Ontario Population Projections, 2018–2046
Table 2: Ontario population and selected characteristics under three scenarios, 2011–2046

Reference scenario

Table 2: Ontario population and selected characteristics, 2011–2046 — Reference scenario
Part A: Estimates
Year Total population
(Thousands)
Births
(Thousands)
Deaths
(Thousands)
Net migration4a
(Thousands)
Annual growth
(Per cent)
Median age
(Years)
Age group share (%)
0–14
Age group share (%)
15–64
Age group share (%)
65+
2011–12 13,261.4 141.0 88.9 77.2 1.0 39.8 16.6 69.1 14.2
2012–13 13,390.6 140.6 93.1 72.6 0.9 40.0 16.5 68.8 14.7
2013–14 13,510.8 140.2 94.3 60.9 0.8 40.3 16.4 68.5 15.2
2014–15 13,617.6 140.0 97.6 47.2 0.7 40.5 16.3 68.1 15.6
2015–16 13,707.1 139.9 97.2 125.5 1.2 40.7 16.2 67.8 16.0
2016–17 13,875.4 141.9 101.1 155.2 1.4 40.7 16.1 67.6 16.3
2017–18 14,071.4 145.2 104.5 210.6 1.8 40.7 16.0 67.4 16.6
Table 2: Ontario population and selected characteristics, 2011–2046 — Reference scenario
Part B: Projections
Year Total population
(Thousands)
Births
(Thousands)
Deaths
(Thousands)
Net migration4b
(Thousands)
Annual growth
(Per cent)
Median age
(Years)
Age group share (%)
0–14
Age group share (%)
15–64
Age group share (%)
65+
2018–192a 14,322.8 146.0 104.2 209.2 1.8 40.6 15.8 67.2 16.9
2019–20 14,573.8 149.4 105.9 213.6 1.8 40.5 15.7 67.1 17.3
2020–21 14,830.9 152.7 107.7 197.2 1.6 40.4 15.5 66.9 17.6
2021–22 15,073.3 155.7 109.4 180.3 1.5 40.4 15.4 66.6 18.0
2022–23 15,299.8 158.1 111.2 162.7 1.4 40.4 15.3 66.3 18.4
2023–24 15,509.4 160.0 113.0 149.4 1.3 40.5 15.3 66.0 18.8
2024–25 15,705.7 161.4 114.9 136.1 1.2 40.5 15.2 65.6 19.2
2025–26 15,888.4 162.5 116.8 136.1 1.1 40.7 15.2 65.1 19.7
2026–27 16,070.2 163.3 118.8 137.7 1.1 40.8 15.1 64.7 20.2
2027–28 16,252.4 164.0 120.8 139.3 1.1 40.9 15.1 64.3 20.6
2028–29 16,434.9 164.7 123.0 140.9 1.1 41.1 15.1 63.8 21.1
2029–30 16,617.5 165.3 125.3 142.6 1.1 41.2 15.1 63.4 21.5
2030–31 16,800.2 166.0 127.7 144.2 1.1 41.4 15.1 63.0 21.9
2031–32 16,982.6 166.8 130.1 145.8 1.1 41.5 15.1 62.7 22.2
2032–33 17,165.1 167.7 132.7 147.4 1.1 41.7 15.1 62.5 22.4
2033–34 17,347.6 168.8 135.4 149.1 1.1 41.8 15.0 62.3 22.6
2034–35 17,530.1 170.1 138.1 150.7 1.0 42.0 15.0 62.2 22.8
2035–36 17,712.8 171.5 141.0 152.5 1.0 42.1 15.0 62.0 23.0
2036–37 17,895.8 173.3 144.0 154.1 1.0 42.3 15.0 61.9 23.1
2037–38 18,079.2 175.1 147.0 155.8 1.0 42.4 14.9 61.8 23.2
2038–39 18,263.1 177.0 150.0 157.4 1.0 42.5 14.9 61.8 23.3
2039–40 18,447.5 179.0 153.1 159.2 1.0 42.6 14.8 61.8 23.4
2040–41 18,632.6 181.1 156.1 160.8 1.0 42.7 14.8 61.8 23.4
2041–42 18,818.4 183.2 159.2 162.5 1.0 42.8 14.8 61.8 23.4
2042–43 19,005.0 185.3 162.1 164.2 1.0 42.8 14.7 61.8 23.4
2043–44 19,192.4 187.3 165.0 165.9 1.0 42.9 14.7 61.9 23.4
2044–45 19,380.6 189.3 167.9 167.5 1.0 42.9 14.7 61.9 23.4
2045–46 19,569.6 191.2 170.6 169.2 1.0 42.9 14.7 61.9 23.4
2046 19,759.5 42.9 14.7 61.9 23.4

Low scenario

Table 2: Ontario population and selected characteristics, 2011–2046 — Low scenario
Part A: Estimates
Year Total population
(Thousands)
Births
(Thousands)
Deaths
(Thousands)
Net migration4c
(Thousands)
Annual growth
(Per cent)
Median age
(Years)
Age group share (%)
0–14
Age group share (%)
15–64
Age group share (%)
65+
2011–12 13,261.4 141.0 88.9 77.2 1.0 39.8 16.6 69.1 14.2
2012–13 13,390.6 140.6 93.1 72.6 0.9 40.0 16.5 68.8 14.7
2013–14 13,510.8 140.2 94.3 60.9 0.8 40.3 16.4 68.5 15.2
2014–15 13,617.6 140.0 97.6 47.2 0.7 40.5 16.3 68.1 15.6
2015–16 13,707.1 139.9 97.2 125.5 1.2 40.7 16.2 67.8 16.0
2016–17 13,875.4 141.9 101.1 155.2 1.4 40.7 16.1 67.6 16.3
2017–18 14,071.4 145.2 104.5 210.6 1.8 40.7 16.0 67.4 16.6
Table 2: Ontario population and selected characteristics, 2011–2046 — Low scenario
Part B: Projections
Year Total population
(Thousands)
Births
(Thousands)
Deaths
(Thousands)
Net migration4d
(Thousands)
Annual growth
(Per cent)
Median age
(Years)
Age group share (%)
0–14
Age group share (%)
15–64
Age group share (%)
65+
2018–192b 14,322.8 141.2 107.3 169.3 1.4 40.6 15.8 67.2 16.9
2019–20 14,525.9 142.9 109.3 171.4 1.4 40.5 15.6 67.1 17.3
2020–21 14,730.8 144.5 111.3 151.2 1.3 40.5 15.5 66.8 17.7
2021–22 14,915.3 145.7 113.3 131.6 1.1 40.6 15.4 66.6 18.1
2022–23 15,079.3 146.3 115.3 112.5 1.0 40.7 15.2 66.3 18.5
2023–24 15,222.7 146.4 117.3 99.3 0.8 40.8 15.1 66.0 19.0
2024–25 15,351.0 146.1 119.4 86.8 0.7 40.9 15.0 65.6 19.4
2025–26 15,464.6 145.4 121.5 85.0 0.7 41.1 14.9 65.2 19.9
2026–27 15,573.5 144.6 123.7 85.7 0.7 41.3 14.8 64.8 20.5
2027–28 15,680.2 143.7 125.9 86.5 0.7 41.5 14.7 64.4 21.0
2028–29 15,784.4 142.8 128.3 87.2 0.6 41.7 14.6 63.9 21.5
2029–30 15,886.1 141.9 130.7 87.9 0.6 41.9 14.5 63.5 22.0
2030–31 15,985.2 141.0 133.2 88.6 0.6 42.1 14.4 63.2 22.4
2031–32 16,081.6 140.3 135.8 89.3 0.6 42.3 14.3 62.9 22.8
2032–33 16,175.3 139.7 138.5 89.9 0.6 42.5 14.2 62.7 23.1
2033–34 16,266.4 139.3 141.3 90.6 0.5 42.7 14.1 62.6 23.3
2034–35 16,355.0 139.0 144.1 91.2 0.5 42.9 14.0 62.4 23.6
2035–36 16,441.1 138.9 147.0 91.8 0.5 43.1 13.9 62.3 23.8
2036–37 16,524.8 139.0 149.9 92.4 0.5 43.3 13.8 62.2 24.0
2037–38 16,606.3 139.2 152.9 93.0 0.5 43.5 13.7 62.1 24.2
2038–39 16,685.6 139.4 155.8 93.6 0.5 43.6 13.6 62.1 24.3
2039–40 16,762.8 139.7 158.8 94.2 0.4 43.8 13.5 62.1 24.4
2040–41 16,837.9 139.9 161.6 94.7 0.4 44.0 13.4 62.1 24.5
2041–42 16,910.9 140.2 164.4 95.2 0.4 44.1 13.3 62.1 24.6
2042–43 16,982.0 140.4 167.1 95.7 0.4 44.2 13.3 62.1 24.6
2043–44 17,051.0 140.5 169.7 96.2 0.4 44.3 13.2 62.1 24.7
2044–45 17,118.0 140.5 172.1 96.7 0.4 44.4 13.1 62.1 24.7
2045–46 17,183.0 140.3 174.4 97.1 0.4 44.5 13.1 62.1 24.8
2046 17,246.1 44.5 13.1 62.1 24.8

High scenario

Table 2: Ontario population and selected characteristics, 2011–2046 — High scenario
Part A: Estimates
Year Total population
(Thousands)
Births
(Thousands)
Deaths
(Thousands)
Net migration4e
(Thousands)
Annual growth
(Per cent)
Median age
(Years)
Age group share (%)
0–14
Age group share (%)
15–64
Age group share (%)
65+
2011–12 13,261.4 141.0 88.9 77.2 1.0 39.8 16.6 69.1 14.2
2012–13 13,390.6 140.6 93.1 72.6 0.9 40.0 16.5 68.8 14.7
2013–14 13,510.8 140.2 94.3 60.9 0.8 40.3 16.4 68.5 15.2
2014–15 13,617.6 140.0 97.6 47.2 0.7 40.5 16.3 68.1 15.6
2015–16 13,707.1 139.9 97.2 125.5 1.2 40.7 16.2 67.8 16.0
2016–17 13,875.4 141.9 101.1 155.2 1.4 40.7 16.1 67.6 16.3
2017–18 14,071.4 145.2 104.5 210.6 1.8 40.7 16.0 67.4 16.6
Table 2: Ontario population and selected characteristics, 2011–2046 — High scenario
Part B: Projections
Year Total population
(Thousands)
Births
(Thousands)
Deaths
(Thousands)
Net migration4f
(Thousands)
Annual growth
(Per cent)
Median age
(Years)
Age group share (%)
0–14
Age group share (%)
15–64
Age group share (%)
65+
2018–192c 14,322.8 150.9 100.5 249.2 2.1 40.6 15.8 67.2 16.9
2019–20 14,622.3 155.9 101.9 256.2 2.1 40.4 15.7 67.1 17.2
2020–21 14,932.6 161.1 103.3 243.7 2.0 40.3 15.6 66.9 17.6
2021–22 15,234.1 165.9 104.8 229.8 1.9 40.2 15.5 66.6 17.9
2022–23 15,525.0 170.3 106.3 214.1 1.8 40.2 15.5 66.3 18.3
2023–24 15,803.2 174.2 107.8 201.2 1.7 40.2 15.4 65.9 18.6
2024–25 16,070.7 177.6 109.4 187.4 1.6 40.2 15.4 65.5 19.0
2025–26 16,326.4 180.5 111.0 189.9 1.6 40.3 15.5 65.1 19.5
2026–27 16,585.8 183.3 112.7 192.8 1.6 40.3 15.5 64.6 19.9
2027–28 16,849.2 186.0 114.6 195.8 1.6 40.4 15.5 64.1 20.3
2028–29 17,116.5 188.5 116.5 198.9 1.6 40.5 15.6 63.7 20.7
2029–30 17,387.4 191.1 118.5 202.0 1.6 40.6 15.7 63.2 21.1
2030–31 17,661.9 193.6 120.7 205.1 1.6 40.7 15.7 62.8 21.5
2031–32 17,939.9 196.2 122.9 208.3 1.6 40.8 15.8 62.5 21.7
2032–33 18,221.4 199.0 125.3 211.5 1.6 41.0 15.9 62.2 21.9
2033–34 18,506.6 202.0 127.8 214.8 1.6 41.1 16.0 62.0 22.0
2034–35 18,795.6 205.3 130.5 218.1 1.6 41.2 16.0 61.8 22.1
2035–36 19,088.5 208.8 133.3 221.5 1.6 41.3 16.0 61.7 22.3
2036–37 19,385.6 212.6 136.2 224.9 1.6 41.4 16.1 61.6 22.4
2037–38 19,686.9 216.6 139.2 228.4 1.6 41.5 16.1 61.5 22.4
2038–39 19,992.8 220.8 142.3 232.0 1.6 41.5 16.1 61.5 22.5
2039–40 20,303.3 225.2 145.4 235.6 1.6 41.6 16.1 61.4 22.5
2040–41 20,618.6 229.7 148.6 239.2 1.6 41.6 16.1 61.4 22.5
2041–42 20,938.9 234.4 151.9 242.9 1.6 41.6 16.1 61.4 22.4
2042–43 21,264.4 239.1 155.1 246.7 1.6 41.6 16.1 61.5 22.4
2043–44 21,595.1 243.8 158.3 250.5 1.6 41.6 16.2 61.5 22.4
2044–45 21,931.2 248.6 161.4 254.4 1.6 41.6 16.2 61.5 22.3
2045–46 22,272.7 253.5 164.6 258.3 1.6 41.5 16.2 61.5 22.3
2046 22,619.9 41.5 16.3 61.5 22.2

Sources: Statistics Canada estimates, 2011-2018, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.

Notes:

1. Population and age structure are for the beginning of each Census year, i.e., July 1.

2. [2a], [2b], [2c] For 2018-19, population and age structure are Statistics Canada estimates for July 1, 2018.

3. Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.

4. [4a], [4b], [4c], [4d], [4e], [4f] For historical components of demographic growth, Statistics Canada's residual deviation is included in net migration.

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