: Ontario Economic Accounts

Second Quarter of 2019
(April, May, June)
Ontario Ministry of Finance

Table of Contents

ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Economic Accounts

Highlights

Ontario’s Economy Grows in Q2

  • Ontario’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.8% in the second quarter (April, May, June) of 2019, comparable to the national average of 0.9%.
  • Second quarter growth was supported by higher exports and consumer spending.
  • Nominal GDP increased 2.0%, as compensation of employees rose by 1.9% and the net operating surplus of corporations increased by 6.3%.
  • Economic production, measured on an industry basis, increased 0.7%. Service sector output advanced by 0.9%, while output in goods-producing industries edged down 0.1%.

 

Expenditure Details

Real GDP Rises Strongly

Ontario’s real GDP increased by 0.8% in the second quarter of 2019, after edging up 0.1% in the first quarter.

Household consumption spending increased 0.5%, after rising by 0.4% in each of the previous two quarters. Consumer spending on semi-durable goods led the gain, rising 1.4%. Spending was also higher for services (+0.5%), durable goods (+0.1%) and non-durable goods (+0.1%).

Total business investment declined 2.0% in the second quarter. Investment in machinery and equipment declined by 8.6%, after average quarterly gains of 2.9% since the first quarter of 2017. Investment in non-residential structures (+0.2%), residential structures (+0.1%) and intellectual property products (+0.5%) partially offset the decline.

Spending at all three levels of government combined increased by 0.3%, after rising 0.5% in the first quarter.

Exports increased 1.6%, the strongest gain in four quarters, mainly due to higher international exports of motor vehicles and parts and metal and non-metallic mineral products. Both international (+2.2%) and interprovincial (+0.4%) exports increased. Imports declined 0.6%, following a 1.6% increase in the first quarter.

Businesses accumulated $6.5 billion worth of non-farm inventories, following an $8.8 billion increase in the first quarter.

Final domestic demand, which is the sum of consumption, investment and government expenditures, was unchanged in the second quarter, after increasing 0.2% in the first quarter.

Income Details

Solid Increase in Nominal GDP

Ontario’s nominal GDP increased 2.0% in the second quarter of 2019, after expanding 0.8% in the first quarter.

Compensation of employees, which includes both wages and salaries and supplementary labour income, increased 1.9%, following a 0.6% increase in the previous quarter. The increase was supported by strong growth in employment and earnings.

Business sector profits, measured by the net operating surplus of corporations, increased 6.3%, after increasing 1.0% in the previous quarter.

Net mixed income, which is comprised of farm, non-farm and rental income, increased 1.0%, after a gain of 1.2% in the previous quarter.

Household disposable income, which measures all sources of income and excludes personal income taxes paid and other transfers, increased 1.4%, following a 0.5% gain in the previous quarter.

Price Details

Economy-Wide Prices

Economy-wide prices, as measured by the implicit price index for GDP, rose 1.2% in the second quarter of 2019, following a 0.6% increase in the first quarter.

Prices for household consumption expenditures increased 0.8%. Prices for motor vehicles and parts, electricity, gasoline and other fuels increased, while prices for clothing and furniture and appliances declined.    

Business investment prices increased 0.8%, with increases in non-residential construction (+0.5%), machinery and equipment (+0.7%) and residential construction (+0.9%).

Both exports (+0.6%) and imports (+0.5%) prices rose in the second quarter. During this period, the Canadian dollar depreciated 0.6% against the U.S. dollar.

Industry Details

GDP Growth by Industry

Ontario real GDP, measured as value-added by industry, advanced 0.7% in the second quarter of 2019, following a gain of 0.1% in the previous quarter. Growth was led by service-producing industries (+0.9%), while output in goods production (−0.1%) edged down in the quarter.

Manufacturing output decreased 0.4% in the second quarter, mainly reflecting lower output of machinery (−3.4%) and electrical and electronic products (−4.2%). Higher output of chemical and petroleum (+1.8%) and primary and fabricated metal (+1.2%) products partially offset the overall decline. Auto sector output advanced 0.3% as production increased at assembly plants, following temporary shutdowns earlier in the year.

Construction output edged down 0.1%, as lower residential construction (−0.6%) was partially offset by higher output in non-residential structures and engineering (+0.3%).

Primary industry output increased 2.3%, as output rose in mining (+4.4%) as well as in agriculture and forestry (+0.5%).

Utilities edged down 0.1%, as output declined in both electric power (−0.1%) and natural gas, water and other utilities (−0.2%).

Increased output in service-producing industries was supported by gains in real estate, rental and leasing (+0.9%), finance and insurance (+1.2%), retail trade (+1.5%), wholesale trade (+0.8%) and professional and administrative services (+0.5%).

Jurisdictional Comparisons

Ontario Growth in Context

Canadian real GDP increased 0.9% in the second quarter of 2019, after rising 0.1% in each of the two previous quarters. Growth in the quarter was driven by stronger net trade, as exports rose and imports declined, as well as higher residential investment.

Quebec’s real GDP rose 0.7% in the second quarter of 2019, following a 0.5% gain in the first quarter. The quarterly increase was led by business investment.

In the U.S., real GDP advanced 0.5% in the second quarter, after rising 0.8% in the first quarter of 2019. Household consumption and government spending supported growth in the quarter.

Recent Economic Developments

Employment

Labour Market Overview

Ontario’s employment advanced strongly for the second consecutive month in September (+41,100), after increasing by 57,800 in August.

On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s employment advanced by 202,900 jobs (+2.8%) in the first nine months of 2019, compared to the same period in 2018. It is the strongest gain since 2003. Most of these net new jobs were in full-time positions (+148,800) and in the private sector (+126,900).

There were notable employment gains in services-producing industries (+187,000) in the first nine months of 2019, while employment in goods-producing industries increased by 15,800.

In September 2019, the unemployment rate was 5.3%, down from 5.6% in August.


Note: More information on Ontario labour market performance can be found in the Quarterly Ontario
Employment Report at: https://www.ontario.ca/document/ontario-employment-reports

Consumer and Business Activity

Retail and Wholesale Trade and Manufacturing Sales

Ontario’s retail sales advanced 3.2% over the first seven months of 2019, compared to the same period in 2018. Growth was led by higher sales of motor vehicles and parts and general merchandise stores.

Wholesale trade increased 2.7% over the first seven months of 2019, compared to the same period in 2018. Growth was led by higher sales of machinery & equipment and personal & household products.

Manufacturing sales rose 1.3% over the first seven months of 2019, compared to the same period in 2018. Growth was led by higher sales of transportation equipment and machinery.

Housing

Housing Market Overview

Sales of existing homes continue to recover from the sharp decline early in the year when harsh winter weather affected activity. Over the first eight months of 2019, home resales were 7.1% higher than the same period in 2018.

Ontario’s average home resale price has been trending up so far in 2019. On a year-to-date basis, the average home resale price was 4.9% higher over the first eight months of 2019.

Housing starts declined 7.8% in the first nine months of 2019, compared to the same period in 2018. Both single-detached (−18.9%) and multiple-unit (−3.1%) starts declined over the period.

Global Economic Developments

Global Growth Slows in Q2

Many countries experienced slowing real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2019.

Real GDP in the Euro Area rose 0.2% in the second quarter, down from 0.4% growth in the first quarter. The slowdown largely reflects real GDP contracting by 0.1% in Germany as well as no growth in Italy. Real GDP also declined in the United Kingdom by 0.2% in the second quarter.

In Asia, real GDP growth in Japan moderated from a 0.5% rise in the first quarter to 0.3% in the second quarter. China’s economy grew by 1.6% in the second quarter, up from 1.4% in the previous quarter. On a year-over-year basis, China’s real GDP advanced by 6.2% in the second quarter compared to the second quarter of 2018, the slowest pace since 1992.

Growth in the U.S. also decelerated in the second quarter to 0.5%, after rising by 0.8% in the first quarter. Consumer spending grew by 1.1% in the quarter, but was partially offset by lower inventories, investment and net trade. Lower fixed investment resulted from declines in business non-residential construction (−2.9%) and residential investment      (−0.7%), the sixth consecutive quarterly decline. Net trade also subtracted from growth as exports decreased (−1.4%), while imports were unchanged.

U.S. employment increased by 462,700 net new jobs in the third quarter of 2019, slightly higher than the second quarter gain. The unemployment rate has been trending down in 2019 and declined to 3.5% in September.

Long-Term Bond Yields Decline

Due to weakening economic outlooks, long-term interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. have trended down in recent quarters. The Canadian 10-year government bond yield has declined from 2.0% in December 2018 to about 1.4% at the end of the third quarter.

The U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its federal funds rate target to 2.00-2.25% in July, its first reduction in over a decade, and again in September to 1.75-2.00%. The Federal Reserve cited uncertain global developments and muted inflation as reasons behind the rate cut.

In September, the European Central Bank also cut its deposit rate by 10 basis points to -0.50% and restarted its quantitative easing program due to low inflation and economic weakness.

The Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate at 1.75% at its September meeting, unchanged since October 2018. While the Bank noted global economic uncertainty, it sees the current degree of monetary policy stimulus as appropriate. The Canadian dollar has remained close to 75 cents U.S. for most of 2019.

Oil prices rose at the beginning of the second quarter of 2019, reflecting rising geopolitical tensions. However, by the end of June, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price had subsided from over $64 US to below $60 US. There was a temporary spike in mid-September after a supply disruption in Saudi Arabia oil operations, but by late September the WTI price had returned to below $60 US.

Stock market indices have had moderate gains during the second and third quarters of 2019. At the end of the second quarter, the S&P 500 was up 4.1% and the S&P/TSX was up 2.6%. In the third quarter, the S&P 500 rose 1.7%, while the S&P/TSX rose 3.0%.

In Focus

A Tightening Labour Market

Over the past four years, Ontario’s labour market has generally been tightening as most people in the labour force are already working, unemployment is low, output growth has been strong, and employers have more job vacancies to fill.

As of the second quarter of 2019, the number of job vacancies in Ontario increased by over 74,700 (+54.0%) from its low point in the first quarter of 2016. Over the same period, the job vacancy rate1 increased by 1.0 percentage point to 3.3%. A higher job vacancy rate is associated with a tighter labour market when vacancies rise and employers have more difficulty recruiting for open positions, as the pool of available workers becomes smaller.

Ontario’s unemployment-to-job vacancy ratio was around 8.0 during 2011-2013. After reaching a peak of 8.4 in 2013, the ratio declined to its lowest point of 3.2 in 2018. This ratio tells how many unemployed individuals are available for each vacant position and its decline is an indicator of labour market tightness.

The unemployment-to-job vacancy ratio declined for all industries between 2011 and 2018. The ratio for the manufacturing industry was at a high of 8.6 in 2011 and declined to 2.2 in 2018. Similarly, the ratio for the retail trade industry went from around 5.0 between 2011 and 2015 to a low of 2.4 in 2018. Ontario’s health care and social assistance industry has experienced a consistently low unemployment-to-job vacancy ratio, though even here there has been a gradual decline to 0.7 in 2018.


[1] The job vacancy rate is the number of job vacancies expressed as a percentage of labour demand; that is, all occupied and vacant jobs.

Appendix

OEA Release Dates

The Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019 states that the quarterly Ontario Economic Accounts should be released within 45 days of the Statistics Canada release of the National Income and Expenditure Accounts.

In compliance with the legislation, the OEA will be released according to the following schedule:

Reference Period Expected Statistics Canada release of National Income and Expenditure Accounts Corresponding deadline for the release of Ontario Economic Accounts
Third Quarter
(July-September) 2019
November 29, 2019 By January 13, 2020
Fourth Quarter
(October-December) 2019
February 28, 2020 By April 14, 2020

Structure of the Ontario Economy

Per Cent Share of Nominal GDP, 2018
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Source: Statistics Canada
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Accessible version of image

How GDP is Measured

The Ontario Economic Accounts provide measurements of GDP using three different methodologies, by expenditure, income and industry.

The GDP by expenditure approach defines GDP as the aggregate of all expenditures on final consumption, gross capital formation and net trade by consumers, governments and businesses that occur within Ontario’s economy over a given time period. This measurement of GDP can also be defined as the sum of consumer spending, gross investment, government spending and net trade.

The GDP by income approach equates GDP to the total income earned through contributions to production within Ontario’s economy by labour and capital over a given time period. That is, GDP is the sum of all wages and salaries paid to employees, the gross operating surplus of businesses, gross mixed income and indirect taxes less subsidies.

The GDP by industry approach measures GDP by calculating the total output of the goods and services producing industries within Ontario’s economy and subtracting the cost of intermediate inputs used in final production. This approach can also be referred to as the value-added approach as it quantifies the additional value generated by industries through the production of final products within the economy.

For a full list of definitions used in the Ontario Economic Accounts, please see Statistics Canada’s System of Macroeconomic Accounts Glossary at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/13-605-x/gloss/gloss-a-eng.htm.

List of Data Tables

Income and Expenditure Data

Quarterly Data, 2016:Q1–2019:Q2

Table 1: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Income-Based)
Table 2: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure-Based)
Table 3: Ontario Gross Domestic Product at Chained 2012 Prices
Table 4: Sources and Disposition of Ontario Household Income
Table 5: Ontario Trade
Table 6: Ontario Trade (Chained 2012 Prices)
Table 7: Ontario Deflators

Annual Data, 2015-2018

Table 8: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Income-Based)
Table 9: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure-Based)
Table 10: Ontario Gross Domestic Product at Chained 2012 Prices
Table 11: Sources and Disposition of Ontario Household Income
Table 12: Ontario Trade
Table 13: Ontario Trade (Chained 2012 Prices)
Table 14: Ontario Deflators

Ontario Production by Industry at 2012 Prices

Table 15: Quarterly Data, 2016:Q1-2019:Q2
Table 16: Annual Data, 2015-2018

Historical tables, both annual and quarterly available from 1981.
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Graphic Descriptions

Highlights: Ontario GDP, Second Quarter 2019

The chart indicates the per cent change in real and nominal GDP in the second quarter of 2019. Real GDP increased 0.8% and nominal GDP increased 2.0% in the quarter.

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Expenditure Details: Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly per cent real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2019. Ontario has experienced real GDP growth over the entire period. Real GDP rose 0.8% in the second quarter of 2019, following a 0.1% increase in the first quarter. The first quarter of 2017 recorded the strongest gain over the period, at 1.2%.

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Expenditure Details: Real GDP Change by Expenditure Component

The horizontal bar chart depicts the per cent change in Ontario’s real GDP and its components for the second quarter of 2019. Real GDP rose 0.8% in the quarter, with increases in household consumption (+0.5%), government (+0.3%) and exports (+1.6%). Business investment (−2.0%) and imports (−0.6%) declined.

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Expenditure Details: Real Export and Import Growth

The bar chart shows the quarterly per cent change in real exports and imports from the first quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2019. Exports increased by 1.6% in the second quarter of 2019 while imports declined by 0.6%.

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Income Details: Nominal GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly per cent nominal GDP growth from the first quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2019. Ontario has experienced nominal GDP growth over the entire period, except for the third quarter of 2017, when growth was flat. Nominal GDP rose 2.0% in the second quarter of 2019, the strongest gain over the period.

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Income Details: Nominal GDP Change by Income Component

The horizontal bar chart depicts the per cent change in nominal GDP and its components for the second quarter of 2019. Nominal GDP rose 2.0% in the second quarter, with increases in net mixed income (+1.0%), compensation of employees (+1.9%) and net operating surplus (+6.3%).

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Income Details: Compensation of Employees Growth

The bar chart shows Ontario’s quarterly growth of employee compensation in per cent from the first quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2019. Compensation of employees has risen in every quarter over the period, except for the first quarter of 2016 when it declined by 0.6%. Compensation of employees rose 1.9% in the second quarter of 2019, following a 0.6% increase in the first quarter. The fourth quarter of 2017 recorded the strongest gain over the period, at 2.3%.

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Price Details: Economy-Wide Price Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly growth of economy-wide prices in per cent from the first quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2019. Economy-wide prices increased 1.2% in the second quarter of 2019, the strongest increase over the period. The largest decline was posted in the third quarter of 2017 (−0.4%).

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Price Details: Price Change by Expenditure Component

The horizontal bar chart shows the per cent change in prices by expenditure component for the second quarter of 2019. Prices increased for household consumption (+0.8%), business investment (+0.8%), government (+0.5%), exports (+0.6%) and imports (+0.5%).

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Price Details: Export and Import Price Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly growth of export and import prices in per cent from the first quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2019. In the second quarter of 2019, export prices rose 0.6% while import prices rose 0.5%. Since 2016, the largest gain in import prices (+2.3%) was in the second quarter of 2017 and 2018. The largest gain in export prices (+1.7%) was in the second quarter of 2018. The largest fall in import (−3.2%) and export (−3.0%) prices was in the third quarter of 2017.

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Industry Details: Real GDP Growth by Industry

The bar chart depicts Ontario’s quarterly growth of real GDP by industry in per cent from the first quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2019. Ontario real GDP advanced 0.7% in the second quarter of 2019, following a 0.1% gain in the first quarter. Real GDP by industry has grown over the entire period, except the second quarter of 2016, when growth was flat. The strongest gain was recorded in the first quarter of 2017 (+1.3%).

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Industry Details: Real GDP Change by Industry

The horizontal bar chart illustrates the per cent change in real GDP by industry for the second quarter of 2019. The output of all industries grew 0.7% in the quarter. Output decreased in goods-producing industries (−0.1%), with industry changes as follows: manufacturing (−0.4%); utilities (−0.1%); construction (−0.1%); and, primary industries (+2.3%). Output in the service industries rose 0.9%, including industry changes as follows: retail trade (+1.5%); finance and insurance (+1.2%); other service industries (1.0%); real estate, rental and leasing (+0.9%); wholesale trade (+0.8%); health, education and public administration (+0.7%); and, professional and administrative services (+0.5%).

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Industry Details: Real GDP Change by Manufacturing Industry

The horizontal bar chart shows the per cent change in real GDP by manufacturing industry for the second quarter of 2019. In total, output by manufacturing industries declined 0.4% in the quarter. The change in output of each manufacturing industry is as follows: paper and printing (+2.1%); chemical and petroleum (+1.8%); primary and fabricated metal (+1.2%); transportation equipment (+0.1%); food, beverage and tobacco (−0.4%); other manufacturing (−0.4%); wood and furniture (−0.5%); plastic and rubber (−2.2%); machinery (−3.4%); electrical and electronic (−4.2%); and, textile, clothing and leather (−6.9%).

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Juristictional Comparisons: Canadian Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Canada’s quarterly per cent real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2019. Canadian real GDP grew 0.9% in the second quarter of 2019, following increases of 0.1% in the previous two quarters. The largest gain over the period was 1.1% in the third quarter of 2016 and the second quarter of 2017, and the largest decline was 0.5% in the first quarter of 2015 and the second quarter of 2016.

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Jurisdictional Comparisons: Quebec Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Quebec’s quarterly per cent real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2019. Quebec has experienced real GDP growth in the entire period with the exception of the second and fourth quarter of 2015 which were unchanged. Quebec real GDP grew 0.7% in the second quarter of 2019, following a 0.5% increase in the previous quarter. The largest gain over the period was 1.1% in the second quarter of 2017.

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Jurisdictional Comparisons: U.S. Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates the U.S.’s quarterly per cent real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2019. U.S. real GDP grew 0.5% in the second quarter, following a 0.8% gain in the first quarter. The U.S. has experienced real GDP growth over the entire period, with the exception of the fourth quarter of 2015, when it was unchanged. The largest gain over the period was in the fourth quarter of 2017 and the second quarter of 2018 (both at 1.0%).

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Employment: Ontario’s Labour Force

The chart indicates the change in Ontario’s employment and unemployment rate. Ontario’s employment rose by 202,900 on a year-to-date basis so far in 2019. The unemployment rate was 5.3% in September 2019.

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Employment: Year-to-Date Employment Gains

The horizontal bar chart illustrates the employment gains on a year-to-date basis for 2019. Total employment rose by 202,900 over the first nine months of 2019, compared to the same period a year ago. Private sector employment increased by 126,900, while self-employment increased by 80,400. Public sector employment declined by 4,500. Over the period, full-time employment rose by 148,800 and part-time employment rose by 54,100. On an industry basis, goods producing industries saw an increase of 15,800, while service-producing industries increased by 187,000.

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Employment: Ontario’s Employment and Unemployment Rate

The chart shows Ontario’s monthly employment level as a shaded area and unemployment rate as a line from January 2017 to September 2019. The unemployment rate trended down from 6.4% in January 2017 to a low of 5.2% in May 2019. The unemployment rate was 5.3% in September 2019. Employment has increased steadily over the period from about 7.1 million in January 2017 to about 7.5 million in September 2019.

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Consumer and Business Activity: Retail Sales

The line chart shows Ontario’s retail sales in billions of dollars from January 2015 to July 2019. Ontario’s retail sales have trended upwards from $14.6 billion in January 2015 to $19.6 billion in July 2019.  Sales declined for three consecutive months from November 2018 to January 2019 but have since recovered. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s retail sales rose 3.2% over the first seven months of 2019.

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Consumer and Business Activity: Wholesale Trade

The line chart shows Ontario’s wholesale trade in billions of dollars from January 2015 to July 2019. Ontario’s wholesale trade has trended upwards from $25.9 billion in January 2015 to $33.9 billion in July 2019. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s wholesale trade rose 2.7% over the first seven months of 2019.

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Consumer and Business Activity: Manufacturing Sales

The line chart shows Ontario’s manufacturing sales in billions of dollars from January 2015 to July 2019. Ontario’s manufacturing sales have trended upwards from $23.2 billion in January 2015 to $26.5 billion in July 2019. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s manufacturing sales rose 1.3% over the first seven months of 2019.

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Housing: Home Resales

The line chart shows Ontario’s home resales in units from January 2015 to August 2019. Ontario’s home resales grew from about 17,500 units in January 2015 to over 21,500 in May 2017. Home resales declined to about 15,100 in July 2017, and recovered to about 19,400 in December 2017, before declining again to about 14,500 in February 2018. Since, home resales have increased to about 18,200 in August 2019.

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Housing: Home Resale Prices

The line chart shows Ontario’s average home resale prices in dollars from January 2015 to August 2019. Ontario’s home resale price increased from $435,000 in January 2015 to a peak of $650,000 in March 2017. Average resales prices declined to $532,000 in July 2017. Subsequently, prices have trended upwards and averaged at $612,000 in August 2019.

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Housing: Housing Starts

The line chart shows Ontario’s housing starts in units (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) from January 2015 to September 2019. Ontario’s housing starts were volatile over the period, with a peak of 106,000 units in February 2018 and a trough of 42,000 in February 2015. In September 2019, there were 86,000 starts.

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Global Economic Developments: Real GDP Growth

This bar chart shows quarterly percentage changes in real GDP for the U.S., the Euro area, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan and China for the first and second quarter of 2019. In the first and second quarter, U.S. growth was 0.8% and 0.5%; Euro area growth was 0.4% and 0.2%; United Kingdom growth was 0.5% and -0.2%; Germany growth was 0.4% and -0.1%; Japan growth was 0.5% and 0.3%; and, China’s growth was 1.4% and 1.6%.

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Global Economic Developments: U.S. Net Trade Contribution to Real GDP Growth

The bar chart shows net trade’s quarterly percentage point contribution to U.S. real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2019. The contribution was -0.7 percentage points in the second quarter of 2019, following a +0.7 percentage point contribution in the previous quarter. The largest negative contribution over the period was -2.1 percentage points in the third quarter of 2018 and the largest positive contribution was +0.7 percentage points in the second quarter of 2018 and first quarter of 2019. 

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Global Economic Developments: U.S. Labour Market

This chart shows the U.S. unemployment rate in per cent as a line and employment growth in thousands of workers as bars, from January 2015 to September 2019. Over this period, employment has increased every month, and the unemployment rate has shown a downward trend. In September 2019, the U.S. unemployment rate was 3.5% and employment increased by 136,000 jobs.

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Global Economic Developments: Government of Canada 10-Year Bond Rates

This line chart shows rates for Government of Canada 10-year bonds from January 2016 to September 2019. The rate rose relatively steadily from about 1.3% at the beginning of 2016 to 2.6% in October 2018. Since then the rate has been declining, and as of late September, was around 1.4%.

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Global Economic Developments: Oil Prices and the Canadian Dollar

The line chart shows the daily oil prices ($US per barrel) and Canadian dollar exchange rate (cents U.S.) between January 2015 and September 2019. Both series declined from early 2015 through early 2016. Subsequently, the Canadian dollar rose, peaking at about 82 cents in September 2017 and has since declined to around 75 cents U.S. in September 2019. WTI oil prices rose steadily since 2016 and stood at about $75 US per barrel in early October 2018, before declining sharply to around $45 US per barrel at the end of 2018. Over the late-December to end of April period, oil prices increased from around $45 US per barrel to around $65 US per barrel. Oil prices were around $58 US per barrel at the end of September.

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Global Economic Developments: Stock Market Indices

The line chart shows the daily value of the S&P 500, Nikkei, S&P TSX and Euro Stoxx 50 stock indexes from January 2015 to September 2019. Between late December 2018 and September 2019, all indices have increased.

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In Focus: Job Vacancies and Job Vacancy Rate

This line chart shows Ontario’s job vacancies and job vacancy rate from the second quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2019. The number of job vacancies declined from about 178,000 in the second quarter of 2015 to 138,000 in the first quarter of 2016. Since, the number of job vacancies has generally trended upwards, and were 213,000 in the second quarter of 2019. The job vacancy rate declined from 3.0% in the second quarter of 2015 to 2.3% in the first quarter of 2016. Since the rate has generally trended upwards to 3.3% in the second quarter of 2019.

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In Focus: Unemployment-to-Job Vacancy Ratio

This line chart shows Ontario’s unemployment-to-job vacancy ratio from 2011 to 2018. In 2011, the ratio was 7.7. This increased to a peak of 8.4 in 2013 before trending down to 3.2 in 2018.

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In Focus: Unemployment-to-Job Vancancy Ratio, Select Industries

The line chart shows the unemployment-to-job vacancy ratio for manufacturing, administrative and support services, retail trade and health and social assistance from 2011 to 2018. The ratio for manufacturing declined from 8.6 in 2011 to 2.2 in 2018. The ratio for retail trade trended down from 5.3 in 2011 to 2.4 in 2018. The ratio for administrative and support services climbed from 4.0 in 2011 to a peak of 7.6 in 2014, before trending down to 1.5 in 2018. The ratio for health care and social assistance trended down from 1.4 to 0.7.

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Appendix: Per Cent Share of Nominal GDP, 2018

This pie chart shows the percent share of nominal GDP by industry for 2018. Goods-producing industries accounted for 22.7% of Ontario’s nominal GDP with industry shares as follows: manufacturing (12.2%), construction (6.7%), utilities (2.0%) and primary industries (1.9%). Services-producing industries accounted for 77.3% of Ontario’s nominal GDP with industry shares as follows: health and education (12.9%), real estate, rental and leasing (12.7%), wholesale and retail trade (11.4%), finance and insurance (9.6%), public administration (7.1%) transportation and warehousing (4.4%), information and culture (3.5%) and other services (15.8%).

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Appendix: GDP measurement methods

  • Expenditure Approach
    • Sum of expenditures of all sectors of the economy
    • Consumer Spending + Investment + Government Spending + Exports – Imports
  • Income Approach
    • Sum of all incomes
    • Wage and Salaries + Profits + Mixed Incomes + Indirect taxes – Subsidies
  • Production Approach (GDP by Industry)
    • Sum of value added in all industry sectors
    • Output of Goods Producing Industries + Output of Services Producing Industries – Intermediate Inputs

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