: Ontario Economic Accounts

Second Quarter of 2017
(April, May, June)
Ontario Ministry of Finance

Table of Contents

ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Highlights

Ontario’s Economy Continues to Grow

  • Ontario’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.8% in the second quarter (April, May, June) of 2017, following a 1.0% increase in the first quarter.
  • Second quarter growth was led by solid consumer spending, while exports also contributed. Business investment moderated overall growth.
  • Nominal GDP increased 0.6%, following a 2.0% gain in the first quarter. Compensation of employees rose by 0.7%, while the net operating surplus of corporations declined by 1.9%.
  • Economic production, measured on an industry basis, advanced 0.7%. Service sector output increased by 0.9%, while output in goods-producing industries edged down 0.1%.
  • Ontario real GDP growth outpaced the average of G7 countries in the second quarter of 2017.

Expenditure Details

Consumer Spending Boosts Real GDP

Ontario’s real GDP rose by 0.8% in the second quarter of 2017. Solid gains in consumer spending led the gain, while exports also contributed.

Ontario’s household consumption spending increased 1.2%, the strongest quarterly growth since 2010. Consumer spending on semi-durables advanced 5.3%, led by clothing and footwear. Spending on non-durables (+2.6%), durables (+0.3%) and services (+0.4%) also increased.

Business investment declined by 2.6%, following a strong 5.8% gain in the first quarter. The decline was due to lower residential construction investment (-6.4%), reflecting a slowdown in home resale activity. Business investment in non-residential structures (+3.1%), machinery and equipment (+1.8%) and intellectual property products (+0.4%) increased. Government spending increased by 0.7%, following a 0.3% rise in the first quarter.

Exports advanced 0.6% in the second quarter. International exports rose by 1.1%, while interprovincial exports declined by 0.4%. Imports increased by 0.3% in the quarter, following a 3.1% gain.

Businesses accumulated $5.5 billion of inventories, following an accumulation of $4.1 billion in the first quarter.

Final domestic demand, which excludes trade and inventories, advanced by 0.4% in the second quarter.

Income Details

Nominal GDP Continues to Rise

GDP in current dollars advanced 0.6%, following a 2.0% increase in the first quarter.

Compensation of employees, which includes both wages and salaries, and supplementary labour income, increased 0.7%, after a 1.0% gain in the first quarter. Net mixed income, which is comprised of farm, non-farm and rental income, rose 0.7%, following a 1.7% increase in the previous quarter.

Business sector profits, measured by the net operating surplus of corporations, decreased 1.9%, after an 8.5% gain in the first quarter.

Household disposable income increased 1.4%, after rising 0.8% in the previous quarter.

Household disposable income advanced at a faster pace than consumption expenditure. As a result, the household savings rate increased 0.2 percentage points to 3.0%.

Price Details

Economy-Wide Prices Decline

Economy-wide prices, as measured by the implicit price index for GDP, declined 0.2% in the second quarter, after rising 0.9% in the previous quarter.

Prices for household consumption expenditures decreased 0.2%, following a 0.2% gain in the first quarter. Prices for furniture, clothing, electricity and gasoline declined, while prices for motor vehicles and parts and food increased in the quarter.

Business investment prices decreased 0.7%, with declines in residential construction (-1.9%) and non-residential construction (-0.1%). Machinery and equipment (+1.9%) and intellectual property products (+0.4%) prices increased in the quarter.

In the trade sector, prices were higher for both exports (+2.2%) and imports (+2.5%). During this period the Canadian dollar depreciated by 1.6% against the U.S. dollar.

Industry Details

Service Industries Drive Growth

Based on production by industry, Ontario real GDP expanded 0.7% in the second quarter, following a gain of 1.3%. Service producing industries advanced by 0.9%, while the goods sector edged down 0.1%.

All service-producing industries increased output in the second quarter, with the largest contributions from finance and insurance (+2.1%) and retail trade (+2.1%). Professional and administrative services (+0.9%), real estate, rental and leasing (+0.5%) and wholesale trade (+0.7%) also posted notable gains.

In the goods-producing sector, primary industry output declined by 1.4%, led by lower output in mining (-2.0%). The decline was partially offset by an increase in utilities (+1.2%) output.

Construction sector output edged down 0.1%, driven by a decline in residential construction (-2.0%), following three consecutive quarterly gains. Non-residential building and engineering output (+1.4%) advanced in the quarter.

Manufacturing production was unchanged in the second quarter, following an increase of 1.8% in the first quarter. Gains in machinery (+3.4%) and primary and fabricated metal (+1.4%) were offset by lower output in food and beverage (-2.4%) and transportation equipment (-0.4%).

Jurisdictional Comparisons

Ontario Growth in a G7 Context

In the second quarter, Ontario’s real GDP growth outpaced the average of all G7 countries. Ontario’s growth matched that of the United States, but trailed Canada’s gain, in part due to a strong rebound in the resource sectors in other provinces.

Across the G7 countries, real GDP growth averaged 0.7%, up from a 0.4% rise in the first quarter of 2017. Canadian real GDP advanced 1.1%, after rising 0.9% in the preceding quarter, led by household consumption and exports. Quebec’s real GDP rose 0.6% in the second quarter, following a revised 0.7% gain. Household spending and inventory accumulation led Quebec’s growth in the quarter.

In the U.S., real GDP advanced 0.8% in the second quarter, following a 0.3% gain in the first quarter. Business investment and household consumption expenditure were the main drivers of real GDP growth in the quarter. Net trade also contributed to growth as exports outpaced imports.

Both Germany and Japan posted 0.6% gains in real GDP, while France grew by 0.5%. Output in the United Kingdom and Italy edged up 0.3% in the quarter.

Employment

Steady Growth in Ontario’s Labour Market Continues

Ontario’s employment advanced by 60,400 in the third quarter of 2017, following a gain of 3,700 in the second quarter.

Ontario’s unemployment rate was 5.6% in September 2017, below the national average for the 30th consecutive month.

As of September 2017, employment was 7.8% (+522,000 jobs) above the pre-recession peak and 12.5% (+794,500 jobs) above the recessionary low.

Since the recessionary low, the majority of jobs created were full-time positions (+730,900), while part-time employment (+63,400) also increased. Most of these net new jobs were in the private sector (+569,500) and in industries paying above–average wages (+590,800).

Trade

Retail and Wholesale Trade Continue to Rise

Retail sales and wholesale trade continue to advance strongly in 2017. On a year-to-date basis to July, retail sales increased 6.8%, while wholesale trade rose 9.1%. Gains have been widespread across most subsectors.

Manufacturing sales advanced 3.4% over the first seven months of 2017 compared to the same period a year ago, led by petroleum and coal, food and machinery manufacturing.

Ontario’s international merchandise exports declined 0.2% in the first seven months of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016. Exports to Ontario’s top market, the United States, declined (-1.7%), while exports to the United Kingdom (+14.8%) and China (+28.5%) rose.

Housing

Housing Market Moderation

Housing market activity in Ontario has moderated in recent months following strong gains in early 2017.

Sales of existing homes were 24.5% lower in August 2017 compared to a year earlier. Overall, for the first eight months of the year, home resales were 7.4% lower than a year ago. The decline has primarily been concentrated in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).

Ontario average home resale prices have also moderated. In August, the average home resale price was $550,000, down 14.3% from the March peak of $642,000. Compared to a year earlier, prices were essentially unchanged in August.

Housing starts advanced 7.2% in the first nine months of 2017 compared to the same period a year earlier. Both single-detached and multiple-family starts increased on a year-to-date basis.

Global Economic Developments

Global Economy Improves, U.S. GDP Growth Rebounds in Q2

Global economic growth expectations for 2017 have gradually improved. Economic momentum has picked up in the euro zone, while Japan experienced its strongest quarterly real GDP growth in over two years. Chinese real GDP continues to grow at a strong pace, helped by supportive financial sector conditions and fiscal policy.

U.S. real GDP growth picked up in the second quarter to its strongest pace in two years, rising to 0.8% from 0.3% in the first quarter. Improved household spending contributed to the pickup, as growth accelerated to 0.8% in the second quarter from 0.5%. Non-residential business investment continued to see strong gains, up 1.6%, as business confidence remains high. Net trade also contributed positively to GDP growth. The biggest drag on real GDP growth was a reversal in housing investment, which declined 1.9% in the second quarter following a solid 2.7% gain the first quarter. Economic indicators point to weaker overall growth in the third quarter as the devastating impact of hurricanes Harvey and Irma will likely result in a temporary reduction in economic activity.

U.S. payroll employment growth slowed in the third quarter, but still increased by a robust 428,000. Conditions in the labour market remain very tight with the unemployment rate at 4.2% in September. After holding around 2.5% since April, average hourly wage growth accelerated sharply to 2.9% in September (year-over-year).

Interest Rate Hikes Boost Canadian Dollar

Strength in the Canadian economy has led the Bank of Canada to raise the overnight rate. The rate hike in July was the first increase in seven years and was closely followed by a second increase in September that together lifted the overnight rate 50 basis points to 1.0%. These increases fully reversed the 2015 rate reductions intended to cushion the economy against the downturn in oil prices.

The Bank of Canada’s move influenced an appreciation in the Canadian dollar from around 75 cents U.S. in mid-June to near 80 cents U.S. by late-September. The increase in the Canadian dollar occurred alongside firming oil prices. Since mid-June, WTI oil prices have gradually risen from under $44 U.S. per barrel to near $50 U.S. per barrel by late-September. International oil prices have risen to a greater degree as hurricane-related refinery and transportation disruptions have led to lower U.S. oil demand, boosting available North American supply.

The improved growth outlook has contributed to a strong performance in U.S. equity markets while firming oil prices have helped boost Canadian markets. Between the middle of June and late September, both the S&P 500 and the TSX Composite have risen around 3%.

In Focus

Educational Attainment of the Adult Population: Ontario, Canada and the OECD

Postsecondary education (PSE) is defined as completed college or university education. However, international results are not directly comparable due to methodological differences. For example, data in Canada and Ontario include college-based apprenticeship and short training programs that do not lead to a postsecondary certificate or diploma.

A higher PSE attainment share generally corresponds with a higher level of productivity. In addition, employees with PS education are more successful in the knowledge based economy and are better able to adapt to a rapidly changing work force.

In 2016, the educational attainment rate (share of adults aged 25–64 having completed postsecondary education) for Ontario was 68.0%, up from 67.1% in 2015.

Canada and Ontario continue to lead all OECD countries. In 2016, Canada recorded the highest rate of postsecondary attainment among OECD countries (67%), significantly above the OECD average of 42%.

Among Canadian provinces, Ontario ranks second in terms of the percentage of 25-64 year olds with some form of completed postsecondary education (68.0%), just behind Quebec (68.9%).  However, Ontario ranks first in the rate of attainment for university credentials (34.5%).

Immigration continues to contribute to Canada’s and Ontario’s very high education attainment rate. In 2016, nearly three-quarters of Ontario’s most recent immigrants (five years or less) had postsecondary credentials (72.8%), exceeding the rate for native-born counterparts (66.7%). Despite this, Ontario’s most recent immigrants experienced a lower employment rate (69.2%) than native-born (84.0%).

Appendix

Structure of the Ontario Economy

How GDP is Measured

The Ontario Economic Accounts provide measurements of GDP using three different methodologies: by expenditure, income and industry.

The GDP by expenditure approach defines GDP as the aggregate of all expenditures on final consumption, gross capital formation and net trade by consumers, governments and businesses that occur within Ontario’s economy over a given time period. This measurement of GDP can also be defined as the sum of consumer spending, gross investment, government spending and net trade.

The GDP by income approach equates GDP to the total income earned through contributions to production within Ontario’s economy by labour and capital over a given time period. That is, GDP is the sum of all wages and salaries paid to employees, the gross operating surplus of businesses, gross mixed income and indirect taxes less subsidies.

The GDP by industry approach measures GDP by calculating the total output of the goods and services producing industries within Ontario’s economy and subtracting the cost of intermediate inputs used in final production. This approach can also be referred to as the value-added approach as it quantifies the additional value generated by industries through the production of final products within the economy.

For a full list of definitions used in the Ontario Economic Accounts, please see Statistics Canada’s System of Macroeconomic Accounts Glossary at http://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/nea/gloss/gloss_a.

List of Data Tables

Income and Expenditure Data

Quarterly Data, 2014:1–2017:2

Table 1: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Income-Based)
Table 2: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure-Based)
Table 3: Ontario Gross Domestic Product at Chained 2007 Prices
Table 4: Sources and Disposition of Ontario Household Income
Table 5: Ontario Trade
Table 6: Ontario Trade (Chained 2007 Prices)
Table 7: Ontario Deflators

Annual Data, 2013-2016

Table 8: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Income-Based)
Table 9: Ontario Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure-Based)
Table 10: Ontario Gross Domestic Product at Chained 2007 Prices
Table 11: Sources and Disposition of Ontario Household Income
Table 12: Ontario Trade
Table 13: Ontario Trade (Chained 2007 Prices)
Table 14: Ontario Deflators

Ontario Production by Industry at 2007 Prices

Table 15: Quarterly Data, 2014:1-2017:2
Table 16: Annual Data, 2013-2016

Historical tables, both annual and quarterly available from 1981.
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Graphic Descriptions

Highlights: Ontario GDP, Second Quarter 2017

The chart indicates the per cent change in real and nominal GDP in the second quarter of 2017. Real GDP rose 0.8%, while nominal GDP increased 0.6% in the quarter.

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Expenditure Details: Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly per cent change in real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2017. Ontario has experienced real GDP growth over the entire period. Real GDP rose 0.8% in the second quarter of 2017, following a 1.0% increase in the first quarter of 2017. The third quarter of 2014 recorded the strongest gain at 1.1%.

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Expenditure Details: Real GDP Change by Expenditure Component

The horizontal bar chart depicts the per cent change in Ontario’s real GDP and its components for the second quarter of 2017. Real GDP rose 0.8% in the quarter, with increases in household consumption (+1.2%) and government spending (+0.7%) and a decline in business investment (-2.6%). Exports (+0.6%) and imports (+0.3%) both increased.

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Expenditure Details: Real Export and Import Growth

The bar chart shows the quarterly per cent change in real exports and imports from the first quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2017. Exports increased 0.6% in the second quarter of 2017, while imports increased 0.3%.

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Income Details: Nominal GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly per cent change in nominal GDP growth from the first quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2017. Ontario has experienced nominal GDP growth over the entire period. Nominal GDP rose 0.6% in the second quarter of 2017, following a 2.0% increase in the first quarter of 2017. The third quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of 2017 recorded the strongest gains at 2.0%.

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Income Details: Nominal GDP Change by Income Component

The horizontal bar chart depicts the per cent change in nominal GDP and its components for the second quarter of 2017. Nominal GDP rose 0.6%, with increases in compensation of employees (+0.7%), net mixed income (+0.7%) and indirect taxes less subsidies (+2.8%). Net operating surplus declined 1.9%.

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Income Details: Compensation of Employees Growth

The bar chart shows Ontario’s quarterly growth of employee compensation in per cent from the first quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2017. Compensation of employees rose 0.7% in the second quarter of 2017, following a 1.0% increase in the first quarter of 2017. The first quarter of 2015 recorded the strongest gain of 1.7%.

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Price Details: Economy-Wide Price Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly growth of economy-wide prices in per cent from the first quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2017. Ontario posted a 0.2% decrease in economy-wide prices in the second quarter of 2017, following a 0.9% rise in the previous quarter. Since the first quarter of 2014, the strongest growth in prices was recorded in the first quarter of 2014 (+1.3%), while the largest decline was posted in the fourth quarter of 2014 (-0.3%).

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Price Details: Price Change by Expenditure Component

The horizontal bar chart shows the per cent change in prices by expenditure component for the second quarter of 2017. The overall GDP deflator edged down 0.2%, with lower prices for business investment (-0.7%) and household consumption (-0.2%). Prices increased for imports (+2.5%), exports (+2.2%) and government spending (+0.9%) in the quarter.

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Price Details: Export and Import Price Growth

The bar chart illustrates Ontario’s quarterly growth of export and import prices in per cent from the first quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2017. In the second quarter of 2017, prices were higher for both exports (+2.2%) and imports (+2.5%). Since 2015, there were only three quarters where export and import prices both recorded declines.

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Industry Details: Real GDP Growth by Industry

The bar chart depicts Ontario’s quarterly growth of real GDP by industry in per cent from the first quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2017. Ontario real GDP advanced 0.7% in the second quarter of 2017, following a 1.3% gain in the first quarter of 2017. Over the entire period, real GDP by industry has grown consistently, with the strongest gain of 1.3% recorded in the first quarter of 2017.

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Industry Details: Real GDP Change by Industry

The horizontal bar chart illustrates the per cent change in real GDP by industry category for the second quarter of 2017. The output of all industries grew 0.7% in the quarter, with output rising 0.9% in the service industries and edging down 0.1% in goods-producing industries. The change in output of each industry is as follows: finance and insurance (+2.1%), wholesale and retail trade (+1.3%), professional and administrative services (+0.9%), other services (+0.6%), real estate, rental and leasing (+0.5%), health, education and public administration (+0.4%), utilities (+1.2%), manufacturing (+0.0%), construction (-0.1%) and primary industries (-1.4%).

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Industry Details: Real GDP Change by Manufacturing Industry

The horizontal bar chart shows the per cent change in real GDP by manufacturing industry for the second quarter of 2017. In total, output by manufacturing industries remained flat in the quarter. The change in output of each manufacturing industry is as follows: machinery (+3.4%), primary and fabricated metal (+1.4%), chemical and petroleum (+0.9%), electrical and electronic (+0.7%), textile, clothing and leather (+0.7%), transportation equipment (-0.4%), plastic and rubber (-0.6%), wood and furniture (-0.8%), other (-0.9%), paper and printing (-1.3%) and food, beverage and tobacco (-2.4%) manufacturing.

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Jurisdictional Comparisons: Real GDP Growth, G7 and Ontario

The bar chart shows the quarterly per cent change in real GDP for all G7 countries, Ontario and the G7 average for the second quarter of 2017. The change in real GDP for each jurisdiction is as follows: United Kingdom (+0.3%), Italy (+0.3%), France (+0.5%), Japan (+0.6%), Germany (+0.6%), G7 Average (+0.7%), United States (+0.8%), Ontario (+0.8%) and Canada (+1.1%).

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Jurisdictional Comparisons: Canadian Real GDP Growth

The bar chart shows the quarterly per cent change in real GDP in Canada from the first quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2017. Canadian GDP rose 1.1% in the second quarter of 2017, following a 0.9% increase in the first quarter of 2017. Over the entire period, the strongest gain of 1.1% was posted in the second quarter of 2017.

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Jurisdictional Comparisons: U.S. Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates U.S. quarterly real GDP growth from the first quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2017. U.S. real GDP rose 0.8% in the second quarter of 2017, following a 0.3% gain posted in the first quarter of 2017. Over the entire period, U.S. real GDP has grown consistently, with the exception of a 0.2% decline in the first quarter of 2014. The third quarter of 2014 recorded the strongest gain of 1.3%.

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Employment: Ontario’s Labour Force

The chart indicates the change in Ontario’s employment in the third quarter of 2017 and unemployment rate in September 2017. Ontario’s employment rose by 60,400 net new jobs in the third quarter, while the unemployment rate was 5.6% in September 2017.

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Employment: Ontario’s Labour Market Strengthening

The combination line and area chart show Ontario’s unemployment rate (line chart) and employment (area chart) from January 2008 to September 2017. Ontario’s unemployment rate has trended downwards since the recession, reaching 5.6% in September 2017. Employment in Ontario has risen steadily since the recession, reaching almost 7.2 million workers in September 2017, putting it well over the pre-recession level of roughly 6.6 million.

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Employment: Employment Gains Concentrated in Full-Time, Private Sector, Above Average Wage Jobs

The bar chart shows different characteristics of Ontario employment gains since June 2009. Total employment increased by 794,500 since June 2009, with full-time employment up by 730,900, while part-time employment rose by 63,400. Private-sector employment increased by 569,500, while public-sector employment rose by 105,500 and self-employment was up by 119,400. Employment in above-average wage industries rose by 590,800 compared to a 203,600 employment increase in below-average wage industries.

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Trade: Retail Sales

The line chart shows Ontario’s retail sales in billions of dollars from January 2014 to July 2017. Ontario’s retail sales have steadily trended upwards since January 2014. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s retail sales advanced 6.8% over the first seven months of 2017, compared to the same period in 2016.

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Trade: Wholesale Trade

The line chart shows Ontario’s wholesale trade in billions of dollars from January 2014 to July 2017. Ontario’s wholesale trade has steadily trended upwards since January 2014. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s wholesale trade rose 9.1% over the first seven months of 2017, compared to the same period in 2016.

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Trade: Manufacturing Sales

The line chart shows Ontario’s manufacturing sales in billions of dollars from January 2014 to July 2017. Ontario’s manufacturing sales have trended upwards in 2014 and 2015, with most of the growth occurring at the end of 2015. Following the strong start to 2016, manufacturing sales declined before resuming an upward trend into 2017, until declining in June and July 2017. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s manufacturing sales rose 3.4% over the first seven months of 2017, compared to the same period in 2016.

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Housing: Home Resales

The line chart shows Ontario’s home resales in units from January 2014 to August 2017. Ontario’s home resales grew from about 15,000 in January 2014 to over 22,000 in March 2017. Home resales have since declined, to about 16,000 in August 2017. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s home resales have declined 7.4% over the first eight months of 2017, compared to the same period in 2016.

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Housing: Home Resale Prices

The line chart shows Ontario’s average home resale prices in dollars from January 2014 to August 2017. Ontario’s home resale price increased from $421,000 in January 2014 to a peak of $642,000 in March 2017. Average resales prices declined to $539,000 in June 2017 and have since increased to $550,000 in August 2017. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s home resale prices rose 13.4% over the first eight months of 2017, compared to the same period one year ago.

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Housing: Housing Starts

The line chart shows Ontario’s housing starts in thousands of units (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) from January 2014 to September 2017. Ontario’s housing starts reached a peak of over 100,000 units in January 2017 and a low of roughly 42,000 in March 2014. On a year-to-date basis, Ontario’s housing starts rose 7.2% over the first nine months of 2017, compared to the same period one year ago.

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Global Economic Developments: Real GDP Growth in 2017

The bar chart shows the annual per cent change in real GDP for the world, Euro zone, United Kingdom, United States and Canada for 2017 based on March and September forecasts. The September forecast for growth of the world economy was raised to 3.0% compared to the March forecast (+2.8%). For the Euro zone, the forecast for real GDP growth in 2017 was raised to 2.1% compared to the March forecast (+1.6%). The United Kingdom real GDP growth forecast declined from 1.7% in March to 1.6% in September. The United States real GDP forecast remained 2.2%, while the forecast for real GDP growth in 2017 in Canada increased from 2.1% in March to 3.0% in September.

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Global Economic Developments: U.S. Real GDP Growth

The bar chart illustrates the quarterly per cent change in real GDP in the U.S. from the first quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2017. U.S. real GDP rose 0.8% in the second quarter of 2017, following a 0.3% gain posted in the first quarter of 2017. Over the entire period, U.S. real GDP has grown consistently, with the exception of a 0.2% decline in the first quarter of 2014. The third quarter of 2014 recorded the strongest gain of 1.3%.

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Global Economic Developments: U.S. Labour Market

This bar and line chart shows the U.S. unemployment rate (line chart) and employment (bar chart) from January 2016 to September 2017. Over this period, the unemployment rate has trended downwards while employment rose in every month except for September 2017.

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Global Economic Developments: Government Bond Yields

The line chart shows the daily rates of the 10-year government bond yield and three-month treasuries yield from the Government of Canada from January 2016 to September 2017. After declining from over 1.8% in mid-March, the yield on the 10-year government bond gradually eased to under 1.4% at the start of June, before increasing to over 2.0% by the end of September 2017. The yield on three-month treasuries also rose from under 0.5% in January 2017, to over 0.7% in during the summer, to above 1.0% by mid-September 2017.

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Global Economic Developments: Oil Prices and the Canadian Dollar

The line chart shows the daily oil prices ($US per barrel) and Canadian dollar (cents U.S.) between January 2016 and September 2017. After declining between mid-April and mid-May, the Canadian dollar has risen against the U.S. dollar to above 82 cents U.S. in early September. Since mid-June, oil prices have gradually risen from under $44 U.S. per barrel to near $50 U.S. per barrel by late-September.

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Global Economic Developments: Stock Indexes

The line chart shows the daily value of the S&P 500 and TSX stock indexes from January 2016 to September 2017. Both indexes represented in the chart follow a similar trend, declining to their lowest values at the beginning of 2016. Since then, equity markets have trended upwards, where between the middle of June and late September, both the S&P 500 and the TSX Composite have risen around 3%.

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In Focus: Share of Adult Population with Postsecondary Credentials, Ontario and OECD, 2016

The bar chart shows the share of 25-64 years old with college or university credentials for all OECD countries and Ontario in 2016. The share for each jurisdiction is as follows: Ontario (68%), Canada (67%), Ireland (56%), New Zealand (51%), Japan (50%), Israel (50%), Australia (49%), Sweden (48%), Iceland (48%), Estonia (47%), Korea (47%), United Kingdom (46%), United States (46%), Luxembourg (45%), Finland (45%), Norway (44%), Switzerland (41%), Latvia (40%), Germany (40%), Greece (39%), Belgium (39%), Denmark (39%), Netherlands (36%), Spain (36%), France (35%), Austria (34%), Poland (32%), Hungary (32%), Slovenia (31%), Portugal (25%), Slovak Republic (24%), Czech Republic (23%), Chile (22%), Turkey (19%), Italy (19%), and Mexico (17%) with an OECD country average at 42%.

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In Focus: Share of the Adult Population with Postsecondary Credentials, Canada and Provinces, 2016

The bar chart shows the share of 25-64 years old with college or university credentials for Canada and all provinces in 2016. The share for each jurisdiction is as follows: Quebec (68.9%), Ontario (68.0%), Nova Scotia (67.0%), Canada (66.9%), Alberta (66.5%), British Columbia (64.9%), Prince Edward Island (64.3%), Newfoundland and Labrador (64.1%), Saskatchewan (61.0%), New Brunswick (60.7%) and Manitoba (59.4%).

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In Focus: Share of Immigrants and Canadian-Born with Postsecondary Education, Ontario and Canada, 2016

The bar chart shows the share of 25-64 years old with college or university credentials of immigrants and Canadian-born for Canada and Ontario in 2016. The share for each group is as follows: born in Canada (65.1% for Canada and 66.7% for Ontario), non-landed immigrants (74.7% for Canada and 71.7% for Ontario), established immigrants, 10+ years (69.1% for Canada and 68.9% for Ontario), recent immigrants, 5+ to 10 years (76.2% for Canada and 74.9% for Ontario) and very recent immigrants, 5 years or less (76.4% for Canada and 72.8% for Ontario).

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Appendix: Per Cent Share of Nominal GDP, 2016

The pie chart illustrates Ontario’s shares of nominal GDP by industry in 2016. The good-producing industries accounted for 22.5% of nominal GDP, including manufacturing (11.9%), construction (6.7%), utilities (2.1%) and primary (1.8%). The service producing industries accounted for 77.5% of nominal GDP, including other services (15.2%), real estate and rental and leasing (13.3%), health and education (12.5%), wholesale and retail trade (11.9%), finance and insurance (9.8%), public administration (7.1%), transportation and warehousing (3.9%) and information and culture (3.8%).

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Appendix: GDP measurement methods

  • Expenditure Approach
    • Sum of expenditures of all sectors of the economy
    • Consumer Spending + Investment + Government Spending + Exports – Imports
  • Income Approach
    • Sum of all incomes
    • Wage and Salaries + Profits + Mixed Incomes
  • Production Approach (GDP by Industry)
    • Sum of value added in all industry sectors
    • Output of Goods Producing Industries + Output of Services Producing Industries – Intermediate Inputs

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