Fiscal Outlook

The government is projecting a balanced budget in 2017–18 and continued balance in 2018–19 and 2019–20, unchanged from the 2017 Budget forecast.

TABLE 3.7 Ontario’s Fiscal Outlook1
($ Billions)

Item Actual
2016–17
Current Outlook 2017–18 Medium-Term Outlook
2018–19
Medium-Term Outlook
2019–20
Revenue - Taxation Revenue 94.3 99.9 105.1 110.0
Revenue - Government of Canada 24.5 26.2 26.0 25.4
Revenue - Income from Government Business Enterprises 5.6 5.1 5.9 6.2
Revenue - Other Non-Tax Revenue 16.3 19.0 16.5 16.6
Total Revenue 140.7 150.1 153.6 158.2
Expense - Programs 130.0 137.4 140.4 144.2
Expense - Interest on Debt 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.3
Total Expense 141.7 149.6 153.1 157.4
Surplus/(Deficit) Before Reserve (1.0) 0.5 0.5 0.8
Reserve 0.5 0.5 0.8
Surplus/(Deficit) (1.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Debt as a Per Cent of GDP 38.0 37.3 37.1 37.0
Accumulated Deficit as a Per Cent of GDP 24.3 23.1 22.2 21.3

Table 3.7 Footnotes:

[1] Amounts reflect a presentation change for hospitals, school boards and colleges. Third-party revenue for these organizations, previously netted against sector expenses, is now classified as revenue. This does not impact the Province’s annual surplus/deficit results, net debt or accumulated deficit. Please see the Improved Transparency in Financial Reporting section later in this chapter for further information.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Revenue

Revenues are projected to grow from $140.7 billion in 2016–17 to $158.2 billion in 2019–20. This represents an average annual growth rate of 4.0 per cent.

The medium-term Taxation Revenue outlook reflects current revenue information and projections for the Ontario economy. Taxation revenue is projected to increase by $15.6 billion between 2016–17 and 2019–20, or at an average annual rate of 5.2 per cent.

The forecast for Government of Canada transfers is based on existing federal–provincial funding agreements. Overall transfers are projected to grow by $0.9 billion between 2016–17 and 2019–20, or at an average annual rate of 1.2 per cent, largely reflecting projected increases in major ongoing Government of Canada transfers and new funding for early learning and child care, and home care and mental health.

The outlook for Income from Government Business Enterprises (GBEs) is based on Ministry of Finance estimates for Hydro One Ltd. (HOL) and projections provided by Ontario Power Generation (OPG), the Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) and Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation (OLG). The forecast for income from GBEs is projected to grow by $0.7 billion between 2016–17 and 2019–20, or at an average annual rate of 3.7 per cent, reflecting higher net income overall from the GBEs.  

The forecast for Other Non-Tax Revenue is based on projections provided by government ministries and Provincial agencies. The outlook for Other Non-Tax revenues is projected to increase by $0.4 billion between 2016–17 and 2019–20, or at an average annual rate of 0.7 per cent. This increase mainly reflects fiscally neutral revenues from carbon allowance proceeds starting in 2017–18; fees, donations and other revenues for the broader public sector; and revenues from vehicle and driver registration fees. This is partially offset by lower revenues due to the removal of the Debt Retirement Charge from commercial, industrial and all other electricity users in 2018–19, and the projected net impact of the Province’s planned asset optimization strategy.

Expense

Program expense is projected to grow from $130.0 billion in 2016–17 to $144.2 billion in 2019–20. This represents an average annual growth rate of 3.5 per cent. Growth in program expense over the medium term is driven by investments to help the people of Ontario in their everyday lives, such as health care, fairness for seniors, the introduction of pharmacare for children and youth under OHIP+, and electricity cost relief programs under the Fair Hydro Plan.

Interest on debt expense is projected to grow from $11.7 billion in 2016–17 to $13.3 billion in 2019–20. This represents an average annual growth rate of 4.2 per cent. Interest on debt is projected to grow due to borrowing for capital spending and interest rates that are forecast to rise.

As a result, total expense is projected to grow from $141.7 billion in 2016–17 to $157.4 billion in 2019–20. This represents an average annual growth rate of 3.6 per cent.

Prudence

As required by the Fiscal Transparency and Accountability Act, 2004, Ontario’s fiscal plan incorporates prudence in the form of a reserve to protect the fiscal outlook against unforeseen adverse changes in the Province’s revenue and expense. The current fiscal outlook includes a reserve of $0.5 billion in 2017–18, $0.5 billion in 2018–19 and $0.8 billion in 2019–20.

The current outlook also maintains contingency funds to help mitigate expense risks that may otherwise negatively impact Ontario’s fiscal performance — particularly in cases where health and safety may be compromised, services to the most vulnerable are jeopardized, or natural disasters occur.

Key Changes to the Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook since the 2017 Budget

TABLE 3.8 Summary of Changes to the Fiscal Outlook since the 2017 Budget
($ Billions)

Item Current
Outlook
2017–18
Medium-Term Outlook
2018–19
Medium-Term Outlook
2019–20
Surplus/(Deficit) from the 2017 Budget 0.0 0.0 0.0
Revenue Changes - Stronger Economic Growth 0.9 0.8 0.7
Revenue Changes - 2016 Tax Returns Processed (0.8) (0.6) (0.6)
Revenue Changes - Moderating Housing Market (0.3) (0.4) (0.3)
Revenue Changes - Support for Small Business: CIT Rate Relief (0.0) (0.1) (0.2)
Revenue Changes - Federal Transfers for Early Learning and Child Care 0.1 0.1 0.1
Revenue Changes - Income from Government Business Enterprises 0.2 0.2 0.2
Total Revenue Changes 0.1 0.1 0.0
Expense Changes - Net Program Expense Changes (see Table 3.9) 0.2 0.2 0.1
Expense Changes - Interest on Debt
Total Expense Changes 0.2 0.2 0.1
Change in Reserve (0.1) (0.1) (0.1)
Fiscal Improvement/(Deterioration)
2017 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review Surplus/(Deficit) 0.0 0.0 0.0

Table 3.8 Footnotes:

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Revenue

The upward revision to Ontario’s 2017 economic growth outlook is expected to boost revenues over the medium term.

Processing of 2016 personal and corporate income tax (PIT and CIT) returns during 2017 has resulted in weaker revenues for PIT, partially offset by stronger CIT, with a net decrease of $0.8 billion starting in 2017–18. 

The outlook for Land Transfer Tax revenue has been adjusted down by $0.3 billion starting in 2017–18 to reflect the decline in housing resales activity since the spring.

The impacts of lowering the small business corporate income tax rate, as outlined in Chapter V, Section A: Business Taxation lowers revenue by $0.3 billion over the outlook.

Government of Canada transfers are unchanged from the 2017 Budget outlook, except for the inclusion of $145 million in new annual federal funding for the early learning and child care bilateral agreement between Ontario and the federal government.

The change in the medium-term outlook for Income from Government Business Enterprises reflects stronger 2016–17 results and 2017–18 year‑to‑date performance.

Expense

TABLE 3.9 Summary of Changes to Program Expense since the 2017 Budget
($ Millions)

Item Current
Outlook
2017–18
Medium-Term Outlook
2018–19
Medium-Term Outlook
2019–20
Multi-Year Impacts of New Investments - Early Learning and Child Care Bilateral Agreement 145 145 145
Multi-Year Impacts of New Investments - Support for Small Business 57 94 94
Multi-Year Impacts of New Investments - Fairness for Seniors 12 67 75
Multi-Year Impacts of New Investments - Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund 1 5 5
Total Multi-Year Impacts of New Investments 216 311 319
In-Year Expense Changes (see Table 3.11) 534
Total Program Expense Changes 750 311 319
Less: Funds Existing in the Fiscal Framework1 (536) (151) (219)
Net Program Expense Changes
since the 2017 Budget
215 160 100

Table 3.9 Footnotes:

[1] Includes contingency funds as well as other ministry resources.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Program expense is projected to be $215 million higher in 2017–18, $160 million higher in 2018–19 and $100 million higher in 2019–20 compared to the 2017 Budget projections. The program expense outlook over the medium term is higher, mainly due to:

  • $145 million in annual funding under the early learning and child care bilateral agreement to increase the accessibility and affordability of high‑quality licensed child care and early learning opportunities, which is offset by an increase in federal revenue.
  • Investments of $245 million over three years to lower costs for small businesses, create opportunities for growth and simplify small businesses’ interactions with government as part of the more than $500 million in new initiatives to support small business. Medium-term initiatives include a two-year support program that would help fruit and vegetable farmers to adapt to a changing small business climate, and grants to encourage businesses to hire and retain youth.
  • Investments of $155 million over three years to support seniors to remain independent, connected, engaged, healthy and safe.
  • An increase of $1 million in 2017–18 and $5 million in 2018–19 and beyond to provide additional funding through the Northern Communities Grant component of the Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund (OMPF).

Interest on debt expense is projected to remain consistent with the forecast in the 2017 Budget for 2017–18, 2018–19 and 2019–20.

The outlook for total expense is higher in every year compared to the 2017 Budget forecast.

Prudence

The 2017 Budget included a reserve of $0.6 billion in 2017–18, $0.6 billion in 2018–19 and $0.9 billion in 2019–20, to protect the fiscal outlook against unforeseen adverse changes to revenue and expense. The reserve is now set at $0.5 billion in 2017–18, $0.5 billion in 2018–19 and $0.8 billion in 2019–20, reflecting confidence arising from a strengthening economy that is enabling the Province to invest in the priorities that matter most to the people of Ontario.

Key 2017–18 Changes since the 2017 Budget

Revenue

The Province’s revenue outlook of $150.1 billion in 2017–18 is $115 million higher than the 2017 Budget forecast.

TABLE 3.10 2017–18 Revenue Changes since the 2017 Budget
($ Millions)

Item 2017–18
Taxation Changes - Personal Income Tax and Ontario Health Premium (1,832)
Taxation Changes - Corporations Tax 1,579
Taxation Changes - Land Transfer Tax (270)
Taxation Changes - All Other Taxes 293
Total Taxation Changes (230)
Government of Canada Transfers 145
Income from Government Business Enterprises 200
Total Revenue Changes since the 2017 Budget 115

Table 3.10 Footnotes:

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Details of 2017–18 In-Year Revenue Changes

Key changes to revenue projections since the 2017 Budget include the following:

  • Personal Income Tax and Ontario Health Premium combined revenue is reduced $1,832 million, primarily due to lower revenues indicated by 2016 tax returns. This is partially offset by slightly higher projected growth in compensation of employees in 2017.
  • Corporations Tax revenue is increased $1,579 million, due to higher revenues indicated by 2016 tax returns and stronger growth in corporate profits in 2017.
  • Land Transfer Tax revenue is $270 million lower, reflecting the volume of home resales.
  • All Other Taxes revenue combined is $293 million higher, mainly due to higher than expected Harmonized Sales Tax revenue, reflecting stronger growth in household expenditures.
  • Government of Canada Transfers are $145 million higher, reflecting new funding for early learning and child care as a result of a bilateral agreement between Ontario and the federal government, as previously reported in the 2017–18 First Quarter Finances. This revenue increase has a matching expense increase.
  • Income from Government Business Enterprises is $200 million higher, reflecting stronger 2017–18 year-to-date performance of the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation (OLG).

Expense

The 2017–18 total expense outlook of $149.6 billion is $215 million higher than the 2017 Budget forecast.

TABLE 3.11 2017–18 Expense Changes since the 2017 Budget
($ Millions)

Item 2017–18
2017–18 Impacts of Multi-Year Investments 216
In-Year Expense Changes - Hospitals and Home Care 140
In-Year Expense Changes - Remediation of the English-Wabigoon River System 85
In-Year Expense Changes - Rouge National Urban Park 47
In-Year Expense Changes - Strategy to Prevent Opioid Addiction and Overdose 42
In-Year Expense Changes - Emergency Forest Firefighting 30
In-Year Expense Changes - Softwood Lumber/Forest Access Roads 20
In-Year Expense Changes - Lac des Mille Lacs Flooding Claim Settlement 15
In-Year Expense Changes - Achieving Excellence for the Whole Learner 13
In-Year Expense Changes - Child Care Support 13
In-Year Expense Changes - Rural Education 13
In-Year Expense Changes - Other 2017–18 Expense Changes since the 2017 Budget 117
Total In-Year Expense Changes 534
Total Program Expense Changes 750
Less: Funds Existing in the Fiscal Framework1 (536)
Net Program Expense Changes since the 2017 Budget 215
Interest on Debt
Total Expense Changes since the 2017 Budget 215

Table 3.11 Footnotes:

[1] Includes contingency funds as well as other ministry resources.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Details of 2017–18 In-Year Expense Changes

The following key program expense changes have occurred since the 2017 Budget.

  • An investment of $140 million in 2017–18 to make over 1,200 additional hospital beds available and enhance home care services. This investment includes $100 million for hospitals to address increased demands for care, and $40 million for post-hospital and preventive care at home.
  • An expense increase of $85 million to fund remediation of contaminants in the English-Wabigoon River System.
  • An expense increase of $47 million to transfer lands to the federal government for inclusion in the Rouge National Urban Park.
  • $42 million in 2017–18 to support urgent relief for those affected by the opioid crisis, including adding more front-line harm-reduction workers, expanding the supply of naloxone and creating new rapid access addiction clinics in every region of the province.
  • An increase of $30 million to support emergency forest firefighting activities until the end of the 2017 fire season.
  • An additional $20 million to the Forest Access Roads Program in 2017–18 to support the construction and maintenance of forest access roads.
  • An increase of $15 million as part of the Lac des Mille Lacs flooding claim settlement in compensation for flooding of Lac des Mille Lacs First Nation reserve land.
  • $13 million in additional funding to help students achieve excellence and build upon the education system’s priorities.
  • Incremental funding of $13 million to support wages for the licensed child care workforce and affordability for families.
  • An investment of $13 million in 2017–18 to strengthen the quality and delivery of education in rural and northern communities.
  • Other investments of $117 million include establishing a new organization with a mandate to advance science on climate change impacts and increase understanding and public awareness of climate risks; supporting humanitarian efforts for the Rohingya people of Myanmar, as well as disaster relief and recovery efforts in Mexico and the Caribbean; support for a new francophone community grant program; and increased support for Ontario’s Washington Office.

Interest on debt expense at $12.2 billion is unchanged from the 2017 Budget forecast.

Improved Transparency in Financial Reporting

To increase transparency in financial reporting, third-party revenue for hospitals, school boards and colleges is being included in provincial revenue. Third-party revenue earned by these organizations, such as tuition fees, research grants, Government of Canada transfers and donations, is no longer netted against the respective sectors’ expenses, as it was in prior years. This results in an increase to the reported expense in the health, education, and postsecondary and training sectors. In addition, interest on debt expense for these sectors, which was previously classified with the respective sectors’ expenses, is now included with interest on debt. The resulting impact of all these changes is an increase in total expense equal to that of total revenue.

This change in reporting has no impact on the Province’s annual surplus/deficit results, net debt or accumulated deficit; is in keeping with public-sector accounting standards; and will improve consistency in reporting with other governments across Canada. This change impacts all years presented in the 2017 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. For ease of reference, Table 3.12 illustrates how the 2017 Budget plan has been restated.

TABLE 3.12 Impact of Changes in Provincial Reporting
($ Billions)

Item 2017 Budget
17–18
2017 Budget
18–19
2017 Budget
19–20
Reclassification
17–18
Reclassification
18–19
Reclassification
19–20
Reclassified
2017 Budget
17–18
Reclassified
2017 Budget
18–19
Reclassified
2017 Budget
19–20
Revenue - Taxation Revenue 100.1 105.4 110.3 100.1 105.4 110.3
Revenue - Government of Canada 25.7 25.4 24.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 26.1 25.8 25.3
Revenue - Income from Government Business Enterprises 4.9 5.7 6.0 4.9 5.7 6.0
Revenue - Other Non-Tax Revenue 11.0 8.3 8.1 8.0 8.2 8.5 19.0 16.5 16.6
Total Revenue 141.7 144.9 149.3 8.4 8.6 8.9 150.0 153.5 158.2
Expense - Health Sector 53.8 56.3 58.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 57.9 60.5 62.4
Expense - Education Sector 26.5 27.4 28.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 27.5 28.4 29.0
Expense - Postsecondary and Training Sector 8.4 8.3 8.4 2.5 2.7 2.9 10.9 11.0 11.3
Expense - Children’s and Social Services Sector 16.9 17.2 17.4 16.9 17.2 17.4
Expense - Justice Sector 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.8
Expense - Other Programs 19.2 18.4 19.2 19.2 18.4 19.2
Program Expense 129.5 132.3 135.8 7.7 8.0 8.3 137.2 140.3 144.1
Interest on Debt 11.6 12.0 12.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 12.2 12.7 13.3
Total Expense 141.1 144.3 148.4 8.4 8.6 8.9 149.4 152.9 157.3
Reserve 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.9
Surplus/(Deficit) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Table 3.12 Footnotes:

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Details of Ontario’s Finances

TABLE 3.13 Revenue
($ Millions)

Item 2014–15 2015–16 Actual
2016–17
Current Outlook
2017–18
Taxation Revenue - Personal Income Tax 29,313 31,141 30,671 33,289
Taxation Revenue - Sales Tax1 21,689 23,455 24,750 26,308
Taxation Revenue - Corporations Tax 9,557 11,428 14,872 15,396
Taxation Revenue - Education Property Tax2 5,561 5,839 5,868 5,970
Taxation Revenue - Employer Health Tax 5,415 5,649 5,908 6,174
Taxation Revenue - Ontario Health Premium 3,366 3,453 3,575 3,700
Taxation Revenue - Gasoline Tax 2,447 2,459 2,626 2,693
Taxation Revenue - Land Transfer Tax 1,778 2,118 2,728 2,869
Taxation Revenue - Tobacco Tax 1,163 1,226 1,230 1,230
Taxation Revenue - Fuel Tax 739 751 742 755
Taxation Revenue - Beer and Wine Tax 560 582 589 606
Taxation Revenue - Electricity Payments in Lieu of Taxes 180 3,247 334 405
Taxation Revenue - Other Taxes 507 470 453 472
Taxation Revenue - Total 82,275 91,818 94,346 99,867
Government of Canada - Canada Health Transfer 12,408 13,089 13,910 14,340
Government of Canada - Canada Social Transfer 4,847 4,984 5,146 5,307
Government of Canada - Equalization 1,988 2,363 2,304 1,424
Government of Canada - Infrastructure Programs 137 146 732 2,328
Government of Canada - Labour Market Programs 896 927 965 977
Government of Canada - Social Housing 465 455 441 412
Government of Canada - Other Federal Payments 874 893 761 1,038
Government of Canada - Direct Transfers to Broader Public-Sector Organizations 308 284 285 399
Government of Canada - Total 21,923 23,141 24,544 26,225
Income from Government Business Enterprises - Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation 1,995 2,234 2,358 2,334
Income from Government Business Enterprises - Liquor Control Board of Ontario 1,831 1,956 2,349 2,137
Income from Government Business Enterprises - Ontario Power Generation Inc./Hydro One Ltd.3 1,789 719 860 617
Income from Government Business Enterprises - Total 5,615 4,909 5,567 5,088
Other Non-Tax Revenue - Reimbursements 985 991 988 984
Other Non-Tax Revenue - Vehicle and Driver Registration Fees 1,433 1,565 1,727 1,934
Other Non-Tax Revenue - Electricity Debt Retirement Charge 956 859 621 623
Other Non-Tax Revenue - Power Supply Contract Recoveries 950 875 838 292
Other Non-Tax Revenue - Sales and Rentals 2,336 2,102 1,999 3,006
Other Non-Tax Revenue - Carbon Allowance Proceeds 1,778
Other Non-Tax Revenue - Other Fees and Licences 693 964 763 984
Other Non-Tax Revenue - Net Reduction of Power Purchase Contract Liability 217 172 129 74
Other Non-Tax Revenue - Royalties 275 274 272 265
Other Non-Tax Revenue - Fees, Donations and Other Revenues from Hospitals, School Boards and Colleges 7,308 7,493 7,957 7,975
Other Non-Tax Revenue - Miscellaneous Other Non-Tax Revenue 1,186 985 983 1,039
Other Non-Tax Revenue - Total 16,339 16,280 16,277 18,954
Total Revenue 126,152 136,148 140,734 150,134

Table 3.13 Footnotes:

[1] Sales Tax revenue is net of the Ontario Sales Tax Credit and the energy component of the Ontario Energy and Property Tax Credit.

[2] Education Property Tax revenue is net of the property tax credit component of the Ontario Energy and Property Tax Credit and the Ontario Senior Homeowners’ Property Tax Grant.

[3] Includes income from Brampton Distribution Holdco Inc. for 2015–16 to 2016–17 from its interest in Hydro One Brampton Networks Inc. On February 28, 2017, the Province sold its entire interest in Hydro One Brampton Networks Inc. and it is no longer included as a government business enterprise.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

TABLE 3.14 Total Expense
($ Millions)

Ministry Expense 2014–15 2015–16 Actual
2016–17
Current Outlook
2017–18
Accessibility Directorate of Ontario (Total) 15 15 15 20.2
Advanced Education and Skills Development (Total) 9,776 9,901 10,131 10,933.7
Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs - Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (Base) 805 883 1,031 989.3
Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs - Time-Limited Assistance 7
Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs - Time-Limited Investments in Infrastructure 36 47 77.4
Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (Total) 847 929 1,031 1,066.7
Attorney General (Total) 1,782 1,859 1,937 1,937.6
Board of Internal Economy (Total) 264 205 219 225.8
Children and Youth Services (Total) 4,166 4,297 4,434 4,445.4
Citizenship and Immigration (Total) 103 102 105 112.3
Community and Social Services - Community and Social Services (Base) 10,550 11,298 11,639 12,389.3
Community and Social Services - Time-Limited Investments in Affordable and Supportive Housing 9.3
Community and Social Services (Total) 10,550 11,298 11,639 12,398.6
Community Safety and Correctional Services - Community Safety and Correctional Services (Base) 2,523 2,565 2,681 2,776.8
Community Safety and Correctional Services - Time-Limited Support for 2015 Pan/Parapan American Games Security 44 122
Community Safety and Correctional Services (Total) 2,567 2,687 2,681 2,776.8
Economic Development and Growth/Research, Innovation and Science (Total) 834 908 1,053 978.9
Education - Education (Base) 25,505 25,967 26,580 2,7691.1
Education - Teachers’ Pension Plan1 564 110 (377) (531.0)
Education (Total) 26,069 26,077 26,204 27,160.1
Energy - Energy (Base) 326 328 456 511.9
Energy - Electricity Cost Relief Programs 400 1,435.8
Energy - Ontario Clean Energy Benefit 1,078 860 21
Energy - Strategic Asset Management and Transformation Related to Hydro One 44 43 100.0
Energy (Total) 1,404 1,232 920 2,047.7
Environment and Climate Change (Total) 486 503 523 1,114.6
Executive Offices - Executive Offices (Base) 36 35 48 58.5
Executive Offices - Time-Limited Assistance 4.0
Executive Offices (Total) 36 35 48 62.5
Finance - Finance (Base) 930 1,048 860 930.3
Finance - Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund 542 513 505 506.3
Finance - Power Supply Contract Costs 950 875 838 292.0
Finance (Total) 2,422 2,436 2,203 1,728.6
Francophone Affairs (Total) 5 8 5 6.8
Government and Consumer Services (Total) 567 602 595 593.3
Health and Long-Term Care (Total) 54,035 54,945 55,969 57,952.8
Indigenous Relations and Reconciliation - Indigenous Relations and Reconciliation (Base) 67 75 128 87.0
Indigenous Relations and Reconciliation - One-Time Investments including Settlements 3 5 21.6
Indigenous Relations and Reconciliation (Total) 71 79 128 108.6
Infrastructure - Infrastructure (Base) 229 213 161 216.7
Infrastructure - Federal–Provincial Infrastructure Programs 8 684.4
Infrastructure (Total) 229 213 169 901.1
International Trade (Total) 17 21 29 62.2
Labour (Total) 305 305 308 316.5
Municipal Affairs/Housing - Municipal Affairs/Housing (Base) 889 923 994 956.2
Municipal Affairs/Housing - Time-Limited Investments 7 1 6 10.0
Municipal Affairs/Housing - Time-Limited Investments in Municipal, Social and Affordable Housing 153 165 544 297.0
Municipal Affairs/Housing (Total) 1,050 1,088 1,544 1,263.3
Natural Resources and Forestry - Natural Resources and Forestry (Base) 713 723 751 775.0
Natural Resources and Forestry - Emergency Forest Firefighting 78 95 107 99.8
Natural Resources and Forestry (Total) 791 818 858 874.8
Northern Development and Mines (Total) 804 701 814 777.9
Seniors Affairs (Total) 17 20 19 35.9
Status of Women (Total) 20 26 23 25.8
Tourism, Culture and Sport - Tourism, Culture and Sport (Base) 1,246 1,431 1,540 1,388.9
Tourism, Culture and Sport - Time-Limited Investments to Support 2015 Pan/Parapan American Games 405 839
Tourism, Culture and Sport (Total) 1,650 2,270 1,540 1,388.9
Transportation - Transportation (Base) 2,941 3,284 3,636 4,216.9
Transportation - Time-Limited Investments in Infrastructure 1,112.6
Transportation (Total) 2,941 3,284 3,636 5,329.5
Treasury Board Secretariat - Treasury Board Secretariat (Base) 237 221 234 335.7
Treasury Board Secretariat - Employee and Pensioner Benefits 1,186 987 1,002 1,208.0
Treasury Board Secretariat - Operating Contingency Fund 344.1
Treasury Board Secretariat - Capital Contingency Fund 53.1
Treasury Board Secretariat (Total) 1,423 1,208 1,236 1,940.9
Interest on Debt2 11,221 11,589 11,709 12,245.6
Year-End Savings3 (1,200.0)
Total Expense 136,467 139,663 141,725 149,633.5

Table 3.14 Footnotes:

[1] Numbers reflect the pension expense/recovery that was calculated in accordance with Public Sector Accounting Board standards.

[2] Interest on debt is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $202 million in 2014–15, $165 million in 2015–16, $158 million in 2016–17 and $292 million in 2017–18.

[3] As in past years, the Year-End Savings provision reflects efficiencies through in-year expenditure management and underspending due to factors such as program management and changes in project startups and implementation plans.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

TABLE 3.15 2017–18 Infrastructure Expenditures
($ Millions)

Sector Total
Infrastructure Expenditures
2016–17 Actual1
2017–18 Current Outlook
Investment in Capital Assets2
2017–18 Current Outlook
Transfers and Other Infrastructure Expenditures3
2017–18 Current Outlook
Total Infrastructure Expenditures4
Transportation - Transit 3,354 5,440 1,736 7,176
Transportation - Provincial Highways 2,213 2,900 120 3,020
Transportation - Other Transportation, Property and Planning 427 172 183 355
Health - Hospitals 2,419 2,588 295 2,883
Health - Other Health 252 81 261 342
Education 1,632 2,636 53 2,689
Postsecondary - Colleges and Other 567 977 13 990
Postsecondary - Universities 332 399 399
Social 740 20 454 474
Justice 211 107 227 334
Other Sectors5 760 651 967 1,618
Total Infrastructure Expenditures 12,907 15,572 4,708 20,280

Table 3.16 Footnotes:

[1] Includes Provincial investment in capital assets of $10 billion.

[2] Includes $292 million in interest capitalized during construction.

[3] Includes transfers to municipalities, universities and non-consolidated agencies.

[4] Includes third-party investments in hospitals, colleges and schools; and provisional federal contributions to Provincial infrastructure investments.

[5] Includes government administration, natural resources, and culture and tourism sectors.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

TABLE 3.16 Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics1, 2
($ Millions)

Item 2008–09 2009–103 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13
Revenue 103,416 102,553 113,594 116,401 120,319
Expense - Programs 100,876 112,696 117,600 118,783 118,661
Expense - Interest on Debt4 8,949 9,119 10,005 10,587 10,878
Total Expense 109,825 121,815 127,605 129,370 129,539
Reserve –  –  –  –  – 
Surplus/(Deficit) (6,409) (19,262) (14,011) (12,969) (9,220)
Net Debt5 169,585 193,589 214,511 236,230 252,823
Accumulated Deficit 113,238 130,957 144,573 158,410 167,132
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Market Prices 608,446 597,876 630,983 659,740 680,086
Primary Household Income 414,724 412,847 424,251 444,076 459,111
Population — July (000s) 12,883 12,998 13,135 13,264 13,414
Net Debt per Capita (dollars) 13,164 14,894 16,331 17,810 18,848
Household Income per Capita (dollars) 32,193 31,763 32,299 33,481 34,227
Interest on Debt as a Per Cent of Revenue 8.7% 8.9% 8.8% 9.1% 9.0%
Net Debt as a Per Cent of GDP 27.9% 32.4% 34.0% 35.8% 37.2%
Accumulated Deficit as a Per Cent of GDP 18.6% 21.9% 22.9% 24.0% 24.6%

Table 3.16 Footnotes:

[1] Amounts reflect a presentation change for hospitals, school boards and colleges. Third-party revenue for these organizations, previously netted against sector expenses, is now classified as revenue. This does not impact the Province’s annual surplus/deficit results, net debt or accumulated deficit. Please see the Improved Transparency in Financial Reporting section earlier in this chapter for further information.

[2] Revenue and Expense have been restated to reflect a fiscally neutral accounting change for the revised presentation of education property taxes, as described in the 2010 Ontario Budget; a fiscally neutral accounting change related to the reclassification of government agencies and organizations, as described in the 2011 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review; and a fiscally neutral reclassification of a number of tax measures that are transfers or grants, as described in the 2012 Ontario Budget.

[3] Starting in 2009–10, investments in minor tangible capital assets owned by the Province were capitalized and amortized to expense. All capital assets owned by consolidated organizations are being accounted for in a similar manner.

[4] Interest on Debt is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $202 million in 2014–15, $165 million in 2015–16, $158 million in 2016–17 and $292 million in 2017–18.

[5] Starting in 2009–10, Net Debt includes the net debt of hospitals, school boards and colleges, consistent with Public Sector Accounting Board standards. For comparative purposes, Net Debt has been restated for 2008–09 to conform to this revised presentation.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Sources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance and Treasury Board Secretariat.

TABLE 3.16 Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics1, 2 (continued)
($ Millions)

Item

2013–14

2014–15 2015–16 Actual
2016–17
Current Outlook
2017–18
Revenue 122,955 126,152 136,148 140,734 150,134
Expense - Programs 122,253 125,246 128,074 130,016 137,388
Expense - Interest on Debt3 11,155 11,221 11,589 11,709 12,246
Total Expense 133,408 136,467 139,663 141,725 149,634
Reserve –  –  –  –  500
Surplus/(Deficit) (10,453) (10,315) (3,515) (991) 0
Net Debt4 267,968 285,403 295,372 301,648 311,653
Accumulated Deficit 176,634 187,511 192,029 193,510 193,510
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Market Prices 695,354 726,053 762,029 794,835 836,644
Primary Household Income 472,921 489,436 512,566 528,419 550,810
Population — July (000s) 13,556 13,680 13,790 13,976 14,193
Net Debt per Capita (dollars) 19,767 20,863 21,419 21,583 21,958
Household Income per Capita (dollars) 34,887 35,776 37,170 37,808 38,809
Interest on Debt as a Per Cent of Revenue 9.1% 8.9% 8.5% 8.3% 8.2%
Net Debt as a Per Cent of GDP 38.5% 39.3% 38.8% 38.0% 37.3%
Accumulated Deficit as a Per Cent of GDP 25.4% 25.8% 25.2% 24.3% 23.1%

Table 3.16 (continued) Footnotes:

[1] Amounts reflect a presentation change for hospitals, school boards and colleges. Third-party revenue for these organizations, previously netted against sector expenses, is now classified as revenue. This does not impact the Province’s annual surplus/deficit results, net debt or accumulated deficit. Please see the Improved Transparency in Financial Reporting section earlier in this chapter for further information.

[2] Revenue and Expense have been restated to reflect a fiscally neutral accounting change for the revised presentation of education property taxes, as described in the 2010 Ontario Budget; a fiscally neutral accounting change related to the reclassification of government agencies and organizations, as described in the 2011 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review; and a fiscally neutral reclassification of a number of tax measures that are transfers or grants, as described in the 2012 Ontario Budget.

[3] Interest on Debt is net of interest capitalized during construction of tangible capital assets of $202 million in 2014–15, $165 million in 2015–16, $158 million in 2016–17 and $292 million in 2017–18.

[4] Starting in 2009–10, Net Debt includes the net debt of hospitals, school boards and colleges, consistent with Public Sector Accounting Board standards. For comparative purposes, Net Debt has been restated for 2008–09 to conform to this revised presentation.

Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Sources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance and Treasury Board Secretariat.

Chart 3.6 Composition of Revenue, 2017–18

Chart 3.6 Composition of Revenue, 2017–18
Larger version of image
Accessible description of Chart 3.6

Chart 3.7 Composition of Total Expense, 2017–18

Chart 3.7 Composition of Total Expense, 2017–18
Larger version of image
Accessible description of Chart 3.7

Chart Descriptions

Chart 3.6: Composition of Revenue, 2017–18

This pie chart shows the composition of Ontario’s revenue in 2017–18, which totals $150.1 billion.

The largest taxation source is Personal Income Tax revenue at $33.3 billion, accounting for 22.2 per cent of total revenue. This is followed by Sales Tax at $26.3 billion or 17.5 per cent of total revenue and Corporations Tax at $15.4 billion or 10.3 per cent of total revenue. Total taxation revenue accounts for $99.9 billion or 66.5 per cent of total revenue. The other major non-taxation sources of revenue are Federal Transfers of $26.2 billion or 17.5 per cent of total revenue, Income from Government Business Enterprises at $5.1 billion or 3.4 per cent of total revenue, and various Other Non-Tax Revenues at $19.0 billion or 12.6 per cent of total revenue.

Return to Chart 3.6

Chart 3.7: Composition of Total Expense, 2017–18

This pie chart shows the share of total expense and dollar amounts by sector in 2017–18. Total expense in 2017–18 is $149.6 billion.

The largest expense is the Health Sector at $58.0 billion, accounting for 38.7 per cent of total expense.

The remaining sectors of total expense include: the Education Sector at $27.7 billion or 18.5 per cent, the Postsecondary and Training Sector at $10.9 billion or 7.3 per cent, the Children’s and Social Services Sector at $16.8 billion or 11.3 per cent, the Justice Sector at $4.7 billion or 3.2 per cent, and Other Programs at $19.3 billion or 12.9 per cent. Interest on Debt, included as part of Total Expense, is $12.2 billion or 8.2 per cent.

Note that the Education Sector excludes the Teachers’ Pension Plan. Teachers’ Pension Plan expense is included in Other Programs.

Return to Chart 3.7