Ontario Population Projections Update, 2016–2041
Table 15: Northwestern Ontario and its census divisions, population by five-year age group, 2016–2041 — reference scenario

Table 15: Population by five-year age group, 2016–2041 — reference scenario
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO
Age Groups 0–4 to 45–49
Year 0–4 5–9 10–14 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49
2016 13,710 13,588 13,223 14,513 16,373 15,528 14,006 13,424 13,719 14,998
2017 13,779 13,534 13,257 14,226 16,141 15,900 14,304 13,608 13,479 14,701
2018 13,761 13,623 13,270 14,100 15,708 16,212 14,509 13,746 13,296 14,560
2019 13,696 13,683 13,325 13,846 15,434 16,268 14,838 13,852 13,300 14,268
2020 13,591 13,716 13,482 13,649 15,024 16,150 15,180 13,880 13,352 14,035
2021 13,434 13,753 13,649 13,538 14,616 15,985 15,427 13,969 13,400 13,607
2022 13,478 13,779 13,559 13,548 14,287 15,626 15,670 14,174 13,533 13,342
2023 13,491 13,730 13,623 13,545 14,131 15,139 15,899 14,315 13,643 13,148
2024 13,475 13,647 13,663 13,592 13,881 14,815 15,908 14,587 13,723 13,147
2025 13,434 13,540 13,685 13,745 13,697 14,402 15,770 14,899 13,747 13,192
2026 13,368 13,393 13,727 13,912 13,601 14,015 15,620 15,144 13,842 13,243
2027 13,288 13,440 13,761 13,830 13,617 13,710 15,285 15,388 14,043 13,374
2028 13,188 13,458 13,719 13,898 13,630 13,555 14,829 15,623 14,180 13,489
2029 13,079 13,448 13,642 13,949 13,686 13,324 14,515 15,640 14,444 13,581
2030 12,965 13,412 13,541 13,974 13,849 13,154 14,121 15,511 14,751 13,617
2031 12,844 13,356 13,402 14,019 14,019 13,065 13,750 15,373 14,998 13,717
2032 12,728 13,283 13,451 14,060 13,944 13,090 13,455 15,059 15,244 13,911
2033 12,621 13,189 13,470 14,023 14,007 13,119 13,304 14,634 15,481 14,047
2034 12,528 13,086 13,466 13,953 14,061 13,173 13,094 14,331 15,509 14,308
2035 12,449 12,977 13,433 13,862 14,097 13,328 12,933 13,955 15,392 14,611
2036 12,385 12,863 13,380 13,734 14,161 13,484 12,854 13,596 15,260 14,854
2037 12,334 12,753 13,310 13,793 14,196 13,422 12,890 13,309 14,961 15,100
2038 12,294 12,654 13,220 13,824 14,166 13,485 12,929 13,158 14,550 15,340
2039 12,268 12,566 13,119 13,828 14,109 13,535 12,985 12,964 14,256 15,373
2040 12,256 12,491 13,012 13,800 14,038 13,573 13,136 12,816 13,894 15,266
2041 12,252 12,430 12,900 13,751 13,938 13,634 13,292 12,742 13,543 15,139
Table 15: Population by five-year age group, 2016–2041 — reference scenario
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO
Age Groups 50–54 to 90+ and Total for all age groups
Year 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80–84 85–89 90+ Total
2016 17,954 19,306 16,876 14,335 9,424 7,124 5,060 3,255 2,176 238,592
2017 17,280 19,212 17,438 14,441 10,354 7,268 5,133 3,274 2,249 239,578
2018 16,325 19,089 17,860 14,823 11,088 7,503 5,272 3,252 2,330 240,327
2019 15,606 18,820 18,165 15,315 11,747 7,659 5,456 3,310 2,355 240,943
2020 15,075 18,365 18,380 15,763 12,504 7,899 5,572 3,359 2,400 241,376
2021 14,856 17,673 18,764 16,018 13,102 8,265 5,695 3,428 2,440 241,619
2022 14,531 16,995 18,663 16,548 13,211 9,106 5,828 3,500 2,479 241,857
2023 14,368 16,052 18,540 16,954 13,577 9,775 6,044 3,612 2,504 242,090
2024 14,065 15,343 18,284 17,246 14,046 10,374 6,197 3,766 2,550 242,309
2025 13,828 14,819 17,855 17,468 14,480 11,056 6,413 3,869 2,607 242,506
2026 13,420 14,609 17,195 17,851 14,734 11,605 6,740 3,979 2,680 242,678
2027 13,169 14,300 16,543 17,774 15,244 11,734 7,466 4,091 2,764 242,821
2028 12,984 14,145 15,640 17,687 15,640 12,096 8,042 4,272 2,854 242,929
2029 12,984 13,854 14,958 17,462 15,936 12,550 8,553 4,417 2,977 242,999
2030 13,029 13,630 14,460 17,071 16,172 12,968 9,133 4,599 3,076 243,033
2031 13,086 13,237 14,269 16,456 16,546 13,232 9,611 4,862 3,185 243,027
2032 13,220 13,000 13,979 15,845 16,503 13,718 9,766 5,425 3,308 242,989
2033 13,340 12,823 13,839 14,999 16,447 14,107 10,113 5,880 3,471 242,914
2034 13,439 12,827 13,563 14,364 16,265 14,405 10,528 6,271 3,636 242,807
2035 13,483 12,880 13,349 13,899 15,930 14,654 10,920 6,713 3,797 242,662
2036 13,591 12,938 12,980 13,731 15,382 15,019 11,169 7,081 4,027 242,489
2037 13,786 13,075 12,756 13,467 14,826 15,011 11,620 7,238 4,439 242,286
2038 13,919 13,201 12,597 13,338 14,046 14,999 11,990 7,541 4,811 242,062
2039 14,175 13,306 12,612 13,085 13,474 14,862 12,278 7,890 5,133 241,818
2040 14,474 13,355 12,675 12,889 13,059 14,582 12,528 8,225 5,484 241,553
2041 14,722 13,463 12,740 12,553 12,917 14,106 12,874 8,448 5,826 241,270

Table 15.1: Population by five-year age group, 2016–2041 — reference scenario
KENORA
Age Groups 0–4 to 45–49
Year 0–4 5–9 10–14 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49
2016 5,556 5,437 4,854 5,082 5,167 4,690 4,241 4,113 3,982 4,183
2017 5,577 5,389 4,940 5,063 5,191 4,787 4,345 4,198 3,953 4,126
2018 5,526 5,443 4,983 5,083 5,126 4,909 4,394 4,266 3,931 4,106
2019 5,450 5,492 5,074 5,025 5,094 4,991 4,508 4,230 4,003 4,040
2020 5,362 5,533 5,186 4,977 5,044 4,978 4,632 4,220 4,057 3,987
2021 5,257 5,500 5,387 4,907 4,971 4,978 4,709 4,241 4,114 3,941
2022 5,273 5,496 5,321 4,973 4,926 4,941 4,764 4,297 4,174 3,892
2023 5,280 5,432 5,356 5,004 4,925 4,846 4,855 4,314 4,224 3,859
2024 5,281 5,350 5,390 5,083 4,863 4,787 4,912 4,403 4,182 3,923
2025 5,275 5,264 5,421 5,189 4,815 4,720 4,890 4,511 4,172 3,972
2026 5,264 5,170 5,395 5,375 4,756 4,645 4,884 4,590 4,197 4,023
2027 5,251 5,188 5,398 5,315 4,823 4,595 4,843 4,647 4,254 4,080
2028 5,236 5,196 5,342 5,352 4,860 4,586 4,746 4,739 4,276 4,129
2029 5,222 5,197 5,267 5,390 4,933 4,531 4,683 4,792 4,364 4,098
2030 5,211 5,192 5,188 5,421 5,033 4,487 4,611 4,774 4,470 4,097
2031 5,203 5,183 5,100 5,399 5,200 4,440 4,532 4,769 4,551 4,126
2032 5,201 5,172 5,119 5,403 5,149 4,499 4,475 4,727 4,613 4,182
2033 5,203 5,158 5,128 5,353 5,183 4,534 4,463 4,631 4,703 4,207
2034 5,210 5,144 5,133 5,287 5,221 4,594 4,412 4,569 4,755 4,295
2035 5,221 5,133 5,131 5,217 5,253 4,683 4,370 4,500 4,737 4,399
2036 5,235 5,124 5,123 5,137 5,249 4,830 4,328 4,420 4,728 4,477
2037 5,250 5,119 5,112 5,158 5,253 4,791 4,382 4,361 4,687 4,539
2038 5,267 5,119 5,099 5,170 5,212 4,826 4,417 4,344 4,591 4,630
2039 5,284 5,122 5,085 5,179 5,155 4,862 4,473 4,297 4,529 4,680
2040 5,301 5,130 5,073 5,180 5,099 4,893 4,558 4,258 4,461 4,665
2041 5,317 5,142 5,062 5,175 5,035 4,891 4,693 4,219 4,380 4,656
Table 15.1: Population by five-year age group, 2016–2041 — reference scenario
KENORA
Age Groups 50–54 to 90+ and Total for all age groups
Year 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80–84 85–89 90+ Total
2016 4,967 5,003 4,128 3,563 2,222 1,690 1,150 601 342 70,971
2017 4,801 5,056 4,312 3,538 2,491 1,689 1,178 617 362 71,613
2018 4,573 5,086 4,472 3,593 2,689 1,736 1,223 621 378 72,138
2019 4,382 5,096 4,620 3,658 2,891 1,741 1,252 644 397 72,588
2020 4,261 5,037 4,688 3,777 3,044 1,803 1,280 679 402 72,947
2021 4,153 4,884 4,843 3,860 3,153 1,901 1,291 714 406 73,210
2022 4,079 4,709 4,882 4,027 3,128 2,137 1,290 735 422 73,466
2023 4,046 4,479 4,902 4,176 3,179 2,311 1,334 765 430 73,717
2024 3,972 4,288 4,909 4,308 3,237 2,488 1,346 785 454 73,961
2025 3,914 4,167 4,853 4,373 3,351 2,623 1,401 809 476 74,196
2026 3,868 4,064 4,709 4,521 3,430 2,725 1,486 821 499 74,422
2027 3,822 3,993 4,540 4,562 3,585 2,714 1,678 825 527 74,640
2028 3,788 3,962 4,322 4,589 3,724 2,769 1,824 859 549 74,848
2029 3,847 3,889 4,140 4,600 3,850 2,830 1,968 872 574 75,047
2030 3,892 3,835 4,028 4,550 3,915 2,936 2,081 917 600 75,238
2031 3,942 3,790 3,934 4,421 4,055 3,015 2,167 981 613 75,421
2032 4,004 3,744 3,869 4,265 4,101 3,161 2,171 1,117 630 75,602
2033 4,054 3,711 3,844 4,066 4,131 3,294 2,229 1,227 658 75,777
2034 4,029 3,770 3,775 3,899 4,150 3,412 2,287 1,328 679 75,949
2035 4,033 3,816 3,723 3,798 4,111 3,479 2,386 1,407 719 76,116
2036 4,066 3,866 3,680 3,715 4,003 3,609 2,456 1,466 769 76,281
2037 4,124 3,929 3,639 3,657 3,868 3,659 2,585 1,478 851 76,442
2038 4,148 3,982 3,608 3,637 3,690 3,699 2,704 1,530 930 76,603
2039 4,234 3,962 3,668 3,575 3,546 3,724 2,810 1,581 997 76,763
2040 4,335 3,968 3,715 3,529 3,461 3,694 2,876 1,659 1,066 76,921
2041 4,416 4,000 3,765 3,494 3,389 3,605 2,992 1,718 1,127 77,076

Table 15.2: Population by five-year age group, 2016–2041 — reference scenario
RAINY RIVER
Age Groups 0–4 to 45–49
Year 0–4 5–9 10–14 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49
2016 1,076 1,100 1,196 1,366 1,326 881 950 976 1,137 1,216
2017 1,082 1,081 1,194 1,296 1,330 947 944 929 1,151 1,169
2018 1,066 1,071 1,191 1,250 1,319 1,005 916 926 1,092 1,174
2019 1,042 1,082 1,144 1,254 1,289 1,046 881 934 1,049 1,167
2020 1,015 1,078 1,119 1,231 1,259 1,091 865 933 989 1,170
2021 987 1,069 1,102 1,231 1,226 1,084 878 919 969 1,123
2022 985 1,071 1,081 1,224 1,157 1,069 923 909 921 1,131
2023 982 1,053 1,070 1,218 1,115 1,046 964 884 917 1,072
2024 977 1,029 1,080 1,174 1,118 1,015 992 851 921 1,033
2025 971 1,002 1,076 1,151 1,105 988 1,021 837 920 977
2026 963 975 1,067 1,138 1,108 962 1,017 847 908 960
2027 956 973 1,069 1,119 1,094 916 999 888 901 917
2028 947 970 1,051 1,110 1,087 887 977 925 876 915
2029 938 965 1,027 1,121 1,052 885 952 949 846 922
2030 929 959 1,001 1,116 1,039 872 928 972 835 921
2031 918 952 976 1,108 1,034 870 904 966 846 910
2032 907 945 973 1,112 1,014 861 866 949 883 903
2033 896 936 970 1,096 1,006 858 840 930 920 878
2034 885 929 966 1,074 1,016 833 836 905 943 850
2035 874 921 960 1,049 1,014 824 824 882 963 840
2036 864 912 953 1,025 1,012 817 822 860 958 851
2037 855 901 947 1,024 1,008 805 817 824 941 888
2038 846 892 938 1,022 992 801 814 802 920 925
2039 838 882 931 1,018 973 807 793 798 898 948
2040 831 873 923 1,012 954 804 786 788 875 965
2041 825 864 914 1,005 937 800 782 787 854 959
Table 15.2: Population by five-year age group, 2016–2041 — reference scenario
RAINY RIVER
Age Groups 50–54 to 90+ and Total for all age groups
Year 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80–84 85–89 90+ Total
2016 1,492 1,715 1,480 1,272 842 648 486 358 175 19,692
2017 1,421 1,697 1,543 1,289 898 666 475 360 198 19,670
2018 1,371 1,626 1,619 1,301 962 677 481 352 219 19,618
2019 1,307 1,582 1,636 1,348 1,018 686 504 346 229 19,544
2020 1,233 1,553 1,642 1,381 1,080 719 500 344 245 19,447
2021 1,217 1,474 1,664 1,393 1,154 723 520 337 258 19,328
2022 1,168 1,402 1,646 1,449 1,169 773 534 331 268 19,211
2023 1,170 1,351 1,576 1,517 1,181 832 541 336 271 19,096
2024 1,158 1,289 1,533 1,534 1,225 882 548 355 269 18,983
2025 1,160 1,216 1,504 1,543 1,255 937 575 353 278 18,869
2026 1,117 1,201 1,426 1,565 1,267 1,001 581 370 282 18,755
2027 1,124 1,155 1,355 1,549 1,319 1,016 626 380 285 18,641
2028 1,069 1,155 1,304 1,489 1,382 1,029 676 386 291 18,526
2029 1,031 1,144 1,244 1,449 1,400 1,071 717 397 300 18,410
2030 979 1,147 1,174 1,423 1,411 1,100 761 422 305 18,294
2031 963 1,107 1,160 1,349 1,433 1,117 816 428 320 18,177
2032 921 1,115 1,117 1,283 1,418 1,164 835 463 329 18,058
2033 920 1,062 1,119 1,236 1,365 1,217 851 504 334 17,938
2034 927 1,025 1,110 1,179 1,332 1,236 889 535 348 17,818
2035 927 977 1,112 1,113 1,314 1,248 916 571 366 17,695
2036 916 960 1,076 1,102 1,248 1,270 931 614 380 17,571
2037 910 921 1,082 1,062 1,187 1,260 975 631 407 17,445
2038 885 920 1,036 1,061 1,140 1,217 1,025 646 436 17,318
2039 859 927 1,006 1,053 1,086 1,190 1,044 678 463 17,192
2040 851 927 964 1,055 1,025 1,175 1,054 705 497 17,064
2041 863 916 951 1,024 1,014 1,116 1,074 720 531 16,936

Table 15.3: Population by five-year age group, 2016–2041 — reference scenario
THUNDER BAY
Age Groups 0–4 to 45–49
Year 0–4 5–9 10–14 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49
2016 7,078 7,051 7,173 8,065 9,880 9,957 8,815 8,335 8,600 9,599
2017 7,120 7,064 7,123 7,867 9,620 10,166 9,015 8,481 8,375 9,406
2018 7,169 7,109 7,096 7,767 9,263 10,298 9,199 8,554 8,273 9,280
2019 7,204 7,109 7,107 7,567 9,051 10,231 9,449 8,688 8,248 9,061
2020 7,214 7,105 7,177 7,441 8,721 10,081 9,683 8,727 8,306 8,878
2021 7,190 7,184 7,160 7,400 8,419 9,923 9,840 8,809 8,317 8,543
2022 7,220 7,212 7,157 7,351 8,204 9,616 9,983 8,968 8,438 8,319
2023 7,229 7,245 7,197 7,323 8,091 9,247 10,080 9,117 8,502 8,217
2024 7,217 7,268 7,193 7,335 7,900 9,013 10,004 9,333 8,620 8,191
2025 7,188 7,274 7,188 7,405 7,777 8,694 9,859 9,551 8,655 8,243
2026 7,141 7,248 7,265 7,399 7,737 8,408 9,719 9,707 8,737 8,260
2027 7,081 7,279 7,294 7,396 7,700 8,199 9,443 9,853 8,888 8,377
2028 7,005 7,292 7,326 7,436 7,683 8,082 9,106 9,959 9,028 8,445
2029 6,919 7,286 7,348 7,438 7,701 7,908 8,880 9,899 9,234 8,561
2030 6,825 7,261 7,352 7,437 7,777 7,795 8,582 9,765 9,446 8,599
2031 6,723 7,221 7,326 7,512 7,785 7,755 8,314 9,638 9,601 8,681
2032 6,620 7,166 7,359 7,545 7,781 7,730 8,114 9,383 9,748 8,826
2033 6,522 7,095 7,372 7,574 7,818 7,727 8,001 9,073 9,858 8,962
2034 6,433 7,013 7,367 7,592 7,824 7,746 7,846 8,857 9,811 9,163
2035 6,354 6,923 7,342 7,596 7,830 7,821 7,739 8,573 9,692 9,372
2036 6,286 6,827 7,304 7,572 7,900 7,837 7,704 8,316 9,574 9,526
2037 6,229 6,733 7,251 7,611 7,935 7,826 7,691 8,124 9,333 9,673
2038 6,181 6,643 7,183 7,632 7,962 7,858 7,698 8,012 9,039 9,785
2039 6,146 6,562 7,103 7,631 7,981 7,866 7,719 7,869 8,829 9,745
2040 6,124 6,488 7,016 7,608 7,985 7,876 7,792 7,770 8,558 9,636
2041 6,110 6,424 6,924 7,571 7,966 7,943 7,817 7,736 8,309 9,524
Table 15.3: Population by five-year age group, 2016–2041 — reference scenario
THUNDER BAY
Age Groups 50–54 to 90+ and Total for all age groups
Year 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80–84 85–89 90+ Total
2016 11,495 12,588 11,268 9,500 6,360 4,786 3,424 2,296 1,659 147,929
2017 11,058 12,459 11,583 9,614 6,965 4,913 3,480 2,297 1,689 148,295
2018 10,381 12,377 11,769 9,929 7,437 5,090 3,568 2,279 1,733 148,571
2019 9,917 12,142 11,909 10,309 7,838 5,232 3,700 2,320 1,729 148,811
2020 9,581 11,775 12,050 10,605 8,380 5,377 3,792 2,336 1,753 148,982
2021 9,486 11,315 12,257 10,765 8,795 5,641 3,884 2,377 1,776 149,081
2022 9,284 10,884 12,135 11,072 8,914 6,196 4,004 2,434 1,789 149,180
2023 9,152 10,222 12,062 11,261 9,217 6,632 4,169 2,511 1,803 149,277
2024 8,935 9,766 11,842 11,404 9,584 7,004 4,303 2,626 1,827 149,365
2025 8,754 9,436 11,498 11,552 9,874 7,496 4,437 2,707 1,853 149,441
2026 8,435 9,344 11,060 11,765 10,037 7,879 4,673 2,788 1,899 149,501
2027 8,223 9,152 10,648 11,663 10,340 8,004 5,162 2,886 1,952 149,540
2028 8,127 9,028 10,014 11,609 10,534 8,298 5,542 3,027 2,014 149,555
2029 8,106 8,821 9,574 11,413 10,686 8,649 5,868 3,148 2,103 149,542
2030 8,158 8,648 9,258 11,098 10,846 8,932 6,291 3,260 2,171 149,501
2031 8,181 8,340 9,175 10,686 11,058 9,100 6,628 3,453 2,252 149,429
2032 8,295 8,141 8,993 10,297 10,984 9,393 6,760 3,845 2,349 149,329
2033 8,366 8,050 8,876 9,697 10,951 9,596 7,033 4,149 2,479 149,199
2034 8,483 8,032 8,678 9,286 10,783 9,757 7,352 4,408 2,609 149,040
2035 8,523 8,087 8,514 8,988 10,505 9,927 7,618 4,735 2,712 148,851
2036 8,609 8,112 8,224 8,914 10,131 10,140 7,782 5,001 2,878 148,637
2037 8,752 8,225 8,035 8,748 9,771 10,092 8,060 5,129 3,181 148,399
2038 8,886 8,299 7,953 8,640 9,216 10,083 8,261 5,365 3,445 148,141
2039 9,082 8,417 7,938 8,457 8,842 9,948 8,424 5,631 3,673 147,863
2040 9,288 8,460 7,996 8,305 8,573 9,713 8,598 5,861 3,921 147,568
2041 9,443 8,547 8,024 8,035 8,514 9,385 8,808 6,010 4,168 147,258

Sources: Statistics Canada estimates, 2016, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.

Notes:

1. Population as of July 1.

2. Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.

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