September 30, 2019
Population Growth
Population Growth, Ontario, |
|
| (Thousands) | |
| Population, April 1, 2019 | 14,484.2 |
|---|---|
| Plus Births | 37.3 |
| Minus Deaths | 26.2 |
| Plus Immigrants | 43.5 |
| Minus Emigrants* | 2.5 |
| Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents | 29.3 |
| Plus Interprovincial Arrivals | 27.7 |
| Minus Interprovincial Departures | 26.9 |
| Population, July 1, 2019 | 14,566.5 |
| * Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians. |
|
| Source: Statistics Canada | |
Ontario’s population reached 14,566,547 on July 1, 2019, with an increase of 82,305 people during the second quarter of 2019. This compares to an increase of 77,166 in the same quarter of the previous year.
Births and Deaths
There were 37,267 births during the second quarter of 2019, an increase of 2.7% from the same quarter of 2018. The number of deaths increased by 3.4% to reach 26,151.
Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 11,116 in the quarter, up slightly from 10,997 in the same quarter of 2018.
International Migration
Immigration to Ontario was 43,527 in the second quarter of 2019, up from 37,776 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 46.2% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, up from 43.1% in the same quarter of 2018. Over the last 12 months, Ontario received 139,071 immigrants, up from 132,472 during the previous year.
There were 2,483 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, similar to the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 34.8% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.
The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) increased by 29,343 to 580,416 in the second quarter.
In summary, there was a net international migration gain of 70,387 in the second quarter, up from a net gain of 65,481 in the same quarter of 2018.
Interprovincial Migration
In the second quarter of 2019, Ontario had a net inflow of 802 people from other provinces and territories compared to a net gain of 688 people in the same quarter of 2018. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with six of the 12 other provinces and territories. The largest gains came from Manitoba (1,010) and Saskatchewan (962). The largest losses were to British Columbia (−351) and Alberta (−343). Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration gain was 11,731, compared to a net gain of 9,944 during the previous year.
Year-Over-Year Growth
Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s population grew by 248,002 or 1.7%, higher than growth of 245,930 during the previous year. Among the provinces, Ontario had the second fastest population growth rate, after Prince Edward Island (2.2%). Canada’s population grew at a rate of 1.4% over the period.
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Ontario Demographic Factsheet
| 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 32,571 | 34,339 | 36,109 | 36,543 | 37,058 | 37,589 |
| Ontario | 12,662 | 13,261 | 13,875 | 14,073 | 14,319 | 14,567 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 38.9 | 38.6 | 38.4 | 38.5 | 38.6 | 38.8 |
| Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 38,285 | 40,315 | 42,271 | 44,115 | 45,844 | 47,479 |
| Ontario | 15,073 | 16,070 | 16,983 | 17,896 | 18,818 | 19,759 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 38.8 | 39.0 | 39.2 | 39.3 | 39.3 | n.a. |
| Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| 5–14 | 12.3 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 10.7 |
| 15–24 | 13.8 | 13.7 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| 25–44 | 29.4 | 27.1 | 26.5 | 26.6 | 26.8 | 27.1 |
| 45–64 | 26.0 | 28.3 | 28.1 | 27.9 | 27.5 | 27.0 |
| 65–74 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 9.8 |
| 75+ | 6.2 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 7.5 |
| 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| 5–14 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 9.8 |
| 15–24 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 12.6 |
| 25–44 | 27.3 | 27.5 | 27.0 | 26.4 | 25.6 | 25.3 |
| 45–64 | 26.3 | 24.3 | 23.1 | 23.1 | 23.7 | 24.0 |
| 65–74 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| 75+ | 7.8 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 13.7 | 14.1 |
| 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 17.8 | 16.6 | 16.1 | 16.0 | 15.8 | 15.7 |
| 15–64 | 69.2 | 69.1 | 67.6 | 67.4 | 67.3 | 67.1 |
| 65+ | 13.0 | 14.2 | 16.3 | 16.6 | 16.9 | 17.2 |
| 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 15.4 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 15.0 | 14.8 | 14.7 |
| 15–64 | 66.6 | 64.7 | 62.7 | 61.9 | 61.8 | 61.9 |
| 65+ | 18.0 | 20.2 | 22.2 | 23.1 | 23.4 | 23.4 |
| 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total dependency ratio (%)8 | 60.6 | 60.4 | 62.6 | 63.0 | 63.2 | 63.4 |
| Median age (years) | 38.4 | 39.8 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 40.6 | 40.4 |
| Age span of baby boom (years) | 41-60 | 46-65 | 51-70 | 52-71 | 53-72 | 54-73 |
| Total fertility rate9 | 1.55 | 1.56 | 1.52 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Female life expectancy at birth (years)10 | 83.1 | 84.0 | 84.4 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Male life expectancy at birth (years)11 | 78.8 | 79.8 | 80.4 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Families (000s) | 3,539 | 3,722 | 3,832 | 3,865 | 3,902 | n.a. |
| Households (000s)12 | 4,555 | 4,888 | 5,169 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total dependency ratio (%)14 | 64.9 | 70.2 | 75.4 | 77.9 | 78.6 | 78.2 |
| Median age (years) | 40.4 | 40.8 | 41.5 | 42.3 | 42.8 | 42.9 |
| Age span of baby boom (years) | 56-75 | 61-80 | 66-85 | 71-90 | 76-95 | 81-100 |
| Total fertility rate15 | 1.50 | 1.49 | 1.48 | 1.49 | 1.53 | 1.55 |
| Female life expectancy at birth (years)16 | 85.1 | 85.8 | 86.5 | 87.2 | 87.9 | 88.5 |
| Male life expectancy at birth (years)17 | 81.4 | 82.4 | 83.4 | 84.3 | 85.2 | 86.0 |
| Families (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Households (000s)18 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area | 45.8 | 47.2 | 47.8 | 47.8 | 47.8 | n.a. |
| Central | 22.0 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.7 | n.a. |
| Eastern | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | n.a. |
| Southwestern | 12.6 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | n.a. |
| Northeastern | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | n.a. |
| Northwestern | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | n.a. |
| 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area | 48.3 | 49.1 | 49.8 | 50.5 | 51.2 | 51.8 |
| Central | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.5 | 21.4 | 21.3 | 21.2 |
| Eastern | 13.0 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 12.4 | 12.2 |
| Southwestern | 11.6 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 10.6 |
| Northeastern | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Northwestern | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Period | Population, Beginning of Period |
Total Change | Births | Deaths | Natural Increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 11,898 | 764 | 658 | 418 | 240 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 12,662 | 600 | 697 | 441 | 256 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 13,261 | 614 | 702 | 471 | 231 |
| Annual: 2016–17 | 13,875 | 197 | 140 | 102 | 39 |
| Annual: 2017–18 | 14,073 | 246 | 142 | 106 | 36 |
| Annual: 2018–19 | 14,319 | 248 | 146 | 109 | 37 |
| Period | Immigrants | Net emigrants | Net Non permanent residents | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 653 | 125 | 44 | 573 |
| Five-Year: 2006–11 | 558 | 104 | 57 | 511 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 519 | 123 | 85 | 481 |
| Annual: 2016–17 | 98 | 20 | 67 | 145 |
| Annual: 2017–18 | 132 | 20 | 87 | 200 |
| Annual: 2018–19 | 139 | 21 | 81 | 200 |
| Period | In | Out | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 307 | 336 | −30 |
| Five-Year 2006–11 | 296 | 355 | −59 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 307 | 346 | −39 |
| Annual: 2016–17 | 72 | 58 | 13 |
| Annual: 2017–18 | 70 | 60 | 10 |
| Annual: 2018–19 | 77 | 66 | 12 |
[1], [3], [5], [7], [19] Statistics Canada’s population estimates based on the 2016 Census.
[2], [4], [6], [13], [20] All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Summer 2019), except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
[8], [14] Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
[9], [10], [11], [15], [16], [17] Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates represent three-year
averages (e.g., 2006 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2005-2007).
[12], [18] Households are Census data.
[21], [22], [23] In the “Components of Change” table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.
September 30, 2019
Office of Economic Policy
Accessible Image Description:
This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the second quarter of 2019 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2014-2018). In the second quarter of 2019, all components except emigration were higher than the average of second quarters of the previous five years.