September 27, 2018
Population Growth
Population Growth, Ontario, |
|
| (Thousands) | |
| Population, April 1, 2018 | 14,246.0 |
|---|---|
| Plus Births | 36.9 |
| Minus Deaths | 25.7 |
| Plus Immigrants | 37.8 |
| Minus Emigrants* | 3.8 |
| Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents | 28.3 |
| Plus Interprovincial Arrivals | 28.8 |
| Minus Interprovincial Departures | 25.5 |
| Population, July 1, 2018 | 14,322.8 |
| * Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians. |
|
| Source: Statistics Canada | |
Ontario’s population reached 14,322,757 on July 1, 2018, with an increase of 76,722 people during the second quarter of 2018. This compares to an increase of 63,960 in the same quarter of the previous year.
Births and Deaths
There were 36,857 births and 25,737 deaths during the second quarter of 2018, representing increases of 2.5% and 3.3% respectively from the same quarter of 2017.
Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 11,120 in the quarter, up slightly from 11,044 in the same quarter of 2017.
International Migration
Immigration to Ontario was 37,755 in the second quarter of 2018, up from 27,244 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 43.1% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, up from 34.9% in the same quarter of 2017. Over the last 12 months, Ontario received 132,417 immigrants, up from 98,428 during the previous year.
There were 3,756 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, similar to the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 41.1% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.
The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) increased by 28,329 to 497,488 in the
second quarter.
In summary, there was a net international migration gain of 62,328 in the second quarter, up from a net gain of 49,680 in the same quarter of 2017.
Interprovincial Migration
In the second quarter of 2018, Ontario had a net inflow of 3,274 people from other provinces and territories compared to a net gain of 3,236 people in the same quarter of 2017. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with six of the 12 other provinces and territories. The largest gains came from Quebec (2,258) and Manitoba (958). The largest losses were to Nova Scotia (−461) and British Columbia (−198). Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration gain was 17,886, compared to a net gain of 13,382 during the previous year.
Year-Over-Year Growth
Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s population grew by 251,312 or 1.8%, higher than growth of 196,051 during the previous year. Among the provinces, Ontario had the fastest population growth rate, followed by Prince Edward Island (1.8%) and Alberta (1.5%). Canada’s population grew at a rate of 1.4% over the period.
For more information contact Alex Munger (416) 325-0102.
Ontario Demographic Factsheet
| 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 31,021 | 32,571 | 34,339 | 36,109 | 36,540 | 37,059 |
| Ontario | 11,898 | 12,662 | 13,261 | 13,875 | 14,071 | 14,323 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 38.4 | 38.9 | 38.6 | 38.4 | 38.5 | 38.6 |
| Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 37,998 | 39,727 | 41,373 | 42,903 | 44,353 |
| Ontario | 15,054 | 15,929 | 16,795 | 17,642 | 18,478 |
| Ontario as % of Canada | 39.6 | 40.1 | 40.6 | 41.1 | 41.7 |
| Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.1 | n.a. |
| 5–14 | 13.5 | 12.3 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 10.6 | n.a. |
| 15–24 | 13.4 | 13.8 | 13.7 | 13.1 | 13.0 | n.a. |
| 25–44 | 31.6 | 29.4 | 27.1 | 26.8 | 26.9 | n.a. |
| 45–64 | 23.2 | 26.0 | 28.4 | 28.0 | 27.7 | n.a. |
| 65–74 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 9.4 | n.a. |
| 75+ | 5.5 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 7.3 | n.a. |
| 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| 5–14 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.0 |
| 15–24 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.6 |
| 25–44 | 27.6 | 27.4 | 26.6 | 25.6 | 24.5 |
| 45–64 | 26.4 | 24.7 | 23.5 | 23.6 | 24.3 |
| 65–74 | 10.4 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 11.2 | 10.1 |
| 75+ | 8.0 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 14.7 |
| 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 19.4 | 17.8 | 16.6 | 15.8 | 15.7 | n.a. |
| 15–64 | 68.1 | 69.2 | 69.1 | 67.8 | 67.6 | n.a. |
| 65+ | 12.5 | 13.0 | 14.2 | 16.4 | 16.7 | n.a. |
| 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 15.4 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.1 | 14.8 |
| 15–64 | 66.2 | 63.8 | 61.6 | 60.7 | 60.4 |
| 65+ | 18.3 | 20.9 | 23.1 | 24.3 | 24.8 |
| 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total dependency ratio (%)8 | 63.0 | 60.6 | 60.3 | 61.7 | 62.0 | n.a. |
| Median age (years) | 36.7 | 38.4 | 39.8 | 40.7 | 40.6 | n.a. |
| Age span of baby boom (years) | 36-55 | 41-60 | 46-65 | 51-70 | 52-71 | 53-72 |
| Total fertility rate9 | 1.53 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.46 | n.a. | n.a. |
| Female life expectancy at birth (years)10 | 82.1 | 83.1 | 84.0 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Male life expectancy at birth (years)11 | 77.5 | 78.8 | 79.8 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Families (000s) | 3,257 | 3,539 | 3,723 | 3,900 | 3,937 | n.a. |
| Households (000s)12 | 4,219 | 4,555 | 4,888 | 5,169 | n.a. | n.a. |
| 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total dependency ratio (%)14 | 64.9 | 71.7 | 78.0 | 81.1 | 82.1 |
| Median age (years) | 40.8 | 41.6 | 42.5 | 43.5 | 44.3 |
| Age span of baby boom (years) | 56-75 | 61-80 | 66-85 | 71-90 | 76-95 |
| Total fertility rate15 | 1.48 | 1.49 | 1.52 | 1.56 | 1.60 |
| Female life expectancy at birth (years)16 | 85.5 | 86.4 | 87.2 | 87.9 | 88.7 |
| Male life expectancy at birth (years)17 | 82.1 | 83.3 | 84.5 | 85.5 | 86.6 |
| Families (000s) | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Households (000s)18 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area | 44.5 | 45.8 | 47.2 | 48.3 | 48.3 | n.a. |
| Central | 22.1 | 22.0 | 21.6 | 21.4 | 21.4 | n.a. |
| Eastern | 13.5 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 13.0 | 13.0 | n.a. |
| Southwestern | 13.0 | 12.6 | 12.0 | 11.6 | 11.6 | n.a. |
| Northeastern | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | n.a. |
| Northwestern | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | n.a. |
| 2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area | 49.2 | 50.1 | 50.8 | 51.6 | 52.3 |
| Central | 21.3 | 21.2 | 21.1 | 21.0 | 20.9 |
| Eastern | 12.9 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 12.4 | 12.3 |
| Southwestern | 11.3 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 10.3 |
| Northeastern | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Northwestern | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Period | Population, Beginning of Period |
Total Change | Births | Deaths | Natural Increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 11,898 | 764 | 658 | 418 | 240 |
| Five-Year: 2006-11 | 12,662 | 600 | 697 | 441 | 256 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 13,261 | 614 | 702 | 471 | 231 |
| Annual: 2016–17 | 13,875 | 196 | 142 | 101 | 41 |
| Annual: 2017–18 | 14,071 | 251 | 145 | 104 | 41 |
| Period | Immigrants | Net emigrants | Net Non permanent residents | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 653 | 125 | 44 | 573 |
| Five-Year: 2006-11 | 558 | 104 | 57 | 511 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 519 | 123 | 85 | 481 |
| Annual: 2016–17 | 98 | 25 | 69 | 142 |
| Annual: 2017–18 | 132 | 25 | 86 | 193 |
| Period | In | Out | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year: 2001–06 | 307 | 336 | -30 |
| Five-Year 2006-11 | 296 | 355 | -59 |
| Five-Year: 2011–16 | 307 | 346 | -39 |
| Annual: 2016–17 | 72 | 58 | 13 |
| Annual: 2017–18 | 80 | 62 | 18 |
[1], [3], [5], [7], [19] Statistics Canada’s population estimates for total population and components of growth are based on the 2016 Census (shaded areas). All other estimates are based on the 2011 Census.
[2], [4], [6], [13], [20] Except for Canada, projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2018). Projections for Canada are fromStatistics Canada (based on 2011 Census).
[8], [14] Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
[9], [10], [11], [15], [16], [17] Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates represent three-year averages (e.g., 2006 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2005-2007).
[12], [18] Households are Census data.
[21], [22], [23] In the “Components of Change” table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.
Note: All population figures are for July 1st.
Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.
September 27, 2018
Office of Economic Policy
Accessible Image Description:
This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the second quarter of 2018 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2013-2017). In the second quarter of 2018, all components were higher than the average of second quarters of the previous five years, with the exception of emigration.