Ontario Population Projections Update, 2017–2041
Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years — reference scenario

Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years — reference scenario
Greater Toronto Area (GTA)
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division	Historical 2006	Historical 2011	Historical 2016	Historical 2017	Projected 2021	Projected 2026	Projected 2031	Projected 2036	Projected 2041
Greater Toronto Area (GTA)	5,795.8	6,254.6	6,730.1	6,858.5	7,405.4	7,973.9	8,539.1	9,099.6	9,656.9
Toronto	2,609.2	2,704.6	2,871.1	2,929.9	3,168.2	3,369.8	3,560.4	3,741.2	3,912.7
Durham	584.3	626.8	671.8	682.4	722.2	772.6	825.6	879.5	934.2
Halton	457.7	517.2	569.4	581.4	631.4	694.9	762.4	833.5	908.4
Peel	1,212.8	1,340.5	1,468.7	1,500.6	1,637.6	1,787.4	1,933.4	2,076.5	2,218.0
York	931.8	1,065.5	1,149.1	1,164.2	1,245.9	1,349.2	1,457.4	1,569.0	1,683.6

Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years — reference scenario
Central (Excluding GTA)
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division	Historical 2006	Historical 2011	Historical 2016	Historical 2017	Projected 2021	Projected 2026	Projected 2031	Projected 2036	Projected 2041
Central (Excluding GTA)	2,790.2	2,862.1	2,999.5	3,044.2	3,202.5	3,371.7	3,540.8	3,705.7	3,867.6
Brant	135.9	139.9	146.3	148.2	155.4	163.1	170.6	177.9	185.1
Dufferin	56.5	58.5	64.0	65.6	71.2	76.9	82.8	88.5	94.0
Haldimand-Norfolk	112.4	111.8	112.7	113.7	115.9	117.8	119.8	121.8	123.7
Haliburton	16.6	17.4	18.3	18.5	19.2	20.0	20.7	21.5	22.4
Hamilton	523.6	535.6	561.0	568.0	599.4	634.3	669.9	705.3	740.7
Muskoka	59.6	61.1	63.1	64.0	66.6	69.2	71.8	74.3	76.8
Niagara	442.4	442.8	454.2	459.0	476.1	492.7	509.7	526.3	542.5
Northumberland	83.5	84.1	87.1	87.9	91.2	95.0	98.7	102.2	105.4
Peterborough	137.6	138.5	142.0	143.8	149.1	154.0	158.6	162.9	167.1
Simcoe	438.3	458.9	496.4	506.8	541.8	581.9	621.7	660.2	697.6
Kawartha Lakes	76.9	74.9	76.9	77.7	80.1	82.9	85.9	88.7	91.4
Waterloo	498.5	523.8	550.4	559.7	591.4	623.7	655.6	686.8	717.6
Wellington	208.4	214.7	227.1	231.3	245.1	260.2	274.9	289.2	303.2

Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years — reference scenario
Eastern
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division	Historical 2006	Historical 2011	Historical 2016	Historical 2017	Projected 2021	Projected 2026	Projected 2031	Projected 2036	Projected 2041
Eastern	1,668.2	1,750.0	1,821.9	1,848.9	1,945.2	2,033.2	2,117.3	2,195.1	2,268.5
Ottawa	845.9	912.2	973.6	994.8	1,070.6	1,141.1	1,209.3	1,273.4	1,334.2
Frontenac	149.3	154.3	159.7	161.9	169.5	175.6	181.1	186.1	190.9
Hastings	136.6	138.4	139.3	140.5	143.5	145.5	147.4	149.0	150.5
Lanark	65.9	67.3	68.7	69.3	70.9	72.5	74.2	75.6	77.0
Leeds & Grenville	102.4	101.8	101.5	101.8	102.9	103.9	104.8	105.6	106.3
Lennox & Addington	41.9	42.9	43.9	44.0	45.0	46.3	47.5	48.4	49.2
Prescott & Russell	83.2	87.8	89.9	90.4	93.1	96.1	98.7	101.0	102.9
Prince Edward	26.2	25.8	25.4	25.5	25.5	25.5	25.6	25.7	25.9
Renfrew	101.1	104.1	104.9	105.4	107.8	109.6	111.3	112.9	114.3
Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry	115.6	115.6	115.1	115.2	116.4	117.0	117.4	117.4	117.3

Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years — reference scenario
Southwestern
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division	Historical 2006	Historical 2011	Historical 2016	Historical 2017	Projected 2021	Projected 2026	Projected 2031	Projected 2036	Projected 2041
Southwestern	1,590.7	1,589.2	1,627.3	1,644.9	1,702.8	1,756.0	1,807.6	1,856.7	1,904.4
Bruce	67.4	67.8	68.9	69.4	71.1	72.6	73.8	74.9	76.2
Elgin	88.6	89.8	91.5	92.4	94.7	96.9	99.1	101.1	103.2
Essex	408.8	399.7	407.8	412.3	428.0	441.6	455.4	469.0	482.1
Grey	95.4	94.8	96.3	97.2	99.7	102.4	105.1	107.9	110.7
Huron	61.3	60.5	59.2	59.3	59.3	58.7	58.3	57.9	57.6
Chatham-Kent	112.4	106.7	105.7	105.9	106.3	106.2	106.2	106.3	106.3
Lambton	132.6	131.4	130.1	130.4	131.0	130.6	130.3	129.9	129.6
Middlesex	440.7	452.8	476.3	484.5	513.8	541.5	567.9	592.8	616.5
Oxford	106.5	108.7	112.9	114.3	118.3	122.7	126.8	130.7	134.3
Perth	77.1	77.1	78.6	79.0	80.8	82.7	84.6	86.3	88.0

Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years — reference scenario
Northeastern
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division	Historical 2006	Historical 2011	Historical 2016	Historical 2017	Projected 2021	Projected 2026	Projected 2031	Projected 2036	Projected 2041
Northeastern	571.6	567.1	558.5	557.6	556.8	553.1	548.9	544.6	540.7
Algoma	121.2	119.3	116.2	116.0	115.2	113.2	111.3	109.4	107.7
Cochrane	86.9	83.3	80.5	79.9	78.6	76.8	75.1	73.5	72.1
Manitoulin	13.0	13.3	13.4	13.4	13.6	13.7	13.7	13.8	13.8
Nipissing	87.4	87.6	87.6	87.7	88.2	88.3	88.3	88.2	88.1
Parry Sound	42.4	43.2	43.0	43.3	43.9	44.5	44.9	45.4	45.8
Greater Sudbury	163.8	164.9	164.9	165.0	166.4	167.1	167.4	167.4	167.3
Sudbury	22.5	21.6	20.2	19.8	19.2	18.6	18.0	17.5	17.0
Timiskaming	34.3	33.9	32.7	32.5	31.7	30.9	30.2	29.5	28.9

Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years — reference scenario
Northwestern
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division	Historical 2006	Historical 2011	Historical 2016	Historical 2017	Projected 2021	Projected 2026	Projected 2031	Projected 2036	Projected 2041
Northwestern	245.0	240.5	239.0	239.3	241.2	241.5	241.3	240.7	239.7
Kenora	68.6	69.6	70.7	71.3	73.2	74.6	75.7	76.8	77.9
Rainy River	22.3	20.9	19.9	20.0	19.7	19.1	18.5	18.0	17.4
Thunder Bay	154.1	150.0	148.3	148.1	148.3	147.8	147.1	145.9	144.4

Table 4: Historical and projected population by census division, selected years — reference scenario
Total for Ontario
(Thousands)
Region & Census Division	Historical 2006	Historical 2011	Historical 2016	Historical 2017	Projected 2021	Projected 2026	Projected 2031	Projected 2036	Projected 2041
Ontario	12,661.6	13,263.5	13,976.3	14,193.4	15,054.0	15,929.4	16,795.0	17,642.4	18,477.8

Sources: Statistics Canada estimates, 2006-2017, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.

Notes:

1. Year as of July 1.

2. Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.