Ontario Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of Fourth Quarter 2017

March 22, 2018

Population Growth

Population Growth, Ontario,
4th Quarter, 2017

(Thousands)
Population, October 1, 2017
14,279.2
Plus Births 36.6
Minus Deaths 27.6
Plus Immigrants 31.4
Minus Emigrants* 4.7
Plus Net Change in Non-Permanent Residents -0.6
Plus Interprovincial Arrivals 15.3
Minus Interprovincial Departures 11.0
Population, January 1, 2018 14,318.8
* Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants
minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada

Ontario’s population reached 14,318,750 on January 1, 2018, with an increase of 39,554 people during the fourth quarter of 2017. This compares to an increase of 31,139 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Births and Deaths

There were 36,634 births and 27,563 deaths during the fourth quarter of 2017, representing increases of 2.2% and 3.3% respectively from the same quarter of 2017.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 9,071 in the quarter, down slightly from 9,160 in the same quarter of 2017.

International Migration

Immigration to Ontario was 31,390 in the fourth quarter of 2017, up from 21,127 in the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 47.9% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, up from 39.4% in the same quarter of 2016. Over the last 12 months Ontario received 111,955 immigrants, up from 110,054 during the previous year.

There were 4,671 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, similar to the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 37.1% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers, refugee claimants) decreased by 612 to 453,943 in the
fourth quarter.

In summary, there was a net international migration gain of 26,107 in the fourth quarter, up from a net gain of 17,967 in the same quarter of 2016.

Interprovincial Migration

In the fourth quarter of 2017, Ontario had a net inflow of 4,376 people from other provinces and territories compared to a net gain of 4,012 people in the same quarter of 2016. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with all other provinces and territories, with the largest gains coming from Quebec (1,137) and Manitoba (736). Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration gain was 22,143 compared to a net gain of 21,569 during the previous year.

Year-Over-Year Growth

Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s population grew by 233,953 or 1.7%, higher than growth of 216,727 during the previous year. Among the provinces, Ontario and Prince Edward Island (also 1.7%) had the fastest population growth rates. Canada’s population grew at a rate of 1.3% over the period.

For more information contact Alex Munger (416) 325-0102.

Ontario Demographic Factsheet

POPULATION (000s) - Estimates1
  2001 2006 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Canada 31,021 32,571 34,343 35,152 35,535 35,833 36,265 36,708
Ontario 11,897 12,662 13,264 13,556 13,680 13,790 13,976 14,193
Ontario as % of Canada 38.4 38.9 38.6 38.6 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.7
Ontario Average Annual Growth Rate (Over previous year shown) 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.6
POPULATION (000s) - MOF Projections2
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Canada 37,998 39,727 41,373 42,903 44,353
Ontario 14,980 15,823 16,659 17,458 18,222
Ontario as % of Canada 39.4 39.8 40.3 40.7 41.1
Ontario Average Annual Growth Rate
(Over previous year shown)
1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%) - Estimates3
  2001 2006 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0–4 5.9 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1
5–14 13.5 12.3 11.2 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.6
15–24 13.4 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.2 13.1 13.0
25–44 31.6 29.4 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.9
45–64 23.2 26.0 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7
65–74 7.0 6.9 7.6 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.4
75+ 5.5 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3
AGE DISTRIBUTION (%) - MOF Projections4
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0–4 5.3 5.4 5.2 4.9 4.8
5–14 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.2
15–24 12.0 11.5 11.4 11.5 11.7
25–44 27.3 27.0 26.0 25.1 24.1
45–64 26.6 24.8 23.5 23.6 24.2
65–74 10.4 11.4 12.0 11.2 10.2
75+ 8.0 9.6 11.3 13.2 14.9
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%) - Estimates5
  2001 2006 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0–14 19.4 17.8 16.6 16.2 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.7
15–64 68.1 69.2 69.1 68.6 68.3 68.1 67.8 67.6
65+ 12.5 13.0 14.2 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.4 16.7
SELECTED AGE GROUPS (%) - MOF Projections6
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
0–14 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.4 14.9
15–64 65.9 63.3 61.0 60.1 60.1
65+ 18.4 21.0 23.3 24.5 25.0
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS - Estimates7
  2001 2006 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total Dependency Ratio (%)8 63.0 60.6 60.3 60.9 61.2 61.5 61.7 62.0
Median Age (yrs.) 36.7 38.4 39.8 40.2 40.4 40.6 40.7 40.6
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) 36-55 41-60 46-65 48-67 49-68 50-69 51-70 52-71
Total Fertility Rate9 1.53 1.55 1.55 1.51 1.50 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)10 82.1 83.1 84.0 84.3 84.4 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)11 77.5 78.8 79.8 80.2 80.4 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Families (000s) 3,257 3,539 3,723 3,790 3,828 3,862 3,900 3,937
Households (000s)12 4,219 4,555 4,888 n.a. n.a. n.a. 5,169 n.a.
OTHER CHARACTERISTICS - MOF Projections13
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Total Dependency Ratio (%)14 65.7 73.0 79.9 83.2 83.7
Median Age (yrs.) 41.0 41.8 42.6 43.6 44.4
Age Span of Baby Boom (yrs.) 56-75 61-80 66-85 71-90 76-95
Total Fertility Rate15 1.56 1.58 1.59 1.60 1.60
Female Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)16 85.8 86.5 87.3 88.0 88.7
Male Life Expectancy at Birth (yrs.)17 82.4 83.5 84.6 85.6 86.6
Families (000s)  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.
Households (000s)18  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.  n.a.
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%) - Estimates19
  2001 2006 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
GTA 44.5 45.8 47.2 47.7 47.9 48.0 48.3 48.3
Central 22.1 22.0 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.5 21.4 21.4
Eastern 13.5 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.0
Southwestern 13.0 12.6 12.0 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.6
Northeastern 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9
Northwestern 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION (%) - MOF Projections20
  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
GTA 49.3 50.2 51.1 51.9 52.7
Central 21.2 21.0 20.9 20.7 20.6
Eastern 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.5 12.3
Southwestern 11.2 10.9 10.6 10.3 10.1
Northeastern 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0
Northwestern 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)21 – Year Beginning July 1st
Period Population,
Beginning of Period
Total Change Births Deaths Natural Increase
Five-Year: 2006–11 12,662 602 697 441 256
Five-Year: 2011–16 13,264 713 708 477 231
Annual: 2012–13 13,414 142 141 93 48
Annual: 2013–14 13,556 125 141 95 45
Annual: 2014–15 13,680 109 142 98 43
Annual: 2015–16 13,790 187 144 102 42
Annual: 2016–17 13,976 217 147 105 41
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)22 – Year Beginning July 1st
International Migration
Period Immigration Net Emigration Net NPRs Net
Five-Year: 2006–11 558 89 57 525
Five-Year: 2011–16 519 88 89 521
Annual: 2012–13 106 16 19 108
Annual: 2013–14 102 19 11 94
Annual: 2014–15 90 18 2 74
Annual: 2015–16 120 18 33 136
Annual: 2016–17 98 18 69 150
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE (000s)23 – Year Beginning July 1st
Interprovincial Migration
Period In Out Net
Five-Year: 2006–11 296 355 -59
Five-Year: 2011–16 307 346 -39
Annual: 2012–13 55 69 -14
Annual: 2013–14 57 72 -15
Annual: 2014–15 63 72 -9
Annual: 2015–16 72 63 9
Annual: 2016–17 84 58 26

[1], [3], [5], [7], [19] Statistics Canada’s population estimates, based on the 2011 Census.

[2], [4], [6], [13], [20] Except for Canada, projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2016). Projections for Canada are from Statistics Canada (based on 2011 Census).

[8], [14] Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.

[9], [10], [11], [15], [16], [17] Total Fertility Rates and life expectancy estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates for years after 2006 represent three-year averages (e.g., 2006 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2005-2007).

[12], [18] Households are Census data.

[21], [22], [23] In the “Components of Change” table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.

Note: All population figures are for July 1st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

March 22, 2018

Office of Economic Policy
Labour Economics Branch

Accessible Image Description:

This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the fourth quarter of 2017 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2012-2016). In the fourth quarter of 2017, all components, except immigration and emigration, were higher than the average of fourth quarters of the previous five years.

Return to image

 

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