Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of Second Quarter 2017

September 27, 2017

Population Growth

Ontario’s population reached 14,193,384 on July 1, 2017, with an increase of 69,079 people in the second quarter of 2017. This compares to an increase of 61,709 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Births and Deaths

There were 36,882 births and 25,582 deaths during the second quarter of 2017, representing increases of 2.2% and 3.4% respectively from the same quarter of 2016.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 11,300 in the quarter, down slightly from 11,355 in the same quarter of 2016.

International Migration

Immigration to Ontario was 27,243 in the second quarter of 2017, down from 32,243 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 34.9% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, down from 36.5% in the same quarter of 2016. Over the last 12 months Ontario received 98,409 immigrants, down from 120,338 during the previous year.

There were 2,747 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, similar to the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 33.2% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) increased by 26,017 to 414,693 in the second quarter.

In summary, there was a net international migration gain of 50,513 in the second quarter, up from a net gain of 46,125 in the same quarter of 2016.

Interprovincial Migration

In the second quarter of 2017, Ontario had a net inflow of 7,266 people from other provinces and territories compared to a net gain of 4,229 people in the same quarter of 2016. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with all other provinces and the Northwest Territories, with the largest net gains coming from Quebec (3,152) and Alberta (1,648). Small net losses to the Yukon (100) and Nunavut (78) were recorded. Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration gain was 25,689 compared to a net gain of 9,077 during the previous year.

Year-Over-Year Growth

Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s population grew by 217,164 or 1.6%, higher than growth of 186,723 during the previous year. Among the provinces, only Prince Edward Island (1.7%) had a faster population growth rate than Ontario. Canada’s population grew at a rate of 1.2% over the period.

For more information contact Alex Munger (416) 325-0102.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet

POPULATION (000s) - Estimates¹

	2001	2006	2011	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Canada	31,021	32,571	34,343	35,152	35,535	35,833	36,265	36,708
Ontario	11,897	12,662	13,264	13,556	13,680	13,790	13,976	14,193
Ontario as % of Canada	38.4	38.9	38.6	38.6	38.5	38.5	38.5	38.7
Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate (Over previous year shown)	1.4	1.3	0.9	1.1	0.9	0.8	1.4	1.6

POPULATION (000s) - MOF Projections²

	2021	2026	2031	2036	2041
Canada	37,998	39,727	41,373	42,903	44,353
Ontario	14,980	15,823	16,659	17,458	18,222
Ontario as % of Canada	39.4	39.8	40.3	40.7	41.1
Ontario Ave. Annual Growth Rate (Over previous year shown)	1.4	1.1	1.0	0.9	0.9

AGE DISTRIBUTION (%) - Estimates³

	2001	2006	2011	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
0–4	5.9	5.5	5.4	5.3	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.1
5–14	13.5	12.3	11.2	10.9	10.8	10.7	10.7	10.6
15–24	13.4	13.8	13.7	13.6	13.4	13.2	13.1	13.0
25–44	31.6	29.4	27.1	26.8	26.7	26.7	26.8	26.9
45–64	23.2	26.0	28.4	28.2	28.2	28.1	28.0	27.7
65–74	7.0	6.9	7.6	8.4	8.7	9.0	9.2	9.4
75+	5.5	6.2	6.6	6.8	7.0	7.1	7.2	7.3

AGE DISTRIBUTION (%) - MOF Projections⁴

	2021	2026	2031	2036	2041
0–4	5.3	5.4	5.2	4.9	4.8
5–14	10.4	10.4	10.5	10.5	10.2
15–24	12.0	11.5	11.4	11.5	11.7
25–44	27.3	27.0	26.0	25.1	24.1
45–64	26.6	24.8	23.5	23.6	24.2
65–74	10.4	11.4	12.0	11.2	10.2
75+	8.0	9.6	11.3	13.2	14.9

SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%) - Estimates⁵

	2001	2006	2011	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
0–14	19.4	17.8	16.6	16.2	16.0	15.9	15.8	15.7
15–64	68.1	69.2	69.1	68.6	68.3	68.1	67.8	67.6
65+	12.5	13.0	14.2	15.2	15.6	16.1	16.4	16.7

SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%) - MOF Projections⁶

	2021	2026	2031	2036	2041
0–14	15.7	15.7	15.7	15.4	14.9
15–64	65.9	63.3	61.0	60.1	60.1
65+	18.4	21.0	23.3	24.5	25.0

OTHER CHARACTERISTICS - Estimates⁷

	2001	2006	2011	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Total Dependency Ratio (%)8	63.0	60.6	60.3	60.9	61.2	61.5	61.7	62.0
Median Age (yrs.)	36.7	38.4	39.8	40.2	40.4	40.6	40.7	40.6
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.)	36-55	41-60	46-65	48-67	49-68	50-69	51-70	52-71
Total Fertility Rate9	1.53	1.55	1.55	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)10	82.1	83.1	84.0	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)11	77.5	78.8	79.8	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Families (000s)	3,257	3,539	3,723	3,789	3,828	3,860	3,897	n.a.
Households (000s)12	4,219	4,555	4,888	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	5,169	n.a.

OTHER CHARACTERISTICS - MOF Projections¹³

	2021	2026	2031	2036	2041
Total Dependency Ratio (%)14	65.7	73.0	79.9	83.2	83.7
Median Age (yrs.)	41.0	41.8	42.6	43.6	44.4
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.)	56-75	61-80	66-85	71-90	76-95
Total Fertility Rate15	1.56	1.58	1.59	1.60	1.60
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)16	85.8	86.5	87.3	88.0	88.7
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)17	82.4	83.5	84.6	85.6	86.6
Families (000s)	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Households (000s)18	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.

REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%) - Estimates¹⁹

	2001	2006	2011	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
GTA	44.5	45.8	47.2	47.7	47.9	48.0	48.3	n.a.
Central	22.1	22.0	21.6	21.5	21.4	21.5	21.4	n.a.
Eastern	13.5	13.2	13.2	13.1	13.1	13.1	13.0	n.a.
Southwestern	13.0	12.6	12.0	11.8	11.7	11.7	11.6	n.a.
Northeastern	4.8	4.5	4.3	4.2	4.1	4.1	4.0	n.a.
Northwestern	2.1	1.9	1.8	1.8	1.8	1.7	1.7	n.a.

REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%) - MOF Projections²⁰

	2021	2026	2031	2036	2041
GTA	49.3	50.2	51.1	51.9	52.7
Central	21.2	21.0	20.9	20.7	20.6
Eastern	12.9	12.8	12.6	12.5	12.3
Southwestern	11.2	10.9	10.6	10.3	10.1
Northeastern	3.7	3.5	3.3	3.1	3.0
Northwestern	1.6	1.5	1.5	1.4	1.3

COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)²¹ – Year Beginning July 1st

Period	Population, Beginning of Period	Total Change	Births	Deaths	Natural Increase
Five-Year: 2006–11	12,662	602	697	441	256
Five-Year: 2011–16	13,264	713	708	477	231
Annual: 2012–13	13,414	142	141	93	48
Annual: 2013–14	13,556	125	141	95	45
Annual: 2014–15	13,680	109	142	98	43
Annual: 2015–16	13,790	187	144	102	42
Annual: 2016–17	13,976	217	147	105	41

COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)²² – Year Beginning July 1st
Migration - International Migration

Period	Immigration	Net Emigration	Net NPRs	Net
Five-Year: 2006–11	558	89	57	525
Five-Year: 2011–16	519	88	89	521
Annual: 2012–13	106	16	19	108
Annual: 2013–14	102	19	11	94
Annual: 2014–15	90	18	2	74
Annual: 2015–16	120	18	33	136
Annual: 2016–17	98	18	69	150

COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)²³ – Year Beginning July 1st
Migration - Interprovincial Migration

Period	In	Out	Net
Five-Year: 2006–11	296	355	-59
Five-Year: 2011–16	307	346	-39
Annual: 2012–13	55	69	-14
Annual: 2013–14	57	72	-15
Annual: 2014–15	63	72	-9
Annual: 2015–16	72	63	9
Annual: 2016–17	84	58	26

^{[1], [3], [5], [7], [19]} Statistics Canada’s population estimates, based on the 2011 Census.

^{[2], [4], [6], [13], [20]} Except for Canada, projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2017). Projections for Canada are from Statistics Canada (based on 2011 Census).

^{[8], [14]} Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.

^{[9], [10], [11], [15], [16], [17]} Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates for years after 2006 represent three-year averages (e.g., 2006 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2005-2007).

^{[12], [18]} Households are Census data.

^{[21], [22], [23]} In the “Components of Change” table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.

Note: All population figures are for July 1^st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

September 27, 2017