Vertical Fiscal Imbalance

Fiscal Prospects for the Federal and Provincial/Territorial Governments

July 2002


ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND TRENDS


Preface

The study was made possible through funding by the Canadian provinces and territories. In keeping with Conference Board guidelines for financed research, the design and method of research as well as the content of this study were determined solely by The Conference Board of Canada.

The research was conducted by Gavin Hales, Senior Economist, Yves St-Maurice, Principal Research Associate, and Pedro Antunes, Associate Director, Economic Services, under the direction of Luc Bussière, Director of the Economic Services Group.

About The Conference Board of Canada

The Conference Board of Canada is the foremost independent, notfor-profit applied research organization in Canada. We help build leadership capacity for a better Canada by creating and sharing insights on economic trends, public policy issues, and organizational performance. We forge relationships and deliver knowledge through our learning events, networks, research products, and customized information services. Our members include a broad range of Canadian organizations from the public and private sectors. The Conference Board of Canada was formed in 1954, and is affiliated with The Conference Board, Inc. that serves some 3,000 companies in 67 nations.

©2002 The Conference Board of Canada*
Printed in Canada · All rights reserved
*Incorporated as AERIC Inc.

Fiscal Prospects for the Federal and Provincial/Territorial Governments
Economic Performance and Trends

ISBN 2-550-39628-6
Legal deposit
Bibliothèque nationale du Québec, 2002
Publication date : July 2002


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1 STUDY PURPOSE
2 METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS
3 CANADIAN OUTLOOK
3.1 Demographic Assumptions
3.2 Short-Term Economic Outlook: 2002/03 and 2003/04
3.3 Long-Term Economic Outlook: 2004/05 to 2019/20
4 PUBLIC HEALTH CARE
4.1 Health Expenditures Model
4.2 Spending Projections
5 PUBLIC EDUCATION
5.1 Education Expenditures Model
5.2 Spending Projections
6 FISCAL PROSPECTS
6.1 Federal Government
6.2 Total Provincial/Territorial Government
7 CONCLUSION
APPENDIX A


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In May 2002, the provincial and territorial Ministers of Finance asked the Conference Board of Canada to extend the February 2002 study prepared for Québec's Commission on Fiscal Imbalance to cover all of the provinces and territories. The results of this national study are now available.

Vertical fiscal imbalance exists when the distribution of revenue resources between the federal and provincial/territorial orders of government is inconsistent with the cost of meeting their respective constitutional spending responsibilities.

This study examines the issue of vertical fiscal imbalance between the federal and provincial/territorial governments over the long term. Its main objective is to project the Public Accounts of the federal and aggregate provincial/territorial governments, with an emphasis on determining the impact of demographic changes on the cost of public health care and education spending out to 2019/20. While the presence of fiscal imbalance raises many fundamental questions about governments' sources of revenue and the composition of their spending, this study does not attempt to answer these issues. Its goal is more modest. It answers the basic question: is there an imbalance between the budgetary leeway of the federal government and that of the provincial and territorial governments in Canada? Based on a projection of the fiscal and budgetary status quo, the answer is definitely yes.

The long-term projections presented in this study are based on maintaining the status quo with respect to fiscal and budgetary policy. As a result, all federal and provincial/territorial tax rates remain at their current levels unless the changes have been already announced in past budget documents. Similarly, there are no new government spending initiatives included in these projections, aside from those already announced in past federal and provincial/territorial budgets. All budgetary surpluses in a given fiscal year are earmarked exclusively for debt reduction. The status quo assumption is aimed at evaluating the governments' fiscal room-to-manoeuvre and thus, to indicate the degree of latitude available to them to implement new initiatives, or, conversely, the budgetary actions needed to balance the books.

The 2002 edition of the Conference Board of Canada's (CBoC) Canadian longterm economic outlook serves as a backdrop for projecting the federal and total provincial/territorial governments' Public Accounts. However, for the purpose of this study, this baseline forecast had to be customised in order to leave current budgetary and fiscal policy unchanged. It was also updated to incorporate, as a starting point, actual data for the first quarter of 2002 as shown in the latest release of Statistics Canada's National Income Accounts (NIA). Furthermore, two satellite models were built in order to take into account the effect of demographic changes on the provinces and territories' two main areas of spending, namely health care and education.

The health expenditure analysis is based on historical movements in real (inflation-adjusted) public per capita health care spending for each of eighteen age and gender cohorts. Public health expenditures are projected forward from the fiscal year 2001/02 to 2019/20 based on projections of real per capita expenditures and the changing distribution of the population. As Canada's population will continue to grow and age, total provincial and territorial public health expenditures will reach $166.5 billion in 2019/20, up from $63.5 billion in 2000/01. This translates to an average annual compound growth rate of 5.2 per cent in public health expenditures over the forecast period. As a share of total provincial/territorial budgetary revenues, public health expenditures are projected to increase from 32.4 per cent in 2000/01 to 44.8 per cent in 2019/20, an increase of 12.4 percentage points over the next twenty years.

The education model also uses regression results to forecast changes in spending for three levels of education, namely elementary/secondary schools, colleges and universities. Overall, education spending by the provinces and territories will increase by an average of 3.2 per cent per year until 2019/20 due to the projected decline in the student population. The proportion of budgetary revenues earmarked for education, which stood at 19.5 per cent in 2000/01, will ease to 18.8 per cent in 2019/20.

The federal government's fiscal prospects are in sharp contrast with those for the provincial/territorial governments. While federal government surpluses are projected to rise steadily over the next two decades, reaching $85.5 billion, the provinces and territories will collectively be in a deficit position throughout the forecast period. Under current revenue and spending structures, the federal government is forecast to achieve multi-billion-dollar surpluses large enough to virtually eliminate its interest-bearing debt by 2019/20. On the other hand, the aggregate provincial/territorial net debt will increase by 54 per cent to reach $386.9 billion.

With the current fiscal regimes in place, the vertical fiscal imbalance will widen in the future, as only the federal government has the financial capacity to implement new initiatives such as tax cuts and new discretionary program spending. This is because the federal government will be able to achieve a budgetary surplus each year, thereby paying down the debt and entering the so-called "virtuous circle" of fiscal performance. In contrast, the provinces and territories will have no leeway to implement new policy initiatives over the next two decades. On aggregate, they will neither be able to increase spending nor cut taxes without falling more into deficit.

This study examines the aggregate position of all provinces and territories but the fiscal capacity of individual provinces may be quite varied. Population growth, demographic composition, economic prospects and the initial state of the Public Accounts are quite different among Canada's regions. Thus, beyond the scope of this study, there is a need for research to examine the issue of fiscal imbalance for each individual province and territory compared to the federal government.

The Canadian economy is expected to close the output gap over the next few years and expand at the same pace as its potential output thereafter. It is critical to note that the effect of the inevitable business cycles would not significantly change the conclusions of this analysis nor alter the average growth in output projected over the forecast horizon. This is due to the common acceleration of economic growth during recovery phases that typically follow periods of economic downturn.

Great care was exercised in choosing all of the underlying assumptions required for this research. We believe that the long-term forecast presented in this study is the most probable under the status quo scenario with respect to budgetary and fiscal policy, in light of the information available when the study was prepared.

1 STUDY PURPOSE

The main objective of this study is to project the Public Accounts of the federal and provincial/territorial governments, with an emphasis on determining the impact of demographic changes on the cost of public health care and education spending over the next twenty years. To this end, revenues and expenditures for the two orders of government have been broken out and projected according to the budget items commonly found in budget documents.

These projections are based on maintaining the status quo with respect to fiscal and budgetary policy. As a result, all federal and provincial/territorial tax rates remain at their current level unless the changes have been already announced in past budget documents. There are no new government spending initiatives included in our projections. The ultimate goal of the study is to measure the room-to-manoeuvre of each level of government in terms of budgetary policy. It gives some indication of the means available to the federal and aggregate provincial/territorial governments to implement new initiatives or, conversely, the budgetary actions needed to balance the books.

The expression "vertical fiscal imbalance" is used to describe a situation where the distribution of revenue resources between the federal and provincial/territorial orders of government is inconsistent with spending responsibilities.

This report is divided into seven chapters. Following the objectives of the study is Chapter 2 which presents the overall research methodology and assumptions adopted for this forecasting exercise. The third chapter presents an overview of the long-term economic outlook for Canada as well as the underlying demographic projections. Chapter 4 describes the methodology used to determine the public health care expenditure forecast. Included in this chapter are the data sources, a description of the satellite model developed to forecast public health care expenditures and the spending projections. Similarly, the results for public education spending are presented in Chapter 5. The fiscal prospects for the federal and provincial/territorial governments are presented in Chapter 6. A summary of the forecast results and the study's conclusions are contained in the seventh and final chapter.

A series of tables containing the detailed results from the study is also included as Appendix A. These tables display relevant data used for the analysis including data on key economic indicators, public finance, demographics, health expenditures by age cohort as well as public education spending per student.

2 METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS

The main objective of this study is to project the federal and provincial/territorial governments' Public Accounts while maintaining the status quo with respect to budgetary and fiscal policy for the next two decades. This forecasting exercise makes it possible to better understand changes in the financial situation of the two orders of government by accounting for their respective program responsibilities in light of economic growth and tax revenues.

The status quo with respect to budgetary and fiscal policy means that there are no new spending initiatives or tax changes included in our projections, aside from those already announced in past federal and provincial/territorial budgets. All budgetary surpluses in a given fiscal year will be earmarked exclusively for debt reduction. The status quo assumption is aimed at evaluating governments' fiscal room-to-manoeuvre and thus, to indicate the degree of latitude available to them to implement new initiatives.

Budgetary revenues for the federal and provincial/territorial governments are a function of key determinants from the Board's long-term economic outlook. For instance, direct taxes are a function of personal income and corporate profits. Revenues generated by indirect taxes are based on consumer spending or on economic activity in general. Note that the two orders of government have access to all major tax bases: personal and corporate income taxes, sales taxes and payroll taxes. All these tax rates and tax bases are explicitly taken into account in the Board's macroeconomic model.

The provinces and territories are constitutionally responsible for health, education and other significant social programs. For this study, satellite models have been developed in order to determine a detailed long-term profile of public health care and education expenditures. Using equations of the Board's macroeconomic model, we also forecast all the other components of government program spending. Meanwhile, the model's fiscal block determines debt levels and corresponding debt-servicing costs for the two orders of government.

It is important to note that all the data and simulation results have been converted from a calendar year basis to a fiscal year basis. This was done so that the federal and provincial/territorial governments' Public Accounts data would be compatible with other data from the Board's macroeconomic model.

Great care was exercised in choosing all of the underlying assumptions required for this research. We believe that the simulation results presented in this study are the most probable under the status quo scenario with respect to budgetary and fiscal policy, in light of the information available when the study was prepared. Thus, results allow for a balanced analysis of the fiscal prospects for the federal and provincial/territorial governments.

3 CANADIAN OUTLOOK

The long-term economic outlook for Canada is generated using the Board's National Forecasting Model. There are a number of important inputs into this model, including a population forecast provided by Statistics Canada. This updated long-term economic outlook is based on the National Income Accounts (NIA) for the first quarter of 2002 and on maintaining the status quo with respect to fiscal policy. Thus, this forecast differs from the CBoC's long-term outlook released in December 2001.

The Board's most recent forecast calls for the Canadian economy to move back towards its potential output over the short-term, reaching potential by the end of 2003/04. Potential output is defined as a measure of economic activity that can be sustained in an economy, without accelerating inflation, over a long period when all factors of production are fully and efficiently employed. Next, it is assumed that Canada will be able to stay at potential for the remainder of the forecast horizon (from 2004/05 to 2019/20). There are no more business cycles once the Canadian economy reaches its potential output, a common assumption for long-term economic forecasts. However, it is critical to note that the introduction of business cycles into the forecasting scenario would not significantly alter the average growth in output over the forecast horizon. This is due to the common acceleration of economic growth during recovery phases that typically follow periods of economic downturn.

3.1 DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS

The evolving demographic structure of the population is a critical factor determining the long-term outlook for Canada as well as the estimates of public health care and education expenditures for the next twenty years.

Overall, Canada's population is expected to rise, albeit slowly over the long term. From a recorded increase of 0.9 per cent in 2000/01, population growth will slow to an average annual compound rate of 0.7 per cent between 2001/02 and 2019/20. This will result in a 4.7 million person increase over the next twenty years as our population is expected to reach 35.5 million, up from 30.8 million in 2000/01.

Note that the Board obtains projections of population by age and gender cohort from Statistics Canada. In order for Statistics Canada to develop these projections, however, assumptions regarding fertility rates, mortality rates and net international migration flows were required and provided by the Board.

The population projections in the current outlook assume a constant fertility rate of 1.55 births per woman. This is well below the standard replacement rate of 2.1 but consistent with recent trends. Low fertility together with an ageing population will suppress the birth rate over the long term.

Mortality rates are also held constant over the forecast period but the number of people entering higher risk age cohorts will expand. This implies that the death rate will rise in Canada over the next twenty years. As a result, the natural increase in the population (births minus deaths) is projected to fall from about 115,000 in 2000 to only 51,000 in 2020.

These projections indicate the importance of immigration for future population growth. International immigration is expected to rise from its recent levels of around 200,000 annually to close to 277,000 by the 2019/20. Allowing for a slight rise in out-migration, net immigration is forecast to rise from its current level of 140,000 to 208,000 by the 2019/20, thus becoming by far the dominant source of population growth.

3.2 SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: 2002/03 AND 2003/04

As indicated in the NIA for the first quarter of the year, the Canadian economy entered 2002 with a bang as GDP growth surged to an annualised 6 per cent rate, one of the fastest quarterly expansions in the last decade. The huge inventory liquidation in the final quarter of 2001 prompted a swift rebound in industrial production. Restored confidence boosted consumption and investment, while a parallel surge in U.S. growth wrenched the export sector out of recession. With the help of this good start, real GDP growth is expected to reach 4.1 per cent this fiscal year before decelerating somewhat to 3.8 per cent in 2003/04 (see Table 1).

Although production roared ahead in the first quarter of 2002, the gains were still not enough to meet red-hot demand. Consequently, inventories were again drawn down substantially, albeit at half the pace of the fourth quarter liquidation. This drove stock-to-sales ratios down below normal levels, and suggests that there will be further increases in production in the coming months first to stabilise and then to restore normal economy-wide inventory levels. This is expected to add significantly to near-term GDP growth.

The increase in production gave rise to a concurrent increase in employment. In the first five months of 2002, 237,000 jobs were created, most of them full-time, private sector positions. This pace is not expected to continue as the year wears on - in fact, employment will be quite stagnant in the latter half of the year - but the incomes generated by the jobs that were created will provide a solid platform for domestic demand growth this year.

Monetary policy has entered a tightening phase. Stimulative monetary conditions jump-started the economy in the first quarter beyond expectations and activity has not abated in the second quarter. However, the pause in GDP growth last year did not create enough surplus capacity in the economy to sustain growth at the current pace for very long. Mindful of this, and that first-quarter monetary conditions were consistent with growth well in excess of long-term potential, the Bank of Canada began immediately to withdraw the stimulus, electing to raise short-term interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the April, June and July policy announcement dates. The Bank is expected to continue increasing short-term rates by small increments this year and next until real rates are close to their long-term average. From trough to peak, the overnight lending rate is expected to rise by 300 basis points to 5 per cent by the end of 2003. These actions are expected to rein in economic growth in time to prevent prices from drifting significantly above the mid-point of the Bank's inflation target range.

The Bank of Canada's actions are also providing a boost to the Canadian dollar. Slower investment flows into the United States in recent weeks have weakened the U.S. dollar against most currencies, the Canadian dollar being no exception. Furthermore, the Bank of Canada's recent interest rate hikes have not been mirrored south of the border, resulting in a 75 basis-point premium on Canadian short-term paper. Consequently, the Canadian dollar has appreciated by 4 per cent since January. This, in conjunction with interest rate hikes, has been sufficient to remove one third of the monetary stimulus injected during 2001. The dollar is expected to continue gaining strength until the second half of 2003, when aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes narrow the Canada-U.S. spread on short term paper. The dollar is forecast to average U.S. $0.651 this fiscal year and U.S. $0.654 in 2003/04, compared with U.S. $0.639 in 2001/02.

In the meantime, basking in the glow of low interest rates, strong job creation and rising confidence, consumers are spending at a strong pace. Interest-sensitive goods have fared particularly well, fed in large part by significant housing sector activity. Rising rates are expected to prompt last-minute purchases of big-ticket items before the bloom starts to fade. Auto sales, boosted to unusually large dealer incentives that have reduced or even eliminated interest costs, are expected to weaken considerable in the latter half of the year, dampening total consumption. However, personal income is strong enough that sales will quickly return to a normal growth pattern. Consumer expenditures are expected to grow by 2.2 per cent in 2002/03 and 3.4 per cent in 2003/04, in real terms.

Residential construction is expected to be the fastest growing component of GDP this fiscal year with an increase of 14.7 per cent in real terms. Partly due to the rise in interest rates, the boom in residential construction will come to an end in 2003/04 when we project a slight decline of 0.4 per cent.

Business investment is still reeling from the growth pause in 2001. Weakness was aggravated by a sluggish energy sector in the crucial winter drilling months. However, the first quarter growth surge is expected to inject life into investment plans that were formulated with weaker growth assumptions, prompting an acceleration in near term aggregate investment activity. After shrinking by 3.5 per cent in 2001/02, real investment in machinery and equipment is forecast to grow by 0.7 per cent in 2002/03 before posting a respectable 8.5 per cent growth in 2003/04. The recovery in real business non-residential construction investment is expected to follow the same pattern with expected growth rates of 0.6 and 8.9 per cent respectively for 2002/03 and 2003/04.

Exports recovered in the first quarter following a string of declines, and are forecast to fare well as the year wears on. Although U.S. demand is forecast to slow in the middle months of the year, solid gains in the auto sector will keep total exports expanding. Stronger growth in the U.S. economy is expected to lift real export activity by 2.9 per cent this fiscal year and 4.7 per cent in 2003/04.

3.3 LONG-TERM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: 2004/05 TO 2019/20

Canadian economic performance is expected to ease over the long term and converge to its potential output growth rate. Canada's real GDP is forecast to post average annual growth of 2.4 per cent between 2004/05 and 2019/20. The principal factors behind this deceleration are the ageing of the population and its dampening effect on labour force growth, and a general slowing in the pace of technological change that will weaken the pace of investment spending.

Consumption patterns will change shape considerably over the long term, a direct result of the demographic shift that is underway. As the baby-boomer population bulge matures and the population ages, consumption will become even more oriented toward services. The average annual compound growth rate in consumer spending is forecast to be 2.2 per cent over the 2004/05 to 2019/20 period. Over the next five years, the baby-boomers (those born between 1947 and 1966) will be moving through their peak spending years, when the focus is on durable goods for themselves and their children, including continued strong spending on digital consumer products. However, between 2005/06 and 2015/16, this group will be entering a high-income, high-savings period as they prepare for retirement. Finally, over the last five years of the forecast period, the share of the population over 65, and especially the share over 75, will begin to pick up sharply, with a resultant drop in the savings rate and a sharp shift toward consumption of services, especially health care.

Other demographic trends are worth noting. After 2010, as the teenage population drops off precipitously when the children of the baby boom move into their mid-twenties, the market for products aimed at youth will shrink. However, the number of children aged 0 to 14 will begin to rise after 2015 as the grandchildren of the baby-boomers come onto the scene, reviving the market for children's products. Finally, overall consumption would be weaker were it not for an acceleration of real wage gains and structural labour supply shortages.

Over the longer term, housing starts are projected to fall modestly to levels closer to underlying demographic demand and track potential housing demand. After peaking at 181,100 units in 2002/03, housing starts are expected to slide to 150,500 units in 2012/13. However, starting in 2013/14, a temporary surge in new household formation will occur, fuelled by the baby-boom echo generation becoming old enough to form households. Housing starts are thus expected to rise again to a local peak of 158,200 units in 2015/16, before easing back to 151,800 units by 2019/20.

Stimulated by the need to replace ever more expensive labour, investment in machinery and equipment is projected to be the spending growth leader over the entire forecast horizon with an average annual compound growth of 4.6 per cent from 2004/05 to 2019/20. Annual growth of business non-residential construction investment is forecast to average 2.5 per cent between 2004/05 and 2019/20.

Over the 2004/05 to 2019/20 period, real export growth will further subside to a compound annual growth rate of 3.4 per cent as the exchange rate appreciates and U.S. growth slows in line with its long-term potential output growth rate.

See Table 1 and 1A in Appendix A for more detail concerning the long-term economic outlook for Canada.

TABLE 1
Key Economic Indicators - Canada


  2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 to
2019/20
GDP at market prices (billions 1997 $) 1,033.0 1,075.6 1,116.1 1,639.4
Annual percentage change 4.13.82.4
GDP at market prices ($ billions)1,093.71,153.01,217.32,355.2
Annual percentage change 5.45.64.2
CPI inflation rate2.22.42.12.1
Unemployment rate7.47.77.06.6
Prime rate5.04.66.47.1
Population (000s)31,10031,33931,58535,517

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

Note: For each indicator, the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change. The percentage changes in the final column are calculated as average annual compound growth rates over the period 2004/05 to 2019/20.

4 PUBLIC HEALTH CARE

This chapter presents the satellite model developed to project public health care spending out to 2019/20. The first section discusses the various data that were required along with the development of the model. The second section presents the public health care spending projections.

4.1 HEALTH EXPENDITURES MODEL

The historical data on public health care spending, on a Public Accounts basis, come from the provinces and territories as shown in their respective budget documents.

Health Canada is the source of data for public health expenditures by age and gender cohort. These data are broken down into eighteen age and gender cohorts. The amount of public money that was spent on health care for men (and women) aged 0 to 14, 15 to 24, etc. can be easily calculated by dividing these levels of spending by the number of people in the corresponding age and gender cohort.

An important component of the health expenditures model is a price index for health care spending. This index was estimated in consultation with Statistics Canada since a price index for public health expenditures does not currently exist. Public health care expenditures are primarily comprised of wages and salary costs. For this reason, a Health Price Index (HPI) was built using data on health and social services spending on salaries, as well as employment in the health and social services fields. The price index represents the average salary in health and social services. Observations over history revealed that the HPI moves in line with Canada's overall Consumer Price Index (CPI). Therefore, the forecast of HPI was estimated using a simple error-correction model tied to the Board's Canadian long-term forecast for the CPI.

All of the per capita health care spending equations were estimated in real terms as a function of a time trend to capture increases in per capita spending over and above inflation. The estimated trends capture both the change in the overall volume of health care services (level of access or utilisation) and the introduction of new technologies that lead to the provision of additional services. Using the regression results, real per capita spending is extrapolated over the forecast period. Trend estimates of real expenditures are converted back to current dollars simply by multiplying by the HPI.

Total provincial/territorial public health care spending in current dollars is obtained by multiplying the average cost per capita (by age and gender cohort) and the projected number of people in that age/cohort grouping in each year. The overall total figure is then obtained by adding up the nominal dollar amount spent for each of the 18 age/gender cohorts.

4.2 SPENDING PROJECTIONS

The model results suggest that the ageing population and rising costs combine to increase total provincial and territorial nominal public health spending from $63.5 billion in 2000/01 to $166.5 billion in 2019/20. This represents an average annual compound growth of 5.2 per cent over the forecast period. Of this growth, 2.1 percentage points per year can be attributed to inflation, 1.4 percentage points are attributed to real increases in the volume of services provided and 1.7 percentage points are attributed to demographics. The 1.7 percentage-point contribution attributed to demographic movements can be broken down in terms of a 1.0 percentage-point contribution from an ageing population and a 0.7 percentage-point contribution from population growth.

Two critical factors will contribute to the rise in overall provincial and territorial health care expenditures: the rise in the number of seniors, and the fact that more than 50 per cent of a person's lifetime health care expenditures occur after the age of 65. As people age, their health care consumption patterns become more expensive. In 2000/01, nominal per capita health expenditures stood at $2,063 - it is expected that this figure will more than double to reach $4,688 by 2019/20. For people aged 65 and over, the per capita cost will increase from $7,740 in 2000/01 to $15,691 in 2019/20 (see Table 4 in Appendix A for more detail).

Not unexpectedly, the most important group to focus on is the baby boomers, as they constitute a large share of the overall population. Over the next twenty years, ageing baby boomers will boost the share of the older age cohorts in the total population. By the end of the forecast period, baby boomers will fall between the ages of 55 and 74. Individuals over the age of 65 will make up 17.4 per cent of the Canadian population by 2019/20, compared to only 12.5 per cent in 2000/01 (see Table 6 in Appendix A for more detail).

Another interesting point to keep in mind is that this study covers only the period to 2019/20. But the pressure on health care costs may be even greater after the year 2020. Indeed, in 2020, baby boomers will still not be at the top of the age pyramid as they will still be aged under 74 (most of them will not even have reached the age of 65). They will then gradually enter the more costly age groups in terms of health care. Perhaps the most dramatic increases in health care costs will occur after the current forecast period ends.

5 PUBLIC EDUCATION

The basic structure of the education spending model rests on the same principles as those used for the health care model. The satellite model is used to project the cost of public education by age cohort over time. This allows the effect of demographic changes on education spending to be taken into account.

5.1 EDUCATION EXPENDITURES MODEL

The historical data on public education spending, on a Public Accounts basis, were drawn from provincial/territorial government budget documents. Data on education spending and enrolment numbers for different levels of education were provided by Statistics Canada.

The first step consists in calculating historical education spending levels on a per student basis. Note that the CPI was used to generate the spending data in real terms. Trend equations were developed for real expenditures per student for three levels: school boards, colleges, and universities. Once the education spending forecasts per student have been obtained, they are multiplied by the corresponding forecast enrolment levels taken from the Board's demographic projections. It is important to note that enrolment rates were assumed to remain constant over the forecast period.

5.2 SPENDING PROJECTIONS

Our projections for education are markedly different from those for health care. This is because of the projected steady decline of 0.3 per cent per year, on average, in the enrolment levels over the forecast period.

From $38.1 billion recorded in 2000/01, public education expenditures are forecast to reach $69.6 billion in 2019/20, which translates into an average annual compound increase of 3.2 per cent due to the partial offset originating from the steady decline in the student population (see Table 5 in Appendix A for more detail).

On a per student basis, current dollar public education expenditures are forecast to increase, on average, by 3.3 per cent per year until 2019/20. With this pace of growth, the average cost per student of $5,934 in 2000/01 will rise to $11,042 in 2019/20. The fastest increase in the cost per student over the forecast period will come from the universities (up 3.6 per cent per year), followed by school boards (3.3 per cent) and colleges (3.0 per cent).

6 FISCAL PROSPECTS

This first section of this chapter presents the fiscal prospects facing the federal government over the next twenty years while the second section examines the projected fiscal situation of the provinces and territories.

The assumptions used to generate the federal government revenue components are summarised in Exhibit 1 while those underlying the expenditure scenario are presented in Exhibit 2. Similarly, the aggregate provincial/territorial revenue and expenditure components (other than public health care and education) are reviewed in Exhibits 3 and 4 respectively.

6.1 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

Simulation results show that the federal government's overall financial position will improve considerably over the next twenty years. Indeed, federal surpluses are forecast to grow rapidly, reaching $85.5 billion by 2019/20 (see Chart 1). Assuming that budgetary surpluses in any fiscal year must be used exclusively for debt reduction, the 2000/01 level of $589.2 billion of interest-bearing debt will fall to $52.7 billion by 2019/20 (see Chart 2). The decline in public debt charges, which are expected to fall from $42.1 billion to $11.2 billion between 2000/01 and 2019/20, is largely responsible for the growing budgetary surplus and the virtual elimination of interest-bearing debt at the federal level. This is known as the "virtuous circle" of debt reduction where surpluses increase over time as debt is reduced thus reducing interest costs.

The reduction in debt-servicing charges stems from the federal government's budgetary surpluses which are used to reduce its debt each year. As shown in Table 2, budgetary expenditures are expected to increase, on average, by 2.5 per cent per year over the forecast period, while budgetary revenues will post an average annual compound growth of 3.5 per cent. Excluding debt-servicing charges, program spending at the federal level is forecast to increase on average by 3.9 per cent per year.

Looking at the post-CHST legislated payment period 2006/07 to 2019/20, one can see in Table 2 that growth in federal program spending is forecast to decelerate to 3.6 per cent compared with an average annual growth of 4.6 per cent over the medium term. In fact, with the exception of elderly benefits, all federal program spending components are forecast to increase at a slower pace over the longer term. With budgetary revenues anticipated to grow by 4.1 per cent per year over the same period, the operating surplus at the federal level will more than double in size, passing from $46.3 billion in 2005/06 to $96.7 billion in 2019/20. The growing operating surplus is the main reason behind the reimbursement of the debt and the corresponding interest cost reductions. See Table 2, 2A and 2B in Appendix A for more detail concerning the fiscal prospects for the federal government.

Exhibit 1

Assumptions used to generate federal government revenues

1. Personal income taxes

These revenues are derived from the CBoC's forecasting model. The forecast incorporates the measures cited in the September 2000 Economic Statement and Budget Update which increase credits for the disabled, education and the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) deduction for the self-employed. Tax tables have been indexed and adjusted in 2004 to reflect the targets established in the Economic Statement and Budget Update. The new rules governing the taxation of capital gains have also been taken into account. The taxable portion of capital gains decreased from 75 per cent to two-thirds in the 2000 Budget and to 50 per cent in the Economic Statement and Budget Update.

2. Corporate income taxes

The measures included in the latest budgets and the Economic Statement and Budget Update have been incorporated into the medium-term scenario and rates have been kept constant for the remainder of the period.

3. Employment insurance contributions

The contribution rate decreases to $1.70 per $100 of insurable earnings in 2007. The rate has subsequently been held constant and the ceiling on eligible revenues has been raised in line with growth in average wages once the latter have reached $39,000.

4. Excise taxes and duties

No change in indirect ad valorem taxes has been introduced; the GST collections thus increase at the same pace as nominal taxable consumption. Import duties decrease slightly in real terms. The value of taxes on fuel, tobacco and alcoholic beverages has been maintained in real terms. Fuel tax revenue increases at the same pace as inflation plus population growth starting in 2006/07. For previous years, the CBoC medium-term forecasts were used. As for other taxes and excise taxes, they reflect the combined rate of increase of the population 15 years of age and over and inflation.

5. Non-fiscal revenues

Investment revenues are based on an implicit rate of investment revenues in relation to the Government of Canada's financial assets. This implicit rate moves in line with the implicit interest rate on the debt. Other government revenues grow at the same pace as inflation and thus remain stable in real terms.



Exhibit 2

Assumptions used to generate federal government expenditures

1. Elderly benefits

These comprise two components generated from the CBoC's macroeconomic model. First, Old Age Security benefits are aligned with demographic movements and inflation. Second, total Guaranteed Income Supplement benefits increase in line with inflation throughout the forecast period.

2. Employment Insurance benefits

The general rules of the EI plan have been maintained, including recent increases in plan benefits. Starting in 2005/06, growth in benefits reflects the increase in the ceiling on pensionable earnings.

3. Other transfers to individuals

These are made up solely of the 2000/01 heating cost allowance, have been reduced to zero for the entire forecast period, as they are deemed to be exceptional and non-recurring.

4. Canada Health and Social Transfer

Federal transfers to the provinces and territories under the CHST program are those stated in the last federal budget for the period 2001/02 to 2005/06. For the subsequent period, growth in the CHST has been adjusted in order to maintain a constant level of real per-capita transfers, defined by population growth plus inflation. It should be noted that current legislation makes no provision for any increase in 2006/07 and later years. The assumption of a fixed real per-capita transfer most closely resembles the status quo with respect to current budgetary policy.

5. Equalization and Territorial Formula Financing

Starting in 2002/03, growth in payments is tied to growth in nominal GDP, according to the relationship observed between these two variables over history. It is important to note that the Formula Financing transfers made to the three territories are included in the definition of Equalization payments used for this study. The most recent budget estimates have been used for 2001/02.

6. Alternative Payments for Standing Programs

Payments are aligned with increases in federal personal income tax collections in Quebec.

7. Other transfers and subsidies to other governments

This item has been reduced to zero for the entire forecast period. These amounts have been deemed exceptional and non-recurring (Medical Equipment Trusts).

8. Direct program spending

This includes expenditures related to Crown corporations, Defence, Indian and Northern Affairs Canada, and all other program spending. Growth in such spending is determined by two factors, i.e. growth in nominal GDP and the growth of population and inflation combined. The growth rate used to project direct program spending is the mean of these two rates. Certain adjustments have been made to take into account recent budget announcements and the latest budget estimates for 2001/02.

9. Public debt charges

These are based on the federal government's interest-bearing debt, which includes Canada Savings Bonds, Treasury bills, marketable bonds and pension and retirement plan liabilities. The implicit interest rate calculated for 2001/02 changes at the same pace as the interest rates determined by the CBoC's long-term forecasts. The most recent budget estimates have been used for 2001/02.



Chart 1

Federal government budgetary balance

($ billions)

Bar chart showing the federal government budgetary balance starting in 2001-2002 and projecting through to 2019-2020.

Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Finance Canada



Chart 2

Federal government interest-bearing debt

($ billions)

Bar chart showing the federal government interest-bearing debt from 2001-2002 and in decreasing projections through to 2019-2020.

Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Finance Canada



Chart 3

Federal government interest-bearing debt as a share of GDP

(per cent)

Bar chart showing the federal government interest-bearing debt as a share of GDP from 2001-2002  and in decreasing projections through to 2019-2020.

Source: The Conference Board of Canada



TABLE 2
Federal government fiscal prospects
($ millions)
 2000/012001/02
to
2005/06
2006/07
to
2019/20
2001/02
to
2019/20
Budgetary revenues178,590195,967341,694 
Annual percentage change 1.94.13.5
Budgetary expenditures161,442191,553256,239 
Annual percentage change 3.52.12.5
Program spending119,348149,621244,991
Annual percentage change 4.63.63.9
Elderly benefits24,25628,94652,915
Annual percentage change 3.64.44.2
Employment insurance benefits11,44415,64325,226
Annual percentage change 6.53.54.2
Transfers to provinces/territories24,72432,61850,191
Annual percentage change 5.73.13.8
Other program spending58,92472,414116,659
Annual percentage change 4.23.53.7
Public debt charges42,09441,93211,248
Annual percentage change -0.0-9.0-6.7
Budgetary balance17,1484,41485,455
Interest bearing debt589,232571,31352,728 

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Finance Canada.

Note: Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level at the end of the period and the second line, the percentage change calculated as the average annual compound growth rates over the period in consideration.

6.2 TOTAL PROVINCIAL/TERRITORIAL GOVERNMENT

The fiscal prospects at the provincial/territorial level are more precarious. From the $12.0 billion surplus recorded in 2000/01, the total provincial/territorial government balance is projected to remain negative throughout the forecast period. The deficit will steadily increase to reach $12.3 billion in 2019/20 (see Chart 4).

Due to the projected 20-year string of deficits, the stock of debt at the provincial/territorial level will increase from $251.5 billion in 2000/01 to $386.9 billion in 2019/20 (see Chart 5). In 2000/01, the total provincial/territorial debt represented 23.3 per cent of Canada's GDP. As nominal GDP is expected to grow faster, this debt-to-GDP ratio will be reduced to 16.4 per cent (see Chart 6). Total provincial/territorial debt will increase on a per capita basis from $8,166 in 2000/01 to $10,894 in 2019/20.

Provincial and territorial government revenues are comprised mainly of direct and indirect taxes and transfer payments from the federal government. The taxes collected include personal and corporate income taxes, and indirect taxes such as provincial sales taxes. It is assumed for the purpose of this study that only those tax changes that have already been announced in past budget documents will be included in the outlook.

The federal government provides cash transfers to the provinces and territories for several reasons, one being to assist them in financing health care services. Funds are provided through the Canada Health and Social Transfer (CHST), which supports provincial/territorial programs in the areas of health, postsecondary education and social services. The amounts of the CHST presented in the last federal budget for the period 2001/02 to 2005/06 have been incorporated into this study's forecast. Using these federal budget estimates, growth in CHST payments will amount to 2.8 per cent on average.

Current legislation does not contain any mechanism for increasing CHST transfers from 2006/07 onwards. For the purposes of this study, it was assumed that the real per capital levels of CHST transfers for the year 2005/06 will be maintained over the remainder of the forecast period. As a result, CHST payments rise in line with population growth and the rate of inflation between 2006/07 and 2019/20.

As shown in Table 3, total provincial/territorial budgetary revenues are expected to grow on average by 3.4 per cent per year between 2000/01 and 2019/20. They include transfers from the federal government such as the CHST and Equalization payments. It is important to compare public health care expenditures to budgetary revenues over time (both are measured in current dollar terms). Indeed, this share gives a good indication of both the financial affordability and the long-term sustainability of provincial and territorial health care systems. As a share of total budgetary revenues, health expenditures are projected to increase from 32.4 per cent in 2000/01 to 44.8 per cent in 2019/20 (see Chart 7). This represents an increase of 12.4 percentage points. It also means that close to 45 cents of every tax and federal transfer dollar obtained by provincial and territorial governments will be allocated towards public health care in 2019/20.

The proportion is much smaller for education spending. Indeed, the provinces and territories, which spent 19.5 per cent of their budgetary revenues on education in 2000/01, will see this share declining to 18.8 per cent in 2019/20 (see Chart 8).

Overall, total provincial/territorial budgetary expenditures are expected to increase by 4.0 per cent per year on average between 2000/01 and 2019/20, which is significantly faster than the average annual rate of growth of 3.4 per cent projected in total budgetary revenues.

Growth in total program spending (excluding debt-servicing charges) is expected to average 4.1 per cent per year between 2000/01 and 2019/20. This growth rate is 0.7 percentage points higher than the pace of increase in budgetary revenues, year after year for two decades.

Public debt charges are expected to rise from $22.4 billion in 2000/01 to $39.4 billion by 2019/20 in line with the projected increase in the collective net debt of the provincial/territorial government.

See Table 3 and 3A in Appendix A for more detail concerning the fiscal prospects for the provincial/territorial government.



Chart 4

Provincial/territorial government budgetary balance

($ billions)

Bar chart showing provincial and territorial governments budgetary balances from 2001-2002 with projections through to 2019-2020.

Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Provincial/territorial budget documents



Chart 5

Provincial/territorial government net debt

($ billions)

Bar chart showing provincial and territorial government levels of net debt from 2001-2002 with projections through to 2019-2020.

Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Provincial/territorial budget documents



Chart 6

Provincial/territorial government net debt as a share of GDP

(per cent)

Bar chart showing provincial and territorial government levels of net debt as a share of GDP from 2001-2002 with projections through to 2019-2020

Source: The Conference Board of Canada



Chart 7

Public health expenditures as a share of provincial/territorial budgetary revenues

(per cent)

Bar chart showing public health expenditures as a share of the provincial and territorial budgetary revenues for 2001-2002 with projections through to 2019-2020.

Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Provincial/territorial budget documents



Chart 8

Public education expenditures as a share of provincial/territorial budgetary revenues

(per cent)

Bar chart showing public education expenditures as a share of the provincial and territorial budgetary revenues for 2001-2002 with projections through to 2019-2020.

Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Provincial/territorial budget documents



Exhibit 3

Assumptions used to generate provincial/territorial government revenues

1. Personal income taxes

Personal income tax data are taken from the CBoC's economic forecasts. They essentially reflect growth in personal income and take into account tax cuts announced in recent provincial/territorial budgets. The most recent budget estimates have been used for 2001/02.

2. Corporate taxes

Corporate tax collections grow at the same rate as corporate profits, which are taken from the CBoC's long-term economic forecasts. Cuts announced in recent budgets have also been taken into account. The most recent budget estimates have been used for 2001/02.

3. Retail sales tax

Retail sales tax revenues grow in line with consumption and take into account tax changes announced in recent budgets. The most recent budget estimates have been used for 2001/02.

4. Other own-source revenues

These include a wide range of other levies and charges, such as fuel taxes, natural resource revenues, revenues from sales of goods and services, investment income, etc. Growth in such revenues is determined by two factors, i.e. growth in nominal GDP and the growth of population and inflation combined. The growth rate used to project other own-source revenues is the mean of these two rates. The most recent budget estimates have been used for 2001/02.

5. Equalization, CHST, Alternative Payments for Standing Programs and other transfers to other governments

See Exhibit 2 on federal government expenditures.

6. Other transfers from the federal government

These represent transfers that are not recorded as direct transfers to other levels of government by the federal government, but which are recorded as transfers in the Public Accounts of the provincial and territorial governments. The growth rate for other federal transfers was determined by the growth rate of federal government direct program spending. It also takes into account timing differences over the medium term between the transfer of certain revenues by the federal government and their receipt by the provincial and territorial governments. The most recent budget estimates have been used for 2001/02.



Exhibit 4

Assumptions used to generate provincial/territorial government expenditures

1. Health care spending

Projections for health care spending are determined by the health expenditures model described earlier. The most recent budget estimates have been used for 2001/02.

2. Education spending

Projections for education spending are determined by the education expenditures model described earlier. The most recent budget estimates have been used for 2001/02.

3. Social services

This includes all provincial and territorial government spending on social services excluding health and education. Starting in 2002/03, spending is in line with population growth and inflation in order to maintain a constant level of real per capita services. The most recent budget estimates have been used for 2001/02.

4. Other program spending

This category covers all other program spending made by the provincial and territorial governments and includes that on transportation, industrial development, public security and housing. Growth in such spending is determined by two factors, growth in nominal GDP and the growth of population and inflation combined. The growth rate used to project direct program spending is the mean of these two rates. Certain adjustments have been made to take into account the latest budget announcements and the most recent budget estimates have been used for 2001/02.

5. Debt service charges

Debt service charges are calculated according to the implicit interest rate on the combined net debt of the provincial and territorial governments for 2001/02. This rate is then adjusted so that changes in it are fully aligned with changes in the implicit rate on the federal government's debt. The most recent budget estimates have been used for 2001/02.



TABLE 3
Total provincial/territorial fiscal prospects
($ millions)
 2000/012001/02
to
2005/06
2006/07
to
2019/20
2001/02
to
2019/20
Total budgetary revenues195,871219,487371,250 
Annual percentage change 2.33.83.4
Own-source revenues166,595181,018312,175 
Annual percentage change 1.74.03.4
Federal transfers29,27538,47059,075 
Annual percentage change 5.63.13.8
Total budgetary expenditures182,126223,134383,521 
Annual percentage change 4.13.94.0
Total program spending159,682198,996344,085 
Annual percentage change 4.54.04.1
Health63,53382,960166,487 
Annual percentage change 5.55.15.2
Education38,14446,86669,632 
Annual percentage change 4.22.93.2
Other program spending58,00569,171107,966 
Annual percentage change 3.63.23.3
Public debt charges22,44424,13739,436 
Annual percentage change 1.53.63.0
Budgetary balance12,013-3,646-12,270 
Net debt251,503259,930386,913 

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Provincial/territorial governments' Public Accounts.

Note: Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level at the end of the period and the second line, the percentage change calculated as the average annual compound growth rates over the period in consideration.

7 CONCLUSION

Clearly, in light of the study results shown in Table 4, the balance between revenue and spending is much more precarious for the provinces and territories than it is for the federal government. While the federal government is set to eliminate its interest-bearing debt through ever-greater surpluses reaching almost $85.5 billion by 2019/20, the provinces and territories will remain in deficit throughout the forecast period (see Chart 9). As a result, the aggregate provincial/territorial net debt will rise to $386.9 billion, an increase of close to 54 per cent compared with its $251.5 billion level in 2000/01. The debt-servicing charges that the provinces and territories will have to bear are projected to be 3.5 times those borne by the federal government by 2019/20.

Collectively, the provinces and territories will see their program spending growing faster than their budgetary revenues over the forecast period. They will face growing spending pressures in the health care area, where spending is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.2 per cent, much faster than the 3.4 per cent average rate in budgetary revenues. This forecast calls for slower growth in education spending due to the decline in the student population but this will not offset the projected increase in health care costs.

With the current fiscal regimes in place, the vertical fiscal imbalance will widen in the future, as only the federal government has the financial capacity to pay down its debt or implement new initiatives such as tax cuts and new discretionary program spending. In contrast, the provinces and territories will have no leeway to implement new policy initiatives over the next two decades. They will neither be able to increase spending nor cut taxes without worsening their financial situation.



TABLE 4
Comparison of Financial Prospects
(Average annual compound growth between 2000/01 and 2019/20)
 FederalProvincial/Territorial
Revenues
- Own-source revenues3.53.4
- Federal transfersN/A3.8
- Total3.53.4

Expenditures
- Program spending3.94.1
- Debt charges-6.73.0
- Total2.54.0

Budgetary balance ($ millions)
- 2000/0117,14812,013
- 2019/2085,455-12,270

Public Debt ($ millions)1
- 2000/01589,232251,503
- 2019/2052,728386,913

Public Debt (as a share of GDP)1
- 2000/0154.523.3
- 2019/202.216.4

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Federal and provincial/territorial governments' Public Accounts.

1 Interest-bearing debt in the case of the federal government and net debt for the provinces and territories.



Chart 9

Federal and provincial/territorial government budgetary balances

($ billions)

Bar chart showing the federal and provincial and territorial government budgetary balances from 2001-2002 with projections through to 2019-2020.

Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Federal and provincial/territorial budget documents



APPENDIX A

TABLE 1
Key Economic Indicators - Canada
1997-981998-991999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09

GDP at market prices ($ millions 1997)
892 948929 315980 8051 018 9341 033 0201 075 5561 116 0531 146 5831 175 0281 204 7881 237 5831 267 784
Annual percentage change4,54,15,53,91,44,13,82,72,52,52,72,4
GDP892 502925 5231 002 4641 080 9301 093 6831 152 9851 217 3131 269 9341 321 1741 376 9021 438 7331 499 033
Annual percentage change5,13,78,37,81,25,45,64,34,04,24,54,2
Implicit price deflator0,9990,9961,0221,0611,0591,0721,0911,1081,1241,1431,1621,182
Annual percentage change0,6-0,42,63,8-0,21,21,71,51,51,61,71,7
Consumer price index (1997 = 1.000)1,0781,0891,1121,1431,1691,1971,2221,2461,2671,2921,3181,344
Annual percentage change1,40,92,22,82,22,42,12,01,71,92,02,0
Real per capita GDP ($)29 74830 69732 12833 08233 21734 32035 33436 02336 63937 28738 01938 661
Annual percentage change0,03,24,73,00,43,33,01,91,71,82,01,7
US - GDP at market prices (billions of 1997 dollars)8 2548 5938 9499 2829 3719 63910 02010 32410 65911 02111 33611 648
Annual percentage change4,54,14,13,71,02,93,93,03,23,42,92,7
Personal income ($ millions)724 219755 839796 970851 081877 048909 525952 933993 9461 035 2201 079 6741 125 8871 170 550
Annual percentage change4,54,45,46,83,13,74,84,34,24,34,34,0
Personal disposable income ($ millions)551 791574 264606 792647 340670 462695 641728 506762 460794 150827 506862 356895 472
Annual percentage change3,84,15,76,73,63,84,74,74,24,24,23,8
Population (000s)30 01730 27430 52830 80031 10031 33931 58531 82932 07032 31132 55232 792
Annual percentage change1,00,90,80,91,00,80,80,80,80,80,70,7
Total employment (000s)13 86714 24014 64114 97015 11315 37215 65015 85016 04216 25216 48716 666
Annual percentage change2,62,72,82,21,01,71,81,31,21,31,41,1
Unemployment rate (per cent)8,98,17,36,97,47,77,07,07,07,06,96,9
Prime rate5,356,716,447,354,984,616,386,756,756,746,706,70
Exchange rate US/Canada0,7130,6650,6800,6650,6390,6510,6540,6480,6530,6590,6630,666
Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change.
Shaded areas represent forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.


TABLE 1
Key Economic Indicators - Canada
2009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-20

GDP at market prices ($ millions 1997)
1 298 1461 328 2521 359 9891 393 1731 427 9541 461 8531 495 9291 530 0211 563 8141 600 7261 639 412
Annual percentage change2,42,32,42,42,52,42,32,32,22,42,4
GDP 1 560 7841 622 9091 688 3601 757 8551 833 1821 912 1091 994 5492 080 2932 166 7572 258 7872 355 206
Annual percentage change4,14,04,04,14,34,34,34,34,24,24,3
Implicit price deflator1,2021,2221,2411,2621,2841,3081,3331,3601,3861,4111,437
Annual percentage change1,71,61,61,61,71,91,92,01,91,81,8
Consumer price index (1997 = 1.000)1,3691,3941,4211,4481,4771,5081,5401,5721,6041,6381,672
Annual percentage change1,91,81,91,92,02,12,12,12,12,12,1
Real per capita GDP ($)39 29839 91840 57741 26741 99342 68043 36044 02844 67545 39846 158
Annual percentage change1,61,61,61,71,81,61,61,51,51,61,7
US - GDP at market prices (billions of 1997 dollars)11 96112 28512 61412 93913 26013 58513 91014 24014 56614 88615 207
Annual percentage change2,72,72,72,62,52,42,42,42,32,22,2
Personal income ($ millions)1 213 4781 257 2191 304 7791 355 7681 410 8571 468 9431 526 6341 585 3001 647 0671 711 1251 777 911
Annual percentage change3,73,63,83,94,14,13,93,83,93,93,9
Personal disposable income ($ millions)927 418959 831995 0531 032 5661 073 1151 115 8051 157 9001 200 7091 245 6651 292 1021 340 421
Annual percentage change3,63,53,73,83,94,03,83,73,73,73,7
Population (000s)33 03333 27433 51633 76034 00534 25234 50134 75135 00535 26035 517
Annual percentage change0,70,70,70,70,70,70,70,70,70,70,7
Total employment (000s)16 79916 90917 04117 16917 30317 44217 55617 65717 77117 88317 995
Annual percentage change0,80,70,80,80,80,80,70,60,60,60,6
Unemployment rate (per cent)6,96,86,86,86,86,76,76,76,66,66,6
Prime rate6,706,837,017,137,137,137,137,137,137,137,13
Exchange rate US/Canada0,6700,6740,6870,7020,7180,7240,7270,7320,7350,7390,743
Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change.
Shaded areas represent forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.


TABLE 1A
Gross Domestic Product, Expenditure Based - Canada

($ millions 1997)
1997-981998-991999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09

GDP at market prices ($ millions 1997)
892 948929 315980 8051 018 9341 033 0201 075 5561 116 0531 146 5831 175 0281 204 7881 237 5831 267 784
Annual percentage change4,54,15,53,91,44,13,82,72,52,52,72,4
Consumer expenditures514 453529 369550 400570 414582 813595 540615 781633 999653 061671 680689 775705 236
Annual percentage change4,42,94,03,62,22,23,43,03,02,92,72,2
Net government spending (goods and services)172 877177 774181 544186 319192 198196 799200 898204 742208 111211 030213 650216 486
Annual percentage change-0,12,82,12,63,22,42,11,91,61,41,21,3
Gross fixed capital formation177 627181 107197 489206 592209 983219 765232 326241 733247 368254 663265 462275 081
Annual percentage change13,22,09,04,61,64,75,74,02,32,94,23,6
Government19 96720 43322 94323 52926 54827 69229 14329 10629 16630 30432 00633 790
Annual percentage change-2,42,312,32,612,84,35,2-0,10,23,95,65,6
Business157 660160 680174 565183 079183 463192 089203 198212 571218 105224 282233 417241 318
Annual percentage change15,61,98,64,90,24,75,84,62,62,84,13,4
Residential construction43 50541 96644 98946 17149 74457 05756 82556 57057 48958 35458 05257 498
Annual percentage change4,4-3,57,22,67,714,7-0,4-0,41,61,5-0,5-1,0
Non-residential construction44 53543 90145 72748 00647 60847 90352 14454 33754 29253 86356 10857 940
Annual percentage change14,6-1,44,25,0-0,80,68,94,2-0,1-0,84,23,3
Machinery and equipment69 60874 81283 94089 09585 94986 54693 943101 895106 973113 369121 159128 431
Annual percentage change24,57,512,26,1-3,50,78,58,55,06,06,96,0
Final domestic demand864 945888 232929 336963 178984 8861 011 8791 048 5671 079 8761 107 9131 136 6051 167 7191 195 243
Annual percentage change5,22,74,63,62,32,73,63,02,62,62,72,4
Exports356 191390 015427 855451 101432 068444 516465 387484 548505 168526 711548 904569 782
Annual percentage change8,39,59,75,4-4,22,94,74,14,34,34,23,8
Imports338 645351 578385 584402 835377 216382 586403 759424 120444 173464 365484 385502 477
Annual percentage change13,53,89,74,5-6,41,45,55,04,74,54,33,7
Net exports17 54638 43742 27248 26654 85261 93061 62760 42960 99562 34564 51967 305
Annual percentage change-42,1119,110,014,213,612,9-0,5-1,90,92,23,54,3
Final demand881 814918 055961 3331 001 4151 026 6151 059 0471 095 3851 125 5671 153 9831 183 6861 216 4621 246 129
Annual percentage change3,24,14,74,22,53,23,42,82,52,62,82,4
Value of physical change in inventories10 5672 8289 1907 193-5 3061 9954 8115 4905 6625 7925 8806 044
Residual error-93635691 013-400-1 070-7800000
Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change.
Shaded areas represent forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.


TABLE 1A
Gross Domestic Product, Expenditure Based - Canada

($ millions 1997)
2009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-20

GDP at market prices ($ millions 1997)
1 298 1461 328 2521 359 9891 393 1731 427 9541 461 8531 495 9291 530 0211 563 8141 600 7261 639 412
Annual percentage change2,42,32,42,42,52,42,32,32,22,42,4
Consumer expenditures717 963730 095743 616758 049773 653790 272806 091822 356839 743857 610877 091
Annual percentage change1,81,71,91,92,12,12,02,02,12,12,3
Net government spending (goods and services)220 043224 043228 332232 500235 916238 866241 955245 038248 117251 464255 249
Annual percentage change1,61,81,91,81,51,31,31,31,31,31,5
Gross fixed capital formation284 517293 686302 129310 348319 761329 543340 217351 156360 193369 871381 123
Annual percentage change3,43,22,92,73,03,13,23,22,62,73,0
Government35 69237 39438 66940 02841 31042 43743 58944 70545 85447 07648 398
Annual percentage change5,64,83,43,53,22,72,72,62,62,72,8
Business248 942256 486263 687270 600278 750287 390296 881306 657314 551323 009332 922
Annual percentage change3,23,02,82,63,03,13,33,32,62,73,1
Residential construction57 19857 26157 50858 00458 61859 47460 57161 08861 10661 36962 123
Annual percentage change-0,50,10,40,91,11,51,80,90,00,41,2
Non-residential construction59 70761 27362 74064 06566 14968 12670 20972 84574 84876 85879 204
Annual percentage change3,02,62,42,13,33,03,13,82,72,73,1
Machinery and equipment135 181141 691147 744153 380159 244165 579172 490179 675186 241193 176200 718
Annual percentage change5,34,84,33,83,84,04,24,23,73,73,9
Final domestic demand1 220 5401 245 4211 271 3361 297 8171 325 6981 354 3841 383 1641 412 5871 441 4511 471 6261 505 252
Annual percentage change2,12,02,12,12,12,22,12,12,02,12,3
Exports591 238611 619632 412654 023676 085696 448716 717736 458756 640778 172798 469
Annual percentage change3,83,43,43,43,43,02,92,82,72,82,6
Imports518 915534 157549 249564 337579 708594 986610 106625 298640 671655 779671 277
Annual percentage change3,32,92,82,72,72,62,52,52,52,42,4
Net exports72 32377 46283 16389 68696 376101 462106 611111 160115 970122 392127 192
Annual percentage change7,57,17,47,87,55,35,14,34,35,53,9
Final demand1 275 3141 304 1391 334 3841 365 7851 398 6971 431 2131 463 8621 496 6981 529 1371 564 0431 601 211
Annual percentage change2,32,32,32,42,42,32,32,22,22,32,4
Value of physical change in inventories6 2676 4876 6786 8557 0337 2037 3767 5537 7357 9468 176
Residual error00000000000
Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change.
Shaded areas represent forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.


TABLE 2
Federal Government Revenues

($ millions)
1997-981998-991999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09
Budgetary revenues153 162155 671165 708178 590174 000178 647185 635189 547195 967203 606211 678219 934
Annual percentage change8,71,66,47,8-2,62,73,92,13,43,94,03,9
Income tax96 25796 964106 047114 829110 600113 674118 880121 350126 068131 567137 592143 335
Annual percentage change15,80,79,48,3-3,72,84,62,13,94,44,64,2
Personal income taxes70 78772 48879 37882 30580 30080 85884 90487 73291 95196 701101 496106 072
Annual percentage change11,92,49,53,7-2,40,75,03,34,85,25,04,5
Corporate income taxes22 49621 57523 17028 21226 30028 75129 79729 39729 87130 57631 66132 690
Annual percentage change32,2-4,17,421,8-6,89,33,6-1,31,62,43,63,2
Other2 9742 9013 4994 3124 0004 0654 1794 2224 2474 2904 4344 573
Annual percentage change4,5-2,520,623,2-7,21,62,81,00,61,03,43,1
Employment insurance revenues18 80219 36318 51218 73117 80017 63317 19916 68116 20616 15616 26516 976
Annual percentage change-5,13,0-4,41,2-5,0-0,9-2,5-3,0-2,8-0,30,74,4
Excise taxes and duties30 86031 39932 88636 11637 20039 31341 07642 70544 47046 25247 96049 517
Annual percentage change6,11,74,79,83,05,74,54,04,14,03,73,2
Goods and services tax19 46120 68422 79024 99025 70027 20128 50329 77831 20932 67834 07835 330
Annual percentage change7,66,310,29,72,85,84,84,54,84,74,33,7
Custom import duties2 7662 3592 1052 8072 7862 9923 0993 1803 2683 3633 3883 393
Annual percentage change3,4-14,7-10,833,3-0,77,43,62,62,82,90,70,2
Other excise taxes and duties8 6338 3567 9918 3198 7149 1219 4759 7479 99310 21110 49410 794
Annual percentage change3,5-3,2-4,44,14,74,73,92,92,52,22,82,9
Non-fiscal revenues7 2437 9458 2638 9148 4008 0278 4808 8119 2239 6309 86210 106
Annual percentage change-18,09,74,07,9-5,8-4,45,73,94,74,42,42,5
Investment revenues4 4274 9915 2516 1445 7835 3475 7446 0206 3856 7376 9117 097
Annual percentage change5,212,75,217,0-5,9-7,67,44,86,15,52,62,7
Other non-fiscal revenues2 8162 9543 0122 7702 6172 6802 7362 7912 8382 8932 9513 009
Annual percentage change-394,92,0-8,0-5,52,42,12,01,71,92,02,0
Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change.
Shaded areas represent forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Department of Finance Canada.


TABLE 2
Federal Government Revenues

($ millions)
2009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-20
Budgetary revenues228 249236 621245 844256 109267 137278 625290 474302 619314 787327 831341 694
Annual percentage change3,83,73,94,24,34,34,34,24,04,14,2
Income tax149 302155 338161 958169 378177 380185 694194 364203 265212 079221 626231 716
Annual percentage change4,24,04,34,64,74,74,74,64,34,54,6
Personal income taxes110 480115 018120 053125 632131 616137 842144 071150 365156 980163 893171 135
Annual percentage change4,24,14,44,64,84,74,54,44,44,44,4
Corporate income taxes34 12535 49636 94838 66140 54842 50844 82347 31149 40451 93254 673
Annual percentage change4,44,04,14,64,94,85,45,64,45,15,3
Other4 6974 8254 9575 0865 2165 3445 4705 5895 6965 8015 909
Annual percentage change2,72,72,72,62,62,52,42,21,91,91,9
Employment insurance revenues17 61918 22818 88319 56320 28521 07621 90222 74823 64024 57725 562
Annual percentage change3,83,53,63,63,73,93,93,93,94,04,0
Excise taxes and duties50 97852 45954 07555 81357 69759 73461 81763 95666 15568 44470 946
Annual percentage change2,92,93,13,23,43,53,53,53,43,53,7
Goods and services tax36 48637 66238 96040 37041 91343 58745 29347 04748 85950 74952 825
Annual percentage change3,33,23,43,63,84,03,93,93,93,94,1
Custom import duties3 3983 4013 4073 4143 4243 4373 4463 4563 4643 4713 487
Annual percentage change0,10,10,20,20,30,40,30,30,20,20,5
Other excise taxes and duties11 09411 39511 70912 02812 36112 71113 07713 45313 83214 22414 633
Annual percentage change2,82,72,72,72,82,82,92,92,82,82,9
Non-fiscal revenues10 35110 59610 92811 35511 77512 12112 39112 65012 91213 18413 470
Annual percentage change2,42,43,13,93,72,92,22,12,12,12,2
Investment revenues7 2857 4737 7468 1128 4678 7458 9439 1309 3199 5179 725
Annual percentage change2,62,63,64,74,43,32,32,12,12,12,2
Other non-fiscal revenues3 0663 1233 1823 2433 3083 3763 4483 5203 5933 6673 745
Annual percentage change1,91,81,91,92,02,12,12,12,12,12,1
Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change.
Shaded areas represent forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Department of Finance Canada.


TABLE 2A
Federal Government Expenditures

($ millions)
1997-981998-991999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09
Budgetary expenditures149 684152 787153 410161 442168 000175 342181 026186 777191 553196 683201 952207 050
Annual percentage change-0,12,10,45,24,14,43,23,22,62,72,72,5
Program spending108 753111 393111 763119 348128 800136 040139 614144 855149 621154 717160 198165 730
Annual percentage change3,82,40,36,87,95,62,63,83,33,43,53,5
Transfers to individuals34 06734 66534 71137 15939 30041 80541 90243 21344 58846 24047 95649 767
Annual percentage change0,21,80,17,15,86,40,23,13,23,73,73,8
Elderly benefits22 22522 78123 41024 25625 03526 07727 10028 04928 94629 95931 06332 287
Annual percentage change 2,52,83,63,24,23,93,53,23,53,73,9
Employment insurance benefits11 84211 88411 30111 44414 26515 72814 80215 16415 64316 28116 89317 480
Annual percentage change-4,30,4-4,91,326,510,3-5,92,43,24,13,83,5
Other transfers to individuals0001 45900000000

Transfers to other governments

20 504

25 523

23 243

24 724

27 200

28 868

30 095

31 633

32 618

33 656

34 719

35 766
Annual percentage change-7,524,5-8,96,410,06,14,35,13,13,23,23,0
CHST12 42116 01814 89113 50017 30018 60019 30020 40021 00021 62322 21522 802
Annual percentage change-16,729,0-7,0-9,328,17,53,85,72,93,02,72,6
Fiscal arrangements10 00011 64510 72112 68412 35412 78713 42813 94914 45515 00315 60816 196
Annual percentage change6,216,4-7,918,3-2,63,55,03,93,63,84,03,8
Alternative payments for standing programs-2 108-2 150-2 425-2 460-2 454-2 519-2 633-2 717-2 837-2 970-3 105-3 233
Annual percentage change4,72,012,81,4-0,32,74,53,24,44,74,54,1
Other transfers to other governments19110561 00000000000

Direct program spending

54 182

51 205

53 809

57 465

62 300

65 367

67 617

70 009

72 414

74 821

77 523

80 197
Annual percentage change11,3-5,55,16,88,44,93,43,53,43,33,63,4
Public debt charges40 93141 39441 64742 09439 20039 30241 41241 92241 93241 96641 75441 320
Annual percentage change-9,01,10,61,1-6,90,35,41,20,00,1-0,5-1,0
Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change.
Shaded areas represent forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Department of Finance Canada.


TABLE 2A
Federal Government Expenditures

($ millions)
2009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-20
Budgetary expenditures212 003216 814222 140227 970233 543238 508242 922246 925250 372253 501256 239
Annual percentage change2,42,32,52,62,42,11,91,61,41,21,1
Program spending171 381177 176183 402190 098197 081204 349211 970219 845227 828236 202244 991
Annual percentage change3,43,43,53,73,73,73,73,73,63,73,7
Transfers to individuals51 63553 60355 82958 33060 83663 41866 15469 01071 92274 94778 141
Annual percentage change3,83,84,24,54,34,24,34,34,24,24,3
Elderly benefits33 54534 84136 35638 16139 98941 87443 86545 94648 10950 41852 915
Annual percentage change3,93,94,35,04,84,74,84,74,74,85,0
Employment insurance benefits18 09018 76219 47320 16820 84721 54422 28923 06323 81224 52925 226
Annual percentage change3,53,73,83,63,43,33,53,53,23,02,8
Other transfers to individuals00000000000

Transfers to other governments

36 840

37 949

39 096

40 297

41 574

42 900

44 276

45 674

47 092

48 605

50 191
Annual percentage change3,03,03,03,13,23,23,23,23,13,23,3
CHST23 40124 03724 69725 38926 11526 86627 63528 40229 19430 04130 932
Annual percentage change2,62,72,72,82,92,92,92,82,82,93,0
Fiscal arrangements16 79617 39718 02718 69419 41420 16520 94621 75522 56823 42924 328
Annual percentage change3,73,63,63,73,93,93,93,93,73,83,8
Alternative payments for standing programs-3 357-3 485-3 628-3 786-3 955-4 130-4 305-4 483-4 670-4 865-5 069
Annual percentage change3,83,84,14,44,54,44,24,14,24,24,2
Other transfers to other governments00000000000

Direct program spending

82 906

85 625

88 477

91 471

94 671

98 031

101 541

105 161

108 814

112 650

116 659
Annual percentage change3,43,33,33,43,53,53,63,63,53,53,6
Public debt charges40 62239 63838 73837 87236 46234 15830 95327 08022 54517 30011 248
Annual percentage change-1,7-2,4-2,3-2,2-3,7-6,3-9,4-12,5-16,7-23,3-35,0
Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change.
Shaded areas represent forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Department of Finance Canada.


TABLE 2B
Budgetary Balance and Debt of the Federal Government

($ millions)
1997-981998-991999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09
Budgetary revenues153 162155 671165 708178 590174 000178 647185 635189 547195 967203 606211 678219 934
Annual percentage change8,71,66,47,8-2,62,73,92,13,43,94,03,9
Program spending108 753111 393111 763119 348128 800136 040139 614144 855149 621154 717160 198165 730
Annual percentage change3,82,40,36,87,95,62,63,83,33,43,53,5
Operating balance44 40944 27853 94559 24245 20042 60746 02144 69246 34648 88951 48054 203
Annual percentage change23,1-0,321,89,8-23,7-5,78,0-2,93,75,55,35,3
Public debt charges40 93141 39441 64742 09439 20039 30241 41241 92241 93241 96641 75441 320
Annual percentage change-9,01,10,61,1-6,90,35,41,20,00,1-0,5-1,0
Budgetary balance3 4782 88412 29817 1486 0003 3054 6092 7704 4146 9239 72712 883
Budgetary balance as a percentage of GDP0,40,31,21,60,50,30,40,20,30,50,70,9
Net public debt579 708576 824564 526547 378541 378538 073533 464530 694526 280519 357509 631496 747
Annual percentage change-0,6-0,5-2,1-3,0-1,1-0,6-0,9-0,5-0,8-1,3-1,9-2,5
Interest-bearing debt594 825594 985597 932589 232586 411583 106578 497575 727571 313564 390554 664541 780
Annual percentage change-1,00,00,5-1,5-0,5-0,6-0,8-0,5-0,8-1,2-1,7-2,3
Other liabilities43 70045 31640 74843 64438 27039 42941 70646 51150 74452 51954 45056 421
Annual percentage change9,03,7-10,17,1-12,33,05,811,59,13,53,73,6
Total assets58 81763 47774 15485 49883 30384 46286 73991 54495 77797 55299 483101 454
Annual percentage change2,37,916,815,3-2,61,42,75,54,61,92,02,0
Per capita net debt ($)19 31319 05418 49217 77217 40817 16916 89016 67316 41016 07415 65615 148
Annual percentage change-1,6-1,3-2,9-3,9-2,0-1,4-1,6-1,3-1,6-2,1-2,6-3,2
Net debt as a percentage of GDP65,062,356,350,649,546,743,841,839,837,735,433,1
Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change.
Shaded areas represent forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Department of Finance Canada.


TABLE 2B
Budgetary Balance and Debt of the Federal Government

($ millions)
2009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-20
Budgetary revenues228 249236 621245 844256 109267 137278 625290 474302 619314 787327 831341 694
Annual percentage change3,83,73,94,24,34,34,34,24,04,14,2
Program spending171 381177 176183 402190 098197 081204 349211 970219 845227 828236 202244 991
Annual percentage change3,43,43,53,73,73,73,73,73,63,73,7
Operating balance56 86859 44562 44266 01170 05674 27578 50482 77486 95991 63096 704
Annual percentage change4,94,55,05,76,16,05,75,45,15,45,5
Public debt charges40 62239 63838 73837 87236 46234 15830 95327 08022 54517 30011 248
Annual percentage change-1,7-2,4-2,3-2,2-3,7-6,3-9,4-12,5-16,7-23,3-35,0
Budgetary balance16 24719 80723 70428 13933 59440 11747 55155 69464 41474 33085 455
Budgetary balance as a percentage of GDP1,01,21,41,61,82,12,42,73,03,33,6
Net public debt480 501460 694436 990408 851375 257335 140287 589231 894167 48093 1507 695
Annual percentage change-3,3-4,1-5,1-6,4-8,2-10,7-14,2-19,4-27,8-44,4-91,7
Interest-bearing debt525 534505 727482 023453 884420 290380 173332 622276 927212 513138 18352 728
Annual percentage change-3,0-3,8-4,7-5,8-7,4-9,5-12,5-16,7-23,3-35,0-61,8
Other liabilities58 43260 56262 77765 02867 32169 66772 06674 50577 04779 72682 485
Annual percentage change3,63,63,73,63,53,53,43,43,43,53,5
Total assets103 465105 595107 810110 061112 354114 700117 099119 538122 080124 759127 518
Annual percentage change2,02,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,22,2
Per capita net debt ($)14 54613 84513 03812 11111 0359 7858 3366 6734 7852 642217
Annual percentage change-4,0-4,8-5,8-7,1-8,9-11,3-14,8-19,9-28,3-44,8-91,8
Net debt as a percentage of GDP30,828,425,923,320,517,514,411,17,74,10,3
Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change.
Shaded areas represent forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Department of Finance Canada.


TABLE 3
Provincial/Territorial Government Revenues

($ millions)
1997-981998-991999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09
Total revenues158 729166 691180 801195 871189 207198 023206 856213 041219 487226 573235 399244 079
Annual percentage change 5,08,58,3-3,44,74,53,03,03,23,93,7
Own-source revenues135 003140 481153 846166 595156 072163 305170 775175 740181 018187 219194 777202 206
Annual percentage change7,44,19,58,3-6,34,64,62,93,03,44,03,8
Personal income taxes45 58548 53450 66951 76650 51051 13453 55055 51358 09260 86363 39265 885
Annual percentage change4,06,54,42,2-2,41,24,73,74,64,84,23,9
Corporate taxes18 50318 34119 06522 14720 10723 14424 71724 18423 41623 09223 91224 689
Annual percentage change15,0-0,93,916,2-9,215,16,8-2,2-3,2-1,43,63,2
Retail sales taxes23 00324 80826 50928 50628 88230 01931 00832 35333 76035 24036 99338 721
Annual percentage change4,47,86,97,51,33,93,34,34,34,45,04,7
Other revenues47 91248 79857 60364 17756 57359 00961 50063 69065 75068 02370 48072 911
Annual percentage change9,41,818,011,4-11,84,34,23,63,23,53,63,4
Principal transfers from Government of Canada23 72626 21026 95529 27533 13534 71836 08137 30138 47039 35440 62241 873
Annual percentage change 10,52,88,613,24,83,93,43,12,33,23,1
CHST12 40212 47114 24115 53818 84319 28519 95020 55021 15021 62322 21522 802
Annual percentage change 0,614,29,121,32,33,43,02,92,22,72,6
Fiscal arrangements9 52011 95710 86212 14912 00112 97413 61414 13614 64215 00315 60816 196
Annual percentage change 25,6-9,211,8-1,28,14,93,83,62,54,03,8
Alternative payments for standing programs-2 108-2 150-2 425-2 460-2 454-2 519-2 633-2 717-2 837-2 970-3 105-3 233
Annual percentage change 2,012,81,4-0,22,64,53,24,44,74,54,1
Other transfers from Government of Canada*3 9123 9324 2774 0484 7454 9785 1495 3325 5155 6985 9046 108
Annual percentage change 0,58,8-5,317,24,93,43,53,43,33,63,4
Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change.
Shaded areas represent forecast data.
* Transfers not recorded as direct transfers to other levels of government by the Government of Canada, but which are recorded as transfers in the Public Accounts of the provincial/territorial governments.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Provincial/Territorial Departments of Finance.


TABLE 3
Provincial/Territorial Government Revenues

($ millions)
2009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-20
Total revenues252 976262 047271 563281 851292 916304 587316 945329 734342 693356 587371 250
Annual percentage change3,63,63,63,83,94,04,14,03,94,14,1
Own-source revenues209 822217 578225 729234 588244 133254 221264 936276 051287 314299 403312 175
Annual percentage change3,83,73,73,94,14,14,24,24,14,24,3
Personal income taxes68 29870 98473 87377 12380 64684 36288 12591 97096 100100 475105 084
Annual percentage change3,73,94,14,44,64,64,54,44,54,64,6
Corporate taxes25 77326 80827 90529 19830 62432 10433 85335 73237 31239 22241 292
Annual percentage change4,44,04,14,64,94,85,45,64,45,15,3
Retail sales taxes40 37741 94043 51245 10646 79248 63150 64352 74254 97457 29159 740
Annual percentage change4,33,93,73,73,73,94,14,14,24,24,3
Other revenues75 37477 84580 43983 16186 07089 12492 31595 60798 928102 415106 060
Annual percentage change3,43,33,33,43,53,53,63,63,53,53,6
Principal transfers from Government of Canada43 15444 46945 83447 26348 78450 36652 00853 68355 37957 18459 075
Annual percentage change3,13,03,13,13,23,23,33,23,23,33,3
CHST23 40124 03724 69725 38926 11526 86627 63528 40229 19430 04130 932
Annual percentage change2,62,72,72,82,92,92,92,82,82,93,0
Fiscal arrangements16 79617 39718 02718 69419 41420 16520 94621 75522 56823 42924 328
Annual percentage change3,73,63,63,73,93,93,93,93,73,83,8
Alternative payments for standing programs-3 357-3 485-3 628-3 786-3 955-4 130-4 305-4 483-4 670-4 865-5 069
Annual percentage change3,83,84,14,44,54,44,24,14,24,24,2
Other transfers from Government of Canada*6 3146 5216 7386 9667 2107 4667 7338 0098 2878 5798 884
Annual percentage change3,43,33,33,43,53,53,63,63,53,53,6
Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change.
Shaded areas represent forecast data.
* Transfers not recorded as direct transfers to other levels of government by the Government of Canada, but which are recorded as transfers in the Public Accounts of the provincial/territorial governments.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Provincial/Territorial Departments of Finance.


TABLE 3A
Provincial/Territorial Government Expenditures, Budgetary Balance and Net Debt

($ millions)
1997-981998-991999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09
Total expenditures162 000168 315177 849182 126190 998198 584207 303215 403223 134231 476240 438249 694
Annual percentage change2,83,95,72,44,94,04,43,93,63,73,93,8
Program spending140 453146 420155 752159 682169 624176 664184 025191 608198 996206 786215 102223 697
Annual percentage change2,24,26,42,56,24,24,24,13,93,94,04,0
Health51 34754 91459 40663 53368 35171 56475 14279 00982 96087 12991 59696 344
Annual percentage change 6,98,26,97,64,75,05,15,05,05,15,2
Share of total revenues 32,932,932,436,136,136,337,137,838,538,939,5
Education34 21036 46438 33738 14441 45442 94644 31245 65846 86648 26649 74951 235
Annual percentage change 6,65,1-0,58,73,63,23,02,63,03,13,0
Share of total revenues 21,921,219,521,921,721,421,421,421,321,121,0
Social services20 06419 81219 64920 05220 98121 65022 27122 89423 45124 08324 74125 411
Annual percentage change1,0-1,3-0,82,04,63,22,92,82,42,72,72,7
Other program spending34 83235 23038 36037 95338 83840 50442 30144 04845 72047 30849 01650 707
Annual percentage change3,51,18,9-1,12,34,34,44,13,83,53,63,4
Debt service21 54821 89422 09722 44421 37421 91923 27823 79524 13724 69025 33625 998
Annual percentage change6,81,60,91,6-4,82,66,22,21,42,32,62,6
Other adjustements-555-590-221-1 7321 4280000000
Operating balance18 27620 27125 04936 18819 58321 35822 83121 43320 49119 78720 29720 383
Annual percentage change 10,923,644,5-45,99,16,9-6,1-4,4-3,42,60,4
Budgetary balance-3 826-2 2132 73112 013-364-561-447-2 362-3 646-4 903-5 039-5 615
Annual percentage change -42,1-223,4339,8-103,054,2-20,2428,054,434,52,811,4
Budgetary balance as a percentage of GDP-0,4-0,20,31,10,00,00,0-0,2-0,3-0,4-0,4-0,4
Net debt257 649261 279261 212251 503252 913253 474253 921256 284259 930264 833269 872275 487
Annual percentage change 1,40,0-3,70,60,20,20,91,41,91,92,1
Per capita net debt ($)8 5838 6318 5578 1668 1328 0888 0398 0528 1058 1968 2918 401
Net debt as a percentage of GDP28,928,226,123,323,122,020,920,219,719,218,818,4
Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change.
Shaded areas represent forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Provincial/Territorial Departments of Finance.


TABLE 3A
Provincial/Territorial Government Expenditures, Budgetary Balance and Net Debt

($ millions)
2009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-20
Total expenditures259 240269 146279 883291 421303 491315 748328 196341 045354 346368 539383 521
Annual percentage change3,83,84,04,14,14,03,93,93,94,04,1
Program spending232 529241 666251 271261 229271 627282 399293 613305 279317 391330 359344 085
Annual percentage change3,93,94,04,04,04,04,04,04,04,14,2
Health101 356106 687112 296118 110124 141130 409136 982143 807150 872158 455166 487
Annual percentage change5,25,35,35,25,15,05,05,04,95,05,1
Share of total revenues40,140,741,441,942,442,843,243,644,044,444,8
Education52 67254 08655 57557 09858 67760 25061 82463 50965 36767 42069 632
Annual percentage change2,82,72,82,72,82,72,62,72,93,13,3
Share of total revenues20,820,620,520,320,019,819,519,319,118,918,8
Social services26 08126 75427 45728 18528 95029 75830 60631 47232 35133 25834 205
Annual percentage change2,62,62,62,72,72,82,82,82,82,82,8
Other program spending52 42054 13955 94257 83559 85961 98364 20266 49168 80171 22673 761
Annual percentage change3,43,33,33,43,53,53,63,63,53,53,6
Debt service26 71027 48028 61130 19331 86533 34934 58335 76636 95538 18039 436
Annual percentage change2,72,94,15,55,54,73,73,43,33,33,3
Other adjustements00000000000
Operating balance20 44720 38220 29220 62321 29022 18823 33124 45425 30326 22827 166
Annual percentage change0,3-0,3-0,41,63,24,25,24,83,53,73,6
Budgetary balance-6 264-7 099-8 319-9 570-10 575-11 161-11 252-11 312-11 653-11 952-12 270
Annual percentage change11,613,317,215,010,55,50,80,53,02,62,7
Budgetary balance as a percentage of GDP-0,4-0,4-0,5-0,5-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5
Net debt281 750288 849297 169306 739317 314328 475339 726351 038362 691374 642386 913
Annual percentage change2,32,52,93,23,43,53,43,33,33,33,3
Per capita net debt ($)8 5298 6818 8669 0869 3319 5909 84710 10110 36110 62510 894
Net debt as a percentage of GDP18,117,817,617,417,317,217,016,916,716,616,4
Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change.
Shaded areas represent forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Provincial/Territorial Departments of Finance.


TABLE 4
Provincial/Territorial Government Per Capita Health Expenditures by Age Cohort
1997-981998-991999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09
Per capita health expenditures ($)1 7111 8141 9462 0632 1982 2842 3792 4822 5872 6972 8142 938
Annual percentage change1,06,07,36,06,53,94,24,34,24,24,34,4
Aged 0 to 147397988719119579771 0001 0261 0501 0751 1021 130
Annual percentage change3,38,09,14,65,02,12,32,62,42,42,52,5
Aged 15 to 249389681 0361 0911 1561 1961 2411 2881 3331 3811 4311 485
Annual percentage change1,23,37,05,36,03,53,73,83,53,63,73,8
Aged 25 to 341 0471 1201 2241 2761 3301 3571 3901 4261 4611 4981 5371 578
Annual percentage change2,37,09,44,24,22,02,42,62,52,52,62,7
Aged 35 to 449049531 0211 0651 1151 1391 1651 1931 2191 2461 2761 309
Annual percentage change2,05,47,14,24,72,12,32,42,22,22,42,6
Aged 45 to 541 1871 2471 3171 3781 4531 4961 5411 5891 6351 6821 7331 787
Annual percentage change2,05,15,64,65,53,03,03,12,92,93,13,1
Aged 55 to 641 9612 0782 2022 3022 4202 4732 5482 6312 7092 7912 8772 968
Annual percentage change3,16,06,04,55,22,23,03,33,03,03,13,2
Aged 65 to 744 2614 5224 8475 1215 4455 6315 8366 0556 2736 4916 7226 958
Annual percentage change-0,36,17,25,66,33,43,63,83,63,53,63,5
Aged 75 to 847 7648 0868 4888 9739 5439 89010 27710 70811 14011 57612 04212 527
Annual percentage change-2,94,25,05,76,43,63,94,24,03,94,04,0
Aged 85 and Over15 64715 95116 42317 39718 62919 22219 89220 56721 11021 73422 42923 226
Annual percentage change-3,61,93,05,97,13,23,53,42,63,03,23,6
Aged 65 and Over6 5156 8427 2627 7408 2968 6399 0099 4019 80310 21010 63211 045
Annual percentage change-1,55,06,16,67,24,14,34,44,34,14,13,9
Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change.
Shaded areas represent forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Health Canada; Canadian Institute for Health Information.


TABLE 4
Provincial/Territorial Government Per Capita Health Expenditures by Age Cohort

($ millions)
2009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-20
Per capita health expenditures ($)3 0683 2063 3513 4993 6513 8073 9704 1384 3104 4944 688
Annual percentage change4,44,54,54,44,34,34,34,24,24,34,3
Aged 0 to 141 1601 1921 2241 2551 2861 3181 3501 3841 4181 4551 492
Annual percentage change2,62,82,82,52,52,52,42,52,52,62,6
Aged 15 to 241 5421 6021 6641 7261 7901 8561 9271 9952 0622 1322 205
Annual percentage change3,83,93,93,83,73,73,83,53,43,43,4
Aged 25 to 341 6221 6701 7191 7671 8161 8651 9151 9662 0172 0722 129
Annual percentage change2,83,02,92,82,72,72,72,62,62,72,8
Aged 35 to 441 3431 3771 4111 4441 4801 5161 5551 5941 6321 6731 716
Annual percentage change2,62,52,52,42,42,52,52,52,42,52,6
Aged 45 to 541 8441 9061 9702 0342 0972 1592 2232 2882 3542 4252 498
Annual percentage change3,23,43,43,23,13,03,02,92,93,03,0
Aged 55 to 643 0613 1593 2653 3743 4753 5783 6833 7893 8994 0114 131
Annual percentage change3,13,23,33,33,03,02,92,92,92,93,0
Aged 65 to 747 2117 4877 7648 0158 3058 6138 9279 2459 5659 90110 241
Annual percentage change3,63,83,73,23,63,73,63,63,53,53,4
Aged 75 to 8413 04513 57814 12314 66815 21115 76316 34316 91117 48718 07118 698
Annual percentage change4,14,14,03,93,73,63,73,53,43,33,5
Aged 85 and Over24 05024 92725 84126 75827 66428 60329 53630 48331 46232 50533 607
Annual percentage change3,53,63,73,63,43,43,33,23,23,33,4
Aged 65 and Over11 46611 90612 33512 69113 07413 47913 90014 33014 76615 22615 691
Annual percentage change3,83,83,62,93,03,13,13,13,03,13,1
Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change.
Shaded areas represent forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Health Canada; Canadian Institute for Health Information.


TABLE 5
Provincial/Territorial Education Spending by Sector and Per Student and Enrolments by Sector
1997-981998-991999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09
Total education spending ($ millions)31 94136 62539 50339 61941 15442 63643 99245 32846 52747 91749 38950 864
Annual percentage change1,714,77,90,33,93,63,23,02,63,03,13,0
School boards20 38624 00524 43524 90225 85226 74327 52928 27728 92129 69230 52031 357
Annual percentage change0,917,81,81,93,83,42,92,72,32,72,82,7
Colleges3 4563 5263 9223 6603 7953 9304 0564 2084 3694 5514 7444 922
Annual percentage change3,42,011,3-6,73,73,63,23,73,84,24,23,8
Universities6 6946 9317 8187 5517 9228 2918 6599 0209 3509 71110 08210 463
Annual percentage change6,33,512,8-3,44,94,74,44,23,73,93,83,8
Other expenditures1 4062 1643 3283 5073 5853 6713 7483 8233 8873 9634 0424 123
Annual percentage change-10,054,053,85,42,22,42,12,01,71,92,02,0
Enrolments (000s)6 6306 6206 6496 6776 7046 6976 6826 6616 6366 6166 5996 578
Annual percentage change-0,5-0,20,40,40,4-0,1-0,2-0,3-0,4-0,3-0,3-0,3
School boards5 3175 2995 3145 3305 3455 3315 3095 2795 2455 2165 1905 163
Annual percentage change-0,6-0,30,30,30,3-0,3-0,4-0,6-0,7-0,6-0,5-0,5
Colleges490495498501503504505509515521527531
Annual percentage change1,21,00,60,50,50,20,20,71,21,21,20,8
Universities823826837847856861868873877880882884
Annual percentage change-0,80,41,31,11,10,60,80,60,40,30,20,2
Education spending per student ($)4 8185 5335 9415 9346 1396 3676 5846 8057 0117 2427 4847 733
Annual percentage change2,214,87,4-0,13,53,73,43,43,03,33,33,3
School boards3 8344 5304 5984 6724 8375 0165 1855 3565 5145 6935 8816 074
Annual percentage change1,518,21,51,63,53,73,43,33,03,23,33,3
Colleges7 0497 1237 8757 3117 5437 7988 0358 2738 4908 7378 9969 261
Annual percentage change2,21,010,6-7,23,23,43,03,02,62,93,03,0
Universities8 1368 3879 3388 9199 2569 6259 97510 33210 66411 03911 43311 839
Annual percentage change7,23,111,3-4,53,84,03,63,63,23,53,63,6
Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change.
Shaded areas represent forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.


TABLE 5
Provincial/Territorial Education Spending by Sector and Per Student and Enrolments by Sector

($ millions)
2009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-20
Total education spending ($ millions)52 29153 69555 17456 68558 25359 81461 37863 05064 89566 93369 129
Annual percentage change2,82,72,82,72,82,72,62,72,93,13,3
School boards32 11932 82333 57234 36935 25036 20837 22538 34439 67941 16742 783
Annual percentage change2,42,22,32,42,62,72,83,03,53,73,9
Colleges5 0595 1685 2665 3185 3685 4155 4595 5355 6735 8446 039
Annual percentage change2,82,11,91,00,90,90,81,42,53,03,3
Universities10 91011 42211 96812 54413 09313 55713 96414 34314 61514 88915 165
Annual percentage change4,34,74,84,84,43,53,02,71,91,91,9
Other expenditures4 2034 2834 3684 4544 5424 6344 7294 8274 9275 0335 141
Annual percentage change1,91,92,02,02,02,02,12,12,12,12,2
Enrolments (000s)6 5446 5016 4586 4176 3806 3416 2996 2676 2546 2536 261
Annual percentage change-0,5-0,7-0,7-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,7-0,5-0,20,00,1
School boards5 1235 0735 0254 9824 9474 9194 8934 8774 8824 8974 919
Annual percentage change-0,8-1,0-0,9-0,9-0,7-0,6-0,5-0,30,10,30,5
Colleges531527522512502492481474471471472
Annual percentage change-0,1-0,7-1,0-1,9-1,9-2,0-2,1-1,6-0,5-0,10,2
Universities890901912923931930925916901885869
Annual percentage change0,71,21,21,20,80,0-0,6-0,9-1,7-1,8-1,8
Education spending per student ($)7 9918 2608 5438 8349 1319 4339 74310 06110 37710 70411 042
Annual percentage change3,33,43,43,43,43,33,33,33,13,23,2
School boards6 2706 4716 6826 8997 1257 3617 6077 8638 1288 4068 697
Annual percentage change3,23,23,33,33,33,33,33,43,43,43,5
Colleges9 5309 80310 09010 38510 69011 00811 34011 68312 03912 41112 798
Annual percentage change2,92,92,92,92,93,03,03,03,03,13,1
Universities12 25412 67813 12613 58914 07114 57515 10215 65016 22116 82017 447
Annual percentage change3,53,53,53,53,53,63,63,63,63,73,7
Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change.
Shaded areas represent forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.


TABLE 6
Population by Age and Gender Cohort (Percentage of Total Population) - Canada
1997-981998-991999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09
Males49,4049,4349,4349,4149,4049,4149,4149,4149,4149,4149,2149,09
Females50,3550,3750,3650,3650,3650,3950,4050,4050,4150,4150,6050,73

Aged 0 to 14

19,91

19,66

19,36

19,05

18,75

18,50

18,25

17,96

17,64

17,32

17,01

16,74
Males10,2110,089,939,779,629,499,369,229,058,888,738,59
Females9,709,589,439,289,149,018,898,758,598,438,288,15

Aged 15 to 24

13,49

13,48

13,49

13,49

13,47

13,43

13,38

13,36

13,37

13,37

13,37

13,35
Males6,906,906,916,916,906,886,856,846,846,846,856,84
Females6,586,586,586,586,576,556,536,526,526,526,536,51

Aged 25 to 34

15,51

15,02

14,58

14,27

14,10

13,97

13,86

13,77

13,69

13,63

13,61

13,62
Males7,847,607,387,227,147,077,026,986,956,926,916,91
Females7,677,437,217,056,976,906,836,796,756,726,706,71

Aged 35 to 44

17,00

17,18

17,24

17,21

17,07

16,81

16,50

16,18

15,86

15,52

15,16

14,75
Males8,518,618,658,648,588,458,298,147,987,827,447,10
Females8,498,578,598,568,498,368,208,047,877,707,727,65

Aged 45 to 54

13,08

13,42

13,77

14,14

14,44

14,61

14,82

15,05

15,28

15,52

15,71

15,88
Males6,536,696,877,057,207,297,397,507,627,747,847,94
Females6,556,726,907,097,247,337,437,547,667,777,867,94

Aged 55 to 64

8,60

8,75

8,93

9,12

9,36

9,80

10,20

10,56

10,92

11,26

11,58

11,88
Males4,244,314,404,494,614,825,025,205,375,545,705,84
Females4,364,444,534,634,754,985,185,375,555,725,886,04

Aged 65 to 74

7,02

7,02

6,98

6,93

6,89

6,87

6,86

6,87

6,89

6,93

7,01

7,15
Males3,243,263,263,253,243,243,243,253,263,293,323,39
Females3,783,763,723,683,653,633,623,623,623,653,693,76

Aged 75 to 84

3,96

4,05

4,14

4,22

4,30

4,38

4,46

4,52

4,55

4,58

4,59

4,60
Males1,571,611,651,681,721,761,801,841,871,891,911,93
Females2,392,452,492,542,582,622,662,682,692,692,682,67

Aged 85 and Over

1,19

1,23

1,29

1,34

1,38

1,43

1,48

1,53

1,61

1,69

1,77

1,84
Males0,360,370,390,400,410,420,430,440,460,490,510,53
Females0,830,860,900,940,981,021,051,091,151,211,261,31

Aged 65 and Over

12,17

12,30

12,40

12,50

12,58

12,68

12,80

12,92

13,05

13,20

13,37

13,59
Males5,175,245,295,335,375,425,475,535,595,665,755,86
Females7,007,077,117,167,217,277,337,397,467,547,627,73
Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change.
Shaded areas represent forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.


TABLE 6
Population by Age and Gender Cohort (Percentage of Total Population) - Canada
2009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-20
Males48,9948,9448,9348,9749,0249,0849,1549,2249,3149,4149,51
Females50,8250,8750,8850,8450,7950,7350,6650,5950,5050,3950,29

Aged 0 to 14

16,50

16,28

16,07

15,94

15,85

15,79

15,75

15,70

15,66

15,63

15,60
Males8,478,358,258,188,148,108,088,068,048,028,01
Females8,037,927,827,767,717,687,667,647,627,607,59

Aged 15 to 24

13,30

13,23

13,16

13,04

12,89

12,69

12,43

12,19

11,96

11,75

11,57
Males6,816,786,746,686,606,506,376,246,126,025,92
Females6,496,466,436,366,296,196,075,955,835,735,64

Aged 25 to 34

13,64

13,63

13,62

13,60

13,58

13,58

13,60

13,62

13,64

13,64

13,61
Males6,926,926,926,906,896,896,906,916,926,916,90
Females6,726,716,716,706,696,696,706,716,726,726,71

Aged 35 to 44

14,37

14,08

13,91

13,81

13,73

13,67

13,63

13,59

13,60

13,62

13,66
Males6,816,616,526,506,516,546,586,626,706,816,93
Females7,567,477,397,317,227,147,056,976,896,816,73

Aged 45 to 54

15,98

15,98

15,88

15,67

15,41

15,15

14,88

14,59

14,28

13,94

13,61
Males8,008,017,967,867,747,617,487,347,197,026,86
Females7,987,977,917,807,677,547,397,257,096,926,76

Aged 55 to 64

12,22

12,57

12,86

13,03

13,23

13,45

13,67

13,89

14,06

14,23

14,33
Males6,016,186,336,416,526,636,746,856,957,047,10
Females6,216,396,536,626,726,826,937,037,127,197,23

Aged 65 to 74

7,32

7,50

7,73

8,10

8,45

8,76

9,06

9,35

9,62

9,88

10,16
Males3,483,563,673,854,024,174,324,464,604,724,86
Females3,853,944,054,254,424,584,744,885,025,165,30

Aged 75 to 84

4,59

4,58

4,57

4,57

4,58

4,61

4,64

4,69

4,76

4,88

5,01
Males1,941,951,961,971,982,002,022,042,082,142,21
Females2,642,632,612,602,602,612,622,642,682,742,81

Aged 85 and Over

1,90

1,96

2,01

2,05

2,09

2,12

2,16

2,19

2,22

2,24

2,25
Males0,550,570,590,610,630,650,670,680,700,720,73
Females1,351,381,421,441,461,481,491,511,521,521,52

Aged 65 and Over

13,81

14,03

14,31

14,72

15,12

15,49

15,86

16,23

16,60

17,00

17,43
Males5,976,096,236,436,636,827,007,197,387,587,79
Females7,847,958,088,298,498,678,859,039,229,429,63
Unless indicated otherwise, for each indicator the first line represents the level and the second, the annual percentage change.
Shaded areas represent forecast data.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

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