Ontario Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of Second Quarter 2019

September 30, 2019

Population Growth

Population Growth, Ontario,
2nd Quarter, 2019

(Thousands)
Population, April 1, 2019 14,484.2
Plus Births 37.3
Minus Deaths 26.2
Plus Immigrants 43.5
Minus Emigrants* 2.5
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents 29.3
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals 27.7
Minus Interprovincial Departures 26.9
Population, July 1, 2019 14,566.5
* Emigrants plus net change in temporary
emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada

Ontario’s population reached 14,566,547 on July 1, 2019, with an increase of 82,305 people during the second quarter of 2019. This compares to an increase of 77,166 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Births and Deaths

There were 37,267 births during the second quarter of 2019, an increase of 2.7% from the same quarter of 2018. The number of deaths increased by 3.4% to reach 26,151.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 11,116 in the quarter, up slightly from 10,997 in the same quarter of 2018.

International Migration

Immigration to Ontario was 43,527 in the second quarter of 2019, up from 37,776 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 46.2% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, up from 43.1% in the same quarter of 2018. Over the last 12 months, Ontario received 139,071 immigrants, up from 132,472 during the previous year.

There were 2,483 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, similar to the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 34.8% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) increased by 29,343 to 580,416 in the second quarter.

In summary, there was a net international migration gain of 70,387 in the second quarter, up from a net gain of 65,481 in the same quarter of 2018.

Interprovincial Migration

In the second quarter of 2019, Ontario had a net inflow of 802 people from other provinces and territories compared to a net gain of 688 people in the same quarter of 2018. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with six of the 12 other provinces and territories. The largest gains came from Manitoba (1,010) and Saskatchewan (962). The largest losses were to British Columbia (−351) and Alberta (−343). Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration gain was 11,731, compared to a net gain of 9,944 during the previous year.

Year-Over-Year Growth

Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s population grew by 248,002 or 1.7%, higher than growth of 245,930 during the previous year. Among the provinces, Ontario had the second fastest population growth rate, after Prince Edward Island (2.2%). Canada’s population grew at a rate of 1.4% over the period.

For more information contact Alex Munger (416) 325-0102.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet

Population (000s) - Estimates1
  2006 2011 2016 2017 2018 2019
Canada 32,571 34,339 36,109 36,543 37,058 37,589
Ontario 12,662 13,261 13,875 14,073 14,319 14,567
Ontario as % of Canada 38.9 38.6 38.4 38.5 38.6 38.8
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.7
Population (000s) - MOF Projections2
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
Canada 38,285 40,315 42,271 44,115 45,844 47,479
Ontario 15,073 16,070 16,983 17,896 18,818 19,759
Ontario as % of Canada 38.8 39.0 39.2 39.3 39.3 n.a.
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0
Age distribution (%) - Estimates3
  2006 2011 2016 2017 2018 2019
0–4 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0
5–14 12.3 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.7
15–24 13.8 13.7 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.0
25–44 29.4 27.1 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.1
45–64 26.0 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.0
65–74 6.9 7.6 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8
75+ 6.2 6.6 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.5
Age distribution (%) - MOF Projections4
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
0–4 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.9
5–14 10.4 10.1 10.1 10.1 9.9 9.8
15–24 13.0 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.5 12.6
25–44 27.3 27.5 27.0 26.4 25.6 25.3
45–64 26.3 24.3 23.1 23.1 23.7 24.0
65–74 10.2 11.0 11.5 10.8 9.7 9.3
75+ 7.8 9.2 10.7 12.3 13.7 14.1
Selected age groups (%) - Estimates5
  2006 2011 2016 2017 2018 2019
0–14 17.8 16.6 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.7
15–64 69.2 69.1 67.6 67.4 67.3 67.1
65+ 13.0 14.2 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.2
Selected age groups (%) - MOF Projections6
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
0–14 15.4 15.1 15.1 15.0 14.8 14.7
15–64 66.6 64.7 62.7 61.9 61.8 61.9
65+ 18.0 20.2 22.2 23.1 23.4 23.4
Other characteristics - Estimates7
  2006 2011 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total dependency ratio (%)8 60.6 60.4 62.6 63.0 63.2 63.4
Median age (years) 38.4 39.8 40.7 40.7 40.6 40.4
Age span of baby boom (years) 41-60 46-65 51-70 52-71 53-72 54-73
Total fertility rate9 1.55 1.56 1.52 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Female life expectancy at birth (years)10 83.1 84.0 84.4 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Male life expectancy at birth (years)11 78.8 79.8 80.4 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Families (000s) 3,539 3,722 3,832 3,865 3,902 n.a.
Households (000s)12 4,555 4,888 5,169 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Other characteristics - MOF Projections13
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
Total dependency ratio (%)14 64.9 70.2 75.4 77.9 78.6 78.2
Median age (years) 40.4 40.8 41.5 42.3 42.8 42.9
Age span of baby boom (years) 56-75 61-80 66-85 71-90 76-95 81-100
Total fertility rate15 1.50 1.49 1.48 1.49 1.53 1.55
Female life expectancy at birth (years)16 85.1 85.8 86.5 87.2 87.9 88.5
Male life expectancy at birth (years)17 81.4 82.4 83.4 84.3 85.2 86.0
Families (000s)  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.
Households (000s)18  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.
Regional distribution (%) - Estimates19
  2006 2011 2016 2017 2018 2019
Greater Toronto Area 45.8 47.2 47.8 47.8 47.8 n.a.
Central 22.0 21.6 21.6 21.7 21.7 n.a.
Eastern 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 n.a.
Southwestern 12.6 12.0 11.7 11.7 11.7 n.a.
Northeastern 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.0 n.a.
Northwestern 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 n.a.
Regional distribution (%) - MOF Projections20
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
Greater Toronto Area 48.3 49.1 49.8 50.5 51.2 51.8
Central 21.6 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.2
Eastern 13.0 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.4 12.2
Southwestern 11.6 11.4 11.2 11.0 10.8 10.6
Northeastern 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 2.9
Northwestern 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
Components of change (000s)21 – year beginning July 1st
Period Population,
Beginning of Period
Total Change Births Deaths Natural Increase
Five-Year: 2001–06 11,898 764 658 418 240
Five-Year: 2006–11 12,662 600 697 441 256
Five-Year: 2011–16 13,261 614 702 471 231
Annual: 2016–17 13,875 197 140 102 39
Annual: 2017–18 14,073 246 142 106 36
Annual: 2018–19 14,319 248 146 109 37
Components of change (000s)22 – year beginning July 1st
Migration - International Migration
Period Immigrants Net emigrants Net Non permanent residents Net
Five-Year: 2001–06 653 125 44 573
Five-Year: 2006–11 558 104 57 511
Five-Year: 2011–16 519 123 85 481
Annual: 2016–17 98 20 67 145
Annual: 2017–18 132 20 87 200
Annual: 2018–19 139 21 81 200
Components of change (000s)23 – year beginning July 1st
Migration - Interprovincial Migration
Period In Out Net
Five-Year: 2001–06 307 336 −30
Five-Year 2006–11 296 355 −59
Five-Year: 2011–16 307 346 −39
Annual: 2016–17 72 58 13
Annual: 2017–18 70 60 10
Annual: 2018–19 77 66 12

[1], [3], [5], [7], [19] Statistics Canada’s population estimates based on the 2016 Census.

[2], [4], [6], [13], [20] All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Summer 2019), except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.

[8], [14] Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.

[9], [10], [11], [15], [16], [17] Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates represent three-year
averages (e.g., 2006 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2005-2007).

[12], [18] Households are Census data.

[21], [22], [23] In the “Components of Change” table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.

Note: All population figures are for July 1st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

September 30, 2019

Office of Economic Policy

Accessible Image Description:

This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the second quarter of 2019 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2014-2018). In the second quarter of 2019, all components except emigration were higher than the average of second quarters of the previous five years.

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