 2015 Budget

TABLE 3.12 Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Changes since the 2015 Budget
($ Billions)
  Current
Outlook
2015–16
Medium-Term Outlook
2016–17 2017–18
2015 Budget Total Revenue 124.4 129.4 134.4
Source of Change      
Tax Revenue Base 0.0 0.1 0.1
One-Time Revenue Changes 0.6 0.0 0.0
Slower Economic Growth (0.5) (0.3) (0.4)
Increased Revenues from Asset Optimization 1.1
Preliminary Projected Cap-and-Trade Proceeds 0.3 1.3
Total Changes since the 2015 Budget 1.2 0.1 1.0
2015 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review Total Revenue 125.6 129.5 135.3
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

The 2014 tax revenue base increases slightly over the medium term. Processing of 2014 PIT returns raises the tax revenue base, but is partially offset by weaker projected 2014 Corporations Tax (CT) revenues.

One-time revenue changes in 2015–16 largely reflect net impacts of prior-year adjustments related to PIT and CT. This includes a positive adjustment to CT revenue in 2015–16, as a result of having reported the expected weakness in 2014 taxes assessed in the Public Accounts of Ontario 2014–2015, thereby eliminating a negative prior-year adjustment to 2015–16 revenues assumed in the 2015 Budget forecast.

Slower economic growth in 2015 lowers the revenue forecast over the medium term. The revenue decrease is not as large as might be suggested by the nominal GDP rule of thumb (see page 273 of the 2015 Budget) due to favourable compositional factors.

The government’s progress on its asset optimization strategy boosts revenues in 2015–16.

The revenue outlook also includes revenues that are expected to arise from the auctioning of cap-and-trade allowances beginning in 2017. There is a range of estimates for potential proceeds that could be generated from the proposed cap-and-trade program for greenhouse gases. A preliminary estimate is $1.3 billion in 2017–18, and includes a partial fiscal impact in 2016–17. The preliminary estimate is based on a cap-and-trade program design that is currently being discussed with stakeholders. The actual proceeds generated will depend on the final design adopted by regulation.

Medium-Term Expense Outlook

The program expense outlook over the medium term is higher than forecasted in the 2015 Budget, as the fiscal plan has been updated to reflect the government’s commitment to ensure that all proceeds from a cap-and-trade program would be dedicated to actions that reduce GHG emissions. See Chapter I, Section G: Tackling Climate Change for more information.

In line with the 2015 Budget, program expense growth will be held to an average annual rate of 0.9 per cent between 2014–15 and 2017–18, below the 1.4 per cent average annual growth rate in program spending over the last four years. See Chapter II: A Balanced Path to a Balanced Budget for details.

Interest on debt expense is projected to be $0.2 billion lower in 2016–17 and $0.3 billion lower in 2017–18 compared with the forecast laid out in the 2015 Budget, primarily as a result of lower-than-forecasted interest rates.

Total expense is projected to grow to $134.1 billion by 2017–18, above the forecast included in the 2015 Budget.

Fiscal Prudence

As required by the Fiscal Transparency and Accountability Act, 2004, Ontario’s fiscal plan incorporates prudence in the form of a reserve to protect the fiscal outlook against adverse changes in the Province’s revenue and expense. The reserve remains unchanged from the 2015 Budget, set at $1.2 billion in each of 2016–17 and 2017–18.

The fiscal plan also includes contingency funds (both operating and capital) to help mitigate expense risks — particularly in cases where health and safety may be compromised or services to the most vulnerable are jeopardized — that may otherwise adversely affect Ontario’s fiscal performance.

Details of Ontario’s Finances

The following tables and charts provide information on the Province’s historical financial performance, key fiscal indicators, and details of Ontario’s fiscal plan and outlook.

TABLE 3.13 Revenue
($ Millions)
  2012–13 2013–14 Actual
2014–15
Current
Outlook
2015–16
Taxation Revenue        
Personal Income Tax 25,574 26,929 29,313 30,777
Sales Tax1 20,957 20,481 21,689 22,708
Corporations Tax 12,093 11,423 9,557 11,152
Education Property Tax2 5,511 5,457 5,561 5,715
Employer Health Tax 5,137 5,283 5,415 5,656
Ontario Health Premium 3,067 3,128 3,366 3,498
Gasoline Tax 2,390 2,363 2,447 2,457
Land Transfer Tax 1,484 1,614 1,778 1,985
Tobacco Tax 1,142 1,110 1,163 1,262
Fuel Tax 710 718 739 752
Beer and Wine Tax 560 557 560 575
Electricity Payments-In-Lieu of Taxes 324 543 180 524
Other Taxes 469 360 507 491
Total 79,418 79,966 82,275 87,552
Government of Canada        
Canada Health Transfer 11,315 11,940 12,408 13,065
Canada Social Transfer 4,591 4,689 4,847 4,976
Equalization 3,261 3,169 1,988 2,363
Infrastructure Programs 116 123 137 308
Labour Market Programs 897 909 896 914
Social Housing 483 474 465 448
Wait Times Reduction Fund 97 96
Other Federal Payments 901 877 874 816
Total 21,661 22,277 21,615 22,890
Government Business Enterprises        
Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation 1,816 2,009 1,995 1,920
Liquor Control Board of Ontario 1,721 1,723 1,831 1,880
Ontario Power Generation Inc./Hydro One Inc. 932 1,605 1,789 1,012
Total 4,469 5,337 5,615 4,812
Other Non-Tax Revenue        
Reimbursements 932 962 985 980
Vehicle and Driver Registration Fees 1,125 1,248 1,433 1,592
Electricity Debt Retirement Charge 939 954 956 865
Power Supply Contract Recoveries 1,323 1,296 950 793
Sales and Rentals 1,188 1,160 2,336 3,893
Other Fees and Licences 760 759 693 979
Net Reduction of Power Purchase Contract Liability 263 243 217 172
Royalties 226 242 275 262
Miscellaneous Other Non-Tax Revenue3 1,065 1,467 1,196 845
Total 7,821 8,331 9,041 10,381
Total Revenue 113,369 115,911 118,546 125,635
1 Sales Tax revenue is net of the Ontario Sales Tax Credit and the energy component of the Ontario Energy and Property Tax Credit.
2 Education Property Tax revenue is net of the property tax credit component of the Ontario Energy and Property Tax Credit and the Ontario Senior Homeowners' Property Tax Grant.
3 Relatively high Miscellaneous Other Non-Tax Revenue in 2013–14 reflects the gain on the sale of the Province's shares of General Motors Company and higher recoveries of prior-year expenditures.
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
TABLE 3.14 Total Expense
($ Millions)
Ministry Expense 2012–13 2013–14 Actual
2014–15
Current
Outlook
2015–16
Aboriginal Affairs1 65 63 67 75.6
Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs1 1,016 864 900 1,028.8
Attorney General 1,683 1,813 1,783 1,779.8
Board of Internal Economy2 197 199 264 219.9
Children and Youth Services 3,911 3,997 4,132 4,314.1
Citizenship, Immigration and International Trade 161 152 157 164.4
Community and Social Services 9,696 9,977 10,551 11,114.9
Community Safety and Correctional Services1 2,309 2,380 2,524 2,466.6
Economic Development, Employment and Infrastructure / Research and Innovation1 998 992 1,076 1,205.9
Education1 23,142 23,645 24,630 25,231.5
Energy1 340 311 326 322.9
Environment and Climate Change1 485 480 486 503.3
Executive Offices 30 30 43 36.8
Finance1 806 845 857 860.0
Francophone Affairs, Office of 5 5 5 8.5
Government and Consumer Services 596 594 573 601.9
Health and Long-Term Care 47,594 48,933 50,039 50,770.9
Labour 281 303 305 310.5
Municipal Affairs and Housing1 830 845 889 920.0
Natural Resources and Forestry1 694 720 713 720.2
Northern Development and Mines 718 719 804 756.7
Tourism, Culture and Sport1 1,424 1,337 1,246 1,292.2
Training, Colleges and Universities 7,337 7,572 7,660 7,809.7
Transportation 2,478 2,823 2,944 3,456.9
Treasury Board Secretariat1 588 232 307 487.3
Interest on Debt3 10,341 10,572 10,635 11,270.1
Other Expense1 4,863 5,962 4,944 5,920.0
Program Review Savings Target (490.0)
Year-End Savings4 (1,000.0)
Total Expense 122,589 126,364 128,860 132,159.4
1 Details on other ministry expense can be found in Table 3.15, Details of Other Expense.
2 The 2014–15 amount includes expenses for the 2014 general election.
3 Interest on debt is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $232 million in 2012–13, $134 million in 2013–14, $202 million in 2014–15 and $170 million in 2015–16.
4 As in past years, the Year-End Savings provision reflects anticipated underspending that has historically arisen at year-end due to factors such as program efficiencies, and changes in project startups and implementation plans.
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
TABLE 3.15 Details of Other Expense
($ Millions)
Ministry Expense 2012–13 2013–14 Actual
2014–15
Current
Outlook
2015–16
Aboriginal Affairs        
One-Time Investments including Settlements 12 3 4.5
Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs        
Time-Limited Investments in Infrastructure 19 132 36 12.5
Time-Limited Assistance 17 7
Community Safety and Correctional Services        
Time-Limited Support for 2015 Pan/Parapan American Games Security 1 5 44 182.7
Economic Development, Employment and Infrastructure / Research and Innovation        
Federal–Provincial Infrastructure Programs 235.2
Education        
Teachers' Pension Plan1 895 873 564 71.0
One-Time Savings — Labour Savings (1,296)
Energy        
Ontario Clean Energy Benefit 994 1,006 1,078 860.0
Strategic Asset Management and Transformation Related to Hydro One IPO 63.0
Environment and Climate Change        
Time-Limited Investments 78
Finance        
Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund 592 569 542 512.5
Power Supply Contract Costs 1,323 1,296 920 793.0
Green Investment Fund 325.0
Municipal Affairs and Housing        
Time-Limited Investments in Municipal Social and Affordable Housing 158 155 153 160.3
Time-Limited Investments 42 208 7
Natural Resources and Forestry        
Emergency Forest Firefighting 180 92 79 99.4
Tourism, Culture and Sport        
Time-Limited Investments to Support 2015 Pan/Parapan American Games 358 332 405 899.9
Treasury Board Secretariat        
Operating Contingency Fund 511.1
Capital Contingency Fund 100.0
Pension and Other Employee Future Benefits 1,519 1,265 1,106 1,090.0
Total Other Expense 4,863 5,962 4,944 5,920.0
1 Numbers reflect Public Sector Accounting Board pension expense. Ontario's matching contributions to the plan grow from $1,395 million in 2012–13 to $1,593 million in 2015–16.
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
TABLE 3.16 2015–16 Infrastructure Expenditures
($ Millions)
Sector Total
Infrastructure
Expenditures
2014–15 Actual1
2015–16 Current Outlook
Investment
in Capital
Assets2,3(i)
Transfers
and Other
Infrastructure
Expenditures4
Total
Infrastructure
Expenditures3(ii)
Transportation        
Transit 2,775 2,659 546 3,205
Provincial Highways 2,323 2,466 2,466
Other Transportation, Property and Planning 779 751 120 871
Health        
Hospitals 3,386 2,425 243 2,668
Other Health 182 70 206 276
Education 1,833 1,885 57 1,941
Postsecondary        
Colleges & Other 351 347 15 362
Universities 168 214 214
Social 231 27 315 342
Justice 144 91 152 243
Other Sectors5 645 418 861 1,279
Subtotal 12,817 11,138 2,728 13,866
Less: Federal and Municipal Contributions 102 75 255 330
Total 12,715 11,063 2,473 13,536
1 Includes investment in capital assets of $11.1 billion.
2 Includes $170 million in interest capitalized during construction.
3 Includes approximately $2 billion in third-party investments in hospitals, colleges and schools. Excluding this amount: (i) provincially funded investment in capital assets is approximately $9.1 billion; and (ii) total infrastructure expenditure is approximately $11.9 billion.
4 Includes transfers to municipalities, universities and non-consolidated agencies.
5 Includes government administration, natural resources, culture and tourism sectors.
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
TABLE 3.17 Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics1
($ Millions)
  2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–102 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 Actual
2014–15
Current
Outlook
2015–16
Revenue 97,120 104,115 97,532 96,313 107,175 109,773 113,369 115,911 118,546 125,635
Expense                    
Programs 86,020 94,601 95,375 106,856 111,706 112,660 112,248 115,792 118,225 120,889
Interest on Debt3 8,831 8,914 8,566 8,719 9,480 10,082 10,341 10,572 10,635 11,270
Total Expense 94,851 103,515 103,941 115,575 121,186 122,742 122,589 126,364 128,860 132,159
Reserve 1,000
Surplus/(Deficit) 2,269 600 (6,409) (19,262) (14,011) (12,969) (9,220) (10,453) (10,314) (7,524)
Net Debt4 153,742 156,616 169,585 193,589 214,511 235,582 252,088 267,190 284,576 298,315
Accumulated Deficit 106,776 105,617 113,238 130,957 144,573 158,410 167,132 176,634 187,511 195,035
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Market Prices 578,214 601,735 608,446 597,882 630,989 659,743 680,084 693,210 721,970 742,825
Primary Household Income 381,890 403,408 414,724 412,847 424,251 444,076 459,111 473,905 490,412 508,917
Population — July (000s) 12,662 12,764 12,883 12,998 13,135 13,264 13,410 13,551 13,678 13,792
Net Debt per Capita (dollars) 12,142 12,270 13,164 14,894 16,331 17,762 18,798 19,717 20,806 21,630
Household Income per Capita (dollars) 30,161 31,605 32,193 31,763 32,299 33,481 34,236 34,972 35,855 36,899
Interest on Debt as a per cent of Revenue 9.1 8.6 8.8 9.1 8.8 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.0
Net Debt as a per cent of GDP 26.6 26.0 27.9 32.4 34.0 35.7 37.1 38.5 39.4 40.2
Accumulated Deficit as a per cent of GDP 18.5 17.6 18.6 21.9 22.9 24.0 24.6 25.5 26.0 26.3
1 Revenue and expense have been restated to reflect a fiscally neutral accounting change for the revised presentation of education property taxes, as described in the 2010 Ontario Budget; a fiscally neutral accounting change related to the reclassification of government agencies and organizations as described in the 2011 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review; and a fiscally neutral reclassification of a number of tax measures that are transfers or grants, as described in the 2012 Ontario Budget.
2 Starting in 2009–10, investments in minor tangible capital assets owned by the Province were capitalized and amortized to expense. All capital assets owned by consolidated organizations are being accounted for in a similar manner.
3 Interest on debt is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $232 million in 2012–13, $134 million in 2013–14, $202 million in 2014–15 and $170 million in 2015–16.
4 Starting in 2009–10, Net Debt includes the net debt of hospitals, school boards and colleges, consistent with Public Sector Accounting Board standards. For comparative purposes, Net Debt has been restated from 2006–07 to 2008–09 to conform with this revised presentation.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance.

Chart 3.3: Composition of Total Revenue, 2015–16

This pie chart shows the share of total revenue and dollar amounts by major revenue category in 2015–16. Total revenue in 2015–16 is projected to be $125.6 billion.

The largest taxation revenue source is Personal Income Tax revenue at $30.8 billion, accounting for 24.5 per cent of total revenue.This is followed by Sales Tax at $22.7 billion, or 18.1 per cent of total revenue, and Corporations Tax at $11.2 billion, or 8.9 per cent of total revenue. Total tax revenue accounts for $87.6 billion, or 69.7 per cent of total revenue. The other major non-taxation sources of revenue are Federal Transfers of $22.9 billion, or 18.2 per cent of total revenue, Income from Government Business Enterprises at $4.8 billion, or 3.8 per cent of total revenue, and various Other Non-Tax Revenue at $10.4 billion, or 8.3 per cent of total revenue.

Return to Chart 3.3

Chart 3.4: Composition of Total Expense, 2015–16

This pie chart shows the share of total expense and dollar amounts by sector in 2015–16. Total expense in 2015–16 is projected to be $132.2 billion.

The largest expense is the Health Sector at $50.8 billion, accounting for 38.4 per cent of total expense.

The remaining sectors of total expense include the Education Sector at $25.2 billion, or 19.1 per cent; Postsecondary and Training Sector at $7.8 billion, or 5.9 per cent; Children’s and Social Services Sector at $15.4 billion, or 11.7 per cent; Justice Sector at $4.4 billion, or 3.4 per cent; and Other Programs at $17.2 billion, or 13.0 per cent. Interest on Debt, included as part of Total Expense, is $11.3 billion, or 8.5 per cent.

Note that the Education Sector excludes the Teachers’ Pension Plan. Teachers’ Pension Plan expense is included in Other Programs.

Return to Chart 3.4