Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of Second Quarter 2017

September 27, 2017

Population Growth

Population Growth, Ontario,
2nd Quarter, 2017

(Thousands)
Population, April 1, 2017
14,124.3
Plus Births 36.9
Minus Deaths 25.6
Plus Immigrants 27.2
Minus Emigrants* 2.7
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents 26.0
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals 29.0
Minus Interprovincial Departures 21.8
Population, July 1, 2017 14,193.4
* Emigrants plus net change in temporary
emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada

Ontario’s population reached 14,193,384 on July 1, 2017, with an increase of 69,079 people in the second quarter of 2017. This compares to an increase of 61,709 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Births and Deaths

There were 36,882 births and 25,582 deaths during the second quarter of 2017, representing increases of 2.2% and 3.4% respectively from the same quarter of 2016.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 11,300 in the quarter, down slightly from 11,355 in the same quarter of 2016.

International Migration

Immigration to Ontario was 27,243 in the second quarter of 2017, down from 32,243 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 34.9% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, down from 36.5% in the same quarter of 2016. Over the last 12 months Ontario received 98,409 immigrants, down from 120,338 during the previous year.

There were 2,747 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, similar to the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 33.2% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) increased by 26,017 to 414,693 in the second quarter.

In summary, there was a net international migration gain of 50,513 in the second quarter, up from a net gain of 46,125 in the same quarter of 2016.

Interprovincial Migration

In the second quarter of 2017, Ontario had a net inflow of 7,266 people from other provinces and territories compared to a net gain of 4,229 people in the same quarter of 2016. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with all other provinces and the Northwest Territories, with the largest net gains coming from Quebec (3,152) and Alberta (1,648). Small net losses to the Yukon (100) and Nunavut (78) were recorded. Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration gain was 25,689 compared to a net gain of 9,077 during the previous year.

Year-Over-Year Growth

Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s population grew by 217,164 or 1.6%, higher than growth of 186,723 during the previous year. Among the provinces, only Prince Edward Island (1.7%) had a faster population growth rate than Ontario. Canada’s population grew at a rate of 1.2% over the period.

For more information contact Alex Munger (416) 325-0102.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet

POPULATION (000s) - Estimates1
  2001 2006 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Canada 31,021 32,571 34,343 35,152 35,535 35,833 36,265 36,708
Ontario 11,897 12,662 13,264 13,556 13,680 13,790 13,976 14,193
Ontario as % of Canada 38.4 38.9 38.6 38.6 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.7
Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate
(Over previous year shown)
1.4 1.3 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.6
POPULATION (000s) - MOF Projections2
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Canada 37,998 39,727 41,373 42,903 44,353
Ontario 14,980 15,823 16,659 17,458 18,222
Ontario as % of Canada 39.4 39.8 40.3 40.7 41.1
Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate
(Over previous year shown)
1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%) - Estimates3
  2001 2006 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0–4 5.9 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1
5–14 13.5 12.3 11.2 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.6
15–24 13.4 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.2 13.1 13.0
25–44 31.6 29.4 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.9
45–64 23.2 26.0 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7
65–74 7.0 6.9 7.6 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.4
75+ 5.5 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%) - MOF Projections4
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0–4 5.3 5.4 5.2 4.9 4.8
5–14 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.2
15–24 12.0 11.5 11.4 11.5 11.7
25–44 27.3 27.0 26.0 25.1 24.1
45–64 26.6 24.8 23.5 23.6 24.2
65–74 10.4 11.4 12.0 11.2 10.2
75+ 8.0 9.6 11.3 13.2 14.9
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%) - Estimates5
  2001 2006 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0–14 19.4 17.8 16.6 16.2 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.7
15–64 68.1 69.2 69.1 68.6 68.3 68.1 67.8 67.6
65+ 12.5 13.0 14.2 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.4 16.7
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%) - MOF Projections6
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0–14 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.4 14.9
15–64 65.9 63.3 61.0 60.1 60.1
65+ 18.4 21.0 23.3 24.5 25.0
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS - Estimates7
  2001 2006 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total Dependency Ratio (%)8 63.0 60.6 60.3 60.9 61.2 61.5 61.7 62.0
Median Age (yrs.) 36.7 38.4 39.8 40.2 40.4 40.6 40.7 40.6
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) 36-55 41-60 46-65 48-67 49-68 50-69 51-70 52-71
Total Fertility Rate9 1.53 1.55 1.55 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)10 82.1 83.1 84.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)11 77.5 78.8 79.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Families (000s) 3,257 3,539 3,723 3,789 3,828 3,860 3,897 n.a.
Households (000s)12 4,219 4,555 4,888 n.a. n.a. n.a. 5,169 n.a.
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS - MOF Projections13
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Total Dependency Ratio (%)14 65.7 73.0 79.9 83.2 83.7
Median Age (yrs.) 41.0 41.8 42.6 43.6 44.4
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) 56-75 61-80 66-85 71-90 76-95
Total Fertility Rate15 1.56 1.58 1.59 1.60 1.60
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)16 85.8 86.5 87.3 88.0 88.7
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)17 82.4 83.5 84.6 85.6 86.6
Families (000s)  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.
Households (000s)18  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%) - Estimates19
  2001 2006 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
GTA 44.5 45.8 47.2 47.7 47.9 48.0 48.3 n.a.
Central 22.1 22.0 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.5 21.4 n.a.
Eastern 13.5 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.0 n.a.
Southwestern 13.0 12.6 12.0 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.6 n.a.
Northeastern 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 n.a.
Northwestern 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 n.a.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%) - MOF Projections20
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
GTA 49.3 50.2 51.1 51.9 52.7
Central 21.2 21.0 20.9 20.7 20.6
Eastern 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.5 12.3
Southwestern 11.2 10.9 10.6 10.3 10.1
Northeastern 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0
Northwestern 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)21 – Year Beginning July 1st
Period Population,
Beginning of Period
Total Change Births Deaths Natural Increase
Five-Year: 2006–11 12,662 602 697 441 256
Five-Year: 2011–16 13,264 713 708 477 231
Annual: 2012–13 13,414 142 141 93 48
Annual: 2013–14 13,556 125 141 95 45
Annual: 2014–15 13,680 109 142 98 43
Annual: 2015–16 13,790 187 144 102 42
Annual: 2016–17 13,976 217 147 105 41
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)22 – Year Beginning July 1st
Migration - International Migration
Period Immigration Net Emigration Net NPRs Net
Five-Year: 2006–11 558 89 57 525
Five-Year: 2011–16 519 88 89 521
Annual: 2012–13 106 16 19 108
Annual: 2013–14 102 19 11 94
Annual: 2014–15 90 18 2 74
Annual: 2015–16 120 18 33 136
Annual: 2016–17 98 18 69 150
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)23 – Year Beginning July 1st
Migration - Interprovincial Migration
Period In Out Net
Five-Year: 2006–11 296 355 -59
Five-Year: 2011–16 307 346 -39
Annual: 2012–13 55 69 -14
Annual: 2013–14 57 72 -15
Annual: 2014–15 63 72 -9
Annual: 2015–16 72 63 9
Annual: 2016–17 84 58 26

[1], [3], [5], [7], [19] Statistics Canada’s population estimates, based on the 2011 Census.

[2], [4], [6], [13], [20] Except for Canada, projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2017). Projections for Canada are from Statistics Canada (based on 2011 Census).

[8], [14] Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.

[9], [10], [11], [15], [16], [17] Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates for years after 2006 represent three-year averages (e.g., 2006 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2005-2007).

[12], [18] Households are Census data.

[21], [22], [23] In the “Components of Change” table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.

Note: All population figures are for July 1st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

September 27, 2017

Office of Economic Policy
Labour Economics Branch

Accessible Image Description:

This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the second quarter of 2017 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2012-2016). In the second quarter of 2017, all components were higher than the average of first quarters of the previous five years, with the exception of immigration.

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