Ontario Population Projections Update, 2016–2041
Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years — reference scenario
| Region & Census Division | Historical 2006 |
Historical 2011 |
Historical 2016 |
Projected 2021 |
Projected 2026 |
Projected 2031 |
Projected 2036 |
Projected 2041 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area (GTA) | 5,795.8 | 6,254.6 | 6,746.8 | 7,391.5 | 7,948.5 | 8,511.0 | 9,062.7 | 9,600.8 |
| Toronto | 2,609.2 | 2,704.6 | 2,876.1 | 3,149.5 | 3,346.5 | 3,537.2 | 3,717.2 | 3,886.6 |
| Durham | 584.3 | 626.8 | 671.8 | 720.9 | 771.4 | 825.0 | 878.9 | 932.9 |
| Halton | 457.7 | 517.2 | 569.6 | 630.7 | 692.9 | 759.1 | 827.7 | 898.3 |
| Peel | 1,212.8 | 1,340.5 | 1,471.6 | 1,625.5 | 1,763.9 | 1,902.7 | 2,038.0 | 2,169.1 |
| York | 931.8 | 1,065.5 | 1,157.7 | 1,264.9 | 1,373.7 | 1,487.1 | 1,601.0 | 1,713.9 |
| Region & Census Division | Historical 2006 |
Historical 2011 |
Historical 2016 |
Projected 2021 |
Projected 2026 |
Projected 2031 |
Projected 2036 |
Projected 2041 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central (Excluding GTA) | 2,790.2 | 2,862.1 | 2,992.6 | 3,169.1 | 3,324.7 | 3,478.1 | 3,621.8 | 3,756.6 |
| Brant | 135.9 | 139.9 | 146.2 | 154.5 | 161.9 | 169.1 | 175.8 | 182.1 |
| Dufferin | 56.5 | 58.5 | 64.2 | 69.8 | 74.5 | 79.4 | 84.1 | 88.6 |
| Haldimand-Norfolk | 112.4 | 111.8 | 112.4 | 113.7 | 114.7 | 115.7 | 116.5 | 117.0 |
| Haliburton | 16.6 | 17.4 | 18.1 | 19.0 | 19.9 | 20.7 | 21.5 | 22.2 |
| Hamilton | 523.6 | 535.6 | 561.0 | 597.8 | 630.3 | 662.9 | 694.0 | 723.5 |
| Muskoka | 59.6 | 61.1 | 62.5 | 65.1 | 67.4 | 69.6 | 71.7 | 73.7 |
| Niagara | 442.4 | 442.8 | 453.8 | 472.3 | 486.9 | 501.5 | 514.9 | 527.1 |
| Northumberland | 83.5 | 84.1 | 87.0 | 91.2 | 94.8 | 98.1 | 101.0 | 103.5 |
| Peterborough | 137.6 | 138.5 | 141.4 | 146.0 | 149.7 | 153.1 | 156.0 | 158.7 |
| Simcoe | 438.3 | 458.9 | 494.5 | 534.5 | 571.9 | 608.7 | 643.6 | 676.7 |
| Kawartha Lakes | 76.9 | 74.9 | 76.5 | 79.2 | 81.8 | 84.2 | 86.3 | 88.2 |
| Waterloo | 498.5 | 523.8 | 548.9 | 584.8 | 616.0 | 646.7 | 675.7 | 703.1 |
| Wellington | 208.4 | 214.7 | 226.1 | 241.2 | 255.0 | 268.3 | 280.7 | 292.3 |
| Region & Census Division | Historical 2006 |
Historical 2011 |
Historical 2016 |
Projected 2021 |
Projected 2026 |
Projected 2031 |
Projected 2036 |
Projected 2041 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern | 1,668.2 | 1,750.0 | 1,821.4 | 1,935.8 | 2,023.1 | 2,105.5 | 2,178.5 | 2,243.9 |
| Ottawa | 845.9 | 912.2 | 973.5 | 1,063.4 | 1,133.4 | 1,201.1 | 1,263.5 | 1,321.0 |
| Frontenac | 149.3 | 154.3 | 159.6 | 169.4 | 176.2 | 182.3 | 187.6 | 192.3 |
| Hastings | 136.6 | 138.4 | 138.7 | 140.8 | 141.9 | 142.7 | 143.1 | 143.3 |
| Lanark | 65.9 | 67.3 | 68.3 | 69.9 | 71.3 | 72.6 | 73.7 | 74.5 |
| Leeds & Grenville | 102.4 | 101.8 | 101.1 | 102.2 | 103.1 | 103.9 | 104.2 | 104.2 |
| Lennox & Addington | 41.9 | 42.9 | 44.0 | 45.5 | 46.7 | 47.7 | 48.5 | 49.0 |
| Prescott & Russell | 83.2 | 87.8 | 90.4 | 94.4 | 97.9 | 100.8 | 103.0 | 104.7 |
| Prince Edward | 26.2 | 25.8 | 25.2 | 25.3 | 25.4 | 25.5 | 25.6 | 25.6 |
| Renfrew | 101.1 | 104.1 | 105.1 | 107.9 | 109.6 | 111.1 | 112.1 | 112.8 |
| Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry | 115.6 | 115.6 | 115.6 | 117.0 | 117.5 | 117.6 | 117.2 | 116.4 |
| Region & Census Division | Historical 2006 |
Historical 2011 |
Historical 2016 |
Projected 2021 |
Projected 2026 |
Projected 2031 |
Projected 2036 |
Projected 2041 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwestern | 1,590.7 | 1,589.2 | 1,624.7 | 1,684.2 | 1,728.5 | 1,770.2 | 1,806.8 | 1,838.9 |
| Bruce | 67.4 | 67.8 | 68.9 | 70.5 | 71.7 | 72.4 | 73.0 | 73.5 |
| Elgin | 88.6 | 89.8 | 91.2 | 93.5 | 95.6 | 97.5 | 99.0 | 100.4 |
| Essex | 408.8 | 399.7 | 408.0 | 422.9 | 433.1 | 443.3 | 452.6 | 460.7 |
| Grey | 95.4 | 94.8 | 95.6 | 97.8 | 99.8 | 101.8 | 103.6 | 105.2 |
| Huron | 61.3 | 60.5 | 59.3 | 58.4 | 57.5 | 56.7 | 55.8 | 55.1 |
| Chatham-Kent | 112.4 | 106.7 | 105.3 | 105.2 | 104.7 | 104.3 | 103.7 | 103.0 |
| Lambton | 132.6 | 131.4 | 129.7 | 130.0 | 129.6 | 129.0 | 128.2 | 127.3 |
| Middlesex | 440.7 | 452.8 | 475.9 | 508.7 | 534.1 | 558.1 | 580.0 | 600.0 |
| Oxford | 106.5 | 108.7 | 112.3 | 116.6 | 120.5 | 123.9 | 126.7 | 128.9 |
| Perth | 77.1 | 77.1 | 78.7 | 80.6 | 82.0 | 83.2 | 84.1 | 84.9 |
| Region & Census Division | Historical 2006 |
Historical 2011 |
Historical 2016 |
Projected 2021 |
Projected 2026 |
Projected 2031 |
Projected 2036 |
Projected 2041 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeastern | 571.6 | 567.1 | 558.9 | 558.2 | 555.0 | 550.9 | 545.8 | 540.3 |
| Algoma | 121.2 | 119.3 | 116.2 | 114.5 | 112.2 | 109.8 | 107.5 | 105.1 |
| Cochrane | 86.9 | 83.3 | 80.5 | 79.2 | 77.8 | 76.4 | 75.0 | 73.6 |
| Manitoulin | 13.0 | 13.3 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.7 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.5 |
| Nipissing | 87.4 | 87.6 | 87.6 | 88.9 | 89.5 | 89.9 | 89.9 | 89.9 |
| Parry Sound | 42.4 | 43.2 | 42.7 | 43.2 | 43.6 | 43.8 | 44.0 | 44.1 |
| Greater Sudbury | 163.8 | 164.9 | 165.3 | 167.3 | 168.1 | 168.4 | 168.1 | 167.5 |
| Sudbury | 22.5 | 21.6 | 20.5 | 19.6 | 18.8 | 18.1 | 17.5 | 16.8 |
| Timiskaming | 34.3 | 33.9 | 32.6 | 31.9 | 31.2 | 30.7 | 30.2 | 29.7 |
| Region & Census Division | Historical 2006 |
Historical 2011 |
Historical 2016 |
Projected 2021 |
Projected 2026 |
Projected 2031 |
Projected 2036 |
Projected 2041 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern | 245.0 | 240.5 | 238.6 | 241.6 | 242.7 | 243.0 | 242.5 | 241.3 |
| Kenora | 68.6 | 69.6 | 71.0 | 73.2 | 74.4 | 75.4 | 76.3 | 77.1 |
| Rainy River | 22.3 | 20.9 | 19.7 | 19.3 | 18.8 | 18.2 | 17.6 | 16.9 |
| Thunder Bay | 154.1 | 150.0 | 147.9 | 149.1 | 149.5 | 149.4 | 148.6 | 147.3 |
| Region & Census Division | Historical 2006 |
Historical 2011 |
Historical 2016 |
Projected 2021 |
Projected 2026 |
Projected 2031 |
Projected 2036 |
Projected 2041 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ontario | 12,661.6 | 13,263.5 | 13,983.0 | 14,980.4 | 15,822.5 | 16,658.6 | 17,458.0 | 18,221.8 |
Sources: Statistics Canada estimates, 2006–2016, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.
Notes:
1. Year as of July 1.
2. Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.