Ontario Population Projections, 2019–2046
Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years — reference scenario

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Greater Toronto Area

Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years — reference scenario
Greater Toronto Area (GTA)
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division Historical
2011
Historical
2016
Historical
2019
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Projected
2046
Greater Toronto Area (GTA) 6,253.0 6,628.3 6,982.9 7,165.4 7,683.9 8,137.3 8,596.1 9,064.7 9,547.4
Toronto 2,704.9 2,819.4 2,965.7 3,033.5 3,213.7 3,347.9 3,477.5 3,604.2 3,734.9
Durham 626.6 666.0 697.4 713.3 755.0 795.6 835.4 874.4 913.2
Halton 517.1 565.1 596.4 614.0 664.4 716.0 771.2 830.3 891.9
Peel 1,339.0 1,433.0 1,542.0 1,602.1 1,778.9 1,938.5 2,103.3 2,275.8 2,455.2
York 1,065.5 1,144.9 1,181.5 1,202.6 1,271.9 1,339.3 1,408.8 1,480.1 1,552.3

Central

Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years — reference scenario
Central (Excluding GTA)
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division Historical
2011
Historical
2016
Historical
2019
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Projected
2046
Central (Excluding GTA) 2,861.9 2,998.8 3,160.4 3,255.8 3,472.8 3,665.6 3,855.7 4,044.2 4,232.7
Brant 140.0 144.5 149.9 152.8 159.2 165.3 171.4 177.6 184.0
Dufferin 58.5 63.7 67.8 70.4 76.7 83.1 89.2 95.3 101.3
Haldimand-Norfolk 111.9 114.0 120.3 123.9 130.6 135.8 140.7 145.5 150.4
Haliburton 17.4 18.5 19.4 20.0 20.9 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.5
Hamilton 535.2 552.3 574.3 586.0 616.8 646.2 677.3 709.7 743.4
Muskoka 61.2 62.7 66.3 67.9 70.8 73.3 75.6 77.8 79.8
Niagara 442.9 459.3 479.2 491.8 521.0 546.1 570.9 595.5 620.0
Northumberland 84.1 87.6 90.0 91.9 96.2 100.1 103.6 106.7 109.5
Peterborough 138.5 141.7 147.9 151.5 158.7 164.6 170.0 175.2 180.3
Simcoe 458.9 494.2 528.2 547.5 590.5 628.8 665.0 699.2 732.1
Kawartha Lakes 75.0 77.3 80.5 82.7 87.0 90.8 94.1 97.2 100.1
Waterloo 523.7 553.4 595.5 620.4 676.5 724.2 772.2 820.7 870.1
Wellington 214.8 229.8 241.1 249.0 267.8 285.7 303.3 320.7 338.1

Eastern

Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years — reference scenario
Eastern
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division Historical
2011
Historical
2016
Historical
2019
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Projected
2046
Eastern 1,749.4 1,815.3 1,905.3 1,953.0 2,063.2 2,159.7 2,253.3 2,344.9 2,436.1
Ottawa 911.7 964.3 1,028.5 1,061.8 1,143.1 1,216.0 1,287.8 1,358.7 1,429.8
Frontenac 154.2 154.9 163.9 168.2 176.7 183.2 189.3 195.1 200.8
Hastings 138.4 140.1 145.4 148.4 154.0 158.2 162.1 165.8 169.3
Lanark 67.3 70.4 72.9 74.7 78.5 81.7 84.6 87.1 89.4
Leeds & Grenville 101.8 103.0 104.7 105.9 108.1 109.9 111.6 113.1 114.5
Lennox & Addington 42.9 44.0 44.7 45.0 45.8 46.5 47.2 47.8 48.4
Prescott & Russell 87.8 91.8 95.0 96.8 101.0 104.7 108.1 111.2 114.1
Prince Edward 25.8 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.8
Renfrew 104.1 105.1 106.7 107.5 109.2 110.8 112.4 114.0 115.8
Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry 115.6 116.5 118.1 119.2 121.4 123.1 124.7 126.4 128.1

Southwestern

Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years — reference scenario
Southwestern
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division Historical
2011
Historical
2016
Historical
2019
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Projected
2046
Southwestern 1,589.1 1,628.9 1,706.5 1,747.1 1,830.8 1,900.8 1,970.7 2,041.8 2,114.5
Bruce 67.8 70.0 73.1 74.9 78.5 81.4 84.1 86.9 89.9
Elgin 89.9 91.4 94.9 96.6 100.0 103.0 106.1 109.2 112.5
Essex 399.7 412.1 428.6 438.0 458.3 475.2 492.8 511.0 529.7
Grey 94.8 96.3 100.3 102.4 106.4 110.1 113.9 117.6 121.4
Huron 60.6 60.7 62.7 64.1 66.8 69.1 71.3 73.5 75.8
Chatham-Kent 106.7 104.8 106.1 106.3 106.3 106.1 106.0 106.1 106.3
Lambton 131.4 129.4 132.2 133.3 134.7 135.3 136.0 136.9 138.0
Middlesex 452.5 471.3 506.0 523.6 561.2 592.2 622.7 653.2 684.0
Oxford 108.7 114.1 120.5 124.0 131.5 138.1 144.6 151.0 157.4
Perth 77.1 79.0 82.1 83.8 87.1 90.1 93.2 96.4 99.6

Northeastern

Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years — reference scenario
Northeastern
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division Historical
2011
Historical
2016
Historical
2019
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Projected
2046
Northeastern 567.3 563.4 568.4 570.7 573.0 572.6 572.6 573.5 575.3
Algoma 119.4 117.6 118.1 118.5 118.6 118.2 117.9 117.7 117.7
Cochrane 83.3 81.8 80.8 80.4 79.3 78.1 77.1 76.4 75.8
Manitoulin 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8
Nipissing 87.5 85.5 86.8 87.0 87.0 86.8 86.6 86.6 86.7
Parry Sound 43.2 43.9 45.1 45.9 47.4 48.5 49.4 50.4 51.3
Greater Sudbury 164.9 166.0 168.9 170.3 172.7 174.0 175.3 176.8 178.4
Sudbury 21.7 22.2 22.0 22.0 21.7 21.4 21.1 20.9 20.8
Timiskaming 33.9 33.0 33.0 32.9 32.4 31.9 31.5 31.1 30.9

Northwestern

Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years — reference scenario
Northwestern
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division Historical
2011
Historical
2016
Historical
2019
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Projected
2046
Northwestern 240.7 240.6 243.0 244.5 246.8 247.6 248.4 249.6 251.1
Kenora 69.7 69.6 70.5 70.8 71.3 71.6 72.0 72.4 73.1
Rainy River 21.0 20.7 20.6 20.7 20.7 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8
Thunder Bay 150.0 150.3 151.9 153.0 154.8 155.2 155.7 156.3 157.2

Total for Ontario

Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years — reference scenario
Total for Ontario
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division Historical
2011
Historical
2016
Historical
2019
Projected
2021
Projected
2026
Projected
2031
Projected
2036
Projected
2041
Projected
2046
Ontario 13,261.4 13,875.4 14,566.5 14,936.4 15,870.6 16,683.6 17,496.9 18,318.7 19,157.0

Sources: Statistics Canada estimates, 2011-2019, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.

Notes:

1. Year as of July 1.

2. Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.

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