Ontario Population Projections, 2018–2046
Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario under three scenarios, 2011–2046

Reference scenario

Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2011–2046 — Reference scenario
Part A: Estimates
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3a Growth
No.
Growth
%
2011–12 13,261,381 140,999 88,928 52,071 101,262 25,387 24,073 99,948 60,459 71,070 −10,611 77,180 129,251 1.0
2012–13 13,390,632 140,601 93,063 47,538 105,849 23,663 16,449 98,635 54,678 68,579 −13,901 72,611 120,149 0.9
2013–14 13,510,781 140,171 94,330 45,841 101,843 24,917 10,692 87,618 57,415 71,979 −14,564 60,931 106,772 0.8
2014–15 13,617,553 139,963 97,645 42,318 89,672 23,801 2,195 68,066 62,874 71,569 −8,695 47,247 89,565 0.7
2015–16 13,707,118 139,924 97,163 42,761 120,346 24,828 31,349 126,867 71,790 62,713 9,077 125,515 168,276 1.2
2016–17 13,875,394 141,933 101,099 40,834 98,428 25,124 68,531 141,835 71,717 58,335 13,382 155,217 196,051 1.4
2017–18 14,071,445 145,214 104,467 40,747 132,417 25,433 85,695 192,679 79,927 62,041 17,886 210,565 251,312 1.8
Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2011–2046 — Reference scenario
Part B: Projections
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3b Growth
No.
Growth
%
2018–19 14,322,757 146,007 104,157 41,850 136,640 25,430 80,000 191,206 80,000 62,000 18,000 209,205 251,055 1.8
2019–20 14,573,812 149,391 105,892 43,499 145,884 25,781 80,000 200,108 76,250 62,750 13,500 213,603 257,102 1.8
2020–21 14,830,914 152,749 107,651 45,098 147,864 26,114 66,500 188,253 72,500 63,500 9,000 197,248 242,346 1.6
2021–22 15,073,260 155,650 109,407 46,243 149,223 26,433 53,000 175,783 68,750 64,250 4,500 180,289 226,532 1.5
2022–23 15,299,792 158,064 111,195 46,869 149,937 26,736 39,500 162,706 65,000 65,000 0 162,704 209,573 1.4
2023–24 15,509,365 159,962 113,005 46,957 150,443 27,023 26,000 149,418 65,000 65,000 0 149,420 196,377 1.3
2024–25 15,705,742 161,434 114,858 46,576 150,777 27,296 12,600 136,083 65,000 65,000 0 136,078 182,654 1.2
2025–26 15,888,396 162,457 116,775 45,682 150,943 27,565 12,700 136,077 65,000 65,000 0 136,079 181,761 1.1
2026–27 16,070,157 163,290 118,767 44,523 152,662 27,827 12,900 137,735 65,000 65,000 0 137,741 182,264 1.1
2027–28 16,252,421 164,034 120,832 43,202 154,398 28,087 13,000 139,310 65,000 65,000 0 139,312 182,514 1.1
2028–29 16,434,935 164,716 123,002 41,714 156,129 28,348 13,100 140,878 65,000 65,000 0 140,886 182,600 1.1
2029–30 16,617,535 165,347 125,272 40,075 157,868 28,603 13,300 142,570 65,000 65,000 0 142,564 182,639 1.1
2030–31 16,800,174 165,973 127,652 38,321 159,599 28,851 13,400 144,147 65,000 65,000 0 144,150 182,471 1.1
2031–32 16,982,645 166,764 130,113 36,651 161,334 29,099 13,600 145,836 65,000 65,000 0 145,832 182,483 1.1
2032–33 17,165,128 167,691 132,681 35,010 163,071 29,337 13,700 147,435 65,000 65,000 0 147,428 182,438 1.1
2033–34 17,347,566 168,778 135,355 33,423 164,800 29,569 13,900 149,128 65,000 65,000 0 149,133 182,556 1.1
2034–35 17,530,122 170,061 138,137 31,924 166,535 29,794 14,000 150,742 65,000 65,000 0 150,739 182,663 1.0
2035–36 17,712,785 171,547 141,005 30,542 168,274 30,017 14,200 152,457 65,000 65,000 0 152,457 182,999 1.0
2036–37 17,895,784 173,253 143,956 29,297 170,012 30,234 14,300 154,076 65,000 65,000 0 154,078 183,375 1.0
2037–38 18,079,159 175,069 146,965 28,104 171,750 30,440 14,500 155,810 65,000 65,000 0 155,809 183,913 1.0
2038–39 18,263,072 176,994 150,010 26,984 173,498 30,659 14,600 157,442 65,000 65,000 0 157,441 184,425 1.0
2039–40 18,447,497 179,011 153,069 25,942 175,249 30,873 14,800 159,172 65,000 65,000 0 159,177 185,119 1.0
2040–41 18,632,616 181,093 156,121 24,972 177,012 31,098 14,900 160,816 65,000 65,000 0 160,814 185,786 1.0
2041–42 18,818,402 183,235 159,158 24,077 178,774 31,330 15,100 162,545 65,000 65,000 0 162,543 186,620 1.0
2042–43 19,005,022 185,320 162,127 23,193 180,548 31,571 15,200 164,175 65,000 65,000 0 164,173 187,366 1.0
2043–44 19,192,388 187,341 165,031 22,310 182,326 31,827 15,400 165,897 65,000 65,000 0 165,899 188,209 1.0
2044–45 19,380,597 189,307 167,854 21,453 184,115 32,088 15,500 167,528 65,000 65,000 0 167,524 188,977 1.0
2045–46 19,569,574 191,241 170,582 20,659 185,910 32,370 15,700 169,245 65,000 65,000 0 169,239 189,898 1.0
2046 19,759,472

Low scenario

Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2011–2046 — Low scenario
Part A: Estimates
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3c Growth
No.
Growth
%
2011–12 13,261,381 140,999 88,928 52,071 101,262 25,387 24,073 99,948 60,459 71,070 −10,611 77,180 129,251 1.0
2012–13 13,390,632 140,601 93,063 47,538 105,849 23,663 16,449 98,635 54,678 68,579 −13,901 72,611 120,149 0.9
2013–14 13,510,781 140,171 94,330 45,841 101,843 24,917 10,692 87,618 57,415 71,979 −14,564 60,931 106,772 0.8
2014–15 13,617,553 139,963 97,645 42,318 89,672 23,801 2,195 68,066 62,874 71,569 −8,695 47,247 89,565 0.7
2015–16 13,707,118 139,924 97,163 42,761 120,346 24,828 31,349 126,867 71,790 62,713 9,077 125,515 168,276 1.2
2016–17 13,875,394 141,933 101,099 40,834 98,428 25,124 68,531 141,835 71,717 58,335 13,382 155,217 196,051 1.4
2017–18 14,071,445 145,214 104,467 40,747 132,417 25,433 85,695 192,679 79,927 62,041 17,886 210,565 251,312 1.8
Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2011–2046 — Low scenario
Part B: Projections
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3d Growth
No.
Growth
%
2018–19 14,322,757 141,161 107,345 33,816 115,205 33,175 72,000 154,030 78,652 63,350 15,302 169,329 203,145 1.4
2019–20 14,525,902 142,898 109,325 33,573 122,628 33,479 72,000 161,149 74,614 64,388 10,226 171,373 204,946 1.4
2020–21 14,730,848 144,549 111,321 33,228 122,610 33,755 57,190 146,045 70,577 65,427 5,150 151,197 184,425 1.3
2021–22 14,915,273 145,672 113,306 32,366 122,094 33,993 43,460 131,561 66,538 66,463 75 131,634 164,000 1.1
2022–23 15,079,273 146,281 115,306 30,975 120,850 34,194 30,810 117,466 62,500 67,500 −5,000 112,469 143,444 1.0
2023–24 15,222,717 146,387 117,316 29,071 119,393 34,370 19,240 104,263 62,500 67,500 −5,000 99,258 128,329 0.8
2024–25 15,351,046 146,097 119,382 26,715 117,768 34,526 8,597 91,839 62,500 67,500 −5,000 86,834 113,549 0.7
2025–26 15,464,595 145,438 121,493 23,945 115,982 34,663 8,660 89,979 62,500 67,500 −5,000 84,979 108,924 0.7
2026–27 15,573,519 144,604 123,673 20,931 116,800 34,793 8,721 90,728 62,500 67,500 −5,000 85,731 106,662 0.7
2027–28 15,680,181 143,711 125,936 17,775 117,604 34,917 8,781 91,468 62,500 67,500 −5,000 86,471 104,246 0.7
2028–29 15,784,427 142,799 128,274 14,525 118,386 35,037 8,839 92,188 62,500 67,500 −5,000 87,192 101,717 0.6
2029–30 15,886,144 141,878 130,699 11,179 119,145 35,148 8,896 92,893 62,500 67,500 −5,000 87,898 99,077 0.6
2030–31 15,985,221 140,985 133,212 7,773 119,892 35,252 8,951 93,591 62,500 67,500 −5,000 88,588 96,361 0.6
2031–32 16,081,582 140,260 135,825 4,435 120,608 35,353 9,005 94,260 62,500 67,500 −5,000 89,269 93,704 0.6
2032–33 16,175,286 139,672 138,499 1,173 121,318 35,443 9,057 94,932 62,500 67,500 −5,000 89,927 91,100 0.6
2033–34 16,266,386 139,250 141,259 −2,009 121,997 35,528 9,108 95,577 62,500 67,500 −5,000 90,579 88,570 0.5
2034–35 16,354,956 138,992 144,097 −5,105 122,663 35,608 9,157 96,212 62,500 67,500 −5,000 91,209 86,104 0.5
2035–36 16,441,060 138,906 146,993 −8,087 123,305 35,680 9,205 96,830 62,500 67,500 −5,000 91,833 83,746 0.5
2036–37 16,524,806 138,998 149,929 −10,931 123,933 35,750 9,252 97,435 62,500 67,500 −5,000 92,436 81,505 0.5
2037–38 16,606,311 139,164 152,878 −13,714 124,547 35,814 9,298 98,031 62,500 67,500 −5,000 93,034 79,320 0.5
2038–39 16,685,631 139,384 155,827 −16,443 125,144 35,866 9,342 98,620 62,500 67,500 −5,000 93,611 77,168 0.5
2039–40 16,762,799 139,658 158,752 −19,094 125,722 35,935 9,385 99,172 62,500 67,500 −5,000 94,174 75,080 0.4
2040–41 16,837,879 139,938 161,619 −21,681 126,286 35,999 9,427 99,714 62,500 67,500 −5,000 94,712 73,031 0.4
2041–42 16,910,910 140,216 164,406 −24,190 126,829 36,069 9,468 100,228 62,500 67,500 −5,000 95,231 71,041 0.4
2042–43 16,981,951 140,398 167,095 −26,697 127,364 36,139 9,508 100,733 62,500 67,500 −5,000 95,731 69,034 0.4
2043–44 17,050,985 140,478 169,667 −29,189 127,883 36,217 9,546 101,212 62,500 67,500 −5,000 96,211 67,022 0.4
2044–45 17,118,007 140,456 172,111 −31,655 128,386 36,293 9,584 101,677 62,500 67,500 −5,000 96,679 65,024 0.4
2045–46 17,183,031 140,342 174,434 −34,092 128,872 36,374 9,620 102,118 62,500 67,500 −5,000 97,116 63,024 0.4
2046 17,246,055

High scenario

Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2011–2046 — High scenario
Part A: Estimates
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3e Growth
No.
Growth
%
2011–12 13,261,381 140,999 88,928 52,071 101,262 25,387 24,073 99,948 60,459 71,070 −10,611 77,180 129,251 1.0
2012–13 13,390,632 140,601 93,063 47,538 105,849 23,663 16,449 98,635 54,678 68,579 −13,901 72,611 120,149 0.9
2013–14 13,510,781 140,171 94,330 45,841 101,843 24,917 10,692 87,618 57,415 71,979 −14,564 60,931 106,772 0.8
2014–15 13,617,553 139,963 97,645 42,318 89,672 23,801 2,195 68,066 62,874 71,569 −8,695 47,247 89,565 0.7
2015–16 13,707,118 139,924 97,163 42,761 120,346 24,828 31,349 126,867 71,790 62,713 9,077 125,515 168,276 1.2
2016–17 13,875,394 141,933 101,099 40,834 98,428 25,124 68,531 141,835 71,717 58,335 13,382 155,217 196,051 1.4
2017–18 14,071,445 145,214 104,467 40,747 132,417 25,433 85,695 192,679 79,927 62,041 17,886 210,565 251,312 1.8
Table 3: Components of demographic growth for Ontario, 2011–2046 — High scenario
Part B: Projections
Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Immi-gration Emi-gration Net
change
in Non-Permanent Residents
Net Inter-national Migration Inter-
provincial Migration
In
Inter-
provincial Migration
Out
Inter-
provincial Migration
Net
Net Migration3f Growth
No.
Growth
%
2018–19 14,322,757 150,855 100,510 50,345 158,179 17,631 88,000 228,548 81,351 60,649 20,702 249,242 299,587 2.1
2019–20 14,622,344 155,946 101,904 54,042 169,396 17,960 88,000 239,436 77,890 61,114 16,776 256,214 310,256 2.1
2020–21 14,932,600 161,115 103,330 57,785 173,352 18,286 75,810 230,876 74,427 61,575 12,852 243,725 301,510 2.0
2021–22 15,234,110 165,911 104,781 61,130 176,933 18,606 62,540 220,867 70,961 62,036 8,925 229,793 290,923 1.9
2022–23 15,525,033 170,284 106,267 64,017 179,868 18,920 48,190 209,138 67,500 62,500 5,000 214,141 278,158 1.8
2023–24 15,803,191 174,162 107,798 66,364 182,639 19,230 32,760 196,169 67,500 62,500 5,000 201,176 267,540 1.7
2024–25 16,070,731 177,592 109,366 68,226 185,275 19,535 16,714 182,454 67,500 62,500 5,000 187,446 255,672 1.6
2025–26 16,326,403 180,540 111,006 69,534 187,749 19,842 16,979 184,886 67,500 62,500 5,000 189,888 259,422 1.6
2026–27 16,585,825 183,307 112,737 70,570 190,735 20,151 17,249 187,833 67,500 62,500 5,000 192,835 263,405 1.6
2027–28 16,849,230 185,961 114,556 71,405 193,767 20,459 17,522 190,830 67,500 62,500 5,000 195,830 267,235 1.6
2028–29 17,116,465 188,535 116,486 72,049 196,840 20,766 17,800 193,874 67,500 62,500 5,000 198,873 270,922 1.6
2029–30 17,387,387 191,054 118,520 72,534 199,950 21,075 18,081 196,956 67,500 62,500 5,000 201,967 274,501 1.6
2030–31 17,661,888 193,550 120,671 72,879 203,111 21,382 18,366 200,095 67,500 62,500 5,000 205,092 277,971 1.6
2031–32 17,939,859 196,221 122,938 73,283 206,307 21,686 18,655 203,276 67,500 62,500 5,000 208,278 281,561 1.6
2032–33 18,221,420 199,037 125,324 73,713 209,551 21,986 18,947 206,512 67,500 62,500 5,000 211,510 285,223 1.6
2033–34 18,506,643 202,048 127,849 74,199 212,828 22,281 19,244 209,791 67,500 62,500 5,000 214,786 288,985 1.6
2034–35 18,795,628 205,299 130,515 74,784 216,148 22,574 19,543 213,117 67,500 62,500 5,000 218,121 292,905 1.6
2035–36 19,088,533 208,816 133,293 75,523 219,519 22,859 19,847 216,507 67,500 62,500 5,000 221,504 297,027 1.6
2036–37 19,385,560 212,629 136,199 76,430 222,934 23,141 20,156 219,949 67,500 62,500 5,000 224,949 301,379 1.6
2037–38 19,686,939 216,626 139,202 77,424 226,400 23,424 20,468 223,444 67,500 62,500 5,000 228,448 305,872 1.6
2038–39 19,992,811 220,806 142,284 78,522 229,919 23,711 20,786 226,994 67,500 62,500 5,000 231,996 310,518 1.6
2039–40 20,303,329 225,165 145,441 79,724 233,489 23,999 21,108 230,598 67,500 62,500 5,000 235,596 315,320 1.6
2040–41 20,618,649 229,687 148,635 81,052 237,115 24,304 21,435 234,246 67,500 62,500 5,000 239,243 320,295 1.6
2041–42 20,938,944 234,375 151,858 82,517 240,799 24,615 21,767 237,951 67,500 62,500 5,000 242,944 325,461 1.6
2042–43 21,264,405 239,090 155,079 84,011 244,537 24,944 22,104 241,697 67,500 62,500 5,000 246,697 330,708 1.6
2043–44 21,595,113 243,830 158,282 85,548 248,342 25,285 22,446 245,503 67,500 62,500 5,000 250,504 336,052 1.6
2044–45 21,931,165 248,633 161,446 87,187 252,207 25,649 22,794 249,352 67,500 62,500 5,000 254,359 341,546 1.6
2045–46 22,272,711 253,516 164,584 88,932 256,141 26,029 23,148 253,260 67,500 62,500 5,000 258,258 347,190 1.6
2046 22,619,901

Sources: Statistics Canada estimates, 2011-2018, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.

Notes:

1. Population age structure is for the beginning of each Census year, i.e., July 1.

2. For 2018-19, population and age structure are Statistics Canada estimates for July 1, 2018.

3. [3a], [3b], [3c], [3d], [3e], [3f] For historical components of demographic growth, Statistics Canada's residual deviation is included in net migration.

LIST OF TABLES