Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of First Quarter 2019

June 19, 2019

Population Growth

Population growth, Ontario, Q1 2019

Thousands
Population, January 1, 2019 14,446.5
Plus Births 35.0
Minus Deaths 28.1
Plus Immigrants 31.1
Minus Emigrants* 7.5
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents 11.7
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals 16.7
Minus Interprovincial Departures 15.3
Population, April 1, 2019 14,490.2
* Emigrants plus net change in temporary
emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada

Ontario’s population reached 14,490,207 on April 1, 2019, with an increase of 43,692 people during the first quarter of 2019. This compares to an increase of 55,355 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Births and Deaths

There were 35,041 births during the first quarter of 2019, a decrease of 0.8% from the same quarter of 2018. The number of deaths increased by 1.5% to reach 28,074.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 6,967 in the quarter, down slightly from 7,660 in the same quarter of 2018.

International Migration

Immigration to Ontario was 31,133 in the first quarter of 2019, down slightly from 35,227 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 47.2% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, up from 44.1% in the same quarter of 2018. Over the last 12 months, Ontario received 133,316 immigrants, up from 121,906 during the previous year.

There were 7,548 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, similar to the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 47.0% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) increased by 11,670 to 551,881 in the first quarter.

In summary, there was a net international migration gain of 35,255 in the first quarter, down from a net gain of 44,222 in the same quarter of 2018.

Interprovincial Migration

In the first quarter of 2019, Ontario had a net inflow of 1,470 people from other provinces and territories compared to a net gain of 3,473 people in the same quarter of 2018. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with seven of the 12 other provinces and territories. The largest gains came from Saskatchewan (1,063) and Quebec (984). The largest losses were to Alberta (−551) and British Columbia (−413). Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration gain was 15,883, compared to a net gain of 17,848 during the previous year.

Year-Over-Year Growth

Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s population grew by 244,172 or 1.7%, higher than growth of 238,550 during the previous year. Among the provinces, Ontario had the third fastest population growth rate, after Prince Edward Island (2.2%) and Alberta (1.7%). Canada’s population grew at a rate of 1.4% over the period.

For more information contact Alex Munger (416) 325-0102.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet

POPULATION (000s) - Estimates1
  2001 2006 2011 2016 2017 2018
Canada 31,021 32,571 34,339 36,109 36,540 37,059
Ontario 11,898 12,662 13,261 13,875 14,071 14,323
Ontario as % of Canada 38.4 38.9 38.6 38.4 38.5 38.6
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.8
POPULATION (000s) - MOF Projections2
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Canada 37,998 39,727 41,373 42,903 44,353
Ontario 15,054 15,929 16,795 17,642 18,478
Ontario as % of Canada 39.6 40.1 40.6 41.1 41.7
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%) - Estimates3
  2001 2006 2011 2016 2017 2018
0–4 5.9 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.1
5–14 13.5 12.3 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.8
15–24 13.4 13.8 13.7 12.9 13.0 13.1
25–44 31.6 29.4 27.1 26.5 26.5 26.7
45–64 23.2 26.0 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.4
65–74 7.0 6.9 7.6 9.2 9.4 9.6
75+ 5.5 6.2 6.6 7.1 7.2 7.4
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%) - MOF Projections4
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0–4 5.1 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.8
5–14 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.0
15–24 12.2 11.7 11.5 11.5 11.6
25–44 27.6 27.4 26.6 25.6 24.5
45–64 26.4 24.7 23.5 23.6 24.3
65–74 10.4 11.3 11.9 11.2 10.1
75+ 8.0 9.5 11.2 13.1 14.7
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%) - Estimates5
  2001 2006 2011 2016 2017 2018
0–14 19.4 17.8 16.6 16.1 16.0 15.8
15–64 68.1 69.2 69.1 67.6 67.4 67.2
65+ 12.5 13.0 14.2 16.3 16.6 16.9
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%) - MOF Projections6
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0–14 15.4 15.3 15.3 15.1 14.8
15–64 66.2 63.8 61.6 60.7 60.4
65+ 18.3 20.9 23.1 24.3 24.8
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS - Estimates7
  2001 2006 2011 2016 2017 2018
Total dependency ratio (%)8 63.0 60.6 60.4 61.5 61.4 61.3
Median age (years) 36.7 38.4 39.8 40.7 40.7 40.6
Age span of baby boom (years) 36-55 41-60 46-65 51-70 52-71 53-72
Total fertility rate9 1.53 1.55 1.56 1.52 n.a. n.a.
Female life expectancy at birth (years)10 82.1 83.1 84.0 84.4 n.a. n.a.
Male life expectancy at birth (years)11 77.5 78.8 79.8 80.4 n.a. n.a.
Families (000s) 3,257 3,539 3,723 3,900 3,937 n.a.
Households (000s)12 4,219 4,555 4,888 5,169 n.a. n.a.
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS - MOF Projections13
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Total dependency ratio (%)14 64.9 71.7 78.0 81.1 82.1
Median age (years) 40.8 41.6 42.5 43.5 44.3
Age span of baby boom (years) 56-75 61-80 66-85 71-90 76-95
Total fertility rate15 1.48 1.49 1.52 1.56 1.60
Female life expectancy at birth (years)16 85.5 86.4 87.2 87.9 88.7
Male life expectancy at birth (years)17 82.1 83.3 84.5 85.5 86.6
Families (000s)  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.
Households (000s)18  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%) - Estimates19
  2001 2006 2011 2016 2017 2018
Greater Toronto Area 44.5 45.8 47.2 47.8 47.8 47.8
Central 22.1 22.0 21.6 21.6 21.7 21.7
Eastern 13.5 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1
Southwestern 13.0 12.6 12.0 11.7 11.7 11.7
Northeastern 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0
Northwestern 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%) - MOF Projections20
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Greater Toronto Area 49.2 50.1 50.8 51.6 52.3
Central 21.3 21.2 21.1 21.0 20.9
Eastern 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.3
Southwestern 11.3 11.0 10.8 10.5 10.3
Northeastern 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9
Northwestern 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)21 – Year Beginning July 1st
Period Population,
Beginning of Period
Total Change Births Deaths Natural Increase
Five-Year: 2001–06 11,898 764 658 418 240
Five-Year: 2006–11 12,662 600 697 441 256
Five-Year: 2011–16 13,261 614 702 471 231
Annual: 2016–17 13,875 196 142 101 41
Annual: 2017–18 14,071 251 145 104 41
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)22 – Year Beginning July 1st
Migration - International Migration
Period Immigrants Net emigrants Net NPRs Net
Five-Year: 2001–06 653 125 44 573
Five-Year: 2006–11 558 104 57 511
Five-Year: 2011–16 519 123 85 481
Annual: 2016–17 98 25 69 142
Annual: 2017–18 132 25 86 193
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)23 – Year Beginning July 1st
Migration - Interprovincial Migration
Period In Out Net
Five-Year: 2001–06 307 336 −30
Five-Year: 2006–11 296 355 −59
Five-Year: 2011–16 307 346 −39
Annual: 2016–17 72 58 13
Annual: 2017–18 80 62 18

[1], [3], [5], [7], [19] Statistics Canada’s population estimates based on the 2016 Census.

[2], [4], [6], [13], [20] Except for Canada, projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2018). Projections for Canada are from Statistics Canada (based on 2011 Census).

[8], [14] Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.

[9], [10], [11], [15], [16], [17] Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates represent three-year averages (e.g., 2006 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2005-2007).

[12], [18] Households are Census data.

[21], [22], [23] In the “Components of Change” table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.

Note: All population figures are for July 1st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

June 19, 2019

Office of Economic Policy

Accessible Image Description:

This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the first quarter of 201 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2014-2018). In the first quarter of 2019, all components were higher than the average of first quarters of the previous five years.

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