Ontario Population Projections Update, 2017–2041
Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario under three scenarios, 2006–2041

Reference scenario

Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2006–2041 — Reference scenario
Part A: Estimates
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3a Growth
No.
Growth
%
2006–07 12,661,566 136,980 86,811 50,169 115,445 20,218 2,043 97,270 58,791 78,838 -20,047 52,460 102,629 0.8
2007–08 12,764,195 140,547 87,502 53,045 115,051 20,796 10,712 104,967 61,718 76,468 -14,750 65,385 118,430 0.9
2008–09 12,882,625 140,326 88,359 51,967 105,423 18,425 16,461 103,459 57,458 73,059 -15,601 63,095 115,062 0.9
2009–10 12,997,687 139,771 87,602 52,169 116,572 14,735 12,795 114,632 59,741 64,403 -4,662 85,207 137,376 1.1
2010–11 13,135,063 139,448 90,857 48,591 105,015 14,539 14,657 105,133 58,317 62,324 -4,007 79,890 128,481 1.0
2011–12 13,263,544 140,999 88,466 52,533 101,287 17,288 24,237 108,236 60,459 71,070 -10,611 97,625 150,158 1.1
2012–13 13,413,702 140,601 93,063 47,538 105,910 16,437 18,942 108,415 54,678 68,579 -13,901 94,514 142,052 1.1
2013–14 13,555,754 140,537 95,087 45,450 101,913 18,688 10,560 93,785 57,415 71,979 -14,564 79,221 124,671 0.9
2014–15 13,680,425 141,888 98,408 43,480 89,704 17,509 2,192 74,387 62,874 71,569 -8,695 65,692 109,172 0.8
2015–16 13,789,597 143,574 101,795 41,779 120,338 17,619 33,148 135,867 71,790 62,713 9,077 144,944 186,723 1.4
2016–17 13,976,320 146,659 105,313 41,346 98,409 17,675 69,295 150,029 83,913 58,224 25,689 175,718 217,064 1.6
Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2006–2041 — Reference scenario
Part B: Projections
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3b Growth
No.
Growth
%
2017–18 14,193,384 146,698 99,580 47,118 127,741 17,674 69,998 180,065 75,999 53,996 22,003 202,064 249,182 1.8
2018–19 14,442,566 150,396 101,301 49,095 129,981 17,933 40,001 152,049 73,247 56,748 16,499 168,548 217,643 1.5
2019–20 14,660,209 153,306 102,991 50,315 131,940 18,192 29,169 142,917 70,497 59,500 10,997 153,919 204,234 1.4
2020–21 14,864,443 155,762 104,659 51,103 133,034 18,436 18,335 132,933 67,750 62,251 5,499 138,432 189,535 1.3
2021–22 15,053,978 157,869 106,309 51,560 133,982 18,659 7,498 122,821 65,000 65,004 -4 122,817 174,377 1.2
2022–23 15,228,355 159,565 107,963 51,602 134,768 18,875 7,500 123,393 65,000 65,002 -2 123,395 174,997 1.1
2023–24 15,403,352 161,002 109,652 51,350 135,547 19,075 7,496 123,968 65,000 65,002 -2 123,975 175,325 1.1
2024–25 15,578,677 162,269 111,388 50,881 136,313 19,257 7,504 124,560 65,000 65,002 -2 124,554 175,435 1.1
2025–26 15,754,112 163,358 113,202 50,156 137,058 19,424 7,499 125,133 65,000 65,001 -1 125,139 175,295 1.1
2026–27 15,929,407 164,244 115,090 49,154 137,788 19,581 7,499 125,706 65,000 64,999 1 125,706 174,860 1.1
2027–28 16,104,267 164,956 117,076 47,880 138,495 19,731 7,504 126,268 65,000 65,000 0 126,262 174,142 1.1
2028–29 16,278,409 165,544 119,164 46,380 139,182 19,872 7,496 126,806 65,000 64,997 3 126,807 173,187 1.1
2029–30 16,451,596 166,032 121,372 44,660 139,841 20,010 7,504 127,335 65,000 65,000 0 127,331 171,991 1.0
2030–31 16,623,587 166,486 123,697 42,789 141,303 20,144 7,497 128,656 65,000 64,999 1 128,663 171,452 1.0
2031–32 16,795,039 167,011 126,130 40,881 142,757 20,271 7,498 129,984 65,000 64,997 3 129,991 170,872 1.0
2032–33 16,965,911 167,558 128,682 38,876 144,208 20,393 7,503 131,318 65,000 65,003 -3 131,318 170,194 1.0
2033–34 17,136,105 168,190 131,362 36,828 145,655 20,509 7,498 132,644 65,000 64,999 1 132,643 169,471 1.0
2034–35 17,305,576 168,951 134,172 34,779 147,096 20,621 7,501 133,976 65,000 65,001 -1 133,976 168,755 1.0
2035–36 17,474,331 169,892 137,081 32,811 148,534 20,731 7,502 135,305 65,000 65,002 -2 135,300 168,111 1.0
2036–37 17,642,442 171,031 140,081 30,950 149,962 20,837 7,496 136,621 65,000 64,998 2 136,621 167,571 0.9
2037–38 17,810,013 172,398 143,151 29,247 151,388 20,937 7,501 137,952 65,000 64,999 1 137,945 167,192 0.9
2038–39 17,977,205 173,973 146,297 27,676 152,805 21,044 7,499 139,260 65,000 64,999 1 139,259 166,935 0.9
2039–40 18,144,140 175,735 149,478 26,257 154,227 21,152 7,500 140,575 65,000 64,998 2 140,568 166,825 0.9
2040–41 18,310,965 177,661 152,666 24,995 155,640 21,268 7,501 141,873 65,000 65,000 0 141,873 166,868 0.9
2041 18,477,833

Low scenario

Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2006–2041 — Low scenario
Part A: Estimates
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3c Growth
No.
Growth
%
2006–07 12,661,566 136,980 86,811 50,169 115,445 20,218 2,043 97,270 58,791 78,838 -20,047 52,460 102,629 0.8
2007–08 12,764,195 140,547 87,502 53,045 115,051 20,796 10,712 104,967 61,718 76,468 -14,750 65,385 118,430 0.9
2008–09 12,882,625 140,326 88,359 51,967 105,423 18,425 16,461 103,459 57,458 73,059 -15,601 63,095 115,062 0.9
2009–10 12,997,687 139,771 87,602 52,169 116,572 14,735 12,795 114,632 59,741 64,403 -4,662 85,207 137,376 1.1
2010–11 13,135,063 139,448 90,857 48,591 105,015 14,539 14,657 105,133 58,317 62,324 -4,007 79,890 128,481 1.0
2011–12 13,263,544 140,999 88,466 52,533 101,287 17,288 24,237 108,236 60,459 71,070 -10,611 97,625 150,158 1.1
2012–13 13,413,702 140,601 93,063 47,538 105,910 16,437 18,942 108,415 54,678 68,579 -13,901 94,514 142,052 1.1
2013–14 13,555,754 140,537 95,087 45,450 101,913 18,688 10,560 93,785 57,415 71,979 -14,564 79,221 124,671 0.9
2014–15 13,680,425 141,888 98,408 43,480 89,704 17,509 2,192 74,387 62,874 71,569 -8,695 65,692 109,172 0.8
2015–16 13,789,597 143,574 101,795 41,779 120,338 17,619 33,148 135,867 71,790 62,713 9,077 144,944 186,723 1.4
2016–17 13,976,320 146,659 105,313 41,346 98,409 17,675 69,295 150,029 83,913 58,224 25,689 175,718 217,064 1.6
Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2006–2041 — Low scenario
Part B: Projections
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3d Growth
No.
Growth
%
2017–18 14,193,384 141,777 104,848 36,929 106,451 23,217 52,497 135,731 70,500 59,500 11,000 146,730 183,659 1.3
2018–19 14,377,043 143,829 106,662 37,167 107,206 23,448 30,000 113,758 69,102 60,901 8,201 121,959 159,126 1.1
2019–20 14,536,169 145,278 108,449 36,829 107,759 23,662 21,880 105,977 67,802 62,299 5,503 111,474 148,303 1.0
2020–21 14,684,472 146,358 110,215 36,143 108,220 23,869 13,750 98,101 65,299 64,797 502 98,600 134,743 0.9
2021–22 14,819,215 146,981 111,961 35,020 108,565 24,046 2,500 87,019 62,498 67,501 -5,003 82,021 117,041 0.8
2022–23 14,936,256 147,086 113,718 33,368 108,775 24,204 2,500 87,071 62,498 67,500 -5,002 82,071 115,439 0.8
2023–24 15,051,695 146,951 115,508 31,443 108,961 24,347 2,500 87,114 62,498 67,502 -5,004 82,115 113,558 0.8
2024–25 15,165,253 146,562 117,355 29,207 109,121 24,463 2,500 87,158 62,498 67,501 -5,003 82,161 111,368 0.7
2025–26 15,276,621 145,916 119,267 26,649 109,260 24,560 2,500 87,200 62,498 67,501 -5,003 82,208 108,857 0.7
2026–27 15,385,478 145,019 121,269 23,750 109,369 24,639 2,500 87,230 62,498 67,502 -5,004 82,235 105,985 0.7
2027–28 15,491,463 143,899 123,366 20,533 109,448 24,704 2,500 87,244 62,498 67,502 -5,004 82,246 102,779 0.7
2028–29 15,594,242 142,598 125,555 17,043 109,495 24,758 2,500 87,237 62,498 67,500 -5,002 82,237 99,280 0.6
2029–30 15,693,522 141,162 127,869 13,293 109,510 24,812 2,500 87,198 62,498 67,497 -4,999 82,202 95,495 0.6
2030–31 15,789,017 139,646 130,281 9,365 109,489 24,852 2,500 87,137 62,498 67,499 -5,001 82,145 91,510 0.6
2031–32 15,880,527 138,131 132,784 5,347 109,437 24,882 2,500 87,055 62,498 67,498 -5,000 82,051 87,398 0.6
2032–33 15,967,925 136,669 135,387 1,282 109,345 24,906 2,500 86,939 62,498 67,497 -4,999 81,937 83,219 0.5
2033–34 16,051,144 135,312 138,106 -2,794 109,217 24,923 2,500 86,794 62,498 67,501 -5,003 81,793 78,999 0.5
2034–35 16,130,143 134,094 140,925 -6,831 109,054 24,930 2,500 86,624 62,498 67,500 -5,002 81,622 74,791 0.5
2035–36 16,204,934 133,041 143,812 -10,771 108,856 24,941 2,500 86,415 62,498 67,496 -4,998 81,420 70,649 0.4
2036–37 16,275,583 132,147 146,752 -14,605 108,623 24,935 2,500 86,188 62,498 67,501 -5,003 81,192 66,587 0.4
2037–38 16,342,170 131,404 149,727 -18,323 108,356 24,916 2,500 85,940 62,498 67,503 -5,005 80,940 62,617 0.4
2038–39 16,404,787 130,795 152,724 -21,929 108,057 24,905 2,500 85,652 62,498 67,502 -5,004 80,651 58,722 0.4
2039–40 16,463,509 130,289 155,702 -25,413 107,732 24,889 2,500 85,343 62,498 67,502 -5,004 80,337 54,924 0.3
2040–41 16,518,433 129,865 158,665 -28,800 107,372 24,878 2,500 84,994 62,498 67,501 -5,003 79,991 51,191 0.3
2041 16,569,624

High scenario

Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2006–2041 — High scenario
Part A: Estimates
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3e Growth
No.
Growth
%
2006–07 12,661,566 136,980 86,811 50,169 115,445 20,218 2,043 97,270 58,791 78,838 -20,047 52,460 102,629 0.8
2007–08 12,764,195 140,547 87,502 53,045 115,051 20,796 10,712 104,967 61,718 76,468 -14,750 65,385 118,430 0.9
2008–09 12,882,625 140,326 88,359 51,967 105,423 18,425 16,461 103,459 57,458 73,059 -15,601 63,095 115,062 0.9
2009–10 12,997,687 139,771 87,602 52,169 116,572 14,735 12,795 114,632 59,741 64,403 -4,662 85,207 137,376 1.1
2010–11 13,135,063 139,448 90,857 48,591 105,015 14,539 14,657 105,133 58,317 62,324 -4,007 79,890 128,481 1.0
2011–12 13,263,544 140,999 88,466 52,533 101,287 17,288 24,237 108,236 60,459 71,070 -10,611 97,625 150,158 1.1
2012–13 13,413,702 140,601 93,063 47,538 105,910 16,437 18,942 108,415 54,678 68,579 -13,901 94,514 142,052 1.1
2013–14 13,555,754 140,537 95,087 45,450 101,913 18,688 10,560 93,785 57,415 71,979 -14,564 79,221 124,671 0.9
2014–15 13,680,425 141,888 98,408 43,480 89,704 17,509 2,192 74,387 62,874 71,569 -8,695 65,692 109,172 0.8
2015–16 13,789,597 143,574 101,795 41,779 120,338 17,619 33,148 135,867 71,790 62,713 9,077 144,944 186,723 1.4
2016–17 13,976,320 146,659 105,313 41,346 98,409 17,675 69,295 150,029 83,913 58,224 25,689 175,718 217,064 1.6
Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2006–2041 — High scenario
Part B: Projections
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3f Growth
No.
Growth
%
2017–18 14,193,384 151,617 94,933 56,684 149,030 12,086 87,497 224,441 83,801 46,300 32,996 257,445 314,129 2.2
2018–19 14,507,513 158,387 96,356 62,031 152,330 12,331 50,000 189,999 74,399 55,596 24,805 214,795 276,826 1.9
2019–20 14,784,339 164,256 97,758 66,498 155,236 12,570 36,460 179,126 70,600 59,403 16,494 195,621 262,119 1.8
2020–21 15,046,458 169,637 99,144 70,493 157,991 12,805 22,920 168,106 67,499 62,498 10,500 178,601 249,094 1.7
2021–22 15,295,552 174,491 100,525 73,966 160,603 13,038 12,500 160,065 67,499 62,500 4,998 165,068 239,034 1.6
2022–23 15,534,586 178,839 101,919 76,920 163,115 13,260 12,500 162,355 67,499 62,499 5,001 167,354 244,274 1.6
2023–24 15,778,860 182,970 103,360 79,610 165,676 13,479 12,500 164,697 67,499 62,498 4,997 169,700 249,310 1.6
2024–25 16,028,170 186,823 104,867 81,956 168,299 13,689 12,500 167,110 67,499 62,500 4,998 172,111 254,067 1.6
2025–26 16,282,237 190,382 106,435 83,947 170,967 13,889 12,500 169,578 67,499 62,501 4,999 174,576 258,523 1.6
2026–27 16,540,760 193,627 108,094 85,533 173,678 14,083 12,500 172,095 67,499 62,499 5,002 177,093 262,626 1.6
2027–28 16,803,386 196,571 109,840 86,731 176,433 14,279 12,500 174,654 67,499 62,497 5,002 179,655 266,386 1.6
2028–29 17,069,772 199,250 111,704 87,546 179,232 14,469 12,500 177,263 67,499 62,499 4,998 182,264 269,810 1.6
2029–30 17,339,582 201,717 113,682 88,035 182,063 14,664 12,500 179,899 67,499 62,501 5,000 184,902 272,937 1.6
2030–31 17,612,519 204,053 115,812 88,241 184,932 14,850 12,500 182,582 67,499 62,500 5,004 187,587 275,828 1.6
2031–32 17,888,347 206,328 118,048 88,280 187,823 15,031 12,500 185,292 67,499 62,501 5,001 190,287 278,567 1.6
2032–33 18,166,914 208,672 120,452 88,220 190,757 15,213 12,500 188,044 67,499 62,500 5,001 193,050 281,270 1.5
2033–34 18,448,184 211,166 122,973 88,193 193,709 15,384 12,500 190,825 67,499 62,503 5,001 195,819 284,012 1.5
2034–35 18,732,196 213,873 125,666 88,207 196,685 15,554 12,500 193,631 67,499 62,499 5,002 198,638 286,845 1.5
2035–36 19,019,041 216,849 128,485 88,364 199,699 15,713 12,500 196,486 67,499 62,501 4,997 201,483 289,847 1.5
2036–37 19,308,888 220,122 131,427 88,695 202,743 15,868 12,500 199,375 67,499 62,500 5,002 204,372 293,067 1.5
2037–38 19,601,955 223,715 134,476 89,239 205,824 16,025 12,500 202,299 67,499 62,499 5,000 207,297 296,536 1.5
2038–39 19,898,491 227,624 137,653 89,971 208,932 16,184 12,500 205,248 67,499 62,500 5,005 210,251 300,222 1.5
2039–40 20,198,713 231,835 140,908 90,927 212,085 16,344 12,500 208,241 67,499 62,502 5,005 213,238 304,165 1.5
2040–41 20,502,878 236,322 144,247 92,075 215,282 16,517 12,500 211,265 67,499 62,499 4,999 216,262 308,337 1.5
2041 20,811,215

Sources: Statistics Canada estimates, 2006-2017, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.

Notes:

1. Population age structure is for the beginning of each Census year, i.e., July 1.

2. For 2017-18, population and age structure are Statistics Canada estimates for July 1, 2017.

3. [3a], [3b], [3c], [3d], [3e], [3f] For historical components of demographic growth, Statistics Canada's residual deviation is included in net migration.

LIST OF TABLES