: Ontario Economic Accounts

Fourth Quarter of 2018
(October, November, December)
Ontario Ministry of Finance

Table of Contents

ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Highlights

Ontario’s Economy Grows in Q4

  • Ontario’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.2% in the fourth quarter (October, November, December) of 2018, outpacing the national average (+0.1%).
  • Continued gains in consumer spending supported growth in the quarter.
  • Nominal GDP increased 0.2%, as compensation of employees rose by 1.2%, while the net operating surplus of corporations declined 9.3%.
  • Economic production, measured on an industry basis, increased 0.2%. Service sector output advanced by 0.6%, while output in goods-producing industries declined 0.9%.

2018 Annual Highlights

  • Ontario’s real GDP advanced by 2.2% in 2018, outpacing Canadian growth of 1.8%.
  • Growth in 2018 was supported by gains in consumer spending, net trade and business investment in machinery and equipment.
  • Nominal GDP rose by 3.4% in 2018. Compensation of employees rose 5.2%, while the net operating surplus of corporations declined 3.7% in 2018.
  • Economic production, measured on an industry basis, increased 2.3% in 2018, with gains in both the goods (+2.8%) and service (+2.1%) producing industries.

Early 2019Q1 Indicators

  • Ontario’s employment increased by 79,400 during the January to March quarter of 2019, the largest quarterly gain since the third quarter of 1997.

Expenditure Details

Real GDP Continues to Rise

Ontario’s real GDP increased by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018, following a gain of 0.6% in the third quarter.

Household consumption spending increased 0.6%, after rising 0.8% in the third quarter. Consumer spending on non-durables rose 1.5%, with increased spending on food and beverages and pharmaceutical products. Spending on services (+0.5%) and semi-durable goods (+0.1%) also rose, while durable goods spending declined by 0.5%, reflecting lower expenditure on motor vehicles and parts.

Total business investment spending declined 2.4%. Investment in residential construction (−4.7%) and non-residential structures (−4.0%) declined. This was partially offset by higher investment in machinery and equipment (+1.5%) and intellectual property products (+2.6%).

Spending at all three levels of government combined increased by 0.1%, following a 0.6% rise in the third quarter.

Exports declined 0.3%, following four consecutive quarterly gains. Both interprovincial (−0.6%) and international (−0.1%) exports declined. Imports edged up 0.1%, following a 1.1% decline in the third quarter.

Businesses accumulated $8.1 billion worth of inventories, following a $1.9 billion increase in the third quarter.

Final domestic demand, which is the sum of consumption, investment and government expenditures, was unchanged in the fourth quarter, following gains of 0.4% in the previous two quarters.

Income Details

Nominal GDP Rises

Ontario’s nominal GDP increased 0.2%, after advancing 1.2% in the third quarter.

Compensation of employees, which includes both wages and salaries and supplementary labour income, increased 1.2%, after rising 0.9% in the previous quarter.

Business sector profits, measured by the net operating surplus of corporations, decreased 9.3%, following two consecutive quarterly gains. Weaker financial sector profits contributed to the fourth quarter decline.

Net mixed income, which is comprised of farm, non-farm and rental income, increased 1.3%, after a gain of 1.1% in the third quarter.

Household disposable income increased 0.9%, following a 0.6% gain in the previous quarter.

Price Details

Economy-Wide Prices

Economy-wide prices, as measured by the implicit price index for GDP, edged up 0.1% in the fourth quarter, following a 0.6% gain in the third quarter.

Prices for household consumption expenditures increased 0.2%, following a 0.5% gain in the previous quarter. Prices for motor vehicles and parts, food and beverages and natural gas increased, while prices for furniture, electricity and gasoline decreased.

Business investment prices rose 0.9%, with increases in residential construction (+1.3%), machinery and equipment (+0.7%) and non-residential construction (+0.5%).

Prices were lower for both exports (−0.4%) and imports (−0.8%).

Industry Details

GDP Growth by Industry

Based on output by industry, Ontario real GDP advanced 0.2% in the fourth quarter, following a gain of 0.5% in the previous quarter. Growth was led by service-producing industries (+0.6%), while output in goods production (−0.9%) declined in the quarter.

Within the goods sector, manufacturing output decreased 0.3%, led lower by paper products and printing (−5.5%), chemical and petroleum products (−1.5%) and food, beverage and tobacco products (−1.3%). Higher output in primary and fabricated metal products (+3.7%) and electronics (+1.0%) partially offset the decline.

Construction output decreased 3.1% in the fourth quarter, as both residential (−5.0%) and non-residential and engineering (−1.7%) declined.

Primary industry output increased 1.8%, as output rose in both mining (+3.1%) and agriculture and forestry (+0.7%).

Utilities output edged up 0.1%, as lower electric power output (−0.7%) was offset by higher output in natural gas, water and other utilities (+3.0%).

Increased output in service-producing industries was supported by gains in professional and administrative services (+1.1%), finance and insurance (+1.0%), real estate, rental and leasing (+0.4%), retail trade (+0.2%) and wholesale trade (+0.1%).

Jurisdictional Comparisons

Ontario Growth in Context

On an annual basis, Ontario’s real GDP growth (+2.2%) outpaced both Canada and Quebec. Canadian real GDP increased 1.8% in 2018, following a 3.0% increase in 2017. Quebec’s real GDP increased 2.1% in 2018, following a 2.8% increase in 2017.

Canadian real GDP edged up 0.1% in the fourth quarter, following a 0.5% gain in the third quarter, supported by business inventory accumulation and household consumption. Quebec’s real GDP rose 0.4% in the fourth quarter, following a 0.8% increase in the third quarter, led by higher exports.

In the U.S., real GDP advanced 2.9% in 2018, following a 2.2% rise in 2017. Real GDP advanced 0.5% in the fourth quarter, after increasing 0.8% in the third quarter. Household consumption, non-residential investment and exports supported growth in the quarter.

Employment

Labour Market Overview

Ontario’s employment increased by 79,400 in the first quarter of 2019, the largest quarterly gain since the third quarter of 1997. Most of the employment increase was in full-time positions (+70,300) and in the private sector (+72,300).

There were notable employment gains in services-producing industries (+78,300) in the first quarter of 2019, while employment in goods-producing industries rose by 1,100.

Ontario’s unemployment rate was 5.9% in March.


Note: More information on Ontario labour market performance can be found in the Quarterly Ontario Employment Report at: https://www.ontario.ca/page/ontario-employment-report-october-december-2018

Consumer and Business Activity

Retail and Wholesale Trade and Manufacturing Sales

Retail sales advanced 3.8% in 2018, following a 7.7% increase in 2017, led by higher sales of motor vehicles and parts and gasoline. Sales in January decreased 1.0% (m/m), driven by lower sales at gasoline stations, partly reflecting lower prices.

Wholesale trade increased 2.6% in 2018, after rising 8.2% in 2017. Wholesale trade in January increased 0.8% (m/m) on higher sales of miscellaneous products and machinery and equipment.

Manufacturing sales rose 3.4% in 2018, after a 1.9% increase in 2017. Sales in January advanced 1.7% (m/m), led by gains in transportation equipment.

Housing

Housing Market Overview

Following a period of stabilization since mid-2018, sales of existing homes declined by 14.4% in February. Harsh winter weather affected sales. Over the first two months of 2019, home resales were 2.2% higher than the same period in 2018.

Ontario average home resale prices have remained relatively steady since July 2018. On a year-to-date basis, the average Ontario home resale price was 1.7% higher over the first two months of 2019, compared to a year earlier.

On a year-to-date basis, housing starts declined 33.7% in the first two months of 2019, compared to the same period in 2018. Both single-detached (−38.6%) and multiple-unit (−32.4%) starts declined over the period.

Global Economic Developments

Global Growth Slows in Late 2018

Global economic performance continued to slow in the fourth quarter of 2018. Real GDP in the euro zone rose by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, or 1.1% on a year-over-year basis. This represented the slowest annual pace of growth since the fourth quarter of 2013. In China, real GDP growth also moderated on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter of 2018, to 6.4%. This marked the weakest pace of growth since early 2009.

Real GDP growth in the United Kingdom was 0.2% in the fourth quarter, following a 0.6% increase in the previous quarter. In Japan, real GDP increased 0.5%, following a 0.6% decrease in the third quarter.

U.S. real GDP growth was 0.5% in the fourth quarter, moderating from gains of 0.8% in the third quarter and 1.0% in the second quarter.

U.S. consumer spending rose 0.6% in the fourth quarter, weaker than the 0.9% pace recorded in each of the previous two quarters. Business investment rose 1.3%, boosted by a 2.6% rise in intellectual property products. Residential investment declined 1.2%, the fourth consecutive quarterly decrease. Net trade reduced overall growth as imports rose 0.5%, stronger than the 0.4% increase in exports.

U.S. employment increased by 616,000 net new jobs in the first quarter of 2019, compared to 649,300 in the fourth quarter of 2018. The unemployment rate was 3.8% in March.

Bank of Canada Holds Policy Rate

The Bank of Canada left its policy interest rate unchanged in March 2019 at 1.75%, keeping the rate steady since October, following a period of increases over the July 2017 to October 2018 period. The U.S. Federal Reserve also kept its target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at between 2.25% to 2.50% in recent meetings after a period of steady increases. This more neutral stance in monetary policy in part reflects concerns about global growth which has also weighed on long-term bond yields in Canada and the United States since October, flattening the yield curve.

Oil prices declined from $76 US per barrel (West Texas Intermediate) in early October to below $45 US per barrel by late December. Prices have since increased to around $60 US per barrel in late March, supported by supply restrictions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The Canadian dollar has held relatively steady around 75 cents U.S. over the first three months of 2019.

Stock markets rebounded over the first three months of 2019, after recording notable declines in the final quarter of 2018. After reaching a recent low in late December, the S&P 500 has increased by 19%, while the S&P/TSX Composite rose 17% as of late March. Overseas markets have also rebounded. Despite the sharp increase over the first quarter of 2019, in general, stock market indices have only returned near levels recorded before the steep declines in the final quarter of 2018.

Appendix

OEA Release Dates

The proposed Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019 states that the quarterly Ontario Economic Accounts would be released within 45 days of the Statistics Canada release of the National Income and Expenditure Accounts.

In compliance with the proposed legislation, the OEA will be released according to the following schedule:

Reference Period Expected Statistics Canada release of National Income and Expenditure Accounts Corresponding deadline for the release of Ontario Economic Accounts
First Quarter
(January-March) 2019
May 31, 2019 By July 15, 2019
Second Quarter
(April-June) 2019
August 30, 2019 By October 15, 2019
Third Quarter
(July-September) 2019
November 29, 2019 By January 13, 2020
Fourth Quarter
(October-December) 2019
February 28, 2020 By April 14, 2020

Structure of the Ontario Economy

How GDP is Measured

The Ontario Economic Accounts provide measurements of GDP using three different methodologies, by expenditure, income and industry.

The GDP by expenditure approach defines GDP as the aggregate of all expenditures on final consumption, gross capital formation and net trade by consumers, governments and businesses that occur within Ontario’s economy over a given time period. This measurement of GDP can also be defined as the sum of consumer spending, gross investment, government spending and net trade.

The GDP by income approach equates GDP to the total income earned through contributions to production within Ontario’s economy by labour and capital over a given time period. That is, GDP is the sum of all wages and salaries paid to employees, the gross operating surplus of businesses, gross mixed income and indirect taxes less subsidies.

The GDP by industry approach measures GDP by calculating the total output of the goods and services producing industries within Ontario’s economy and subtracting the cost of intermediate inputs used in final production. This approach can also be referred to as the value-added approach as it quantifies the additional value generated by industries through the production of final products within the economy.

For a full list of definitions used in the Ontario Economic Accounts, please see Statistics Canada’s System of Macroeconomic Accounts Glossary at
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/13-605-x/gloss/gloss-a-eng.htm

List of Data Tables

Income and Expenditure Data

Quarterly Data, 2015:Q1–2018:Q4

Table 1: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Income-Based)
Table 2: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure-Based)
Table 3: Ontario Gross Domestic Product at Chained 2012 Prices
Table 4: Sources and Disposition of Ontario Household Income
Table 5: Ontario Trade
Table 6: Ontario Trade (Chained 2012 Prices)
Table 7: Ontario Deflators

Annual Data, 2015-2018

Table 8: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Income-Based)
Table 9: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure-Based)
Table 10: Ontario Gross Domestic Product at Chained 2012 Prices
Table 11: Sources and Disposition of Ontario Household Income
Table 12: Ontario Trade
Table 13: Ontario Trade (Chained 2012 Prices)
Table 14: Ontario Deflators

Ontario Production by Industry at 2012 Prices

Table 15: Quarterly Data, 2015:Q1-2018:Q4
Table 16: Annual Data, 2015-2018

Historical tables, both annual and quarterly available from 1981.
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Graphic Descriptions

Highlights: Ontario GDP, Fourth Quarter 2018

The chart indicates the per cent change in real and nominal GDP in the fourth quarter of 2018. Real GDP increased 0.2% and nominal GDP increased 0.2% in the quarter.

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Highlights: Ontario GDP, 2018

The chart indicates the per cent change in real and nominal GDP in 2018. Real GDP increased 2.2% and nominal GDP increased 3.4% in the year.

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Expenditure Details: Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly per cent real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2018. Ontario has experienced real GDP growth over the entire period. Real GDP rose 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018, following a 0.6% increase in the third quarter of 2018. The first quarter of 2017 recorded the strongest gain over the period, at 1.2%.

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Expenditure Details: Real GDP Change by Expenditure Component

The horizontal bar chart depicts the per cent change in Ontario’s real GDP and its components for the fourth quarter of 2018. Real GDP rose 0.2% in the quarter, with increases in household consumption (+0.6%), government (+0.1%) and imports (+0.1%). Investment (-2.4%) and exports (-0.3%) declined.

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Expenditure Details: Real Export and Import Growth

The bar chart shows the quarterly per cent change in real exports and imports from the first quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2018. Imports increased 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2018, while exports declined 0.3%.

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Income Details: Nominal GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly per cent nominal GDP growth from the first quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2018. Ontario has experienced nominal GDP growth over the entire period. Nominal GDP rose 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018, following a 1.2% increase in the third quarter of 2018. The third quarter of 2014 recorded the strongest gain over the period, at 1.9%.

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Income Details: Nominal GDP Change by Income Component

The horizontal bar chart depicts the per cent change in nominal GDP and its components for the fourth quarter of 2018. Nominal GDP rose 0.2% in the fourth quarter, with increases in compensation of employees (+1.2%), and net mixed income (+1.3%). Net operating surplus declined (-9.3%).

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Income Details: Compensation of Employees Growth

The bar chart shows Ontario’s quarterly growth of employee compensation in per cent from the first quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2018. Compensation of employees rose 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018, following a 0.9% increase in the third quarter of 2018. The fourth quarter of 2017 recorded the strongest gain over the period, at 2.3%.

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Price Details: Economy-Wide Price Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly growth of economy-wide prices in per cent from the first quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2018. Economy-wide prices increased 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2018, following a 0.6% increase in the third quarter. Since the first quarter of 2014, the strongest growth in prices was recorded in the first quarter of 2014 (+1.1%), while the largest decline was posted in the third quarter of 2017 (-0.4%).

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Price Details: Price Change by Expenditure Component

The horizontal bar chart shows the per cent change in prices by expenditure component for the fourth quarter of 2018. Prices increased for household consumption (+0.2%), business investment (+0.9%) and government (+0.7%). Priced decreased for exports (-0.4%) and imports (-0.8%).

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Price Details: Export and Import Price Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly growth of export and import prices in per cent from the first quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2018. In the fourth quarter of 2018, prices were lower for both imports (-0.8%) and exports (-0.4%). Since 2015, the largest gain in import prices (+2.7%) and export prices (+2.8%) was in the third quarter of 2015. The largest fall in import (-3.2%) and export (-3.0%) prices was in the third quarter of 2017.

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Industry Details: Real GDP Growth by Industry

The bar chart depicts Ontario’s quarterly growth of real GDP by industry in per cent from the first quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2018. Ontario real GDP advanced 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018, following a 0.5% gain in the third quarter. Real GDP by industry has grown over the entire period, with the strongest gain of 1.3% recorded in the first quarter of 2017.

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Industry Details: Real GDP Change by Industry

The horizontal bar chart illustrates the per cent change in real GDP by industry category for the fourth quarter of 2018. The output of all industries grew 0.2% in the quarter. Output decreased (-0.9%) in goods-producing industries, with industry changes as follows: primary industries (+1.8%); utilities (+0.1%); manufacturing (-0.3%); and, construction (-3.1%). Output in the service industries rose 0.6%, including industry changes as follows: professional and administrative services (+1.1%); finance and insurance (+1.0%); other service industries (+0.8%); real estate, rental and leasing (+0.4%); health, education and public administration (+0.4%); retail trade (+0.2%); and, wholesale trade (+0.1%).

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Industry Details: Real GDP Change by Manufacturing Industry

The horizontal bar chart shows the per cent change in real GDP by manufacturing industry for the fourth quarter of 2018. In total, output by manufacturing industries decreased 0.3% in the quarter. The change in output of each manufacturing industry is as follows: textile, clothing and leather (+8.5%);  primary and fabricated metal (+3.7%); other manufacturing (+1.0%); electrical and electronic (+1.0%); machinery (+0.1%); transportation equipment (-0.5%); wood and furniture (-0.7%); food, beverage and tobacco (-1.3%); chemical and petroleum (-1.5%); plastic and rubber (-2.3%); and, paper and printing (-5.5%).

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Juristictional Comparisons: Ontario and Canada Annual Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates the annual per cent real GDP growth of Ontario and Canada from 2010 to 2018. In 2018, real GDP grew 2.2% in Ontario and 1.8% in Canada, following increases of 2.8% and 3.0% in 2017 respectively. Both Ontario and Canada experienced real GDP growth over the entire period. The largest gain over the period in Ontario was in 2010 (+2.9%) and the largest gains in Canada were in 2010 and 2011 (+3.1%).

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Jurisdictional Comparisons: Canadian Quarterly Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Canada’s quarterly per cent real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2018. Canadian real GDP grew 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2018, following a 0.5% gain in the third quarter. The largest gain over the period was 1.1% in the third quarter of 2016 and the second quarter of 2017, and the largest decline was 0.5% in the first quarter of 2015 and the second quarter of 2016.

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Jurisdictional Comparisons: Quebec Quarterly Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Quebec’s quarterly per cent real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2018. Quebec has experienced real GDP growth in the entire period with the exception of the second and third quarter of 2015 which were unchanged. Quebec real GDP grew 0.4% in the fourth quarter, following a 0.8% increase in the third quarter. The largest gain over the period was 1.1% in the second quarter of 2017.

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Employment: Ontario’s Labour Force

The chart indicates the change in Ontario’s employment and unemployment rate in the first quarter of 2019. Ontario’s employment rose by 79,400 net new jobs in the quarter. The unemployment rate was 5.9% in March 2019.

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Employment: Employment Gains in 2019 Q1

The horizontal bar chart illustrates the employment gains in thousands for the first quarter of 2019. Total employment rose by 79,400 in the quarter. Private sector employment increased by 72,300 while public sector increased by 18,300. Self-employment declined by 11,200. In the quarter, full-time employment rose by 70,300 and part-time employment rose by 9,000. On an industry basis, goods producing industries saw an increase of 1,100, while service-producing industries increased by 78,300.

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Employment: Ontario’s Employment and Unemployment Rate

The chart shows Ontario’s monthly employment level in thousands as a shaded area and unemployment rate as a line from January 2017 to March 2019. Ontario’s unemployment rate was around 6.4% in the first half of 2017, but declined to 5.5% in August 2017. Since, the unemployment rate has been relatively steady, reaching lows of 5.4% in July and December 2018. In March 2019, Ontario’s unemployment rate was 5.9%. Employment has increases steadily over the period from about 7.1 million in January 2017 to about 7.4 million in March 2019.

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Consumer and Business Activity: Retail Sales

The line chart shows Ontario’s retail sales in billions of dollars from January 2015 to January 2019. Ontario’s retail sales have trended upwards since January 2015 but has declined in the last three consecutive months. Ontario’s retail sales rose 3.8% in 2018.

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Consumer and Business Activity: Wholesale Trade

The line chart shows Ontario’s wholesale trade in billions of dollars from January 2015 to January 2019. Ontario’s wholesale trade has trended upwards since January 2015. Ontario’s wholesale trade rose 2.6% in 2018.

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Consumer and Business Activity: Manufacturing Sales

The line chart shows Ontario’s manufacturing sales in billions of dollars from January 2015 to January 2019. Ontario’s manufacturing sales have trended upwards since January 2015. Ontario’s manufacturing sales rose 3.4% in 2018.

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Housing: Home Resales

The line chart shows Ontario’s home resales in units from January 2015 to February 2019. Ontario’s home resales grew from about 17,500 units in January 2015 to over 21,700 in October 2016. After a slight subsequent decline, home resales increased to over 21,500 in March 2017. Home resales declined to about 15,100 in July 2017, and recovered to about 19,500 in December 2017. In February 2019, home resales were about 14,500 units, down from 16,900 units in January.

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Housing: Home Resale Prices

The line chart shows Ontario’s average home resale prices in dollars from January 2015 to February 2019. Ontario’s home resale price increased from $435,000 in January 2015 to a peak of $650,000 in March 2017. Average resales prices declined to $532,000 in July 2017 before increasing to almost $579,000 in December 2017. Subsequently prices trended down to $546,000 in May 2018, and have since risen to $573,000 in February 2019, up 0.1% from January.

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Housing: Housing Starts

The line chart shows Ontario’s housing starts in thousands of units (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) from January 2015 to February 2019. Ontario’s housing starts reached a peak of 106,000 units in February 2018, but declined to 59,000 units in February 2019. The low over the period was just under 42,000 in February 2015. Ontario’s housing starts decreased 0.5% annually in 2018.

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Global Economic Developments: Real GDP Growth

This bar chart shows quarterly percentage changes in real GDP for the U.S., the United Kingdom, the Euro area and Japan for the third and fourth quarters of 2018. In the third and fourth quarters of 2018, U.S. growth was 0.8% and 0.5%; United Kingdom growth was 0.6% and 0.2%; Euro area growth was 0.1% and 0.2%; and, Japan growth was -0.6% and 0.5%.

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Global Economic Developments: U.S. Real Residential Investment

The bar chart shows the quarterly per cent change for real residential investment in the U.S. from the first quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2018. Real residential investment decreased 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018, the fourth consecutive quarterly decline. Real residential investment increased by 2.7% in the first and fourth quarters of 2017, and declined in the second and third quarters.

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Global Economic Developments: U.S. Labour Market

This chart shows the U.S. unemployment rate in per cent as a line and employment growth in thousands of workers as bars, from January 2015 to March 2019. Over this period, employment has increased every month, and the unemployment rate has shown a downward trend. In March 2019, the U.S. unemployment rate was 3.8% and employment increased by 196,000 jobs.

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Global Economic Developments: Government of Canada T-Bill and Bond Rates

This line chart shows the yield curve for Government of Canada bonds as of October 10, 2018 and March 20, 2019. On March 20, 2019, interest rates were as follows: 3-month: 1.7%; 2-Year: 1.6%; 5-Year: 1.6%; 10-Year: 1.7%; and, Long-Term: 2.0%. On October 10, 2018, interest rates were as follows: 3-month: 1.6%; 2-Year: 2.3%; 5-Year: 2.4%; 10-Year: 2.6%; and, Long-Term: 2.6%.

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Global Economic Developments: Oil Prices and the Canadian Dollar

The line chart shows the daily oil prices ($US per barrel) and Canadian dollar exchange rate (cents U.S.) between January 2015 and March 2019. Both series declined from early 2015 through early 2016. Subsequently, the Canadian dollar rose, peaking at about 82 cents in September 2017 and has since declined to below 75 cents U.S. by the middle of March. WTI oil prices rose steadily since 2016 and stood at about 76 U.S. per barrel in early October 2018 before declining to below $46 U.S. per barrel by late-December 2018 and climbing to $59 U.S in the middle of March 2019.

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Global Economic Developments: Stock Market Indices

The line chart shows the daily value of the S&P 500, Nikkei, S&P TSX and Euro Stoxx 50 stock indexes from January 2015 to March 2019. Between late December 2010 and March 2019, the S&P 500, S&P/TSX Composite, Euro Stoxx 50 and Nikkei all increased.

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Appendix: Per Cent Share of Nominal GDP, 2017

This pie chart shows the percent share of nominal GDP by industry for 2017. Goods-producing industries accounted for 22.9% of Ontario’s nominal GDP with industry shares as follows: manufacturing (12.3%), construction (6.9%), utilities (1.9%) and primary industries (1.8%). Services-producing industries accounted for 77.1% of Ontario’s nominal GDP with industry shares as follows: health and education (12.9%), real estate, rental and leasing (12.9%), wholesale and retail trade (11.4%), finance and insurance (9.5%), public administration (7.1%) transportation and warehousing (4.2%), information and culture (3.6%) and other services (15.5%).

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Appendix: GDP measurement methods

  • Expenditure Approach
    • Sum of expenditures of all sectors of the economy
    • Consumer Spending + Investment + Government Spending + Exports − Imports
  • Income Approach
    • Sum of all incomes
    • Wage and Salaries + Profits + Mixed Incomes + Indirect taxes − Subsidies
  • Production Approach (GDP by Industry)
    • Sum of value added in all industry sectors
    • Output of Goods Producing Industries + Output of Services Producing Industries − Intermediate Inputs

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