: Ontario Economic Accounts

First Quarter of 2019
(January, February, March)
Ontario Ministry of Finance

Table of Contents

ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Economic Accounts

Highlights

Ontario’s Economy Grows in Q1

  • Ontario’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.1% in the first quarter (January, February, March) of 2019, matching the national average.
  • First quarter growth was supported by consumer spending and business investment in machinery and equipment.
  • Growth was moderated by net trade and lower residential construction, reflecting a slowdown in home resale activity and new construction.
  • Nominal GDP increased 0.6%, as compensation of employees rose by 0.6% and the net operating surplus of corporations increased by 0.3%.
  • Economic production, measured on an industry basis, increased 0.1%. Service sector output advanced by 0.3%, while output in goods-producing industries declined 0.4%.

 

Expenditure Details

Real GDP Edges Up in Q1

Ontario’s real GDP increased by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2019, following a gain of 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Household consumption spending increased 0.4%, matching the gain in the previous quarter. Consumer spending on durable goods rose 1.3%, with higher spending on motor vehicles and parts. Spending on semi-durable goods (+0.7%) and services (+0.4%) also increased. Non-durable goods spending declined by 0.3%, reflecting lower expenditure on food and beverages, electricity and pharmaceutical products.

Total business investment declined 0.9% in the first quarter due to lower spending on residential construction (−4.2%) and non-residential structures (−0.1%). Investment in machinery and equipment (+4.8%) and intellectual property products (+0.2%) rose for the second consecutive quarter.

Spending at all three levels of government combined increased by 0.7%, in line with growth since the beginning of 2018.

Exports increased 0.4%, following gains of 0.1% in the previous two quarters. Both international (+0.5%) and interprovincial (+0.1%) exports increased. Imports rose 1.2%, following a 0.3% increase in the fourth quarter.

Businesses accumulated $8.3 billion worth of inventories, following a $7.9 billion increase in the fourth quarter.

Final domestic demand, which is the sum of consumption, investment and government expenditures, rose 0.3% in the first quarter, after no change in the fourth quarter.

Income Details

Nominal GDP Rises

Ontario’s nominal GDP increased 0.6% in the first quarter of 2019, after edging up 0.1% in the previous quarter.

Compensation of employees, which includes both wages and salaries and supplementary labour income, increased 0.6%, following a 1.1% increase in the previous quarter.

Business sector profits, measured by the net operating surplus of corporations, increased 0.3%, after declining by 7.9% in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Net mixed income, which is comprised of farm, non-farm and rental income, increased 1.1%, after a gain of 2.2% in the previous quarter.

Household disposable income, which measures all sources of income and excludes personal income taxes paid and other transfers, increased 0.5%, following a 1.3% gain in the previous quarter.

Price Details

Economy-Wide Prices

Economy-wide prices, as measured by the implicit price index for GDP, rose 0.5% in the first quarter of 2019, following a 0.1% decline in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Prices for household consumption expenditures increased 0.3%, following a 0.2% gain in the previous quarter. Prices for motor vehicles and parts, food and beverages and clothing increased, while prices for gasoline, natural gas and furniture declined.

Business investment prices edged up 0.1%, with increases in non-residential construction (+0.7%) and machinery and equipment (+1.1%), while prices for residential construction declined 0.8%.

Import prices rose 0.2%, while exports prices edged down 0.1% in the first quarter of 2019. During this period, the Canadian dollar depreciated a modest 0.6% against the U.S. dollar.

Industry Details

GDP Growth by Industry

Based on output by industry, Ontario real GDP advanced 0.1% in the first quarter of 2019, following a gain of 0.2% in the previous quarter. Growth was led by service-producing industries (+0.3%), while output in goods production (−0.4%) declined in the quarter.

Manufacturing output increased 0.3% in the first quarter, led by higher output of electrical and electronic products (+9.7%) and machinery (+3.7%). Lower chemical and petroleum products (−4.8%) and automotive assembly and parts (−1.2%) production partially offset the overall increase.

Construction output decreased 1.2% in the first quarter, as both residential (−2.2%) and non-residential and engineering (−0.2%) declined.

Primary industry output decreased 2.0%, as output declined in mining (−4.2%). Agriculture and forestry output edged up 0.1% in the quarter.

Utilities output edged down 0.1%, as lower natural gas, water and other utilities output (−0.7%) was partially offset by higher electric power output (+0.1%).

Increased output in service-producing industries was supported by gains in professional and administrative services (+1.0%), real estate, rental and leasing (+0.5%), wholesale trade (+0.7%) and finance and insurance (+0.3%).

Jurisdictional Comparisons

Ontario Growth in Context

Canadian real GDP edged up 0.1% in the first quarter of 2019, matching the increase recorded in Ontario. Growth in the quarter was driven by stronger household consumption and business investment in machinery and equipment.

Quebec’s real GDP rose 0.6% in the first quarter, led by consumer spending. This follows a 0.7% increase in the fourth quarter of 2018. The gain was moderated by weak net trade, as exports declined more than imports.

In the U.S., real GDP advanced 0.8% in the first quarter, after rising 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2018. Household consumption and international trade supported growth in the quarter.

Recent Economic Developments

Employment

Labour Market Overview

Ontario’s employment advanced by 65,100 in the second quarter of 2019, following a gain of 79,400 net new jobs in the first quarter. Most of these net new jobs were in full-time positions (+36,700).

There were notable employment gains in services-producing industries (+48,500) in the second quarter of 2019, while employment in goods-producing industries rose by 16,700.

In June 2019, the unemployment rate edged up to 5.4%, after reaching a 29-year low in May.


Note: More information on Ontario labour market performance can be found in the Quarterly Ontario
Employment Report at: https://www.ontario.ca/page/ontario-employment-report-january-march-2019

Consumer and Business Activity

Retail and Wholesale Trade and Manufacturing Sales

Ontario’s retail sales advanced 3.5% over the first four months of 2019, compared to the same period in 2018. Growth was led by higher sales of motor vehicles and parts and food and beverage. Sales in April increased 0.9% (m/m).

Wholesale trade increased 2.6% over the first four months of 2019, compared to the same period in 2018. Growth was led by higher sales of machinery and equipment products. Sales in April increased 1.1% (m/m).

Manufacturing sales rose 1.2% over the first four months of 2019, compared to the same period in 2018. Sales in April decreased 2.1% (m/m).

Housing

Housing Market Overview

Sales of existing homes have recovered from the sharp decline in February when harsh winter weather affected activity. Over the first five months of 2019, home resales were 6.3% higher than the same period in 2018.

Ontario’s average home resale price increased modestly so far in 2019. On a year-to-date basis, the average home resale price was 3.9% higher over the first five months of 2019.

On a year-to-date basis, housing starts declined 19.5% in the first six months of 2019, compared to the same period in 2018. Both single-detached (−30.3%) and multiple-unit (−15.3%) starts declined over the period.

Global Economic Developments

Global Growth Modest in Q1

Real GDP growth in most major economies improved modestly in the first quarter of 2019. Real GDP in the Euro Area rose 0.4% in the first quarter, up from 0.2% growth in the final quarter of 2018. In the United Kingdom, real GDP increased 0.5%, following a 0.2% increase in the previous quarter. In Japan, real GDP rose 0.6%, after rising 0.5%.

U.S. real GDP rose 0.8% in the first quarter, accelerating from a 0.5% increase in the previous quarter.

U.S. consumer spending rose 0.3% in the first quarter, moderating for a second consecutive quarter. Business investment rose 0.6%, weighed down by a 0.3% decline in equipment spending. Residential investment declined 0.9%, the fifth consecutive quarterly decrease. Net trade made a notably positive contribution to overall growth as exports rose 1.2%, while imports declined 0.6%. Inventory accumulation also boosted growth in the first quarter.

U.S. employment increased by 459,300 net new jobs in the second quarter of 2019, compared to 617,000 in the first quarter. The unemployment rate was 3.7% in June.

In China, real GDP increased 6.4% in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis, matching the pace of growth recorded in the previous quarter.

Long-Term Bond Yields Decline

The Bank of Canada left its policy interest rate unchanged in July 2019 at 1.75%, having kept the rate steady since October 2018. This reflects slowing economic growth in Canada over the final quarter of 2018 and first quarter of 2019, along with increased global trade risks. The Bank of Canada maintains that the current policy interest rate remains appropriate to achieve its 2% inflation target. The U.S. Federal Reserve also kept its target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at between 2.25% to 2.50% in June.

Long-term bond yields have moved lower over the course of 2019 in part due to escalating international trade tensions and concerns about global growth prospects. As of late June, the Canadian 10-year government bond yield was around 1.50%, its lowest level in about two years. As a result, the Canadian yield curve has inverted, with short-term rates higher than long-term rates.

Oil prices increased from around $45 US per barrel (West Texas Intermediate) at the end of December to around $65 US per barrel by the end of April. Oil prices decreased over most of the May-June period settling at the end of June to around $57 US per barrel. The recent rise in oil prices reflects rising geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran.

The Canadian dollar has held relatively steady around 75 cents U.S. over the second quarter of 2019.

As of the end of June, the S&P 500 was up 4.1% compared to the end of March, while the S&P/TSX Composite rose 2.6% over the same period. Both the S&P 500 and the S&P/TSX Composite are roughly at their previous peaks reached in September 2018. In Europe, stock markets have generally shown the same pattern.

In Focus

A Look at Interprovincial Trade

Interprovincial trade, the flow of goods and services with other Canadian provinces and territories, is an important part of Ontario’s economy. In 2018, interprovincial exports represented 17.8% of Ontario’s nominal GDP, while interprovincial imports represented 14.0%.

Ontario’s interprovincial trade has increased over the past four decades. Since 1981, interprovincial exports have risen from $38.8 billion to $152.1 billion in 2018, growing at an average annual rate of 3.8%. Interprovincial imports have increased from $26.1 billion in 1981 to $120.0 billion in 2018, an average annual growth rate of 4.2%.

Ontario has always posted an interprovincial trade surplus, growing from $12.7 billion in 1981 to $32.1 billion in 2018.

Services account for about 70% of Ontario’s exports to other provinces. The largest service exports include finance and insurance (20.0%), wholesale margins (14.8%) and administrative and support services (8.2%). Food and beverages (7.7%) and primary metal products (3.6%) are the major goods exported to other provinces.

Quebec is the largest provincial trade partner for Ontario, accounting for 29.8% of Ontario’s interprovincial exports and 40.5% of interprovincial imports. Alberta accounted for 26.0% of exports and 25.5% of imports, while British Columbia accounted for 18.6% of exports and 12.6% of imports.

Appendix

OEA Release Dates

The Fiscal Sustainability, Transparency and Accountability Act, 2019 states that the quarterly Ontario Economic Accounts should be released within 45 days of the Statistics Canada release of the National Income and Expenditure Accounts.

In compliance with the legislation, the OEA will be released according to the following schedule:

Reference Period Expected Statistics Canada release of National Income and Expenditure Accounts Corresponding deadline for the release of Ontario Economic Accounts
Second Quarter
(April-June) 2019
August 30, 2019 By October 15, 2019
Third Quarter
(July-September) 2019
November 29, 2019 By January 13, 2020
Fourth Quarter
(October-December) 2019
February 28, 2020 By April 14, 2020

Structure of the Ontario Economy

How GDP is Measured

The Ontario Economic Accounts provide measurements of GDP using three different methodologies, by expenditure, income and industry.

The GDP by expenditure approach defines GDP as the aggregate of all expenditures on final consumption, gross capital formation and net trade by consumers, governments and businesses that occur within Ontario’s economy over a given time period. This measurement of GDP can also be defined as the sum of consumer spending, gross investment, government spending and net trade.

The GDP by income approach equates GDP to the total income earned through contributions to production within Ontario’s economy by labour and capital over a given time period. That is, GDP is the sum of all wages and salaries paid to employees, the gross operating surplus of businesses, gross mixed income and indirect taxes less subsidies.

The GDP by industry approach measures GDP by calculating the total output of the goods and services producing industries within Ontario’s economy and subtracting the cost of intermediate inputs used in final production. This approach can also be referred to as the value-added approach as it quantifies the additional value generated by industries through the production of final products within the economy.

For a full list of definitions used in the Ontario Economic Accounts, please see Statistics Canada’s System of Macroeconomic Accounts Glossary at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/13-605-x/gloss/gloss-a-eng.htm.

List of Data Tables

Income and Expenditure Data

Quarterly Data, 2016:Q1–2019:Q1

Table 1: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Income-Based)
Table 2: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure-Based)
Table 3: Ontario Gross Domestic Product at Chained 2012 Prices
Table 4: Sources and Disposition of Ontario Household Income
Table 5: Ontario Trade
Table 6: Ontario Trade (Chained 2012 Prices)
Table 7: Ontario Deflators

Annual Data, 2015-2018

Table 8: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Income-Based)
Table 9: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure-Based)
Table 10: Ontario Gross Domestic Product at Chained 2012 Prices
Table 11: Sources and Disposition of Ontario Household Income
Table 12: Ontario Trade
Table 13: Ontario Trade (Chained 2012 Prices)
Table 14: Ontario Deflators

Ontario Production by Industry at 2012 Prices

Table 15: Quarterly Data, 2016:Q1-2019:Q1
Table 16: Annual Data, 2015-2018

Historical tables, both annual and quarterly available from 1981.
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Graphic Descriptions

Highlights: Ontario GDP, First Quarter 2019

The chart indicates the per cent change in real and nominal GDP in the first quarter of 2019. Real GDP increased 0.1% and nominal GDP increased 0.6% in the quarter.

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Expenditure Details: Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly per cent real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2019. Ontario has experienced real GDP growth over the entire period. Real GDP rose 0.1% in the first quarter of 2019, following a 0.2% increase in the fourth quarter of 2018. The first quarter of 2017 recorded the strongest gain over the period, at 1.2%.

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Expenditure Details: Real GDP Change by Expenditure Component

The horizontal bar chart depicts the per cent change in Ontario’s real GDP and its components for the first quarter of 2019. Real GDP rose 0.1% in the quarter, with increases in household consumption (+0.4%), government (+0.7%), exports (+0.4%) and imports (+1.2%). Investment declined by 0.9%.

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Expenditure Details: Real Export and Import Growth

The bar chart shows the quarterly per cent change in real exports and imports from the first quarter of 2016 to the first quarter of 2019. Exports increased by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019 while imports increased 1.2%.

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Income Details: Nominal GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly per cent nominal GDP growth from the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2019. Ontario has experienced nominal GDP growth over the entire period, except for the third quarter of 2017, when growth was flat. Nominal GDP rose 0.6% in the first quarter of 2019, following a 0.1% increase in the fourth quarter of 2018. The third quarter of 2015 and first quarter of 2017 recorded the strongest gain over the period, at 1.8%.

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Income Details: Nominal GDP Change by Income Component

The horizontal bar chart depicts the per cent change in nominal GDP and its components for the first quarter of 2019. Nominal GDP rose 0.6% in the first quarter, with increases in net mixed income (+1.1%), compensation of employees (+0.6%) and net operating surplus (+0.3%).

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Income Details: Compensation of Employees Growth

The bar chart shows Ontario’s quarterly growth of employee compensation in per cent from the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2019. Compensation of employees has risen in every quarter over the period, except for the first quarter of 2016 when it declined by 0.6%. Compensation of employees rose 0.6% in the first quarter of 2019, following a 1.1% increase in the fourth quarter of 2018. The fourth quarter of 2017 recorded the strongest gain over the period, at 2.3%.

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Price Details: Economy-Wide Price Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly growth of economy-wide prices in per cent from the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2019. Economy-wide prices increased 0.5% in the first quarter of 2019, following a 0.1% decline in the fourth quarter of 2018. Since the first quarter of 2015, the strongest growth in prices was recorded in the first and third quarter of 2015 (+0.8%), while the largest decline was posted in the third quarter of 2017 (−0.4%).

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Price Details: Price Change by Expenditure Component

The horizontal bar chart shows the per cent change in prices by expenditure component for the first quarter of 2019. Prices increased for household consumption (+0.3%), business investment (+0.1%), government (+0.5%) and imports (+0.2%). Priced decreased for exports (−0.1%).

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Price Details: Export and Import Price Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly growth of export and import prices in per cent from the first quarter of 2016 to the first quarter of 2019. In the first quarter of 2019, export prices edged down 0.1% while import prices rose 0.2%. Since 2016, the largest gain in import prices (+2.3%) was in the second quarter of 2017 and 2018. The largest gain in export prices (+1.7%) was in the second quarter of 2018. The largest fall in import (−3.2%) and export (−3.0%) prices was in the third quarter of 2017.

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Industry Details: Real GDP Growth by Industry

The bar chart depicts Ontario’s quarterly growth of real GDP by industry in per cent from the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2019. Ontario real GDP advanced 0.1% in the first quarter of 2019, following a 0.2% gain in the fourth quarter. Real GDP by industry has grown over the entire period, except for flat in the second quarter of 2016, with the strongest gain of 1.3% recorded in the first quarter of 2017.

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Industry Details: Real GDP Change by Industry

The horizontal bar chart illustrates the per cent change in real GDP by industry category for the first quarter of 2019. The output of all industries grew 0.1% in the quarter. Output decreased in goods-producing industries (−0.4%), with industry changes as follows: manufacturing (+0.3%); utilities (−0.1%); construction (−1.2%); and, primary industries (−2.0%). Output in the service industries rose 0.3%, including industry changes as follows: professional and administrative services (+1.0%); wholesale trade (+0.7%); real estate, rental and leasing (+0.5%); finance and insurance (+0.3%); health, education and public administration (+0.2%); other service industries (0.0%); and, retail trade (−1.3%).

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Industry Details: Real GDP Change by Manufacturing Industry

The horizontal bar chart shows the per cent change in real GDP by manufacturing industry for the first quarter of 2019. In total, output by manufacturing industries increased 0.3% in the quarter. The change in output of each manufacturing industry is as follows: electrical and electronic (+9.7%); machinery (+3.7%); wood and furniture (+2.8%); other manufacturing (+2.1%); textile, clothing and leather (+2.1%);  food, beverage and tobacco (+1.1%); paper and printing (+1.0%); plastic and rubber (+0.7%); transportation equipment (+0.3%); primary and fabricated metal (−0.7%); and, chemical and petroleum (−4.8%).

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Juristictional Comparisons: Canadian Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Canada’s quarterly per cent real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2019. Canadian real GDP grew 0.1% in the first quarter of 2019, matching the fourth quarter increase. The largest gain over the period was 1.1% in the third quarter of 2016 and the second quarter of 2017, and the largest decline was 0.5% in the first quarter of 2015 and the second quarter of 2016.

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Jurisdictional Comparisons: Quebec Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Quebec’s quarterly per cent real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2019. Quebec has experienced real GDP growth in the entire period with the exception of the second and fourth quarter of 2015 which were unchanged. Quebec real GDP grew 0.6% in the first quarter, following a 0.7% increases in the previous two quarters. The largest gain over the period was 1.1% in the second quarter of 2017.

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Jurisdictional Comparisons: U.S. Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates the U.S.’s quarterly per cent real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2019. U.S. real GDP grew 0.8% in the first quarter, following a 0.5% gain in the fourth quarter. The U.S. has experienced real GDP growth over the entire period. The largest gain over the period was in the second quarter of 2018 (+1.0%).

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Employment: Ontario’s Labour Force

The chart indicates the change in Ontario’s employment and unemployment rate in the second quarter of 2019. Ontario’s employment rose by 65,100 net new jobs in the quarter. The unemployment rate was 5.4% in June 2019.

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Employment: Employment Gains in 2019 Q2

The horizontal bar chart illustrates the employment gains in thousands for the second quarter of 2019. Total employment rose by 65,100 in the quarter. Private sector employment increased by 21,900 while self-employment increased by 45,600. Public sector employment declined by 2,300. In the quarter, full-time employment rose by 36,700 and part-time employment rose by 28,400. On an industry basis, goods producing industries saw an increase of 16,700, while service-producing industries increased by 48,500.

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Employment: Ontario’s Employment and Unemployment Rate

The chart shows Ontario’s monthly employment level in thousands as a shaded area and unemployment rate as a line from January 2017 to June 2019. Ontario’s unemployment rate averaged 6.3% in the first half of 2017 but declined to 5.5% in August 2017. Between August 2017 and April 2019, the unemployment rate was between 5.4% and 6.0%. In May 2019, Ontario’s unemployment rate declined to 5.2% before increasing to 5.4% in June. Employment has increased steadily over the period from about 7.1 million in January 2017 to about 7.4 million in June 2019.

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Consumer and Business Activity: Retail Sales

The line chart shows Ontario’s retail sales in billions of dollars from January 2015 to April 2019. Ontario’s retail sales have trended upwards from $14.6 billion in January 2015 to $19.2 billion in April 2019.  Sales declined for three consecutive months from November 2018 to January 2019, but largely recovered over the following three months. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s retail sales rose 3.5% over the first four months of 2019.

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Consumer and Business Activity: Wholesale Trade

The line chart shows Ontario’s wholesale trade in billions of dollars from January 2015 to April 2019. Ontario’s wholesale trade has trended upwards from $25.9 billion in January 2015 to $33.3 billion in April 2019. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s wholesale trade rose 2.6% over the first four months of 2019.

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Consumer and Business Activity: Manufacturing Sales

The line chart shows Ontario’s manufacturing sales in billions of dollars from January 2015 to April 2019. Ontario’s manufacturing sales have trended upwards from $23.2 billion in January 2015 to $26.0 billion in April 2019. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s manufacturing sales rose 1.2% over the first four months of 2019.

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Housing: Home Resales

The line chart shows Ontario’s home resales in units from January 2015 to May 2019. Ontario’s home resales grew from about 17,500 units in January 2015 to over 21,500 in May 2017. Home resales declined to about 15,100 in July 2017, and recovered to about 19,500 in December 2017, before declining again to about 14,500 in February 2018. Since, home resales have slowly increased to about 16,800 in May 2019.

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Housing: Home Resale Prices

The line chart shows Ontario’s average home resale prices in dollars from January 2015 to May 2019. Ontario’s home resale price increased from $435,000 in January 2015 to a peak of $650,000 in March 2017. Average resales prices declined to $532,000 in July 2017 before increasing to almost $578,000 in December 2017. Subsequently prices trended down to $546,000 in May 2018 and have since risen to $593,000 in May 2019.

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Housing: Housing Starts

The line chart shows Ontario’s housing starts in thousands of units (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) from January 2015 to June 2019. Ontario’s housing starts were volatile over the period, with a peak of 106,000 units in February 2018 and a trough of 42,000 in February 2015. In June 2019, there were 66,000 starts.

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Global Economic Developments: Real GDP Growth

This bar chart shows quarterly percentage changes in real GDP for the U.S., the United Kingdom, the Euro area and Japan for the fourth quarter of 2018 and first quarter of 2019. In the fourth and first quarter, U.S. growth was 0.5% and 0.8%; United Kingdom growth was 0.2% and 0.5%; Euro area growth was 0.2% and 0.4%; and, Japan growth was 0.5% and 0.6%.

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Global Economic Developments: U.S. Net Trade Contribution to Real GDP Growth

The bar chart shows net trade’s quarterly percentage point contribution to U.S. real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2016 to the first quarter of 2019. The contribution was +1.0 percentage points in the first quarter of 2019, following a −0.1 percentage point contribution in the previous quarter. The largest negative contribution over the period was −2.0 percentage points in the third quarter of 2018 and the largest positive contribution was +1.2 percentage points in the second quarter of 2018.

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Global Economic Developments: U.S. Labour Market

This chart shows the U.S. unemployment rate in per cent as a line and employment growth in thousands of workers as bars, from January 2015 to June 2019. Over this period, employment has increased every month, and the unemployment rate has shown a downward trend. In June 2019, the U.S. unemployment rate was 3.7% and employment increased by 224,000 jobs.

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Global Economic Developments: Government of Canada 10-Year Bond Rates

This line chart shows rates for Government of Canada 10-year bonds from January 2016 to June 2019. The rate rose relatively steadily from about 1.3% at the beginning of 2016 to 2.6% in October 2018. Since, the rate has been declining, and as of late June, was around 1.5%.

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Global Economic Developments: Oil Prices and the Canadian Dollar

The line chart shows the daily oil prices ($US per barrel) and Canadian dollar exchange rate (cents U.S.) between January 2015 and June 2019. Both series declined from early 2015 through early 2016. Subsequently, the Canadian dollar rose, peaking at about 82 cents in September 2017 and has since declined to around 75 cents U.S. in June 2019. WTI oil prices rose steadily since 2016 and stood at about $76 US per barrel in early October 2018, before declining sharply to around $45 US per barrel at the end of 2018. Over the late-December to end of April period, oil prices increased from around $45 US per barrel to around $65 US per barrel. Oil prices decreased over most of the May-June period settling at the end of June to around $57 US per barrel.

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Global Economic Developments: Stock Market Indices

The line chart shows the daily value of the S&P 500, Nikkei, S&P TSX and Euro Stoxx 50 stock indexes from January 2015 to June 2019. Between late December 2018 and June 2019, all indices have increased.

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In Focus: Ontario Interprovincial Trade

This chart shows Ontario’s annual imports and exports as lines and the trade balance as bars, from 1981 to 2018. Over this period, interprovincial exports have increased from $38.8 billion in 1981 to $152.1 billion in 2018. Interprovincial Imports have risen from $26.1 billion in 1981 to $120.0 billion in 2018. The trade balance has been positive over the entire period. In 2018 the trade balance was $32.1 billion.

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In Focus: Ontario Interprovincial Exports

The chart shows Ontario’s interprovincial exports of goods and services as a stacked shaded area from 1981 to 2018. In 1981, interprovincial exports of services were $14.8 billion, accounting for 38% of total interprovincial exports, and has increased to $111.1 billion in 2018, accounting for 73% of total interprovincial exports. Interprovincial exports of goods have increased from $24.0 billion in 1981 to $41.0 billion in 2018, while its share of total interprovincial exports has decreased from 62% in 1981 to 27% in 2018.

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In Focus: Top Interprovincial Export Commodities, 2015

The bar chart illustrates the share of the largest interprovincial export commodities as a percent of total interprovincial exports in 2015. The list of largest interprovincial export commodities is as follows: finance insurance and depository credit (20.0%), wholesale margins and commissions (14.8%), admin and support services (8.2%), professional services (8.1%), food and non-alcoholic beverage (7.7%), transportation services (6.5%), primary metallic products (3.6%), informational and cultural services (3.5%) and real estate, rental and leasing (2.7%).

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Appendix: Per Cent Share of Nominal GDP, 2018

This pie chart shows the percent share of nominal GDP by industry for 2018. Goods-producing industries accounted for 22.7% of Ontario’s nominal GDP with industry shares as follows: manufacturing (12.2%), construction (6.7%), utilities (2.0%) and primary industries (1.9%). Services-producing industries accounted for 77.3% of Ontario’s nominal GDP with industry shares as follows: health and education (12.9%), real estate, rental and leasing (12.7%), wholesale and retail trade (11.4%), finance and insurance (9.6%), public administration (7.1%) transportation and warehousing (4.4%), information and culture (3.5%) and other services (15.8%).

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Appendix: GDP measurement methods

  • Expenditure Approach
    • Sum of expenditures of all sectors of the economy
    • Consumer Spending + Investment + Government Spending + Exports – Imports
  • Income Approach
    • Sum of all incomes
    • Wage and Salaries + Profits + Mixed Incomes + Indirect taxes – Subsidies
  • Production Approach (GDP by Industry)
    • Sum of value added in all industry sectors
    • Output of Goods Producing Industries + Output of Services Producing Industries – Intermediate Inputs

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