Contents
Foreword
Chapter I: Transforming Public Services
Highlights
Introduction
Knowledge and Skills
Transforming Health Care
- Physician Compensation
- Keeping Ontario Healthy
- Faster Access and a Stronger Link to Family Health Care
- Providing the Right Care, at the Right Time, in the Right Place
- Evidence-Based Decisions
- Funding Reform
- A Fair and Efficient Drug System
Jobs and Prosperity
- Jobs and Prosperity Council
- Jobs and Prosperity Fund
- Reaching Out to Global Markets
- Solvency Funding Relief for Private-Sector Pension Plans
Infrastructure Supporting Jobs and Growth
Northern Ontario and the Ring of Fire
Strong Children’s and Social Services
- Ontario Child Benefit
- Expanding Opportunities in Developmental Services
- Improving Child Welfare Outcomes
- Reforming the Youth Justice System
Electricity Sector
Supporting Municipalities
- Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund
- Service Delivery Efficiencies
- Gaming Support for Municipalities
- Provincial Offences Act (POA)
- Municipal Infrastructure
Financial Services and Capital Markets
Other Actions Across Government to Balance the Budget
- Government Spending Per Capita
- Update on Savings of $1.5 Billion Announced in the 2011 Budget
- If No Action Is Taken
- A Long-Term Plan for Public-Sector Compensation
- Managing the Size of the Ontario Public Service
- Removing Overlap and Duplication
- More Efficient and Effective Delivery Models
- Focusing on Core Business
- Maximizing the Value of Public Assets
- Effective Implementation of Reform
- Responsible Actions to Increase Revenues
Chapter II: Ontario’s Economic Outlook and Fiscal Plan
Highlights
Section A: Overview
Section B: 2011–12 Interim Fiscal Performance
In-Year Revenue Performance
In-Year Expense Performance
Section C: Ontario’s Economic Outlook
Overview
Recent Economic Developments
The New Economic Reality
Global Economic Uncertainty
Outlook for Ontario Economic Growth
Long-Term Challenges for Ontario
Change in the Economic Outlook
Details of the Ontario Economic Outlook
Section D: Ontario’s Revenue Outlook
Risks to the Revenue Outlook
Section E: Ontario’s Fiscal Plan
Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook
- If No Action is Taken
- Medium-Term Expense Outlook
- Risks to Expense Outlook
- Contingent Liabilities
- Key Changes in the Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook Since the 2011 Budget
Plan to Balance the Budget
Section F: Accountability, Transparency and Financial Management
Accountability
Transparency
Financial Management
Section G: Details of Ontario’s Finances
Fiscal Tables and Charts
Chapter III: Federal–Provincial Relations
Highlights
Introduction
Working Together to Save Taxpayers’ Money
- Opportunities to Disentangle Public Services
- Working Together for a Fair Taxation System
- Potential Federal Impacts on Ontario’s Fiscal Position
Building the Economy — Supporting Jobs for Ontario Families
- Support for Clean Energy and the Ring of Fire
- Employment Insurance
- On-Reserve Education
- Agricultural Support
- Trade Missions
Fiscal Arrangements
Chapter IV: Tax and Pension Systems
Highlights
Section A: Tax
Introduction
Corporate Income Tax
Business Education Tax
Mining Sector Review
Greater Transparency and Accountability in Tax Expenditures
Ontario Trillium Benefit
Healthy Homes Renovation Tax Credit
Enhancing Revenue Integrity
Tobacco Enforcement
Other Federal–Provincial–Territorial Tax Issues
Other Administrative Measures
- More Efficient Tax Administration
- Complying with Tax Obligations
- Retail Sales Tax Refunds and Rebates
Summary of Measures
Other Measures and Technical Amendments
Section B: Pension Systems
Introduction
Public-Sector Defined Benefit Pension Plans
- Jointly Sponsored Pension Plans (JSPPs)
- Single-Employer Pension Plans (SEPPs)
- Improving Efficiencies in Pension Fund Management
Strengthening Canada’s Retirement Income System
Ongoing Pension Reform
Chapter V: Borrowing and Debt Management
Highlights
Long-Term Public Borrowing
Debt
Residual Stranded Debt Update
Total Debt Composition
Debt-to-GDP Ratios
Cost of Debt
Risk Exposure
Consolidated Financial Tables
List of Tables
Chapter I: Transforming Public Services
- TABLE 1.1: Effect of Changes for Senior ODB Recipients
- TABLE 1.2: Examples of ODB Deductibles
- TABLE 1.3: Conservation Programs
- TABLE 1.4: Provincial Support Continues to Increase as OMPF Is Phased Down
- TABLE 1.5: Update to 2011 Budget Savings Strategies, 2011–12 to 2013–14
- TABLE 1.6: Impact of Measures on Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook
- TABLE 1.7: Impact of Fiscal Actions
- TABLE 1.8: Expense Management Measures, 2012–13 to 2014–15
- TABLE 1.9: Comparison of Highway 407 ETR and Teranet Transactions
Chapter II: Ontario’s Economic Outlook and Fiscal Plan
- TABLE 2.1: 2012 Budget — Numbers at a Glance
- TABLE 2.2: 2011–12 In-Year Fiscal Performance
- TABLE 2.3: Summary of Revenue Changes Since 2011 Budget
- TABLE 2.4: Summary of Expense Changes Since 2011 Budget
- TABLE 2.5: 2012 Budget — Numbers at a Glance
- TABLE 2.6: Ontario Economic Outlook
- TABLE 2.7: Outlook for External Factors
- TABLE 2.8: Impacts of Sustained Changes in Key External Factors on Ontario’s Real GDP Growth
- TABLE 2.9: The Ontario Economy, 2010 to 2015
- TABLE 2.10: Private-Sector Forecasts for Ontario Real GDP Growth
- TABLE 2.11: Changes in Key Economic Forecast Assumptions 2011 Budget to 2012 Budget
- TABLE 2.12: Summary of Medium-Term Outlook
- TABLE 2.13: Personal Income Tax Revenue Outlook
- TABLE 2.14: Sales Tax Revenue Outlook
- TABLE 2.15: Corporations Tax Revenue Outlook
- TABLE 2.16: Summary of Medium-Term Revenue Changes Since the 2011 Budget
- TABLE 2.17: Selected Economic and Revenue Risks and Sensitivities
- TABLE 2.18: Medium-Term Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- TABLE 2.19: Impact of Fiscal Actions
- TABLE 2.20: Impact of Measures on Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook
- TABLE 2.21: Summary of Medium-Term Expense Outlook
- TABLE 2.22: Selected Expense Risks and Sensitivities
- TABLE 2.23: Change in Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook Since the 2011 Budget
- TABLE 2.24: Ontario’s Recovery Plan
- TABLE 2.25: Impact of Change in Presentation of Tax Expenditures
- TABLE 2.26: Medium-Term Fiscal Plan and Outlook
- TABLE 2.27: Revenue
- TABLE 2.28: Total Expense
- TABLE 2.29: Other Expense
- TABLE 2.30: 2012–13 Infrastructure Expenditures
- TABLE 2.31: Ten-Year Review of Selected Financial and Economic Statistics
- TABLE 2.32: Support for Health Care, Charities, Problem Gambling and Related Programs, Municipalities and Ontario First Nations
Chapter IV: Tax and Pension Systems
- TABLE 4.1: Ontario’s Revised Corporate Income Tax Rate Cut Plan
- TABLE 4.2: Total Business Tax Relief by Sector — Annual Savings
- TABLE 4.3: Examples of Business Education Tax Cuts
- TABLE 4.4: 2012 Budget Impact Table
- TABLE 4.5: Historical and Projected Pension Expense by Plan
Chapter V: Borrowing and Debt Management
- TABLE 5.1: 2011–12 Borrowing Program: Province and Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation
- TABLE 5.2: Medium-Term Borrowing Outlook: Province and Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation
- TABLE 5.3: Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit: Interim 2012
- TABLE 5.4: Medium-Term Outlook: Net Debt and Accumulated Deficit
- TABLE 5.5: Debt Maturity Schedule: Interim 2012
- TABLE 5.6: Derivative Portfolio Notional Value: Interim 2012
List of Charts
Chapter I: Transforming Public Services
- CHART 1.1: Ontario’s Plan to Balance the Budget
- CHART 1.2: Education Funding and Student Enrolment
- CHART 1.3: Average Tuition Fees as Reduced by the 30% Off Ontario Tuition Grant
- CHART 1.4: Total Active Apprentices by Year
- CHART 1.5: Second Career Participants by Year
- CHART 1.6: Payments to Physicians
- CHART 1.7: Total Infrastructure Investment
- CHART 1.8: Ongoing Support to Municipalities Has Increased from $1 Billion in 2003 to $3.2 Billion in 2012
- CHART 1.9: Auto Insurance Rates Held Below Inflation Since 2003
- CHART 1.10: Ontario Is Projected to Have the Lowest Program Spending Per Capita in 2011–12
- CHART 1.11: Fiscal Gap If No Action Is Taken
- CHART 1.12: For Every Dollar in New Revenues Over the Next Three Years, the Plan Includes Four Dollars of Expense Measures
- CHART 1.13: Ontario Public Service Staffing Levels
- CHART 1.14: Provincial Public Service Employment
Chapter II: Ontario’s Economic Outlook and Fiscal Plan
- CHART 2.1: Contributions to Real Growth in the Economy in 2011
- CHART 2.2: Job Recovery in Ontario
- CHART 2.3: Ontario Job Recovery Stronger Than U.S. States
- CHART 2.4: Ontario Recovered More Jobs Than Other Provinces
- CHART 2.5: High Canadian Dollar and Oil Prices Are a Challenge
- CHART 2.6: Ontario Exports Shifting to New Markets
- CHART 2.7: Global Economic Growth Outlook Has Weakened
- CHART 2.8: Euro-Zone Economy Expected to Decline This Year
- CHART 2.9: Strengthening U.S. Recovery
- CHART 2.10: U.S. Light Motor Vehicle Sales Continue to Grow
- CHART 2.11: Oil Prices to Remain High
- CHART 2.12: Canadian Dollar to Remain Close to Parity
- CHART 2.13: Interest Rates to Rise Gradually
- CHART 2.14: Forecast for Sustained and Better Balanced Growth
- CHART 2.15: Continued Economic Growth Expected
- CHART 2.16: Employment Will Continue to Increase
- CHART 2.17: Lower Unemployment Rate
- CHART 2.18: Sustained Increases in Household Spending
- CHART 2.19: Sustained Gains in Business Machinery and Equipment Spending
- CHART 2.20: Housing in Ontario to Remain Affordable
- CHART 2.21: Labour Force Growth Will Slow
- CHART 2.22: Slowing Productivity Growth
- CHART 2.23: Private-Sector Economic Forecasts Have Eased
- CHART 2.24: Fiscal Gap If No Action Is Taken
- CHART 2.25: Ontario’s Plan to Balance the Budget
- CHART 2.26: Composition of Revenue, 2012–13
- CHART 2.27: Composition of Total Expense, 2012–13
- CHART 2.28: Composition of Program Expense, 2012–13
Chapter III: Federal–Provincial Relations
- CHART 3.1: Ontario’s EI Coverage Rate Lower than Average of the Other Nine Provinces for 35 Years
- CHART 3.2: EI Training Allocation per Unemployed by Province in 2011–12
- CHART 3.3: Ontarians’ Net Contribution to the EI program
- CHART 3.4: Net Contribution to Equalization in 2012–13
- CHART 3.5: Ontario’s Fiscal Capacity Is Fifth in 2012–13 But Federal Transfers Drop Ontario to Ninth
Chapter IV: Tax and Pension Systems
- CHART 4.1: CIT Rates in Canada
- CHART 4.2: Ontario’s Internationally Competitive CIT Rate
- CHART 4.3: Tax Savings for a Telecommunications Provider
- CHART 4.4: Tax Savings for a Manufacturer
- CHART 4.5: Cutting Ontario’s Marginal Effective Tax Rate on New Business Investment in Half
- CHART 4.6: Education Property Taxes as a Per Cent of Education Expenditures
- CHART 4.7: Business R&D Spending as a Percentage of GDP
Chapter V: Borrowing and Debt Management
- CHART 5.1: 2011–12 Borrowing — Canadian-dollar Market
- CHART 5.2: 2011–12 Borrowing — International Markets
- CHART 5.3: Residual Stranded Debt and OEFC Unfunded Liability Since April 1, 1999
- CHART 5.4: Total Debt Composition
- CHART 5.5: Net Debt-to-GDP
- CHART 5.6: Accumulated Deficit-to-GDP
- CHART 5.7: Effective Interest Rate (Weighted Average)
on Total Debt - CHART 5.8: Net Interest Rate Resetting Exposure
- CHART 5.9: Foreign Exchange Exposure
