Ontario Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of Third Quarter 2018

December 20, 2017

Population Growth

Population Growth, Ontario,
3rd Quarter, 2018

(Thousands)
Population, July 1, 2018
14,322.8
Plus Births 39.3
Minus Deaths 25.0
Plus Immigrants 33.2
Minus Emigrants* 7.0
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents 40.5
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals 24.7
Minus Interprovincial Departures 17.1
Population, October 1, 2018 14,411.4
* Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants
minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada

Ontario’s population reached 14,411,424 on October 1, 2018, with an increase of 88,667 people during the third quarter of 2018. This compares to an increase of 82,361 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Births and Deaths

There were 39,334 births and 25,049 deaths during the third quarter of 2018, representing increases of 2.1% and 3.7% respectively from the same quarter of 2017.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 14,285 in the quarter, down slightly from 14,379 in the same quarter of 2017.

International Migration

Immigration to Ontario was 33,237 in the third quarter of 2018, up from 28,050 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 40.4% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, up from 40.0% in the same quarter of 2017. Over the last 12 months, Ontario received 137,604 immigrants, up from 101,700 during the previous year.

There were 6,987 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, similar to the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 46.0% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) increased by 40,495 to 541,222 in the third quarter.

In summary, there was a net international migration gain of 66,745 in the third quarter, up from a net gain of 60,795 in the same quarter of 2017.

Interprovincial Migration

In the third quarter of 2018, Ontario had a net inflow of 7,637 people from other provinces and territories compared to a net gain of 7,187 people in the same quarter of 2017. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with all other provinces and territories, except Nova Scotia (-242). The largest gains came from Quebec (2,601) and Manitoba (1,479). Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration gain was 18,336, compared to a net gain of 12,907 during the previous year.

Year-Over-Year Growth

Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s population grew by 257,618 or 1.8%, higher than growth of 208,282 during the previous year. Among the provinces, Ontario had the second fastest population growth rate, after Prince Edward Island (2.2%). Canada’s population grew at a rate of 1.4% over the period.

For more information contact Alex Munger (416) 325-0102.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet

Population (000s) - Estimates1
  2001 2006 2011 2016 2017 2018
Canada 31,021 32,571 34,339 36,109 36,540 37,059
Ontario 11,898 12,662 13,261 13,875 14,071 14,323
Ontario as % of Canada 38.4 38.9 38.6 38.4 38.5 38.6
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.8
Population (000s) - MOF Projections2
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Canada 37,998 39,727 41,373 42,903 44,353
Ontario 15,054 15,929 16,795 17,642 18,478
Ontario as % of Canada 39.6 40.1 40.6 41.1 41.7
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown) 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9
Age distribution (%) - Estimates3
  2001 2006 2011 2016 2017 2018
0–4 5.9 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.1 n.a.
5–14 13.5 12.3 11.2 10.7 10.6 n.a.
15–24 13.4 13.8 13.7 13.1 13.0 n.a.
25–44 31.6 29.4 27.1 26.8 26.9 n.a.
45–64 23.2 26.0 28.4 28.0 27.7 n.a.
65–74 7.0 6.9 7.6 9.2 9.4 n.a.
75+ 5.5 6.2 6.6 7.2 7.3 n.a.
Age distribution (%) - MOF Projections4
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0–4 5.1 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.8
5–14 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.0
15–24 12.2 11.7 11.5 11.5 11.6
25–44 27.6 27.4 26.6 25.6 24.5
45–64 26.4 24.7 23.5 23.6 24.3
65–74 10.4 11.3 11.9 11.2 10.1
75+ 8.0 9.5 11.2 13.1 14.7
Selected age groups (%) - Estimates5
  2001 2006 2011 2016 2017 2018
0–14 19.4 17.8 16.6 15.8 15.7 n.a.
15–64 68.1 69.2 69.1 67.8 67.6 n.a.
65+ 12.5 13.0 14.2 16.4 16.7 n.a.
Selected age groups (%) - MOF Projections6
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0–14 15.4 15.3 15.3 15.1 14.8
15–64 66.2 63.8 61.6 60.7 60.4
65+ 18.3 20.9 23.1 24.3 24.8
Other characteristics - Estimates7
  2001 2006 2011 2016 2017 2018
Total dependency ratio (%)8 63.0 60.6 60.3 61.7 62.0 n.a.
Median age (years) 36.7 38.4 39.8 40.7 40.6 n.a.
Age span of baby boom (years) 36-55 41-60 46-65 51-70 52-71 53-72
Total fertility rate9 1.53 1.55 1.56 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Female life expectancy at birth (years)10 82.1 83.1 84.0 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Male life expectancy at birth (years)11 77.5 78.8 79.8 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Families (000s) 3,257 3,539 3,723 3,900 3,937 n.a.
Households (000s)12 4,219 4,555 4,888 5,169 n.a. n.a.
Other characteristics - MOF Projections13
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Total dependency ratio (%)14 64.9 71.7 78.0 81.1 82.1
Median age (years) 40.8 41.6 42.5 43.5 44.3
Age span of baby boom (years) 56-75 61-80 66-85 71-90 76-95
Total fertility rate15 1.48 1.49 1.52 1.56 1.60
Female life expectancy at birth (years)16 85.5 86.4 87.2 87.9 88.7
Male life expectancy at birth (years)17 82.1 83.3 84.5 85.5 86.6
Families (000s)  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.
Households (000s)18  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.
Regional distribution (%) - Estimates19
  2001 2006 2011 2016 2017 2018
Greater Toronto Area 44.5 45.8 47.2 48.3 48.3 n.a.
Central 22.1 22.0 21.6 21.4 21.4 n.a.
Eastern 13.5 13.2 13.2 13.0 13.0 n.a.
Southwestern 13.0 12.6 12.0 11.6 11.6 n.a.
Northeastern 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.0 3.9 n.a.
Northwestern 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 n.a.
Regional distribution (%) - MOF Projections20
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Greater Toronto Area 49.2 50.1 50.8 51.6 52.3
Central 21.3 21.2 21.1 21.0 20.9
Eastern 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.3
Southwestern 11.3 11.0 10.8 10.5 10.3
Northeastern 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9
Northwestern 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3
Components of change (000s)21 – year beginning July 1st
Period Population,
Beginning of Period
Total Change Births Deaths Natural Increase
Five-Year: 2001–06 11,898 764 658 418 240
Five-Year: 2006-11 12,662 600 697 441 256
Five-Year: 2011–16 13,261 614 702 471 231
Annual: 2016–17 13,875 196 142 101 41
Annual: 2017–18 14,071 251 145 104 41
Components of change (000s)22 – year beginning July 1st
Migration - International Migration
Period Immigrants Net emigrants Net Non permanent residents Net
Five-Year: 2001–06 653 125 44 573
Five-Year: 2006-11 558 104 57 511
Five-Year: 2011–16 519 123 85 481
Annual: 2016–17 98 25 69 142
Annual: 2017–18 132 25 86 193
Components of change (000s)23 – year beginning July 1st
Migration - Interprovincial Migration
Period In Out Net
Five-Year: 2001–06 307 336 -30
Five-Year 2006-11 296 355 -59
Five-Year: 2011–16 307 346 -39
Annual: 2016–17 72 58 13
Annual: 2017–18 80 62 18

[1], [3], [5], [7], [19] Statistics Canada’s population estimates for total population and components of growth are based on the 2016 Census (shaded areas). All other estimates are based on the 2011 Census.

[2], [4], [6], [13], [20] Except for Canada, projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2018). Projections for Canada are fromStatistics Canada (based on 2011 Census).

[8], [14] Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.

[9], [10], [11], [15], [16], [17] Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates represent three-year averages (e.g., 2006 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2005-2007).

[12], [18] Households are Census data.

[21], [22], [23] In the “Components of Change” table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.

Note: All population figures are for July 1st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

December 20, 2018

Office of Economic Policy
Labour Economics Branch

Accessible Image Description:

This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the third quarter of 2018 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2013-2017). In the third quarter of 2018, all components were higher than the average of third quarters of the previous five years.

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